DawnBTVS
Footballguy
I've always been curious but what makes a player a sell high case compared to a buy low case? I think there are a handful of options but I'm curious how other owners perceive those options in terms of what matters and what doesn't. I see the term thrown around how Player X is a buy low at this spot but Player Y is a sell high at that spot. How do you come to that conclusion?
1. Statistical Trends: One example would be that Tom Brady starts hot (through Week 8 roughly) and cools down in the second half. So a case could be made that he could be a sell high candidate as the midseason approaches. Other trends may show that a certain player tends to get red hot during the playoff weeks or a mid level RB plays better in the second half as opposed to the first half.
2. Team/Position Situation: A player in the offseason emerges as the likely starter (Arian Foster in Houston) so he sees his value start to shoot up since he'll get the majority of the carries. Another team has a new coach and their star running back is expected to either split carries or be in more of a committee (Clinton Portis in Washington) so their value starts dropping.
3. Average Draft Position: A player is being drafted at a certain round that you (or most people) feel is atypical of what he should produce during the season. A guy like Jabar Gaffney could be seen as WR2 value being drafted in the WR4 area so he becomes a buy low candidate because the value is just too good. The inverse is a player being drafted too high who you feel down on so in the event you happen to land him, you can sell high and get a player you covet more who you feel has greater value.
4. Preseason/1-2 Game Hype: I made a deal when Quentin Griffin was hot in Denver after a start or two for Brett Favre in what I felt was an obvious sell high opportunity (and was right at the time). A player may look awesome in preseason or be named the sudden starter due to injuries in what is normally a committee opportunity and sees their value skyrocket. The smart owner instantly deals him for a more productive, proven player. The flip side to this is that the player dealt could prove to be the real deal or the player being traded back is viewed as a buy low due to being normally great but struggling for a week or two.
For me, most sell high or buy low candidates I tend to view by Options 3 and 4. Either they are a player that becomes over hyped (See maybe Jahvid Best) during the offseason and is being drafted extremely high, so I grab them with the mind of potentially flipping them during the season or their draft position is far too low for what I perceive as their value. There's also the case of stars coming out of the gate slow and owners panicking so they see the "next big thing" go off for a week or two and happily take them, only to see them tank while you nab that slow starter and run away.
1. Statistical Trends: One example would be that Tom Brady starts hot (through Week 8 roughly) and cools down in the second half. So a case could be made that he could be a sell high candidate as the midseason approaches. Other trends may show that a certain player tends to get red hot during the playoff weeks or a mid level RB plays better in the second half as opposed to the first half.
2. Team/Position Situation: A player in the offseason emerges as the likely starter (Arian Foster in Houston) so he sees his value start to shoot up since he'll get the majority of the carries. Another team has a new coach and their star running back is expected to either split carries or be in more of a committee (Clinton Portis in Washington) so their value starts dropping.
3. Average Draft Position: A player is being drafted at a certain round that you (or most people) feel is atypical of what he should produce during the season. A guy like Jabar Gaffney could be seen as WR2 value being drafted in the WR4 area so he becomes a buy low candidate because the value is just too good. The inverse is a player being drafted too high who you feel down on so in the event you happen to land him, you can sell high and get a player you covet more who you feel has greater value.
4. Preseason/1-2 Game Hype: I made a deal when Quentin Griffin was hot in Denver after a start or two for Brett Favre in what I felt was an obvious sell high opportunity (and was right at the time). A player may look awesome in preseason or be named the sudden starter due to injuries in what is normally a committee opportunity and sees their value skyrocket. The smart owner instantly deals him for a more productive, proven player. The flip side to this is that the player dealt could prove to be the real deal or the player being traded back is viewed as a buy low due to being normally great but struggling for a week or two.
For me, most sell high or buy low candidates I tend to view by Options 3 and 4. Either they are a player that becomes over hyped (See maybe Jahvid Best) during the offseason and is being drafted extremely high, so I grab them with the mind of potentially flipping them during the season or their draft position is far too low for what I perceive as their value. There's also the case of stars coming out of the gate slow and owners panicking so they see the "next big thing" go off for a week or two and happily take them, only to see them tank while you nab that slow starter and run away.
