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What is the street value for the 1.01 rookie pick? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter dansav
- Start date
MoveToSkypager
Footballguy
Street value? 2 dimes, but that's just because local law enforcement always inflates those values. Probably closer to 1 dime.
Gandalf
Footballguy
I'm assuming this is rookie 1.1
Hmmm. So that equates to Sammy Watkins who I really like a lot. Right up there with Julio and AJ Green in my book. Obviously though no one in their right mind would trade a top WR for 1.1. Or even a top RB. But I could see trading a second tier WR or RB. And I guess a top QB from a team that already has a top or good QB. Or any TE not named Jimmy Graham. This is off the top of my head.
Anyone else?
Hmmm. So that equates to Sammy Watkins who I really like a lot. Right up there with Julio and AJ Green in my book. Obviously though no one in their right mind would trade a top WR for 1.1. Or even a top RB. But I could see trading a second tier WR or RB. And I guess a top QB from a team that already has a top or good QB. Or any TE not named Jimmy Graham. This is off the top of my head.
Anyone else?
ctrlaltdefeat
Footballguy
I wouldn't trade gronk or Victor Cruz for the 1.01 just to give an idea of value.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Gronk no, Cruz yes.
I am assuming this is rookie pick #1 in PPR 12 team fantasy.
Probably worth a couple mid 1sts, say picks 5 and 7?
Someone mentioned in another thread about Keenan Allen, I would go with Allen.
Gandalf
Footballguy
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
I'd say its about on par with the top rookies who are already somewhat proven from last year. Keenan, Patterson, Gio, Lacy. In that range.
ctrlaltdefeat
Footballguy
I'd keep keenan allen.
Cruz helps me to a championship this season and the next few. Watkins may need a season.
Cruz helps me to a championship this season and the next few. Watkins may need a season.
ctrlaltdefeat
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
I agree with how you value the pick, but don't agree Watkins is on the level of an AJ Green/Julio as a prospect.
The Fantasy Chef
Footballguy
Would you prefer 1.01 or Doug Martin ?
Mario Kart
Footballguy
The answer is zero. It's worth zero. What person on the street is going to give you anything for a magical league that are most likely not a part of? I don't know of any.
The Fantasy Chef
Footballguy
You are playing to much Mario kart the street is a term used as lingo it means what or who is worth trading the number 1 pick for.
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The Fantasy Chef
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Martin. But can easily see preferring pick 1.
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
could go either way but i'd take the 1.01. Martin is already 25 and coming off a major injury.
Kleck
Footballguy
I'd take Lacy over Allen and Gio...Some of that has to do with team/role on GB, but Lacy seems like he is in a very good spot to me, and there is no reason to get cute. In fact, I think Watkins will be very good too, but I would not monkey around with trading a guy who came out of the gate hot last year for what I view as a "tweak" in trading one of them for 1.01...downside is too great...especially if you are drafting now and don't have the benefit of which team they are going to.
Phenix
Footballguy
I have a different thought from most in dynasties... I prefer production to youth any day.
People will give you the world for a young player who might produce in 2 to 3 years and forget that this years title matters as well. 1.01 might get you a great young player, the best ever, who knows, but I ain't worried about two years from now when you can get youth on the wire who may produce just as much. Its all a gamble with picks, give me a better chance at certainty any day.
1.01 is not worth any player who produces regardless of age. I wouldnt give Decker or Garcon for 1.01. I wouldnt give Reggie Bush for 1.01. Why? Because they may produce like them in a few years? Please I want money and i want it now, not in 2 to 3 years.
Now before you say I will be hurting in 2 to 3 years, in theory maybe, but it has not hampered me in any dynasty yet. Infact it has me winning money and competing for the title every year.
People will give you the world for a young player who might produce in 2 to 3 years and forget that this years title matters as well. 1.01 might get you a great young player, the best ever, who knows, but I ain't worried about two years from now when you can get youth on the wire who may produce just as much. Its all a gamble with picks, give me a better chance at certainty any day.
1.01 is not worth any player who produces regardless of age. I wouldnt give Decker or Garcon for 1.01. I wouldnt give Reggie Bush for 1.01. Why? Because they may produce like them in a few years? Please I want money and i want it now, not in 2 to 3 years.
Now before you say I will be hurting in 2 to 3 years, in theory maybe, but it has not hampered me in any dynasty yet. Infact it has me winning money and competing for the title every year.
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Holy Schneikes
Footballguy
I have to say that is extreme even for the "current year is all that matters" guys. The 1.01 has a VERY good track record over the years. If you were talking a random 1st, OK everybody has their preferences.
But with 1.01 you have a very solid shot at getting the entire career of an otherwise unattainable stud. Peterson, Calvin, Green, Tomlinson, Faulk, etc are worth a lot of Eric Deckers, and generally the easiest way to get them is to draft them. There some misses at 1.01 sometimes (Richardson), but your odds are actually pretty good of getting a guy who will WAY outperform your average "producer".
I've seen slash and burn work for a while, but generally they stick around for a year or two then disappear when the cupboard is bare.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
matttyl
Footballguy
It is worth less today then it will be after Thursday, May 8th and as the regular season approaches it will only climb further in value.
Depending on league format and rookie hype in any given year, the first rookie is usually selected somewhere after the first 20 to 40 proven and established players are off the board, and more often then not, it will be a RB or two before a WR is selected.
Depending on league format and rookie hype in any given year, the first rookie is usually selected somewhere after the first 20 to 40 proven and established players are off the board, and more often then not, it will be a RB or two before a WR is selected.
EBF
Footballguy
I think it's worth about the same as WR10-14. Maybe a little more than that. So probably somewhere around guys like Harvin, Cobb, and Cruz.
I'd probably give it approximately 3rd round value in a typical 12 team startup draft.
There are lots of players I like in this draft, but none that I would really want to spend a top 15-20 startup pick on.
I'd probably give it approximately 3rd round value in a typical 12 team startup draft.
There are lots of players I like in this draft, but none that I would really want to spend a top 15-20 startup pick on.
In my Dynasty, Salary Cap league($200 Cap)...the Rookie 1.1 was just traded for LeVeon Bell.
In our Initial Auction Year(2013), LeVeon Bell went for $32, and has been sitting on the Taxi Squad since last summer. Owner never had the cap room to bring him out.
So he traded him for Rookie 1.1 which carries a $6 price
So maybe this year Bell comes out to play...The owner had McCoy($46) and Spiller($46), so Bell was stuck on Taxi indefinitely.
Player for PLayer this seems lopsided, but the price on Bell is prohibitive
In our Initial Auction Year(2013), LeVeon Bell went for $32, and has been sitting on the Taxi Squad since last summer. Owner never had the cap room to bring him out.
So he traded him for Rookie 1.1 which carries a $6 price
So maybe this year Bell comes out to play...The owner had McCoy($46) and Spiller($46), so Bell was stuck on Taxi indefinitely.
Player for PLayer this seems lopsided, but the price on Bell is prohibitive
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Yep. I know in the FFPC EVERY team who deals their 1sts for "win now guys" all have the absolute worst teams in all of the FFPC.
I mean to an extent I understand, but to say you wouldnt deal DECKER for pick 1 just makes you sound like a raging idiot.
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JohnnyU
Footballguy
Didn't Cruz have a crappy 2013? Also, you're operating with the redraft mentality and that is fine for redraft leagues, but with dynasty leagues you would be hard pressed to find anyone that would take Cruz over Watkins.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Don't you just hate guys who join dynasty leagues, then go all in on veteran geezers and when their team sucks in year 2 they quit.
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JohnnyU
Footballguy
Shutout
Footballguy
Probably going to take something like Eddie Lacy or Le'veon Bell. A team needing a RB might see it worthwhile but f all you are offering is second tier, OLDER players, what is going to compel someone to give up Sammy or Lee for that in dynasty? Doesn't make much sense.
K. Allen (since he was mentioned in the post) is probably the push line. Some will say they will keep Allen because a bird in the hand...
Others might love that feeling that usually sweeps over fantasy owners this time of year in that they get SO caught up in young rookies and they might take Sammy or Lee, thinking they are the next Dez/Julio/Demaryius, etc player.
K. Allen (since he was mentioned in the post) is probably the push line. Some will say they will keep Allen because a bird in the hand...
Others might love that feeling that usually sweeps over fantasy owners this time of year in that they get SO caught up in young rookies and they might take Sammy or Lee, thinking they are the next Dez/Julio/Demaryius, etc player.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
i think after the NFL Draft the value between 1.01 - 1.03 won't be that much different; and if a couple of RBs and in good spots it could be pushed to 1.05. This is a good yr to collect multiple picks in the 1st half of the draft instead of cashing them all in for 1 studly piece. So with that in mind the value of 1.01 takes a hit since I would just send the same trade off to the 1st 3 pick owners.
Shutout
Footballguy
Agree with that. And I think that, unless you have a Calvin or ADP type player coming out (and we usually know those), this is generally true any year. I typically avoid the 1.01 guy and hit the 1.3-1.06 guy hard. That is where you can sometimes get the value and, with a little luck, find the guy you wanted all along.
How many people drafted Lacy in the 1.04-1.07 last year? Keenan Allen even later? There's always some guy that gets pushed up where he doesn't belong (see M. Ball) and if you notice that, you find your value.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I think that is a pretty even move either way this year. You will probably be just fine with those picks over pick 1
Onions
Footballguy
Interesting.
What are people's thoughts on this?
Even deal? Which side would you rather have?(and why?)
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
2/12 over pick one almost any year, including this year.
ctrlaltdefeat
Footballguy
Yeah Cruz had an injury riddled season and that's why I'll give up the 1.01 for him in any league I can. Buy low I say.
You see this as Redraft thinking because you don't see the rest of my team. 50% of my teams are young up and comers and the other 50 are win now plus 2 to 4 years left of big time production. I trade away early picks if it makes sense and I've also traded up for luck and rg3 in the same draft - 1 QB league. You shouldn't, imo, see one trade and assume I have a Redraft type of thinking. Good points though.
