You are right in that Ayers and Smith should be more ready to contribute in their second year, but things are not looking good for either so far. Ayers has been working with the second team defense. A guy who had the price tag that Smith had you would expect to contribute right away. Smith was thought to be a first round guy who dropped. A lot of highly drafted corners come in and play very well from the jump. Smith couldn't even hold the job as a nickel back. That isn't good.
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/...n-the-doghouse/
http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/tag/_/name/alphonso-smith
Thomas is going to take time to develop. I doubt he contributes much this year, and the same with Tebow. Orton may be improved this year, but I think he will struggle. He may grasp the offense better, but their receivers and TEs are not very good right now. Unless Royal re-emerges, and either Thomas or Decker picks things up fast, this is definitely a weakness. If Jabar Gaffney is your number one guy, then receiver is not a strength of your team. Orton may be helped by a more productive running game, but the line may struggle too, with all their injuries. So Orton may play better, but I'm not sure how much he will be able to produce. I think Marshall's presence made Orton's numbers look better than they probably should have looked. He won't have Marshall this year.
Yeah, Ayers especially has to prove himself as does Smith although Smith is also surrounded by a lot of talent in the secondary so it's a bit more understandable why he hasn't stepped in immediately as a starter at say CB. I have read that Alphonso Smith looked much better during minicamps this year so hopefully he's taken that next step.I think training camp and preseason will show how far Ayers, Smith, and some of the other defensive rookies (David Bruton and Darcel McBath both impressed last year on special teams and at safety) have come in their second year.
Outside of Ryan Clady, some starters have become healthy now (including Ryan Harris who missed the last 8 games IIRC) and they are much deeper overall. They have drafted Zane Beadles, Eric Olsen, and J.D. Walton this year on top of G Seth Olsen last year. I think the improvement in the running game will definitely help offset the loss of Marshall a little bit in the passing game.
This season, they are basically going to have to replace 135 catches (Marshall, Scheffler, and Hillis). It is rather doable when you break it down.
- Jabar Gaffney: He had 54 catches last season despite mostly being in a WR2 role. He should see let's say 70-80 catches.
- Eddie Royal: Had just 37 catches and started 12 games. He should be around 50-60 catches minimum.
- Daniel Graham: He had 28 catches last season and can easily step in and "produce" what Scheffler did. Richard Quinn should also see the field a bit more in his 2nd Season.
- Brandon Lloyd: He had just 8 catches and should see the field a bit more. He can contribute 10-15 catches.
- Kenny McKinley: He's a 2nd Season player at WR and a guy that McDaniels is very high on. He may see the field sparingly or compete with Brandon Lloyd for the other catches.
- Demaryius Thomas/Eric Decker: The two rookies this season. Thomas will be relied upon but expectations should be about 20-30 catches for each of them.
- Knowshon Moreno: Started just 9 games and had 28 catches. He should start all 16 games and will help fill the void of Marshall.
- Correll Buckhalter: Started just 7 games and had 31 catches. If he can stay healthy, he too can help offset some of Marshall's contributions.
Last year Denver had 341 catches. So let's try and break it down to "high end" expectations.
- Jabar Gaffney 80 Catches, Eddie Royal 60 Catches, Daniel Graham 30 Catches, Richard Quinn 5 Catches, Brandon Lloyd 20 Catches, Kenny McKinley 10 Catches, Demaryius Thomas 35 Catches, Eric Decker 10 Catches, Knowshon Moreno 45 Catches, and Correll Buckhalter 35 Catches.
That would come out to a total of 330 catches. Just 11 fewer than last season's totals and I'm probably being conservative on some of the above players. At the same time, none of those would be that far out of the realm of possibility either given the individuals involved.