What's Happened to Home Field Advantage? (1 Viewer)

[no3putts]

First of all, I'm no statistician. I'm just an average Excel user who needs to pick the next 3 games correctly.

So, I decided to give myself a little history lesson in Conference Championships. Now, theoretically I'm not sure my sample size is significant enough for anyone to base a decision on. But i figured I've already done the work for my own sake...why not share. What can I say...I'm a giver.

I welcome any theories or discussion.

So, all statistics are based on Conference Championship games from 1980-2007.

Road Winners: 18 out of 56 (32%)

AFC Road Winners: 11 out of 28 (39%)

NFC Road Winners: 7 out of 28 (25%)

Same TimeZone Analysis (Balt @ Pitt)

Total Occurrences: 21 out of 56

Road Winners: 7 out of 21 (33%)

Traveling -2 Timezones (Phil @ Arizona)

Total Occurences: 10 out of 56

Road Winners: 4 Out of 10 (40%)

Decade Analysis: (Found this interesting)

1980-1989: 4 out of 20 Road Winners (20%)

1990-1999: 8 out of 20 Road Winners (40%)

2007-2007: 7 out of 16 Road Winners (43.75%) could obviously trend down or stay flat based on the next four games.

Pittsburgh at home in the AFC Championship:

1-4

Philly on the road in the NFC Championship:

0-1

 

[fred_1_15301]

First of all, I'm no statistician. I'm just an average Excel user who needs to pick the next 3 games correctly. So, I decided to give myself a little history lesson in Conference Championships. Now, theoretically I'm not sure my sample size is significant enough for anyone to base a decision on. But i figured I've already done the work for my own sake...why not share. What can I say...I'm a giver.I welcome any theories or discussion.So, all statistics are based on Conference Championship games from 1980-2007.Road Winners: 18 out of 56 (32%) AFC Road Winners: 11 out of 28 (39%) NFC Road Winners: 7 out of 28 (25%)Same TimeZone Analysis (Balt @ Pitt) Total Occurrences: 21 out of 56 Road Winners: 7 out of 21 (33%)Traveling -2 Timezones (Phil @ Arizona) Total Occurences: 10 out of 56 Road Winners: 4 Out of 10 (40%)Decade Analysis: (Found this interesting) 1980-1989: 4 out of 20 Road Winners (20%) 1990-1999: 8 out of 20 Road Winners (40%) 2007-2007: 7 out of 16 Road Winners (43.75%) could obviously trend down or stay flat based on the next four games.Pittsburgh at home in the AFC Championship:1-4 Philly on the road in the NFC Championship:0-1

With the exception of the 1-4 record, there is not a single stat that you've provided that would indicate Pittsburgh would be expected to lose this game. In all cases, the road team is an underdog. Not sure why you would expect Pittsburgh to lose based on this?

 

[The Jerk]

In all cases, the road team is an underdog.

Obviously not true as Philly is the favorite this year, NE was definitely the favorite in 2004 on the road, and Denver may have been a slight favorite in 1997.Some more info HERE (conference championship stat/trivia) which may or may not be interesting. Definitely some information on the Steelers recent losses. By the way, the Steelers are 4-5 overall at home in the AFCC; the 1-4 is from 1994-present.

 

[The Jerk]

I should also say that knowing trends like 9 out of the past 10 years exactly one road team has won in the conference championship games aren't very helpful. Do you pick both road teams hoping for a split? Do you pick one home and one road?

Bottom line is that each game is an independent event. For every argument that the Steelers AFCC home failures may play on their minds a little bit, you can argue the alternative that the Steelers are going to be that much more determined to win. Their crosstown brethren in Pitt basketball had lost 5 out of 6 Big East Tournament Finals and faced the same team that beat them badly the year before this past March, but they stated their failures in the past actually motivated them to win the title. Maybe; maybe not. Just pick the game on its own merit.

 

[no3putts]

I guess I didn't really tie it all together, maybe it can't be tied all together.This was my thinking:Total Road Winners 18 (22% in Pittsburgh)AFC Road Winners 11 (36% in Pittsburgh)Road Winners Same Timezone 7 (29% in Pittsburgh)

First of all, I'm no statistician. I'm just an average Excel user who needs to pick the next 3 games correctly. So, I decided to give myself a little history lesson in Conference Championships. Now, theoretically I'm not sure my sample size is significant enough for anyone to base a decision on. But i figured I've already done the work for my own sake...why not share. What can I say...I'm a giver.I welcome any theories or discussion.So, all statistics are based on Conference Championship games from 1980-2007.Road Winners: 18 out of 56 (32%) AFC Road Winners: 11 out of 28 (39%) NFC Road Winners: 7 out of 28 (25%)Same TimeZone Analysis (Balt @ Pitt) Total Occurrences: 21 out of 56 Road Winners: 7 out of 21 (33%)Traveling -2 Timezones (Phil @ Arizona) Total Occurences: 10 out of 56 Road Winners: 4 Out of 10 (40%)Decade Analysis: (Found this interesting) 1980-1989: 4 out of 20 Road Winners (20%) 1990-1999: 8 out of 20 Road Winners (40%) 2000-2007: 7 out of 16 Road Winners (43.75%) could obviously trend down or stay flat based on the next four games.Pittsburgh at home in the AFC Championship:1-4 Philly on the road in the NFC Championship:0-1

With the exception of the 1-4 record, there is not a single stat that you've provided that would indicate Pittsburgh would be expected to lose this game. In all cases, the road team is an underdog. Not sure why you would expect Pittsburgh to lose based on this?

 

[The Jerk]

Back to the 1-4 Steeler home record in AFCC from 1994-2004:

1994 loss came with Neil O'Donnell as QB.

1997 and 2001 losses came with Kordell Stewart as QB.

All four losses came with Bill Cowher as head coach.

1994 and 1997 losses came at Three Rivers Stadium; no current players are still on the Steeler roster today from either game (I think)

1997 and 2004 losses were to favorites

2001 and 2004 losses were to Patriots

2004 loss had rookie Roethlisberger at QB.

All four losses occurred before the modern Steelers had won a Super Bowl.

All eight of these statements involve aspects of the Steelers that are no longer true and/or significantly different from this year's game.

 

[fred_1_15301]

In all cases, the road team is an underdog.

Obviously not true as Philly is the favorite this year, NE was definitely the favorite in 2004 on the road, and Denver may have been a slight favorite in 1997.Some more info HERE (conference championship stat/trivia) which may or may not be interesting. Definitely some information on the Steelers recent losses. By the way, the Steelers are 4-5 overall at home in the AFCC; the 1-4 is from 1994-present.

I'm not talking about who the favorite is in reality. I'm saying based on the statistics he's provided, the home team has a higher probability of winning no matther how he spins it (i.e. based on every statistic he presented, the home team won more often than the road team). That was my point.

 

[no3putts]

I see your point...I wouldn't say I'm trying to spin it though.

Just that there is a pretty significant chance..more than I would have thought, that one of the home teams is going to loose. The post was really to be more informative..draw your own conclusions.

What has my interest really piques though is pre 1980 data...and wheter or no home field advantage was at or even better than 1980 and we are really seeing a trend to a lessening in home field or if the 80's were the outlier.

In all cases, the road team is an underdog.

Obviously not true as Philly is the favorite this year, NE was definitely the favorite in 2004 on the road, and Denver may have been a slight favorite in 1997.Some more info HERE (conference championship stat/trivia) which may or may not be interesting. Definitely some information on the Steelers recent losses. By the way, the Steelers are 4-5 overall at home in the AFCC; the 1-4 is from 1994-present.

I'm not talking about who the favorite is in reality. I'm saying based on the statistics he's provided, the home team has a higher probability of winning no matther how he spins it (i.e. based on every statistic he presented, the home team won more often than the road team). That was my point.

 

[The Jerk]

I'm not talking about who the favorite is in reality. I'm saying based on the statistics he's provided, the home team has a higher probability of winning no matther how he spins it (i.e. based on every statistic he presented, the home team won more often than the road team). That was my point.

I see. I tend to take things literally, sometimes more than I should. Thanks.

 

[fred_1_15301]

I see your point...I wouldn't say I'm trying to spin it though.

Just that there is a pretty significant chance..more than I would have thought, that one of the home teams is going to loose. The post was really to be more informative..draw your own conclusions.

What has my interest really piques though is pre 1980 data...and wheter or no home field advantage was at or even better than 1980 and we are really seeing a trend to a lessening in home field or if the 80's were the outlier.

In all cases, the road team is an underdog.

Obviously not true as Philly is the favorite this year, NE was definitely the favorite in 2004 on the road, and Denver may have been a slight favorite in 1997.Some more info HERE (conference championship stat/trivia) which may or may not be interesting. Definitely some information on the Steelers recent losses. By the way, the Steelers are 4-5 overall at home in the AFCC; the 1-4 is from 1994-present.

I'm not talking about who the favorite is in reality. I'm saying based on the statistics he's provided, the home team has a higher probability of winning no matther how he spins it (i.e. based on every statistic he presented, the home team won more often than the road team). That was my point.

Even if we are seeing a trend, the bottom line is that the home team still wins more often than the road team. To your point about the odds of a home team losing this weekend, statistically the odds are good. Lets assume that both pittsburgh and arizona had a 70% chance to win (which we know isn't even close to true since Philly is favored and Pittsburgh is only a small favorite). In this scenario, the odds of both Pittsburgh and Arizona winning would be 0.7*0.7 = 49%. Thus, even if both are heavy favorites, one of them is likely to lose.

 

[Mario Kart]

Loose, what?

 

[no3putts]

Also, there are some implied percentages that I didn't really connect the dots on. Like AFC/Same Timezone Roadies make up by far the largest percentile of All road winners. (33%)

 

[Chase Stuart]

I'm not sure what your thread title means.

 

[puckalicious]

Loose, what?

I think they're destined to tight.

 

[Andy Herron]

Loose, what?

I think they're destined to tight.

LOL!

 

[kroyrunner89]

I'm sick of seeing this kind of analysis. What home or road teams have done in years past has absolutely NO bearing on this weekend's games.

 

[puckalicious]

I'm sick of seeing this kind of analysis. What home or road teams have done in years past has absolutely NO bearing on this weekend's games.

You mean if I roll a die 4 times, and it comes up 6 each time, that doesn't mean it will have a higher chance to land on 6 the next roll?