What will be the biggest reach in the first round? (1 Viewer)

[Weapon of Mass Instruction]

Which player will go well before he should? Maybe he'll turn out to be a good player, but will be drafted at a position that far exceeds his value/worth? I'm posting the first 10 in the mock from GBNReport as an example but we could talk about anyone in the first round.

#

Team

Player

POS

School

1 Oakland

Jamarcus Russell

QB

LSU

2 Atlanta (from Detroit) Calvin Johnson

WR

Georgia Tech

3

Cleveland Brady Quinn

QB

Notre Dame

4

Tampa Bay

Joe Thomas

OT Wisconsin

5

Arizona Gaines Adams

DE Clemson

6

Chicago (from Washington) Amobi Okoye

DT

Louisville

7 Minnesota Adrian Peterson

RB

Oklahoma

8

Detroit (from Houston thru Atlanta) Patrick Willis

LB

Mississippi

9

Miami Laron Landry

FS

LSU

10 Houston (from Atlanta) Darrelle Revis

CB

Pitsburgh

I'll start with 2 of them.1. I think that if Ted Ginn is taken in the first round that a team will have drafted him well ahead of his value. Maybe I'll be proven wrong, but I don't see anything but a return guy here. I see very little value as an NFL WR.

2. Brady Quinn. I think he'll be a reasonably solid NFL quarterback but no way do I see him as a top 3/5 QB.

 

[Colin Dowling]

Okoye, without question. I would take a healthy Justin Harrell or a motivated Alan Branch over him every day of the week.

 

[BassNBrew]

Whoever Buffalo drafts.

 

[Buc Dude]

From everything I'm reading, I don't see Gaines Adams being worthy of a top 5 pick. He should be a good player in time, but does he immediately upgrade a defense like say a Julius Peppers? I'm scared the Bucs may end up taking him @ #4.

 

[Weapon of Mass Instruction]

Forgot one. Posluszny, if taken in the first round will be a colossal waste of a top pick. Solid but not at all a first rounder.

 

[djcolts]

If the Dayton Daily News is correct - the Colts could take Justin Durant at pick #32. That would be called the reach of the 1st round by most experts pretty much no matter who else is picked in round 1.

 

[Chunky Soup]

Ted Ginn Jr.

 

[harrycarey]

If the Dayton Daily News is correct - the Colts could take Justin Durant at pick #32. That would be called the reach of the 1st round by most experts pretty much no matter who else is picked in round 1.

What do you think is a possibility through 4 rounds for the Colts?1: Durant (Beason if he falls)3a: Mebane/Mcbean (seem to be the fits)3b: AJ Davis/ David Irons/ Michael Coe4a: WR/Returner (Figurs/ Breaston)4b: RB 4c: DE (some tweener)

 

[djcolts]

If the Dayton Daily News is correct - the Colts could take Justin Durant at pick #32. That would be called the reach of the 1st round by most experts pretty much no matter who else is picked in round 1.

What do you think is a possibility through 4 rounds for the Colts?1: Durant (Beason if he falls)3a: Mebane/Mcbean (seem to be the fits)3b: AJ Davis/ David Irons/ Michael Coe4a: WR/Returner (Figurs/ Breaston)4b: RB 4c: DE (some tweener)

That looks pretty much right to me. I think they'll try for a more pure WR that could play the slot instead of a WR/Returner blend (depending on their faith in TJ Rushing as a returner). I think they'd love to get Mike Walker at wr if possible in round 3 or 4.

 

[Weapon of Mass Instruction]

If the Dayton Daily News is correct - the Colts could take Justin Durant at pick #32. That would be called the reach of the 1st round by most experts pretty much no matter who else is picked in round 1.

What do you think is a possibility through 4 rounds for the Colts?1: Durant (Beason if he falls)3a: Mebane/Mcbean (seem to be the fits)3b: AJ Davis/ David Irons/ Michael Coe4a: WR/Returner (Figurs/ Breaston)4b: RB 4c: DE (some tweener)

That looks pretty much right to me. I think they'll try for a more pure WR that could play the slot instead of a WR/Returner blend (depending on their faith in TJ Rushing as a returner). I think they'd love to get Mike Walker at wr if possible in round 3 or 4.

Hey, guys, no offense but this discussion is WAY off topic.

 

[QUEZILLA]

The Buc's pick could be considered a reach at #4 if it's not a QB, JT, CJ, or AP. So pretty much if they select D with #4 it's going to be a "reach" according to guys like Kiper. Possible "reaches", Carriker, Okoye, Adams, Landry.

 

[Weapon of Mass Instruction]

The Buc's pick could be considered a reach at #4 if it's not a QB, JT, CJ, or AP. So pretty much if they select D with #4 it's going to be a "reach" according to guys like Kiper. Possible "reaches", Carriker, Okoye, Adams, Landry.

Good point.

 

[Reaper]

Levi Brown - I hope he goes to Miami.

 

[djcolts]

If the Dayton Daily News is correct - the Colts could take Justin Durant at pick #32. That would be called the reach of the 1st round by most experts pretty much no matter who else is picked in round 1.

What do you think is a possibility through 4 rounds for the Colts?1: Durant (Beason if he falls)3a: Mebane/Mcbean (seem to be the fits)3b: AJ Davis/ David Irons/ Michael Coe4a: WR/Returner (Figurs/ Breaston)4b: RB 4c: DE (some tweener)

That looks pretty much right to me. I think they'll try for a more pure WR that could play the slot instead of a WR/Returner blend (depending on their faith in TJ Rushing as a returner). I think they'd love to get Mike Walker at wr if possible in round 3 or 4.

Hey, guys, no offense but this discussion is WAY off topic.

Sorry - I was just answering his question.

 

[Bri]

First 3 rounds are

15 first rounders or so

20 second rounders

and 60 or so 3rd rounders

It's not so far fetched or different than normal though

Maybe ya think there's 20 or even 25 in the first but it' not 32.

 

[Bri]

I don't like Safeties going as early as they've been

Thomas doesn't seem like the next Ogden or Munoz to me but the next very good player

 

[QUEZILLA]

First 3 rounds are15 first rounders or so20 second roundersand 60 or so 3rd roundersIt's not so far fetched or different than normal thoughMaybe ya think there's 20 or even 25 in the first but it' not 32.

I assume you are talking about the strength of this class compared to other...

 

[ImTheScientist]

Levi Brown

 

[Bri]

First 3 rounds are15 first rounders or so20 second roundersand 60 or so 3rd roundersIt's not so far fetched or different than normal thoughMaybe ya think there's 20 or even 25 in the first but it' not 32.

I assume you are talking about the strength of this class compared to other...

yes but as I mentioned that's pretty normal

 

[Evilgrin 72]

I see the Vikings, Panthers, and Steelers in spots where they may need to reach. Those are the three points in the top half of round 1 where need and value are very unlikely to intersect.

 

[Buc Dude]

The Buc's pick could be considered a reach at #4 if it's not a QB, JT, CJ, or AP. So pretty much if they select D with #4 it's going to be a "reach" according to guys like Kiper. Possible "reaches", Carriker, Okoye, Adams, Landry.

Actually, I would be fine with Landry @ #4 if JT, & CJ, are gone. If they can trade down 1 or 2 spots & still get him, better still - just can't figure why anyone would trade up to #4 though. Whoever they get it will be "the guy we wanted all along".

 

[Domination]

Forgot one. Posluszny, if taken in the first round will be a colossal waste of a top pick. Solid but not at all a first rounder.

I couldn't disagree with you more. I think Poz is going to be a stud LB for many years, and I think he is actually underrated.

 

[chris1969]

Levi brown at #5 to Arizona

 

[dparker713]

Either of the QBs going in the top 10.

 

[Liltee8869]

How is it nobody has said Marshawn Lynch???

 

[Sabertooth]

The thing about a "reach" is that the team don't necessarily rank the players like the draft pundits do.

The Bills took Whitner last season and everyone gasped. But he appears to be a pretty good player and worth it.

 

[Chaos Commish]

Okoye, without question. I would take a healthy Justin Harrell or a motivated Alan Branch over him every day of the week.

I didn't want to say it because of the way some gush about the kid, but yeah this is a

 

[massraider]

A guy I think in retrospect will look like a reach is Joe Staley.

 

[ericttspikes]

Jamarcus Russell

I'll be surprised if he lasts 6 years in the NFL.

 

[Chaos Commish]

Levi brown at #5 to Arizona

I think this would give the fans grounds for a civil action.

 

[Chaos Commish]

How is it nobody has said Marshawn Lynch???

He's a stud.

 

[Chaos Commish]

A guy I think in retrospect will look like a reach is Joe Staley.

I agree here too. I certainly wouldn't mind developing him as a late 2nd or 3rd round kind of athlete, but he is not what you seek in a round 1 lineman.

 

[Chunky Soup]

Jamarcus RussellI'll be surprised if he lasts 6 years in the NFL.

shtick?

 

[JohnnyU]

Alan Branch will be the biggest reach and bust of this draft.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Jamarcus RussellI'll be surprised if he lasts 6 years in the NFL.

shtick?

I'm not sold on Russell either. Sure, he's got a terrific arm, and has the tools to be a good QB, but I can also see him as a guy who has some success in the right system and then flames out, a la Culpepper. I wouldn't spend the #1 pick on him.

 

[JimboJim]

Just my opinion, but Gaines Adams anywhere in the top 10 and definately in the top 5.

I think his upside is Adawale Oguneyle/KGB with a downside being Jamal Reynolds.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Brady Quinn

I don't really like the fact people give him so many props for being NFL ready now. Does that mean he has less room to grow and we're basically seeing what he has or peaked out in college? If so, he's not going to be much.

I haven't seen Russell nearly as much. I actually think he'll do just as well early as Quinn because of his natural athleticism and size. Sort of like Daunte Culpepper, Byron Leftwhich and Vince Young did. The major problem he has is that he's playing for the Raiders and is behind a horrific offensive line. They can't run the ball and can't protect the QB. For a young QB.......that's horrible news.

 

[ericttspikes]

Jamarcus RussellI'll be surprised if he lasts 6 years in the NFL.

shtick?

Nope. My God, he's fat now. Give this guy $50 million, what's he going to look like then? How many QBs pushing 300lbs can last in the NFL? Whoever gets Jamarcus gets to find out. I say under 6 years. Top 20 money would be worth a flyer, but #1? No way.

 

[The Carnage]

From everything I'm reading, I don't see Gaines Adams being worthy of a top 5 pick. He should be a good player in time, but does he immediately upgrade a defense like say a Julius Peppers? I'm scared the Bucs may end up taking him @ #4.

He's the first one I thought of before scrolling down. Anything above 8 is too soon and that depends on the team that takes him. He could be lower.

 

[Kinger]

From everything I'm reading, I don't see Gaines Adams being worthy of a top 5 pick. He should be a good player in time, but does he immediately upgrade a defense like say a Julius Peppers? I'm scared the Bucs may end up taking him @ #4.

That would prevent Washington from making the mistake, but likely ensure they make it worse by taking Landry. That would be the biggest reach.

 

[Jason Wood]

I think our reactions to this will be much different once the draft transpires. But based on the mocks I've seen and factoring in the "rising stars" chatter that's out there:

*** Ben Grubbs, OG, Auburn

*** Greg Olsen, TE, Miami

*** Jon Beason, LB, Miami

*** Anthony Spencer, DE, Purdue

*** Tedd Ginn Jr., WR, Ohio State

I disagree with Pozlusny being a 1st round reach, he has all the makings of a solid starter at the position for years to come. And I also really disagree with HERD about Okoye. He's already physically dominant to rank as a legit DT prospect, yet at 19 he's surely going to get stronger. Plus, he's as close to brilliant as you'll find at the position. No brainer.

 

[Buc Dude]

From everything I'm reading, I don't see Gaines Adams being worthy of a top 5 pick. He should be a good player in time, but does he immediately upgrade a defense like say a Julius Peppers? I'm scared the Bucs may end up taking him @ #4.

That would prevent Washington from making the mistake, but likely ensure they make it worse by taking Landry. That would be the biggest reach.

Ironic because Landry is the one defensive guy I think the Bucs could justify @ #4 if CJ & JT are gone. Landry projects as a potential leader on D (after Brooks & Barber are gone) and I feel like the D-Line can be addressed in rounds 2 - 3. Safety (and future leadership) are positions of need here. IMO

 

[Jason Wood]

From everything I'm reading, I don't see Gaines Adams being worthy of a top 5 pick. He should be a good player in time, but does he immediately upgrade a defense like say a Julius Peppers? I'm scared the Bucs may end up taking him @ #4.

That would prevent Washington from making the mistake, but likely ensure they make it worse by taking Landry. That would be the biggest reach.

Ironic because Landry is the one defensive guy I think the Bucs could justify @ #4 if CJ & JT are gone. Landry projects as a potential leader on D (after Brooks & Barber are gone) and I feel like the D-Line can be addressed in rounds 2 - 3. Safety (and future leadership) are positions of need here. IMO

Drafting a safety with the 4th overall pick? :X

 

[Weapon of Mass Instruction]

I think our reactions to this will be much different once the draft transpires. But based on the mocks I've seen and factoring in the "rising stars" chatter that's out there:

*** Ben Grubbs, OG, Auburn

*** Greg Olsen, TE, Miami

*** Jon Beason, LB, Miami

*** Anthony Spencer, DE, Purdue

*** Tedd Ginn Jr., WR, Ohio State

I disagree with Pozlusny being a 1st round reach, he has all the makings of a solid starter at the position for years to come. And I also really disagree with HERD about Okoye. He's already physically dominant to rank as a legit DT prospect, yet at 19 he's surely going to get stronger. Plus, he's as close to brilliant as you'll find at the position. No brainer.

I think I just heard Kiper on the Dull Patrick show saying that Spencer may very well be the Defensive ROY this year. Can anyone confirm what I thought I heard?

 

[Buc Dude]

From everything I'm reading, I don't see Gaines Adams being worthy of a top 5 pick. He should be a good player in time, but does he immediately upgrade a defense like say a Julius Peppers? I'm scared the Bucs may end up taking him @ #4.

That would prevent Washington from making the mistake, but likely ensure they make it worse by taking Landry. That would be the biggest reach.

Ironic because Landry is the one defensive guy I think the Bucs could justify @ #4 if CJ & JT are gone. Landry projects as a potential leader on D (after Brooks & Barber are gone) and I feel like the D-Line can be addressed in rounds 2 - 3. Safety (and future leadership) are positions of need here. IMO

Drafting a safety with the 4th overall pick?

Obviously I would prefer to trade down and take Landry but there may be no takers if CJ & JT are gone. I'm just not sold on any of the D-lineman being that much better than what may be available in rounds 2-3. Of course, I've been wrong before.

 

[Reaper]

I think our reactions to this will be much different once the draft transpires. But based on the mocks I've seen and factoring in the "rising stars" chatter that's out there:

*** Ben Grubbs, OG, Auburn

*** Greg Olsen, TE, Miami

*** Jon Beason, LB, Miami

*** Anthony Spencer, DE, Purdue

*** Tedd Ginn Jr., WR, Ohio State

I disagree with Pozlusny being a 1st round reach, he has all the makings of a solid starter at the position for years to come. And I also really disagree with HERD about Okoye. He's already physically dominant to rank as a legit DT prospect, yet at 19 he's surely going to get stronger. Plus, he's as close to brilliant as you'll find at the position. No brainer.

I think I just heard Kiper on the Dull Patrick show saying that Spencer may very well be the Defensive ROY this year. Can anyone confirm what I thought I heard?

Kiper: A guy who I think could be defensive rookie of the year is [defensive end] Anthony Spencer of Purdue. He'll probably be a late first-round or early second-round pick.http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writ...iper/index.html

 

[jurb26]

Pretty much all of the CBs taken in the 1st round will be reaches.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

From everything I'm reading, I don't see Gaines Adams being worthy of a top 5 pick. He should be a good player in time, but does he immediately upgrade a defense like say a Julius Peppers? I'm scared the Bucs may end up taking him @ #4.

That would prevent Washington from making the mistake, but likely ensure they make it worse by taking Landry. That would be the biggest reach.

Ironic because Landry is the one defensive guy I think the Bucs could justify @ #4 if CJ & JT are gone. Landry projects as a potential leader on D (after Brooks & Barber are gone) and I feel like the D-Line can be addressed in rounds 2 - 3. Safety (and future leadership) are positions of need here. IMO

Drafting a safety with the 4th overall pick?

Unconventional to be sure, but if the Steelers had drafted Polamalu #4 overall, I wouldn't think that was a poor pick in retrospect. Same with Baltimore and Ed Reed - and I think Landry has as much talent as either of those guys, maybe more. If he's not a head case like Sean Taylor, he could be one of the best defensive players in football in pretty short order. I think he's as close to can't miss as it gets (except for Calvin Johnson)FWIW, I agree with you 100% on Posluszny and also think Grubbs is going to be a star. I wouldn't mid one bit if Pittsburgh traded down a few spots and drafted Grubbs.

 

[Donnybrook]

A guy I think in retrospect will look like a reach is Joe Staley.

He made Jay Moore look like a star.

 

[mcintyre1]

A guy I think in retrospect will look like a reach is Joe Staley.

He made Jay Moore look like a star.

Jay Moore will suprise people. He's really not a bad DE, but Carriker has been getting all of the press.