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Wow a good discussion, you guys keep this up and we can get rid of the clowns over at ESPN. I think your two posts really give a Turner owner or Potential Turner owner somthing to chew on. I am one of those owners and I really think he's a class act and could be a stud, maybe. But, If I get a real good offer I would probably take it. I just dont really know where to put his value in terms of Draft picks or talent.
In terms of NFL talent, I think he's similar to MBIII (running style, age, overall talent level, mileage, all compare well). Obviously, MBIII is in an outstanding situation, so MBIII's fantasy value has to be seen as higher than Turner's. Without knowing where Turner ends up, much less whether he figures to be the primary ball carrier, it's hard to say more specifically than that.Edit to add: Interestingly enough, there is a serious belief among some that Jones would draft McFadden if given the opportunity despite having MBIII on the roster. Just sayin'.
What "conclusion" am I making? That his chances aren't good? We're discussing what we expect to happen, and that always means we don't know for sure. Welcome to fantasy football!
Of course we don't know. Everything could go fine for Turner with his new team and those who believed he wouldn't be a decent FF starter might be starting to admit their mistake but an injury could change all of that.I'm not questioning your conclusion, just how you reached it. Saying he won't succeed just because the rest of us can't find another RB in the free agency era who meets the three criteria you set forth is just a little too convenient.
I also think that with the Hype we have all aroused in Turner, he is going to have to have at least a top 15 RB year. I think anything less and many folks are going to be dissapointed. I dont know but cant wait to see how it all pans out.
In another thread people were talking about Mark "stink" Schlereth being one of the best announcers...FWIW, to paraphrase he said something like someone will be getting a stud and he will make a huge impact in this league. he really liked him
Turner is MUCH faster than MBIII, but MB has better balanceIn terms of NFL talent, I think he's similar to MBIII (running style, age, overall talent level, mileage, all compare well). Obviously, MBIII is in an outstanding situation, so MBIII's fantasy value has to be seen as higher than Turner's. Without knowing where Turner ends up, much less whether he figures to be the primary ball carrier, it's hard to say more specifically than that.Edit to add: Interestingly enough, there is a serious belief among some that Jones would draft McFadden if given the opportunity despite having MBIII on the roster. Just sayin'.
That painful lesson only applies if people paid a lot to get him or are really banking on him as the savior to their team. If you paid, say Vernand Morency straight up, and stashed him on the bottom of your bench the risk/reward factor is too juicy to pass up. A lot of people, redman I'm not singling you out - your point is objective and valid, want to be so right and have been extremely vocal on this board about Michael Turner being a flop. If burner, in fact, flames out - well in my situation I gave up next to nothing for a shot at tremendous upside based on what he has shown as LT2's backup. I think a lot of people have done precisely what I did and you have to love those pot odds!
A quick google search reveals Turner's 40 time was 4.95, and Barbers was 4.55. That (if accurate) doesn't qualify as "much faster".Turner is MUCH faster than MBIII, but MB has better balanceIn terms of NFL talent, I think he's similar to MBIII (running style, age, overall talent level, mileage, all compare well). Obviously, MBIII is in an outstanding situation, so MBIII's fantasy value has to be seen as higher than Turner's. Without knowing where Turner ends up, much less whether he figures to be the primary ball carrier, it's hard to say more specifically than that.Edit to add: Interestingly enough, there is a serious belief among some that Jones would draft McFadden if given the opportunity despite having MBIII on the roster. Just sayin'.
4.49 according to page 4.A quick google search reveals Turner's 40 time was 4.95, and Barbers was 4.55. That (if accurate) doesn't qualify as "much faster".Turner is MUCH faster than MBIII, but MB has better balanceIn terms of NFL talent, I think he's similar to MBIII (running style, age, overall talent level, mileage, all compare well). Obviously, MBIII is in an outstanding situation, so MBIII's fantasy value has to be seen as higher than Turner's. Without knowing where Turner ends up, much less whether he figures to be the primary ball carrier, it's hard to say more specifically than that.Edit to add: Interestingly enough, there is a serious belief among some that Jones would draft McFadden if given the opportunity despite having MBIII on the roster. Just sayin'.
Sorry, typo. You have it right. 4.49.4.49 according to page 4.A quick google search reveals Turner's 40 time was 4.95, and Barbers was 4.55. That (if accurate) doesn't qualify as "much faster".Turner is MUCH faster than MBIII, but MB has better balanceIn terms of NFL talent, I think he's similar to MBIII (running style, age, overall talent level, mileage, all compare well). Obviously, MBIII is in an outstanding situation, so MBIII's fantasy value has to be seen as higher than Turner's. Without knowing where Turner ends up, much less whether he figures to be the primary ball carrier, it's hard to say more specifically than that.Edit to add: Interestingly enough, there is a serious belief among some that Jones would draft McFadden if given the opportunity despite having MBIII on the roster. Just sayin'.
Maurile Tremblay already covered this back in post 184, but here's an excerpt from his USA Today link regarding Turner's combine performance.
Sounds like he's a bit faster than Barber...
I think one of the best examples of this that comes to my mind is Priest Holmes. Was stuck behind Ricky Williams in college, and Jamal Lewis at Baltimore. Finally got some nice playing time when Jamal went down, and posted nice numbers. Went on to KC in Free Agency, I think he was pretty decent there...
RBs with over 200 career points of VBD, that started six or fewer games through the first two seasons of their career. Not many, but a few studs on that list with several top 3 finishes in a season.
GS VBD Name0 547 Ahman Green0 404 Wendell Tyler2 387 James Brooks3 365 Larry Johnson1 331 Chris Warren0 322 Jamal Anderson6 319 Stephen Davis0 303 Gerald Riggs0 272 Joe Morris2 265 Mike Pruitt6 230 Dalton Hilliard5 229 Rudi Johnson0 218 Greg Pruitt2 212 Robert Smith
I think LT and MT are comparable as pure runners. LT is much better as a receiver. (And as a passer.)
Has there ever been a player who averaged 5.5 yards per carry over his first four years while learning from the best RB in the league, who then signed a $35+ million contract, but who subsequently failed to live up to expectations?You can make any player sound as good or as bad a prospect as you want by cherry-picking two or three factors to consider out of the hundreds that are relevant.
i agree
This ignores an important part of my criteria, which is that their original team let them go before they became the starter. Also, I wanted to limit this for obvious reasons to the FA/salary cap era. That narrows this list to the following:
[code]GS VBD Name0 547 Ahman GreenOk, then let's hear the "hundreds that are relevant", that is if this is not just Tremblayan hyperbole.
Well, there's a flaw in using that as part of your criteria. Turner was playing behind one of the all-time great running backs. There are probably guys in the Hall of Fame who, if on the Chargers roster the last few years, would have played behind Tomlinson. I'm not meaning to say Turner is Hall of Fame material. But how the heck would anyone beat out Tomlinson as a starter? I don't think that reflects badly on Turner at all.
I freely acknowledge that LT is a rare talent at RB, such that Turner's lack of opportunity may be fully and tidily explained by that fact alone. I believe, however, that we'll find out rather quickly in 2008 whether that's in fact the case. Let's not forget that Turner fell to the fifth round when he was drafted. And I still think that short of Turner lighting the world on fire, a rebuilding team like the Falcons could decide on draft day 2009 (if not this year) that a given rookie RB is too good to pass up at that spot in the draft. That's the nature of the risk that I see with Turner.
I'm not listing everything one should consider when evaluating a player's prospects. Here are a few: speed, power, strength, ability to read blocks, college production, NFL production, balance, ability to make yards after contact, toughness, intelligence, commitment to the game, age, durability, whether he's well liked or respected by teammates, ability to absorb information, how he responds to coaching, whether he can motivate himself, blocking ability, receiving ability, lateral quickness, ability to accelerate and change direction, open-field moves, whether he's had legal troubles, etc., etc., etc.Really, something like "whether he's changed teams or not" would be pretty low on the list.redman said:
I would be extremely surprised if Atlants drafted a RB in the first 3 rounds. Norwood is decent so that would be a terrible decision with so many other needsredman said:
You've got a new regime, so you never know re: Norwood. Suppose, however, that they reach their pick in the 3rd round and Jamaal Charles is still on the board. That's the sort of scenario that I could see playing out. I'm certain that they won't use a 1st rounder on a RB this year, which is why I think this would more likely play out in 2009 than this year.
