What would you rather have? (1 Viewer)

[Chase Stuart]

According to the chart, it's really even.

This is a rough approximation of what the Jets would have to give up for the first pick, or likely the second pick if it's Bush.

I'm sure most people would think it's not a smart idea for the Jets to trade all that for Bush, but I'm surprised at how the numbers add up (I thought it would be more expensive to trade for the #1).

 

[datonn]

1.04, 1.29, 2.04 (pick #35)....100 times out of 100 in the NFL Draft. Not even close!

 

[Chase Stuart]

Here are a few examples:

2005: Alex Smith vs. Cedric Benson, Marlin Jackson and Reggie Brown

2004: Eli Manning vs. Phillip Rivers, Michael Jenkins and Igor Olshansky

2003: Carson Palmer vs. Dewayne Robertson, Nick Barnett and Charles Tillman

2002: David Carr vs. Mike Williams, Marc Colombo and Kalimba Edwards

2001: Mike Vick vs. Justin Smith, Ryan Pickett and Alge Crumpler

2000: Courtney Brown vs. Peter Warrick, R. Jay Soward and John Engleberger

1999: Tim Couch vs. Edgerrin James, Dimitrius Underwood and Barry Gardner

1998: Peyton Manning vs. Charles Woodson, John Avery and Tony Parrish

1997: Orlando Pace vs. Peter Boulware, Chris Canty, and Juan Roque

1996: Keyshawn Johnson vs. Jonathon Ogden, Jamain Stephens and Mike Alstott

 

[LawFitz]

Here are a few examples:

2005: Alex Smith vs. Cedric Benson, Marlin Jackson and Reggie Brown

2004: Eli Manning vs. Phillip Rivers, Michael Jenkins and Igor Olshansky

2003: Carson Palmer vs. Dewayne Robertson, Nick Barnett and Charles Tillman

2002: David Carr vs. Mike Williams, Marc Colombo and Kalimba Edwards

2001: Mike Vick vs. Justin Smith, Ryan Pickett and Alge Crumpler

2000: Courtney Brown vs. Peter Warrick, R. Jay Soward and John Engleberger

1999: Tim Couch vs. Edgerrin James, Dimitrius Underwood and Barry Gardner

1998: Peyton Manning vs. Charles Woodson, John Avery and Tony Parrish

1997: Orlando Pace vs. Peter Boulware, Chris Canty, and Juan Roque

1996: Keyshawn Johnson vs. Jonathon Ogden, Jamain Stephens and Mike Alstott

How about...2006: Reggie Bush vs. D'Brick, Jason Allen and Demeco Ryans

Hmmm. If I'm the Texans I'd go with the latter.

And I luv Bush.

Reggie's cool too.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Here are a few examples:

2005: Alex Smith vs. Cedric Benson, Marlin Jackson and Reggie Brown

2004: Eli Manning vs. Phillip Rivers, Michael Jenkins and Igor Olshansky

2003: Carson Palmer vs. Dewayne Robertson, Nick Barnett and Charles Tillman

2002: David Carr vs. Mike Williams, Marc Colombo and Kalimba Edwards

2001: Mike Vick vs. Justin Smith, Ryan Pickett and Alge Crumpler

2000: Courtney Brown vs. Peter Warrick, R. Jay Soward and John Engleberger

1999: Tim Couch vs. Edgerrin James, Dimitrius Underwood and Barry Gardner

1998: Peyton Manning vs. Charles Woodson, John Avery and Tony Parrish

1997: Orlando Pace vs. Peter Boulware, Chris Canty, and Juan Roque

1996: Keyshawn Johnson vs. Jonathon Ogden, Jamain Stephens and Mike Alstott

Here would be my rough, quick evaluation.2004, 2005: Too early to tell

2003: #1 Pick

2002: Ugly all the way around, as neither Colombo nor Williams made a positive impact. Probably a slight edge to #1 pick here, as Edwards is a good pass rushing specialist.

2001: Another very close way, as all three have been at least decent. Probably a push.

2000: Ugly all the way around, especially Underwood. But warrick had a few good games in him so I'd give the group the edge.

1999: Blowout for the group.

1998: Blowout for the #1 pick.

1997: #1 Pick

1996: Group

Three years the #1 pick was the clear winner -- Pace, Palmer and Manning. Two years the group was the clear winner, led by Edge and Ogden. Two years seem too early to tell. The other three years are all debatable.

In general, it looks like a push to me.

 

[Chase Stuart]

1.01 [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]

1.04, 1.29, 2.04 (pick #35) [ 14 ] ** [100.00%]

Total Votes: 14

Interesting results so far.

The draft calculator, and history, don't indicate that it's anywhere near as one-sided.

 

[slayer666]

1.01    [ 0 ]   ** [0.00%]

1.04, 1.29, 2.04 (pick #35)  [ 11 ]  ** [100.00%]

Total Votes: 11

Interesting results so far.

The draft calculator, and history, don't indicate that it's anywhere near as one-sided.

The team drafting 1.01 normally has many holes to fill. You move down 3 spots to 1.04 and get 2 more players in the top 35. Seems like a no brainer to me regardless what the NFL chart says.

 

[trader jake]

1.01 [ 0 ] [0.00%]

1.04, 1.29, 2.04 (pick #35) [ 26 ] [100.00%]

 

[Faust]

1.01 [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]

1.04, 1.29, 2.04 (pick #35) [ 14 ] ** [100.00%]

Total Votes: 14

Interesting results so far.

The draft calculator, and history, don't indicate that it's anywhere near as one-sided.

Armchair drafters. Everyone (including me) feels that they would all hit on superstar players with the other three picks, making them look like geniuses with the three picks vs. picking at 1.01

 

[Kleck.]

1.01 [ 0 ] [0.00%]

1.04, 1.29, 2.04 (pick #35) [ 38 ] [100.00%]

Nice poll.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

1.01 [ 0 ] [0.00%]

1.04, 1.29, 2.04 (pick #35) [ 38 ] [100.00%]

Nice poll.

There is validity.

From the NFL Chart:

1 = 3000 points

4 = 1800

29 = 640

35 = 550

So according to that valuation, it is 3000 vs. 2990. (0.33% difference).

I'm wondering how GMs would answer this.

 

[my man otis]

Here are a few examples:

2005: Alex Smith vs. Cedric Benson, Marlin Jackson and Reggie Brown

2004: Eli Manning vs. Phillip Rivers, Michael Jenkins and Igor Olshansky

2003: Carson Palmer vs. Dewayne Robertson, Nick Barnett and Charles Tillman

2002: David Carr vs. Mike Williams, Marc Colombo and Kalimba Edwards

2001: Mike Vick vs. Justin Smith, Ryan Pickett and Alge Crumpler

2000: Courtney Brown vs. Peter Warrick, R. Jay Soward and John Engleberger

1999: Tim Couch vs. Edgerrin James, Dimitrius Underwood and Barry Gardner

1998: Peyton Manning vs. Charles Woodson, John Avery and Tony Parrish

1997: Orlando Pace vs. Peter Boulware, Chris Canty, and Juan Roque

1996: Keyshawn Johnson vs. Jonathon Ogden, Jamain Stephens and Mike Alstott

Here would be my rough, quick evaluation.2004, 2005: Too early to tell

2003: #1 Pick

2002: Ugly all the way around, as neither Colombo nor Williams made a positive impact. Probably a slight edge to #1 pick here, as Edwards is a good pass rushing specialist.

2001: Another very close way, as all three have been at least decent. Probably a push.

2000: Ugly all the way around, especially Underwood. But warrick had a few good games in him so I'd give the group the edge.

1999: Blowout for the group.

1998: Blowout for the #1 pick.

1997: #1 Pick

1996: Group

Three years the #1 pick was the clear winner -- Pace, Palmer and Manning. Two years the group was the clear winner, led by Edge and Ogden. Two years seem too early to tell. The other three years are all debatable.

In general, it looks like a push to me.

I would agree. I read the thread before voting and this changed it. Crapshoot either way. I guess you could argue that since it's a crapshoot you'd rather have three players that may be solid rather than just betting on one, but the chance that the #1 turns into another Peyton really makes it worth the risk.Here's to the Jets front office now trading for the #2 pick overall...

 

[TLEF316]

i think the chart is overrated. How can you properly value a pick without taking into account the players in the draft class?

would anyone argue that the # 1 pick last year was worth the same as it is this year?

 

[Chase Stuart]

1.01 [ 0 ] ** [0.00%]

1.04, 1.29, 2.04 (pick #35) [ 46 ] ** [100.00%]

Total Votes: 46

Very interested at the results so far. I think Faust's explanation is right on. Past history certainly doesn't show it being anywhere near this lopsided.

 

[Texasmouth]

1999: Tim Couch vs. Edgerrin James, Dimitrius Underwood and Barry Gardner

I'll take Edge over the other three combined, you could even throw in the other first round picks of the Brown for the next couple of years.

 

[GregR_2]

i think the chart is overrated. How can you properly value a pick without taking into account the players in the draft class?

would anyone argue that the # 1 pick last year was worth the same as it is this year?

Well, it's overrated if you treat it like it's a rule instead of a guide. Like anything else demand is going to determine the price. The more teams that want to trade up, the higher one of them will have to pay for the trade.The chart is just a guideline of what values picks tended to have in past trades.

 

[Aaronur]

Commenting on past history, who is to say that a team that traded would take those players. Really you should look at all the players drafted between the picks as the group that they might have picked. It is flawed to say that they would have had these guys because maybe they would have picked someone else who turned out better. That is why I would say give me three pretty high picks for the price of one.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Commenting on past history, who is to say that a team that traded would take those players. Really you should look at all the players drafted between the picks as the group that they might have picked. It is flawed to say that they would have had these guys because maybe they would have picked someone else who turned out better. That is why I would say give me three pretty high picks for the price of one.

Isn't it just as easy to say they could have turned out worse?