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What to make of Adrian Peterson thus far? (1 Viewer)

DeaLerZ

Footballguy
Is he worth taking a gamble on in the 2nd round? Do you think he will hold up?

Adrian Peterson takes hits during Vikings practice

By Gregg Rosenthal

Around The League editor

Adrian Peterson takes hits during Vikings practiceBy Gregg Rosenthal

Around The League editor

Published: Aug. 28, 2012 at 08:11 a.m. Updated: Aug. 28, 2012 at 08:31 a.m. Print Friend(s) Email Your Email Send Email By Gregg Rosenthal Packers' Finley facing challenge from Williams for top TE job?Peterson takes hits at practice as Vikings ditch no-contact ruleMore Columns >

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It wasn't so long ago that the Minnesota Vikings had a rule in practices: If you touch Adrian Peterson, you get cut from the team. With Peterson nearing a full recovery from his anterior cruciate ligament surgery, that rule has been junked.

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Peterson was hit at practice for the first time on Monday. At least teammates could hit his upper body.

"There were times there was nowhere to go and he had to run into people, and he responded well," coach Leslier Frazier said, via the St. Paul Pioneer Press. "That was good to see. There were some good, hard hits. Nothing to the ground, just guys thudding him."

Peterson hasn't experienced any swelling in his knee after practices. It sure seems like he's on track to have a role in the season opener. The team has been very careful with his reps, and want to see how he responds to a full week of practice with contact. Peterson was raring to go.

"(Peterson) told (running backs coach) James Saxon, 'You tell coach to tell those defensive players to buckle up,' " Frazier said. "I knew it would get him fired up."
 
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I think he's worth picking in the 2nd if you grabbed Foster, Rice or McCoy in the 1st. He should be basically worthless for the beginning of the season because they should be limiting his carries, but once he's at full strength, he could carry you through the playoffs if combined with another stud RB.

 
Is he worth taking a gamble on in the 2nd round? Do you think he will hold up?
No. I see nothing but downside here. There's virtually no hope at all he'll produce top 5 type numbers for you, since even if his rehab went greatest-rehab-in-human-history well, the Vikes will still coddle him for a year. With capable guys in Gerhart and Harvin to share the running load, it would be insane for them to give Peterson huge numbers of touches. Without those, there are plenty of guys available in the same area of the draft that DO give you the chance to radically outscore their draft position.People are reaching for ADP early because they're thinking, "well, if he can just surprise us and be the ADP of old, then..."Stop thinking like that. You can't possibly get old ADP, because this guy isn't going to sniff old ADP's touches. Add to that the very real chance he's not 100% only 8 months out from destroying his knee, and I don't see the value.
 
He will be on none of my teams this year at his current adp. I don't care if he blows up and is the #1 fantasy player in all the land and I miss the boat. I don't draft rbs 8months removed from an acl tear in the 2nd rd. too risky and too low of a ceiling IMO to justify it. I'd take a chance on him in the 5th rd and beyond which is why he won't be on any of my teams bc some other kook is always drafting him in the 2nd

 
Is he worth taking a gamble on in the 2nd round? Do you think he will hold up?
No. I see nothing but downside here. There's virtually no hope at all he'll produce top 5 type numbers for you, since even if his rehab went greatest-rehab-in-human-history well, the Vikes will still coddle him for a year. With capable guys in Gerhart and Harvin to share the running load, it would be insane for them to give Peterson huge numbers of touches. Without those, there are plenty of guys available in the same area of the draft that DO give you the chance to radically outscore their draft position.People are reaching for ADP early because they're thinking, "well, if he can just surprise us and be the ADP of old, then..."Stop thinking like that. You can't possibly get old ADP, because this guy isn't going to sniff old ADP's touches. Add to that the very real chance he's not 100% only 8 months out from destroying his knee, and I don't see the value.
Post of the week. :thumbup:
 
Is he worth taking a gamble on in the 2nd round? Do you think he will hold up?
No. I see nothing but downside here. There's virtually no hope at all he'll produce top 5 type numbers for you, since even if his rehab went greatest-rehab-in-human-history well, the Vikes will still coddle him for a year. With capable guys in Gerhart and Harvin to share the running load, it would be insane for them to give Peterson huge numbers of touches. Without those, there are plenty of guys available in the same area of the draft that DO give you the chance to radically outscore their draft position.People are reaching for ADP early because they're thinking, "well, if he can just surprise us and be the ADP of old, then..."Stop thinking like that. You can't possibly get old ADP, because this guy isn't going to sniff old ADP's touches. Add to that the very real chance he's not 100% only 8 months out from destroying his knee, and I don't see the value.
Post of the week. :thumbup:
:thumbup:
 
Is he worth taking a gamble on in the 2nd round? Do you think he will hold up?
No. I see nothing but downside here. There's virtually no hope at all he'll produce top 5 type numbers for you, since even if his rehab went greatest-rehab-in-human-history well, the Vikes will still coddle him for a year. With capable guys in Gerhart and Harvin to share the running load, it would be insane for them to give Peterson huge numbers of touches. Without those, there are plenty of guys available in the same area of the draft that DO give you the chance to radically outscore their draft position.People are reaching for ADP early because they're thinking, "well, if he can just surprise us and be the ADP of old, then..."Stop thinking like that. You can't possibly get old ADP, because this guy isn't going to sniff old ADP's touches. Add to that the very real chance he's not 100% only 8 months out from destroying his knee, and I don't see the value.
Post of the week. :thumbup:
:thumbup:
Agree with that. Summed up well. When you think about it from your rational side, its hard to go after Peterson. There is no reason for the real life vikes to push him and if ou ahve anything like a knee gets a little swollen on a Monday morning, then that's your life for the rest of the year....touch and go every game.
 
Is he worth taking a gamble on in the 2nd round? Do you think he will hold up?
No. I see nothing but downside here. There's virtually no hope at all he'll produce top 5 type numbers for you, since even if his rehab went greatest-rehab-in-human-history well, the Vikes will still coddle him for a year. With capable guys in Gerhart and Harvin to share the running load, it would be insane for them to give Peterson huge numbers of touches. Without those, there are plenty of guys available in the same area of the draft that DO give you the chance to radically outscore their draft position.People are reaching for ADP early because they're thinking, "well, if he can just surprise us and be the ADP of old, then..."Stop thinking like that. You can't possibly get old ADP, because this guy isn't going to sniff old ADP's touches. Add to that the very real chance he's not 100% only 8 months out from destroying his knee, and I don't see the value.
Post of the week. :thumbup:
:thumbup:
Agree with that. Summed up well. When you think about it from your rational side, its hard to go after Peterson. There is no reason for the real life vikes to push him and if ou ahve anything like a knee gets a little swollen on a Monday morning, then that's your life for the rest of the year....touch and go every game.
Other than Peterson wants to play and is a freak of nature. No one will keep the franchise player from playing, not even ownership.ETA: Oh, and rehab is a lot different then it used to be and a doctor gave him clearence to play. So someone with more knowledge of the human body then all of you have gave him the OK. Just like Charles and Forte, he will be ready when his number is called.
 
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Is he worth taking a gamble on in the 2nd round? Do you think he will hold up?
No. I see nothing but downside here. There's virtually no hope at all he'll produce top 5 type numbers for you, since even if his rehab went greatest-rehab-in-human-history well, the Vikes will still coddle him for a year. With capable guys in Gerhart and Harvin to share the running load, it would be insane for them to give Peterson huge numbers of touches. Without those, there are plenty of guys available in the same area of the draft that DO give you the chance to radically outscore their draft position.People are reaching for ADP early because they're thinking, "well, if he can just surprise us and be the ADP of old, then..."Stop thinking like that. You can't possibly get old ADP, because this guy isn't going to sniff old ADP's touches. Add to that the very real chance he's not 100% only 8 months out from destroying his knee, and I don't see the value.
Post of the week. :thumbup:
Agreed. People see the name and think oh wow I can get Adrian Peterson in the 2nd round, what great value. But that's really not a well thought out decision IMO. It's based more on the emotion of grabbing a guy who, if not for the knee injury, would be the #1 player on many draft boards.But the knee injury is there. The guy completely tore the ACL AND MCL late in the season. His ACL was replaced with his petellar tendon. I am impressed with how fast his recover has gone but he's still human. I cant help but think about how quickly Jerry Rice was recovering and what happened to him.Doesnt mean that the same thing will happen with Peterson but the odds are not in his favor. Overwhelmingly so. And the real caution flag is there is just no way he gets the number of touches he typically gets as Zeff points out.It's a high risk gamble without the potential for a high return IMO. Just a bad proposition. Let someone else pay the name price for ADP this year. I'll see what happens and think that next year is when he could become a good value.
 
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I'm a little bullish on AP's ability to bounce back, but even I think taking him in the 2nd is a risk you don't have to take. Even if AP survives the season without harm he's just not going to put up the stats he did pre-injury. Not in 2012 anyway. Why take the gamble on the higher injury risk when you can just as easily draft a healthy #1 player in the same spot who can put up stats just as good or even better?

Bottom line is that, unless he suffers a setback, the time to grab AP at a discount has long passed.

 
Is he worth taking a gamble on in the 2nd round? Do you think he will hold up?
No. I see nothing but downside here. There's virtually no hope at all he'll produce top 5 type numbers for you, since even if his rehab went greatest-rehab-in-human-history well, the Vikes will still coddle him for a year. With capable guys in Gerhart and Harvin to share the running load, it would be insane for them to give Peterson huge numbers of touches. Without those, there are plenty of guys available in the same area of the draft that DO give you the chance to radically outscore their draft position.People are reaching for ADP early because they're thinking, "well, if he can just surprise us and be the ADP of old, then..."

Stop thinking like that. You can't possibly get old ADP, because this guy isn't going to sniff old ADP's touches. Add to that the very real chance he's not 100% only 8 months out from destroying his knee, and I don't see the value.
Post of the week. :thumbup:
Agreed. People see the name and think oh wow I can get Adrian Peterson in the 2nd round, what great value. But that's really not a well thought out decision IMO. It's based more on the emotion of grabbing a guy who, if not for the knee injury, would be the #1 player on many draft boards.

But the knee injury is there. The guy completely tore the ACL AND MCL late in the season. His ACL was replaced with his petellar tendon. I am impressed with how fast his recover has gone but he's still human. I cant help but think about how quickly Jerry Rice was recovering and what happened to him.

Doesnt mean that the same thing will happen with Peterson but the odds are not in his favor. Overwhelmingly so. And the real caution flag is there is just no way he gets the number of touches he typically gets as Zeff points out.

It's a high risk gamble without the potential for a high return IMO. Just a bad proposition. Let someone else pay the name price for ADP this year. I'll see what happens and think that next year is when he could become a good value.
I agree with most of this... However, i do think Adrian Peterson is physically gifted, and if there is one guy who can come into the league after an ACL surgery and have a big impact at his position... it's him...

I have seen a lot of people drafting him at the beginning of the 2nd round... so apparently a lot of people are gambling on the risk

I agree he has the potential to be hit or miss this year... but I personally wouldn't rule him out.. he could also be a great RB to have in the ff playoffs even if he doesn't do that great during the regular season... pairing him up with a lot of depth at RB (guys like C.Benson, P.Hillis, D.Martin, S.Ridley can be great fillers until Peterson gets back up to par, and can be had in the mid rounds and potentially put up strong #2 RB numbers, and even borderline #1 numbers given the right circumstances) can give you a potential top 5 RB in the playoffs, which is especially valuable as we get later in the year and there is more of a "chance" that one of your other starters gets hurt at that point...

Obviously, the 2nd round is not the ideal spot for him... but if you can draft a lot of depth behind him I think it could be worth the risk because of his potential to be 100% around playoff time, and potentially give you top 5 rb numbers

and of course there is the outside chance that he performs well all year long

 
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Is he worth taking a gamble on in the 2nd round? Do you think he will hold up?
No. I see nothing but downside here. There's virtually no hope at all he'll produce top 5 type numbers for you, since even if his rehab went greatest-rehab-in-human-history well, the Vikes will still coddle him for a year. With capable guys in Gerhart and Harvin to share the running load, it would be insane for them to give Peterson huge numbers of touches. Without those, there are plenty of guys available in the same area of the draft that DO give you the chance to radically outscore their draft position.People are reaching for ADP early because they're thinking, "well, if he can just surprise us and be the ADP of old, then..."

Stop thinking like that. You can't possibly get old ADP, because this guy isn't going to sniff old ADP's touches. Add to that the very real chance he's not 100% only 8 months out from destroying his knee, and I don't see the value.
Post of the week. :thumbup:
Agreed. People see the name and think oh wow I can get Adrian Peterson in the 2nd round, what great value. But that's really not a well thought out decision IMO. It's based more on the emotion of grabbing a guy who, if not for the knee injury, would be the #1 player on many draft boards.

But the knee injury is there. The guy completely tore the ACL AND MCL late in the season. His ACL was replaced with his petellar tendon. I am impressed with how fast his recover has gone but he's still human. I cant help but think about how quickly Jerry Rice was recovering and what happened to him.

Doesnt mean that the same thing will happen with Peterson but the odds are not in his favor. Overwhelmingly so. And the real caution flag is there is just no way he gets the number of touches he typically gets as Zeff points out.

It's a high risk gamble without the potential for a high return IMO. Just a bad proposition. Let someone else pay the name price for ADP this year. I'll see what happens and think that next year is when he could become a good value.
I agree with most of this... However, i do think Adrian Peterson is physically gifted, and if there is one guy who can come into the league after an ACL surgery and have a big impact at his position... it's him...

I have seen a lot of people drafting him at the beginning of the 2nd round... so apparently a lot of people are gambling on the risk

I agree he has the potential to be hit or miss this year... but I personally wouldn't rule him out.. he could also be a great RB to have in the ff playoffs even if he doesn't do that great during the regular season... pairing him up with a lot of depth at RB (guys like C.Benson, P.Hillis, D.Martin, S.Ridley can be great fillers until Peterson gets back up to par, and can be had in the mid rounds and potentially put up strong #2 RB numbers, and even borderline #1 numbers given the right circumstances) can give you a potential top 5 RB in the playoffs, which is especially valuable as we get later in the year and there is more of a "chance" that one of your other starters gets hurt at that point...

Obviously, the 2nd round is not the ideal spot for him... but if you can draft a lot of depth behind him I think it could be worth the risk because of his potential to be 100% around playoff time, and potentially give you top 5 rb numbers

and of course there is the outside chance that he performs well all year long
Valid points. I think he's very tempting for the reasons you stated above.Personally, I just can't do it in the 2nd round.

 
I cannot believe people are drafting him in the 2 nd round in. Fbgpc leagues.....the regular season is so short in those leagues......why would you jeopardize your team?

 
'gethugefast1 said:
Is the point that he looks buff in a tanktop while performing rehab exercises in a gym? Yippee. He tore two ligaments in his knee 8 months ago. Use your head.
 
'VaTerp said:
'Warrior said:
'Zeff said:
'DeaLerZ said:
Is he worth taking a gamble on in the 2nd round? Do you think he will hold up?
No. I see nothing but downside here. There's virtually no hope at all he'll produce top 5 type numbers for you, since even if his rehab went greatest-rehab-in-human-history well, the Vikes will still coddle him for a year. With capable guys in Gerhart and Harvin to share the running load, it would be insane for them to give Peterson huge numbers of touches. Without those, there are plenty of guys available in the same area of the draft that DO give you the chance to radically outscore their draft position.People are reaching for ADP early because they're thinking, "well, if he can just surprise us and be the ADP of old, then..."Stop thinking like that. You can't possibly get old ADP, because this guy isn't going to sniff old ADP's touches. Add to that the very real chance he's not 100% only 8 months out from destroying his knee, and I don't see the value.
Post of the week. :thumbup:
Agreed. People see the name and think oh wow I can get Adrian Peterson in the 2nd round, what great value. But that's really not a well thought out decision IMO. It's based more on the emotion of grabbing a guy who, if not for the knee injury, would be the #1 player on many draft boards.But the knee injury is there. The guy completely tore the ACL AND MCL late in the season. His ACL was replaced with his petellar tendon. I am impressed with how fast his recover has gone but he's still human. I cant help but think about how quickly Jerry Rice was recovering and what happened to him.Doesnt mean that the same thing will happen with Peterson but the odds are not in his favor. Overwhelmingly so. And the real caution flag is there is just no way he gets the number of touches he typically gets as Zeff points out.It's a high risk gamble without the potential for a high return IMO. Just a bad proposition. Let someone else pay the name price for ADP this year. I'll see what happens and think that next year is when he could become a good value.
I believe it was Barry's 1993 season when he blew out his knee before missing the final 5 games. The next year in 1994 he put up 1883 yards rushing. I'm not concluding that AP will be as strong as last year but just indicating that there is a chance he can be very productive. And yes i know they have different styles of running.
 
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'VaTerp said:
'Warrior said:
'Zeff said:
'DeaLerZ said:
Is he worth taking a gamble on in the 2nd round? Do you think he will hold up?
No. I see nothing but downside here. There's virtually no hope at all he'll produce top 5 type numbers for you, since even if his rehab went greatest-rehab-in-human-history well, the Vikes will still coddle him for a year. With capable guys in Gerhart and Harvin to share the running load, it would be insane for them to give Peterson huge numbers of touches. Without those, there are plenty of guys available in the same area of the draft that DO give you the chance to radically outscore their draft position.People are reaching for ADP early because they're thinking, "well, if he can just surprise us and be the ADP of old, then..."Stop thinking like that. You can't possibly get old ADP, because this guy isn't going to sniff old ADP's touches. Add to that the very real chance he's not 100% only 8 months out from destroying his knee, and I don't see the value.
Post of the week. :thumbup:
Agreed. People see the name and think oh wow I can get Adrian Peterson in the 2nd round, what great value. But that's really not a well thought out decision IMO. It's based more on the emotion of grabbing a guy who, if not for the knee injury, would be the #1 player on many draft boards.But the knee injury is there. The guy completely tore the ACL AND MCL late in the season. His ACL was replaced with his petellar tendon. I am impressed with how fast his recover has gone but he's still human. I cant help but think about how quickly Jerry Rice was recovering and what happened to him.Doesnt mean that the same thing will happen with Peterson but the odds are not in his favor. Overwhelmingly so. And the real caution flag is there is just no way he gets the number of touches he typically gets as Zeff points out.It's a high risk gamble without the potential for a high return IMO. Just a bad proposition. Let someone else pay the name price for ADP this year. I'll see what happens and think that next year is when he could become a good value.
I believe it was Barry's 1993 season when he blew out his knee before missing the final 5 games. The next year in 1994 he put up 1883 yards rushing. I'm not concluding that AP will be as strong as last year but just indicating that there is a chance he can be very productive. And yes i know they have different styles of running.
Sanders's did not blow out his knee. From what I've been able to gather he had a partial tear and even returned for the playoffs that season and put up 169 yards in a wild card game after missing the last 5 of the reg. season. Pretty remarkable in and of itself.Peterson completely tore two ligaments from my understanding and did "blow out" his knee.I think you're point remains that the possibility of him being "very" productive is there. I just don't see it as very likely.
 
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'VaTerp said:
'Warrior said:
'Zeff said:
'DeaLerZ said:
Is he worth taking a gamble on in the 2nd round? Do you think he will hold up?
No. I see nothing but downside here. There's virtually no hope at all he'll produce top 5 type numbers for you, since even if his rehab went greatest-rehab-in-human-history well, the Vikes will still coddle him for a year. With capable guys in Gerhart and Harvin to share the running load, it would be insane for them to give Peterson huge numbers of touches. Without those, there are plenty of guys available in the same area of the draft that DO give you the chance to radically outscore their draft position.People are reaching for ADP early because they're thinking, "well, if he can just surprise us and be the ADP of old, then..."Stop thinking like that. You can't possibly get old ADP, because this guy isn't going to sniff old ADP's touches. Add to that the very real chance he's not 100% only 8 months out from destroying his knee, and I don't see the value.
Post of the week. :thumbup:
Agreed. People see the name and think oh wow I can get Adrian Peterson in the 2nd round, what great value. But that's really not a well thought out decision IMO. It's based more on the emotion of grabbing a guy who, if not for the knee injury, would be the #1 player on many draft boards.But the knee injury is there. The guy completely tore the ACL AND MCL late in the season. His ACL was replaced with his petellar tendon. I am impressed with how fast his recover has gone but he's still human. I cant help but think about how quickly Jerry Rice was recovering and what happened to him.Doesnt mean that the same thing will happen with Peterson but the odds are not in his favor. Overwhelmingly so. And the real caution flag is there is just no way he gets the number of touches he typically gets as Zeff points out.It's a high risk gamble without the potential for a high return IMO. Just a bad proposition. Let someone else pay the name price for ADP this year. I'll see what happens and think that next year is when he could become a good value.
I believe it was Barry's 1993 season when he blew out his knee before missing the final 5 games. The next year in 1994 he put up 1883 yards rushing. I'm not concluding that AP will be as strong as last year but just indicating that there is a chance he can be very productive. And yes i know they have different styles of running.
Sanders's did not blow out his knee. From what I've been able to gather he had a partial tear and even returned for the playoffs that season and put up 169 yards in a wild card game after missing the last 5 of the reg. season. Pretty remarkable in and of itself.Peterson completely tore two ligaments from my understanding and did "blow out" his knee.I think you're point remains that the possibility of him being "very" productive is there. I just don't see it as very likely.
Thanks for clarifying. I knew something happened but was sure to the extent.
 
'VaTerp said:
'Warrior said:
'Zeff said:
'DeaLerZ said:
Is he worth taking a gamble on in the 2nd round? Do you think he will hold up?
No. I see nothing but downside here. There's virtually no hope at all he'll produce top 5 type numbers for you, since even if his rehab went greatest-rehab-in-human-history well, the Vikes will still coddle him for a year. With capable guys in Gerhart and Harvin to share the running load, it would be insane for them to give Peterson huge numbers of touches. Without those, there are plenty of guys available in the same area of the draft that DO give you the chance to radically outscore their draft position.People are reaching for ADP early because they're thinking, "well, if he can just surprise us and be the ADP of old, then..."Stop thinking like that. You can't possibly get old ADP, because this guy isn't going to sniff old ADP's touches. Add to that the very real chance he's not 100% only 8 months out from destroying his knee, and I don't see the value.
Post of the week. :thumbup:
Agreed. People see the name and think oh wow I can get Adrian Peterson in the 2nd round, what great value. But that's really not a well thought out decision IMO. It's based more on the emotion of grabbing a guy who, if not for the knee injury, would be the #1 player on many draft boards.But the knee injury is there. The guy completely tore the ACL AND MCL late in the season. His ACL was replaced with his petellar tendon. I am impressed with how fast his recover has gone but he's still human. I cant help but think about how quickly Jerry Rice was recovering and what happened to him.Doesnt mean that the same thing will happen with Peterson but the odds are not in his favor. Overwhelmingly so. And the real caution flag is there is just no way he gets the number of touches he typically gets as Zeff points out.It's a high risk gamble without the potential for a high return IMO. Just a bad proposition. Let someone else pay the name price for ADP this year. I'll see what happens and think that next year is when he could become a good value.
I believe it was Barry's 1993 season when he blew out his knee before missing the final 5 games. The next year in 1994 he put up 1883 yards rushing. I'm not concluding that AP will be as strong as last year but just indicating that there is a chance he can be very productive. And yes i know they have different styles of running.
Sanders's did not blow out his knee. From what I've been able to gather he had a partial tear and even returned for the playoffs that season and put up 169 yards in a wild card game after missing the last 5 of the reg. season. Pretty remarkable in and of itself.Peterson completely tore two ligaments from my understanding and did "blow out" his knee.I think you're point remains that the possibility of him being "very" productive is there. I just don't see it as very likely.
Thanks for clarifying. I knew something happened but was sure to the extent.
No problem. I wasnt sure either and still not 100% on the extent of the damage to Sanders' knee after my google research.I am certain though that the severity of his injury was nowhere close to Peterson's.As I mentioned before, I certainly see the allure of drafting Peterson this year. I just don't think it's a good bet based on factors discussed above.
 
'Sweetness_34 said:
I cannot believe people are drafting him in the 2 nd round in. Fbgpc leagues.....the regular season is so short in those leagues......why would you jeopardize your team?
While I completely agree and would never do it myself, I wonder how much of him going in the 2nd has to do with the lack of enthusiasm of the other players going in the 2nd. There really are very few players from pick 9 through 24 that don't have question marks. The RB's are either old, unproven, in a time share or coming off their own injury. The WR's aren't much better than what you can get the next 4 rounds. The top 2 TE's are gone and the top 2 QB's are gone. So they view it as a round to gamble with because in their mind, any pick is a gamble. So you take the one with the highest reward...just thinking out loud here.
 
'Phenix said:
'Shutout said:
'meyerj31 said:
'Warrior said:
'Zeff said:
'DeaLerZ said:
Is he worth taking a gamble on in the 2nd round? Do you think he will hold up?
No. I see nothing but downside here. There's virtually no hope at all he'll produce top 5 type numbers for you, since even if his rehab went greatest-rehab-in-human-history well, the Vikes will still coddle him for a year. With capable guys in Gerhart and Harvin to share the running load, it would be insane for them to give Peterson huge numbers of touches. Without those, there are plenty of guys available in the same area of the draft that DO give you the chance to radically outscore their draft position.People are reaching for ADP early because they're thinking, "well, if he can just surprise us and be the ADP of old, then..."Stop thinking like that. You can't possibly get old ADP, because this guy isn't going to sniff old ADP's touches. Add to that the very real chance he's not 100% only 8 months out from destroying his knee, and I don't see the value.
Post of the week. :thumbup:
:thumbup:
Agree with that. Summed up well. When you think about it from your rational side, its hard to go after Peterson. There is no reason for the real life vikes to push him and if ou ahve anything like a knee gets a little swollen on a Monday morning, then that's your life for the rest of the year....touch and go every game.
Other than Peterson wants to play and is a freak of nature. No one will keep the franchise player from playing, not even ownership.ETA: Oh, and rehab is a lot different then it used to be and a doctor gave him clearence to play. So someone with more knowledge of the human body then all of you have gave him the OK. Just like Charles and Forte, he will be ready when his number is called.
man, your tone sounds a bit like a jilted lover (or an ADP owner with a thin bench). Don't get me wrong, I'm not arguing his ability or toughness (and it doesn't look like anyone else questioned his ability). I might not even put up a fight if you tell me Wednesday is the 15th anniversary of when SKYNET built him. He's phenomenol.But when you look at it realistically, you have a person who came off a BAD injury to a body part that is paramount to a RB. Yes, he got cleared to practice, play, whatever, but, you know what, I've been to a doctor before and told I have eczema only to find out it was poison ivy. Things happen. But the point was if you take him this high, you are pretty much depending on him being very close to what he has always been, yet you take on a LARGE risk because after tearing basically every ligament in your knee, and playing the way he does, its not out of the realm of thinking that he could have some lingering side effects, especially since he hasn't taken contact at all. All it would take is a sold helmet to a knee and, although it may not hurt his knee significantly, I can guarantee you that if it had some swelling or stiffness, its going to be hard for you to get that production you thought you would get out of him because he WILL miss time. Whether its a hald game or a game or two, they would pull him and be cauutious because he's too great (not good, great) of a player for a team to prematurely end his career for nothing. And, the Vikings have a significant investment in him. I'm sure they want him to play as much as possible through at least the guaranteed portion of that contract.
 
He says he will play week one. Vikings have not denied it. Rehab has been well ahead of schedule all the way. I think he plays and scores week one. And no, I did not draft him. Cant compare this to Mendenhall, AP's recovery has bordered on stunning. Not sure he's human.

:coffee:

 
Fbg email update for today seems to indicate they are on board.

Source: NFL.com - Gregg Rosenthal Minnesota Vikings RB Adrian Peterson (knee) was hit at practice for the first time Monday, Aug. 27, at least just his upper body. 'There were times there was nowhere to go and he had to run into people, and he responded well,' head coach Leslie Frazier said. 'That was good to see. There were some good, hard hits. Nothing to the ground, just guys thudding him.' Peterson hasn't experienced swelling in his knee after practices, and it seems likely he'll have a role in Week 1. [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ OUR VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] Peterson is looking more and more like he is going to be good ole Adrian Peterson. Coming back from the knee injury last season Peterson has recovered incredibly quickly. The days of getting him at the end of the 2nd round are over. Draft Peterson in the late 1st or early 2nd round and he'll still outperform his ADP if he can stay healthy.

 
I've only picked ADP in one league. It's skewed towards RBs, I went RB,RB in first two rounds and he was still there at the end of the third. I still don't feel great about it. That's a tough injury to come back from in such a short time.

 
I tore my ACL in my junior year of college (played for a Division II school). Like AP, I played RB. That is where the comparisons end. He is a physical freak on a level that has rarely been seen in pro sports. He might be one of the top 3 athletes in the world right now with LeBron James and Usain Bolt.

But let me tell you something about ACL injuries. It is EXTREMELY difficult to plant your leg with any confidence and make the cuts necessary to compete at a pro level 8-9 months removed. Physically he could be there already, but mentally, every single time you put that leg into the ground, you are thinking, "Will my knee hold up?" Those thoughts don't disappear for at least a year after your surgery.

AP will get back to where he was because he is such an insane athlete. But I must say that you are playing with fire if you draft this guy as your RB1 and spend a high 2nd round pick on him. His ceiling is limited and his floor is lower than a lot of RBs out there. It's conceivable that he could be held to 10-12 carries a game for at least half of the season. I have no skin in this game. It is just my personal opinion.

 
Leslie Frazier and Rick Speilman cant go 3-13 again, they have no incentive to coddle AP for 2014 and beyond.

 
I tore my ACL in my junior year of college (played for a Division II school). Like AP, I played RB. That is where the comparisons end. He is a physical freak on a level that has rarely been seen in pro sports. He might be one of the top 3 athletes in the world right now with LeBron James and Usain Bolt.

But let me tell you something about ACL injuries. It is EXTREMELY difficult to plant your leg with any confidence and make the cuts necessary to compete at a pro level 8-9 months removed. Physically he could be there already, but mentally, every single time you put that leg into the ground, you are thinking, "Will my knee hold up?" Those thoughts don't disappear for at least a year after your surgery.

AP will get back to where he was because he is such an insane athlete. But I must say that you are playing with fire if you draft this guy as your RB1 and spend a high 2nd round pick on him. His ceiling is limited and his floor is lower than a lot of RBs out there. It's conceivable that he could be held to 10-12 carries a game for at least half of the season. I have no skin in this game. It is just my personal opinion.
I'll take that & 75% the 2nd half & playoffs... :thumbup: ...just don't want him to f-up the rest of his career. :thumbdown:

 
Watching the vikings game against houston and the broadcast team is saying AP will play and start week 1.

Fwiw.

 
I tore my ACL in my junior year of college (played for a Division II school). Like AP, I played RB. That is where the comparisons end. He is a physical freak on a level that has rarely been seen in pro sports. He might be one of the top 3 athletes in the world right now with LeBron James and Usain Bolt. But let me tell you something about ACL injuries. It is EXTREMELY difficult to plant your leg with any confidence and make the cuts necessary to compete at a pro level 8-9 months removed. Physically he could be there already, but mentally, every single time you put that leg into the ground, you are thinking, "Will my knee hold up?" Those thoughts don't disappear for at least a year after your surgery. AP will get back to where he was because he is such an insane athlete. But I must say that you are playing with fire if you draft this guy as your RB1 and spend a high 2nd round pick on him. His ceiling is limited and his floor is lower than a lot of RBs out there. It's conceivable that he could be held to 10-12 carries a game for at least half of the season. I have no skin in this game. It is just my personal opinion.
Perhaps AP is both physically and MENTALLY stronger than you.
 
I tore my ACL in my junior year of college (played for a Division II school). Like AP, I played RB. That is where the comparisons end. He is a physical freak on a level that has rarely been seen in pro sports. He might be one of the top 3 athletes in the world right now with LeBron James and Usain Bolt. But let me tell you something about ACL injuries. It is EXTREMELY difficult to plant your leg with any confidence and make the cuts necessary to compete at a pro level 8-9 months removed. Physically he could be there already, but mentally, every single time you put that leg into the ground, you are thinking, "Will my knee hold up?" Those thoughts don't disappear for at least a year after your surgery. AP will get back to where he was because he is such an insane athlete. But I must say that you are playing with fire if you draft this guy as your RB1 and spend a high 2nd round pick on him. His ceiling is limited and his floor is lower than a lot of RBs out there. It's conceivable that he could be held to 10-12 carries a game for at least half of the season. I have no skin in this game. It is just my personal opinion.
Perhaps AP is both physically and MENTALLY stronger than you.
I found it helpful to know what the specific challenges are coming back from that type of injury. He appropriately gave AP his due and said it was his own opinion. Do what you will with the info but no need to dog him for making a contribution based on similar experience.
 
I tore my ACL in my junior year of college (played for a Division II school). Like AP, I played RB. That is where the comparisons end. He is a physical freak on a level that has rarely been seen in pro sports. He might be one of the top 3 athletes in the world right now with LeBron James and Usain Bolt. But let me tell you something about ACL injuries. It is EXTREMELY difficult to plant your leg with any confidence and make the cuts necessary to compete at a pro level 8-9 months removed. Physically he could be there already, but mentally, every single time you put that leg into the ground, you are thinking, "Will my knee hold up?" Those thoughts don't disappear for at least a year after your surgery. AP will get back to where he was because he is such an insane athlete. But I must say that you are playing with fire if you draft this guy as your RB1 and spend a high 2nd round pick on him. His ceiling is limited and his floor is lower than a lot of RBs out there. It's conceivable that he could be held to 10-12 carries a game for at least half of the season. I have no skin in this game. It is just my personal opinion.
Perhaps AP is both physically and MENTALLY stronger than you.
I found it helpful to know what the specific challenges are coming back from that type of injury. He appropriately gave AP his due and said it was his own opinion. Do what you will with the info but no need to dog him for making a contribution based on similar experience.
I really wasn't trying to dog you Mash. And I apologize if it came off that way. I totally understand what he was getting at. Hell, I sprained my ankle bad a couple years ago and hesitate on it every time I play soccer on it. Just feels "loose". Can't imagine tearingy knee in half. I guess I was just trying to bring up the point that Adrian Peterson seems to be a beast/monster/freak of nature with everything he's done since entering the league. IF his knee is 100% healthy, I would hope his mind/instinct is there too.Hell, I'm hoping he gets the "Rookie of the Year" effect and becomes faster because of the injury.No hard feelings mash and apologies if I came off as dogging you. Easy to type fast without thinking on the iPhone and I don't post much so I'm out of practice.
 
ETA: Oh, and rehab is a lot different then it used to be and a doctor gave him clearence to play. So someone with more knowledge of the human body then all of you have gave him the OK. Just like Charles and Forte, he will be ready when his number is called.
Remember also that it's not the doctors job to determine whether he can cut, juke, run as fast or as powerful as he used to...just whether he's healthy enough to step on the football field again
 
FSN: You obviously have experience dealing with knee injuries. Can you put into words what Adrian Peterson's recovery, his attitude and work ethic has been like during this past eight months?

FRAZIER: Off the charts. He's one of those guys … he only had a glimpse, a moment where he was down. That was on the plane ride back from Washington. He was down just for a little bit. But by the time he was ready to have the surgery, he was already seeing himself get back and playing again and being the Adrian of old. That's the way he's attacked his rehab. He's been off the charts in so many ways. He's done things that (head athletic trainer) Eric Sugarman and our medical staff just are in awe of. So it's just a credit to great genes and hard work. He's a special, special guy. 08/29/12

 
Have to admit that Im getting sucked in to all of the hype on ADP's recovery.

Still wouldnt take him in the 1st 2 rounds of a snake and likely won't pay the asking price in my auction this Sunday.

But he has gone from completely off my radar to someone worth looking at. It still just feels way too early but if I was going to bet on a current NFL RB to have an unprecedented return from a devastating knee injury, he would be the one you'd pick.

 
90% Chance he finishes with fewer than 1000 yards rushing.

70% Chance he finishes with fewer than 900 yards rushing

50% Chance he finishes with fewer than 800 yards rushing.

Goal line carries aren't his. Slim chance they risk that with Gerhart on board.... so I see him with single Digit TD's combined.

Overall he's looking at impressive numbers for someone 8 months out from a totally blown out knee.... but a pretty big bust for an early/mid 2nd round pick (I've seen him go in the 1st). You're essentially paying for around 1500 yards and 10 Touchdowns. I think we're looking at RB15ish numbers with a bit more downside than upside.

My .02.

 
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'Phenix said:
What are you referring to here? Peterson doesnt make any cuts in the video and as recently as two weeks ago he was being told NOT to make cuts in practice.Peterson is a beast. I'm impressed at how well and how quickly he has recovered. And I still think he is going to be a disappointment for those drafting him before round 3-4.

 
'[icon] said:
90% Chance he finishes with fewer than 1000 yards rushing. 70% Chance he finishes with fewer than 900 yards rushing50% Chance he finishes with fewer than 800 yards rushing. Goal line carries aren't his. Slim chance they risk that with Gerhart on board.... so I see him with single Digit TD's combined. Overall he's looking at impressive numbers for someone 8 months out from a totally blown out knee.... but a pretty big bust for an early/mid 2nd round pick (I've seen him go in the 1st). You're essentially paying for around 1500 yards and 10 Touchdowns. I think we're looking at RB15ish numbers with a bit more downside than upside. My .02.
70% chance of less than 900 yards rushing? Really? Care to make a wager or are those %'s just inflated and made up?
 
Is he worth taking a gamble on in the 2nd round? Do you think he will hold up?
No. I see nothing but downside here. There's virtually no hope at all he'll produce top 5 type numbers for you, since even if his rehab went greatest-rehab-in-human-history well, the Vikes will still coddle him for a year. With capable guys in Gerhart and Harvin to share the running load, it would be insane for them to give Peterson huge numbers of touches. Without those, there are plenty of guys available in the same area of the draft that DO give you the chance to radically outscore their draft position.People are reaching for ADP early because they're thinking, "well, if he can just surprise us and be the ADP of old, then..."

Stop thinking like that. You can't possibly get old ADP, because this guy isn't going to sniff old ADP's touches. Add to that the very real chance he's not 100% only 8 months out from destroying his knee, and I don't see the value.
The only thing that worries me is the bold. The Vikings should have coddled him last year and not let him play in that last game coming off a minor injury. Now he's in the situation he's in because of that. Hopefully they will limit him because this team won't make the playoffs this year. Now if the young guys improve enough and they add some key players in the offseason they may contend for a playoff spot next year, but for that they will need a healthy ADP.
 
'Sinn Fein said:
Pretty sure the Jaguars won't be limited in where they can hit Adrian Peterson.
Have you seen the Jaguars play? They are pretty limited in where they hit anyone.
Jacksonville was 9th in the NFL last season in total rush defense. They allowed 3.8 yards per carry, which was tied for 4th best. The original point remains. If AP suits up week one the Jaguars aren't going to take it easy on his legs like the Vikings are in practice.
 

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