What qualifies as an injury risk? (1 Viewer)

[TheDirtyWord]

Seems to me that alot of FF owners get to apoint where if a player incurred a significant injury in the last 2-3 years, they'll brand that player an injury risk and drop them down/off their board. Fred Taylor is a prime example of a player whose injury history is essentially his Scarlett Letter even though he's missed but 8 games in his last 5 years. I'll bet if you look back at this time last year (or perhaps a little before - say July 2006), one of Portis' attributes was his durability.

This year, Portis is being branded an injury risk even though in his first 4 years of his career, he averaged 15 games played. While he does have tendonitis, his hand isn't an issue anymore which is what knocked him out of the last half of 2006 and his shoulder injury seemed to be on par with what Laurence Maroney experienced. Speaking of Maroney, I've seen him branded an injury risk based on that shoulder even though he played 14 games in 2006 missing two with a completely different injury.

So the question posed is - what constitutes a player with significant injury risk? Because I have to think that there is opportunity to take advantage of 'conventional' wisdom if players are being avoided due to dubious reasoning on this matter.

Thoughts?

 

[The Bad CEO]

What qualifies as an injury risk? Simple, playing in the NFL.

HTH

 

[coolnerd]

For some of the guys injury risk tranlates into,"I had this guy on my team and he was out an important fantasy week with a twisted ankle"

More seriously, I think what should factor is some combination of the ideas

1- The type of previous injury. For the most part clean bone breaks have little long term effects, but things like groins, hamstrings and backs become chronic more often.

2- The number of times injured. While none of McNabbs injuries have beenrelated he is a risk becuase he has failed to complete the last 3 of 4/5 years, or something like that.

3- The ability to play (and do so effectively) through minor injury and pain.

 

[The Jerk]

Interesting post. Players who are considered injury risks present an opportunity for bargain hunters. Until a few years ago, I tended to be very conservative when it came to players with significant injury histories. I did not need to be aggressive as I had an information advantage on most of my competition. For the past five years or so, and becoming more so each season, that information advantage has disappeared for the most part, especially for redraft purposes. So one way to find a different way to have an edge is to recognize players with overblown injury risks. Likely, that is the majority of the players who get that label, for two reasons:

1. Every player can get hurt, as past performance is not indicative of future results.

2. More importantly, even partial seasons of better ppg performance could make a difference in increasingly competitive leagues.

Now, assuming that risk comes at a price. At the very least, perhaps affecting your draft in the later rounds to cover for a position or two at greater risk. However, shooting for a championship requires a different approach than just trying not to embarrass yourself, which usually leads to mediocrity.

 

[Jason Wood]

I'm neurotic in that EVERYONE is an injury risk. Honestly, injuries play such a monstrous role in fantasy outcomes; I just don't know how you can't at least consider it when ranking/drafting. That said, it's very hard to significantly downgrade someone unless you really have good reason to think they'll miss games.

For me, though, if someone hasn't played or practiced for most of camp, and they have a reasonably high ADP, I will let someone else take that risk 9 times out of 10. That may be conservative, but it's served me well over the years.

 

[The Jerk]

I'm neurotic in that EVERYONE is an injury risk. Honestly, injuries play such a monstrous role in fantasy outcomes; I just don't know how you can't at least consider it when ranking/drafting. That said, it's very hard to significantly downgrade someone unless you really have good reason to think they'll miss games. For me, though, if someone hasn't played or practiced for most of camp, and they have a reasonably high ADP, I will let someone else take that risk 9 times out of 10. That may be conservative, but it's served me well over the years.

But didn't you just say in another thread how you have no worries about Gore?Not trying to be too much of a news reporter at a press conference, but:

Personally, no way I pass on Gore if LJ, LJ and SJ are off the board. His hand, from everything I've heard, is an absolute non issue and, because of it, he's managed to stay out of the preseason and will be fresh.