Anarchy99
Footballguy
First I researched all team records from 2006-2015 to identify "extreme" records in one possession games. I arbitrarily selected +5 win differential and -5 loss loss differential as "extreme." By that I mean, I considered teams that went 6-1, 7-2, 0-6, etc. in one score games. I defined "one possession" as a W or L by 8 points or less.
In that 10 year stretch, there were 18 teams that had a differential of +5 in the win column in close games. There were 19 teams that had -5 on the wrong side of their ledger (5 more losses than wins in one possession game). I also looked up how those teams fared in season X + 1. I hypothesized that winning or losing close games would typically even out, as it is extremely difficult to keep winning close games (and equally unlikely to keep losing them). As a side note, I found that poor teams actually got more of their wins in close games, as they were unlikely to win many games by 9 or more points (but very likely to get trounced).
Of the teams with excellent records in one possession games, those team's records in close (one possession) games was a combined 129-27 (.827) in YEAR X. In YEAR X + 1, those teams combined to have a 73.5-65.5 (.525) record in one possession game. The overall win total of those teams fell off by an average of 3.25 wins. As a quirk, the only teams that actually improved their record the following year were the 2006, 2008, and 2012 Colts. But for 31 other franchises, having a +5 win differential in close games meant a decrease in their win total the following year.
For the teams on the wrong side of close games, they ALL had better overall record in all games the following season. In YEAR X, the combined record in one score games was 32-143 (.183). In YEAR X + 1, those teams posted a record of 89-77 (.536) in one score games. The average win total on average over the full season was +4 wins.
I am sure by now some of you are thinking WHO CARES?!?
But the 2016 saw an inordinate number of teams that qualified in both the +5 wins and -5 losses categories in one possession games. OAK (9-2), MIA (8-2), NYG (8-3), and DAL (7-2) were the teams on the +5 wins side. JAX (2-8), LAC (4-9), CIN (1.5-6.5), PHI (1-6), and CHI (1-6) were the teams that things went south in close games.
Clearly not everything will work out exactly to previous patterns and averages, but based on history, the expected records of those teams this year would be:
OAK 12-4 in 2016 to 9-7 in 2017
MIA 10-6 in 2016 to 7-9 in 2017
NYG 11-5 in 2016 to 8-8 in 2017
DAL 13-3 in 2016 to 10-6 in 2017
JAX 3-13 in 2016 to 7-9 in 2017
LAC 5-11 in 2016 to 9-7 in 2017
CIN 6.5-9.5 in 2016 to 10.5-5.5 in 2017
PHI 7-9 in 2016 to 11-5 in 2017
CHI 3-13 in 2016 to 7-9 in 2017
W certainly can revisit this once the season is over to see the same trend continues. There may be other factors at play here as well (healthy teams vs. unhealthy teams, general regression or improvement to the mean, easier/harder schedules, personnel or coaching changes, etc.) But the numbers are the numbers, and it will be interesting to see how things play out.
In that 10 year stretch, there were 18 teams that had a differential of +5 in the win column in close games. There were 19 teams that had -5 on the wrong side of their ledger (5 more losses than wins in one possession game). I also looked up how those teams fared in season X + 1. I hypothesized that winning or losing close games would typically even out, as it is extremely difficult to keep winning close games (and equally unlikely to keep losing them). As a side note, I found that poor teams actually got more of their wins in close games, as they were unlikely to win many games by 9 or more points (but very likely to get trounced).
Of the teams with excellent records in one possession games, those team's records in close (one possession) games was a combined 129-27 (.827) in YEAR X. In YEAR X + 1, those teams combined to have a 73.5-65.5 (.525) record in one possession game. The overall win total of those teams fell off by an average of 3.25 wins. As a quirk, the only teams that actually improved their record the following year were the 2006, 2008, and 2012 Colts. But for 31 other franchises, having a +5 win differential in close games meant a decrease in their win total the following year.
For the teams on the wrong side of close games, they ALL had better overall record in all games the following season. In YEAR X, the combined record in one score games was 32-143 (.183). In YEAR X + 1, those teams posted a record of 89-77 (.536) in one score games. The average win total on average over the full season was +4 wins.
I am sure by now some of you are thinking WHO CARES?!?
But the 2016 saw an inordinate number of teams that qualified in both the +5 wins and -5 losses categories in one possession games. OAK (9-2), MIA (8-2), NYG (8-3), and DAL (7-2) were the teams on the +5 wins side. JAX (2-8), LAC (4-9), CIN (1.5-6.5), PHI (1-6), and CHI (1-6) were the teams that things went south in close games.
Clearly not everything will work out exactly to previous patterns and averages, but based on history, the expected records of those teams this year would be:
OAK 12-4 in 2016 to 9-7 in 2017
MIA 10-6 in 2016 to 7-9 in 2017
NYG 11-5 in 2016 to 8-8 in 2017
DAL 13-3 in 2016 to 10-6 in 2017
JAX 3-13 in 2016 to 7-9 in 2017
LAC 5-11 in 2016 to 9-7 in 2017
CIN 6.5-9.5 in 2016 to 10.5-5.5 in 2017
PHI 7-9 in 2016 to 11-5 in 2017
CHI 3-13 in 2016 to 7-9 in 2017
W certainly can revisit this once the season is over to see the same trend continues. There may be other factors at play here as well (healthy teams vs. unhealthy teams, general regression or improvement to the mean, easier/harder schedules, personnel or coaching changes, etc.) But the numbers are the numbers, and it will be interesting to see how things play out.