What the heck is going on? (1 Viewer)

[Juicecore]

I repeat. WHAT THE HECK IS GOING ON?

I know its only been two weeks, but has the season ever started like this before? Usually the passing offenses take time to get into sync whereas the running backs just hit the field for business as usual. This year, in most scoring systems, There are 6 WRS and a TE before we see but ONE RB! (Chad Johnson, Steve Smith, Moss, Andre Johnson, Plaxico Burress, Terrell Owens, Antonio Gates). Then comes RB1 - Edgerin James! (which is weird enough but thats topic for another thread).

So this begs the question. Is this a fluke or a trend? Have teams realized that it pays to pass a lot down the field because the rules favor the offense? I mean, if you sneeze on a receiver past five yards its a penalty. Might as well chuck it downfield as often as possible. I know the rules haven't changed from last year, but perhaps it took a year of that rule emphasis on the 5 yard chuck for teams to realize they really should start passing more?

Or maybe its just a fluke. I don't know. I guess we'll know a lot more after week 3.

At this point in time, who has more value in standard scoring systems - a guy like Steve Smith, or a guy like Steven jackson? Chad Johnson or say - Joseph Addai?

THoughts?

 

[Foosball God]

Throwing is the new running.

 

[EBF]

I know its only been two weeks

 

[Don Quixote]

I think it will even out. RB's sitting out the preseason (and still getting into the groove) so as not to get worn down by the end of the season will soon be facing worn out defenses.

 

[Juicecore]

Sure, its easy to say its just been two weeks but I think its too much of a co-incidence. I mean if it was like a couple WRs having good weeks. Or 3 or 4.... But its 6 and a TE ahead of the first rb. I'm very curious to see how the numbers look after this week.

And again, I ask you. If you're sitting on Chad Johnson or Steve Smith right now, what RB would u trade them straight up for? How about Steven Jackson. Rudi Johnson? Joseph Addai? Under normal circumstances I would jump on any of those guys for a WR, but so far this year they're killing any RB.

 

[analog_hiss]

When it happens once, it call an anomoly or occurance. When it happens twice, it is a repeated occurance. When it happens three times, its a trend.

We are only entering week 3.

 

[Ever Present Lurker]

When it happens once, it call an anomoly or occurance. When it happens twice, it is a repeated occurance. When it happens three times, its a trend.We are only entering week 3.

Actually, it's: once is an accident, twice is a trend, three times is a problem.

 

[EBF]

Sure, its easy to say its just been two weeks but I think its too much of a co-incidence. I mean if it was like a couple WRs having good weeks. Or 3 or 4.... But its 6 and a TE ahead of the first rb. I'm very curious to see how the numbers look after this week.And again, I ask you. If you're sitting on Chad Johnson or Steve Smith right now, what RB would u trade them straight up for? How about Steven Jackson. Rudi Johnson? Joseph Addai? Under normal circumstances I would jump on any of those guys for a WR, but so far this year they're killing any RB.

Steve Smith and Chad Johnson aren't going to keep this up all season. It's only a matter of time until they have some 3 catches for 24 yards weeks. I know that might sound a little crazy given their recent success, but WR production tends to be a little bit streaky. Even the best players are going to have some dud weeks. My guess is that guys like Burress, CJ, Moss, and Smith will slow down a bit and regress towards production levels that resemble their career averages. I also think it's pretty likely that guys like Jackson, Tomlinson, and Gore will put up some monster games over the next few weeks. So I really don't think there's any great revolution that's going to lead to WRs dominating FF. I just think it's been a down year for RBs so far for a variety of reasons. One thing I notice about the RBs in the NFL right now is that most of the best ones are either: getting old (Edge, Alexander, Ahman), playing on a terrible offense (Peterson, Portis, Gore, LJ, Lynch, Cadillac), or splitting carries (MJD, McAllister, Bush). Only a handful of guys present the ideal combination of top talent on a top offense. For whatever reason, a couple of those guys (Tomlinson, Jackson) have gotten off to slow starts.

 

[CalBear]

Since 2000, only one WR has scored over 250 fantasy points. (Randy Moss in 2003 scored 267--1650 yards and 17 TDs, one of the great WR seasons of all time). 250 fantasy points would have been behind 6 RBs last year, and would have cracked the top 5 only once since 2000.

It's just a small sample size. I wouldn't bet on any one WR scoring that many points this year, and I would certainly bet on at least 5 RBs finishing up with 250+ points.

 

[Jeff Tefertiller]

things might change when the weather turns colder

 

[CalBear]

The biggest outlier year in WR scoring was 1995. Rice led the way with over 1850 total yards and 16 total TDs, but WR scoring was all inflated that year. 11 WRs had double-digit TDs (in 2006 we had 5), and 7 had 13+ TDs (in 2006 we had none). The #10 WR was Anthony Miller, who had 1084 yards and 14 TDs; in 2006 that would have made him the #3 WR.

Still, Emmitt Smith outscored Rice by 80 points that year, and Martin and Sanders outscored everyone except Rice.

 

[SteelerMurf]

It will all even out unless you think CJ, TO, SSmith, Plex, and the likes are gonna score 30 TDs this season

 

[-Crippler-]

Happens every year. WR are volatile, RB are consistant. Every year, a few WRs jump out in front because their outlier come in the first few weeks. In 4 weeks it will be back to the norm.

 

[CalBear]

Happens every year. WR are volatile, RB are consistant. Every year, a few WRs jump out in front because their outlier come in the first few weeks. In 4 weeks it will be back to the norm.

Note: WRs aren't any more volatile than RBs. They just score fewer points.

 

[painkiller]

Happens every year. WR are volatile, RB are consistant. Every year, a few WRs jump out in front because their outlier come in the first few weeks. In 4 weeks it will be back to the norm.

It does happen every year. Maybe a little more so this year with LT having a "slow" start and LJ and the Chiefs struggling. It will all get to what you expect in a few weeks. Now is the time to trade for those underperforming RBs who might have owners that are panicked.