What was Shanahan thinking? (1 Viewer)

[rascal]

I don't think the defense was being dominated as much as the Shanahan apologists think. The jags were able to run on the defense, but they only put up 326 yards of total offense to Denver's 265 yards.That is not a huge disparity. There was a big difference in rushing yardage (JAC-186 DEN-47), but the apologists act as if Denver defense would not be able to get a stop against the juggernaut Jacksonville offense. It was the Jag's for cripes sake. If you can't get a stop against a mediocre offense at home in the last minutes of the game, you are in worse trouble than I thought.The call can be gutsy and dumb at the same time, they are not mutually exclusive.

Did you watch the game or are you going off stats?BTW, in analyzing the stats you might want to take a look at the TOP.

I watched the game. I saw the TOP as well. Do you have a point?I am guessing you are telling me that Denver D couldn't get a stop against a mediocre offense at home in the fourth quarter.

Yeah...the Broncos D couldn't get off the field.I haven't heard one person who thought they could stop them based on how the game had been going.BTW, it doesn't matter if it was at home in case you haven't seen the Broncos home record lately.

 

[Warehouse Nasty]

So his other option is to punt from the endzone and the opponent gets the ball somewhere between the 45 and the 45.This would around 4:00 left to play. All you need is to get to the Denver 33 yd line to make it a two score game. Or you just pound the ball and run down the clock.

Still you have to play the %'s and give yourself the best chance to win. How come a schmuck like me knows that, and a pro coach doesn't???????

The percentages said that Jacksonville was converting over 2 first downs for every drive. The percentages said that the Denver defense had allowed over 50% 3rd and 4th down conversion rate. The percentages said that Denver had not held Jacksonville to a 3-and-out THE ENTIRE GAME.Explain how putting the Denver defense back on the field was playing the percentages and giving yourself the best chance to win.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Normally I am critical when coaches choose to not go for it on 4th down in favorable situations. I really don't think going for it on 4th and 5 on your own 5 yard line with 4:30 left on the clock is a favorable situation though. If there were only 3:00 left on the clock or they were down two scores then I could see going for it.

 

[rascal]

So his other option is to punt from the endzone and the opponent gets the ball somewhere between the 45 and the 45.This would around 4:00 left to play. All you need is to get to the Denver 33 yd line to make it a two score game. Or you just pound the ball and run down the clock.

Still you have to play the %'s and give yourself the best chance to win. How come a schmuck like me knows that, and a pro coach doesn't???????

The percentages said that Jacksonville was converting over 2 first downs for every drive. The percentages said that the Denver defense had allowed over 50% 3rd and 4th down conversion rate. The percentages said that Denver had not held Jacksonville to a 3-and-out THE ENTIRE GAME.Explain how putting the Denver defense back on the field was playing the percentages and giving yourself the best chance to win.

 

[S.K.A.]

The game I watched had Denver forcing two punts and two fumbles.

On the field nearly the entire day? Is it hyperbole Monday?

You apologists act as if Jacksonville is emphatically superior to the Broncos and Denver was lucky just to avoid a blowout.

4 and 5 on their own 9 yard line with over four minutes left and they go for it. Brilliant.

 

[Warehouse Nasty]

The game I watched had Denver forcing two punts and two fumbles.On the field nearly the entire day? Is it hyperbole Monday?You apologists act as if Jacksonville is emphatically superior to the Broncos and Denver was lucky just to avoid a blowout.4 and 5 on their own 9 yard line with over four minutes left and they go for it. Brilliant.

Denver had zero timeouts left. If they punt the ball and do not hold the Jaguars to a 3-and-out, Jacksonville easily runs out the clock and the game is over. So it comes down to which option was more likelyenver to convert a 4th and 5 or Denver to hold Jacksonville to a 3-and-outGiven the fact that they were 0-for-9 on the latter, why is the former such a bad choice?

 

[SKribbles]

I don't think the defense was being dominated as much as the Shanahan apologists think. The jags were able to run on the defense, but they only put up 326 yards of total offense to Denver's 265 yards.

That is not a huge disparity. There was a big difference in rushing yardage (JAC-186 DEN-47), but the apologists act as if Denver defense would not be able to get a stop against the juggernaut Jacksonville offense. It was the Jag's for cripes sake. If you can't get a stop against a mediocre offense at home in the last minutes of the game, you are in worse trouble than I thought.

The call can be gutsy and dumb at the same time, they are not mutually exclusive.

You think that if Denver kicked the ball away that the Jags were going to be passing? As you pointed out, Jax put up 186 yards on the ground. I'd say that is pretty dominant. 4 yards per carry along with the Denver D being on the field 38:42 = the Jags easily running out the clock.

 

[richn]

So his other option is to punt from the endzone and the opponent gets the ball somewhere between the 45 and the 45.This would around 4:00 left to play. All you need is to get to the Denver 33 yd line to make it a two score game. Or you just pound the ball and run down the clock.

Assuming the Jags get the ball at the Broncos 45 and move it to the Broncos 33 yd line, that would still be a 50 yard fg (not exactlya chip shot). Presumably, the Jags would be playing conservative trying to kill the clock so it wouldn't be far fetched to believe that the Broncos could make a stop and get the ball back with 2 mins to play. You have to trust your defense in this situation regardless of how they've been playing.

Exactly!!

 

[shredhead]

I had Jacksonville, to me it was just the stupidest coaching move I've ever seen.

It wasn't even the stupidest coaching move in the game.

 

[doughboydeluxe]

So his other option is to punt from the endzone and the opponent gets the ball somewhere between the 45 and the 45.This would around 4:00 left to play. All you need is to get to the Denver 33 yd line to make it a two score game. Or you just pound the ball and run down the clock.

Assuming the Jags get the ball at the Broncos 45 and move it to the Broncos 33 yd line, that would still be a 50 yard fg (not exactlya chip shot). Presumably, the Jags would be playing conservative trying to kill the clock so it wouldn't be far fetched to believe that the Broncos could make a stop and get the ball back with 2 mins to play. You have to trust your defense in this situation regardless of how they've been playing.

Exactly!!

If the Jags get the ball at the Denver 45 and move to the Denver 33, they will have a first down and have no need to kick a field goal... they will just run out the clock.

 

[S.K.A.]

The Denver D had forced a fumble the series before. The Denver offense had capped off a three and a half minute drive on their last offensive series.

I think we are all very aware that Denver had wasted their timeouts as has been mentioned multiple times.

Wharehouse Nasty, you forgot to mention the conversion percentage for Denver on fourth downs in your post, not to mention that Denver held Jax to a three and out at the end of the third quarter.

 

[shredhead]

On the field nearly the entire day? Is it hyperbole Monday?

time of possesion: Jax 38:42 Den 21:18. That implies that the defense was on the field all day.

You apologists act as if Jacksonville is emphatically superior to the Broncos and Denver was lucky just to avoid a blowout.

Denver was extremely lucky to not get blown out. And I'm a Bronco fan.

4 and 5 on their own 9 yard line with over four minutes left and they go for it. Brilliant.

The stupid coaching move of going for it on 4th down in the 3rd quarter forced the move in the 4th quarter.

 

[S.K.A.]

On the field nearly the entire day? Is it hyperbole Monday?

time of possesion: Jax 38:42 Den 21:18. That implies that the defense was on the field all day.

You apologists act as if Jacksonville is emphatically superior to the Broncos and Denver was lucky just to avoid a blowout.

Denver was extremely lucky to not get blown out. And I'm a Bronco fan.

4 and 5 on their own 9 yard line with over four minutes left and they go for it. Brilliant.

The stupid coaching move of going for it on 4th down in the 3rd quarter forced the move in the 4th quarter.

I don't understand why think that. Can you explain that to me?

 

[fred_1_15301]

So his other option is to punt from the endzone and the opponent gets the ball somewhere between the 45 and the 45.This would around 4:00 left to play. All you need is to get to the Denver 33 yd line to make it a two score game. Or you just pound the ball and run down the clock.

Assuming the Jags get the ball at the Broncos 45 and move it to the Broncos 33 yd line, that would still be a 50 yard fg (not exactlya chip shot). Presumably, the Jags would be playing conservative trying to kill the clock so it wouldn't be far fetched to believe that the Broncos could make a stop and get the ball back with 2 mins to play. You have to trust your defense in this situation regardless of how they've been playing.

Exactly!!

If the Jags get the ball at the Denver 45 and move to the Denver 33, they will have a first down and have no need to kick a field goal... they will just run out the clock.

You're right. I should have said if the Jags get the ball at the Denver 42. My point is that you trust your defense to make a stop against an offense that you know will likely run the ball 3 times. I don't care if their defense has been shredded all game. This is a different situation and we know they'll be dealing with a conservative Jags offense. Why put the entire game on the line on one play with 4 mins left in the game?

 

[rascal]

On the field nearly the entire day? Is it hyperbole Monday?

time of possesion: Jax 38:42 Den 21:18. That implies that the defense was on the field all day.

You apologists act as if Jacksonville is emphatically superior to the Broncos and Denver was lucky just to avoid a blowout.

Denver was extremely lucky to not get blown out. And I'm a Bronco fan.

4 and 5 on their own 9 yard line with over four minutes left and they go for it. Brilliant.

The stupid coaching move of going for it on 4th down in the 3rd quarter forced the move in the 4th quarter.

 

[doughboydeluxe]

So his other option is to punt from the endzone and the opponent gets the ball somewhere between the 45 and the 45.This would around 4:00 left to play. All you need is to get to the Denver 33 yd line to make it a two score game. Or you just pound the ball and run down the clock.

Assuming the Jags get the ball at the Broncos 45 and move it to the Broncos 33 yd line, that would still be a 50 yard fg (not exactlya chip shot). Presumably, the Jags would be playing conservative trying to kill the clock so it wouldn't be far fetched to believe that the Broncos could make a stop and get the ball back with 2 mins to play. You have to trust your defense in this situation regardless of how they've been playing.

Exactly!!

If the Jags get the ball at the Denver 45 and move to the Denver 33, they will have a first down and have no need to kick a field goal... they will just run out the clock.

You're right. I should have said if the Jags get the ball at the Denver 42. My point is that you trust your defense to make a stop against an offense that you know will likely run the ball 3 times. I don't care if their defense has been shredded all game. This is a different situation and we know they'll be dealing with a conservative Jags offense. Why put the entire game on the line on one play with 4 mins left in the game?

My guess is that Shanahan decided it was worth the gamble to go for it on 4th down in order to save about 2 minutes of game time. If they force Jacksonville to punt, they are starting about in the same place on the field with about 2 minutes less on the game clock.

 

[Warehouse Nasty]

The Denver D had forced a fumble the series before. The Denver offense had capped off a three and a half minute drive on their last offensive series.

I think we are all very aware that Denver had wasted their timeouts as has been mentioned multiple times.

Wharehouse Nasty, you forgot to mention the conversion percentage for Denver on fourth downs in your post, not to mention that Denver held Jax to a three and out at the end of the third quarter.

Denver did NOT hold Jax to a three and out. That was a 4-play drive. At the time Denver went for it on 4th down they were 0-for-1 on 4th downs. And I really don't see how that's relevant.I am not saying that Shanahan made a great move. I'm not sure but I probably would have gone for it as well. I just think it's silly for people to say how stupid that move was given the circumstances. To act like this is not even debatable is ludicrous IMO.

 

[doughboydeluxe]

You're right. I should have said if the Jags get the ball at the Denver 42. My point is that you trust your defense to make a stop against an offense that you know will likely run the ball 3 times. I don't care if their defense has been shredded all game. This is a different situation and we know they'll be dealing with a conservative Jags offense. Why put the entire game on the line on one play with 4 mins left in the game?

I don't think anyone brought this up, but is punting from your own 9 give you the same amount of room as typical punt formation? You probably need about 15 yards. Nevertheless, 15 yards would put the kicker in the endzone... about 6 or 7 yards deep.

If you assume a 42 yard gross punt average, that means the ball is going to be caught on DEN 35. If there's any return, and a net average of about 38 yards are not out of the ordinary, then JAC has the ball on the 30 or 31 yard line.

Maybe I've got my facts wrong, but I don't know how the ball even gets to the DEN 42 yard line. It seems clear that JAC would be in field goal position immediately, which would in turn cost DEN the game.

Punting yardage is tallied from the line of scrimmage. A 40 yard punt lands on the Denver 49.

 

[Ice Cream Man]

You're right. I should have said if the Jags get the ball at the Denver 42. My point is that you trust your defense to make a stop against an offense that you know will likely run the ball 3 times. I don't care if their defense has been shredded all game. This is a different situation and we know they'll be dealing with a conservative Jags offense. Why put the entire game on the line on one play with 4 mins left in the game?

I don't think anyone brought this up, but is punting from your own 9 give you the same amount of room as typical punt formation? You probably need about 15 yards. Nevertheless, 15 yards would put the kicker in the endzone... about 6 or 7 yards deep.

If you assume a 42 yard gross punt average, that means the ball is going to be caught on DEN 35. If there's any return, and a net average of about 38 yards are not out of the ordinary, then JAC has the ball on the 30 or 31 yard line.

Maybe I've got my facts wrong, but I don't know how the ball even gets to the DEN 42 yard line. It seems clear that JAC would be in field goal position immediately, which would in turn cost DEN the game.

Punting yardage is tallied from the line of scrimmage. A 40 yard punt lands on the Denver 49.

Yeah, that didn't seem right.. thanks for clarifying that. I guess not enough sleep last night

 

[S.K.A.]

The Denver D had forced a fumble the series before. The Denver offense had capped off a three and a half minute drive on their last offensive series.

I think we are all very aware that Denver had wasted their timeouts as has been mentioned multiple times.

Wharehouse Nasty, you forgot to mention the conversion percentage for Denver on fourth downs in your post, not to mention that Denver held Jax to a three and out at the end of the third quarter.

Denver did NOT hold Jax to a three and out. That was a 4-play drive. At the time Denver went for it on 4th down they were 0-for-1 on 4th downs. And I really don't see how that's relevant.I am not saying that Shanahan made a great move. I'm not sure but I probably would have gone for it as well. I just think it's silly for people to say how stupid that move was given the circumstances. To act like this is not even debatable is ludicrous IMO.

That was a 4 play drive because of a penalty. Jax did not get a first down on that drive and that is the point, right? That is how it is relevant. Denver had stopped Jacksonville in the third quarter, they never got the chance to do it at the end of the game because of the stupid decision by Shanahan.The move was stupid and not even debatable particularly given the fact Denver couldn't convert on a 4rth and 1 on the Jax 3 yard line. What makes someone think they could get a 4th and 5 if they couldn't get a 4th and 1? Madness.

Denver had given up 0 points in the fourth quarter prior to that decision.

ETA: I obviously think the topic is debatable. I was just being a little antagonistic.

 

[doughboydeluxe]

Regardless of whether you think the decision was right or wrong, I would guess the percentages are relatively equal.

You have to weigh:

Denver converting a 4th and 5, then driving 91 yards in 4:16 with no timeouts

VS.

Denver holding Jacksonville to a punt, then driving most likely 80 yards in about 2 minutes with no timeouts.

I don't think I could fault someone for either decision.

 

[Warehouse Nasty]

The Denver D had forced a fumble the series before. The Denver offense had capped off a three and a half minute drive on their last offensive series.

I think we are all very aware that Denver had wasted their timeouts as has been mentioned multiple times.

Wharehouse Nasty, you forgot to mention the conversion percentage for Denver on fourth downs in your post, not to mention that Denver held Jax to a three and out at the end of the third quarter.

Denver did NOT hold Jax to a three and out. That was a 4-play drive. At the time Denver went for it on 4th down they were 0-for-1 on 4th downs. And I really don't see how that's relevant.I am not saying that Shanahan made a great move. I'm not sure but I probably would have gone for it as well. I just think it's silly for people to say how stupid that move was given the circumstances. To act like this is not even debatable is ludicrous IMO.

That was a 4 play drive because of a penalty. Jax did not get a first down on that drive and that is the point, right? That is how it is relevant. Denver had stopped Jacksonville in the third quarter, they never got the chance to do it at the end of the game because of the stupid decision by Shanahan.The move was stupid and not even debatable particularly given the fact Denver couldn't convert on a 4rth and 1 on the Jax 3 yard line. What makes someone think they could get a 4th and 5 if they couldn't get a 4th and 1? Madness.

Denver had given up 0 points in the fourth quarter prior to that decision.

Wrong, they gained 16 yards and got a 1st down.Lol at your 2nd paragraph. I would call that erroneous logic but I don't think there is anything logical about that comparison. If you don't know the difference between 4th and 1 at an opponents 3 and 4th and 5 in your own territory then I don't think you should be on a football message board.

 

[shredhead]

On the field nearly the entire day? Is it hyperbole Monday?

time of possesion: Jax 38:42 Den 21:18. That implies that the defense was on the field all day.

You apologists act as if Jacksonville is emphatically superior to the Broncos and Denver was lucky just to avoid a blowout.

Denver was extremely lucky to not get blown out. And I'm a Bronco fan.

4 and 5 on their own 9 yard line with over four minutes left and they go for it. Brilliant.

The stupid coaching move of going for it on 4th down in the 3rd quarter forced the move in the 4th quarter.

I don't understand why think that. Can you explain that to me?

Sure, I will make sure to use small words and short sentences. The Bronco were down 20-7 late in the third quarter. Plenty of time left in the game. 4th and 2 on about the 4 yard line they call a QB sneak up the middle for 1 yard. Loss of possesion on downs. It was a bad decision to go for it and a bad decision on the play that was called. If you kick a FG at that spot, you are down by 10. Then in the 4th quarter when they scored the TD it would have been 20-17 instead of 20-14. Then in the 4th quarter you may chose to punt the ball with 4 minutes left on your own 10 due to the fact that a FG will tie the game if you get the ball back. In other words, at the end of the third quarter you take the sure points and keep the game as close as possible instead of gambling that early. There was too much time left in the game to put your team in that position.

 

[S.K.A.]

So it was a bad decision to go for the 4th and 1 on Jax 3 yard line, but a good decision to go for 4th and 5 on Denver 9 yard line with 4:30 left in the game. RIIIIGHT.

I am glad the Bronco fans are happy with Shanahan's shenanigans in this game. I know I am happy with his decision.

 

[S.K.A.]

The Denver D had forced a fumble the series before. The Denver offense had capped off a three and a half minute drive on their last offensive series.

I think we are all very aware that Denver had wasted their timeouts as has been mentioned multiple times.

Wharehouse Nasty, you forgot to mention the conversion percentage for Denver on fourth downs in your post, not to mention that Denver held Jax to a three and out at the end of the third quarter.

Denver did NOT hold Jax to a three and out. That was a 4-play drive. At the time Denver went for it on 4th down they were 0-for-1 on 4th downs. And I really don't see how that's relevant.I am not saying that Shanahan made a great move. I'm not sure but I probably would have gone for it as well. I just think it's silly for people to say how stupid that move was given the circumstances. To act like this is not even debatable is ludicrous IMO.

That was a 4 play drive because of a penalty. Jax did not get a first down on that drive and that is the point, right? That is how it is relevant. Denver had stopped Jacksonville in the third quarter, they never got the chance to do it at the end of the game because of the stupid decision by Shanahan.The move was stupid and not even debatable particularly given the fact Denver couldn't convert on a 4rth and 1 on the Jax 3 yard line. What makes someone think they could get a 4th and 5 if they couldn't get a 4th and 1? Madness.

Denver had given up 0 points in the fourth quarter prior to that decision.

Wrong, they gained 16 yards and got a 1st down.Lol at your 2nd paragraph. I would call that erroneous logic but I don't think there is anything logical about that comparison. If you don't know the difference between 4th and 1 at an opponents 3 and 4th and 5 in your own territory then I don't think you should be on a football message board.

Yet they were incapable of producing a similar result with four minutes left to go in the game?It is a good thing you aren't handing out message board passes. I don't know what I would do. Where else can I learn the difference between 4th and 1 at an opponents 3 and 4th and 5 in your own territory.

Did Denver have any timeouts left?

 

[shredhead]

So it was a bad decision to go for the 4th and 1 on Jax 3 yard line, but a good decision to go for 4th and 5 on Denver 9 yard line with 4:30 left in the game. RIIIIGHT.I am glad the Bronco fans are happy with Shanahan's shenanigans in this game. I know I am happy with his decision.

I never said I was happy with Shanahan for this game. I never said the decision to go for it with 4:30 in the game was a good decision. I said it was a forced decision due to the bad decision in the 3rd quarter.

 

[S.K.A.]

So it was a bad decision to go for the 4th and 1 on Jax 3 yard line, but a good decision to go for 4th and 5 on Denver 9 yard line with 4:30 left in the game. RIIIIGHT.I am glad the Bronco fans are happy with Shanahan's shenanigans in this game. I know I am happy with his decision.

I never said I was happy with Shanahan for this game. I never said the decision to go for it with 4:30 in the game was a good decision. I said it was a forced decision due to the bad decision in the 3rd quarter.

Fair enough. FWIW, I feel that Shanahan undermined his defense after they had stiffened in the fourth quarter. That is what Mondays are all about though, second guessing Sunday's games.

 

[richn]

The Denver D had forced a fumble the series before. The Denver offense had capped off a three and a half minute drive on their last offensive series.

I think we are all very aware that Denver had wasted their timeouts as has been mentioned multiple times.

Wharehouse Nasty, you forgot to mention the conversion percentage for Denver on fourth downs in your post, not to mention that Denver held Jax to a three and out at the end of the third quarter.

Denver did NOT hold Jax to a three and out. That was a 4-play drive. At the time Denver went for it on 4th down they were 0-for-1 on 4th downs. And I really don't see how that's relevant.I am not saying that Shanahan made a great move. I'm not sure but I probably would have gone for it as well. I just think it's silly for people to say how stupid that move was given the circumstances. To act like this is not even debatable is ludicrous IMO.

That was a 4 play drive because of a penalty. Jax did not get a first down on that drive and that is the point, right? That is how it is relevant. Denver had stopped Jacksonville in the third quarter, they never got the chance to do it at the end of the game because of the stupid decision by Shanahan.The move was stupid and not even debatable particularly given the fact Denver couldn't convert on a 4rth and 1 on the Jax 3 yard line. What makes someone think they could get a 4th and 5 if they couldn't get a 4th and 1? Madness.

Denver had given up 0 points in the fourth quarter prior to that decision.

Wrong, they gained 16 yards and got a 1st down.Lol at your 2nd paragraph. I would call that erroneous logic but I don't think there is anything logical about that comparison. If you don't know the difference between 4th and 1 at an opponents 3 and 4th and 5 in your own territory then I don't think you should be on a football message board.

Yet they were incapable of producing a similar result with four minutes left to go in the game?It is a good thing you aren't handing out message board passes. I don't know what I would do. Where else can I learn the difference between 4th and 1 at an opponents 3 and 4th and 5 in your own territory.

Did Denver have any timeouts left?

NO timeouts, the genius used them in the 3rd quarter.

 

[J R]

On the field nearly the entire day? Is it hyperbole Monday?

time of possesion: Jax 38:42 Den 21:18. That implies that the defense was on the field all day.

You apologists act as if Jacksonville is emphatically superior to the Broncos and Denver was lucky just to avoid a blowout.

Denver was extremely lucky to not get blown out. And I'm a Bronco fan.

4 and 5 on their own 9 yard line with over four minutes left and they go for it. Brilliant.

The stupid coaching move of going for it on 4th down in the 3rd quarter forced the move in the 4th quarter.

I don't understand why think that. Can you explain that to me?

Sure, I will make sure to use small words and short sentences. The Bronco were down 20-7 late in the third quarter. Plenty of time left in the game. 4th and 2 on about the 4 yard line they call a QB sneak up the middle for 1 yard. Loss of possesion on downs. It was a bad decision to go for it and a bad decision on the play that was called. If you kick a FG at that spot, you are down by 10. Then in the 4th quarter when they scored the TD it would have been 20-17 instead of 20-14. Then in the 4th quarter you may chose to punt the ball with 4 minutes left on your own 10 due to the fact that a FG will tie the game if you get the ball back. In other words, at the end of the third quarter you take the sure points and keep the game as close as possible instead of gambling that early. There was too much time left in the game to put your team in that position.

I don't think it made a difference in the end. My guess is that Shanahan wasn't worried about whether or not he will have enough time to get a TD when he gets the ball back. He's worried that they won't get a stop and thus won't get the ball back.

 

[JayMan]

Disclaimer: I didn't see the game - thus do not know about the 'feelings' of the game (was the Broncos D exausted? could they hold the Jags 3nOut?)... I'm just putting the results here in a purely mathematical manner - to make sure we talk about the correct 'normal' percentages here in order to see if it was a good move (again, no 'game feeling' here - just historical facts):

From this link ... - by a weighted average of (3:00 and 6:00 left / 5yl and 20yl) we can see that if the probability of picking up the first down exceeds 54% Denver should have gone for it, and otherwise punt...

Thus, the only issue here is: Does the Broncos offense converts a 4th and 6 (and the Jags defense let's the other team offense converts it) on average more than 54% of the time?...

 

[BoltBacker]

It comes down to what you think is more likely - Denver converting a 4th and 5 or Denver not allowing JAX to get a first down around midfield.

Exactly.I don't think Shanny has any confidence in his run defense right now. I asked SSOG if he was worried about their run defense coming into the season and he thought they'd improve. DJ Williams may have the speed to play sideline to sideline like DEN likes but he just isn't a MLB at this point in his career and I'm not sure he ever will be. Their safeties used to be a big force vs the run and they are just too old now to contribute like DEN S's once did.... worse yet they don't have any talent coming up behind them. I'm a little surprised they didn't show any interest in the safety-merry-go-round last summer.I really think the week #5 game(SD@DEN) is going to decide the division. DEN's underperforming defense vs SD's under performing offense. Both teams have bye weeks soon after that game and a chance to steady themselves and whichever team wins that game really springboards itself into a much better situation after the bye.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Denver was down 6 points with 4:30 left in the fourth quarter. He had 4th and 5 from HIS OWN 9. He went for it. THIS GUY GETS PAID BIG $$$ TO COACH FOOTBALL???????? Here is play by play. 1-10-DEN 4 (6:09) (Shotgun) 20-T.Henry up the middle to DEN 7 for 3 yards (97-R.Hayward). 2-7-DEN 7 (5:33) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler sacked at DEN 3 for -4 yards (97-R.Hayward). 3-11-DEN 3 (5:01) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short right to 84-J.Walker to DEN 9 for 6 yards (26-S.Knight). 4-5-DEN 9 (4:19) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass incomplete deep middle to 89-D.Graham (25-R.Nelson). PENALTY on DEN-89-D.Graham, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced between downs. I had Jacksonville, to me it was just the stupidest coaching move I've ever seen.

Did you watch the game?Denver had zero time outs left, and their defense had been getting owned all game. I doubt Denver ever would have got the ball back or with enough time to do anything.Every fan I've talked too thought it was the right move. They would have completed the first down, but Graham dropped the ball on his way down.

That's pretty much how I saw it too. He was betting his offense might not see the ball again. I'm guessing of all the people on the planet able to judge his defense's chances, he's pretty high up on the list of people that know. J

 

[Aaronstory]

Denver was down 6 points with 4:30 left in the fourth quarter. He had 4th and 5 from HIS OWN 9. He went for it. THIS GUY GETS PAID BIG $$$ TO COACH FOOTBALL???????? Here is play by play. 1-10-DEN 4 (6:09) (Shotgun) 20-T.Henry up the middle to DEN 7 for 3 yards (97-R.Hayward). 2-7-DEN 7 (5:33) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler sacked at DEN 3 for -4 yards (97-R.Hayward). 3-11-DEN 3 (5:01) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short right to 84-J.Walker to DEN 9 for 6 yards (26-S.Knight). 4-5-DEN 9 (4:19) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass incomplete deep middle to 89-D.Graham (25-R.Nelson). PENALTY on DEN-89-D.Graham, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced between downs. I had Jacksonville, to me it was just the stupidest coaching move I've ever seen.

Did you watch the game?Denver had zero time outs left, and their defense had been getting owned all game. I doubt Denver ever would have got the ball back or with enough time to do anything.Every fan I've talked too thought it was the right move. They would have completed the first down, but Graham dropped the ball on his way down.

That's pretty much how I saw it too. He was betting his offense might not see the ball again. I'm guessing of all the people on the planet able to judge his defense's chances, he's pretty high up on the list of people that know. J

Kind of like knowing your team well enough to go with an empty backfield on the 1 yard line and try to pass it in for the touchdown.

 

[thatguy]

I thought he made the right call. Denver hadn't been able to stop the run all day, so there was a very good chance that Jax would have pounded the ball and picked up a couple first downs and game over...

As it turns out, he called a play, Graham got open (so it was a good play call), Cutler made a perfect throw, and Graham dropped the ball. Classic example of good coaching but poor execution.

If a mistake was made, it was thinking that Daniel Graham could actually catch. (On a side not, I realize he's a great blocker, but in all honesty, I still scratch my head over that signing, especially given the size of his contract. His blocking has probably helped to this point, but it's quite likely that his stone hands have already cost Denver one game. The complete disappearance of Tony Scheffler is interesting as well...)

 

[Mr. Brownstone]

So his other option is to punt from the endzone and the opponent gets the ball somewhere between the 45 and the 45.

This would around 4:00 left to play. All you need is to get to the Denver 33 yd line to make it a two score game. Or you just pound the ball and run down the clock.

1) What is between the 45 and the 45?2) I think punting and 3 and out probably is a much higher percentage call than 4th and 6. I could be wrong, but we aren't talking 4th and inches here.

The 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 49, 48, 47, and 46 yard lines. HTH

 

[J R]

Denver was down 6 points with 4:30 left in the fourth quarter. He had 4th and 5 from HIS OWN 9. He went for it. THIS GUY GETS PAID BIG $$$ TO COACH FOOTBALL???????? Here is play by play. 1-10-DEN 4 (6:09) (Shotgun) 20-T.Henry up the middle to DEN 7 for 3 yards (97-R.Hayward). 2-7-DEN 7 (5:33) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler sacked at DEN 3 for -4 yards (97-R.Hayward). 3-11-DEN 3 (5:01) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short right to 84-J.Walker to DEN 9 for 6 yards (26-S.Knight). 4-5-DEN 9 (4:19) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass incomplete deep middle to 89-D.Graham (25-R.Nelson). PENALTY on DEN-89-D.Graham, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced between downs. I had Jacksonville, to me it was just the stupidest coaching move I've ever seen.

Did you watch the game?Denver had zero time outs left, and their defense had been getting owned all game. I doubt Denver ever would have got the ball back or with enough time to do anything.Every fan I've talked too thought it was the right move. They would have completed the first down, but Graham dropped the ball on his way down.

That's pretty much how I saw it too. He was betting his offense might not see the ball again. I'm guessing of all the people on the planet able to judge his defense's chances, he's pretty high up on the list of people that know. J

Kind of like knowing your team well enough to go with an empty backfield on the 1 yard line and try to pass it in for the touchdown.

zing.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

It was the second 3rd dumbest coach playcalling decision in NFL history.

Luckily for Shanahan, Joe Pisarcik once handed off into Larry Csonka's hip instead of kneeling....and also Marty "take the wind" Morninwheg.

Fixed.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

If another coach had done this....example, Norv Turner, Tom Coughlin...they would be ridiculed.

 

[Ghost Rider]

If another coach had done this....example, Norv Turner, Tom Coughlin...they would be ridiculed.

That's because they do not have a history of winning like Shanahan does.

 

[Liquid Tension]

The people saying it is the stupidest move I have ever seen are wrong. The people are that are saying there is no way that Denver could get a stop are wrong as well. Going for it was probably the higher percentage move, but it is very close. You have to admit in watching the game, that even if you knew that 3 straight runs were coming (a roll-out is possible), the odds of getting a 3 and out are not great with a tired defense going against a solid ground game. Of course getting a 4th and 5 is not easy as well. At the end of the day, Denver was in a bad spot and the odds of victory were very slim at their own 5 yard line with no timeouts, 4 minutes to go and needing a TD. The option of punting is a bad one as even if you get the stop you would still get the ball back with less than 2 minutes to go and no timeouts and 80 yards to go. I think Shanahan felt that at some point in the long drive he would need to convert a 4th down play anyway, so why not do it now. This is not cut and dry, but if you ask me the slightest higher percentage chance of winning the game was to go for it.

BTW, people who change their decision based on a guy making it or not just don't get it. It is either a good % play or it is not, the outcome is sometimes just a little luck. You can be gutsy and stupid and you can be gutsy when it is the correct % move. At times when it is close like this, your gut call is probably the correct one; though it didn't work out.

 

[Vladislav Tretiak]

It was the second dumbest coach playcalling decision in NFL history. Luckily for Shanahan, Joe Pisarcik once handed off into Larry Csonka's hip instead of kneeling.

Where does the Denny Green decision to kneel on third and fourth down in the last minute and a half of the '98 NFC championship game rate?

 

[Liquid Tension]

It was the second dumbest coach playcalling decision in NFL history. Luckily for Shanahan, Joe Pisarcik once handed off into Larry Csonka's hip instead of kneeling.

Where does the Denny Green decision to kneel on third and fourth down in the last minute and a half of the '98 NFC championship game rate?

This would open up a new thread of bonehead decisions

 

[Gr00vus]

If you'd been watching the game you'd have noticed that Denver's defense had been on the field nearly the entire game and they had given up 21 first downs on 9 posessions and allowed Jacksonville to convert more than 50% of 3rd and 4th down conversions.If they couldn't stop them all day, what would make you think they would be able to stop them when they were tired and worn down?

I look at it the other way. If Denver's defense had been on the field "nearly the entire game" it means the Denver offense hadn't exactly been going gangbusters. Why would you expect them to be successful on 4th and 5? Further, even if they pick it up they still needed to go about 80 yards for the score with no timeouts.Bad decision. You punt the ball, maybe the returner muffs it, you get a favorable bounce, who knows. If you get a decent punt they're around midfield. You stack the box with everybody and dare Garrard to throw. I doubt Jax attempts a pass. Turns out they held Jacksonville to 3 yards (8 without the delay penalty) after they turned the ball over on downs. Give yourself a chance - maybe you do that at midfield after the punt instead of going for it. Then Jax is punting with about 2 minutes left, you can go for a block, maybe get a big return, who knows.But going for it there - stupid call.

 

[richn]

Did Shanahan comment on the decision????

 

[Regis]

There sure are a lot of posts about Shanahan's bad decision. Good thing he doesn't make them often!

I was questioning him after this game and almost felt guilty for doing so. He's been so good for so long, he's bound to screw up once in a while.

I agree the worst calls of the day were: 1) Not Kicking the FG in the 3rd qtr and 2) calling a QB sneak needing about a yard and a half for the first down.

I wasn't happy when he put the game on the line for that one 4th down conversion with over 4 minutes to play, but looking back I can see where he probably thought it was his best option with no timeouts. Speaking of timeouts, it seems a post or two here has blamed Shanny for the lack of timeouts. I think Jay Cutler burned 2 of them within a span of a couple minutes due to some confusion (maybe before that QB sneak on 4th down? I don't remember exactly...)

 

[Ice Cream Man]

Got this from yahoo sports:

"Bold and Possibly Crazy Call of the Week

Mike Shanahan goes for it on 4th and 6 from his own five-yard line down six in the fourth quarter with four minutes left and no timeouts. Jay Cutler throws a perfect strike to Daniel Graham who drops the pass. Jacksonville ball, game over.

Here's why Shanahan's decision makes sense. Even if the Broncos only had a 30 percent chance of converting the first down, that would give them a fresh set of downs and three and a half minutes to score a touchdown. If we give them a 20 percent chance to get down the field in those circumstances, that means they had a six percent chance to win the game, assuming they managed the clock optimally and left little or no time for Jacksonville.

If Shanahan punts the ball, let's say there's a 50 percent chance that Jacksonville gets a first down and runs the clock out. So there's a 50 percent chance that the Jaguars punt, and Denver gets the ball back with less than two minutes left at its own 20 with no timeouts. In that case, there might be a 12 percent chance that they get down the field and score a touchdown, i.e. a six percent chance overall.

Obviously, I'm making up all these numbers, but they're plausible, and you can see why going for it in that situation isn't any more risky than punting. The only difference is that Shanahan was taking the chance all at once rather than stretching it out over several plays. (And that he trusted his offense more than his defense in that case as Jacksonville was moving the ball easily on them, and they were worn down). That you would stake the game on one play rather than several doesn't make it any more risky if the chance of winning is the same either way. Like a good poker player, Shanahan realized that at some point you have to make a stand, even if the odds aren't good. To simply fold until you have no choice (a la Norv Turner vs. New England) isn't a winning strategy, either."

http://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/nfl/news;_...e&type=lgns

 

[j3r3m3y]

Obviously, I'm making up all these numbers,

That is the flaw in the article.The author could have said what he said much more efficiently:

"Was it a bad call? It could have been, but then again it might not have been,"