What is the street value for the 1.01 rookie pick? (1 Viewer)

[ghostguy123]

I traded 1.01 last year and again this year... on a rebuild team fortunate enough to finish dead last back to back years.

12 team, ppr, superflex (can start 2 QBs)

Last year, 1.01 went for 1.08, 1.09, and 1.11 (ended up having 8 1st round picks)

This year had 1, 5, 7, 11 in the 1st, I am a lot closer to being competitive so...

Traded 1.01/Geno/Hopkins/2.12 for Matt Ryan... didn't want to bank on a rookie qb (or Geno) to fill a starting spot.

Taking known production over potential production in this case.

In dynasty you have to look at your teams position to determine which is the best way to go.

I wouldn't trade the 1.5 for Matt Ryan, let alone give the 1.01, Hopkins, Geno, and the 2.12. I now see why you have the 1.01 in back to back years.

At least that first deal dealing the #1 last year for 8/9/11 was incredible, and I am flat out amazed someone did that last year.

But the other deal, superflex or not, WHY??? That seems bad in a start 3 QB league.

 

[ghostguy123]

I traded away my 1.3 rookie pick for Julius Thomas and his 1.9 pick. I will admit im not all over the current rookie class yet but seemed dropping 6 picks and getting JT was a no brainer for my non te having team lol

umm, yeah, that's a bad one in your favor bigtime.

 

[Biabreakable]

I think many of the people saying Matt Ryan is not worth a lot in dynasty (particularly in start 2QB?) suffer from recency bias.

 

[KellysHeroes]

I traded 1.01 last year and again this year... on a rebuild team fortunate enough to finish dead last back to back years.

12 team, ppr, superflex (can start 2 QBs)

Last year, 1.01 went for 1.08, 1.09, and 1.11 (ended up having 8 1st round picks)

This year had 1, 5, 7, 11 in the 1st, I am a lot closer to being competitive so...

Traded 1.01/Geno/Hopkins/2.12 for Matt Ryan... didn't want to bank on a rookie qb (or Geno) to fill a starting spot.

Taking known production over potential production in this case.

In dynasty you have to look at your teams position to determine which is the best way to go.

Yeah man. Thats a pretty rough trade.

1.01/Geno/Hopkins/2.12 for Matt Ryan

Indeed, Horrrrrible trade.

His league seems to be a super flex, still bad but not horrendous.

Ryan has put up good season totals, but 1.01 and Geno who was prob a late 1st last yr should have been more than enough.... there comes a point when u just have to decline

 

[KellysHeroes]

I traded away my 1.3 rookie pick for Julius Thomas and his 1.9 pick. I will admit im not all over the current rookie class yet but seemed dropping 6 picks and getting JT was a no brainer for my non te having team lol

umm, yeah, that's a bad one in your favor bigtime.

what happens to Julius when Manning leaves? I think his value is very dependant on that.

 

[JohnnyU]

I traded away my 1.3 rookie pick for Julius Thomas and his 1.9 pick. I will admit im not all over the current rookie class yet but seemed dropping 6 picks and getting JT was a no brainer for my non te having team lol

umm, yeah, that's a bad one in your favor bigtime.

what happens to Julius when Manning leaves? I think his value is very dependant on that.

That's fine because Manning will probably play 3 more years.

 

[mzkp54]

Crabtree or the 1.1?

 

[Biabreakable]

I traded 1.01 last year and again this year... on a rebuild team fortunate enough to finish dead last back to back years.

12 team, ppr, superflex (can start 2 QBs)

Last year, 1.01 went for 1.08, 1.09, and 1.11 (ended up having 8 1st round picks)

This year had 1, 5, 7, 11 in the 1st, I am a lot closer to being competitive so...

Traded 1.01/Geno/Hopkins/2.12 for Matt Ryan... didn't want to bank on a rookie qb (or Geno) to fill a starting spot.

Taking known production over potential production in this case.

In dynasty you have to look at your teams position to determine which is the best way to go.

You may have over paid slightly, but I think people trashing this trade do not recognize the full value of a top 5 QB in a start 2 QB league.

To me having to pay the 2.12 on top of the 1st overall (Watkin's perhaps?) and a top 5 rookie pick (Hopkins) and a late 1st-2nd round pick in Geno Smith (Jets ran a lot of plays 2 years in a row now.. I still am not seeing Smith being a top 15 QB) for Ryan does not seem that off to me, without knowing the rest of your roster (If you already have a strong QB to pair Ryan with.. seems good). I do think the 2.12 was a bit much, but that is essentially an extra 3rd round pick, in an admittedly deep draft, but depending on how many roster spots you have and the quality of depth of your team (many rookies added last season) that pick may not have a home on your roster.

 

[squistion]

Crabtree or the 1.1?

I own the 1.01 in two PPR leagues (24 roster and 15 keeper) and wouldn't trade either for him, however based on the few startups I have seen it is arguably ballpark. And the DFL January Mocks has his ADP at WR23 http://dynastyleaguefootball.com/rankings/adp-january/ although I think that is too high (haven't done my rankings yet, but I guess I would have him in the late teens).

 

[TheBottomLine]

I traded for 1.01 in one of my leagues, and I wouldn't trade it for Crabtree. I'm a big Crabby fan, have him in my other league, but I'd rather have Sammy.

Also, back to the 1.01 for 1.02 and 1.12. I am big enough on Sammy and desperate enough at WR that I would prefer to take him at 1.01 as opposed to trading for picks 1.02 and 1.12. Just me personally.

 

[Bronx Bomber]

16 team IDP league, traded away the 1.1/3.10/Teo for Michael Floyd/1.11/2.2

 

[ghostguy123]

I traded away my 1.3 rookie pick for Julius Thomas and his 1.9 pick. I will admit im not all over the current rookie class yet but seemed dropping 6 picks and getting JT was a no brainer for my non te having team lol

umm, yeah, that's a bad one in your favor bigtime.

what happens to Julius when Manning leaves? I think his value is very dependant on that.

I suppose I dont see pick 9 as that much inferior to pick 3 as you maybe?

 

[TheLurkerBelow]

Crabtree or the 1.1?

That's actually a pretty tough question, but I think between those I would want the 1.1. Crabtree has shown a lot of promise with Kaepernick, under center, but not enough to make me believe he's worth more than the 1.1 this year.

 

[salmonstud]

Trade in one of my leagues just went down 10 minutes ago - 1.1 & 2.1 for 1.2 & 1.7

 

[TheBottomLine]

Trade in one of my leagues just went down 10 minutes ago - 1.1 & 2.1 for 1.2 & 1.7

Very similar to the discussion between another manager and I. We discussed my 1.01 and 2.04 for his 1.03 and 1.07. I would want more though because I am big on Sammy.

 

[ghostguy123]

Trade in one of my leagues just went down 10 minutes ago - 1.1 & 2.1 for 1.2 & 1.7

Very similar to the discussion between another manager and I. We discussed my 1.01 and 2.04 for his 1.03 and 1.07. I would want more though because I am big on Sammy.

I would go with 2/7 over 1/13

I think I would also go with 3/7 over 1/16

Much prefer to have the #2 picks over the #3 if it only meant swapping a few spots in the early 2nd.

But I would pull the trigger and trade away the #1 for both deals.

A few weeks ago I actually traded picks 3/16 to move up to pick 1. Felt good about that hoping the Sammy love kicks in near the draft.

 

[Bamac]

This went down today in 12 team, 0.5 ppr, QRRWWWTF:

1.01 + 2015 3d

for

1.04 + 2015 1st

Post-startup; 2015 picks could be anywhere.

 

[solorca]

I'm a huge fan of Watkins and have been waiting for him to come to the NFL since I first watched him play in college. In most of my leagues, I don't have the ability to put together a package that will allow me to get the 1.01 without crippling my team, but in one league where I have some really good depth, I traded Matt Forte and Terrance Williams for the 1.01 and 2.01. The 2.01 and Williams are fairly close for me, so I was essentially giving up Forte for Watkins.

I realize I'm giving up an elite RB to get him, but he's also 28 and will reach the 29 year old dead zone in December. Once he hits that point, his trade value is essentially in the toilet...so I cashed out while I still had the chance.

 

[ghostguy123]

If I am competing and need Forte, I would prefer him over pick 1, but if I was rebuilding I would prefer the #1.

Then again, Forte SHOULD get you more in trade than pick #1 so if rebuilding a nice package of picks worth more than pick 1 would probably be the way to go if the guy with 1 has a stranglehold on the pick.

But I can definitely see the argument for pick 1 in almost any draft over ANY RB about to hit 29.

 

[LBH]

Was offered Cordarelle Patterson for 1.01

 

[Terpman22]

Was offered Cordarelle Patterson for 1.01

Man that's a tough one. But I think it's fair value either way. Personally, I would rather have Patterson.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

Was offered Cordarelle Patterson for 1.01

Man that's a tough one. But I think it's fair value either way. Personally, I would rather have Patterson.

Patterson's going almost a full round ahead of Watkins in startup ADP. I'm not as high on Patterson as some around here, but I would jump on that deal with both feet - if I were the Patterson owner, I'd be looking for 1.01+ for him.

 

[KellysHeroes]

Was offered Cordarelle Patterson for 1.01

Man that's a tough one. But I think it's fair value either way. Personally, I would rather have Patterson.

Patterson's going almost a full round ahead of Watkins in startup ADP. I'm not as high on Patterson as some around here, but I would jump on that deal with both feet - if I were the Patterson owner, I'd be looking for 1.01+ for him.

I thought Patterson should of been 1.01 in drafts last yr, atleast top 3 but he fell to the mid rounds in many leagues and I got him a bunch. So it would need to be lot more than this yrs 1.01 for me.

 

[Jeremy]

Was offered Cordarelle Patterson for 1.01

That seems to be a common over/under for the 1.01. I've seen this deal discussed a few places and there seems to be a fair amount of disagreement over which is better.

 

[Terpman22]

Was offered Cordarelle Patterson for 1.01

That seems to be a common over/under for the 1.01. I've seen this deal discussed a few places and there seems to be a fair amount of disagreement over which is better.

Which means, cutting thru all the b/s, its a pretty fair deal.

 

[ghostguy123]

Was offered Cordarelle Patterson for 1.01

That seems to be a common over/under for the 1.01. I've seen this deal discussed a few places and there seems to be a fair amount of disagreement over which is better.

Which means, cutting thru all the b/s, its a pretty fair deal.

Right. And I doubt either side thinks one side of the other is a TON more valuable.

 

[LBH]

Was offered Cordarelle Patterson for 1.01

That seems to be a common over/under for the 1.01. I've seen this deal discussed a few places and there seems to be a fair amount of disagreement over which is better.

Which means, cutting thru all the b/s, its a pretty fair deal.

Right. And I doubt either side thinks one side of the other is a TON more valuable.

I rejected the offer

 

[ghostguy123]

Was offered Cordarelle Patterson for 1.01

That seems to be a common over/under for the 1.01. I've seen this deal discussed a few places and there seems to be a fair amount of disagreement over which is better.

Which means, cutting thru all the b/s, its a pretty fair deal.

Right. And I doubt either side thinks one side of the other is a TON more valuable.

I rejected the offer

Ok. Do you think pick 1 is a lot more valuable than Patterson?

 

[ConnSKINS26]

I don't think that Patterson is so much more physically imposing than Watkins, or so much more dangerous after the catch, that we should let that outweigh the fact that Watkins is a much better WR, and extremely explosive in his own right.

 

[Jeremy]

My guess is that people will tend to hang on to what they have in a deal like that. If you have the 1.01 you'll want more than Patterson. If you have Patterson, you'll want more than the 1.01.

 

[aedenone]

How about 1.08 for Justin Hunter?

 

[LBH]

Was offered Cordarelle Patterson for 1.01

That seems to be a common over/under for the 1.01. I've seen this deal discussed a few places and there seems to be a fair amount of disagreement over which is better.

Which means, cutting thru all the b/s, its a pretty fair deal.

Right. And I doubt either side thinks one side of the other is a TON more valuable.

I rejected the offer

Ok. Do you think pick 1 is a lot more valuable than Patterson?

No I thought it was an even deal. Just prefered to hold the pick and see what other offers come my way closer to the draft

 

[JohnnyU]

My guess is that people will tend to hang on to what they have in a deal like that. If you have the 1.01 you'll want more than Patterson. If you have Patterson, you'll want more than the 1.01.

Most would give up the 1.1 in a heart beat for Patterson.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Was offered Cordarelle Patterson for 1.01

I saw that extact trade go down in another league.

 

[Terpman22]

My guess is that people will tend to hang on to what they have in a deal like that. If you have the 1.01 you'll want more than Patterson. If you have Patterson, you'll want more than the 1.01.

Most would give up the 1.1 in a heart beat for Patterson.

Maybe. You have to take into account they just suck at FF too, since they have the first pick.

 

[EBF]

Aye. To me, Patterson is worth about the 1.03-1.05. Same range that made sense for him a year ago.

He didn't do enough in his rookie year to where you can assume that he's going to become a mega star. At the same time, he showed enough flashes that his value shouldn't have dropped at all. I don't think his rookie year is one that should've moved the needle too much one way or the other. I probably like him a little more than I did out of college. I don't see why he would be considered good value for the 1.01 though. Only if you're totally sold that he's legit.

 

[Terpman22]

Aye. To me, Patterson is worth about the 1.03-1.05. Same range that made sense for him a year ago.

He didn't do enough in his rookie year to where you can assume that he's going to become a mega star. At the same time, he showed enough flashes that his value shouldn't have dropped at all. I don't think his rookie year is one that should've moved the needle too much one way or the other. I probably like him a little more than I did out of college. I don't see why he would be considered good value for the 1.01 though. Only if you're totally sold that he's legit.

Look at his last 6 games. Then add in Norv Turner and the fact that AP is obviously on the team. He will put up 1300 yards from scrimmage as a floor next year in my eyes.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Was offered Cordarelle Patterson for 1.01

That seems to be a common over/under for the 1.01. I've seen this deal discussed a few places and there seems to be a fair amount of disagreement over which is better.

Which means, cutting thru all the b/s, its a pretty fair deal.

Right. And I doubt either side thinks one side of the other is a TON more valuable.

I rejected the offer

Well if I'm guessing correctly the person that made you this offer is in the other league that I just mentioned where I saw this deal actuallly go down (and incidently the two parties that made that deal in this other league are also in the league where you recieved this offer).

I'm sure this made people's head hurt.

 

[EBF]

Aye. To me, Patterson is worth about the 1.03-1.05. Same range that made sense for him a year ago.

He didn't do enough in his rookie year to where you can assume that he's going to become a mega star. At the same time, he showed enough flashes that his value shouldn't have dropped at all. I don't think his rookie year is one that should've moved the needle too much one way or the other. I probably like him a little more than I did out of college. I don't see why he would be considered good value for the 1.01 though. Only if you're totally sold that he's legit.

Look at his last 6 games. Then add in Norv Turner and the fact that AP is obviously on the team. He will put up 1300 yards from scrimmage as a floor next year in my eyes.

What has he done to show that he belongs above this year's likely first round WRs like Watkins, Evans, Lee, Benjamin, and Robinson? Personally, I probably take him over 2-3 of those guys. But....he was a late first rounder and his receiving stats as a rookie were just okay. I totally get it if some people think he's going to be a mega star. I don't think there's anything in his performance as a rookie that really should boost his stock though.

He was touted as explosive, but raw. He looked explosive, but raw. I believe in upgrading/downgrading players when they perform better/worse than you expected, not when they merely do what they were supposed to do and nothing more/less.

 

[ghostguy123]

I think he performed better than expected, especially later in the year, and now his situation is better.

I am personally not sure if I prefer pick 1 or Patterson. I might not even know after the draft.

As far as "what did he do to increase his value from last years draft", I think if you have to ask that question then you either didn't watch, or don't realize what you were watching.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I think he performed better than expected, especially later in the year, and now his situation is better.

I am personally not sure if I prefer pick 1 or Patterson. I might not even know after the draft.

As far as "what did he do to increase his value from last years draft", I think if you have to ask that question then you either didn't watch, or don't realize what you were watching.

I don't think that's fair at all. It should come as no shock to anyone that he's a spectacular threat as a ball carrier, on bubble screens, in the return game, etc. That's what made him a 1st round NFL and FF pick last year, and that's what he showed. The reason he wasn't a HIGH 1st round pick were the legitimate questions about how long it will take him to learn the entire NFL route tree, and what he did last year doesn't address that at all.

 

[EBF]

I think he performed better than expected, especially later in the year, and now his situation is better.

I am personally not sure if I prefer pick 1 or Patterson. I might not even know after the draft.

As far as "what did he do to increase his value from last years draft", I think if you have to ask that question then you either didn't watch, or don't realize what you were watching.

I don't think that's fair at all. It should come as no shock to anyone that he's a spectacular threat as a ball carrier, on bubble screens, in the return game, etc. That's what made him a 1st round NFL and FF pick last year, and that's what he showed. The reason he wasn't a HIGH pick were the legitimate questions about how long it will take him to learn the entire NFL route tree, and what he did last year doesn't address that at all.

Yeah, exactly.

When a guy comes into to the league as a first round pick lauded for his explosiveness, why would you bump him up based on him showing that explosiveness? Didn't people already know he was a big guy who ran well in the open field? Isn't that why he was a top 32 NFL draft pick and a consensus top 5-6 rookie pick?

I'm not saying he can't be a superstar. I'm saying nothing in his rookie performance exceeded what he was touted as all along. Thus there's little reason to significantly bump up his value. Likewise, if Watkins comes out next year and gets 700-800 yards with a handful of impressive TDs, is that really going to move the needle at all? Isn't that sort of what we expect him to do? I don't know why you would adjust a player's value when he merely meets your expectations, apart from maybe eliminating some of the Rashaun Woods/AJ Jenkins/Buster Davis DOA bust risk that you might have assigned to him before his rookie year.

 

[bengalbuck]

Nearing the end of a startup auction with the draft picks each up for auction alongside the players and the 1.01 went for $76 ($500 budget).

Keenan Allen also went for $76.

Patterson went for $81. So at least 1 owner liked him more than the 1.01.

A lot of the other guys mentioned in this thread like Crabtree and Cruz went in the the $40-$50 range, so pretty significantly less valuable than the 1.01.

 

[bengalbuck]

I think he performed better than expected, especially later in the year, and now his situation is better.

I am personally not sure if I prefer pick 1 or Patterson. I might not even know after the draft.

As far as "what did he do to increase his value from last years draft", I think if you have to ask that question then you either didn't watch, or don't realize what you were watching.

I don't think that's fair at all. It should come as no shock to anyone that he's a spectacular threat as a ball carrier, on bubble screens, in the return game, etc. That's what made him a 1st round NFL and FF pick last year, and that's what he showed. The reason he wasn't a HIGH pick were the legitimate questions about how long it will take him to learn the entire NFL route tree, and what he did last year doesn't address that at all.

Yeah, exactly.

When a guy comes into to the league as a first round pick lauded for his explosiveness, why would you bump him up based on him showing that explosiveness? Didn't people already know he was a big guy who ran well in the open field? Isn't that why he was a top 32 NFL draft pick and a consensus top 5-6 rookie pick?

I'm not saying he can't be a superstar. I'm saying nothing in his rookie performance exceeded what he was touted as all along. Thus there's little reason to significantly bump up his value. Likewise, if Watkins comes out next year and gets 700-800 yards with a handful of impressive TDs, is that really going to move the needle at all? Isn't that sort of what we expect him to do? I don't know why you would adjust a player's value when he merely meets your expectations, apart from maybe eliminating some of the Rashaun Woods/AJ Jenkins/Buster Davis DOA bust risk that you might have assigned to him before his rookie year.

I understand your point, but I disagree a bit. Patterson looked even more explosive and dynamic than advertised in my opinion.

We also knew that Tavon Austin was really fast and explosive and he was generally a higher pick than Patterson in rookie drafts. Patterson was a lot more impressive just purely from a physical and athletic perspective against NFL talent than Tavon. Thus he moved up while Tavon's stock has dropped.

While I agree that he still has to show he can overcome a lot of the negatives that were on his scouting report, in my opinion he would go higher than 26 overall in the real NFL draft if they re-picked today based on what he showed. He might even go top 10 overall. And I think his fantasy stock is also higher based on what he showed.

 

[KellysHeroes]

contract league where I have 1.02 / 1.03 / 1.07; was thinking of offering 1.03 & 7 for 1.01 and next yrs 1st. That way I get Watkins and whoever I value next after the draft.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I think he performed better than expected, especially later in the year, and now his situation is better.

I am personally not sure if I prefer pick 1 or Patterson. I might not even know after the draft.

As far as "what did he do to increase his value from last years draft", I think if you have to ask that question then you either didn't watch, or don't realize what you were watching.

I don't think that's fair at all. It should come as no shock to anyone that he's a spectacular threat as a ball carrier, on bubble screens, in the return game, etc. That's what made him a 1st round NFL and FF pick last year, and that's what he showed. The reason he wasn't a HIGH pick were the legitimate questions about how long it will take him to learn the entire NFL route tree, and what he did last year doesn't address that at all.

Yeah, exactly.

When a guy comes into to the league as a first round pick lauded for his explosiveness, why would you bump him up based on him showing that explosiveness? Didn't people already know he was a big guy who ran well in the open field? Isn't that why he was a top 32 NFL draft pick and a consensus top 5-6 rookie pick?

I'm not saying he can't be a superstar. I'm saying nothing in his rookie performance exceeded what he was touted as all along. Thus there's little reason to significantly bump up his value. Likewise, if Watkins comes out next year and gets 700-800 yards with a handful of impressive TDs, is that really going to move the needle at all? Isn't that sort of what we expect him to do? I don't know why you would adjust a player's value when he merely meets your expectations, apart from maybe eliminating some of the Rashaun Woods/AJ Jenkins/Buster Davis DOA bust risk that you might have assigned to him before his rookie year.

I understand your point, but I disagree a bit. Patterson looked even more explosive and dynamic than advertised in my opinion.

We also knew that Tavon Austin was really fast and explosive and he was generally a higher pick than Patterson in rookie drafts. Patterson was a lot more impressive just purely from a physical and athletic perspective against NFL talent than Tavon. Thus he moved up while Tavon's stock has dropped.

While I agree that he still has to show he can overcome a lot of the negatives that were on his scouting report, in my opinion he would go higher than 26 overall in the real NFL draft if they re-picked today based on what he showed. He might even go top 10 overall. And I think his fantasy stock is also higher based on what he showed.

Austin's run against Arizona was equally or more impressive than anything Patterson did last year IMO. That run was absolutely ridiculous. Austin and Patterson are pretty close to the same guy IMO -- both have absurd big play potential that literally jumps off the screen, and both have questions about their ability to be a traditional NFL WR, although for different reasons. It's amazing that Patterson is valued so much more highly, considering they had almost identical rookie years, and despite his size, Austin was a much higher pick. Austin at his WR3 price is an infinitely better buy than is Patterson at his WR1 price.

 

[DropKick]

I traded 1.01 last year and again this year... on a rebuild team fortunate enough to finish dead last back to back years.

12 team, ppr, superflex (can start 2 QBs)

Last year, 1.01 went for 1.08, 1.09, and 1.11 (ended up having 8 1st round picks)

This year had 1, 5, 7, 11 in the 1st, I am a lot closer to being competitive so...

Traded 1.01/Geno/Hopkins/2.12 for Matt Ryan... didn't want to bank on a rookie qb (or Geno) to fill a starting spot.

Taking known production over potential production in this case.

In dynasty you have to look at your teams position to determine which is the best way to go.

You may have over paid slightly, but I think people trashing this trade do not recognize the full value of a top 5 QB in a start 2 QB league.

To me having to pay the 2.12 on top of the 1st overall (Watkin's perhaps?) and a top 5 rookie pick (Hopkins) and a late 1st-2nd round pick in Geno Smith (Jets ran a lot of plays 2 years in a row now.. I still am not seeing Smith being a top 15 QB) for Ryan does not seem that off to me, without knowing the rest of your roster (If you already have a strong QB to pair Ryan with.. seems good). I do think the 2.12 was a bit much, but that is essentially an extra 3rd round pick, in an admittedly deep draft, but depending on how many roster spots you have and the quality of depth of your team (many rookies added last season) that pick may not have a home on your roster.

He overpaid. Ryan was 11th in my league last year. Tony G. is retiring. Julio is coming off injury. And Roddy is another year older. You never know what the future will bring - Atlanta could return to a ball control/balanced offense.

Maybe you under estimate the value of the 1.1? It sounds this team needed a QB badly - so I can understand a big move. But you have to be a tough negotiator. There are some negatives around Ryan after a bad year and you have to exploit that.

I might have offered the 1/1/Geno for Ryan and let him sit on it. That depends though on the rest of my roster... If I thought I really need a RB/WR, I'd have kept the 1.01 and shopped around for a QB.

 

[ghostguy123]

Good comparison with austin. Austin showed what I expected, and i value him far less.

Patterson showed what I expected, and I bump his value up.

We all view it differently. From what I saw from Patterson, his future looks brighter than I thought it would at this time last year.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

I traded 1.01 last year and again this year... on a rebuild team fortunate enough to finish dead last back to back years.

12 team, ppr, superflex (can start 2 QBs)

Last year, 1.01 went for 1.08, 1.09, and 1.11 (ended up having 8 1st round picks)

This year had 1, 5, 7, 11 in the 1st, I am a lot closer to being competitive so...

Traded 1.01/Geno/Hopkins/2.12 for Matt Ryan... didn't want to bank on a rookie qb (or Geno) to fill a starting spot.

Taking known production over potential production in this case.

In dynasty you have to look at your teams position to determine which is the best way to go.

You may have over paid slightly, but I think people trashing this trade do not recognize the full value of a top 5 QB in a start 2 QB league.

To me having to pay the 2.12 on top of the 1st overall (Watkin's perhaps?) and a top 5 rookie pick (Hopkins) and a late 1st-2nd round pick in Geno Smith (Jets ran a lot of plays 2 years in a row now.. I still am not seeing Smith being a top 15 QB) for Ryan does not seem that off to me, without knowing the rest of your roster (If you already have a strong QB to pair Ryan with.. seems good). I do think the 2.12 was a bit much, but that is essentially an extra 3rd round pick, in an admittedly deep draft, but depending on how many roster spots you have and the quality of depth of your team (many rookies added last season) that pick may not have a home on your roster.

He overpaid. Ryan was 11th in my league last year. Tony G. is retiring. Julio is coming off injury. And Roddy is another year older. You never know what the future will bring - Atlanta could return to a ball control/balanced offense.

Maybe you under estimate the value of the 1.1? It sounds this team needed a QB badly - so I can understand a big move. But you have to be a tough negotiator. There are some negatives around Ryan after a bad year and you have to exploit that.

I might have offered the 1/1/Geno for Ryan and let him sit on it. That depends though on the rest of my roster... If I thought I really need a RB/WR, I'd have kept the 1.01 and shopped around for a QB.

Did you catch that it's a Superflex league? Nothing but a QB is going 1.01.

 

[bengalbuck]

I think he performed better than expected, especially later in the year, and now his situation is better.

I am personally not sure if I prefer pick 1 or Patterson. I might not even know after the draft.

As far as "what did he do to increase his value from last years draft", I think if you have to ask that question then you either didn't watch, or don't realize what you were watching.

I don't think that's fair at all. It should come as no shock to anyone that he's a spectacular threat as a ball carrier, on bubble screens, in the return game, etc. That's what made him a 1st round NFL and FF pick last year, and that's what he showed. The reason he wasn't a HIGH pick were the legitimate questions about how long it will take him to learn the entire NFL route tree, and what he did last year doesn't address that at all.

Yeah, exactly.

When a guy comes into to the league as a first round pick lauded for his explosiveness, why would you bump him up based on him showing that explosiveness? Didn't people already know he was a big guy who ran well in the open field? Isn't that why he was a top 32 NFL draft pick and a consensus top 5-6 rookie pick?

I'm not saying he can't be a superstar. I'm saying nothing in his rookie performance exceeded what he was touted as all along. Thus there's little reason to significantly bump up his value. Likewise, if Watkins comes out next year and gets 700-800 yards with a handful of impressive TDs, is that really going to move the needle at all? Isn't that sort of what we expect him to do? I don't know why you would adjust a player's value when he merely meets your expectations, apart from maybe eliminating some of the Rashaun Woods/AJ Jenkins/Buster Davis DOA bust risk that you might have assigned to him before his rookie year.

I understand your point, but I disagree a bit. Patterson looked even more explosive and dynamic than advertised in my opinion.

We also knew that Tavon Austin was really fast and explosive and he was generally a higher pick than Patterson in rookie drafts. Patterson was a lot more impressive just purely from a physical and athletic perspective against NFL talent than Tavon. Thus he moved up while Tavon's stock has dropped.

While I agree that he still has to show he can overcome a lot of the negatives that were on his scouting report, in my opinion he would go higher than 26 overall in the real NFL draft if they re-picked today based on what he showed. He might even go top 10 overall. And I think his fantasy stock is also higher based on what he showed.

Austin's run against Arizona was equally or more impressive than anything Patterson did last year IMO. That run was absolutely ridiculous. Austin and Patterson are pretty close to the same guy IMO -- both have absurd big play potential that literally jumps off the screen, and both have questions about their ability to be a traditional NFL WR, although for different reasons. It's amazing that Patterson is valued so much more highly, considering they had almost identical rookie years, and despite his size, Austin was a much higher pick. Austin at his WR3 price is an infinitely better buy than is Patterson at his WR1 price.

Interesting you say that as I got Austin for $20 while Patterson went for $81 and felt pretty good about it. While I definitely like Patterson more, I do think the perceived gap right now is maybe too far between the 2.

Good comparison with austin. Austin showed what I expected, and i value him far less.

Patterson showed what I expected, and I bump his value up.

We all view it differently. From what I saw from Patterson, his future looks brighter than I thought it would at this time last year.

Yeah, totally agree though Austin actually showed less than what I expected. He was my #2 rookie behind only Gio and he just didn't make as many plays as I thought he would and, given the number of targets he got, made less big plays than I thought he would. He is a guy whose stock has fallen a decent amount in my eyes, though I am not giving up on him.

I was pretty down on Patterson and had him as my #7 rookie last offseason but when I saw him play the Bengals late last season, his combo of speed, elusiveness and power really jumped off the screen to me. So I definitely agree with you and think his future looks brighter now than I thought it did last preseason.