What happened to waiting to draft QB? (1 Viewer)

[bbuster]

For those of you who have already had some drafts, have QB's been going off the board a lot earlier than usual? I know FBG's have always recommended waiting on the QB position, but according to the DD, the ADP's of QB's seems really high this year. I'm seeing guys like Romo going in the 3rd round. Is this because the mid level QB's are weaker/less predictable than in the past or is this just another example of how a real FF draft is always extremely different than what the DD says?

 

[None_More_Black]

For those of you who have already had some drafts, have QB's been going off the board a lot earlier than usual? I know FBG's have always recommended waiting on the QB position, but according to the DD, the ADP's of QB's seems really high this year. I'm seeing guys like Romo going in the 3rd round. Is this because the mid level QB's are weaker/less predictable than in the past or is this just another example of how a real FF draft is always extremely different than what the DD says?

I think it's because it's a deeper, flatter RB class this year. People are looking to get an advantage at the QB position because they see a lot of mediocrity at the rb position. I'm usually a draft a qb late guy and had good success with this strategy but I'm looking at Brees or Romo with an earl third round in my big money, 6pt td league this year.

 

[gbill2004]

One guy in my league took Romo first overall, and Peyton Manning in the second round. This is a start 2 QB league. He is stacked at QB (obviously), but questionable at RB (McFadden, Stewart, and Kevin Smith) and his WRs are pretty weak as well...

Another GM in our league took Eli Manning in the second round!!!

 

[Anonymous Internet User]

One guy in my league took Romo first overall, and Peyton Manning in the second round. This is a start 2 QB league. He is stacked at QB (obviously), but questionable at RB (McFadden, Stewart, and Kevin Smith) and his WRs are pretty weak as well...Another GM in our league took Eli Manning in the second round!!!

I think that makes no sense. Even if it is a 10 team league, why would Peyton last til 2.10 in a start 2QB league? Someone dropped the ball ...

 

[Jello_Biafra]

One guy in my league took Romo first overall, and Peyton Manning in the second round. This is a start 2 QB league. He is stacked at QB (obviously), but questionable at RB (McFadden, Stewart, and Kevin Smith) and his WRs are pretty weak as well...Another GM in our league took Eli Manning in the second round!!!

Eli went before Peyton?

 

[MAC_32]

Much like the NFL FFB is a copycat game. Elite QB's and WR's did well last year, so the majority are thinking they'll do the same this year. I expected this.

 

[kylechoffman]

One guy in my league took Romo first overall, and Peyton Manning in the second round. This is a start 2 QB league. He is stacked at QB (obviously), but questionable at RB (McFadden, Stewart, and Kevin Smith) and his WRs are pretty weak as well...Another GM in our league took Eli Manning in the second round!!!

I think that makes no sense. Even if it is a 10 team league, why would Peyton last til 2.10 in a start 2QB league? Someone dropped the ball ...

Yeah I agree - I would have taken two stud qbs in the first two rounds if possible. Mcdaddy, stewart and k smith isnt too bad considering..

 

[FavreCo]

Full blown NFL RBBC, that's what happened.

 

[gbill2004]

One guy in my league took Romo first overall, and Peyton Manning in the second round. This is a start 2 QB league. He is stacked at QB (obviously), but questionable at RB (McFadden, Stewart, and Kevin Smith) and his WRs are pretty weak as well...Another GM in our league took Eli Manning in the second round!!!

Eli went before Peyton?

No. Peyton went early second round, Eli went late second round. Guess the Eli guy really figures that Eli will have a breakout year this season.

 

[coolnerd]

Remember that because the genral sentiment of this board's leadership is to wait on QBs that does not mean to violate value in order to do so. For example, in the magazine's mock draft QBs went as follows.

2nd: Brady (Dodds, btw), peyton

3rd: Romo

4th Palmer, Brees

5th: Big Ben, McNabb

6th Hasselbeck

The biggest lesson, I have learned is to focus on recognizing and drafting value. That should be rule one even if it causes you to violate all the other rules discussed here or in a "perfect" draft article.

 

[Anonymous Internet User]

One guy in my league took Romo first overall, and Peyton Manning in the second round. This is a start 2 QB league. He is stacked at QB (obviously), but questionable at RB (McFadden, Stewart, and Kevin Smith) and his WRs are pretty weak as well...Another GM in our league took Eli Manning in the second round!!!

Eli went before Peyton?

No. Peyton went early second round, Eli went late second round. Guess the Eli guy really figures that Eli will have a breakout year this season.

why did that guy get to pick 1.01 and then pick early again in the second round to take Peyton before Eli?

 

[the rover]

There's a huge drop-off after Brady, Manning, Romo and Brees. Owners are quick to jump on these guys. After that, people seem content to wait until the next tier.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

For those of you who have already had some drafts, have QB's been going off the board a lot earlier than usual? I know FBG's have always recommended waiting on the QB position, but according to the DD, the ADP's of QB's seems really high this year. I'm seeing guys like Romo going in the 3rd round. Is this because the mid level QB's are weaker/less predictable than in the past or is this just another example of how a real FF draft is always extremely different than what the DD says?

I think it's because it's a deeper, flatter RB class this year. People are looking to get an advantage at the QB position because they see a lot of mediocrity at the rb position. I'm usually a draft a qb late guy and had good success with this strategy but I'm looking at Brees or Romo with an earl third round in my big money, 6pt td league this year.

I do think that has something to do with it. In drafts so far, it at least appears like you can get some decent backs in round 4, 5 and 6. That allows you a little freedom in round 3 to get a Romo or a Brees.

 

[Anonymous Internet User]

There's a huge drop-off after Brady, Manning, Romo and Brees. Owners are quick to jump on these guys. After that, people seem content to wait until the next tier.

I don't think Palmer and Big Ben are too far from those 4. I'd say the fall-off is after that when you look at riskier guys like Anderson, Favre, McNabb, etc.

 

[bbuster]

Remember that because the genral sentiment of this board's leadership is to wait on QBs that does not mean to violate value in order to do so. For example, in the magazine's mock draft QBs went as follows. 2nd: Brady (Dodds, btw), peyton3rd: Romo4th Palmer, Brees5th: Big Ben, McNabb6th HasselbeckThe biggest lesson, I have learned is to focus on recognizing and drafting value. That should be rule one even if it causes you to violate all the other rules discussed here or in a "perfect" draft article.

I still think I would try to wait at least until it's time to grab a McNabb, Ben, or Matt. Last year was the first year that I had P. Manning because of the value(he fell to the late 2nd) and the rest of the draft was tough because of it.Of course the value of getting Gates made it even rougher.

 

[Binky The Doormat]

I think QBs are going off a bit more quickly than in years past because of the Brady factor - enhanced by the tremendous drop off after Manning/Romo/Brees. We all generally have short-term memories when it comes to this stuff and when Brady separates himself from everyone by almost 100 pts in even a 4pt TD league it tends to stick with people.

After looking at ADPs from MFL for last I was amazed - it only seems like they are going off the board sooner this year. The only difference is the QB2 is being taken at spot #12 as opposed to spot #18 in 2007. Almost all the rest of the QB spots through the 1st 5 rds are actually being taken BEFORE they are being taken this year so far (actual drafts only).

What is good to keep in mind - the top 4 QBs were off the board by 2.10; the top 6 QBs last year were off the board by the tail end of the 3rd - so people weren't waiting as much as many say they did.

2007 ADP

1. Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB 1.88 1 158 3936

2. Jackson, Steven STL RB 2.92 1 181 3515

3. Johnson, Larry KCC RB* 4.43 1 163 3518

4. Gore, Frank SFO RB 6.00 1 242 3500

5. Addai, Joseph IND RB 7.36 1 246 3894

6. Manning, Peyton IND QB 8.28 1 161 3823

7. Alexander, Shaun SEA RB 8.98 1 174 3863

8. Westbrook, Brian PHI RB 9.71 1 247 3536

9. Parker, Willie PIT RB* 10.42 1 160 3595

10. Bush, Reggie NOS RB 10.93 1 179 3562

11. Johnson, Rudi CIN RB 12.57 1 169 3560

12. Maroney, Laurence NEP RB 14.47 1 248 3894

13. Henry, Travis DEN RB 16.78 1 237 3525

14. McGahee, Willis BAL RB 18.03 1 168 3590

15. Grant, Ryan GBP RB 18.72 1 226 364

16. Smith, Steve CAR WR 19.21 1 209 3540

17. Johnson, Chad CIN WR 19.53 1 173 3568

18. Palmer, Carson CIN QB 20.20 1 166 3469

19. Harrison, Marvin IND WR 22.31 1 178 3942

20. Brady, Tom NEP QB 22.43 1 167 3836

21. Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB 22.84 1 307 3926

22. Brees, Drew NOS QB 24.48 1 213 3545

23. Owens, Terrell DAL WR 24.96 1 168 3960

24. Wayne, Reggie IND WR 25.78 2 180 3987

25. Brown, Ronnie MIA RB* 25.92 1 170 3567

26. Holt, Torry STL WR 26.56 1 175 3589

27. James, Edgerrin ARI RB 28.35 1 159 3629

28. Benson, Cedric CHI RB* 28.83 1 198 3609

29. Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR 31.18 2 175 3590

30. Portis, Clinton WAS RB 32.67 1 191 3920

31. Bulger, Marc STL QB 33.24 1 174 3517

32. Williams, Roy DET WR* 34.03 3 245 3558

33. Gates, Antonio SDC TE 34.70 2 182 3913

34. Houshmandzadeh, T.J. CIN WR 37.62 3 186 3595

35. Jones, Thomas NYJ RB 37.65 1 181 3606

36. McNabb, Donovan PHI QB 38.78 1 197 3528

37. Graham, Earnest TBB RB 39.01 2 915 354

38. Colston, Marques NOS WR 39.23 2 240 3615

39. Jacobs, Brandon NYG RB 39.85 2 318 3942

40. Walker, Javon DEN WR 39.99 2 176 3596

41. Boldin, Anquan ARI WR 40.92 3 180 3615

42. Moss, Randy NEP WR 41.25 1 192 3977

43. Evans, Lee BUF WR 42.43 3 170 3615

44. Johnson, Andre HOU WR 44.72 4 191 3626

45. McAllister, Deuce NOS RB* 46.17 1 206 3614

46. Driver, Donald GBP WR 46.60 2 190 3945

47. Lynch, Marshawn BUF RB 47.59 1 643 3634

48. Peterson, Adrian MIN RB 48.39 1 641 3693

49. Burress, Plaxico NYG WR 50.01 4 193 3937

50. Barber, Marion DAL RB 51.04 1 211 3957

51. Williams, Carnell TBB RB* 52.84 4 261 3595

52. Ward, Hines PIT WR 54.94 1 214 3902

53. Romo, Tony DAL QB 55.89 1 235 3824

54. Bears, Chicago CHI Def 57.96 1 257 3165

55. Young, Vince TEN QB 58.22 2 283 3622 VY here ...heh heh - what the hell were we thinkin'?

56. Rivers, Philip SDC QB 60.60 1 247 3799

57. Green, Ahman HOU RB* 61.22 4 373 3569

58. Branch, Deion SEA WR 61.54 7 227 3882

59. Gonzalez, Tony KCC TE 62.28 2 235 3540

60. Johnson, Calvin DET WR 62.37 1 643 3612

2008 thus far

1. Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB 2.07 1 74 419

2. Peterson, Adrian MIN RB 2.57 1 65 407

3. Jackson, Steven STL RB 4.92 1 77 409

4. Westbrook, Brian PHI RB 5.17 1 68 417

5. Addai, Joseph IND RB 5.88 1 98 417

6. Brady, Tom NEP QB 8.43 1 70 404 ...exact same spot as Manning in 2007

7. Gore, Frank SFO RB 9.88 2 196 409

8. Barber, Marion DAL RB 10.30 1 74 414

9. Moss, Randy NEP WR 11.88 1 125 415

10. Lynch, Marshawn BUF RB 13.02 1 96 403

11. Portis, Clinton WAS RB 13.60 1 124 420

12. Manning, Peyton IND QB 15.54 1 72 413 ...sooner than QB2 in 2007 which was #18

13. Wayne, Reggie IND WR 15.97 1 127 417

14. Johnson, Larry KCC RB 17.12 2 104 419

15. Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB 19.10 4 112 410

16. Owens, Terrell DAL WR 19.23 1 126 421

17. Edwards, Braylon CLE WR 20.41 5 128 417

18. McGahee, Willis BAL RB 20.94 2 96 412

19. Grant, Ryan GBP RB 21.05 2 108 420

20. Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR 21.23 4 121 420

21. Romo, Tony DAL QB 21.45 1 114 414 ...LATER than 2007 QB3 which was #20

22. Bush, Reggie NOS RB 22.95 1 161 409

23. Johnson, Andre HOU WR 23.78 3 123 420

24. Colston, Marques NOS WR 25.24 2 130 424

25. Houshmandzadeh, T.J. CIN WR 28.59 4 124 426

26. Brees, Drew NOS QB 28.90 2 116 410 ...LATER than 2007 QB4 which was #22 (and was Brees)

27. Smith, Steve CAR WR 30.59 11 129 411

28. Johnson, Chad CIN WR 31.42 3 122 423

29. Lewis, Jamal CLE RB 32.93 3 283 428

30. Brown, Ronnie MIA RB 36.62 1 126 418

31. Maroney, Laurence NEP RB 37.44 2 105 416

32. Welker, Wes NEP WR 38.28 5 133 423

33. McFadden, Darren OAK RB 38.38 1 461 427

34. Burress, Plaxico NYG WR 38.63 1 137 431

35. Palmer, Carson CIN QB 38.87 6 131 412 ...LATER than 2007 QB5 which was taken #31

36. Holt, Torry STL WR 39.32 2 168 422

37. Boldin, Anquan ARI WR 39.91 2 136 420

38. Marshall, Brandon DEN WR 40.79 11 207 412

39. Jacobs, Brandon NYG RB 40.95 2 160 424

40. Witten, Jason DAL TE 41.66 4 228 423

41. Turner, Michael ATL RB 42.14 3 168 418

42. Roethlisberger, Ben PIT QB 42.93 2 119 412 ...LATER than 2007 QB6 which was taken at #36

43. Gates, Antonio SDC TE 44.62 10 225 418

44. Parker, Willie PIT RB 45.25 5 197 422

45. Williams, Roy DET WR 45.98 3 135 425

46. Holmes, Santonio PIT WR 47.11 5 194 431

47. Johnson, Calvin DET WR 49.45 4 143 409

48. Winslow, Kellen CLE TE 50.34 11 226 421

49. Graham, Earnest TBB RB 50.36 7 303 425

50. Willis, Patrick SFO LB 53.57 1 163 81

51. Jennings, Greg GBP WR 53.62 10 131 415

52. Anderson, Derek CLE QB 53.79 1 140 419 ...only one spot different for 2007 QB7 taken at #53

53. Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB 56.89 2 462 417

54. James, Edgerrin ARI RB 57.57 5 315 422

55. Jones, Thomas NYJ RB 58.08 11 204 428

56. Bowe, Dwayne KCC WR 58.71 7 145 414

57. Gonzalez, Tony KCC TE 61.72 11 223 418

58. White, LenDale TEN RB 63.18 9 173 417

59. Evans, Lee BUF WR 63.72 15 150 414

60. McNabb, Donovan PHI QB 66.60 6 189 414 ...LATER than 2007 QB8 which was taken at #55

Also QB9 was taken at pick #56 in 2007 as well.

 

[NoFBinLA]

For those of you who have already had some drafts, have QB's been going off the board a lot earlier than usual? I know FBG's have always recommended waiting on the QB position, but according to the DD, the ADP's of QB's seems really high this year. I'm seeing guys like Romo going in the 3rd round. Is this because the mid level QB's are weaker/less predictable than in the past or is this just another example of how a real FF draft is always extremely different than what the DD says?

I think it's because it's a deeper, flatter RB class this year. People are looking to get an advantage at the QB position because they see a lot of mediocrity at the rb position. I'm usually a draft a qb late guy and had good success with this strategy but I'm looking at Brees or Romo with an earl third round in my big money, 6pt td league this year.

I do think that has something to do with it. In drafts so far, it at least appears like you can get some decent backs in round 4, 5 and 6. That allows you a little freedom in round 3 to get a Romo or a Brees.

In the draft I did this weekend there was A TON of value in rounds 5-7 (and frankly beyond if you know where to look). Now, we had Brady and Manning in the first, Romo and Brees in the lat second, so that allowed that value to drop, but it's not the only draft I had QBs go early in at all. Just the most extreme.My theory was, if Brady dropped to me in the 1st, roll the dice - IMO the value at RB especially can be grabbed in those rounds. Brady did not drop to me, so I'll never know if I was right, since I would have drafted very differently than the Brady owner did.

 

[the rover]

There's a huge drop-off after Brady, Manning, Romo and Brees. Owners are quick to jump on these guys. After that, people seem content to wait until the next tier.

I don't think Palmer and Big Ben are too far from those 4. I'd say the fall-off is after that when you look at riskier guys like Anderson, Favre, McNabb, etc.

looking at drafts so far on MFL, (something like 480 drafts), it really seems to be the top 4 that were going early. Brady 8th overall, Manning 15, Romo 21 and Brees 28. Palmer was nearly a full round later at 38.looking at FBG's projections, there's a pretty big drop from the first 4 to the next 2, and then another gap after that. so far, the MFL drafts and the two I've done seem pretty consistent.