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What is the 1.01 rookie pick worth this year? (1 Viewer)

You know what, just the simple fact that so many people are debating this issue means the #1 pick DOES have significant value. Every league will have some people who value it like a 7th rounder in a startup, and some who will value it like a 3rd or 4th rounder. However, value is value. Value does not mean production.In this case, this year, since I have the #1 pick and I have a team that has a very good chance to compete, I have made up my mind to use that pick to try and trade it pretty much straight up for a player that I believe has a VERY high chance to produce well this year.Eric Decker is a nice example of that. If I could get Decker for the pick (which I can't) I would.Maybe in most other years I would stick with the pick. But this year, I am going with the philosophy of going after the more sure thing and take my chances that I am not giving up some future hall of fame fantasy stud. There WILL be some fantasy studs taken in this draft, but who are they?? And will you take them at pick #1???I am guessing I will not draft a fantasy stud at pick 1, so I am willing to trade it for a player of the same "perceived value" and take a shorter term perceived sure-thing production in a guy like Decker. Even guys like Andre Johnson and Roddy White (both of which I also can NOT get for pick 1 straight up in this league).

 
'JackReacher said:
I'm not saying I'm smarter/better informed than the pros but they get it wrong a ton
Very true. And I am not suggesting that we simply use draft position. I took Maclin over DHB. And Baldwin over Cobb, as an opposite example. But, again, plenty here liked Miller more than Martin before the draft. They quickly changed their position, and rightly so.I am a big Lacy guy and not a big Gio guy. But if Gio goes top 20, and Lacy goes in the 3rd - I value that more than my own opinion, and will likely value Gio more than Lacy.
 
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'JackReacher said:
I'm not saying I'm smarter/better informed than the pros but they get it wrong a ton
Very true. And I am not suggesting that we simply use draft position. I took Maclin over DHB. And Baldwin over Cobb, as an opposite example. But, again, plenty here liked Miller more than Martin before the draft. They quickly changed their position, and rightly so.I am a big Lacy guy and not a big Gio guy. But if Gio goes top 20, and Lacy goes in the 3rd - I value that more than my own opinion, and will weight it heavily, likely valuing Gio more than Lacy.It probably also depends when your rookie draft is. Some of mine are in May, some in August. Makes a HUGE difference. Even in the NFL. From April till August after seeing all these guys in training camp and preseason, I would bet if they re-did the draft it would look completely different.So, if my draft is in May I would take a lot more stock in where guys went in the NFL draft than if my draft is in August.
 
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It probably also depends when your rookie draft is. Some of mine are in May, some in August. Makes a HUGE difference. Even in the NFL. From April till August after seeing all these guys in training camp and preseason, I would bet if they re-did the draft it would look completely different.So, if my draft is in May I would take a lot more stock in where guys went in the NFL draft than if my draft is in August.
Of course; the more information you have, the more you make changes to your rankings. In August, guys like Mike Williams and Denarius Moore go higher than they would in May. Alfred Morris went a lot higher in August than he did in May. Michael Floyd likely went lower in August than he would have in May. I'm just not going to be the guy not valuing a 21/22 YO starting RB drafted in the first round because I didn't think they were elite based on a few games and Youtube clips.
 
Well, my Ryan Mathews for the 1.1 offer was shot down, for anyone wondering. It was implied he needed more value since he wouldn't take Mathews at 1.1 if he was available in this class.Tried swapping a mid 2nd for a late 3rd to make up the value gap, he wasn't having it. He wants more than a bit more value it seems.I'm all in on Lacy (most likely). I upped the ante. Hopefully it wasn't a mistake. Sent an offer of Mathews, 2.8, 2015 1st, 2015 2nd for 1.1, 2.1, 4.7. Not asking for advice, just giving a look inside the mind of someone trying to acquire the 1.1, figured it would be helpful. I know I'm overpaying, based on what we know now. But as a competing team I just don't value picks 2+ years out. I see them as free trade chips, of which I'll receive more next year. And the year after. Maybe it will catch up to me, maybe it won't.For context, I just won the championship and am trying to load up for another run. I have a bunch of studs in my starting lineup, but not much depth. Mathews would have been a starter for me, my RB3, which doesn't make me comfortable. Depending on what situations the top rookies land in I could see myself flipping the pick during the draft for a startable RB that I like more than Mathews (hopefully), or just riding with the best player. Targeting a RB right now though. Most likely Lacy. It's a risk, but I think the upside, even in year one, is better than gambling on Mathews to stay healthy, get the majority of touches, and produce.

 
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Well, my Ryan Mathews for the 1.1 offer was shot down, for anyone wondering. It was implied he needed more value since he wouldn't take Mathews at 1.1 if he was available in this class.Tried swapping a mid 2nd for a late 3rd to make up the value gap, he wasn't having it. He wants more than a bit more value it seems.I'm all in on Lacy (most likely). I upped the ante. Hopefully it wasn't a mistake. Sent an offer of Mathews, 2.8, 2015 1st, 2015 2nd for 1.1, 2.1, 4.7. Not asking for advice, just giving a look inside the mind of someone trying to acquire the 1.1, figured it would be helpful. I know I'm overpaying, based on what we know now. But as a competing team I just don't value picks 2+ years out. I see them as free trade chips, of which I'll receive more next year. And the year after. Maybe it will catch up to me, maybe it won't.For context, I just won the championship and am trying to load up for another run. I have a bunch of studs in my starting lineup, but not much depth. Mathews would have been a starter for me, my RB3, which doesn't make me comfortable. Depending on what situations the top rookies land in I could see myself flipping the pick during the draft for a startable RB that I like more than Mathews (hopefully), or just riding with the best player. Targeting a RB right now though. Most likely Lacy. It's a risk, but I think the upside, even in year one, is better than gambling on Mathews to stay healthy, get the majority of touches, and produce.
:unsure: Accepted.
 
Good deal getting pick 1 for Mathews. I was actually told I could get Mathews and a projected late 2014 1st for pick 1 (no other picks or players involved).I am likely not doing it. More of a feeling Mathews is in the tank.I was just told by someone they wouldn't trade me pick 2 for Victor Cruz....however he also knows I would NEVER bother doing that, and he is trying like crazy to sell picks 1,2,3. So apparently to someone (who of course owns pick 1), pick 1 is better than Cruz.

 
You know what, just the simple fact that so many people are debating this issue means the #1 pick DOES have significant value. Every league will have some people who value it like a 7th rounder in a startup, and some who will value it like a 3rd or 4th rounder.

However, value is value. Value does not mean production.

In this case, this year, since I have the #1 pick and I have a team that has a very good chance to compete, I have made up my mind to use that pick to try and trade it pretty much straight up for a player that I believe has a VERY high chance to produce well this year.

Eric Decker is a nice example of that. If I could get Decker for the pick (which I can't) I would.

Maybe in most other years I would stick with the pick. But this year, I am going with the philosophy of going after the more sure thing and take my chances that I am not giving up some future hall of fame fantasy stud. There WILL be some fantasy studs taken in this draft, but who are they?? And will you take them at pick #1???

I am guessing I will not draft a fantasy stud at pick 1, so I am willing to trade it for a player of the same "perceived value" and take a shorter term perceived sure-thing production in a guy like Decker. Even guys like Andre Johnson and Roddy White (both of which I also can NOT get for pick 1 straight up in this league).
I guess I'm just not that high on Decker. I see his value pegged to an older Peyton Manning and that could change very quickly. Decker is a nice player - don't get me wrong. But, in a deep keeper format, I'm going to use the opportunity to grab a RB.
 
Well, my Ryan Mathews for the 1.1 offer was shot down, for anyone wondering. It was implied he needed more value since he wouldn't take Mathews at 1.1 if he was available in this class.Tried swapping a mid 2nd for a late 3rd to make up the value gap, he wasn't having it. He wants more than a bit more value it seems.I'm all in on Lacy (most likely). I upped the ante. Hopefully it wasn't a mistake. Sent an offer of Mathews, 2.8, 2015 1st, 2015 2nd for 1.1, 2.1, 4.7. Not asking for advice, just giving a look inside the mind of someone trying to acquire the 1.1, figured it would be helpful. I know I'm overpaying, based on what we know now. But as a competing team I just don't value picks 2+ years out. I see them as free trade chips, of which I'll receive more next year. And the year after. Maybe it will catch up to me, maybe it won't.For context, I just won the championship and am trying to load up for another run. I have a bunch of studs in my starting lineup, but not much depth. Mathews would have been a starter for me, my RB3, which doesn't make me comfortable. Depending on what situations the top rookies land in I could see myself flipping the pick during the draft for a startable RB that I like more than Mathews (hopefully), or just riding with the best player. Targeting a RB right now though. Most likely Lacy. It's a risk, but I think the upside, even in year one, is better than gambling on Mathews to stay healthy, get the majority of touches, and produce.
:unsure: Accepted.So basically you gave Mathews/2015 1st for 1.01. The 2.08/2015 2nd are probably worth a tiny bit more then 2.01 but overall I think that part of the trade can be considered even and canceled out.I think you over paid a bit but if you are really high on Lacy it seems like a decent deal. Mathews is a frustrating player but he might flourish now that the worst head coach in the NFL Norv Turner is gone.
 
Not an overpay at all. That 2.1 is also gonna land you a nice prospect in this deep wr/te class.
Those were my thoughts as well. Could very well snag my #1 or #2 TE there or a nice WR prospect, or a personal favorite RB who didn't go to a great spot.
 
Good deal getting pick 1 for Mathews. I was actually told I could get Mathews and a projected late 2014 1st for pick 1 (no other picks or players involved).I am likely not doing it. More of a feeling Mathews is in the tank.I was just told by someone they wouldn't trade me pick 2 for Victor Cruz....however he also knows I would NEVER bother doing that, and he is trying like crazy to sell picks 1,2,3. So apparently to someone (who of course owns pick 1), pick 1 is better than Cruz.
People unwilling to trade 1.01 for Victor Cruz will likely have a lot of experience picking 1.01 in the future.
 
'moderated said:
'ConnSKINS26 said:
'ConnSKINS26 said:
Well, my Ryan Mathews for the 1.1 offer was shot down, for anyone wondering. It was implied he needed more value since he wouldn't take Mathews at 1.1 if he was available in this class.

Tried swapping a mid 2nd for a late 3rd to make up the value gap, he wasn't having it. He wants more than a bit more value it seems.

I'm all in on Lacy (most likely). I upped the ante. Hopefully it wasn't a mistake.

Sent an offer of Mathews, 2.8, 2015 1st, 2015 2nd for 1.1, 2.1, 4.7.

Not asking for advice, just giving a look inside the mind of someone trying to acquire the 1.1, figured it would be helpful. I know I'm overpaying, based on what we know now. But as a competing team I just don't value picks 2+ years out. I see them as free trade chips, of which I'll receive more next year. And the year after. Maybe it will catch up to me, maybe it won't.

For context, I just won the championship and am trying to load up for another run. I have a bunch of studs in my starting lineup, but not much depth. Mathews would have been a starter for me, my RB3, which doesn't make me comfortable. Depending on what situations the top rookies land in I could see myself flipping the pick during the draft for a startable RB that I like more than Mathews (hopefully), or just riding with the best player. Targeting a RB right now though. Most likely Lacy. It's a risk, but I think the upside, even in year one, is better than gambling on Mathews to stay healthy, get the majority of touches, and produce.
:unsure: Accepted.
So basically you gave Mathews/2015 1st for 1.01. The 2.08/2015 2nd are probably worth a tiny bit more then 2.01 but overall I think that part of the trade can be considered even and canceled out.I think you over paid a bit but if you are really high on Lacy it seems like a decent deal. Mathews is a frustrating player but he might flourish now that the worst head coach in the NFL Norv Turner is gone.

Turner may not be a great HC, but it's a tough sell to say he's been a detriment to RBs.
 
I disagree, and I'm a fan of Cruz. The top 3 picks in the draft, even if it's considered a "weak" draft? I'd trade Cruz for that.
I might be the biggest fan of Cruz, and agree with you. 1.01,1.02,1.03 is much more valuable than just Cruz. You're looking at a young, likely starting RB, a WR drafted in the top 10, and a WR drafted in the top 15. Odds are greatly in your favor.
 
I disagree, and I'm a fan of Cruz. The top 3 picks in the draft, even if it's considered a "weak" draft? I'd trade Cruz for that.
I might be the biggest fan of Cruz, and agree with you. 1.01,1.02,1.03 is much more valuable than just Cruz. You're looking at a young, likely starting RB, a WR drafted in the top 10, and a WR drafted in the top 15. Odds are greatly in your favor.You'd have to accept that offer on principle alone. Cruz is a very nice player - but as you said the odds are tremendously in your favor with the picks - plus you could always move one (or more) of those picks during or right before your rookie draft for a nice package.
 
I'm not saying I'm smarter/better informed than the pros but they get it wrong a ton
Very true. And I am not suggesting that we simply use draft position. I took Maclin over DHB. And Baldwin over Cobb, as an opposite example. But, again, plenty here liked Miller more than Martin before the draft. They quickly changed their position, and rightly so.I am a big Lacy guy and not a big Gio guy. But if Gio goes top 20, and Lacy goes in the 3rd - I value that more than my own opinion, and will likely value Gio more than Lacy.

This is an excellent way of putting it. I feel the same way about Lacy and Gio, but in the situation you describe, I'd go Gio over Lacy. The monkey wrench would be if Gio went in the 1st to the Giants and Lacy went in the 3rd to the Falcons.
 
A trade that went down in one of my leagues:12 team, ppr•Team N gave up Year 2013 Draft Pick 1.01•Team M gave up Kaepernick, Colin SFO QB

 
A trade that went down in one of my leagues:12 team, ppr•Team N gave up Year 2013 Draft Pick 1.01•Team M gave up Kaepernick, Colin SFO QB
Wow give me kaep all day plus id throw in another pick besides the 1.01 to get him.
The guy that traded Kaep away, had RGIII, Cousins and Dalton. I think it was a good deal for both sides.In a 12 team league, give me the 1.01. The QB field is very flooded right now.
 
A trade that went down in one of my leagues:12 team, ppr•Team N gave up Year 2013 Draft Pick 1.01•Team M gave up Kaepernick, Colin SFO QB
Wow give me kaep all day plus id throw in another pick besides the 1.01 to get him.
The guy that traded Kaep away, had RGIII, Cousins and Dalton. I think it was a good deal for both sides.In a 12 team league, give me the 1.01. The QB field is very flooded right now.Yes. If this class was more hyped, as most are and as it may well be in two months, you'd never see the 1.1 moved for a top QB. It's too easy to acquire a top-10 QB in a start-1 QB league. Kaep isn't at the value level of RG3 pre-injury or Cam post-rookie year, either. He's generally in people's top-8 somewhere.
 
A trade that went down in one of my leagues:

12 team, ppr

•Team N gave up

Year 2013 Draft Pick 1.01

•Team M gave up

Kaepernick, Colin SFO QB
Wow give me kaep all day plus id throw in another pick besides the 1.01 to get him.
The guy that traded Kaep away, had RGIII, Cousins and Dalton. I think it was a good deal for both sides.In a 12 team league, give me the 1.01. The QB field is very flooded right now.I agree with everything you said - but I'm wondering if the bolded is really as accurate as we think (at least with elite QBs). With Manning, Brady and Brees being very near the finish line and this 2013 class not looking all that great either I wonder if the top guys like Luck, RGIII, Stafford and maybe even the Kaeps and Wilsons are going to seperate from the pack a bit.Don't forget guys like Eli, Big Ben and Romo aren't all that young anymore and with their talent level being a notch or two below Peyton, Brady and Brees they may not last quite as long (at an effective level) as Peyton, Brady and Brees have.

 
As the owner of the 1.1, if I didn't own Rodgers already, I'd probably make that trade. Kaep is not RGIII or Cam, but I don't see him getting injured like those two either. I see him as a smarter runner...

 
As the owner of the 1.1, if I didn't own Rodgers already, I'd probably make that trade. Kaep is not RGIII or Cam, but I don't see him getting injured like those two either. I see him as a smarter runner...
Cam is as smart a runner in the NFL as you will find, including Kaepernick. He's aslo built like a LB/DE hybrid. If I had to put my money on a running QB staying healthy long-term, it's an easy choice for me; Cam.
 
Some big time risk aversion going on here when Cruz is worth more than 1+2+3.
There are a fairly large number of guys I would take over picks 1+2+3 (not entirely sure, but maybe like 15), but Cruz isn't one of them. All needs aside, even in this terrible top 3 (compared to any other year), you probably HAVE to make that deal. It will probably hurt you this year though, unless you made follow up trades.ZERO chance I would deal Cruz for the 1.1 in a PPR league, and probably not even in a regular non-PPR league. PIcks 1 and 2 I would have to think hard about. All three, sure
 
I wouldn't trade cruz for the 1.01 1.02 and 1.03 combined but that's just me.
I don't believe that was the scenario, but I would agree with you.
I wouldn't trade Cruz for one of those picks, but 2 or all 3 of them is a different storyCruz for picks 2 and 3 is a huge maybe. Even if these picks are a 50% hit rate (which is generous), will that guy even be as good as Cruz??Picks 1 and 2, I probably take it, keep pick 1, and look to deal pick 2 for something halfway decent.......if I could even get it.
 
I wouldn't trade cruz for the 1.01 1.02 and 1.03 combined but that's just me.
I don't believe that was the scenario, but I would agree with you.
I wouldn't trade Cruz for one of those picks, but 2 or all 3 of them is a different storyWas talking to an owner about getting B.Marshall from him. Sent him an offer of 1.04/1.06(probably a lowball offer, but I guess i am not as big on Marshall as others) and his response was: "I would not give you Marshall for all your firsts" I have 1.01, 1.04, 1.06, 1.11, 1.14. Some people like the proven players, some like picks and some just confuse you.
 
I just counted 42 players I would without a doubt take over the #1 pick (indluding QBs, a couple of these I would turn down if I already had a top QB).And there was about 10-15 more I would REALLY have to think about. If my team had no chance this year I can take a few guys off this list, but if I haev any chance to compete this list hits about 45-50 guys I take over pick 1.

 
I just counted 42 players I would without a doubt take over the #1 pick (indluding QBs, a couple of these I would turn down if I already had a top QB).And there was about 10-15 more I would REALLY have to think about. If my team had no chance this year I can take a few guys off this list, but if I haev any chance to compete this list hits about 45-50 guys I take over pick 1.
Which pretty much falls in line with the 1.1 going in the 4th of start-ups. A lot of these deals make sense in a vacuum but not for a competing team. That Marshall owner saying he wouldn't take 1.1, 1.4, 1.6, 1.11, and 1.14 for Marshall is probably a strong competitor, and it might take a draft pick years to reach the level of production Marshall is providing right now, if he ever does. Plus you have to keep those five guys rostered until there's no doubt that they have hit or miss, if you don't trade them, etc. So while in a vacuum its easy to gather data of what picks 1.1, 1.4, 1.6, 1.11, and 1.14 have been for the last decade (great, interesting thread by the way)and say its a "good" gamble, when there's money on the table and a championship on the line the situation changes. Context is very important.
 
I just counted 42 players I would without a doubt take over the #1 pick (indluding QBs, a couple of these I would turn down if I already had a top QB).And there was about 10-15 more I would REALLY have to think about. If my team had no chance this year I can take a few guys off this list, but if I haev any chance to compete this list hits about 45-50 guys I take over pick 1.
Which pretty much falls in line with the 1.1 going in the 4th of start-ups. A lot of these deals make sense in a vacuum but not for a competing team. That Marshall owner saying he wouldn't take 1.1, 1.4, 1.6, 1.11, and 1.14 for Marshall is probably a strong competitor, and it might take a draft pick years to reach the level of production Marshall is providing right now, if he ever does. Plus you have to keep those five guys rostered until there's no doubt that they have hit or miss, if you don't trade them, etc. So while in a vacuum its easy to gather data of what picks 1.1, 1.4, 1.6, 1.11, and 1.14 have been for the last decade (great, interesting thread by the way)and say its a "good" gamble, when there's money on the table and a championship on the line the situation changes. Context is very important.ANY other year this is an easy accept though. This year?? I would take the picks, but I can understand why someone wouldnt.Although if I am in line to possibly compete for a bye week.........if offered.........who knows, I might turn it down.
 
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I just counted 42 players I would without a doubt take over the #1 pick (indluding QBs, a couple of these I would turn down if I already had a top QB).And there was about 10-15 more I would REALLY have to think about. If my team had no chance this year I can take a few guys off this list, but if I haev any chance to compete this list hits about 45-50 guys I take over pick 1.
Which pretty much falls in line with the 1.1 going in the 4th of start-ups. A lot of these deals make sense in a vacuum but not for a competing team. That Marshall owner saying he wouldn't take 1.1, 1.4, 1.6, 1.11, and 1.14 for Marshall is probably a strong competitor, and it might take a draft pick years to reach the level of production Marshall is providing right now, if he ever does. Plus you have to keep those five guys rostered until there's no doubt that they have hit or miss, if you don't trade them, etc. So while in a vacuum its easy to gather data of what picks 1.1, 1.4, 1.6, 1.11, and 1.14 have been for the last decade (great, interesting thread by the way)and say its a "good" gamble, when there's money on the table and a championship on the line the situation changes. Context is very important.
ANY other year this is an easy accept though. This year?? I would take the picks, but I can understand why someone wouldnt.Although if I am in line to possibly compete for a bye week.........if offered.........who knows, I might turn it down.I'm just saying...Marshall might be 28, but he's a consistent top-5 WR. In this scenario, he's on a competing team. If you take those picks, you're hoping to realistically draft probably one superstar, another fantasy starter, and some quality depth with potential to be more. You'd be fairly lucky to have that happen, very lucky to do better, and fairly unlucky to fail and do worse. Two things there:1: Its going to take 1-3 years most likely to know what you've got. 2: Even if the best possible scenario happens. Lets say the 1.1 becomes a top-5 player at his position. You already had that, in Marshall. When you were competing for championships 1-3 years ago.*Disclaimer: unless there's a surefire RB1 there like Trent last year. A competitor could trade Forte for the 1.1 and feel good about still being in the fight for a championship.Now, if you've got the depth to pull it off or can make a deal like I did where the guy you're trading is also a question mark (in my case Ryan Mathews), then it makes sense even for a competing team. But if you don't have great depth, and Marshall is your WR1 or WR2, do you really want to hurt your chances at a title? I'm always in favor of making the ballsy move, of trusting your eyes and getting "your guys". But how important is a shot at a championship, if you don't have someone who can realistically step in for your lack of Cruz or Marshall?Its a conundrum, because we obviously aren't playing for just this year. But when the money's down on the table...what do you do? Its different for everyone.
 
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I raised a few eyebrows with this trade for the 1.01:Stevie Johnson (3 yrs)Andre Roberts (RFA)Robert Housler (2 yrs)Julius Peppers (1 yr)16-team contract year league (40 roster spots, 100 contract years). Start QB/RB/WR/WR/WR/TE/FLEX.None of the four were regular starters on my squad (I was either first or second in 2012 scoring).I had the depth and needed to free up a couple of roster spots, so why not?

 
I raised a few eyebrows with this trade for the 1.01:Stevie Johnson (3 yrs)Andre Roberts (RFA)Robert Housler (2 yrs)Julius Peppers (1 yr)16-team contract year league (40 roster spots, 100 contract years). Start QB/RB/WR/WR/WR/TE/FLEX.None of the four were regular starters on my squad (I was either first or second in 2012 scoring).I had the depth and needed to free up a couple of roster spots, so why not?
Did you buy him a beer too?
 
I raised a few eyebrows with this trade for the 1.01:Stevie Johnson (3 yrs)Andre Roberts (RFA)Robert Housler (2 yrs)Julius Peppers (1 yr)16-team contract year league (40 roster spots, 100 contract years). Start QB/RB/WR/WR/WR/TE/FLEX.None of the four were regular starters on my squad (I was either first or second in 2012 scoring).I had the depth and needed to free up a couple of roster spots, so why not?
Pretty sure the eyebrows were raised at the other guy.
 
I just counted 42 players I would without a doubt take over the #1 pick (indluding QBs, a couple of these I would turn down if I already had a top QB).And there was about 10-15 more I would REALLY have to think about. If my team had no chance this year I can take a few guys off this list, but if I haev any chance to compete this list hits about 45-50 guys I take over pick 1.
Which pretty much falls in line with the 1.1 going in the 4th of start-ups. A lot of these deals make sense in a vacuum but not for a competing team. That Marshall owner saying he wouldn't take 1.1, 1.4, 1.6, 1.11, and 1.14 for Marshall is probably a strong competitor, and it might take a draft pick years to reach the level of production Marshall is providing right now, if he ever does. Plus you have to keep those five guys rostered until there's no doubt that they have hit or miss, if you don't trade them, etc. So while in a vacuum its easy to gather data of what picks 1.1, 1.4, 1.6, 1.11, and 1.14 have been for the last decade (great, interesting thread by the way)and say its a "good" gamble, when there's money on the table and a championship on the line the situation changes. Context is very important.The other thing, which people often disregard, is that trade is not just Marshall for 1, 4, 6, 11, and 14. It's Marshall and 4 roster spots for those 5 picks. It does give the Marshall owner some flexibility and the chance to take a flier on some guys
 
The Marshall owner finished 8th out of 16 teams last year. Would say 5th-10th would be his finish next season. He made a move where he gave LB DJohnson and B.Myers to get J.Cameron TE and a 2nd round pick, so seems to be headed in getting youth.I just think with Marshall, who i like but don't love, he is a top wr but iirc, one little slip up and he could be done for a year? For his team, those picks for marshall would make total sense, but no way i would give that much up for him.I don't know off the top of my head how many players i would take for 1.01, but gonna guess over 30 + QB's.

 
I wouldn't trade cruz for the 1.01 1.02 and 1.03 combined but that's just me.
I don't believe that was the scenario, but I would agree with you.
I wouldn't trade Cruz for one of those picks, but 2 or all 3 of them is a different storyCruz for picks 2 and 3 is a huge maybe. Even if these picks are a 50% hit rate (which is generous), will that guy even be as good as Cruz??Picks 1 and 2, I probably take it, keep pick 1, and look to deal pick 2 for something halfway decent.......if I could even get it.turned down a deal where I give up 1.01, 1.02, and 1.04 for Cruz so this falls along those lines. It just wasn't quite enough for me to make the deal because Cruz is about to turn 27 and I will likely get 3 very high upside guys with those picks. They might not have as high of a floor as years past, but guys like Bernard, Allen, Patterson, Lacy, and a couple others certainly have as high of ceiling as guys in years past. I've seen some places that have compared Bernard to McCoy...The value of those picks is only going to rise in the next few months
 
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Pick one traded in my 12 teamer. Start QB/2RB/3WR/TE/flex, 1/2 ppr for WR/TE only. Up to 4 year contracts per player.1.01, 2014 1st (probably mid-late), Russel Wilson (2 yr), DeAngelo Williams (2 yr)forAlfred Morris (3 yr)

 

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