Helaire-ious
Footballguy
Many folks don't look at cost vs actual or perceived value so I don't think his owners will part with him for anything a buyer would pay right now.
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What is Etienne's value now in dynasty? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter tombonneau
- Start date
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I wanna see where he goes in rookie drafts now.
With everything we know guessing ADP around 13-14
Liquid Tension
Footballguy
I think the same question hold water in many different formats (semi dynasty leagues (10 keeper) where does he go?) Also, and I think this is the most important question and maybe something for Bremel, but how have RB's come back from this injury? While everyone is different, understanding this can give yourself your own valuation.
I'd go even lower and say 16 or so. My biggest concern is, what if James Robinson is just really good, and has another great year with this coaching staff? Etienne might end up just being a 3rd down RB going forward.
I drafted him in my QRRWWFDK [edit: PPR] dynasty league at 1.07. Don't regret it in the slightest. But, I'm stacked with WR's and our league is RB-crazy usually, so they can be hard to come by. Unlikely as it may be, his upside if he hits and gets serious usage, is worth taking the chance, in my opinion. Sure, "Kamara-esque" is a pipe dream. But I'm a dreamer, and I'm not the only one.
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ericttspikes
Footballguy
I took him 12th in a dynasty draft tonight. I have Henry, Chubb, Sanders and Fournette so I didn't necessarily need him this year. I wasn't even a big fan of his, but I figured he'd of been a top 3 pick if he didn't get injured and since I don't need him it was worth a stash on IR and I was able to pick up another player at the end of the draft. Fingers crossed he has successful surgery and can come back next year. Worth taking a swing from where I was drafting.
tombonneau
Footballguy
Thanks all for updates on his real time 2020 draft value. I assumed late first would be his floor.
undercover
Footballguy
He went at 2.8 in our 10 team Rookie / FA draft.
jm192
Footballguy
My understanding:DropKick said:
This is the sort of thing that should fully heal with surgery and shouldn't significantly change how he runs/plays. I think he'll be himself/full strength/normal next season.
It sucks because it's a year off of his career and he's already an older back. James Robinson coming off a 1,000 yard rushing season now has a chance to show Urban and crew what he can do and endear himself to the coaching staff.
Mr. Peterson
Footballguy
3 people voted Early First. lol.
I’m gonna go ahead and guess those are owners who took him way too early in Rookie drafts and are delusional in hopes to getting that value back. Haha
I’m gonna go ahead and guess those are owners who took him way too early in Rookie drafts and are delusional in hopes to getting that value back. Haha
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
They took him “way too early” before he was injured? What was way too early then?
Mr. Peterson
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Sounds like revisionist history to me.
In the polls I did earlier this year ETN went at pick 4 in all non 2QB formats.
In my opinion he should have gone before Chase and Pitts in non TE premium formats.
I prefer his skill set over Najee Harris as well but that being a coin flip due to Harris landing with a more favorable team.
Yet now ETN is a older RB missing his rookie season.
He will be 23 years old in January. A 22 year old rookie is not older than the average age of a rookie BTW but something people will say to try to drive the price down.
Based on the study I did a RB rookie season is the least productive of their first 6 seasons in the league on average for RB who were successful at all.
40% of the sample size of those players were 22 years old when they were drafted.
Incidentally Najee Harris is 23 years old and will be 24 years old in March. He is 10 months older than ETN is.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
BoomGoesTheDynamite
Footballguy
I got him earlier this week at 2.9 in a 12 team-1QB league rookie/free agent draft that has 1 IR spot. I'm going to stash him for the year on the IR spot
Not trying to be contentious, but post-injury I drafted him at pick 7, *might* have drafted him at 6 or mayyyybe even 5 had I been in such a situation. Pre-injury, I would never have dreamed of letting him get past pick 3. But most certainly would have taken him at 2, only other contended would be Javonte. Just differing opinions.
Blick
Footballguy
I would have and still would take Pitts, Chase, and Harris (only because of landing spot). Now, I'd probably jump Williams ahead of him. Maybe Smith...
Boston
Footballguy
Definitely has legit value but a lot of moving parts right now…will he be back close to 100%, new Coach still to be named, Robinson’s injury timeline and do they bring in another quality RB due to Robinson’s injury…smoke needs to clear a little bit on those questions to get more specific…right now I think he is worth a first round pick but not sure where in the first yet.
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Blick
Footballguy
There’s no way I’d take a 2nd for him. In this draft class, I’d want a mid 1st. If you believe he can get past the injury, there’s no reason to think his value is at least back to where it was originally. Especially given Robinson’s injury.
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My point was to start with a 2nd and see how the owner responds. As the draft gets closer last year's out of sight out of mind players sometimes lose a little value and draft picks of the upcoming draft gain perceived value as people want to be more involved in the draft. It's a starting point.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Guessing the ETN owners wont respond favorably to a lowball offer right after his value increased due to the Robinson injury.
I mean, its pretty obvious his market value just increased with that injury. Impossible for it not to have increased.
I mean, its pretty obvious his market value just increased with that injury. Impossible for it not to have increased.
Marauder
Footballguy
If someone offered me a 2022 2nd for him, I'd reject with no counter. It would be the starting and ending point.
True but his injury isn't a cake walk and auto return to form either. He does have risk but most boils down to what you thought of him pre-injury. I suppose if you actually drafted him then you were at least somewhat a believer. I was/am not so my view is likely skewed because of that.
So maybe I should change my statement to research when he was drafted in your league to see if the guy was a believer (taken early) or a guy that took him because the value was just too good (mid to late 1st pre injury or late 2nd post injury).
Bottom line he is a polarizing player and although the Robinson injury is a net benefit you have no idea what coach will be brought it (ETN drafted by Meyer) or if any other competition will be brought in by the new staff. That also has risk involved.
zamboni
Footballguy
Agree 100%. We’ll have a better idea come March/April. The Jags have a ton of cap space to use in FA. While they need to fill much bigger holes than RB, it might only take a modest 1 or 2 year contract to bring in a Mack/Penny/Michel type and add needed depth/competition.
Agreed, the time to get him for cheap has passed. No one is selling low now if they held this long and Robinson just tore his Achilles. Late 1st might be enough to pry him away still but I doubt it.
IMO, anything higher than that and too much risk, will be a new coaching regime, coming off a not-automatic return injury, 2nd most cap space in the league. At the very least you would expect JAX to bring in someone in FA to at least cover Robinson's injury and that person may or may not be a direct threat to ETN.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
If someone drafted him after his injury, obviously your starting offer HAS to be higher than the pick they used to get him.
I guess some leagues do have terrible owners who draft a guy knowing he is out for the year, hold him a whole year, watch his competition get hurt, watch the idiot coach get fired, and then all of a sudden sell for less than they paid. It's rare but I guess it does happen.
I guess some leagues do have terrible owners who draft a guy knowing he is out for the year, hold him a whole year, watch his competition get hurt, watch the idiot coach get fired, and then all of a sudden sell for less than they paid. It's rare but I guess it does happen.
rockaction
Footballguy
I honestly don't see how this guy's value has increased since his Lisfranc injury. Now that seems a little off. People want an early-to-mid first for this guy, who was in a running back class bereft of a combine? Love handles Etienne?
Gally is right on this guy. You really have to believe in him to think he's worth a mid-first. He didn't go above three in most drafts. Now his value is constant after an injury that plagues guys their whole career? No way.
For the people who are saying they'd snort at an early second, I say forget about that. I wouldn't offer a late first for him. I'd stick with this class, because even though its perception is weak, they've got more on tape and will have to prove it at a combine.
Gally is right on this guy. You really have to believe in him to think he's worth a mid-first. He didn't go above three in most drafts. Now his value is constant after an injury that plagues guys their whole career? No way.
For the people who are saying they'd snort at an early second, I say forget about that. I wouldn't offer a late first for him. I'd stick with this class, because even though its perception is weak, they've got more on tape and will have to prove it at a combine.
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ghostguy123
Footballguy
Who said this??
His value is higher now than the day got injured, not the day before he got injured. Also his value is a smidge higher right now than it was right before Robinson's injury.
Obviously his value is not higher now than it was right before he got hurt.
Another thing, the perceived value of this draft seems to be lower pick for pick than last year.
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