What's going on with Carolina? (1 Viewer)

[fightingillini]

Also how Rivera didn't go for it vs the falcons is beyond me...

Absolutely stupid call by Rivera. You're leading ATL by 1. You have 4th and less than 1 yard. You have a big, strong, athletic QB in Cam. Cam makes the 1st down there maybe 80% of the time or more. Game over. Even if Cam falls short, ATL still has to go 30-35 yards to get into field goal range. Punting gives the ball on average at the 10-15 yard line, giving an elite offense and 1:30 or so on the clock a chance to get into field goal range. I would estimate ATL has about a 50/50 chance starting at the 15 yard line to get it into field goal range, and 85% chance of making it, for a total chance of 58% of CAR winning the game. If CAR goes for it, they have a 80% of winnning it by making it on 4th down, and if they miss, ATL has about a 70% of getting it into field goal range + 85% chance of making it, so CAR wins about 38% of time when they miss the 4th down. Total odds IMO is 80% + .20*.38 = 87%.so IMO 58% chance of winning by punting, 87% chance of winning by going for it. Easy call to me.CAR played not to lose......

 

[FDC]

The one weak link on the O-Line is Geoff Hangartner...

And just depth. When Bell was out vs NY it was ugly (which everyone overreacts to because it was primetime)

 

[FDC]

Also how Rivera didn't go for it vs the falcons is beyond me...

Absolutely stupid call by Rivera. You're leading ATL by 1. You have 4th and less than 1 yard. You have a big, strong, athletic QB in Cam. Cam makes the 1st down there maybe 80% of the time or more. Game over. Even if Cam falls short, ATL still has to go 30-35 yards to get into field goal range. Punting gives the ball on average at the 10-15 yard line, giving an elite offense and 1:30 or so on the clock a chance to get into field goal range. I would estimate ATL has about a 50/50 chance starting at the 15 yard line to get it into field goal range, and 85% chance of making it, for a total chance of 58% of CAR winning the game. If CAR goes for it, they have a 80% of winnning it by making it on 4th down, and if they miss, ATL has about a 70% of getting it into field goal range + 85% chance of making it, so CAR wins about 38% of time when they miss the 4th down. Total odds IMO is 80% + .20*.38 = 87%.so IMO 58% chance of winning by punting, 87% chance of winning by going for it. Easy call to me.CAR played not to lose......

This article claims Cam hurt his index finger vs NY in a goalline jump play which effected recent short yardage decisionshttp://www.charlotteobserver.com/2012/10/08/3586302/analysis-carolina-panthers-limit.html

 

[RUSF18]

Also how Rivera didn't go for it vs the falcons is beyond me...

Absolutely stupid call by Rivera. You're leading ATL by 1. You have 4th and less than 1 yard. You have a big, strong, athletic QB in Cam. Cam makes the 1st down there maybe 80% of the time or more. Game over. Even if Cam falls short, ATL still has to go 30-35 yards to get into field goal range. Punting gives the ball on average at the 10-15 yard line, giving an elite offense and 1:30 or so on the clock a chance to get into field goal range. I would estimate ATL has about a 50/50 chance starting at the 15 yard line to get it into field goal range, and 85% chance of making it, for a total chance of 58% of CAR winning the game. If CAR goes for it, they have a 80% of winnning it by making it on 4th down, and if they miss, ATL has about a 70% of getting it into field goal range + 85% chance of making it, so CAR wins about 38% of time when they miss the 4th down. Total odds IMO is 80% + .20*.38 = 87%.so IMO 58% chance of winning by punting, 87% chance of winning by going for it. Easy call to me.CAR played not to lose......

This article claims Cam hurt his index finger vs NY in a goalline jump play which effected recent short yardage decisionshttp://www.charlotteobserver.com/2012/10/08/3586302/analysis-carolina-panthers-limit.html

And yet they ran him on the previous play. It's also ignoring the tremendous amount of resources the team has put into those RBs. If you're not going to use them then, when will you? As was pointed out above and by pros like Bill Barnwell over at Grantland, that was a monumentally stupid decision. Their odds of winning dropped tremendously once they punted.

 

[FDC]

As was pointed out above and by pros like Bill Barnwell over at Grantland, that was a monumentally stupid decision. Their odds of winning dropped tremendously once they punted.

not reallyhttp://live.advancednflstats.com/index.php?gameid1=2012093004

 

[RUSF18]

As was pointed out above and by pros like Bill Barnwell over at Grantland, that was a monumentally stupid decision. Their odds of winning dropped tremendously once they punted.

not reallyhttp://live.advancednflstats.com/index.php?gameid1=2012093004

I don't know what that site is.

Given his team's particular mix of strengths and weaknesses, and the extremely high stakes of the situation, Rivera's decision to punt is a strong candidate for worst coaching decision of the year. ESPN Stats and Info's win expectancy model estimates that it dropped Carolina's chances of winning from 83.5 percent to 57.4 percent without adjusting for the specific skills of the two teams; chances are that Rivera dropped his team's "true" chances of winning by 35-40 percent by punting.

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8447703/mark-sanchez-getting-better-rest-week-4-newsAnd that's without any adjustments. As in, without the increased likelihood that a team with $50 million in RBs and a monster QB could convert 4th and inches (they're 21 for 24, or 87.5%, since Cam got there), or that one of the most explosive offenses in the league could have increased success moving the ball deep in its own territory.

 

[FDC]

As was pointed out above and by pros like Bill Barnwell over at Grantland, that was a monumentally stupid decision. Their odds of winning dropped tremendously once they punted.

not reallyhttp://live.advancednflstats.com/index.php?gameid1=2012093004

I don't know what that site is.

That is the site Grantland linked to in the article with out the convoluted math. Their chance of winning increased after the punt.