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What Will It Take For The US To Be Competitive In World Cup? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Joe Bryant
- Start date
Just to say thanks for the good discussion on this. It's helpful. I've asked a few friends and they just say we have been competitive and shrug. Thanks for the insights.
That's a fair point. I do think it's important though to weigh out the plan. And weigh out some negatives. I mean we can do all kinds of bad things (PEDs and more) to be better. But we don't.
So weighing the kids that are cast off is not an unreasonable thing to factor in. It's why I've been asking how other countries handle it.
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
Outside of this discussion, I think you are going to see the sport in your area spike in popularity once they start playing in MLS in a couple of years.
It might not reach the massive levels like in Atlanta or Seattle but everything seems to be in place for another hugely successful expansion to Nashville.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
Too much pay to play. End that, have the US government (or some other, very very rich partner) put money into academies, training, and scouting kids. Build a truly national soccer development system that does not depend on the financial resources of parents.
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
It needs to gain popularity and become a money maker. Think about it - you hear about NCAA issues all the time with football and basketball. When was the last time you heard about a soccer player's family getting money from an agent to steer the kid in a certain direction. Until that happens, the truly elite athletes will be attracted to other sports.
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
I am unsure what happens in other countries.
Some MLS teams have built in plans to help pay for college for their kids that skip college but don't make it in the pros. Something like that would be great to see on a larger scale but it is also a massive expense.
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
it happens all the time in the US, especially with our latino kids.
The Liga MX teams (Mexico's top league) regularly approaches parents and sways kids to go south of the border for their development and eventual pro play.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
And some of those kids decide to pay for a Latin American nation and not the US, even though they were born in the US, raised in the US, and feel just as American (if not more) than their other nationality. Those kids are being developed by academies in other countries because ours aren't good enough yet. When Mexico has better training facilities, quality of coaching, and a better path to becoming a pro, there's something lacking in the US.
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
I will a touch more to this.
Many of those kids are going south because it is more related to culture. The parents understand the Mexican culture as relates to soccer better than the American model. And whether it is true or not, the constant theme we hear from the American latino community is that they are being over looked by soccer in the US (too small appears to be the still most
reason we hear, followed closely by too expensive).
roadkill1292
Footballguy
"Why is Joe Bryant shoving soccer down our throats?"
Ok, this will make my fellow soccer dorks cringe so I promise not to belabor the point. But the English Football Association has 7,000 clubs in its pyramid. Which means that every crossroads town in the country has a club playing at some level and many of those have youth programs attached. It not only adds up to a continual showcase of new talent coming through the pipeline but places for that talent to move up to as well. But mostly it means that the fabric and soul of the game is embedded in every Altoona and Storm Lake in the country -- it's their Friday Night Lights and Saturday afternoon Gameday all in one. It's THE game on the weekend, no matter where you live or what level your local plays at.
A stronger MLS will help but we'll never be as good as anyone else on a consistent level with two dozen serious clubs when we should have 30 thousand. And every little boy in town dreaming of playing for the home team.
[endrant]
Ok, this will make my fellow soccer dorks cringe so I promise not to belabor the point. But the English Football Association has 7,000 clubs in its pyramid. Which means that every crossroads town in the country has a club playing at some level and many of those have youth programs attached. It not only adds up to a continual showcase of new talent coming through the pipeline but places for that talent to move up to as well. But mostly it means that the fabric and soul of the game is embedded in every Altoona and Storm Lake in the country -- it's their Friday Night Lights and Saturday afternoon Gameday all in one. It's THE game on the weekend, no matter where you live or what level your local plays at.
A stronger MLS will help but we'll never be as good as anyone else on a consistent level with two dozen serious clubs when we should have 30 thousand. And every little boy in town dreaming of playing for the home team.
[endrant]
AcerFC
Footballguy
Here is the blueprint
https://trainingground.guru/articles/coaching-revolution-that-took-belgium-to-top-of-world
But very difficult for this to happen here. Parents are crazy. I have seen it on my daughters team and on my JV and Varsity teams.
No way they would be ok with Johnny playing down or playing for nothing. It is unfortunate because it is simple and effective.
https://trainingground.guru/articles/coaching-revolution-that-took-belgium-to-top-of-world
But very difficult for this to happen here. Parents are crazy. I have seen it on my daughters team and on my JV and Varsity teams.
No way they would be ok with Johnny playing down or playing for nothing. It is unfortunate because it is simple and effective.
Chaka
Footballguy
msommer
Footballguy
He goes to college/learns a trade/finds a job and gets on with his life.
How valuable is that college degree you got with a C average in "sports management" on a full scholarship, when you weren't drafted in your chosen sport?
I'd say more valuable than no degree.
I think I'm asking more what newlyretired is saying. He's saying there's a cost to casting off the kids that fail. I'm wondering what that cost is. And I'm not someone adamant about kids going to college. Just wondering how other countries see it.
msommer
Footballguy
It happens in Europe as well. Ajax Amsterdam for instance has been very successful in churning out young Danes for their first team
msommer
Footballguy
Elsewhere it is possible to start college later. It does not have to be right after high school (if that is indeed a requirement in the US).
Thanks @roadkill1292
How can there be enough talent to fill 30,000 clubs though?
For MLS, how do we make that stronger?
And @roadkill1292, I'm just trying to set up the futbolguys.com domain I've been sitting on for years... 
roadkill1292
Footballguy
Pay to play hurts us in its exclusionary results. It also hurts us in that those programs seem to spend a lot of time playing games which, ironically, may be a good thing in the long term because it's a sport that people can play beyond their school years -- and that goes to building a grass roots love of the game. But what we don't do very well along with this is identify the one percenters who would be steered into club-affiliated academies in Europe. Academies where they don't play nearly as many games against outside competition. Instead, they focus on skills and it's why we have Scooby pining for just one American player who could handle the ball the way every player on the Spanish national team can.
Chaka
Footballguy
Remember when Heavyweight boxing was pretty much the ultimate "Can't miss" sporting event?
I don't think I have paid to see a heavyweight bout since Lennox Lewis retired. Aside from the Klitschko brothers I cannot name a single heavyweight boxer since then.
Obviously the shadyness of the sport in general has contributed to the decline in boxing popularity overall but that reasoning crosses all weight classes. The problem with the heavyweight division became health, the best of the big strong heavyweights realized that the money wasn't worth getting the tar knocked out of you constantly. The truly talented athletes who may have excelled at the "sweet science" have veered towards other sports. This logic applies to all weight classes of course but anyone under light heavyweight wasn't pursuing American football as an alternative.
Football holds a week-over-week dominance/passion over the majority of the American sports population and that will hold, likely, for decades to come. However it has been declining, for a multitude of reasons and eventually the money will follow the same trajectory. For the athletes, as the focus on health and safety increases and the ramifications of banging your armored head into other people day-after-day, year-after-year become increasingly apparent more-and-more athletes will be willing to pursue other options.
Eventually there will be a tipping point where enough elite athletes pursue the real football that fan interest will increase and it will become more lucrative for more of them to consider that path...and so on, and so on, and so on.
roadkill1292
Footballguy
The level of the talent doesn't matter. The 22nd tier in England consists mostly of clubs whose rosters are filled by guys who drink at the same pub. If a high school can field a team, then the community surrounding it can, too. We have 15,000 high schools in this country and four million young people in every age group.
I'll defer the MLS questions to my betters.
For sure.
It's something I think quite a bit about.
It's also why I push back when people howl and hate Goodell for suspending a player for a ugly illegal hit.
So these are like rec softball teams? I thought you meant these were more semi pros. Or am I missing what you're saying?
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
I just meant that paying for every kid who does not make the pro's college is expensive because college is expensive.
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
99% of those are just amateur sides. Nothing more.
To make MLS stronger you just need time. The league is significantly stronger than it was 10 years ago. Hopefully we can say the same thing ten years from now. The growth profile certainly seems to indicate things are likely to continue to improve.
roadkill1292
Footballguy
There are 22 (I might be off by a couple) tiers of competition from the Premier League to the pub teams. They start getting really amateur down around Tier 7 (corrections welcomed). Maybe the thing I'm skipping over is that there isn't competition from high school and college sports -- which is another topic I could rant about -- so if you like sports, one of those 7,000 club teams, and maybe a couple of them, are who you support (if you're not actually playing). There is a national structure to the whole thing that we haven't come very close to replicating.
msommer
Footballguy
Sort of. But the whole thing is tiered so everyone is in a regular competition with clubs at similar level. And this happens down to 5-6 years of age. For adults there is the possibility to avance a tier, or to be relegated to the tier below.
Clubs will scout teen players in lower tiers and recruit them (sometimes to semi pro contracts),
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
you have to love the FFA. Numerous people in thread mention how this is one of the worst takes possible and yet someone just jumps in with out reading and propagates the myth.
msommer
Footballguy
Also, there is no draft at one magical time after college graduation. Players move up (or down) the ranks in the clubs as they perform (or rather are seen to perform).
As for High School sports. All players that become good play during their high school years. They just don't play for their school - they play for their team, i.e .the club they are a member of (if amateur) or with whom they have a contract (pro and semi pro). Each club will have several tiers where they compete and each player is slotted in where he fits, and he can move up or down as talent and opportunity dictates
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
has to be culture and the importance of the sport in said country.
You have countries like Belgium, Uruguay, and Holland that produce a fantastic amount of talent no matter how small their population is and countries like China who can't produce even a single player of quality.
Short Corner
Footballguy
TLEF316
Footballguy
Despite missing this world cup, we're undoubtedly trending in the right direction in terms of player development.
1) MLS continues to build a well funded academy system, which takes us closer to eliminating the financial barriers for the elite talent. But the commitment and structure of the best clubs (like Dallas) needs to be replicated everywhere and we need to do more to make sure that certain pockets of kids (both geographically and culturally) dont fall through the cracks. This includes embracing the first generation Hispanic community, which we haven't done nearly as well as we should (which causes us to lose potential players to Mexico). We also need to make sure we find a way for these clubs to still reap the rewards of their investment if their elite academy products bail for Europe before contributing to the parent club. (Like what has happened a few times at Dallas, mostly notably with Weston Mckennie)
2) We're placing more and more kids at good clubs in Europe while they're still young enough to get the full benefit of that environment. By the time they're 19 or 20, its too late. This isn't like basketball or football where a freak athlete like Giannis Antetokounmpo or Jimmy Graham can start seriously playing the sport at 16 and become an elite player. Soccer aint like that.
3) These kids that we place at these clubs are moving up the ranks and getting playing time in their late teens/early 20's. The current crop in Europe (while there are some holes in terms of positions) are all looking pretty promising. Unfortunately, we would need 10 players as good as the best player we've ever produced (Pulisic, assuming he develops like we think he will over the next 4-8 years) to have a prayer of MAYBE winning a WC.
So those are good things. The bad things (many of which I dont see getting "fixed" in my lifetime)
1) Due to our geographic size, kids are ALWAYS going to get missed.
2) Soccer will never be the first choice sport like it is everywhere else. I'm no longer of the opinion that we need the Odell Beckhams of the world (just giving him as an example, as he played soccer) to make us better, but it would sure help if more of them were in the pipeline. Unfortunately, that's not likely to happen.
And the big one......Our culture is simply too sensitive towards the self-esteem of children to ever develop the necessary ruthlessness needed to produce a world class team on any sort of consistent basis. Everywhere else in the world, you start playing when you're 5 or 6 (if not earlier) get into an academy (if you're good enough) and the moment they realize you aren't good enough, you get sent packing. Doesn't matter if you're 7 or 17. Once they realize you are no longer worth their investment, (in terms of eventually being able to help the pro team) they dont care what happens to you. No orange slices, no participation trophies, No JV team. Its survival of the fittest. Sink or Swim.
The goal of every other serious soccer playing country in the world is to develop star players (not win youth games) capable of helping the team (either the senior club team or the national team) win at the highest level. And those that cant help do that are cast aside. That wont ever happen in the US to the extent that it needs to because our culture (the parents) wont allow it. Everyone here thinks their kid is a special little boy and if they get some $$ for college, they'll consider their soccer journey to be a great success.
Obviously "competitive" is a subjective term. Could the the US make a fluky run and make a semi-final in the next 20 years? Sure. Hell, we'll be hosting 8 years from now and I dont think its unreasonable to hope that by that point, we could have a team as good as the one that Russia just threw out there.
But if "competitive" means that we have a legitimate chance to win? Or to have the mentality that anything less than say, the semifinals would be a disappointment? I dont see that happening any time soon. Mostly because of the issue noted above. While we have improved, other teams are doing so as well. And they have headstarts in terms of attitude and infrastructure (more about training methods and tactical understanding than financial resources) that I dont see us making up in my lifetime.
1) MLS continues to build a well funded academy system, which takes us closer to eliminating the financial barriers for the elite talent. But the commitment and structure of the best clubs (like Dallas) needs to be replicated everywhere and we need to do more to make sure that certain pockets of kids (both geographically and culturally) dont fall through the cracks. This includes embracing the first generation Hispanic community, which we haven't done nearly as well as we should (which causes us to lose potential players to Mexico). We also need to make sure we find a way for these clubs to still reap the rewards of their investment if their elite academy products bail for Europe before contributing to the parent club. (Like what has happened a few times at Dallas, mostly notably with Weston Mckennie)
2) We're placing more and more kids at good clubs in Europe while they're still young enough to get the full benefit of that environment. By the time they're 19 or 20, its too late. This isn't like basketball or football where a freak athlete like Giannis Antetokounmpo or Jimmy Graham can start seriously playing the sport at 16 and become an elite player. Soccer aint like that.
3) These kids that we place at these clubs are moving up the ranks and getting playing time in their late teens/early 20's. The current crop in Europe (while there are some holes in terms of positions) are all looking pretty promising. Unfortunately, we would need 10 players as good as the best player we've ever produced (Pulisic, assuming he develops like we think he will over the next 4-8 years) to have a prayer of MAYBE winning a WC.
So those are good things. The bad things (many of which I dont see getting "fixed" in my lifetime)
1) Due to our geographic size, kids are ALWAYS going to get missed.
2) Soccer will never be the first choice sport like it is everywhere else. I'm no longer of the opinion that we need the Odell Beckhams of the world (just giving him as an example, as he played soccer) to make us better, but it would sure help if more of them were in the pipeline. Unfortunately, that's not likely to happen.
And the big one......Our culture is simply too sensitive towards the self-esteem of children to ever develop the necessary ruthlessness needed to produce a world class team on any sort of consistent basis. Everywhere else in the world, you start playing when you're 5 or 6 (if not earlier) get into an academy (if you're good enough) and the moment they realize you aren't good enough, you get sent packing. Doesn't matter if you're 7 or 17. Once they realize you are no longer worth their investment, (in terms of eventually being able to help the pro team) they dont care what happens to you. No orange slices, no participation trophies, No JV team. Its survival of the fittest. Sink or Swim.
The goal of every other serious soccer playing country in the world is to develop star players (not win youth games) capable of helping the team (either the senior club team or the national team) win at the highest level. And those that cant help do that are cast aside. That wont ever happen in the US to the extent that it needs to because our culture (the parents) wont allow it. Everyone here thinks their kid is a special little boy and if they get some $$ for college, they'll consider their soccer journey to be a great success.
Obviously "competitive" is a subjective term. Could the the US make a fluky run and make a semi-final in the next 20 years? Sure. Hell, we'll be hosting 8 years from now and I dont think its unreasonable to hope that by that point, we could have a team as good as the one that Russia just threw out there.
But if "competitive" means that we have a legitimate chance to win? Or to have the mentality that anything less than say, the semifinals would be a disappointment? I dont see that happening any time soon. Mostly because of the issue noted above. While we have improved, other teams are doing so as well. And they have headstarts in terms of attitude and infrastructure (more about training methods and tactical understanding than financial resources) that I dont see us making up in my lifetime.
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AAABatteries
Footballguy
Youth development/coaching.
Question. I understand what @roadkill1292 and others are saying I think about club teams and how talent doesn't matter. But I keep hearing how the major complaint against MLS is the talent is terrible. How do those reconcile?
The Z Machine
Footballguy
Doing away with the NCAA would also help.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
http://www.soccerstreets.org/station-soccer-play/
Soccer field at MARTA train station in downtown Atlanta
@Joe Bryant
The talent is not terrible. its pretty good. Its not a top-4 league in the world - but there is a lot of room between Top-4 and Terrible. MLS is closer to Top-4 than to Terrible
AAABatteries
Footballguy
Maybe you have to have a large penner to be good at soccer.
/hottake
@El Floppo
@Sweatpants Boner Man
msommer
Footballguy
I'm not sure about this one, at least as it pertains to Denmark.
As I mention all clubs have several tiers of players, also knowing that people develop at different speeds - you also have "feeder" clubs that develop players for the top league teams. On the lower levels of teams they try to get everyone involved, because the clubs also have a social aspect to them, particularly in the youth ranks. It's not all sink or swim. But there is an understanding that the team you play for is there to win, so everyone better do their best in every game. Perhaps being disassociated from the school system is a benefit in that regard as well.
msommer
Footballguy
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
anyone who says the talent is terrible does not follow the league even in the smallest bit. It is one of those hot takes that people who have no knowledge of a subject like to spout just so that they think they are being heard.
MLS is far from a top league but so are 99.9% of the leagues in the world. Read this twice if you have to.
After the top 4 or 5 leagues, it is just a jumbled mess of various talent levels.
I can safely speak from a point of knowledge that no league in the world has seen its talent pool grow more than MLS has in the last ten years. It has come a long way and has a long way to go to get close to a top league.
One thing that might not be understood by many who don't follow either the sport or MLS is that MLS is structured much differently than most leagues. Most leagues around the world push their top talent into 3 or 4 teams where in MLS they follow more of the American model of spreading as much talent as possible around the league.
If MLS followed this policy, its top teams would be significantly better than they are today and perception might change since many judge a league on its best teams and not on the average team.
Underachievers
Footballguy
Damn the rest of the world. Change the rules to promote more scoring. The sport is boring as ####.
msommer
Footballguy
Yes, we should let each goal count for six and then have a penalty on a goal with stilts for a seventh point. That's really make things great!!!
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
This is where I land as well.
Because of the short form nature of the tournament, I feel like we will see a semi finals some day (heck, we were robbed of a chance by a blind ref all the way back in 2002) but it is almost arrogant to think we should expect more when you consider the mountains a country like England has had to over come and they are probably 50 years ahead of us in terms of development.
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
roadkill1292
Footballguy
I don't think you're saying this but FTR I don't think the talent in MLS is terrible. And it's bound to improve, which not many leagues in the world can say. We're not far from raiding South America on a regular basis for some serious talent. Their league structures suffer from horrendous corruption issues and tactically they may be falling behind Europe just a smidge but they still produce tons of guys who can flat out play, guys who would be ok playing in their home hemisphere for decent money.
My problems with MLS are, uh, philosophical in nature.
