Size Doesn't Matter - Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, Maurice Jones-Drew, none of these guys look like the archetype stud back, except if you want to utter the holiest of holy comparisons - Barry Sanders.
Mileage trumps Age - Clinton Portis starts to show signs of breaking down ay 28. Tomlinson is clearly in his victory lap. We wondered if Westbrook would even play again for a few days. Yet Ricky Williams and Thomas Jones look like they are in their prime, and they're over 30. The veterans who haven't been ridden into the ground every year of their career can still have a lot of gas in the tank at the end of the road. Jones and Williams will be undervalued again next year, neither looks like a cliff is coming up.
Don't fear the veteran stalked by the rookie - Tim Hightower, Joseph Addai, Thomas Jones, and Correll Buckhalter all outperformed expectations despite being on a team that made a strong investment in a rookie back. Jerome Harrison, Cadillac Williams, and Steve Slaton could be value picks next year under this theory.
Beware the overperforming rookie starter in his second year - Steve Slaton and Matt Forte both burned owners who spent first-round picks expecting 08 production levels in 09. Both came into 2009 as the starter. Of course, Chris Johnson could be considered the exception, one size never fits all when it comes to trends. No 2009 rookies will qualify for this designation in 2010.
Take a chance on the underperforming rookie backup/committee back in his second year at a discount - Rashard Mendenhall, Ray Rice, Jamaal Charles all came a discount because of stumbling blocks they tripped over in 2008. All had to evict veterans from the starting spot, and they did, in Mendenhall's case the week after getting benched - Charles also had to overcome some coaches doubts. Jonathan Stewart's ROI was good enough as his good weeks often came in good matchups + he brought it home in week 16 even though he shared with DeAngelo - he didn't underperform in 08 as much he remained firmly blocked in 09. Felix Jones is the exception here, and Darren McFadden was a crushing bust, but no discount . Donald Brown fits this the best for '10, but McCoy, Moreno, Greene, and even Wells will probably valued on point or undervalued heading into 2010 drafts.
Bad QB play can defang an otherwise studly back - Exhibit A Steven Jackson, Exhibit B DeAngelo Williams. Moore may make Williams a top 5 back again. Steven Jackson will still justifiably go in the first because he was still strong in a terrible offense, if STL's O can come together at all, even just spread the field and set up better running lanes like KC, then Jackson could be back in the top 5.
When everyone in your league passes on a starter 6-7 times, they probably aren't a good pick - In just about every draft, Julius Jones and Jamal Lewis were the last two starters off the board, and they did much less to help their teams than upside picks around the same part of the draft like Charles, Mendenhall, and Maroney. Of course, the next tier up of starters who weren't buzz backs and fell included Addai, TJones, and Benson (and Parker and LJ), so there are values to be found picking starters who slide, just avoid the guys you wouldn't even consider taking if it wasn't for their place on the depth chart - take a chance on the underrated starter who finished strong in the previous year.
Coaches can be frustrating, believe in talent - Michael Bush showed flashes at the beginning and end of the year, but never got a chance to get into a rhythm. Jerome Harrison had a strong game as the starter vs. Cincinnati early in the season, but had to have the third best rushing performance in NFL history to finally win the job outright. Justin Forsett confirmed that he was a better back than Julius Jones when Jones got hurt, but was forced to share with Jones when he returned from injury.
Bounce back candidates in 2010? - I'm not sure what to make of the cases of Michael Turner (hard-luck injury just when he was running like top 3 back again after heavy workload year), Brandon Jacobs (hurt most of the year? squandered terrific situation), Ahmad Bradshaw (seemingly poised to take over job, but health possibly held him back), Darren Sproles (game-breaking plays when he got a lot of touches, but also a convincing argument for him not being a viable back b/w the tackles when LT), Marshawn Lynch (suspension let underrated back get foot in the door, seeming value turned into back barely worth rostering), and Marion Barber (nicked up and lacking explosion, Short yardage TD opps were sporadic). All could be good values in 2010.What did you learn in 2009? How will it change your approach to RB drafting in 2010?
Mileage trumps Age - Clinton Portis starts to show signs of breaking down ay 28. Tomlinson is clearly in his victory lap. We wondered if Westbrook would even play again for a few days. Yet Ricky Williams and Thomas Jones look like they are in their prime, and they're over 30. The veterans who haven't been ridden into the ground every year of their career can still have a lot of gas in the tank at the end of the road. Jones and Williams will be undervalued again next year, neither looks like a cliff is coming up.
Don't fear the veteran stalked by the rookie - Tim Hightower, Joseph Addai, Thomas Jones, and Correll Buckhalter all outperformed expectations despite being on a team that made a strong investment in a rookie back. Jerome Harrison, Cadillac Williams, and Steve Slaton could be value picks next year under this theory.
Beware the overperforming rookie starter in his second year - Steve Slaton and Matt Forte both burned owners who spent first-round picks expecting 08 production levels in 09. Both came into 2009 as the starter. Of course, Chris Johnson could be considered the exception, one size never fits all when it comes to trends. No 2009 rookies will qualify for this designation in 2010.
Take a chance on the underperforming rookie backup/committee back in his second year at a discount - Rashard Mendenhall, Ray Rice, Jamaal Charles all came a discount because of stumbling blocks they tripped over in 2008. All had to evict veterans from the starting spot, and they did, in Mendenhall's case the week after getting benched - Charles also had to overcome some coaches doubts. Jonathan Stewart's ROI was good enough as his good weeks often came in good matchups + he brought it home in week 16 even though he shared with DeAngelo - he didn't underperform in 08 as much he remained firmly blocked in 09. Felix Jones is the exception here, and Darren McFadden was a crushing bust, but no discount . Donald Brown fits this the best for '10, but McCoy, Moreno, Greene, and even Wells will probably valued on point or undervalued heading into 2010 drafts.
Bad QB play can defang an otherwise studly back - Exhibit A Steven Jackson, Exhibit B DeAngelo Williams. Moore may make Williams a top 5 back again. Steven Jackson will still justifiably go in the first because he was still strong in a terrible offense, if STL's O can come together at all, even just spread the field and set up better running lanes like KC, then Jackson could be back in the top 5.
When everyone in your league passes on a starter 6-7 times, they probably aren't a good pick - In just about every draft, Julius Jones and Jamal Lewis were the last two starters off the board, and they did much less to help their teams than upside picks around the same part of the draft like Charles, Mendenhall, and Maroney. Of course, the next tier up of starters who weren't buzz backs and fell included Addai, TJones, and Benson (and Parker and LJ), so there are values to be found picking starters who slide, just avoid the guys you wouldn't even consider taking if it wasn't for their place on the depth chart - take a chance on the underrated starter who finished strong in the previous year.
Coaches can be frustrating, believe in talent - Michael Bush showed flashes at the beginning and end of the year, but never got a chance to get into a rhythm. Jerome Harrison had a strong game as the starter vs. Cincinnati early in the season, but had to have the third best rushing performance in NFL history to finally win the job outright. Justin Forsett confirmed that he was a better back than Julius Jones when Jones got hurt, but was forced to share with Jones when he returned from injury.
Bounce back candidates in 2010? - I'm not sure what to make of the cases of Michael Turner (hard-luck injury just when he was running like top 3 back again after heavy workload year), Brandon Jacobs (hurt most of the year? squandered terrific situation), Ahmad Bradshaw (seemingly poised to take over job, but health possibly held him back), Darren Sproles (game-breaking plays when he got a lot of touches, but also a convincing argument for him not being a viable back b/w the tackles when LT), Marshawn Lynch (suspension let underrated back get foot in the door, seeming value turned into back barely worth rostering), and Marion Barber (nicked up and lacking explosion, Short yardage TD opps were sporadic). All could be good values in 2010.What did you learn in 2009? How will it change your approach to RB drafting in 2010?
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