What Dynasty RBs do you covet? (1 Viewer)

[northern exposure]

Ray Rice is tricky in dynasties. Sure, he's putting up huge numbers now, but what Cam Cameron running backs haven't?

The biggest issue with Rice is that RBs seem to see their receptions drop drastically when Cameron leaves town, and receptions are a huge part of Rice's value.

If Flacco is still the QB, I just dont foresee a problem.The chemistry has been established between the two and its known to be effective.

One player who I haven't seen mentioned yet is Kevin Smith. He's in his 2nd year, given 15-20 carries a game along with goaline, and will be able to mature along with the Lions. He's being overlooked by a lot of people right now. While he may never be considered a top 5 "elite" player, he has the talent and situation to be a consistent top 10 RB for many teams. Smith's value is probably below some of the other players mentioned like Moreno and McCoy. With Stafford, CJ, and Brandon Pettigrew around him in Detroit, they have young weapons who will demand attention from defenses. Teams won't be able to stack 8 in the box against them. I'd try to get him whenever possible.

I don't like Kevin Smith. He's a middling talent on a terrible team. Job security alone is enough to make him a quality piece in dynasty leagues, but still a very fungible piece.

I haven't seen Tashard Choice mentioned yet. His rise to success may take longer than most of ther other RBs mentioned in this thread because Barber and Jones are in front of him. But, in my opoinion, when the payoff comes from owning this guy, it will be huge.

Darren Sproles could be a good guy to have on your roster depending where he signs in 2010. Danny Ware could take over from Bradshaw with the Giants as well.

Sproles is another guy I don't like. He doesn't have the skillset to ever take on a big enough workload to be a fantasy force in any league outside of return yardage leagues.Choice is a nice high-upside player to acquire on the cheap, if his owner will sell him cheap. Ware is another interesting name. I'd be interested in grabbing either as a lottery ticket, but I wouldn't mortgage the farm to do so.

What in your opnion is Sproles lacking? I'm not disagreeing with you, I'm just looking for your input.Obviously he doesn't have the size of a prototypical bellcow NFL back, but I think the Chargers' offensive scheme holds him back. I'm never going to say he can be a feature RB in the league, but I think if he is used properly in a thunder and lightning RB tandem he could be at least a great flex option, if not a RB2.

The Chargers have been fiercely loyal to LT2 this season even though he is a shadow of his former self. I would love to see them split the carries evenly for one game.

 

[GreatLakesMike]

Kevin Smith has put up some pretty good #'s in his first two years for an average talent on a terrible team. Smith's rushing average is down this year, but Detroit's line is terrible, they're starting a rookie QB, and their best player (Calvin) has missed time. It's been pretty easy to stack the box against Detroit this year.

Smith has decent speed, cuts on a dime, and is a great receiver out of the backfield. He's not AP, but he's far from an average talent IMO.

 

[Team Legacy]

With the understanding that Chris Johnson, AD, DWill, Ray Rice, Gore and MJD are all untouchable, here's my list:

Rashard Mendenhall - The long term answer in Pitt. Just the type of player that offense needs.

LeSean McCoy - Buy low before his breakout game. The starting RB in Philly is fantasy Gold.

Kevin Smith - I think the offense will improve with the new leadership. Give it another year to see Top 10 numbers.

Beanie Wells - LOVE what he's doing, but I don't see Hightower going anywhere anytime soon.

Pierre Thomas - Great time to steal LOW with Mike Bell still in the picture.

Donald Brown - Looks great running the ball.

In that order.

If it weren't for injury concerns, I'd have Stewy and Felix in there too.

 

[northern exposure]

With the understanding that Chris Johnson, AD, DWill, Ray Rice, Gore and MJD are all untouchable, here's my list:

Rashard Mendenhall - The long term answer in Pitt. Just the type of player that offense needs.

LeSean McCoy - Buy low before his breakout game. The starting RB in Philly is fantasy Gold.

Kevin Smith - I think the offense will improve with the new leadership. Give it another year to see Top 10 numbers.

Beanie Wells - LOVE what he's doing, but I don't see Hightower going anywhere anytime soon.

Pierre Thomas - Great time to steal LOW with Mike Bell still in the picture.

Donald Brown - Looks great running the ball.

In that order.

If it weren't for injury concerns, I'd have Stewy and Felix in there too.

I agree about McCoy. But with Westbrook's concussion concerns that ship may have already sailed. Anybody that saw him run vs the Bears had to come away impressed.I'm still not sold on Mendenhall as the long term answer in Pittsburgh. I can see the Steelers letting Parker walk this off-season and looking for a more bruising RB for next season to team with Mendenhall and Moore.

 

[No Way Jose]

This is another question along similar lines, but what teams do you guys think will take a RB in the first or second round of the draft next year? This could tell you where some of the best values are. This could also tell you where a place you want to stay away from until after the draft.

For example: Justin Forcett looks like a pretty good value right now, but if the Seahawks took a back early like Dwyer, I think JF looses some value.

What if the Ravens took an RB in the first round draft next year to replace Mcgahee? What happens to Rice's value?

I think teams that invest an early pick on a RB are usually going to commit to them for a long time.

I guess the moral of the story is, I would wait until after the draft before I start making any wild trades for RB's, this late in the season. Unless it will obviously help me win this year.

 

[bigcorn]

This is another question along similar lines, but what teams do you guys think will take a RB in the first or second round of the draft next year? This could tell you where some of the best values are. This could also tell you where a place you want to stay away from until after the draft.

For example: Justin Forcett looks like a pretty good value right now, but if the Seahawks took a back early like Dwyer, I think JF looses some value.

What if the Ravens took an RB in the first round draft next year to replace Mcgahee? What happens to Rice's value?

I think teams that invest an early pick on a RB are usually going to commit to them for a long time.

I guess the moral of the story is, I would wait until after the draft before I start making any wild trades for RB's, this late in the season. Unless it will obviously help me win this year.

i'd say its a safe bet that the Ravens don't take a RB in the first round next year...

 

[Scooby1974]

How many of you guys can still trade? Our deadline has passed, so taking trade now is a moot point. Is a trade deadline in dynasty typical?

 

[lyon812]

This is another question along similar lines, but what teams do you guys think will take a RB in the first or second round of the draft next year? This could tell you where some of the best values are. This could also tell you where a place you want to stay away from until after the draft. For example: Justin Forcett looks like a pretty good value right now, but if the Seahawks took a back early like Dwyer, I think JF looses some value.What if the Ravens took an RB in the first round draft next year to replace Mcgahee? What happens to Rice's value?I think teams that invest an early pick on a RB are usually going to commit to them for a long time. I guess the moral of the story is, I would wait until after the draft before I start making any wild trades for RB's, this late in the season. Unless it will obviously help me win this year.

I don't see too many teams in the market for a first-round RB in 2010. Washington and San Diego sort of lead the pack. Miami might want one since Williams plans to retire in 2010, depending on Brown's healing from his Lisfranc. Seattle might if they decide to punt Jones and pair someone bigger with Forsett (Matthews or Gerhart might be good fits). Same with Houston.

 

[valence]

How many of you guys can still trade? Our deadline has passed, so taking trade now is a moot point. Is a trade deadline in dynasty typical?

Trade deadlines in my dynasty leagues fall somewhere between week 10 and week 13.

 

[SSOG]

What in your opnion is Sproles lacking? I'm not disagreeing with you, I'm just looking for your input.Obviously he doesn't have the size of a prototypical bellcow NFL back, but I think the Chargers' offensive scheme holds him back. I'm never going to say he can be a feature RB in the league, but I think if he is used properly in a thunder and lightning RB tandem he could be at least a great flex option, if not a RB2.The Chargers have been fiercely loyal to LT2 this season even though he is a shadow of his former self. I would love to see them split the carries evenly for one game.

Sproles is completely lacking in the ability to run the ball in traffic. He goes down at first contact, has little leg drive, isn't good at quickly picking and committing to a hole, etc. He's dynamic when he gets the ball in space, but featured RBs very rarely get the ball in space, and Sproles is woeful otherwise. He's a great CoP back and a quality NFL asset, but he's not ever going to be anything in fantasy other than a flex play or absolute desperation starter (except in return yardage leagues, as I said).You said it yourself- he could at least be a great flex option, if not a RB2. Your words, not mine. This thread is titled "Dynasty RBs you covet", not "Dynasty RBs you wouldn't mind rolling out in the flex if you didn't have anything better".

Kevin Smith has put up some pretty good #'s in his first two years for an average talent on a terrible team. Smith's rushing average is down this year, but Detroit's line is terrible, they're starting a rookie QB, and their best player (Calvin) has missed time. It's been pretty easy to stack the box against Detroit this year. Smith has decent speed, cuts on a dime, and is a great receiver out of the backfield. He's not AP, but he's far from an average talent IMO.

Kevin Smith gets a ton of touches. Anyone can put up decent numbers if they get a ton of touches.The following RBs are guys that I'm sure EVERYONE will agree are better than Kevin Smith right now: Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, SJax, Chris Johnson, Frank Gore, DeAngelo Williams, Ray Rice, Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams, and Michael Turner. I also think that most people will accept that the following RBs are also better than Kevin Smith: Jonathan Stewart, Beanie Wells, Rashard Mendenhall, Marion Barber, Felix Jones, Brandon Jacobs. I could probably name a couple of others, but that's already 16 names. If you accept those 16 names, then that makes Kevin Smith the 17th best RB in the league- by definition, a BELOW AVERAGE talent. Even if you want to quibble with a couple of the names, that still puts him somewhere in the 13th-19th range, which makes him an average talent, maybe an ever-so-slightly above average talent. Not a special talent by any stretch of the imagination, and I don't "covet" RBs who aren't special talents.

How many of you guys can still trade? Our deadline has passed, so taking trade now is a moot point. Is a trade deadline in dynasty typical?

No trade deadline in my dynasty league. I don't understand the argument for one. Why should a bad team not be allowed to improve because they're too bad? It's not like in redraft where someone might just punt the year to screw the league. In dynasty, if someone wants to bail on this year, that's just fine- how else are bad teams supposed to get better NEXT YEAR if not by stripping down their roster THIS YEAR?

 

[DoubleG]

How many of you guys can still trade? Our deadline has passed, so taking trade now is a moot point. Is a trade deadline in dynasty typical?

Trade deadlines in my dynasty leagues fall somewhere between week 10 and week 13.

Ours was prior to kickoff Thursday of this past week (week 11). The main reason is to not have trades happening in the playoffs.

 

[Multiple Scores]

The only RB I covet besides the obvious is Shonn Greene. Top 5 as soon as 2010 seems entirely plausible.

 

[GreatLakesMike]

Kevin Smith gets a ton of touches. Anyone can put up decent numbers if they get a ton of touches.The following RBs are guys that I'm sure EVERYONE will agree are better than Kevin Smith right now: Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, SJax, Chris Johnson, Frank Gore, DeAngelo Williams, Ray Rice, Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams, and Michael Turner. I also think that most people will accept that the following RBs are also better than Kevin Smith: Jonathan Stewart, Beanie Wells, Rashard Mendenhall, Marion Barber, Felix Jones, Brandon Jacobs. I could probably name a couple of others, but that's already 16 names. If you accept those 16 names, then that makes Kevin Smith the 17th best RB in the league- by definition, a BELOW AVERAGE talent. Even if you want to quibble with a couple of the names, that still puts him somewhere in the 13th-19th range, which makes him an average talent, maybe an ever-so-slightly above average talent. Not a special talent by any stretch of the imagination, and I don't "covet" RBs who aren't special talents.

Smith is averaging 19 touches per game. Carries - 11th most / Receptions - 8th most. I disagree that 19 touches per game is a "ton" of touches. Smith ran the ball 238 times to go along with 38 receptions in 08. We all know he was limited in the 1st half, but he still finished with under 300 touches for the season. Detroit is not using Smith like Cincy uses Benson, or like Tennessee uses Chris Johnson. Disagree with a few of the RB's you mentioned above on the 1st list, and many on the 2nd list. That said, we could argue over talent for pages, and it would still end up a matter of opinion. I never said Smith was a special talent, but I don't see too many special talents at the RB position. I do see a few RB's in good situations who are getting much more praise than they deserve.

 

[SSOG]

Smith is averaging 19 touches per game. Carries - 11th most / Receptions - 8th most. I disagree that 19 touches per game is a "ton" of touches. Smith ran the ball 238 times to go along with 38 receptions in 08. We all know he was limited in the 1st half, but he still finished with under 300 touches for the season. Detroit is not using Smith like Cincy uses Benson, or like Tennessee uses Chris Johnson. Disagree with a few of the RB's you mentioned above on the 1st list, and many on the 2nd list. That said, we could argue over talent for pages, and it would still end up a matter of opinion. I never said Smith was a special talent, but I don't see too many special talents at the RB position. I do see a few RB's in good situations who are getting much more praise than they deserve.

I'd be curious which RBs on that first list you disagreed with. I figured all of those would be pretty widely accepted.There might be some unspecial talents in good situations that get more credit than they deserve, but at the end of the day, an unspecial talent in a good situation trumps an unspecial talent in a bad situation.

 

[Black]

How about Brandon Jackson? He's signed through the end of 2010. Been getting catches out of the backfield this year.

Here's his contract info:

7/25/2007: Signed a four-year, $2.805 million contract. The deal contains $1.14 million guaranteed, including a $760,000 signing bonus. Also available are performance-based escalators in the final year. 2009: $460,000, 2010: $550,000, 2011: Free Agent

Here's Ryan Grant's contract info

8/5/2008: Signed a four-year, $20 million contract. The deal included initial roster bonuses totaling $4 million. Another $10 million is available through incentives. Annual workout bonuses of $250,000 are available beginning in 2009. If he rushes for 1,000 yards, he gets $500,000 added to his base pay the subsequent year. If Grant rushes for 1,250 yards, he earns an additional $1.5 million. If he rushes for 1,500+ yards, he earns $2.5 million more. 2009: $750,000 (+ $2.75 million roster bonus due in March + $500,000 roster bonus), 2010: $3 million (+ $1.25 million roster bonus due in March + $500,000 roster bonus), 2011: $3.5 million (+ $1.75 million roster bonus due in March + $500,000 roster bonus), 2012: Free Agent

 

[thevidon]

Smith is averaging 19 touches per game. Carries - 11th most / Receptions - 8th most. I disagree that 19 touches per game is a "ton" of touches. Smith ran the ball 238 times to go along with 38 receptions in 08. We all know he was limited in the 1st half, but he still finished with under 300 touches for the season. Detroit is not using Smith like Cincy uses Benson, or like Tennessee uses Chris Johnson. Disagree with a few of the RB's you mentioned above on the 1st list, and many on the 2nd list. That said, we could argue over talent for pages, and it would still end up a matter of opinion. I never said Smith was a special talent, but I don't see too many special talents at the RB position. I do see a few RB's in good situations who are getting much more praise than they deserve.

I'd be curious which RBs on that first list you disagreed with. I figured all of those would be pretty widely accepted.There might be some unspecial talents in good situations that get more credit than they deserve, but at the end of the day, an unspecial talent in a good situation trumps an unspecial talent in a bad situation.

Personally I don't think Ricky Williams, Felix Jones or Brandon Jacobs are better than Smith. Then again, I love having RB's with stamina that can carry the ball 30 times a game throughout the season. I take stamina into account along with the other skills involved in running. Is Felix more exciting to watch? Usually. Is Felix a better RB in fantasy or reality as a teams RB1? Nope.

 

[GreatLakesMike]

Smith is averaging 19 touches per game. Carries - 11th most / Receptions - 8th most. I disagree that 19 touches per game is a "ton" of touches. Smith ran the ball 238 times to go along with 38 receptions in 08. We all know he was limited in the 1st half, but he still finished with under 300 touches for the season. Detroit is not using Smith like Cincy uses Benson, or like Tennessee uses Chris Johnson. Disagree with a few of the RB's you mentioned above on the 1st list, and many on the 2nd list. That said, we could argue over talent for pages, and it would still end up a matter of opinion. I never said Smith was a special talent, but I don't see too many special talents at the RB position. I do see a few RB's in good situations who are getting much more praise than they deserve.

I'd be curious which RBs on that first list you disagreed with. I figured all of those would be pretty widely accepted.There might be some unspecial talents in good situations that get more credit than they deserve, but at the end of the day, an unspecial talent in a good situation trumps an unspecial talent in a bad situation.

Ricky Williams - Ricky is running behind one of the better run blocking lines in the league. Ricky is a good RB, but he's hardly overpowering defenders or juking them out of their shoes right now. Ricky has good vision, and he's a good 3rd down back, but the bottom line is that Ricky has holes to run through, which Smith doesn't. Good RB, but not better than Kevin Smith. Michael Turner is the other back I think is overrated, but on 2nd thought, I don't think I've seen enough of Turner to put him below Smith. Based on what I've seen from Turner ........ Turner has nice burst through the line, but he doesn't have exceptional vision or power. I'd say good vision, average power........ and, he's only a 2 down back. It should also be said that Atlanta, much like Miami, has a way better run blocking line than Detroit.

 

[GreatLakesMike]

I will say that I've noticed Smith forcing things a little this year. I think he's trying to do much, so I guess I can see where some of the criticism is coming from. He needs to be more patient, but that's easier said than done considering the situation.

Laugh if you must, but I like the direction Detroit has taken since going winless and firing Millen last year.

 

[northern exposure]

What in your opnion is Sproles lacking? I'm not disagreeing with you, I'm just looking for your input.

Obviously he doesn't have the size of a prototypical bellcow NFL back, but I think the Chargers' offensive scheme holds him back. I'm never going to say he can be a feature RB in the league, but I think if he is used properly in a thunder and lightning RB tandem he could be at least a great flex option, if not a RB2.

The Chargers have been fiercely loyal to LT2 this season even though he is a shadow of his former self. I would love to see them split the carries evenly for one game.

Sproles is completely lacking in the ability to run the ball in traffic. He goes down at first contact, has little leg drive, isn't good at quickly picking and committing to a hole, etc. He's dynamic when he gets the ball in space, but featured RBs very rarely get the ball in space, and Sproles is woeful otherwise. He's a great CoP back and a quality NFL asset, but he's not ever going to be anything in fantasy other than a flex play or absolute desperation starter (except in return yardage leagues, as I said).You said it yourself- he could at least be a great flex option, if not a RB2. Your words, not mine. This thread is titled "Dynasty RBs you covet", not "Dynasty RBs you wouldn't mind rolling out in the flex if you didn't have anything better".

Kevin Smith has put up some pretty good #'s in his first two years for an average talent on a terrible team. Smith's rushing average is down this year, but Detroit's line is terrible, they're starting a rookie QB, and their best player (Calvin) has missed time. It's been pretty easy to stack the box against Detroit this year.

Smith has decent speed, cuts on a dime, and is a great receiver out of the backfield. He's not AP, but he's far from an average talent IMO.

Kevin Smith gets a ton of touches. Anyone can put up decent numbers if they get a ton of touches.The following RBs are guys that I'm sure EVERYONE will agree are better than Kevin Smith right now: Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, SJax, Chris Johnson, Frank Gore, DeAngelo Williams, Ray Rice, Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams, and Michael Turner. I also think that most people will accept that the following RBs are also better than Kevin Smith: Jonathan Stewart, Beanie Wells, Rashard Mendenhall, Marion Barber, Felix Jones, Brandon Jacobs. I could probably name a couple of others, but that's already 16 names. If you accept those 16 names, then that makes Kevin Smith the 17th best RB in the league- by definition, a BELOW AVERAGE talent. Even if you want to quibble with a couple of the names, that still puts him somewhere in the 13th-19th range, which makes him an average talent, maybe an ever-so-slightly above average talent. Not a special talent by any stretch of the imagination, and I don't "covet" RBs who aren't special talents.

How many of you guys can still trade? Our deadline has passed, so taking trade now is a moot point. Is a trade deadline in dynasty typical?

No trade deadline in my dynasty league. I don't understand the argument for one. Why should a bad team not be allowed to improve because they're too bad? It's not like in redraft where someone might just punt the year to screw the league. In dynasty, if someone wants to bail on this year, that's just fine- how else are bad teams supposed to get better NEXT YEAR if not by stripping down their roster THIS YEAR?

I think you are kind of overstating the case against Sproles. How many RBs do you start in your dynasty leagues and how many teams are in said leagues?My dynasty leagues have 14-16 teams in them and we start a minimum of 2 RBs with at least one WR/RB flex spot. It is all well and good to covet the top 16-20 RBs in the league, but the law of averages says every team in my leagues already has at least one of them on their roster. So, the majority of the RB2s and flex spot RBs are going to come from outside of the top 20 RBs.

Regarding your response to Great Lakes Mike, it is one thing to identify RBs that are currently valuable, but isn't one of the secrets to success in dynasty leagues being able to identify and roster players that will be even more valuable in the future than they are now? A change of team or RBBC situation can make the world of difference to the future value of a RB.

You seem to be focused on the current value or current perception of value of RBs and are ignoring future value. You can continue to covet RBs that are

"special talents" as you put it, but I think you will have to agree there are only a precious few of those in the league. Rosters have to be filled out with "average talents" (your words) like Kevin Smith. It is one thing to covet all of the universally agreed upon stud RBs, but I think it is more realistic to also covet solid performers that can turn into something more down the road.

 

[northern exposure]

Kevin Smith gets a ton of touches. Anyone can put up decent numbers if they get a ton of touches.The following RBs are guys that I'm sure EVERYONE will agree are better than Kevin Smith right now: Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, SJax, Chris Johnson, Frank Gore, DeAngelo Williams, Ray Rice, Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams, and Michael Turner. I also think that most people will accept that the following RBs are also better than Kevin Smith: Jonathan Stewart, Beanie Wells, Rashard Mendenhall, Marion Barber, Felix Jones, Brandon Jacobs. I could probably name a couple of others, but that's already 16 names. If you accept those 16 names, then that makes Kevin Smith the 17th best RB in the league- by definition, a BELOW AVERAGE talent. Even if you want to quibble with a couple of the names, that still puts him somewhere in the 13th-19th range, which makes him an average talent, maybe an ever-so-slightly above average talent. Not a special talent by any stretch of the imagination, and I don't "covet" RBs who aren't special talents.

Smith is averaging 19 touches per game. Carries - 11th most / Receptions - 8th most. I disagree that 19 touches per game is a "ton" of touches. Smith ran the ball 238 times to go along with 38 receptions in 08. We all know he was limited in the 1st half, but he still finished with under 300 touches for the season. Detroit is not using Smith like Cincy uses Benson, or like Tennessee uses Chris Johnson. Disagree with a few of the RB's you mentioned above on the 1st list, and many on the 2nd list. That said, we could argue over talent for pages, and it would still end up a matter of opinion. I never said Smith was a special talent, but I don't see too many special talents at the RB position. I do see a few RB's in good situations who are getting much more praise than they deserve.

Mike I agree with you regarding Smith. It is also important to note that Smith has faced many 8 and 9 man fronts because of the Lions use of Culpepper earlier this season and the absence of Calvin Johnson in the lineup. Smith may be in an average to poor offensive situation now, but if the Lions add a threat opposite Johnson at WR and improve their O-line this could be a solid fantasy offense in future years. Pettigrew, Stafford, Johnson and Smith all have a bright future.As for RBs I don't think are better than Smith I would say Ricky Williams and Turner from list one and Jones and Jacobs (due to injury concerns) on the second list. I'm not sold on Mendenhall as the long term answer at RB in Pittsburgh and I don't think Tomlin and the Steelers are either.

 

[SSOG]

I think you are kind of overstating the case against Sproles. How many RBs do you start in your dynasty leagues and how many teams are in said leagues?

My dynasty leagues have 14-16 teams in them and we start a minimum of 2 RBs with at least one WR/RB flex spot. It is all well and good to covet the top 16-20 RBs in the league, but the law of averages says every team in my leagues already has at least one of them on their roster. So, the majority of the RB2s and flex spot RBs are going to come from outside of the top 20 RBs.

Regarding your response to Great Lakes Mike, it is one thing to identify RBs that are currently valuable, but isn't one of the secrets to success in dynasty leagues being able to identify and roster players that will be even more valuable in the future than they are now? A change of team or RBBC situation can make the world of difference to the future value of a RB.

You seem to be focused on the current value or current perception of value of RBs and are ignoring future value. You can continue to covet RBs that are

"special talents" as you put it, but I think you will have to agree there are only a precious few of those in the league. Rosters have to be filled out with "average talents" (your words) like Kevin Smith. It is one thing to covet all of the universally agreed upon stud RBs, but I think it is more realistic to also covet solid performers that can turn into something more down the road.

You think I'm overstating the case against Sproles. I think I'm not. That's what's great about fantasy football- different people value players differently. If everyone else valued players like I do, then trading would be impossible. I see Sproles as a guy who will never get the touches to be anything more than an RB3, and as a result, I don't covet him- RB3s can generally be had much more cheaply and easily. You see his ability in space and value Sproles highly because of his potential to put up videogame numbers if he ever gets huge opportunity. That's another perfectly valid interpretation of the data, albeit a different one than I have.To me, the word "covet" suggests a burning desire to own the player in question, accompanied by a willingness to pay well over market price to acquire him. In my mind, the words "covet" and "Sproles" don't belong in the same sentence. If you think he's an outside-the-top-20 guy, I question how much you covet him, too. I wouldn't mind owning him, but I'm not going to deliberately seek him out and build my team around him. Would you? Would you pay double the market price for Darren Sproles just to ensure that you landed him on your roster?

As for overvaluing present value... that's not the case at all. I think you'll find that I have a track record of basing my rankings more on talent than current value. I was down on Jennings over the offseason, I was on record saying that Ronnie Brown was a better dynasty RB than Michael Turner before the season started (looked great until Brown got hurt ), and I'm currently embroiled in an argument in the Mike Sims-Walker thread saying that he's not a top 10 dynasty receiver. I also was the first person I saw to move Vincent Jackson to the #4 dynasty WR because of his unmatched future potential (I'd argue that he has more future potential than Andre Johnson). I understand that the key to success in Dynasty is being ahead of the curve and acquiring players before the word is out on them. I think the key philosophical difference here centers on the word "covet". I don't COVET guys who are end-of-the-starting-lineup filler-type guys. I'll acquire them sometimes if they fill a need, but I only COVET guys who I think can be fantasy difference-makers. And Kevin Smith and Darren Sproles, in my opinion, will never be fantasy difference makers. If I was extremely shallow at RB, I might acquire them... but if I couldn't acquire them, then I wouldn't lose any sleep over it, because comparable players are available on the cheap at all times.

 

[SSOG]

How about Brandon Jackson? He's signed through the end of 2010. Been getting catches out of the backfield this year.

Here's his contract info:

7/25/2007: Signed a four-year, $2.805 million contract. The deal contains $1.14 million guaranteed, including a $760,000 signing bonus. Also available are performance-based escalators in the final year. 2009: $460,000, 2010: $550,000, 2011: Free Agent

Here's Ryan Grant's contract info

8/5/2008: Signed a four-year, $20 million contract. The deal included initial roster bonuses totaling $4 million. Another $10 million is available through incentives. Annual workout bonuses of $250,000 are available beginning in 2009. If he rushes for 1,000 yards, he gets $500,000 added to his base pay the subsequent year. If Grant rushes for 1,250 yards, he earns an additional $1.5 million. If he rushes for 1,500+ yards, he earns $2.5 million more. 2009: $750,000 (+ $2.75 million roster bonus due in March + $500,000 roster bonus), 2010: $3 million (+ $1.25 million roster bonus due in March + $500,000 roster bonus), 2011: $3.5 million (+ $1.75 million roster bonus due in March + $500,000 roster bonus), 2012: Free Agent

No. Just no.

Agreed. I wouldn't be surprised to see Grant lose his starting job at some point, but I would definitely be surprised to see him lose it to someone who is currently on Green Bay's roster.

 

[Hendo]

Kevin Smith gets a ton of touches. Anyone can put up decent numbers if they get a ton of touches.The following RBs are guys that I'm sure EVERYONE will agree are better than Kevin Smith right now: Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, SJax, Chris Johnson, Frank Gore, DeAngelo Williams, Ray Rice, Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams, and Michael Turner. I also think that most people will accept that the following RBs are also better than Kevin Smith: Jonathan Stewart, Beanie Wells, Rashard Mendenhall, Marion Barber, Felix Jones, Brandon Jacobs. I could probably name a couple of others, but that's already 16 names. If you accept those 16 names, then that makes Kevin Smith the 17th best RB in the league- by definition, a BELOW AVERAGE talent. Even if you want to quibble with a couple of the names, that still puts him somewhere in the 13th-19th range, which makes him an average talent, maybe an ever-so-slightly above average talent. Not a special talent by any stretch of the imagination, and I don't "covet" RBs who aren't special talents.

Smith is averaging 19 touches per game. Carries - 11th most / Receptions - 8th most. I disagree that 19 touches per game is a "ton" of touches. Smith ran the ball 238 times to go along with 38 receptions in 08. We all know he was limited in the 1st half, but he still finished with under 300 touches for the season. Detroit is not using Smith like Cincy uses Benson, or like Tennessee uses Chris Johnson. Disagree with a few of the RB's you mentioned above on the 1st list, and many on the 2nd list. That said, we could argue over talent for pages, and it would still end up a matter of opinion. I never said Smith was a special talent, but I don't see too many special talents at the RB position. I do see a few RB's in good situations who are getting much more praise than they deserve.

Mike I agree with you regarding Smith. It is also important to note that Smith has faced many 8 and 9 man fronts because of the Lions use of Culpepper earlier this season and the absence of Calvin Johnson in the lineup. Smith may be in an average to poor offensive situation now, but if the Lions add a threat opposite Johnson at WR and improve their O-line this could be a solid fantasy offense in future years. Pettigrew, Stafford, Johnson and Smith all have a bright future.

If detroit is able to get a rock solid OL then yes I can see thi splausable as the only true franchise players I do see there is Stafford and Calvin. They need a big upgrade at Defense all the way around aside of Delmas and Sims. I still hope Okhun?(spelled correctly?) is there pick in the draft as if they cant keep their promising QB off the turf then its a moot point. Detroit actualy might have finaly chose the right QB this time around.

 

[switz]

Michael Turner is the other back I think is overrated, but on 2nd thought, I don't think I've seen enough of Turner to put him below Smith. Based on what I've seen from Turner ........ Turner has nice burst through the line, but he doesn't have exceptional vision or power. I'd say good vision, average power........ and, he's only a 2 down back. It should also be said that Atlanta, much like Miami, has a way better run blocking line than Detroit.

Turner is a much better receiving back than you give him credit for, he just isn't used that much in that area. Partially because the team has an excellent open field RB in Norwood who needs to get his touches that way. But don't undersell Turner's receiving ability.

 

[switz]

Mike I agree with you regarding Smith. It is also important to note that Smith has faced many 8 and 9 man fronts because of the Lions use of Culpepper earlier this season and the absence of Calvin Johnson in the lineup. Smith may be in an average to poor offensive situation now, but if the Lions add a threat opposite Johnson at WR and improve their O-line this could be a solid fantasy offense in future years. Pettigrew, Stafford, Johnson and Smith all have a bright future.

I'm pretty sure that defenses fear Culpepper passing more than Stafford. However, Smith has faced some 8 man fronts, but he, like Forte, just doesn't seem to be anything special as an RB. He may get more opportunity as time goes on to display his ability. I don't think they'll replace him anytime soon. I just wouldn't have him high on my list of dynasty RBs to go after.

 

[northern exposure]

Mike I agree with you regarding Smith. It is also important to note that Smith has faced many 8 and 9 man fronts because of the Lions use of Culpepper earlier this season and the absence of Calvin Johnson in the lineup. Smith may be in an average to poor offensive situation now, but if the Lions add a threat opposite Johnson at WR and improve their O-line this could be a solid fantasy offense in future years. Pettigrew, Stafford, Johnson and Smith all have a bright future.

I'm pretty sure that defenses fear Culpepper passing more than Stafford. However, Smith has faced some 8 man fronts, but he, like Forte, just doesn't seem to be anything special as an RB. He may get more opportunity as time goes on to display his ability. I don't think they'll replace him anytime soon. I just wouldn't have him high on my list of dynasty RBs to go after.

Based on stats from this season, are you sure teams fear Daunte more than Stafford?Stafford, Matthew TDS 11 INT 14 YDS 1,911 RTG 66.9

Culpepper, Daunte TDS 1 INT 2 YDS 384 RTG 66.9

I wouldn't be so quick to write off Forte either. The Bears' O-line is currently better at pass blocking than run blocking, that could change before the start of the 2010 season.

 

[thatguy]

I was on record saying that Ronnie Brown was a better dynasty RB than Michael Turner before the season started (looked great until Brown got hurt )

Howso? They're virtually the same age (Turner is three months younger), and Turner was outproducing Ronnie prior to Ronnie getting hurt.

 

[northern exposure]

I think you are kind of overstating the case against Sproles. How many RBs do you start in your dynasty leagues and how many teams are in said leagues?

My dynasty leagues have 14-16 teams in them and we start a minimum of 2 RBs with at least one WR/RB flex spot. It is all well and good to covet the top 16-20 RBs in the league, but the law of averages says every team in my leagues already has at least one of them on their roster. So, the majority of the RB2s and flex spot RBs are going to come from outside of the top 20 RBs.

Regarding your response to Great Lakes Mike, it is one thing to identify RBs that are currently valuable, but isn't one of the secrets to success in dynasty leagues being able to identify and roster players that will be even more valuable in the future than they are now? A change of team or RBBC situation can make the world of difference to the future value of a RB.

You seem to be focused on the current value or current perception of value of RBs and are ignoring future value. You can continue to covet RBs that are

"special talents" as you put it, but I think you will have to agree there are only a precious few of those in the league. Rosters have to be filled out with "average talents" (your words) like Kevin Smith. It is one thing to covet all of the universally agreed upon stud RBs, but I think it is more realistic to also covet solid performers that can turn into something more down the road.

You think I'm overstating the case against Sproles. I think I'm not. That's what's great about fantasy football- different people value players differently. If everyone else valued players like I do, then trading would be impossible. I see Sproles as a guy who will never get the touches to be anything more than an RB3, and as a result, I don't covet him- RB3s can generally be had much more cheaply and easily. You see his ability in space and value Sproles highly because of his potential to put up videogame numbers if he ever gets huge opportunity. That's another perfectly valid interpretation of the data, albeit a different one than I have.To me, the word "covet" suggests a burning desire to own the player in question, accompanied by a willingness to pay well over market price to acquire him. In my mind, the words "covet" and "Sproles" don't belong in the same sentence. If you think he's an outside-the-top-20 guy, I question how much you covet him, too. I wouldn't mind owning him, but I'm not going to deliberately seek him out and build my team around him. Would you? Would you pay double the market price for Darren Sproles just to ensure that you landed him on your roster?

As for overvaluing present value... that's not the case at all. I think you'll find that I have a track record of basing my rankings more on talent than current value. I was down on Jennings over the offseason, I was on record saying that Ronnie Brown was a better dynasty RB than Michael Turner before the season started (looked great until Brown got hurt :( ), and I'm currently embroiled in an argument in the Mike Sims-Walker thread saying that he's not a top 10 dynasty receiver. I also was the first person I saw to move Vincent Jackson to the #4 dynasty WR because of his unmatched future potential (I'd argue that he has more future potential than Andre Johnson). I understand that the key to success in Dynasty is being ahead of the curve and acquiring players before the word is out on them. I think the key philosophical difference here centers on the word "covet". I don't COVET guys who are end-of-the-starting-lineup filler-type guys. I'll acquire them sometimes if they fill a need, but I only COVET guys who I think can be fantasy difference-makers. And Kevin Smith and Darren Sproles, in my opinion, will never be fantasy difference makers. If I was extremely shallow at RB, I might acquire them... but if I couldn't acquire them, then I wouldn't lose any sleep over it, because comparable players are available on the cheap at all times.

I think you might be getting a bit too hung up on the word covet. If everybody "covets" the same RBs than what is the point? There are only so many RBs worthy of coveting to go around. So, if you only have one on your dynasty roster what do you do? Do you pay double the market price to acquire a second covetable RB and sacrifice your QB and WRs? I thought the point of this thread was to name some RBs you have your eye on that might be under the radar.Otherwise the OP could have just listed the universally agreed upon top 10-20 RBs in the first post and then closed the thread.

If you were down on Jennings (Greg I assume) during the offseason, you must have realized then that the Packers O-line would be decimated by injuries in the 2009 season. You must have known these injuries would not allow Rodgers the time he needs to set up to throw the deep ball and make the Packers' air attack rely more on short passes and YAC. If that is the case, that is one fantastic crystal ball you have and I'd like to borrow it prior to the playoffs please. TIA.

 

[northern exposure]

Michael Turner is the other back I think is overrated, but on 2nd thought, I don't think I've seen enough of Turner to put him below Smith. Based on what I've seen from Turner ........ Turner has nice burst through the line, but he doesn't have exceptional vision or power. I'd say good vision, average power........ and, he's only a 2 down back. It should also be said that Atlanta, much like Miami, has a way better run blocking line than Detroit.

Turner is a much better receiving back than you give him credit for, he just isn't used that much in that area. Partially because the team has an excellent open field RB in Norwood who needs to get his touches that way. But don't undersell Turner's receiving ability.

:( If that is the case then how come Turner only has 5 receptions on the season (22 in his career!) while Norwood has only 8 receptions this season and has not played since week 6? Are you the only one that can see Turner's pass catching ability?

 

[SSOG]

I was on record saying that Ronnie Brown was a better dynasty RB than Michael Turner before the season started (looked great until Brown got hurt :( )

Howso? They're virtually the same age (Turner is three months younger), and Turner was outproducing Ronnie prior to Ronnie getting hurt.

Brown looked a lot better and was a bigger focal point of his offense. Turner's had a couple of big games recently, but he didn't crack 4.0 ypc on the season until week 8.

I think you might be getting a bit too hung up on the word covet. If everybody "covets" the same RBs than what is the point? There are only so many RBs worthy of coveting to go around. So, if you only have one on your dynasty roster what do you do? Do you pay double the market price to acquire a second covetable RB and sacrifice your QB and WRs? I thought the point of this thread was to name some RBs you have your eye on that might be under the radar.

Otherwise the OP could have just listed the universally agreed upon top 10-20 RBs in the first post and then closed the thread.

If you were down on Jennings (Greg I assume) during the offseason, you must have realized then that the Packers O-line would be decimated by injuries in the 2009 season. You must have known these injuries would not allow Rodgers the time he needs to set up to throw the deep ball and make the Packers' air attack rely more on short passes and YAC. If that is the case, that is one fantastic crystal ball you have and I'd like to borrow it prior to the playoffs please. TIA.

From the original post: "Aside from the 'untouchables'... what RBs would you want on your (PPR) team, as guys who can turn into (mostly) bellcows or valued because they are utilized running and in the passing game?" and "So who's the next guy where talent, coaching, and opportunity are lining up?"My take on this thread was that it wasn't a thread about what guys might see marginal gains in value, moving from RB30 to RB20... my take was that it was a "who's the next Ray Rice or MJD?" type thread, trying to identify guys who are not currently deemed untouchable who will one day achieve that status.

Also, being down on Jennings had nothing to do with his situation and everything to do with the fact that I didn't think he was the type of talent that transcended situation, and that his situation wouldn't remain great forever. I didn't necessarily expect it to turn this quickly, but I had him ranked much lower than everyone else because I knew it was a matter of time, and didn't believe that Jennings was talented enough to hold his value when it went.

 

[bostonfred]

Top 20

1 Adrian Peterson - The most talented back in the league. Has at least one insane-o season in him, and we haven't seen it yet

2 Chris Johnson - I'm hesitant to put him this high while he's on a hot streak. I have a feeling he'll cool down as the league adjusts to the new look old look Titans

3 Maurice Jones-Drew - Seeing him do well with Taylor and even better without him finally made me a believer

4 Matt Forte - Big dropoff. He's talented, and his situation should improve

5 Ray Rice - He's in the ideal situation right now, but that can change on a dime. Not even top ten on this list in terms of talent alone.

6 Michael Turner - OMG Touchdowns

7 Ronnie Brown - After seeing Ricky blow up without Brown, Ronnie owners are salivating over their turn in a year or two

8 Steven Jackson - If the Rams get good before he retires, he'll be a beast.

9 DeAngelo Williams - Another back where situation is better than talent, and his situation is kind of hurt by Stewart. Carolina likes to cycle through their backs, which makes me worry that they'll dump DeAngelo and draft another back early in a year or two

10 Beanie Wells - Looks like a monster. Should blossom into a complete player in season two or three.

11 Frank Gore - Injury prone talent without situation.

12 Steve Slaton - Decent talent, decent situation if he can get out of the doghouse.

13 Cedric Benson - It looks like the light went on. Could have a Thomas Jones like second half of his career if he can stay interested.

14 LeSean McCoy - If he can be the Westbrook clone they want, then he'll be a monster. Looks good so far.

15 Rashard Mendenhall - Roethlisberger concussion may have team leaning heavier on the run game in the long run

16 Jonathan Stewart - Good talent, will probably be in a great situation soon

17 Joseph Addai - Fighting for his job

18 Marion Barber - Clinging to his job

19 Donald Brown - Hoping for the job

20 Kevin Smith - Meh

 

[northern exposure]

I was on record saying that Ronnie Brown was a better dynasty RB than Michael Turner before the season started (looked great until Brown got hurt )

Howso? They're virtually the same age (Turner is three months younger), and Turner was outproducing Ronnie prior to Ronnie getting hurt.

Brown looked a lot better and was a bigger focal point of his offense. Turner's had a couple of big games recently, but he didn't crack 4.0 ypc on the season until week 8.

I think you might be getting a bit too hung up on the word covet. If everybody "covets" the same RBs than what is the point? There are only so many RBs worthy of coveting to go around. So, if you only have one on your dynasty roster what do you do? Do you pay double the market price to acquire a second covetable RB and sacrifice your QB and WRs? I thought the point of this thread was to name some RBs you have your eye on that might be under the radar.

Otherwise the OP could have just listed the universally agreed upon top 10-20 RBs in the first post and then closed the thread.

If you were down on Jennings (Greg I assume) during the offseason, you must have realized then that the Packers O-line would be decimated by injuries in the 2009 season. You must have known these injuries would not allow Rodgers the time he needs to set up to throw the deep ball and make the Packers' air attack rely more on short passes and YAC. If that is the case, that is one fantastic crystal ball you have and I'd like to borrow it prior to the playoffs please. TIA.

From the original post: "Aside from the 'untouchables'... what RBs would you want on your (PPR) team, as guys who can turn into (mostly) bellcows or valued because they are utilized running and in the passing game?" and "So who's the next guy where talent, coaching, and opportunity are lining up?"My take on this thread was that it wasn't a thread about what guys might see marginal gains in value, moving from RB30 to RB20... my take was that it was a "who's the next Ray Rice or MJD?" type thread, trying to identify guys who are not currently deemed untouchable who will one day achieve that status.

Also, being down on Jennings had nothing to do with his situation and everything to do with the fact that I didn't think he was the type of talent that transcended situation, and that his situation wouldn't remain great forever. I didn't necessarily expect it to turn this quickly, but I had him ranked much lower than everyone else because I knew it was a matter of time, and didn't believe that Jennings was talented enough to hold his value when it went.

Okay, so based on the criteria laid out by the OP, the RBs you mentioned to be "the next MJD or Ray Rice" are SJax, Gore and JStew (based on your first post in the thread). Really? You don't think the word is already out on these guys? I've had no luck acquiring any of these guys in dynasty leagues because owners already identify them as untouchable. That being said I already own them in most of my dynasty leagues anyway.

 

[thatguy]

I was on record saying that Ronnie Brown was a better dynasty RB than Michael Turner before the season started (looked great until Brown got hurt :( )

Howso? They're virtually the same age (Turner is three months younger), and Turner was outproducing Ronnie prior to Ronnie getting hurt.

Brown looked a lot better and was a bigger focal point of his offense. Turner's had a couple of big games recently, but he didn't crack 4.0 ypc on the season until week 8.

And now Turner's YPC is at 5.0, especially impressive considering he handles all of the short yardage and goal line work. Indeed, not all 5 YPC's are created equal - Michael Turner's 5.0 YPC is far more impressive than most. You're selling him short. I realize you were down on him coming into the season, and the first few games seemed to mesh with what you believed, but his body of work to this point in the season flies in the face of your proclamation that he is not a special RB.

 

[thatguy]

To answer the question asked in this thread, the one RB I am actively trying to acquire right now is Stewart. He will be expensive, but I'm stacked at WR and am willing to give up quite a lot of depth to land him.

 

[editor47]

To answer the question asked in this thread, the one RB I am actively trying to acquire right now is Stewart. He will be expensive, but I'm stacked at WR and am willing to give up quite a lot of depth to land him.

i might try and trade colston for him in the offseason.i want to talk about kevin smith. i never understood why people refuse to give this guy credit. (same for addai). are they as talented as peterson and chris johnson? no. but talent is just one part of the combination necessary to be a success in the nfl. opportunity is another. and kevin smith is in a very good situation. the lions have stafford and calvin johnson. they have the makings of a good offense with the three of them. people have said their OL isn't great. and their defense isn't good. so while smith might not be s upertalented, he's in a spot where through the draft and FA the Lions have MUCH GREATER needs to address for the next 2-3 years. and let's talk talent: He finished 2007 just 62 yards shy of setting the NCAA season-rushing record of 2,628 yards set by former Lions great, Barry Sanders. So he ran for 2,500 yards in one season. I don't care who he was running against, or if he carried 1,000 times. That's impressive.Let's talk draft: The Lions traded up to the first pick in the 3rd round to draft him. Hmm? Sound familiar? People are nuts for Shonn Greene in the dynasty thread because of the same thing. But because Smith doesn't look like Peterson or run like Johnson, he falls short in the 'eye' test.

 

[SSOG]

And now Turner's YPC is at 5.0, especially impressive considering he handles all of the short yardage and goal line work. Indeed, not all 5 YPC's are created equal - Michael Turner's 5.0 YPC is far more impressive than most. You're selling him short. I realize you were down on him coming into the season, and the first few games seemed to mesh with what you believed, but his body of work to this point in the season flies in the face of your proclamation that he is not a special RB.

Turner's YPC is based off of three monster games back-to-back-to-back. He posted 7.6, 9.2, and 12.3 yards per carry in his last three games. Prior to that explosion, he was at 3.4 ypc on the season. He's had below 4 ypc in 5 out of 9 games so far this season. Is he as bad as the 3.4 ypc suggested he was? Of course not. Is he as good as this current 10+ ypc stretch suggests? Of course not. As was discussed in the dynasty thread, it's hard to evaluate a player on a hot streak because his numbers are skewed by the fact that he's on a hot streak. Also, I never said that he wasn't a special talent, I said he wasn't as special of a talent as I thought he would be when he was in San Diego.

Okay, so based on the criteria laid out by the OP, the RBs you mentioned to be "the next MJD or Ray Rice" are SJax, Gore and JStew (based on your first post in the thread). Really? You don't think the word is already out on these guys? I've had no luck acquiring any of these guys in dynasty leagues because owners already identify them as untouchable. That being said I already own them in most of my dynasty leagues anyway.

He asked who besides ADP, MJD, CJ3, and Rice were either now or would one day become "untouchable". You might think that SJax and Gore are no brainers. I happen to agree- they should be no brainers. Which is why I mentioned them.Stewart might be untouchable in your league, but he's hardly untouchable in general. Odds are he can be had for less than top-10 RB cost in most leagues.As for who else is out there that can make the jump to untouchable... the reason I didn't list any other names is because I don't think there are any other special talents out there. I think that RB talent in the league right now is pretty much at its nadir.

 

[basher]

Top 201 Adrian Peterson - The most talented back in the league. Has at least one insane-o season in him, and we haven't seen it yet2 Chris Johnson - I'm hesitant to put him this high while he's on a hot streak. I have a feeling he'll cool down as the league adjusts to the new look old look Titans3 Maurice Jones-Drew - Seeing him do well with Taylor and even better without him finally made me a believer4 Matt Forte - Big dropoff. He's talented, and his situation should improve5 Ray Rice - He's in the ideal situation right now, but that can change on a dime. Not even top ten on this list in terms of talent alone. 6 Michael Turner - OMG Touchdowns7 Ronnie Brown - After seeing Ricky blow up without Brown, Ronnie owners are salivating over their turn in a year or two8 Steven Jackson - If the Rams get good before he retires, he'll be a beast. 9 DeAngelo Williams - Another back where situation is better than talent, and his situation is kind of hurt by Stewart. Carolina likes to cycle through their backs, which makes me worry that they'll dump DeAngelo and draft another back early in a year or two10 Beanie Wells - Looks like a monster. Should blossom into a complete player in season two or three. 11 Frank Gore - Injury prone talent without situation. 12 Steve Slaton - Decent talent, decent situation if he can get out of the doghouse. 13 Cedric Benson - It looks like the light went on. Could have a Thomas Jones like second half of his career if he can stay interested.14 LeSean McCoy - If he can be the Westbrook clone they want, then he'll be a monster. Looks good so far. 15 Rashard Mendenhall - Roethlisberger concussion may have team leaning heavier on the run game in the long run16 Jonathan Stewart - Good talent, will probably be in a great situation soon17 Joseph Addai - Fighting for his job18 Marion Barber - Clinging to his job19 Donald Brown - Hoping for the job20 Kevin Smith - Meh

SJax should easily be top 5 without question. He is 26 and is and will be the clear focal point for his offense. He is a factor in both the run and pass game. In fact the only players I think you could claim are better would be AP, CJ, and MJD.Deangelo has more talent then your 4-7 ... the only big knock on him is that he has another talented back in the back field with him.Slaton should probably be moved to 17 and everyone else shifted above. Stewart has more talent then a large portion of your top 15 but will he get decent touches anytime soon?

 

[BigJim®]

Top 20

9 DeAngelo Williams - Another back where situation is better than talent,

Really? I would say the opposite.

 

[hostile]

Turner's YPC is based off of three monster games back-to-back-to-back. He posted 7.6, 9.2, and 12.3 yards per carry in his last three games. Prior to that explosion, he was at 3.4 ypc on the season. He's had below 4 ypc in 5 out of 9 games so far this season. Is he as bad as the 3.4 ypc suggested he was? Of course not. Is he as good as this current 10+ ypc stretch suggests? Of course not. As was discussed in the dynasty thread, it's hard to evaluate a player on a hot streak because his numbers are skewed by the fact that he's on a hot streak. Also, I never said that he wasn't a special talent, I said he wasn't as special of a talent as I thought he would be when he was in San Diego.

This is why the use of "averages" is such BS.People should be using the mode/median, ie the numbers which occur the most frequently compared to the number in the middle. The average (mean) gets skewed by outrageously high or low scores and gives a false sense of what is actually going on.Fwiw, in terms of RBs I "covet", I try not to "covet" anyone, but I would say outside of the "untouchables" like ADP and 4.24, I have tried to target JStew in my leagues. I think he can be had for a reasonable price right now, and could wind up in beast mode in a year or two.

 

[FantasyTrader]

Top 20

9 DeAngelo Williams - Another back where situation is better than talent,

Really? I would say the opposite.

I think he was referring to O-line and coaching commitment to the run. I think it's a wash. Yeah, there are better situations for Williams out there than he's in but not many. You could make him "the man" in probably 16-18 offenses as they stand now and he wouldn't be any more productive.

 

[FantasyTrader]

Turner's YPC is based off of three monster games back-to-back-to-back. He posted 7.6, 9.2, and 12.3 yards per carry in his last three games. Prior to that explosion, he was at 3.4 ypc on the season. He's had below 4 ypc in 5 out of 9 games so far this season. Is he as bad as the 3.4 ypc suggested he was? Of course not. Is he as good as this current 10+ ypc stretch suggests? Of course not. As was discussed in the dynasty thread, it's hard to evaluate a player on a hot streak because his numbers are skewed by the fact that he's on a hot streak. Also, I never said that he wasn't a special talent, I said he wasn't as special of a talent as I thought he would be when he was in San Diego.

This is why the use of "averages" is such BS.People should be using the mode/median, ie the numbers which occur the most frequently compared to the number in the middle. The average (mean) gets skewed by outrageously high or low scores and gives a false sense of what is actually going on.Fwiw, in terms of RBs I "covet", I try not to "covet" anyone, but I would say outside of the "untouchables" like ADP and 4.24, I have tried to target JStew in my leagues. I think he can be had for a reasonable price right now, and could wind up in beast mode in a year or two.

No. But I will agree with...well, no I won't. Just no.

 

[hostile]

Turner's YPC is based off of three monster games back-to-back-to-back. He posted 7.6, 9.2, and 12.3 yards per carry in his last three games. Prior to that explosion, he was at 3.4 ypc on the season. He's had below 4 ypc in 5 out of 9 games so far this season. Is he as bad as the 3.4 ypc suggested he was? Of course not. Is he as good as this current 10+ ypc stretch suggests? Of course not. As was discussed in the dynasty thread, it's hard to evaluate a player on a hot streak because his numbers are skewed by the fact that he's on a hot streak. Also, I never said that he wasn't a special talent, I said he wasn't as special of a talent as I thought he would be when he was in San Diego.

This is why the use of "averages" is such BS.People should be using the mode/median, ie the numbers which occur the most frequently compared to the number in the middle. The average (mean) gets skewed by outrageously high or low scores and gives a false sense of what is actually going on.Fwiw, in terms of RBs I "covet", I try not to "covet" anyone, but I would say outside of the "untouchables" like ADP and 4.24, I have tried to target JStew in my leagues. I think he can be had for a reasonable price right now, and could wind up in beast mode in a year or two.

No. But I will agree with...well, no I won't. Just no.

"No", what?"No" you don't know what a mean/mode/median are, or "no" you don't agree with my assessment of JStew?

 

[thatguy]

And now Turner's YPC is at 5.0, especially impressive considering he handles all of the short yardage and goal line work. Indeed, not all 5 YPC's are created equal - Michael Turner's 5.0 YPC is far more impressive than most. You're selling him short. I realize you were down on him coming into the season, and the first few games seemed to mesh with what you believed, but his body of work to this point in the season flies in the face of your proclamation that he is not a special RB.

Turner's YPC is based off of three monster games back-to-back-to-back. He posted 7.6, 9.2, and 12.3 yards per carry in his last three games. Prior to that explosion, he was at 3.4 ypc on the season. He's had below 4 ypc in 5 out of 9 games so far this season. Is he as bad as the 3.4 ypc suggested he was? Of course not. Is he as good as this current 10+ ypc stretch suggests? Of course not. As was discussed in the dynasty thread, it's hard to evaluate a player on a hot streak because his numbers are skewed by the fact that he's on a hot streak. Also, I never said that he wasn't a special talent, I said he wasn't as special of a talent as I thought he would be when he was in San Diego.

Um, no, but he is as good as his 5 YPC suggests. I'm not evaluating Turner based on his hot streak, I'm evaluating him based on his numbers up to this point in the season (and his numbers last season). Seems to me you'd rather ignore his recent performance (as well as all of last season), and instead use his performance early in the season as affirmation of the conclusion you've already drawn. I'm looking at the whole picture, and the whole picture suggests he is a monster. We have two and half seasons of numbers and film to evaluate, and everything suggests that he is a very special player and a top 10 dynasty RB. Not only are the numbers elite, but anyone (most anyone, anyway) who has seen him play can see that he is a very special player.

 

[moderated]

JStew is the one guy i'm lusting after.

He's the total package and eventually will the workhorse for a team. He's a top 5 dynasty RB IMO.

 

[mikel2014]

It seems like Stewart and Mendenhall are two of the most sought after players here. Who would you give up to get one of them?

 

[Whiplash Inc.]

Thoughts on DMac?

He's on the trade block in my money league.

 

[Spin]

Some of my friends are starting a dynasty league next year and we're going to do a 47 round auction draft, drafting IDP as well. With a $2000 dollar auction cap, how much would you spend on Ray Rice? Is he worth 1/4th of the total cap? I think he is the guy I'm going to target at our draft as my RB1. Being in Nashville a lot of guys are absolutely in love with CJ and I'm pretty sure he's going to go for somewhere in the 500-600 range (someone half mentioned he would pay half his auction for ADP), so I think Ray Rice may slide to me a bit cheaper. Just curious what kind of auction value you would place on some of the top RBs in an initial auction draft for a dynasty league.

 

[FantasyTrader]

Some of my friends are starting a dynasty league next year and we're going to do a 47 round auction draft, drafting IDP as well. With a $2000 dollar auction cap, how much would you spend on Ray Rice? Is he worth 1/4th of the total cap? I think he is the guy I'm going to target at our draft as my RB1. Being in Nashville a lot of guys are absolutely in love with CJ and I'm pretty sure he's going to go for somewhere in the 500-600 range (someone half mentioned he would pay half his auction for ADP), so I think Ray Rice may slide to me a bit cheaper. Just curious what kind of auction value you would place on some of the top RBs in an initial auction draft for a dynasty league.

In a 47 round auction, I'll let my leaguemates have as many players at 25-28% budget as they desire.

 

[Instinctive]

Yeah...I would wait and see if Rice slips past the first wave of bidding. Toss out a kicker to start...maybe somebody like SJax or Rice slips through the cracks, and you can be the guy with lots of cash left that grabs them.

 

[SSOG]

Turner's YPC is based off of three monster games back-to-back-to-back. He posted 7.6, 9.2, and 12.3 yards per carry in his last three games. Prior to that explosion, he was at 3.4 ypc on the season. He's had below 4 ypc in 5 out of 9 games so far this season. Is he as bad as the 3.4 ypc suggested he was? Of course not. Is he as good as this current 10+ ypc stretch suggests? Of course not. As was discussed in the dynasty thread, it's hard to evaluate a player on a hot streak because his numbers are skewed by the fact that he's on a hot streak. Also, I never said that he wasn't a special talent, I said he wasn't as special of a talent as I thought he would be when he was in San Diego.

This is why the use of "averages" is such BS.People should be using the mode/median, ie the numbers which occur the most frequently compared to the number in the middle. The average (mean) gets skewed by outrageously high or low scores and gives a false sense of what is actually going on.

The Median is a terrible tool for evaluation, too- it's just too blunt of an instrument. IIRC, pretty much every RB in NFL history has a median carry length of 3 yards.

Um, no, but he is as good as his 5 YPC suggests. I'm not evaluating Turner based on his hot streak, I'm evaluating him based on his numbers up to this point in the season (and his numbers last season). Seems to me you'd rather ignore his recent performance (as well as all of last season), and instead use his performance early in the season as affirmation of the conclusion you've already drawn. I'm looking at the whole picture, and the whole picture suggests he is a monster. We have two and half seasons of numbers and film to evaluate, and everything suggests that he is a very special player and a top 10 dynasty RB. Not only are the numbers elite, but anyone (most anyone, anyway) who has seen him play can see that he is a very special player.

You're not evaluating Turner on his hot streak, but you're evaluating him at the tail end of a hot streak, which I would claim is as flawed as you'd think me evaluating him at the tail end of a cold streak might be.Anyway, you want to call him a top 10 dynasty RB, I have no problem with that. You want to call him one of the ten best runners in the entire NFL, I'll even agree with you. The problem is that I think he's far lower down in the 10 than you do. Personally, I'd put him right at #10 in my dynasty rankings, and the only reason he cracks the top 10 is because of Brown's injury, otherwise he'd be 11th. He's older than every single other RB in my top 25 with the exception of Ronnie, and he's possibly the worst receiving RB in the entire NFL. In order for me to overlook those warts completely, he'd need to be one of the five most talented runners in the league, and I don't think he is (in no particular order, I'd take ADP, MJD, CJ3, SJax, Gore, and DeAngelo over him, and would have taken Brown, too).