What we learned this year - RB (1 Viewer)

[Sigmund Bloom]

Size Doesn't Matter - Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, Maurice Jones-Drew, none of these guys look like the archetype stud back, except if you want to utter the holiest of holy comparisons - Barry Sanders.
Mileage trumps Age - Clinton Portis starts to show signs of breaking down ay 28. Tomlinson is clearly in his victory lap. We wondered if Westbrook would even play again for a few days. Yet Ricky Williams and Thomas Jones look like they are in their prime, and they're over 30. The veterans who haven't been ridden into the ground every year of their career can still have a lot of gas in the tank at the end of the road. Jones and Williams will be undervalued again next year, neither looks like a cliff is coming up.
Don't fear the veteran stalked by the rookie - Tim Hightower, Joseph Addai, Thomas Jones, and Correll Buckhalter all outperformed expectations despite being on a team that made a strong investment in a rookie back. Jerome Harrison, Cadillac Williams, and Steve Slaton could be value picks next year under this theory.
Beware the overperforming rookie starter in his second year - Steve Slaton and Matt Forte both burned owners who spent first-round picks expecting 08 production levels in 09. Both came into 2009 as the starter. Of course, Chris Johnson could be considered the exception, one size never fits all when it comes to trends. No 2009 rookies will qualify for this designation in 2010.
Take a chance on the underperforming rookie backup/committee back in his second year at a discount - Rashard Mendenhall, Ray Rice, Jamaal Charles all came a discount because of stumbling blocks they tripped over in 2008. All had to evict veterans from the starting spot, and they did, in Mendenhall's case the week after getting benched - Charles also had to overcome some coaches doubts. Jonathan Stewart's ROI was good enough as his good weeks often came in good matchups + he brought it home in week 16 even though he shared with DeAngelo - he didn't underperform in 08 as much he remained firmly blocked in 09. Felix Jones is the exception here, and Darren McFadden was a crushing bust, but no discount . Donald Brown fits this the best for '10, but McCoy, Moreno, Greene, and even Wells will probably valued on point or undervalued heading into 2010 drafts.
Bad QB play can defang an otherwise studly back - Exhibit A Steven Jackson, Exhibit B DeAngelo Williams. Moore may make Williams a top 5 back again. Steven Jackson will still justifiably go in the first because he was still strong in a terrible offense, if STL's O can come together at all, even just spread the field and set up better running lanes like KC, then Jackson could be back in the top 5.
When everyone in your league passes on a starter 6-7 times, they probably aren't a good pick - In just about every draft, Julius Jones and Jamal Lewis were the last two starters off the board, and they did much less to help their teams than upside picks around the same part of the draft like Charles, Mendenhall, and Maroney. Of course, the next tier up of starters who weren't buzz backs and fell included Addai, TJones, and Benson (and Parker and LJ), so there are values to be found picking starters who slide, just avoid the guys you wouldn't even consider taking if it wasn't for their place on the depth chart - take a chance on the underrated starter who finished strong in the previous year.
Coaches can be frustrating, believe in talent - Michael Bush showed flashes at the beginning and end of the year, but never got a chance to get into a rhythm. Jerome Harrison had a strong game as the starter vs. Cincinnati early in the season, but had to have the third best rushing performance in NFL history to finally win the job outright. Justin Forsett confirmed that he was a better back than Julius Jones when Jones got hurt, but was forced to share with Jones when he returned from injury.
Bounce back candidates in 2010? - I'm not sure what to make of the cases of Michael Turner (hard-luck injury just when he was running like top 3 back again after heavy workload year), Brandon Jacobs (hurt most of the year? squandered terrific situation), Ahmad Bradshaw (seemingly poised to take over job, but health possibly held him back), Darren Sproles (game-breaking plays when he got a lot of touches, but also a convincing argument for him not being a viable back b/w the tackles when LT), Marshawn Lynch (suspension let underrated back get foot in the door, seeming value turned into back barely worth rostering), and Marion Barber (nicked up and lacking explosion, Short yardage TD opps were sporadic). All could be good values in 2010.What did you learn in 2009? How will it change your approach to RB drafting in 2010?

 

[BigTex]

I went against the grain in a redraft money league and it paid off. I drafted 4 rbs in rounds 1-4 and still was able to snag Big Ben and Ocho. I've learned that there's no "one" right way to drafting. Use your board, common sense and your gut and don't follow the herd.

Tex

 

[Captain Hook]

I went against the grain in a redraft money league and it paid off. I drafted 4 rbs in rounds 1-4 and still was able to snag Big Ben and Ocho. I've learned that there's no "one" right way to drafting. Use your board, common sense and your gut and don't follow the herd.Tex

IF you take the right players, your position in the draft or the order in which you take players (position wise) doesnt matter.....and NOBODY hits on every pick....but you don't need to hit on every pick - even early ones if enough of your others give you value and depth with players that contribute at some point during the season.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

Mileage trumps Age - Clinton Portis starts to show signs of breaking down ay 28. Tomlinson is clearly in his victory lap. We wondered if Westbrook would even play again for a few days. Yet Ricky Williams and Thomas Jones look like they are in their prime, and they're over 30. The veterans who haven't been ridden into the ground every year of their career can still have a lot of gas in the tank at the end of the road. Jones and Williams will be undervalued again next year, neither looks like a cliff is coming up.

Great thread Bloom. I'm not convinced that, just based on a very small set of observations, mileage trumps age. It will be interesting to follow this theory going forward, because it could lead you to make great decisions or terrible decisions.

Couldn't you just as easily say: we have two examples of old RBs failing (LT, Westbrook) and 2 examples of them thriving (Ricky, TJ)?

 

[mikel2014]

Mileage trumps Age - Clinton Portis starts to show signs of breaking down ay 28. Tomlinson is clearly in his victory lap. We wondered if Westbrook would even play again for a few days. Yet Ricky Williams and Thomas Jones look like they are in their prime, and they're over 30. The veterans who haven't been ridden into the ground every year of their career can still have a lot of gas in the tank at the end of the road. Jones and Williams will be undervalued again next year, neither looks like a cliff is coming up.

Great thread Bloom. I'm not convinced that, just based on a very small set of observations, mileage trumps age. It will be interesting to follow this theory going forward, because it could lead you to make great decisions or terrible decisions.

Couldn't you just as easily say: we have two examples of old RBs failing (LT, Westbrook) and 2 examples of them thriving (Ricky, TJ)?

I'm wondering that myself. What makes Westbrook have that more mileage than Thomas Jones? Westbrook was drafted in 2002, 2 years after Jones. He has 1303 rushes and 422 carries, a total of 1725 touches. Compare that to TJ's 2542 touches (2253 carries and 289 catches). Thomas Jones has played in 41 more games than Westbrook too. I think a case could be made that Westbrook has the least mileage of the group due to all of his missed games.

 

[Couch Potato]

Portis was not slowed by mileage. He was slowed by multiple injury issues and a backup quality OL, again due to injuries.

I'm not a mileage-trumps-age believer. The body naturally slows due to age, and recovers from injury more slowly due to age. At this level just a small difference becomes a big difference production-wise. There's no magic age for every player (hence Ricky and T Jones still producing) because individual players have different genetics, but I still believe the culprit that robs a RB of his speed is age, not workload.

 

[Chief]

What i learned is that despite the injury report, that players or coaches can hide injuries.

example: Slaton's numbness in his arms and Jacobs' knee injury.

Come to find out, these players were dealing with these injuries for a while before the news actually came out. How long were the players hiding their problems? or was it the training staff or coaches? who knows.

signed,

frustrated owner of both aforementioned players.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

IMO #5 was the biggest lesson to learn.

I would also like to add that my strategy was unless I had a top pick I was gonna pretty much pass on RBs in round1 and 2 and target Grant/Addai later.

I feel the same about this coming season

 

[BlackMagic10]

Nice read.

 

[Mr.Pack]

Add Cedric Benson to #2.

Good read

 

[teamroc]

Portis was not slowed by mileage. He was slowed by multiple injury issues and a backup quality OL, again due to injuries.I'm not a mileage-trumps-age believer. The body naturally slows due to age, and recovers from injury more slowly due to age. At this level just a small difference becomes a big difference production-wise. There's no magic age for every player (hence Ricky and T Jones still producing) because individual players have different genetics, but I still believe the culprit that robs a RB of his speed is age, not workload.

As your body breaks down, you're more prone to injury. I don't believe in X number ='s this result. But his carries were a concern. Will high carry backs always break down? No way. But it's something to factor in IMHO.

 

[UnknownCoach]

I learned that committees are here to stay. I was hoping it was just a fad. Its no longer just thunder and lightning. A team like Oakland or New England uses so many RBs that we cant even count on a guy getting ten carries.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Great stuff, Sig. Really enjoying these threads. A couple of thoughts:

1) Height doesn't matter. Maurice Jones-Drew has a BMI of 31.2; Rice has a BMI of 28.8. Johnson may be a little lighter, but his everything else is off the charts. These guys are short, but who cares about height. I still think size matters.

2) Thomas Jones will have had five straight years of 290+ carries as he enters 2010. I am not arguing with your point, but am not sure I would classify Jones as a super safe bet next year.

6) Bad QB play didn't defang Thomas Jones or Jerome Harrison or Jammal Charles. Bad QB play can limit TD opps, but I think the QB-RB relationship is generally way overblown.

8) I'm not sure I understand your takeaway here. Are you saying to believe in talent or ignore RBs who play for frustrating coaches?

 

[NeverEnough]

The days of must go RB-RB are long gone.

 

[tbglog]

There are some exciting young talented RB's showing promise. B Wells will be a force in the NFL. He shows great explosion off the line and could hit double digit TD's next year.

Harrison and Charles got opportunities late in the season and opened alot of eyes.

Ray Rice is the real deal.

Fosett should surplant J Jones in Seattle.

There will be great value at the #2RB spot next year after the big names are cleared out. I believe anyone of these could could put up #10 numbers next year.

 

[QUEZILLA]

Handcuffing is still as important as ever. Ronnie/Ricky, Deangelo/Stewart, LJ/Charles, Parker/Mendy, McGahee/Rice immediately come to mind. A few other situations could be argued as well.

 

[norgay]

Handcuffing is still as important as ever. Ronnie/Ricky, Deangelo/Stewart, LJ/Charles, Parker/Mendy, McGahee/Rice immediately come to mind. A few other situations could be argued as well.

Especially because now that there are so many 2-RB systems, often the "handcuffs" are viable starters even when they are just a "handcuff", as Ricky Willaims was before Ronnie went down.

 

[Julius Seizure]

Only one thing to learn. The waiver wire is sometimes more important than the draft. I won one of my leagues with Harrison/Charles at RB in the last 2 weeks.

 

[Truman]

What did you learn in 2009? How will it change your approach to RB drafting in 2010?

I'll be drafting them early, even at the turn. The one league where I felt forced into that was in WCOFF, where I got Turner and DeAngelo Williams. If they stayed healthy my team was set for playoff noise.Stud WRs at the turn did nothing for me except derail teams at 2 positions.

 

[Steed]

What did you learn in 2009? How will it change your approach to RB drafting in 2010?

I'll be drafting them early, even at the turn. The one league where I felt forced into that was in WCOFF, where I got Turner and DeAngelo Williams. If they stayed healthy my team was set for playoff noise.Stud WRs at the turn did nothing for me except derail teams at 2 positions.

Didn't Turner and DeAngelo derail you as well?

 

[Truman]

What did you learn in 2009? How will it change your approach to RB drafting in 2010?

I'll be drafting them early, even at the turn. The one league where I felt forced into that was in WCOFF, where I got Turner and DeAngelo Williams. If they stayed healthy my team was set for playoff noise.Stud WRs at the turn did nothing for me except derail teams at 2 positions.

Didn't Turner and DeAngelo derail you as well?

Not so much. I was still able to land studs in Schaub, Santonio Holmes and Vernon Davis at value. Calvin Johnson/Andre Johnson at the turn?

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Mileage trumps Age - Clinton Portis starts to show signs of breaking down ay 28. Tomlinson is clearly in his victory lap. We wondered if Westbrook would even play again for a few days. Yet Ricky Williams and Thomas Jones look like they are in their prime, and they're over 30. The veterans who haven't been ridden into the ground every year of their career can still have a lot of gas in the tank at the end of the road. Jones and Williams will be undervalued again next year, neither looks like a cliff is coming up.

Great thread Bloom. I'm not convinced that, just based on a very small set of observations, mileage trumps age. It will be interesting to follow this theory going forward, because it could lead you to make great decisions or terrible decisions.

Couldn't you just as easily say: we have two examples of old RBs failing (LT, Westbrook) and 2 examples of them thriving (Ricky, TJ)?

I'm wondering that myself. What makes Westbrook have that more mileage than Thomas Jones? Westbrook was drafted in 2002, 2 years after Jones. He has 1303 rushes and 422 carries, a total of 1725 touches. Compare that to TJ's 2542 touches (2253 carries and 289 catches). Thomas Jones has played in 41 more games than Westbrook too. I think a case could be made that Westbrook has the least mileage of the group due to all of his missed games.

My other take is do college workloads matter in this equation. Take for example Ronnie Brown who split with Caddy for most of his career and Brandon Jacobs for awhile at Auburn vs Cedric Benson who had a very heavy workload for almost his entire college career.Should that be factored into the equation?

 

[lyon812]

Handcuffing is still as important as ever. Ronnie/Ricky, Deangelo/Stewart, LJ/Charles, Parker/Mendy, McGahee/Rice immediately come to mind. A few other situations could be argued as well.

I know it's an old debate, but handcuffing is illusory, in that it's less important than "sometimes working out in your favor". There are numerous permutations above that would be better for your team than having LJ/Charles and Ronnie/Ricky on your team. For example, the person that had Charles, Mendenhall, and Rice and opted for talent over the nominal starter had greater upside, greater depth, greater trade flexibility, and greater long-term value than anyone with LJ, Parker, McGahee, or Williams on their team. I've had far more success not handcuffing.

 

[Hendo]

two RB's i will value top dollar in dynasty leagues: Jonathan Stewart and Beanie Wells

i have seen many games from these two and i just see feature stardom for both. They have power/speed and a knack for breaking tackles and finding the holes in lanes. If given a chance to be featured i think both will thrive. I am not concerned at all with Williams in Carolina(will be likely moved in a year or two) and Hightower does not have the skill to keep Beanie off the field long term. Arizona will lean on Beanie in the near future more so when Warner is gone imo.

 

[mikel2014]

Mileage trumps Age - Clinton Portis starts to show signs of breaking down ay 28. Tomlinson is clearly in his victory lap. We wondered if Westbrook would even play again for a few days. Yet Ricky Williams and Thomas Jones look like they are in their prime, and they're over 30. The veterans who haven't been ridden into the ground every year of their career can still have a lot of gas in the tank at the end of the road. Jones and Williams will be undervalued again next year, neither looks like a cliff is coming up.

Great thread Bloom. I'm not convinced that, just based on a very small set of observations, mileage trumps age. It will be interesting to follow this theory going forward, because it could lead you to make great decisions or terrible decisions.

Couldn't you just as easily say: we have two examples of old RBs failing (LT, Westbrook) and 2 examples of them thriving (Ricky, TJ)?

I'm wondering that myself. What makes Westbrook have that more mileage than Thomas Jones? Westbrook was drafted in 2002, 2 years after Jones. He has 1303 rushes and 422 carries, a total of 1725 touches. Compare that to TJ's 2542 touches (2253 carries and 289 catches). Thomas Jones has played in 41 more games than Westbrook too. I think a case could be made that Westbrook has the least mileage of the group due to all of his missed games.

My other take is do college workloads matter in this equation. Take for example Ronnie Brown who split with Caddy for most of his career and Brandon Jacobs for awhile at Auburn vs Cedric Benson who had a very heavy workload for almost his entire college career.Should that be factored into the equation?

I imagine they would, but probably not as much. Younger players are naturally able to recover quicker than older ones, so the effects of the hits in college wouldn't be as much as ones received in the pros. By that same thinking, how would injuries factor in? I don't think anyone would argue against Westbrook having a history of injury problems. I could see that affecting his mileage (to stick with the original phrasing). Maybe it all boils down to the body's ability to recover from the hits it takes, on a play-to-play basis and throughout the course of a season. I'm interested in hearing what Bloom's thoughts are as this was his original point.

 

[KCC]

I would add mid-round RB depth beats early round RB picks.

I did well this year going WR-WR-QB with my first three picks and then loaded up on RB depth in the middle draft rounds with guys like Benson, Mendenhall, Moreno, etc. I seemed to do better than many other people that went with "safe" RB choices in the first couple rounds and then waited until the later rounds of the draft to snag their other RBs. As always, there's a danger in overgeneralizing from a one case example. Did anyone else do well with this approach, or did I just get lucky?

 

[bucksoh]

When it comes to being a top RB look at there OL. Out of the top 5 this year only Peterson didn't have a top run blocking OL. It all starts up front there is very rarely an exception.

 

[Captain Hook]

two RB's i will value top dollar in dynasty leagues: Jonathan Stewart and Beanie Wellsi have seen many games from these two and i just see feature stardom for both. They have power/speed and a knack for breaking tackles and finding the holes in lanes. If given a chance to be featured i think both will thrive. I am not concerned at all with Williams in Carolina(will be likely moved in a year or two) and Hightower does not have the skill to keep Beanie off the field long term. Arizona will lean on Beanie in the near future more so when Warner is gone imo.

Okay but allow some counter observations on both JStew - I see everyone jumping on board (or back on).....BUT he still has the foot problem as evidenced this week....it will not go away, so if/when he is the primary back, there WILL be games when he can't goWells - as long as the quarterback is Warner (at least next year), this is still a passing team....yes they are running more this year but he won't have the value you refer to until Leinart (or someone else) is the QB - 2011 at the earliest AND if it is Leinart as the plan is now and they are then much more of a running team, Leinart better prove to everyone that he can throw to keep eight defensive players on Beanie

 

[LawFitz]

Number one thing I learned (actually re-learned) is that RB is the most risky and overrated position in leagues that balance out scoring and scarcity value among positions via PPR and 3 WR slots. RB has by far the highest potential for injury and is the easiest to plug in off waivers when injury does strike and a new guy gets a chance.

Think about it, how often do we see RBs come off the bench to put up decent numbers? This is no coincidence. It's the same reason why rookie RBs tend to do better on average than rookie QBs or WRs. It's b/c RB is the most basic of the skill positions. Plug a guy in who runs hard in a decent offense and off you go.

Unless the guy is an all-world stud RB on at least a decent offense (CJIII, AP, MJD, Rice) I'm not touching him in the first two rounds when I can get stud QBs and WRs instead. I'll take an underrated starter on a good offense (e.g. Addai, Grant) and some upside RBBC types (Charles, Beanie, Stewart) in the later rounds.

Too often in my leagues I've seen guys plug and play waiver RBs late in the season on the way to a championship. The common denominator has been stellar QB and at least three studs among the 3WR/1TE slots. This year was no exception - I won one league with Grant/Harrison and came within a point of winning my other one with Beanie/Charles.

 

[nerangers]

What I learned is just use your common sense...

You have to take league size and scoring system into consideration for your drafting plan. I was the Super Bowl Champ in an 18 team league I joined this season. Had I gone RB with my first two draft picks, I don't think I would have won it. I drafted from the 12th position and got RB Frank Gore (actually did well with PPR), and then got QB Aaron Rodgers in the second round. Looking at the RBs that would have been available to me in the second round would not have helped as much as Rodgers did. I don't think I have ever drafted a QB this early, and based on the league size, QBs went quick in the first three rounds. Based on league size, I do think handcuffing was important as well. Coffee was a help while Gore was out. I was able to get Knowshon Moreno later as my #2 back, which was serviceable.

I will admit that RB was definitely my weakest position in this league, but it did seem that RBs were not as important as having a good QB and WRs (due to PPR). My draft seem to pan out...

*2 cents*

PS Waivers are your friend if you have unlimited moves!

 

[dcgangstas]

Solid thread, Sig.

I was a big believer of Joseph Addai having a bounce-back year, and it panned out nicely getting him in the 5th round in 3 different 12-team leagues.

I also learned that you can't put a lot of stock into the previous year's goal-line RBs. LenDale White was very productive last season with 15 TDs, and he couldn't smell the field this year behind Chris Johnson's phenomenal season.

 

[the spanker]

 

[Gary Davenport]

Number one thing I learned (actually re-learned) is that RB is the most risky and overrated position in leagues that balance out scoring and scarcity value among positions via PPR and 3 WR slots. RB has by far the highest potential for injury and is the easiest to plug in off waivers when injury does strike and a new guy gets a chance.Think about it, how often do we see RBs come off the bench to put up decent numbers? This is no coincidence. It's the same reason why rookie RBs tend to do better on average than rookie QBs or WRs. It's b/c RB is the most basic of the skill positions. Plug a guy in who runs hard in a decent offense and off you go.Unless the guy is an all-world stud RB on at least a decent offense (CJIII, AP, MJD, Rice) I'm not touching him in the first two rounds when I can get stud QBs and WRs instead. I'll take an underrated starter on a good offense (e.g. Addai, Grant) and some upside RBBC types (Charles, Beanie, Stewart) in the later rounds.Too often in my leagues I've seen guys plug and play waiver RBs late in the season on the way to a championship. The common denominator has been stellar QB and at least three studs among the 3WR/1TE slots. This year was no exception - I won one league with Grant/Harrison and came within a point of winning my other one with Beanie/Charles.

Even with PPR and 3 WR slots the scarcity's still there, it's just not not as pronounced. Give me a bellcow back I can build around and I'll take my chances with a rotation at WR3 or a platoon at QB. That said, as I said in the WR thread, it's all about flexibility...you gotta let the draft come to you instead of chasing some half a***d "I gotta have 3 stud WR/2 stud RB/a stud QB/whatever" strategy that pigeonholes you. Build the best squad you can and then hope to fill in the blanks after.

 

[robz0r]

RB's that are old and injured are just asking for you to crash and burn, I took Clinton Portis, LT, Westbrook on a few teams as a severe value, guess where they all finished?

Mid round picks 5-10, are now officially my breeding grounds for RB's if I have my QB and and a decent WRx2 I am straight drafting every RB i think is solid. This past year that would have been the likes of Ray Rice, Benson, Moreno, Ricky Williams?

Be very very wary of RB's that are starting to die off, and gobble up the backups.

Rejuvenated offenses are the key to championship runs; Snelling, Harrison, Charles, Forsett, Cartright & Ganther all made or attempted to make some leagues very very competitive for me.

 

[Instinctive]

Some other food for thought would be that when a guy has nobody significant behind him, and he's guaranteed to get 20+ carries a game, you take him.

Frank Gore, Ryan Grant, Thomas Jones, Cedric Benson---they all fell a bit because of a new rookie back or perceived lack of talent...but they produced.

The flipside of that is of course Julius Jones and Jamal Lewis, but they both played for such terrible teams that I think it was less their fault and more a factor of situation.

I suppose what I'm saying is that anybody on at least a mediocre team with no backups threatening...should be drafted.

 

[LawFitz]

Number one thing I learned (actually re-learned) is that RB is the most risky and overrated position in leagues that balance out scoring and scarcity value among positions via PPR and 3 WR slots. RB has by far the highest potential for injury and is the easiest to plug in off waivers when injury does strike and a new guy gets a chance.

Think about it, how often do we see RBs come off the bench to put up decent numbers? This is no coincidence. It's the same reason why rookie RBs tend to do better on average than rookie QBs or WRs. It's b/c RB is the most basic of the skill positions. Plug a guy in who runs hard in a decent offense and off you go.

Unless the guy is an all-world stud RB on at least a decent offense (CJIII, AP, MJD, Rice) I'm not touching him in the first two rounds when I can get stud QBs and WRs instead. I'll take an underrated starter on a good offense (e.g. Addai, Grant) and some upside RBBC types (Charles, Beanie, Stewart) in the later rounds.

Too often in my leagues I've seen guys plug and play waiver RBs late in the season on the way to a championship. The common denominator has been stellar QB and at least three studs among the 3WR/1TE slots. This year was no exception - I won one league with Grant/Harrison and came within a point of winning my other one with Beanie/Charles.

Even with PPR and 3 WR slots the scarcity's still there, it's just not not as pronounced. Give me a bellcow back I can build around and I'll take my chances with a rotation at WR3 or a platoon at QB. That said, as I said in the WR thread, it's all about flexibility...you gotta let the draft come to you instead of chasing some half a***d "I gotta have 3 stud WR/2 stud RB/a stud QB/whatever" strategy that pigeonholes you. Build the best squad you can and then hope to fill in the blanks after.

Ultimately, I agree with your point. I'll take a stud early in the draft at ANY position. And when choosing among studs I'll consider risk factors to their studliness to break ties, rather than position played. Like I said, I'll take the big four RBs next year but after that I've got a long list of QBs and WRs I'll take before taking any other RB. Scarcity at RB is similar to the other positions at the high end (i.e. studs) but much less so after that (a lot more plug and play RBs than QBs and WRs IMO later in the draft and off waivers over the course of the year to fill in roster holes). I guess what I'm saying is due to RBBC, PPR, 3 WR slots and either 6 pt passing TDs or 2 QB slots, my personal version of VBD has me waiting on RBs after the big four. How's that for some fantasy jargon?

 

[Enforcer]

Justin Forsett confirmed that he was a better back than Julius Jones when Jones got hurt, but was forced to share with Jones when he returned from injury.

I really believe this is just more wishful thinking than it is reality. I would like it to be true as well, but it just isn't. The reality is that Jones and Forsett are just about the same RB. Each player performed just about the same in the same situations.

 

[UnknownCoach]

Warner and Boldin will be gone in 2011. If Wells learns to catch, he could be a serious force in 2010. Even this year, he helped owners win championships. Wells must be the most unloved top ranked rookie RB to ever join the NFL. People continue to dog the guy.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

Nice observations. To add:

Talent trumps perceived opportunity. Concerns about backups such as L. White, D, Brown, L. Washington, and to lesser degrees W. McGahee and C. Taylor (receptions) cutting into the touches of the starting RBs never materialized. These concerns depressed the value of players like Chris Johnson, J. Addai, TJ, and Rice

Do not underestimate the importance of the OLine The lack of talent on the OLine killed the value of players like Forte, M. Lynch, Portis, McFadden, J. Lewis and to a lesser degree LT.

A leopard can not change it's spots. Don't expect a miraculous change in a situation where there is a history. In 5 years Jacobs has never had over 226 carries in a season. Projecting substantially higher carries caused his value to be grossly inflated. This also applies to teams in general. McFadden value was grossly inflated based on some perceived belief that the Raiders "would be different this year." And do not expect coaches that have a history of using a RRBC approach to change (Belichick, Fox, and it appears, Payton).

Note that these observations, have many exceptions to the rule, but considered together will help avoid the potential bust players.

 

[Please See Mine]

Handcuffing is still as important as ever. Ronnie/Ricky, Deangelo/Stewart, LJ/Charles, Parker/Mendy, McGahee/Rice immediately come to mind. A few other situations could be argued as well.

I know it's an old debate, but handcuffing is illusory, in that it's less important than "sometimes working out in your favor". There are numerous permutations above that would be better for your team than having LJ/Charles and Ronnie/Ricky on your team. For example, the person that had Charles, Mendenhall, and Rice and opted for talent over the nominal starter had greater upside, greater depth, greater trade flexibility, and greater long-term value than anyone with LJ, Parker, McGahee, or Williams on their team. I've had far more success not handcuffing.

I tend to agree with this. In a vacuum, would you rather have Rice and Stewart or Rice and McGahee? Why do I care if the 2 guys on the same team if a guy on another team has better talent.Now, there are situations where it makes sense. If you had LJ and could have gotten Charles in the 14th round rather than Stewart in the 6th, then it might make sense. Also, if the team is so run-oriented like the Dolphins or Panthers, then it would also make sense (honestly you could start both guys on the same team and not be that bad off.)

But I think that handcuffing is much more situational and should not be an axiom.

 

[MAC_32]

If an NFL team gives someone a 2nd chance, I should consider it too, especially if the price is a cheap one.

The mileage vs. age rule is someone thing I may need to consider a bit more going forward too. I'm hesitant here though.

 

[Buckna]

I'm pretty sure there is a subscriber article from a few years ago that directly contradicts the Age Vs Mileage statement with some statistics to back it up. Might be a good idea to update it for some new data to see if it still holds up.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Mileage trumps Age - Clinton Portis starts to show signs of breaking down ay 28. Tomlinson is clearly in his victory lap. We wondered if Westbrook would even play again for a few days. Yet Ricky Williams and Thomas Jones look like they are in their prime, and they're over 30. The veterans who haven't been ridden into the ground every year of their career can still have a lot of gas in the tank at the end of the road.

Wait, what? Westbrook is probably the lowest mileage guy in that group. Thomas Jones meanwhile is a pretty high mileage guy.

Jones and Williams will be undervalued again next year, neither looks like a cliff is coming up.

Isn't that kind of the point though? Typically this isn't something that's telegraphed, it just happens from one season to the next. Curtis Martin, Edgerrin James, Shaun Alexander, etc. These guys fell off a cliff overnight, coming off of great seasons where they looked like spring chickens.

 

[Little Joe]

 

[SuperJohn96]

 

[Tanner9919]

Bloom

One of the most important things that gets overlooked is the 50% rule with RBs - 50% of those who finish in top 10 last year, won't be there next year..take it to the bank, it works without fail:

2008-Forte, Slaton, Tomlinson, Turner, Portis, D. Williams, out..

2009-Rice, Stewart, Benson, et all, in..

NEVER draft a guy coming off a 370+ carry season ( Turner)..

Never draft a guy coming off a 2000 yard season ( Johnson) , he won't sniff those yards again next season...

Ryant Grant isn't flashy,but he's a top 10 RB no matter how you slice it..

don't ever overlook the young RB was was waived and is born-again on a different team - Benson ( ala Thomas Jones once he left Az).

are we looking at Maroney going elsewhere and repeating this feat next year?!

don't draft a Philly RB if he isn't Westbrook - McCoy looked just ok at times, but disappeared at others.

"The Denver RB' myth has bitten the dust..Moreno was 'ok' , McDaniels has in fact, ushered in a RBBC with the Broncos. Buckhalter might be real value in 2010 should Moreno suffer a sophomore slump.

Beanie Wells is Robert Smith , v2.0..fast, but oft-injured.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Mileage trumps Age - Clinton Portis starts to show signs of breaking down ay 28. Tomlinson is clearly in his victory lap. We wondered if Westbrook would even play again for a few days. Yet Ricky Williams and Thomas Jones look like they are in their prime, and they're over 30. The veterans who haven't been ridden into the ground every year of their career can still have a lot of gas in the tank at the end of the road. Jones and Williams will be undervalued again next year, neither looks like a cliff is coming up.

Great thread Bloom. I'm not convinced that, just based on a very small set of observations, mileage trumps age. It will be interesting to follow this theory going forward, because it could lead you to make great decisions or terrible decisions.

Couldn't you just as easily say: we have two examples of old RBs failing (LT, Westbrook) and 2 examples of them thriving (Ricky, TJ)?

I'm wondering that myself. What makes Westbrook have that more mileage than Thomas Jones? Westbrook was drafted in 2002, 2 years after Jones. He has 1303 rushes and 422 carries, a total of 1725 touches. Compare that to TJ's 2542 touches (2253 carries and 289 catches). Thomas Jones has played in 41 more games than Westbrook too. I think a case could be made that Westbrook has the least mileage of the group due to all of his missed games.

My other take is do college workloads matter in this equation. Take for example Ronnie Brown who split with Caddy for most of his career and Brandon Jacobs for awhile at Auburn vs Cedric Benson who had a very heavy workload for almost his entire college career.Should that be factored into the equation?

I imagine they would, but probably not as much. Younger players are naturally able to recover quicker than older ones, so the effects of the hits in college wouldn't be as much as ones received in the pros. By that same thinking, how would injuries factor in? I don't think anyone would argue against Westbrook having a history of injury problems. I could see that affecting his mileage (to stick with the original phrasing). Maybe it all boils down to the body's ability to recover from the hits it takes, on a play-to-play basis and throughout the course of a season. I'm interested in hearing what Bloom's thoughts are as this was his original point.

Either way...young mileage vs old mileage shouldn't matter....it is still mileage. Have you seen a RB get force fed carries early in his college career only to fizzle and never amount to anything? I personally have, some are better at staying fresh than others.But I still think it is something to think about.

What makes players like Thomas Jones, Ricky Williams able to log sooo many carries and still able to produce vs others?

 

[shredhead]

Either way...young mileage vs old mileage shouldn't matter....it is still mileage. Have you seen a RB get force fed carries early in his college career only to fizzle and never amount to anything? I personally have, some are better at staying fresh than others.

But I still think it is something to think about.

What makes players like Thomas Jones, Ricky Williams able to log sooo many carries and still able to produce vs others?

:insertganjasmiliehere:

 

[rvmblack]

I learned nothing different than before my drafts. I went WR-WR in all of them

 

[High Speed Reject]

I followed a lot of folks' advice in the Shark Pool, and drafted WR high in all three of my leagues--turned out to be great advice.

RBBC will continue to diminish RB value.

Next year, I'll take a stud QB (Rodgers, Rivers, or Manning) and a host of explosive WRs (AJ, Desean Jackson, 2010 version of Crabtree maybe) and pass on DWill, Turner, Gore, SJax, et al overrated RBs...