What is the street value for the 1.01 rookie pick? (1 Viewer)

[ctrlaltdefeat]

I tried to get it 1.01 and offered 1.07/1.08 and got turned down. He said he likes Watkins too much to deal it.

I'd take the 7 and 8 probably but pretty even.

 

[Spike]

I tried to get it 1.01 and offered 1.07/1.08 and got turned down. He said he likes Watkins too much to deal it.

I'd take the 7 and 8 probably but pretty even.

I have the 1.01 in a non-PPR and I'm sticking with the Watkins pick.

 

[Bamac]

I traded 1.1 for 1.4 and Jordan Reed. I don't put Watkins or Evans in the class of AJG or Julio though.

I made a similar move: gave 1.01 for Vereen + 1.05.

 

[maxhyde]

1.01

Would you prefer 1.01 or Doug Martin ?

I think Doug Martin hands down anyone else?

Easily Martin for me

 

[False Start]

I traded 1.1 for 1.4 and Jordan Reed. I don't put Watkins or Evans in the class of AJG or Julio though.

I made a similar move: gave 1.01 for Vereen + 1.05.

Some people forget how well Vereen did in 8 games last year. I rather have his youth, 47 catches and 4 TDs in 8 games and the 5th pick who might do as well as 1.01. Kind of shocked with that.

 

[Archer]

Its not worth 1 ton of cocaine, but its worth a lot. I would know.

 

[Bamac]

I traded 1.1 for 1.4 and Jordan Reed. I don't put Watkins or Evans in the class of AJG or Julio though.

I made a similar move: gave 1.01 for Vereen + 1.05.

Some people forget how well Vereen did in 8 games last year. I rather have his youth, 47 catches and 4 TDs in 8 games and the 5th pick who might do as well as 1.01. Kind of shocked with that.

Guy told me after the trade that he thinks Watkins is the next Julio/AJ Green. Knowing that, I probably should've held out for more.

 

[cstu]

I traded 1.1 for 1.4 and Jordan Reed. I don't put Watkins or Evans in the class of AJG or Julio though.

I made a similar move: gave 1.01 for Vereen + 1.05.

Some people forget how well Vereen did in 8 games last year. I rather have his youth, 47 catches and 4 TDs in 8 games and the 5th pick who might do as well as 1.01. Kind of shocked with that.

He was a PPR machine the first 5 games he played, but what happened to him weeks 14-16? That sort of inconsistency will drive owners mad.

 

[False Start]

I traded 1.1 for 1.4 and Jordan Reed. I don't put Watkins or Evans in the class of AJG or Julio though.

I made a similar move: gave 1.01 for Vereen + 1.05.

Some people forget how well Vereen did in 8 games last year. I rather have his youth, 47 catches and 4 TDs in 8 games and the 5th pick who might do as well as 1.01. Kind of shocked with that.

He was a PPR machine the first 5 games he played, but what happened to him weeks 14-16? That sort of inconsistency will drive owners mad.

He bounced back week 17. Morris had a string of bad games, Bernard had more than a stinker here and there and people are not doubting them and their consistency in fact they give them high grades. Reggie Bush even was inconsistent with some stinkers and was a Top 10 runner in most of my leagues. Vereen is very undervalued and obviously could be had for cheap but is worth more than what some are giving. So while he had a few bad games like everyone, the majority of the games he produces as elite levels.

 

[JohnnyU]

2/12 over pick one almost any year, including this year.

Not if you think Watkins is that much better than anyone else. Let's look at the AJ Green / Mark Ingram draft. Let's say Julio Jones wasn't in that draft also. Are you telling me you would trade A J Green for Mark Ingram and whoever you could draft at 1.12? In hindsight of course you wouldn't, but using your logic you would probably do that deal. I come from the school try to get the best player in the trade. Of course a lot of folks thought Mark Ingram was the best player in that draft, or at least close to it.

 

[Texasmouth]

I'd keep keenan allen.

Cruz helps me to a championship this season and the next few. Watkins may need a season.

Didn't Cruz have a crappy 2013? Also, you're operating with the redraft mentality and that is fine for redraft leagues, but with dynasty leagues you would be hard pressed to find anyone that would take Cruz over Watkins.

73/998/4- Victor Cruz crappy season= 194 points (PPR)

72/931/5- TY Hilton's "breakout" season= 194 points

66/957/8- Keenan Allen Rookie season= 207 points

Just for a little perspective. Cruz had a down year.

 

[salmonstud]

I have acquired the 1.1 pick in every dynasty league I can this year. All my leagues are PPR & start 3 WR or 3WR + flex. I think EBF hit the nail on the head - saying the value of the 1.1 pick (assuming you take Watkins) is around a 3rd round startup dynasty pick.

I traded Cam Newton straight up for the 1.1 pick in one league that I had both Cam Newton & Russel Wilson. Needed WR help more than QB.

I would take Watkins over guys like Cruz, Marshall (age) but not the top 7-8 WR's (Julio, DT, Dez, Gordon, CJ, AJG, etc.). I probably would trade the 1.1 for a top 5-6 ranked RB in leagues I need RB help in.

In leagues that I have horrible RB's - I still will take Watkins at 1.1.

 

[Bamac]

I traded 1.1 for 1.4 and Jordan Reed. I don't put Watkins or Evans in the class of AJG or Julio though.

I made a similar move: gave 1.01 for Vereen + 1.05.

Some people forget how well Vereen did in 8 games last year. I rather have his youth, 47 catches and 4 TDs in 8 games and the 5th pick who might do as well as 1.01. Kind of shocked with that.

He was a PPR machine the first 5 games he played, but what happened to him weeks 14-16? That sort of inconsistency will drive owners mad.

This isn't a Vereen thread, but I'll say this: I realize the move was a two-faceted gamble. First, I'm betting the drop off from 1.01 to 1.05 won't be huge in June. Second, I'm betting Vereen can give me RB2 production for a few years. FWIW, week-to-week consistency doesn't matter much to me. I play in leagues with deep enough lineups that volatility usually balances out.

 

[TheLurkerBelow]

Would you prefer 1.01 or Doug Martin ?

Let's see, a rookie player of my choosing who may or may not amount to anything or come close to living up to the first overall pick expectations (see Trent Richardson, Mark Ingram, Ryan Matthews, Darren McFadden, Reggie Bush as examples of common 1.1 pick players over the last few years) or Doug Martin who put up 2,000 combined yards in one season already. I wouldn't trade Doug Martin for the 1.1 unless the other owner added other picks and/or prospects to the 1.1 to make me start to consider it.

Martin may have been having a down year before the injury this past season, but I blame that far more on the team's lack of talent and weapons than on him. The key thing is he has proven to be incredibly talented, and that he has the ability to be a fantasy stud. Why trade him in hopes that you might, just might, find what you already have?

 

[Vector]

I have a different thought from most in dynasties... I prefer production to youth any day.

People will give you the world for a young player who might produce in 2 to 3 years and forget that this years title matters as well. 1.01 might get you a great young player, the best ever, who knows, but I ain't worried about two years from now when you can get youth on the wire who may produce just as much. Its all a gamble with picks, give me a better chance at certainty any day.

1.01 is not worth any player who produces regardless of age. I wouldnt give Decker or Garcon for 1.01. I wouldnt give Reggie Bush for 1.01. Why? Because they may produce like them in a few years? Please I want money and i want it now, not in 2 to 3 years.

Now before you say I will be hurting in 2 to 3 years, in theory maybe, but it has not hampered me in any dynasty yet. Infact it has me winning money and competing for the title every year.

Maybe you could trade Julius Thomas for the 1.1.............

 

[The Fantasy Chef]

Would you prefer 1.01 or Doug Martin ?

Let's see, a rookie player of my choosing who may or may not amount to anything or come close to living up to the first overall pick expectations (see Trent Richardson, Mark Ingram, Ryan Matthews, Darren McFadden, Reggie Bush as examples of common 1.1 pick players over the last few years) or Doug Martin who put up 2,000 combined yards in one season already. I wouldn't trade Doug Martin for the 1.1 unless the other owner added other picks and/or prospects to the 1.1 to make me start to consider it.

Martin may have been having a down year before the injury this past season, but I blame that far more on the team's lack of talent and weapons than on him. The key thing is he has proven to be incredibly talented, and that he has the ability to be a fantasy stud. Why trade him in hopes that you might, just might, find what you already have?

I totally agree .......thank you can I have another

 

[bengalbuck]

I think there are right around 20 players I would value more than the 1.01 this year.

 

[ghostguy123]

2/12 over pick one almost any year, including this year.

Not if you think Watkins is that much better than anyone else. Let's look at the AJ Green / Mark Ingram draft. Let's say Julio Jones wasn't in that draft also. Are you telling me you would trade A J Green for Mark Ingram and whoever you could draft at 1.12? In hindsight of course you wouldn't, but using your logic you would probably do that deal. I come from the school try to get the best player in the trade. Of course a lot of folks thought Mark Ingram was the best player in that draft, or at least close to it.

Or you could have wanted Ingram that year, and mayeb the guy took him pick 1, so instead of Ingram you get Green and pick 12. That works both ways. We can also look at the Trent Richardson draft. Instead of Richardson you can have Martin and whoever at 12.

And yes, I said MOST years I would take 2/12 over pick 1.

 

[salmonstud]

Would you prefer 1.01 or Doug Martin ?

Let's see, a rookie player of my choosing who may or may not amount to anything or come close to living up to the first overall pick expectations (see Trent Richardson, Mark Ingram, Ryan Matthews, Darren McFadden, Reggie Bush as examples of common 1.1 pick players over the last few years) or Doug Martin who put up 2,000 combined yards in one season already. I wouldn't trade Doug Martin for the 1.1 unless the other owner added other picks and/or prospects to the 1.1 to make me start to consider it.

Martin may have been having a down year before the injury this past season, but I blame that far more on the team's lack of talent and weapons than on him. The key thing is he has proven to be incredibly talented, and that he has the ability to be a fantasy stud. Why trade him in hopes that you might, just might, find what you already have?

About 4 weeks ago I traded the 1.3 & 2.1 for Doug Martin.

 

[squistion]

Would you prefer 1.01 or Doug Martin ?

Let's see, a rookie player of my choosing who may or may not amount to anything or come close to living up to the first overall pick expectations (see Trent Richardson, Mark Ingram, Ryan Matthews, Darren McFadden, Reggie Bush as examples of common 1.1 pick players over the last few years) or Doug Martin who put up 2,000 combined yards in one season already. I wouldn't trade Doug Martin for the 1.1 unless the other owner added other picks and/or prospects to the 1.1 to make me start to consider it.

Martin may have been having a down year before the injury this past season, but I blame that far more on the team's lack of talent and weapons than on him. The key thing is he has proven to be incredibly talented, and that he has the ability to be a fantasy stud. Why trade him in hopes that you might, just might, find what you already have?

Perhaps because we don't buy your unstated premise that he was a "fantasy stud" before the injury. Maybe he is...I dunno...but I am not completely sold on Martin and for the 1.01 I would rather roll the dice on the overall best rookie prospect.

 

[ghostguy123]

Perhaps because we don't buy your unstated premise that he was a "fantasy stud" before the injury. Maybe he is...I dunno...but I am not completely sold on Martin and for the 1.01 I would rather roll the dice on the overall best rookie prospect.

I think I prefer Martin in most situations also, but by no means is he some sure thing.

 

[The Fantasy Chef]

I just gave Cruz,Dobson and the 1.10 for Martin. I also got a 2nd next year and Alex smith but I love the upside in Martin more than any 1st rounder. That's just me

 

[JohnnyU]

2/12 over pick one almost any year, including this year.

Not if you think Watkins is that much better than anyone else. Let's look at the AJ Green / Mark Ingram draft. Let's say Julio Jones wasn't in that draft also. Are you telling me you would trade A J Green for Mark Ingram and whoever you could draft at 1.12? In hindsight of course you wouldn't, but using your logic you would probably do that deal. I come from the school try to get the best player in the trade. Of course a lot of folks thought Mark Ingram was the best player in that draft, or at least close to it.

Or you could have wanted Ingram that year, and mayeb the guy took him pick 1, so instead of Ingram you get Green and pick 12. That works both ways. We can also look at the Trent Richardson draft. Instead of Richardson you can have Martin and whoever at 12.

And yes, I said MOST years I would take 2/12 over pick 1.

The point is, if I think Watkins is that much better than anyone else in the draft (and I do), then you trade the 1.2 and 1.12 for the 1.1 10 times out of 10.

 

[ghostguy123]

The point is, if I think Watkins is that much better than anyone else in the draft (and I do), then you trade the 1.2 and 1.12 for the 1.1 10 times out of 10.

If there is a case where I think that of a guy, then yes.

I did deal pick 3 and a farily early 2nd (pick 15 I think) for pick 1, so yeah I do like the #1 pick this year.

But I still prefer 2/12 to Watkins. And by no means is Watkins even the slam dunk #1 anyway.

 

[Steelers4Life]

It'll come down to whether or not someone is a huge believer in Watkins, because there's really not anyone else in this draft who even potentially has the talent and pedigree to really separate from the pack.

I believe Watkins is a good but not great talent, so I don't think the 1.01 is much more valuable than a mid 1st. Plenty of good talent, none that are elite. I think Watkins made a living in college catching a huge amount of screen passes and crossing routes and using speed that isn't common in college football to make plays. Defensive backs would have to cheat up because of it, and he'd be able to exploit it. Against bigger and faster competition in the NFL, I don't see that type of game translating quite as well, and I don't think he'll be a superstar at the next level. So if I had 1.01, I'd gladly deal it to someone who believes Watkins is a stud.

 

[FUBAR]

The point is, if I think Watkins is that much better than anyone else in the draft (and I do), then you trade the 1.2 and 1.12 for the 1.1 10 times out of 10.

If there is a case where I think that of a guy, then yes.

I did deal pick 3 and a farily early 2nd (pick 15 I think) for pick 1, so yeah I do like the #1 pick this year.

But I still prefer 2/12 to Watkins. And by no means is Watkins even the slam dunk #1 anyway.

The last part is the key imo, at least right now. It's likely that one or more of the backs go to decent places and in most leagues rb is still a premium position. There might be less risk with Watkins, though I don't think he's necessarily a top 12 receiver. But take a back like Hyde, put him in New York, Tennessee, or maybe even Cleveland, (or pick your spot) and he might be a top 12 back.

 

[FUBAR]

2/12 over pick one almost any year, including this year.

Not if you think Watkins is that much better than anyone else. Let's look at the AJ Green / Mark Ingram draft. Let's say Julio Jones wasn't in that draft also. Are you telling me you would trade A J Green for Mark Ingram and whoever you could draft at 1.12? In hindsight of course you wouldn't, but using your logic you would probably do that deal. I come from the school try to get the best player in the trade. Of course a lot of folks thought Mark Ingram was the best player in that draft, or at least close to it.

Or you can look at last year and it is easy to see the 2 and 12 as more valuable than the 1.

 

[FUBAR]

I would take Watkins over guys like Cruz, Marshall (age) but not the top 7-8 WR's (Julio, DT, Dez, Gordon, CJ, AJG, etc.).

I thought I liked Watkins, but I'm not even sure if I'd take him over Cobb, Crabtree, Hopkins, Patterson, or a few others.

 

[Terpman22]

The point is, if I think Watkins is that much better than anyone else in the draft (and I do), then you trade the 1.2 and 1.12 for the 1.1 10 times out of 10.

If there is a case where I think that of a guy, then yes.

I did deal pick 3 and a farily early 2nd (pick 15 I think) for pick 1, so yeah I do like the #1 pick this year.

But I still prefer 2/12 to Watkins. And by no means is Watkins even the slam dunk #1 anyway.

The last part is the key imo, at least right now. It's likely that one or more of the backs go to decent places and in most leagues rb is still a premium position. There might be less risk with Watkins, though I don't think he's necessarily a top 12 receiver. But take a back like Hyde, put him in New York, Tennessee, or maybe even Cleveland, (or pick your spot) and he might be a top 12 back.

This. Looking back on all my drafts, i looked back, and in the years Forte, McCoy and Charles were drafted, I saw Forte go only as high as 1.3, 1.3 for McCoy and 1.12 for Charles. Those years DMC and Crabtree were the consensus #1 for the most part.

 

[Protocols of Stringer Bell]

I traded Gronkowski for the 1.1 and a 2015 1st/2nd swap in my favor.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

1.01 has risk like any other pick, but there is a lot less of it than with considerably lower picks. On the other hand, depending on the year, 1.02/1.03 may have nearly equal real value but will cost a lot less. I'm often tempted to move down a smidge to pick up good value if there is no Adrian Peterson or Calvin Johnson on the board. And while Watkins seems really promising, he's not those guys.

So compared to most, I highly value high rookie picks - I think it's the best and sometimes ONLY way to get massive difference makers. On the other hand, I'd be willing to drop a pick or two in the right class, because those guys generally turn out well too.

Of course, all of this will change after the combine, and then after the NFL draft, and then overall value will slowly build til it peaks right before your fantasy draft.

 

[JohnnyU]

1.01 has risk like any other pick, but there is a lot less of it than with considerably lower picks. On the other hand, depending on the year, 1.02/1.03 may have nearly equal real value but will cost a lot less. I'm often tempted to move down a smidge to pick up good value if there is no Adrian Peterson or Calvin Johnson on the board. And while Watkins seems really promising, he's not those guys.

So compared to most, I highly value high rookie picks - I think it's the best and sometimes ONLY way to get massive difference makers. On the other hand, I'd be willing to drop a pick or two in the right class, because those guys generally turn out well too.

Of course, all of this will change after the combine, and then after the NFL draft, and then overall value will slowly build til it peaks right before your fantasy draft.

I think Watkins will be every bit as good as Julio Jones and almost as good as A J Green. The decision to trade the 1.2 and 1.12 for the 1.01 was an easy one for me, but hey, we're all different and that's the beauty of it.

 

[FUBAR]

1.01 has risk like any other pick, but there is a lot less of it than with considerably lower picks. On the other hand, depending on the year, 1.02/1.03 may have nearly equal real value but will cost a lot less. I'm often tempted to move down a smidge to pick up good value if there is no Adrian Peterson or Calvin Johnson on the board. And while Watkins seems really promising, he's not those guys.

So compared to most, I highly value high rookie picks - I think it's the best and sometimes ONLY way to get massive difference makers. On the other hand, I'd be willing to drop a pick or two in the right class, because those guys generally turn out well too.

Of course, all of this will change after the combine, and then after the NFL draft, and then overall value will slowly build til it peaks right before your fantasy draft.

True, but all rookie picks tend to increase in value as the draft approaches. The real question IMO is the relative value of each to the others. That's really hard to tell right now, but I'm guessing the 2 will increase in value relative to the 1. The only way Watkins (assuming he is the #1) gets more valuable before the season is if he's drafted by a team with a very good QB where he'll either walk in as the likely #1 or has an obvious path to the spot. Just my opinion of course but I don't see his value increasing if he's picked by any of the teams in the top 10. If he falls out of the top 10, people will start to question his talent more. Keep in mind, I'm simply talking about his perceived value before the season starts. Sure, he could get drafted by one of the teams without a good QB and still do well.

 

[JohnnyU]

1.01 has risk like any other pick, but there is a lot less of it than with considerably lower picks. On the other hand, depending on the year, 1.02/1.03 may have nearly equal real value but will cost a lot less. I'm often tempted to move down a smidge to pick up good value if there is no Adrian Peterson or Calvin Johnson on the board. And while Watkins seems really promising, he's not those guys.

So compared to most, I highly value high rookie picks - I think it's the best and sometimes ONLY way to get massive difference makers. On the other hand, I'd be willing to drop a pick or two in the right class, because those guys generally turn out well too.

Of course, all of this will change after the combine, and then after the NFL draft, and then overall value will slowly build til it peaks right before your fantasy draft.

True, but all rookie picks tend to increase in value as the draft approaches. The real question IMO is the relative value of each to the others. That's really hard to tell right now, but I'm guessing the 2 will increase in value relative to the 1. The only way Watkins (assuming he is the #1) gets more valuable before the season is if he's drafted by a team with a very good QB where he'll either walk in as the likely #1 or has an obvious path to the spot. Just my opinion of course but I don't see his value increasing if he's picked by any of the teams in the top 10. If he falls out of the top 10, people will start to question his talent more. Keep in mind, I'm simply talking about his perceived value before the season starts. Sure, he could get drafted by one of the teams without a good QB and still do well.

Or someone with at great situation could move up to draft him.

 

[FUBAR]

1.01 has risk like any other pick, but there is a lot less of it than with considerably lower picks. On the other hand, depending on the year, 1.02/1.03 may have nearly equal real value but will cost a lot less. I'm often tempted to move down a smidge to pick up good value if there is no Adrian Peterson or Calvin Johnson on the board. And while Watkins seems really promising, he's not those guys.

So compared to most, I highly value high rookie picks - I think it's the best and sometimes ONLY way to get massive difference makers. On the other hand, I'd be willing to drop a pick or two in the right class, because those guys generally turn out well too.

Of course, all of this will change after the combine, and then after the NFL draft, and then overall value will slowly build til it peaks right before your fantasy draft.

True, but all rookie picks tend to increase in value as the draft approaches. The real question IMO is the relative value of each to the others. That's really hard to tell right now, but I'm guessing the 2 will increase in value relative to the 1. The only way Watkins (assuming he is the #1) gets more valuable before the season is if he's drafted by a team with a very good QB where he'll either walk in as the likely #1 or has an obvious path to the spot. Just my opinion of course but I don't see his value increasing if he's picked by any of the teams in the top 10. If he falls out of the top 10, people will start to question his talent more. Keep in mind, I'm simply talking about his perceived value before the season starts. Sure, he could get drafted by one of the teams without a good QB and still do well.

Or someone with at great situation could move up to draft him.

Sure. But what team(s) could make that move? I'm presuming he goes top 10. If he goes top 10 (probably top 5), moving from the 20s to get him would seem extremely expensive - if he's top 5, it almost requires a team be in the top 10 to get him.

So, that leaves us with the teams 11-20. Of those teams, which do you think increase his value? I don't see Pittsburgh making that move, but maybe the Ravens or Giants would be the ideal situations? Still, that would be an expensive jump for either team. It just isn't likely.

That isn't to say Buffalo or Tampa couldn't make him into an elite WR. I just think his value takes a small hit before the season.

 

[JohnnyU]

1.01 has risk like any other pick, but there is a lot less of it than with considerably lower picks. On the other hand, depending on the year, 1.02/1.03 may have nearly equal real value but will cost a lot less. I'm often tempted to move down a smidge to pick up good value if there is no Adrian Peterson or Calvin Johnson on the board. And while Watkins seems really promising, he's not those guys.

So compared to most, I highly value high rookie picks - I think it's the best and sometimes ONLY way to get massive difference makers. On the other hand, I'd be willing to drop a pick or two in the right class, because those guys generally turn out well too.

Of course, all of this will change after the combine, and then after the NFL draft, and then overall value will slowly build til it peaks right before your fantasy draft.

True, but all rookie picks tend to increase in value as the draft approaches. The real question IMO is the relative value of each to the others. That's really hard to tell right now, but I'm guessing the 2 will increase in value relative to the 1. The only way Watkins (assuming he is the #1) gets more valuable before the season is if he's drafted by a team with a very good QB where he'll either walk in as the likely #1 or has an obvious path to the spot. Just my opinion of course but I don't see his value increasing if he's picked by any of the teams in the top 10. If he falls out of the top 10, people will start to question his talent more. Keep in mind, I'm simply talking about his perceived value before the season starts. Sure, he could get drafted by one of the teams without a good QB and still do well.

Or someone with at great situation could move up to draft him.

Sure. But what team(s) could make that move? I'm presuming he goes top 10. If he goes top 10 (probably top 5), moving from the 20s to get him would seem extremely expensive - if he's top 5, it almost requires a team be in the top 10 to get him.

So, that leaves us with the teams 11-20. Of those teams, which do you think increase his value? I don't see Pittsburgh making that move, but maybe the Ravens or Giants would be the ideal situations? Still, that would be an expensive jump for either team. It just isn't likely.

That isn't to say Buffalo or Tampa couldn't make him into an elite WR. I just think his value takes a small hit before the season.

No offense, but that is narrow minded thinking in a dynasty format. It's not like A J Green has a HOFer throwing to him.

 

[FUBAR]

1.01 has risk like any other pick, but there is a lot less of it than with considerably lower picks. On the other hand, depending on the year, 1.02/1.03 may have nearly equal real value but will cost a lot less. I'm often tempted to move down a smidge to pick up good value if there is no Adrian Peterson or Calvin Johnson on the board. And while Watkins seems really promising, he's not those guys.

So compared to most, I highly value high rookie picks - I think it's the best and sometimes ONLY way to get massive difference makers. On the other hand, I'd be willing to drop a pick or two in the right class, because those guys generally turn out well too.

Of course, all of this will change after the combine, and then after the NFL draft, and then overall value will slowly build til it peaks right before your fantasy draft.

True, but all rookie picks tend to increase in value as the draft approaches. The real question IMO is the relative value of each to the others. That's really hard to tell right now, but I'm guessing the 2 will increase in value relative to the 1. The only way Watkins (assuming he is the #1) gets more valuable before the season is if he's drafted by a team with a very good QB where he'll either walk in as the likely #1 or has an obvious path to the spot. Just my opinion of course but I don't see his value increasing if he's picked by any of the teams in the top 10. If he falls out of the top 10, people will start to question his talent more. Keep in mind, I'm simply talking about his perceived value before the season starts. Sure, he could get drafted by one of the teams without a good QB and still do well.

Or someone with at great situation could move up to draft him.

Sure. But what team(s) could make that move? I'm presuming he goes top 10. If he goes top 10 (probably top 5), moving from the 20s to get him would seem extremely expensive - if he's top 5, it almost requires a team be in the top 10 to get him.

So, that leaves us with the teams 11-20. Of those teams, which do you think increase his value? I don't see Pittsburgh making that move, but maybe the Ravens or Giants would be the ideal situations? Still, that would be an expensive jump for either team. It just isn't likely.

That isn't to say Buffalo or Tampa couldn't make him into an elite WR. I just think his value takes a small hit before the season.

No offense, but that is narrow minded thinking in a dynasty format. It's not like A J Green has a HOFer throwing to him.

In a thread talking about "street value" of the pick and whether it's a good trade right now, to trade the 1.02++ for the 1.01, it's highly relative to consider the values today vs. May-August. I'm looking at this from the stock perspective. If you're looking at it from an art collection or other perspective, that's the longer view and certainly a valuable one to use.

FWIW, I may very well look to acquire Watkins after the draft, but I'm not giving the #2 and another 1st right now.

 

[TheJewru]

Cruz is name that came to mind for valuation purposes first for me. I would give Cruz up. I can understand not wanting to as well.

 

[Spike]

1.01 has risk like any other pick, but there is a lot less of it than with considerably lower picks. On the other hand, depending on the year, 1.02/1.03 may have nearly equal real value but will cost a lot less. I'm often tempted to move down a smidge to pick up good value if there is no Adrian Peterson or Calvin Johnson on the board. And while Watkins seems really promising, he's not those guys.

So compared to most, I highly value high rookie picks - I think it's the best and sometimes ONLY way to get massive difference makers. On the other hand, I'd be willing to drop a pick or two in the right class, because those guys generally turn out well too.

Of course, all of this will change after the combine, and then after the NFL draft, and then overall value will slowly build til it peaks right before your fantasy draft.

True, but all rookie picks tend to increase in value as the draft approaches. The real question IMO is the relative value of each to the others. That's really hard to tell right now, but I'm guessing the 2 will increase in value relative to the 1. The only way Watkins (assuming he is the #1) gets more valuable before the season is if he's drafted by a team with a very good QB where he'll either walk in as the likely #1 or has an obvious path to the spot. Just my opinion of course but I don't see his value increasing if he's picked by any of the teams in the top 10. If he falls out of the top 10, people will start to question his talent more. Keep in mind, I'm simply talking about his perceived value before the season starts. Sure, he could get drafted by one of the teams without a good QB and still do well.

Or someone with at great situation could move up to draft him.

Sure. But what team(s) could make that move? I'm presuming he goes top 10. If he goes top 10 (probably top 5), moving from the 20s to get him would seem extremely expensive - if he's top 5, it almost requires a team be in the top 10 to get him.

So, that leaves us with the teams 11-20. Of those teams, which do you think increase his value? I don't see Pittsburgh making that move, but maybe the Ravens or Giants would be the ideal situations? Still, that would be an expensive jump for either team. It just isn't likely.

That isn't to say Buffalo or Tampa couldn't make him into an elite WR. I just think his value takes a small hit before the season.

With the tremendous depth at WR this year, I just don't see any team making the sort of move Atlanta made to get Julio Jones. It would be stunning to me...and foolish.

 

[Biabreakable]

Based on recent mocks for example Daniel Jerimiahs from a couple of days ago: http://www.nfl.com/draft/2014/mock-drafts/daniel-jeremiah/

With trades I think both Houston and the Rams could trade down with teams looking to draft either of these players or a QB. That is a somewhat loaded top 5 right now so moves may be small, for example the Browns moving up to pick 2 to get their QB target. But since Lombardi got canned I am not as certain the Browns make a move like this. The Falcons could possibly try to move to the Rams pick to draft Clowney, but if 3 QB are taken in the top 5, that means that either Clowney or one of the top 2 OT Robinson, Matthews will still be there for them at pick 6. So I think the Falcons stay where they are and take the guy who falls to them. If the Rams want one of the 2 tackles or Clowney I do not think they can drop later than pick 6.

If one of the 3 QB drops out of the top 5 then the Falcons could get hosed (those 3 players are already gone by pick 6 overall) this seems to be a breaking point of the top 6 highest demand players (that teams will trade up for QB, DE, OT).

Watkins might be in that group and perhaps a team would trade up for him. With the depth at WR in this draft, I do not see teams wanting to pay as much of a premium in return for trading up for him as I do these other 6 players right now, maybe Matthews isn't top 10.. but for a team needing a LT, I think he is as good or better than the tackles that were drafted high last season.

Jerimiah has 7 WR listed in his 1st round mock. So while Watkins may be very good, possibly near AJ Green JJ type level as a prospect ( I am not sure but some have been saying this recently such as Cosell) the demand for him is not as great due to the other WR options available to teams if they just wait. So less need to move up and get him.

 

[Mainevent]

I traded 1.01 last year and again this year... on a rebuild team fortunate enough to finish dead last back to back years.

12 team, ppr, superflex (can start 2 QBs)

Last year, 1.01 went for 1.08, 1.09, and 1.11 (ended up having 8 1st round picks)

This year had 1, 5, 7, 11 in the 1st, I am a lot closer to being competitive so...

Traded 1.01/Geno/Hopkins/2.12 for Matt Ryan... didn't want to bank on a rookie qb (or Geno) to fill a starting spot.

Taking known production over potential production in this case.

In dynasty you have to look at your teams position to determine which is the best way to go.

 

[JohnnyU]

I traded 1.01 last year and again this year... on a rebuild team fortunate enough to finish dead last back to back years.

12 team, ppr, superflex (can start 2 QBs)

Last year, 1.01 went for 1.08, 1.09, and 1.11 (ended up having 8 1st round picks)

This year had 1, 5, 7, 11 in the 1st, I am a lot closer to being competitive so...

Traded 1.01/Geno/Hopkins/2.12 for Matt Ryan... didn't want to bank on a rookie qb (or Geno) to fill a starting spot.

Taking known production over potential production in this case.

In dynasty you have to look at your teams position to determine which is the best way to go.

I wouldn't trade the 1.5 for Matt Ryan, let alone give the 1.01, Hopkins, Geno, and the 2.12. I now see why you have the 1.01 in back to back years.

 

[Danish Bengal]

Traded 1.01/Geno/Hopkins/2.12 for Matt Ryan... didn't want to bank on a rookie qb (or Geno) to fill a starting spot.

Taking known production over potential production in this case.

In dynasty you have to look at your teams position to determine which is the best way to go.

I have the 1.01 in two leagues, and I would be insulted if someone offered me Ryan for my pick

 

[LinusMarr]

I traded away my 1.3 rookie pick for Julius Thomas and his 1.9 pick. I will admit im not all over the current rookie class yet but seemed dropping 6 picks and getting JT was a no brainer for my non te having team lol

 

[Terpman22]

I traded 1.01 last year and again this year... on a rebuild team fortunate enough to finish dead last back to back years.

12 team, ppr, superflex (can start 2 QBs)

Last year, 1.01 went for 1.08, 1.09, and 1.11 (ended up having 8 1st round picks)

This year had 1, 5, 7, 11 in the 1st, I am a lot closer to being competitive so...

Traded 1.01/Geno/Hopkins/2.12 for Matt Ryan... didn't want to bank on a rookie qb (or Geno) to fill a starting spot.

Taking known production over potential production in this case.

In dynasty you have to look at your teams position to determine which is the best way to go.

Yeah man. Thats a pretty rough trade.

 

[Casting Couch]

I'd keep keenan allen.

Cruz helps me to a championship this season and the next few. Watkins may need a season.

Didn't Cruz have a crappy 2013? Also, you're operating with the redraft mentality and that is fine for redraft leagues, but with dynasty leagues you would be hard pressed to find anyone that would take Cruz over Watkins.

Yeah Cruz had an injury riddled season and that's why I'll give up the 1.01 for him in any league I can. Buy low I say.

You see this as Redraft thinking because you don't see the rest of my team. 50% of my teams are young up and comers and the other 50 are win now plus 2 to 4 years left of big time production. I trade away early picks if it makes sense and I've also traded up for luck and rg3 in the same draft - 1 QB league. You shouldn't, imo, see one trade and assume I have a Redraft type of thinking. Good points though.

I would take Sammy Watlins over Victor Cruz 397 days a year,.

 

[Casting Couch]

I traded 1.01 last year and again this year... on a rebuild team fortunate enough to finish dead last back to back years.

12 team, ppr, superflex (can start 2 QBs)

Last year, 1.01 went for 1.08, 1.09, and 1.11 (ended up having 8 1st round picks)

This year had 1, 5, 7, 11 in the 1st, I am a lot closer to being competitive so...

Traded 1.01/Geno/Hopkins/2.12 for Matt Ryan... didn't want to bank on a rookie qb (or Geno) to fill a starting spot.

Taking known production over potential production in this case.

In dynasty you have to look at your teams position to determine which is the best way to go.

Yeah man. Thats a pretty rough trade.

1.01/Geno/Hopkins/2.12 for Matt Ryan

Indeed, Horrrrrible trade.

 

[Terpman22]

I mean. If somehow Watkins, Geno and Hopkins all suffer career ending injuries, it might be considered a "sell high"

 

[ILUVBEER99]

I traded 1.01 last year and again this year... on a rebuild team fortunate enough to finish dead last back to back years.

12 team, ppr, superflex (can start 2 QBs)

Last year, 1.01 went for 1.08, 1.09, and 1.11 (ended up having 8 1st round picks)

This year had 1, 5, 7, 11 in the 1st, I am a lot closer to being competitive so...

Traded 1.01/Geno/Hopkins/2.12 for Matt Ryan... didn't want to bank on a rookie qb (or Geno) to fill a starting spot.

Taking known production over potential production in this case.

In dynasty you have to look at your teams position to determine which is the best way to go.

Yeah man. Thats a pretty rough trade.

1.01/Geno/Hopkins/2.12 for Matt Ryan

Indeed, Horrrrrible trade.

His league seems to be a super flex, still bad but not horrendous.

 

[FUBAR]

He said it's super flex.

Still too much for a rebuilder to give for Ryan, but the 1 would be cheap by itself