I keep hearing about the chances of another 2000 total yard season being difficult to match. However I am curious if any else think he can exceed last seasons totals. I know he lost Turner but the added depth on the line and the improved O may create more opportunites for Gore to shine especially in the passing game. What is his ceiling?
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What sort of upside does Frank Gore have? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter JAMMIN
- Start date
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
His upside is that he will score more TD's
a_troll00
Footballguy
The season he had last year is his ceiling. Smith will have to have a very solid season to take the pressure off Gore if he is to return to where he was last season.
Brewzers
Footballguy
Right now, I've got him at RB 4 and close to 2000 total yds and 11 TDs. I don't really know what his ceiling is, but I'm guessing we are talking prime production right here.
Is there any way he outproduces SJAX or LJ. He looks damn good especially on the long runs. I would like to see him pound the rock in a few more times to warrant a 3 or 4 selection. I think SA and LJ are going to give you 15+ tds. Yardage wise I also have him hovering around 2000 but his td's I have no idea.
bjlmonster
Footballguy
I also think that his ceiling was last year for the most part. The loss of Norv Turner calling plays will also hurt him.
Brewzers
Footballguy
I think SJax situation is worthy of #2. Gore or LJ, eh, judgement call.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Gore will be taken in the top 5 in 99% of the drafts this year. Players don't get drafted in the top 5 based on upside, but instead based on the expectation of reproducing prior numbers. The decision to take Gore in the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th spot IMO has less to do with upside and more to do with not having full faith in SJax, LJ or Shaun.
The Man with the Plan
Footballguy
Think about it this way. With no defense and no offense, Frank Gore rushed for 1695 yards while averaging 5.4 yards per rush. That's Barry Sanders territory right there. Add to that 61 catches for 485 yards and you have a prototypical stud who is only 24 years old.
The San Francisco 49ers added wide receivers Darrell Jackson and Ashley Lelie this season. Along with tight end Vernon Davis' continued development this should provide a balance on offense that I feel can only help Frank Gore. There a chance that he can have 2000 yards rushing this season if everything breaks right.
It wouldn't shock me if he was the #1 fantasy running back at the end of the 2007 season.
The San Francisco 49ers added wide receivers Darrell Jackson and Ashley Lelie this season. Along with tight end Vernon Davis' continued development this should provide a balance on offense that I feel can only help Frank Gore. There a chance that he can have 2000 yards rushing this season if everything breaks right.
It wouldn't shock me if he was the #1 fantasy running back at the end of the 2007 season.
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5-ish Finkle
Footballguy
Frank Gore has almost nowhere to go but down. Not saying he's going to totally blow, but I don't think he's going to be top 5 either. Everything went perfectly for him a year ago. It would have to go perfectly for him again to duplicate it.
Injury is the only thing that prevents Gore from maintaining or surpassing his production from last year.
SF has had one of the better off-seasons.
They've added a lot of offensive weapons and A Smith should only improve/mature even more this season.
Then add in the very good offensive line SF has AND their NFC West division...
unless he's hurt, Gore will produce.
SF has had one of the better off-seasons.
They've added a lot of offensive weapons and A Smith should only improve/mature even more this season.
Then add in the very good offensive line SF has AND their NFC West division...
unless he's hurt, Gore will produce.
DenverBroncos
Footballguy
He has far more DOWNSIDE than any upside. At the very best, he could be RB5 and at the worst he can be RB15. I think he takes a huge hit this year and finishes at RB12.
Jason Wood
Zoo York
He could quite easily outproduce LJ or Steven Jackson, of course. He could just as easily fall well short of either (or both). Basically with Gore, it's not about what his upside could be, it's about whether he will meet expectations. You're going to have to take him in the top 5, and therefore, there's little margin for error. The good news is backs coming of 2,000-yard seasons remain fantasy studs as long as they stay healthy. The bad news is he's had a spottier injury history than Tomlinson, Jackson and L.J.JAMMIN said:
DenverBroncos
Footballguy
Ha ha, you are now officially invited to join every fantasy league I'm in.
Jason Wood
Zoo York
Why is that so funny? Gore finished 4th last year, it's hardly that big a leap of faith to think he could end up atop the standings. Tomlinson was 1st last year, but it may surprise you to learn that he had never been the top ranked fantasy back before that. He finished 7th, 3rd, 3rd, 3rd, 3rd in the prior five seasons (using FBG scoring).
The Man with the Plan
Footballguy
Playing with one of the worst teams in the league Frank Gore was already a top 4 back last season. Talentwise he's at worst the third best running back in the league. Now with the additions the 49ers have made on offense as well as defense he should benefit greatly if everything works out. I can't guarantee that he'll be the #1 back next season but I don't question his ability to reach that level in the slightest. At worst he's a top-5 running back. Unless he's injured which is a possibility (though not nearly as much as some people make it out to be).
Laugh now, cry later.
FFdork
Footballguy
The Scientist said:
I agree with most of the posters that last year was his upside in terms of yardage. Given the improvements to the offense on paper, I don't expect him to match his 2006 yardage stats, especially for receiving. However, he could very easily score double digit touchdowns if the offense does improve as expected, which would more or less cancel out the dropoff in yardage.So his extreme upside (or ceiling if you prefer) would be a similar year to last year with more touchdowns.
lions327
Footballguy
If LT comes down to human being TD numbers, like 20 or so, then any of the top RB's could conceivably be #1. Gore will likely have one of the highest percentages of RB touches of anyone and if he increases his TD numbers, #1 is not out of the question.
You are being very kind to Gore, Woodrow. Last year was Gore's first full season at 100% effectiveness since high school. SINCE HIGH SCHOOL.Some of this is just plain bad luck, but I suspect that some of it is because Gore goes all out on every play - the kind of player you love because of his determination, but that same determination leaves him open to getting parts of his body stretched in opposite directions and taking big hits while he's straining for extra yards.
Jason Wood
Zoo York
This is true Bloom, but to be fair, I was vicious to Gore on these forums until last year because of his injury history. I just saw no precedent for someone with his history ever being "very good" much less great. So I have to give him his props that he finally lived up to his physical talents and did it on a big stage. I also have to think, perhaps myopically, that the 49ers medical staff has looked at him every which way to Sunday, and view him as no more of a risk than any other player. Otherwise it would be REALLY stupid of the 49ers to have given him the biggest offensive contract in team history.
I would think that the Niners staff determined that none of his injuries are prone to turn into degenerative conditions in their current state, however, I think joints can only be opened up and tinkered with so many times before ugly words like arthritis rears their heads (ask Terrell Davis). On the plus side, since Gore's game is based more on determination than physical gifts, he would be less affected than someone who relied on crisp cuts and breakaway speed if his knees and shoulders do start to break down in the event that he has to have future surgeries. Still, I would be
about building my dynasty team around him.
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Otis
Footballguy
People are quick to forget stunning statistics like those.
The Man with the Plan
Footballguy
I think that Frank Gore's injury history is just that. History. Even so it's not nearly as bad as people make it out to be. He's torn the ACL of both knees but they've been rebuilt. They may be even stronger than they were before. The other stuff (groin, shoulder) are just regular football injuries that happen to pretty much everybody. So if you can live with the fact that he has 2 reconstructed knees then he can't really be seen as a bigger injury risk than most other running backs.
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Just to be clear, Im not saying Gore is more likely to get hurt because he's been injured in the past - although I do think his determined running style does increase his chance of injury. What I am worried about is his ability to bounce back and fully heal from any future injuries because joints can only be operated on so many times before they break down.
Is this really true, medically-speaking? Obviously, diseases of the knee, such as arthritis, can cause the knee to "break down," but does the mere act of having a surgical procedure done on your knee actually do some damage such that repeated surgeries will lead the knee joint to "break down?"It sounds logical to me, but do you have any links or any medical evidence to support this statement?
Just to be clear. I'm not attempting to refute this statement, but it is a nice piece of information to keep in mind.
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I really should leave this to the docs on the board, like Dr. Jene, but I know that repeated injury increases the risk of arthritis, and when my wife had her ACLs replaced last year, the doc said it would increase the chances of early arthritis. Surgery is an injury to the joint, it's just an intentional injury - so yes i do believe the surgery adds to the overall trauma the joint has suffered, but I am a complete layman (even worse, a lawyer), and we have doctors on the board, so dont listen to my hot air.
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DenverBroncos
Footballguy
FRANK GORE HAS ZERO UPSIDE!!! He will not average 5.4 yards per carry and he will not catch 60+ balls next year. I think he will regress to the norm and average 4.0 yards per carry which will drop him from 1600+ yards to about 1200+.
kensat30
Footballguy
As a Niner's fan, I don't think it's really possible for Gore to get much more than 10 or so TDs in 2007. Despite what Gore was able to do last season, there really isn't much scoring opportunity in SF right now with the current state of the passing game. As studly as Gore was last season, he only managed to score 9 TDs on almost 400 touches. And I can tell you, most of those yards came between the 20s, and probably the majority was on our side of the field!
Alex Smith did a lot better than 2005 when he was a rookie, but our passing offense is still poor. And all our new acquistions are just that: new. Jackson and Lelie both haven't been practicing, and we lost our #1 performer from last year in Bryant. Jason Hill is not going to come in and make a huge impact, especially when you consider that he is probably not in line to be even the 3rd WR right now. Even if Vernon Davis does breakout and become that stud TE, Gore will probably losing catches as a result. Bottomline, Gore doesn't have the bigtime upside of say a Shaun Alexander or even Rudi Johnson in the TD department.
And it's not crazy to project less performance in the yardage department as well. It should be expected. I personally don't think Gore is worth a very early pick when you combine his lack of a big upside versus the risk associated with both losing Norv Turner and playing on a poor passing offense. Some people have him as high as #2 overall, but I think he is a much more appropriate late first round pick when you consider the risks involved.
Alex Smith did a lot better than 2005 when he was a rookie, but our passing offense is still poor. And all our new acquistions are just that: new. Jackson and Lelie both haven't been practicing, and we lost our #1 performer from last year in Bryant. Jason Hill is not going to come in and make a huge impact, especially when you consider that he is probably not in line to be even the 3rd WR right now. Even if Vernon Davis does breakout and become that stud TE, Gore will probably losing catches as a result. Bottomline, Gore doesn't have the bigtime upside of say a Shaun Alexander or even Rudi Johnson in the TD department.
And it's not crazy to project less performance in the yardage department as well. It should be expected. I personally don't think Gore is worth a very early pick when you combine his lack of a big upside versus the risk associated with both losing Norv Turner and playing on a poor passing offense. Some people have him as high as #2 overall, but I think he is a much more appropriate late first round pick when you consider the risks involved.
AnonymousBob
Footballguy
Link to the future?
dgreen
Footballguy
His career average is 5.2.Including college, he's never been below 4.8 in a season.How is 4.0 the norm? I'm not saying he'll be at 5+ again, but I'd have a hard time justifying anything below 4.5 right now.
Hell of a post, you nailed it IMO
FFdork
Footballguy
Everything you're saying could be true, but it seems like there are two basic scenarios: 1. The offense improves, Gore gets less touches but more scoring opportunities. 2. The offense doesn't improve much and they have to lean on Gore like last year.Now neither one of those scenarios guarantees that 1. he will score more touchdowns or 2. he will have similar yardage totals to last year. However, I think if you think he's an appropriate pick "late in the first round," it basically means you're passing on him b/c it will be a rare draft that he will be available later than 4-6. Yes, there is some risk involved, but right now I have him as the #4 on my board (although I'd rather not have a middle pick in the draft because I just don't like the value you get there in the first round), although I'd much rather get him in the 5th round like I did last year
.
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
You don't think he can score more TD's? I would take him 1.2 this year....and plan to if I have that pick.
DenverBroncos
Footballguy
Good luck with that buddy! Enjoy taking a RB who will be RB10 or worse this year as the SJax owner laughs in your face and you become the biggest fool on the fantasy football planet for not taking SJax. By the way, how do you justify taking Gore over SJax?
The Man with the Plan
Footballguy
Then there's scenario 3 in which the offense (along with the defense) improves so it stays on the field longer so Frank Gore gets more touches meaning more yards and more scoring opportunities leading to more touchdowns. That's the absolute best case scenario and the one in which I believe he can cause him to become the #1 running back. I'll admit that's asking a lot so if the team still sucks I'll settle for his 2100+yards and 9 touchdowns.Frank Gore has as much talent as either of those big three running backs (LT, LJ, SJax). The only thing that kept him from reaching their level was opportunity and team ineptitude. He only had 373 touches to Tomlinson's 414 Johnson's 457 and 436 for Steven Jackson. I'll reiterate what I said before. He put up stud numbers with a bad team with limited touches. I shudder to think what he could accomplish if the 49ers became a mediocre team let alone a good team.
derek19
Footballguy
Any RB can get injuried in the NFL. I think some ppl tend to forget that...
PahtyTom
Footballguy
I'm not a SF fan, but I watched every SF game last year and Gore could have had at least twice as many TDs if he didn't fumble at the goal and subsequently lose that job for a while. If he's effective at the GL like he seemed to be at the end of last year, and he even just replicates last year's performance or comes reasonably close, then 10 TDs seems like an extremely low ceiling to me.
kensat30
Footballguy
Scenario #1 - Less touches can't be considered a very good thing IMO. If you are drafting top5 you want and need those touches just to meet expectations. What I noticed from Norv Turner/Alex Smith last year was a lot of rolling out and broken plays where the ball ultimately ended up in Gore's hands. If the offense improves in moving the ball into the hands of Davis at TE and Jackson and other WRS, the offense could stay at a similar production level AND Gore would see less touches. The impression I got from Norv Turner's offense was RB as a safety valve. And the impression I got from Alex Smith was that he wanted to throw it downfield more often, but due to WRs not breaking coverage and the blocking breaking down he was unable. Who knows what our new O-Coord is gonna do with Norv's system? Maybe Gore stays in to block on more plays. Does not seem like a stretch for me at all. Changes in situation are much more of a negative in a first round RB versus a fifth round RB.Scenario#2 If the offense doesnlt improve, I would find it somewhat miraculous if Gore repeated his performance last year. The guy is a beast and he runs like one, but no one can keep that kind of pace year after year and especially a RB on a bad offensive team. If you want evidence just look at Tomlinson. The only thing that stays consistent for him year to year is his ever increasing TD numbers. And Frank Gore has yet to demonstrate his capability in that regard. The guy lost his goalline job last year to both fumbling and ineffectiveness. I remeber watching more than one time Frank Gore get back to back carries within 2 yards of paydirt and get flat out denied or forced to fumble.The guy is a terrific Rb, but he does have his flaws and the Niner's still have a ways to go.
