I don't think there is anything close to Richardson in this draft. I traded for him last year specifically because i thought he would be that special, not because he was the number one back in the draft.
I don't think comparing him to lacy is fair to either of them.
I do think he is close to Richardson, personally, but that wasn't my point. My point was - look at how stable 1st round RB value is after the 1st year. Look how much it can spike, however.Trade value wise, it isn't the risk we're making it out to be.
People brought up Ryan Mathews as negative example of bust potential. Even after all his issues - he's still going in the 4th round, right next to the 1.01.
You and I aren't on the same page, I don't think anyway. I evaluate prospects individually. Despite first round pedigree i never thought the prices for beanie, knowshon, dmc, etc matched the product... So I never bought them. Actually I did acquire knowshon, but not until he bottomed out last fall. Their values on the market peaked and dipped but never to the spot i thought made sense. I like Lacy more than those three, but Mathews is a good comp value wise to me actually. I know there is potential there, but I don't feel strong enough about them realizing it to make them a core piece to build around. My first three to four picks are always that, the foundation. I am not comfortable with lacy or Mathews as foundation pieces.
That's about how I see it as well. I think there are a future different questions at work here:
Are there any elite prospects in this draft?
If we're defining elite in terms of top 10 overall kind of talents, the answer is probably no. No RB in this draft will get picked in the top 10. It's unlikely that any WRs will. And it's a near certainty that none of them will go in the top 5. There also seems to be a general consensus that any QB picked in the top 10 will go that high more on the basis of need/positional importance than on the basis of merit. With that being the case, it's fair to say that this class is lacking elite prospects compared to the typical year. The discussion can end right there. This is not a strong draft. You have to go back to 2002 to find a draft class that didn't have a single RB or WR in the top 10. Ironically, that was the year that gave us numerous first round busts like Stallworth, Lelie, Walker, Duckett, and William Green.
Are there any elite players in this draft?
Almost certainly yes. Most draft classes yield a few legitimate Pro Bowl types. The tricky part is that many of them are not touted as elite prospects entering the league. Nobody thought LeSean McCoy, Ray Rice, MJD, Vincent Jackson, Chad Johnson, Steve Smith, Tom Brady, Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski, Clinton Portis, Greg Jennings, Reggie Wayne, Brandon Marshall, Roddy White, Victor Cruz, Randall Cobb, Wes Welker, Arian Foster, Alfred Morris, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, and Jamaal Charles were worth top 3 rookie picks when they were entering the NFL. In all likelihood, when we look back at this draft class a few years from now, some of the very best players will be guys who had minimal hype. It might turn out that someone like Justin Hunter, Christine Michael, Marquess Wilson, or Tyler Eifert is the real star of this draft. Those guys could become elite players, but they're certainly not elite prospects. They're not going to get picked in the top 10 of the draft. And since they aren't obvious candidates for the 1.01-1.04 spots, they aren't really relevant to the discussion.
Are there prospects in this draft that will carry high trade value?
There will be people in your league willing to pay a decent price for someone like Patterson, Lacy, Hopkins, or Allen. I always thought Beanie was crap and I thought Moreno was overrated, but there was still a market for them. We know that any young player who was a high pick will carry pretty decent trade value for the first 1-2 years if he shows any signs of promise whatsoever. So yes, the 1.01 pick will have value and you will have a chance to grab a valuable commodity there. Of course, everyone knows this. It's factored into the cost. Even in a weak year like this, nobody is going to give the 1.01 away. The question isn't whether it has value. The question is whether it has more value than what it costs. I personally doubt it. It is convenient to use the examples of Martin and Wilson because they've both seen their values spike to varying degrees, but it doesn't always work out that way. Guys like Moreno, Beanie, Ryan Williams, and Ingram saw their trade value fall steadily from day one. I took Ingram with the 1.01 pick a few years back. A year later I couldn't get anything higher than the 1.05 for him.
I'll stand by what I said. The guys you'll be looking at with the 1.01 this year wouldn't have gone any higher than 1.04-1.08 in last year's draft. It's almost certain that some of the prospects in this draft will exceed expectations like Doug Martin, LeSean McCoy, Vincent Jackson, and Brandon Marshall. On the other hand, it's almost certain that some of them will underwhelm from day one ala AJ Jenkins, Mark Ingram, Reggie Williams, Knowshon Moreno, Beanie Wells, Mike Williams, and Ted Ginn. As always, getting value for your pick will depend on your ability to distinguish the genuine stars from the frauds. That's always easier said than done, especially in a draft that doesn't have any automatic locks.
Especially the bolded.
