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What is your biggest Fantasy Football worry for 2022-23? (1 Viewer)

BoltNlava

BoltNlava

Footballguy
Every year when nothing is going on most will relax and take the time off to recharge. I tend to start to worry what will go wrong or what can possibly go wrong this time. Are there  things you worry about after the draft and before leagues gear up? 

I  only have 2 leagues now and finished 2nd in both. Drafting out of the 6 hole in a 12 teamer in both. So...things went wrong. I would like to draft out of a better slot but I'm also nervous about all the movement this year (again).  There are a lot of factors. Especially in the AFC West.

 
BoltNlava said:
Are there  things you worry about after the draft and before leagues gear up? 
 
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It’s never too early for a post-mortem/ways to improve next year thread.

My big take-away for my redraft league from last year: BPA is great, but it is also important to diversify.

Last year in redraft I got a bit too cavalier with my “BPA at all costs” strategy.  Ended up with 4 pairs of players in Mixon/Higgins, Ridley/Pitts, CMC/DJM, & Stafford/Hendo

its a lot of eggs in just 4 baskets. When the CAR passing game fell apart it took a toll. Then CMC went down, which didn’t help, but there were games where each of those team struggles had an oversized impact on my fantasy team.

Plus it’s 2 big chunks missing for BYE weeks, and none of those 4 teams had the same BYE.

So this year in coin flip situations, imma look at BYEs, and take the player not on the same team.

Probably. Not every time. But some of the times. At least not as many times as last year. Unless the value is too great. Then maybe. But probably not. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
It’s never too early for a post-mortem/ways to improve next year thread.

My big take-away for my redraft league from last year: BPA is great, but it is also important to diversify.

Last year in redraft I got a bit too cavalier with my “BPA at all costs” strategy.  Ended up with 4 pairs of players in Mixon/Higgins, Ridley/Pitts, CMC/DJM, & Stafford/Hendo

its a lot of eggs in just 4 baskets. When the CAR passing game fell apart it took a toll. Then CMC went down, which didn’t help, but there were games where each of those team struggles had an oversized impact on my fantasy team.

Plus it’s 2 big chunks missing for BYE weeks, and none of those 4 teams had the same BYE.

So this year in coin flip situations, imma look at BYEs, and take the player not on the same team.

Probably. Not every time. But some of the times. At least not as many times as last year. Unless the value is too great. Then maybe. But probably not. 
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As long as you're sure.

I'm on the other side of this idea philosophically, and I'd say that would be a knee jerk reaction. You didn't screw up taking 4 pairs of players, you screwed up by taking 3(arguably 4) players who just didn't pan out. There are countless examples for sure, but I'll use one from one of my teams a year ago, where I ended up with Herbert, Ekeler, and Mike Williams. Didn't have any issues with 3 guys from 1 team, because they all panned out. Same team also had Chase and Mixon(after a trade for Mixon when he was banged up early in the year) and that didn't hurt either.

Truthfully, in situations where I truly have guys equal, I tend to lean more toward having players from the same team. I feel it adds some consistency to your roster(especially if its from a good offense, where if one guy has a down week it likely means the other guy had a good week) and I'd rather take a big hit in 1 bye week, than a bunch of smaller hits over the course of the season. 

 
I really stressed out last summer before my redraft league. I did a lot of work. I’m happy now that I had done such a deep dive but when things went off the rails last year with that team, it bummed me out. 
 

I’ve turned the page and joined a dynasty league which has been super fun. I’m looking forward to doing a minimal amount of prep for redraft, given my greater understanding of the players. The work I’m putting in now feels productive.

The last few months working trades and learning about the rookies and devy content has been a real blast.

 
I had injuries galore last year and somehow finished regular season first. No way that happens again, but biggest fear is those players I should have been able to count on lost value because of it and can’t move them. If they repeat that feat, value falls off the map and I’m stuck with them (hi Calvin Ridley). 

 
That the NFL puts teams on bye week 13 and 14 again to ruin the FFPC and RTS playoffs.  Last year I faded Taylor because he byed week 14 and I did not want my 1st round pick on bye for the playoffs.  So barely any shares of the top RB last year.

I am sure they will do it again not sure why I would expect anything less.  They have no bye weeks until week 6 then go with 2 teams on a bye then put 6 teams on a bye in week 10 and 11 and extend byes all the way to week 14.

 
Also this is the NFL 2022 season no one calls it the 2022-2023 season this isn't basketball.  Yes they now play a week or two in 2023 but still no one considers this a 2022-2023 season.

 
I have 1 dynasty team in a total rebuild (sold off Zeke and Tyreek and now have 3 2023 1st and 2 2023 2nds) but I worry that my team might actually do ok this year but I want the 1.1 (but refuse to outright tank). 
starting lineup of Herbert, JWilliams, RJones, Pittman, Cooks, Claypool, Andrews might lead me to a .500 record that I don’t want!

 
joey said:
I have 1 dynasty team in a total rebuild (sold off Zeke and Tyreek and now have 3 2023 1st and 2 2023 2nds) but I worry that my team might actually do ok this year but I want the 1.1 (but refuse to outright tank). 
starting lineup of Herbert, JWilliams, RJones, Pittman, Cooks, Claypool, Andrews might lead me to a .500 record that I don’t want!
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No way is that lineup getting you the #1 pick. Better hope someone else's #1 gets you that pick. If Pittman takes another leap forward, and Williams separates from Gordon, you're likely a playoff team. 

 
travdogg said:
No way is that lineup getting you the #1 pick. Better hope someone else's #1 gets you that pick. If Pittman takes another leap forward, and Williams separates from Gordon, you're likely a playoff team. 
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Agreed. I’ve got to convince one of the other teams to tank! ;)  

1 team is likely a playoff team (top 5) and the other is just a hair worse than me so hopefully in the 4-6 range. 
 

 
joey said:
I have 1 dynasty team in a total rebuild (sold off Zeke and Tyreek and now have 3 2023 1st and 2 2023 2nds) but I worry that my team might actually do ok this year but I want the 1.1 (but refuse to outright tank). 
starting lineup of Herbert, JWilliams, RJones, Pittman, Cooks, Claypool, Andrews might lead me to a .500 record that I don’t want!
Click to expand...
Don’t worry about getting the No. 1 pick. From what I hear the top 16 players in next years draft will be the 16 greatest players in NFL history when all is done. 

 
greenmountaingoat said:
I really stressed out last summer before my redraft league. I did a lot of work. I’m happy now that I had done such a deep dive but when things went off the rails last year with that team, it bummed me out. 
 

I’ve turned the page and joined a dynasty league which has been super fun. I’m looking forward to doing a minimal amount of prep for redraft, given my greater understanding of the players. The work I’m putting in now feels productive.

The last few months working trades and learning about the rookies and devy content has been a real blast.
Click to expand...
This has me thinking that I might do the same . My only concern is if players are no longer honoring their contracts it would be a little difficult to determine who to choose and when and then really why.

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
It’s never too early for a post-mortem/ways to improve next year thread.

My big take-away for my redraft league from last year: BPA is great, but it is also important to diversify.

Last year in redraft I got a bit too cavalier with my “BPA at all costs” strategy.  Ended up with 4 pairs of players in Mixon/Higgins, Ridley/Pitts, CMC/DJM, & Stafford/Hendo

its a lot of eggs in just 4 baskets. When the CAR passing game fell apart it took a toll. Then CMC went down, which didn’t help, but there were games where each of those team struggles had an oversized impact on my fantasy team.

Plus it’s 2 big chunks missing for BYE weeks, and none of those 4 teams had the same BYE.

So this year in coin flip situations, imma look at BYEs, and take the player not on the same team.

Probably. Not every time. But some of the times. At least not as many times as last year. Unless the value is too great. Then maybe. But probably not. 
Click to expand...
Last year I ended up with Burrow/Chase/Higgins so that worked out. But usually it doesn't. 

 
Not worries exactly, but deep thoughts:

1. How will the Chiefs WR production be distributed? 

2. Will the Bengals offense continue to level up?

3. Are the Lions fantasy relevant again?

 
My dynasty WRs were going to be a strength heading into this year.   The off-season (and end of last season) has done me dirty.

Godwin - ACL/MCL

Deebo - social media

Thielen - nobody ever values his fantasy production correctly

J Meyers - already a fringe guy the change in ne coaching plus the additions to the WR room

Shenault - went from third year break out to washout in one erroneous Kirk contract

Cordarrell Patterson - cheat code at WR moved to rb where I was set, now possibly 3rd rb and wr on a terrible offense with no qb

But hey, Brady is back.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
My biggest fantasy football worry is worry itself.
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JFK was onto something.

Little known fact: JFK started and hosted one of the very first fantasy football leagues. On draft night he had Marilyn Monroe write all the selected players on a giant chalk board.  In the last year of the league LBJ got up in a drunken rage and knocked over the draft board, because his favorite Dallas Cowboys were being sniped by JFK right before his next pick.  The rest is history. 

 
Leroy Hoard said:
JFK was onto something.

Little known fact: JFK started and hosted one of the very first fantasy football leagues. On draft night he had Marilyn Monroe write all the selected players on a giant chalk board.  In the last year of the league LBJ got up in a drunken rage and knocked over the draft board, because his favorite Dallas Cowboys were being sniped by JFK right before his next pick.  The rest is history. 
Click to expand...
Now this is the conspiracy theory that makes sense

 
My Empire Dynasty league is really good at making me neurotic.   For those unfamiliar, it's a dynasty where the league ends as soon as someone wins two championships in a row (or another set number),  grabbing the giant payout of 50% of the league's entry for the history of the league in the process.

Took my lumps early and have built a team that I absolutely love.   Unfortunately, can't get over the hump losing two championships in a row.   The team that beat me last year is a real threat to repeat.  Beyond not winning the grand prize, the idea of losing this team if the guy repeats kills me.

So, this is what I'm sweating out in May:

  • Mahomes staying healthy.   1QB league, but this is the one position where I have no depth.
  • Mahomes performance without Tyreke
  • AJB's knees.   Is their a chronic situation going on?    Should I cash out before it's too late?
  • Antonio Gibson.   He's my RB3, so I can deal with the diminished outlook, but they showed this guy zero love.   It's enough to make me worry whether the Commanders know something I don't?
  • Do I protect two quality DSTs at the expense of Sony Michel or Gus Bus?   NO and DAL were great last year, but I could see them taking a step back.   DST is way too important in this league if you consider yourself a contender.    You need multiple good to great DSTs with a decent to great matchup each week. I think Michel and Gus are too good to drop, but there's zero interest right now.
  • 2023 1st rounders.   Yeah, it's supposed to be good and I'm glad I have two, but if the defending champ wins these will evaporate into thin air and that will make the end of the league hurt that much worse.   If the league does survive, then this same team somehow pried away the 1st rounder of the worst team in the league, so seeing him get Bijan will also suck, even if he's no longer the champ.
  • Henry & Kelce.   Would love to sell in a normal dynasty before they fall off a cliff, but I feel like I have to swing my best ax if my team meets the defending champ.   It's a HOLD, but I hate the idea of watching these guys disintegrate to nothing.
 
sushinsky4tsar said:
You need multiple good to great DSTs with a decent to great matchup each week
Click to expand...
There's a lot there but I'm going to spot focus on this.  Turnovers and defensive tds are a huge crap shot year to year.  If that's what makes or breaks your league that's no bueno

 
sushinsky4tsar said:
My Empire Dynasty league is really good at making me neurotic.   For those unfamiliar, it's a dynasty where the league ends as soon as someone wins two championships in a row (or another set number),  grabbing the giant payout of 50% o

f the league's entry for the history of the league in the process.

Took my lumps early and have built a team that I absolutely love.   Unfortunately, can't get over the hump losing two championships in a row.   The team that beat me last year is a real threat to repeat.  Beyond not winning the grand prize, the idea of losing this team if the guy repeats kills me.

So, this is what I'm sweating out in May:

  • Mahomes staying healthy.   1QB league, but this is the one position where I have no depth.
  • Mahomes performance without Tyreke
  • AJB's knees.   Is their a chronic situation going on?    Should I cash out before it's too late?
  • Antonio Gibson.   He's my RB3, so I can deal with the diminished outlook, but they showed this guy zero love.   It's enough to make me worry whether the Commanders know something I don't?
  • Do I protect two quality DSTs at the expense of Sony Michel or Gus Bus?   NO and DAL were great last year, but I could see them taking a step back.   DST is way too important in this league if you consider yourself a contender.    You need multiple good to great DSTs with a decent to great matchup each week. I think Michel and Gus are too good to drop, but there's zero interest right now.
  • 2023 1st rounders.   Yeah, it's supposed to be good and I'm glad I have two, but if the defending champ wins these will evaporate into thin air and that will make the end of the league hurt that much worse.   If the league does survive, then this same team somehow pried away the 1st rounder of the worst team in the league, so seeing him get Bijan will also suck, even if he's no longer the champ.
  • Henry & Kelce.   Would love to sell in a normal dynasty before they fall off a cliff, but I feel like I have to swing my best ax if my team meets the defending champ.   It's a HOLD, but I hate the idea of watching these guys disintegrate to nothing.
Click to expand...
This was more of what I had in mind in terms of responses. Although I only do redraft for now, this is the level of worry I have about forming a team. Your worry about Mahomes seems legit. He has struggled as it is with Hill. Without him seems to cloud it further. When I say struggled, I mean that he  made it look so easy in SB year. 

 
We've seen a rookie WR tier emerge (London, Burks, Wilson, Williams) but no clarity at all re: an order within that tier.  I've got the 1.01 and 1.04 in a 1QB dynasty, and I'm taking Hall unless I get a haul which is unlikely.  But I keep flip flopping my preference of those 4 WRs.  Every talking head these days has an opinion on that order, and it's information overload right now...

1. Do I take Wilson at 4, and go back to back Jets?  If ZW doesn't pan out I'm staring at two (potentially) good pieces of a bad offense.  I know, talent > landing spot, good players can still put up points, but bad offenses hamper ceilings.  But if ZW takes a step or two, maybe I'd be on the brink of having two key pieces of the new hot offense...  
2. Do I take London at 4 (I have Pitts) and now have two receivers on what should also be a bad offense - this may commit me to another tank year.
3. Do I take Burks at 4 - most potential upside, also most bust potential IMO, but would divest me from having paired teammates.
4. Do I take Williams (I have ARSB) - see #1 and #2 above

So I think my plan is to take Hall and Burks, which means Burks will go 1.03 with 99% certainty.  Part of me says screw it all,  just take Hall and then trade back, be rid of this draft (I'd have no other picks until the 4th and 5th), tank again, start selling a couple more pieces and go full @Hot Sauce Guy and get all the '23 firsts.  That sounds like the fun option anyway...

 
wgoldsph said:
There's a lot there but I'm going to spot focus on this.  Turnovers and defensive tds are a huge crap shot year to year.  If that's what makes or breaks your league that's no bueno
Click to expand...
 I agree, the DST scoring system should not have a 20 point swing from week-to-week.  Turnovers and TD scoring is pretty normal but the reward/punishment for points allowed is far too variable.   The weekly season-high for the entire league might be 20 to 23 points in my redraft league.   I will usually average 6-7 points streaming and get one week north of 15, pretty much what I consider normal to slightly conservative scoring format.   

Meanwhile, in dynasty I pretty much "streamed" from my rostered collection of DAL-IND-NO and it was a big advantage.   Dallas alone had scores of 16, 18, 19, 23, 26, 27.   Great fantasy year, but this should never happen when the other scoring metrics are pretty standard.

Consequently, I think I need to hoard NO & DAL if they have any chance of being solid to good, which I think they do.   As opposed to doing something fun like throwing a dart on another late round RB.

 
BoltNlava said:
This was more of what I had in mind in terms of responses. Although I only do redraft for now, this is the level of worry I have about forming a team. Your worry about Mahomes seems legit. He has struggled as it is with Hill. Without him seems to cloud it further. When I say struggled, I mean that he  made it look so easy in SB year. 
Click to expand...


I harbor a lot of resentment for CEH.   The offense has never looked the same as when balls were getting dumped off to Hunt and even Damien Williams for huge gains in Mahomes' redshirt rookie season.   I know it's very high bar, but I will be disappointed if he never gets back to 50 TDs.   I really need a 40+ just to make sure it's still there, but not holding my breath in 2022.   

I guess I should harbor less resentment for CEH and more for K. Hunt.  🙂  Patrick has a role in this too.

 
sushinsky4tsar said:
I harbor a lot of resentment for CEH.   The offense has never looked the same as when balls were getting dumped off to Hunt and even Damien Williams for huge gains in Mahomes' redshirt rookie season.   I know it's very high bar, but I will be disappointed if he never gets back to 50 TDs.   I really need a 40+ just to make sure it's still there, but not holding my breath in 2022.   

I guess I should harbor less resentment for CEH and more for K. Hunt.  🙂  Patrick has a role in this too.
Click to expand...
How about the resentment for Reid for not knowing how to utilize his players?  

 
sushinsky4tsar said:
I guess I should harbor less resentment for CEH and more for K. Hunt.  🙂  Patrick has a role in this too.
Click to expand...
i saw Mahomes 50 TD as unsustainable. He’s a great QB, and fantasy gold, but I felt that was a bit of a flukey year. Combination of his ability, and taking an unprepared league by storm.

Defensive coordinators always make adjustments, and Reid isn’t immune. 

That’s partly why I sold on PM. It’ll be interesting to see how he adapts to life without Tyreek Hill. I wouldn’t be shocked to see a 40+ TD season, but I also wouldn’t be shocked to see a 35 TD season. 

 
BoltNlava said:
CEH killed me in redraft. Have swung clear ever since. I really do view him as a bust in FF and IRL.
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I agree. He’s a plodder. He gets very little for himself and only what the line gives him.

He also isn’t a YAC guy, and seems to have not great vision. His burst is lackluster, yet he tries to bounce runs to the outside. This usually results in running 9 yards to pick up 2.

I think folks are underestimating what a threat RoJo is to CEH. For all the hype on CEH he’s been pretty bad, and for all of the negative hype about RoJo, he’s been a really solid pure rusher, with burst, vision & power - all the things CEH isn’t.

Will be interesting to see how 2022 goes in that KC backfield. 

 
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Hot Sauce Guy said:
i think @rockactionhas been on point with CEH since day 1. KC drafted the wrong RB.
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Thanks, man. I think that I was a little too strong about it, though. Just red flags all over. And the jury's still out somehow. Just goes to show you what draft capital will get you for teams. If only I'll listen to myself about that. Learn as you go, I guess. 

wgoldsph said:
He was right all along, and I hate to admit it.
Click to expand...
I'll certainly acknowledge the compliment and pass on the victory lap so soon. 

 
CEH was one of those guys that failed the tests, aside from his burst score, which was excellent. 

In other words, I'm not blown away by the guy running a 4.40 and I'm not looking at that time as a predictive measure of success. I'm more looking to weed out the guy that can't break a 4.60 at a certain height/weight. That was CEH. He was small and slow, and that is a bad combination for the NFL. Now, was his issue last year an internal organ issue like he claims? Quite possibly. 

When it comes down to it, my general point is that the testing weeds out at the tail end of the curve with accuracy while it remains less predictive when one is a strong tester. Failing the tests correlates well with failure. Passing the tests doesn't really correlate with future success.

rockaction qoute^^^^^^^

 
I'll add to the thread. 

I play IDP. I used two mid second round picks on Micah Parsons and Jamin Davis. 

My biggest fear is that one doesn't develop and the other keeps getting deployed on the defensive line instead of at linebacker. A usage like that really hurts a LBs scoring. In a league where we average about 210-215, it can be the difference between ten points (if on the line) and twenty or even twenty-five points (if at linebacker proper for Parsons). That's huge. That's my biggest worry. That and my running backs are really suspect. But I know that. What the unknown is with those two guys is worse. 

 
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rockaction said:
I'll add to the thread. 

I play IDP. I used two mid second round picks on Micah Parsons and Jamin Davis. 

My biggest fear is that one doesn't develop and the other keeps getting deployed on the defensive line instead of at linebacker. A usage like that really hurts an LBs scoring. That's my biggest worry. That and my running backs are really suspect. But I know that. What the unknown is with those two guys is worse. 
Click to expand...
It's always the unknown. 

 
BoltNlava said:
Didn't see it for all the offence on KC's resume. I expected big things in year 2. Injured or stuffed at the line or poor vision was what I saw. They need to move on is my guess/opinion. I should have just accepted @rockaction 's initial reaction and gone with that lol.
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I received CEH in my “godfather offer” for Mahomes, and after those 2 good games he had last year flipped him for my own 1st. 

As I then decided to completely rebuild it was fortuitous as that pick should (should) be the 1.01

I don’t think you could find a trade partner willing to give up the 2023 1.01 in SF (or redraft) for CEH, so imma count that as a win. 

 
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