When do the good WR's break out? (1 Viewer)

[TheWinz]

I enjoyed researching the stats for TE's, and decided to do a "when do the good WR's break out thread. My criteria will be similar to TE's, but the PPR PPG will go up. Breakout thresholds will be:
Rookie - 15.0 PPG
2nd year - 15.5 PPG
3rd/4th year - 15.75 PPG
5th year+ - 16.0 PPG
Once again, 10 games will be the minimum to count as a season. I will be going back only to year 2002, because that's how far FBG's data goes. If you were a rookie before 2002 with at least 10 games played, sorry. And yes, if you are already retired/inactive, you only made the list with at least 3 breakout seasons under your belt.

WR's who broke out in their rookie season
Odell Beckham Jr - 24.8 PPG in 2014 - drafted 1.12 - 4 qualifying seasons
Anquan Boldin - 18.0 PPG in 2003 - drafted 2.54 - 4 qualifying seasons
Ja'Marr Chase - 18.0 PPG in 2023 - drafted 1.5 - 3 qualifying seasons
Puka Nacua - 17.6 PPG in 2023 - drafted 5.177 - 1 qualifying season
Michael Thomas - 17.3 PPG in 2016 - drafted 2.47 - 4 qualifying seasons
Marques Colston - 17.1 PPG in 2006 - drafted 7.252 - 4 qualifying seasons
Julio Jones - 17.0 PPG in 2011 - drafted 1.6 - 7 qualifying seasons
Justin Jefferson - 16.9 PPG in 2020 - drafted 1.22 - 4 qualifying seasons
Mike Evans - 16.3 PPG in 2014 - drafted 1.7 - 6 qualifying seasons
Jaylen Waddle - 15.5 PPG in 2021 - drafted 1.6 - 1 qualifying season
Brandon Aiyuk - 15.4 PPG in 2020 - drafted 1.25 - 1 qualifying season
Tank Dell - 15.0 PPG in 2023 - drafted 3.69 - 1 qualifying season

WR's who broke out in their 2nd season
Deebo Samuel - 21.4 PPG in 2021 - drafted 2.36 - 2 qualifying seasons
Larry Fitzgerald - 19.2 PPG in 2005 - drafted 1.3 - 7 qualifying seasons
Allen Robinson - 19.0 PPG in 2015 - drafted 2.61 - 2 qualifying seasons
AJ Green - 18.9 PPG in 2012 - drafted 1.4 - 5 qualifying seasons
Juju Smith-Schuster - 18.6 PPG in 2018 - drafted 2.62 - 1 qualifying season
Calvin Johnson - 17.7 PPG in 2008 - drafted 1.2 - 7 qualifying seasons
Brandon Marshall - 17.6 PPG in 2007 - drafted 4.119 - 6 qualifying seasons
AJ Brown - 17.4 PPG in 2020 - drafted 2.51 - 3 qualifying seasons
DK Metcalf - 17.1 PPG in 2020 - drafted 2.64 - 1 qualifying season
Cooper Kupp - 16.9 PPG in 2019 - drafted 3.69 - 2 qualifying seasons (played only 8 games in 2018)
Greg Jennings - 16.7 PPG in 2007 - drafted 2.52 - 4 qualifying seasons
Amon-Ra St. Brown - 16.7 PPG in 2022 - drafted 4.112 - 2 qualifying seasons
Tyreek Hill - 15.9 PPG in 2017 - drafted 5.165 - 6 qualifying seasons
Brandin Cooks - 15.8 in 2015 - drafted 1.20 - 1 qualifying season
Tee Higgins - 15.6 PPG in 2021 - drafted 2.33 - 1 qualifying season
DJ Moore - 15.5 PPG in 2019 - drafted 1.24 - 2 qualifying seasons

WR's who broke out in their 3rd season
DeAndre Hopkins - 20.6 PPG in 2015 - drafted 1.27 - 5 qualifying seasons
Chris Godwin - 19.6 PPG in 2019 - drafted 3.84 - 3 qualifying seasons
Antonio Brown - 19.3 PPG in 2013 - drafted 6.195 - 6 qualifying seasons (played only 9 games in 2010)
Calvin Ridley - 18.8 PPG in 2020 - drafted 1.26 - 1 qualifying season
Demaryius Thomas - 18.6 PPG in 2012 - drafted 1.22 - 4 qualifying seasons
Keenan Allen - 17.8 PPG in 2017 - drafted 3.76 - 7 qualifying seasons (missed too many games in 2015 & 2106)
CeeDee Lamb - 17.7 PPG in 2022 - drafted 1.17 - 2 qualifying seasons
TY Hilton - 17.4 PPG in 2014 - drafted 3.92 - 3 qualifying seasons
Diontae Johnson - 17.3 PPG in 2021 - drafted 3.66 - 1 qualifying season
Nico Collins - 17.2 PPG in 2023 - drafted 3.89 - 1 qualifying season
Eric Decker - 16.8 PPG in 2012 - drafted 3.87 - 3 qualifying seasons
Tyler Boyd - 15.8 PPG in 2018 - drafted 2.55 - 1 qualifying season

WR's who broke out in their 4th season
Jordy Nelson - 17.8 PPG in 2011 - drafted 2.36 - 4 qualifying seasons
Stefon Diggs - 17.6 PPG in 2018 - drafted 5.146 - 5 qualifying seasons
Wes Welker - 17.6 PPG in 2007 - UDFA - 5 qualifying seasons
Roddy White - 16.8 PPG in 2008 - drafted 1.27 - 5 qualifying seasons
Davante Adams - 15.9 PPG in 2017 - drafted 2.53 - 6 qualifying seasons

WR's who broke out in their 5th season
Andre Johnson - 20.0 PPG in 2008 - drafted 1.3 - 5 qualifying seasons (played only 9 games in 2007)
Adam Thielen - 19.2 PPG in 2018 - UDFA - 2 qualifying seasons (did not play in 2013)

WR's who broke out in their 6th season
Tyler Lockett - 16.6 PPG in 2020 - drafted 3.69 - 1 qualifying season

Thoughts
- More breakouts occurred in season 2 vs 3. Perhaps the 3rd year breakout for WR's is a myth?
- 7 of the 12 rookie breakouts were 1st round draft picks
- 7 of the 16 2nd year breakouts were 2nd round draft picks
- 6 of the 12 3rd year breakouts were 3rd round draft picks
- If you're thinking, boy, that's alot of names. It's kind of watered down, huh? Well, last year Davante Adams finished WR11 with 98/1098/7 and it didn't meet the threshold. The year before, Jaylen Waddle finished WR8 with 75/1356/8 and didn't make it.

Your thoughts?

 

[BobbyLayne]

I understand why your screening criteria didn’t credit ARSB with a rookie breakout season, but man what a 6 game stretch to end the year! Lot of Championship teams had him as their WR3/Flex.

• 67 targets (double digits every wk)
• 51 catches (low was 8)
• 621 YFS
• 6 TDs
• 24.85 ppg / WR3 overall

 

[Gally]

If you are trying to identify when someone "breaks out" it seems they should then continue that level of play to really be a breakout. Then the qualifying seasons are just backing up that it was truly a breakout season. So for a guy like Calvin Ridley that only has one qualifying season did he really "break out"? I would say no. But then that begs the question, how many follow on seasons are needed to say a guy broke out? Three? Four? For me, I would say it should be three more seasons. That gives four seasons of consistent top notch production to say that it was a breakout for that player.

Also, what is the purpose of changing the breakout threshold by having it go up as years go on? That seems to me like moving the goal posts a bit.

 

[eighsse2]

Great stuff. Could be very valuable information. One that stands out to me is Andre Johnson. I was pretty new to fantasy football in his heyday, so I didn't realize the significance of a WR having his four best seasons at 31, 27, 28, and 32 years old. Makes me more hesitant to start devaluing a dynasty WR around 27 years old. Though obviously it's a rare few who are elite in their 30s.

 

[menobrown]

Great stuff. Could be very valuable information. One that stands out to me is Andre Johnson. I was pretty new to fantasy football in his heyday, so I didn't realize the significance of a WR having his four best seasons at 31, 27, 28, and 32 years old. Makes me more hesitant to start devaluing a dynasty WR around 27 years old. Though obviously it's a rare few who are elite in their 30s.

This is a year old, saw a new one floating on twitter/X recently but can't recall where I saw it but probably minimal change in data and this seems pretty pertinent to both the topic of the thread and what you are saying here, this is for all fantasy positions so just scroll down to the WR section. For your purposes the article is less about age and more years of service but you get the idea: https://twitter.com/RyanJ_Heath/status/1695827025297088686

ETA-I put the wrong link earlier: https://www.fantasypoints.com/nfl/articles/2023/age-curves-when-nfl-players-break-out-and-fall-off#/

 

[travdogg]

Some of these guys have correlations that I think have 0 to do with the players themselves and more to do with massive changes (especially at QB) around them, for example:

2012 Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas broke out less due to them suddenly being better, and more Denver going from Tim Tebow to Peyton Manning.
2007 Wes Welker went from Cleo Lemon (remember him?) to Tom Brady.

I think we can throw those guys off the list. Their breakout years are irrelevant.

Great stuff. Could be very valuable information. One that stands out to me is Andre Johnson. I was pretty new to fantasy football in his heyday, so I didn't realize the significance of a WR having his four best seasons at 31, 27, 28, and 32 years old. Makes me more hesitant to start devaluing a dynasty WR around 27 years old. Though obviously it's a rare few who are elite in their 30s.

I've found that 27 is much more likely to be a career season than when the wheels start falling off for top WRs. Guys who are WR1s year in and year out, tend to usually make it to their early 30s before a decline begins, and buying those guys at 28-30 has been a very viable dynasty strategy for me, as they come extremely cheap.

I got Mike Evans for a 2nd round rookie pick (Isaiah Spiller of all people) in 2022 because the person who had him was desperate to get out while he still had value. Same thing happened in mid-2014 getting Larry Fitzgerald for a pick that turned into Dorial Green-Beckham.

I think that's true at all positions (maybe less QB as age doesn't make for motivated sellers as much there, though Brady/Brees were both grossly undervalued the last few years of their careers) that if a guy is truly elite, he tends to be a value as he ages, unless he suffers a major injury.

 

[eighsse2]

Some of these guys have correlations that I think have 0 to do with the players themselves and more to do with massive changes (especially at QB) around them, for example:

2012 Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas broke out less due to them suddenly being better, and more Denver going from Tim Tebow to Peyton Manning.
2007 Wes Welker went from Cleo Lemon (remember him?) to Tom Brady.

I think we can throw those guys off the list. Their breakout years are irrelevant.

Great stuff. Could be very valuable information. One that stands out to me is Andre Johnson. I was pretty new to fantasy football in his heyday, so I didn't realize the significance of a WR having his four best seasons at 31, 27, 28, and 32 years old. Makes me more hesitant to start devaluing a dynasty WR around 27 years old. Though obviously it's a rare few who are elite in their 30s.

I've found that 27 is much more likely to be a career season than when the wheels start falling off for top WRs. Guys who are WR1s year in and year out, tend to usually make it to their early 30s before a decline begins, and buying those guys at 28-30 has been a very viable dynasty strategy for me, as they come extremely cheap.

I got Mike Evans for a 2nd round rookie pick (Isaiah Spiller of all people) in 2022 because the person who had him was desperate to get out while he still had value. Same thing happened in mid-2014 getting Larry Fitzgerald for a pick that turned into Dorial Green-Beckham.

I think that's true at all positions (maybe less QB as age doesn't make for motivated sellers as much there, though Brady/Brees were both grossly undervalued the last few years of their careers) that if a guy is truly elite, he tends to be a value as he ages, unless he suffers a major injury.

And just to be clear, when I said "devaluing a dynasty WR around 27", it's not that I expect the age-27 season to be a dip. Quite the opposite. Only that he has fewer years left in his expected career, versus, say, a 20-year-old Malik Nabers. Just as an example, if I were to somehow know today that Nabers and AJ Brown would both ultimately have very similar career production, I'd rather have Nabers right now. (But the certainty factor for Brown tips the scales his way in reality.) It's in that sense that I begin devaluing a WR around 27.

 

[TheWinz]

If you are trying to identify when someone "breaks out" it seems they should then continue that level of play to really be a breakout. Then the qualifying seasons are just backing up that it was truly a breakout season. So for a guy like Calvin Ridley that only has one qualifying season did he really "break out"? I would say no. But then that begs the question, how many follow on seasons are needed to say a guy broke out? Three? Four? For me, I would say it should be three more seasons. That gives four seasons of consistent top notch production to say that it was a breakout for that player.

Also, what is the purpose of changing the breakout threshold by having it go up as years go on? That seems to me like moving the goal posts a bit.

I agree players need to continue to be studly for it to matter, so I chose a total of 3 seasons. If you notice, the only players with less than 3 seasons are still active, so they have a chance to add to their totals. I expect guys like Tyler Lockett, Allen Robinson, and Juju Smith-Schuster to fall off the list when they retire. But if I set the limit at 3, current studs like CeeDee Lamb and Amon-Ra St. Brown wouldn't be on the list.

As for increasing the threshold as years go on, I did it in the TE thread, so I just did it here. I guess the list would just be longer if I kept 15 PPG for all seasons.

 

[Gally]

As for increasing the threshold as years go on, I did it in the TE thread, so I just did it here. I guess the list would just be longer if I kept 15 PPG for all seasons.

But is that a bad thing? I would think the point is to identify players that meet a threshold you deem as worthy to be considered a "breakout". Moving that seems like it would skew the data a bit but maybe I don't understand what you are really doing with it.

 

[eighsse2]

As for increasing the threshold as years go on, I did it in the TE thread, so I just did it here. I guess the list would just be longer if I kept 15 PPG for all seasons.

But is that a bad thing? I would think the point is to identify players that meet a threshold you deem as worthy to be considered a "breakout". Moving that seems like it would skew the data a bit but maybe I don't understand what you are really doing with it.

I agree it seems arbitrary. But I also think it seems somewhat intuitive, though I don't know exactly why I feel that way. I guess a possible reason is that a rookie having a very solid season is less expected and therefore (intuitively, though I don't know about statistically) indicative of a higher career ceiling. If a guy scores 8.3, 9.3, 15.6 ppg in his first three seasons, and another guy scores 15.6 ppg in his rookie season, and that's all the data I have, I'm more impressed by the rookie and expect a better future out of him.

 

[TheWinz]

As for increasing the threshold as years go on, I did it in the TE thread, so I just did it here. I guess the list would just be longer if I kept 15 PPG for all seasons.

But is that a bad thing? I would think the point is to identify players that meet a threshold you deem as worthy to be considered a "breakout". Moving that seems like it would skew the data a bit but maybe I don't understand what you are really doing with it.

I agree it seems arbitrary. But I also think it seems somewhat intuitive, though I don't know exactly why I feel that way. I guess a possible reason is that a rookie having a very solid season is less expected and therefore (intuitively, though I don't know about statistically) indicative of a higher career ceiling. If a guy scores 8.3, 9.3, 15.6 ppg in his first three seasons, and another guy scores 15.6 ppg in his rookie season, and that's all the data I have, I'm more impressed by the rookie and expect a better future out of him.

Yeah. I really don't know why I chose to increase up to year 5. It just seemed like a good idea. In the end, I am just a stat nerd and wanted to research something. By the way, I am open to digging through any other kind of stats. Got any ideas? Perhaps something like are left-footed kickers more accurate?

 

[eighsse2]

As for increasing the threshold as years go on, I did it in the TE thread, so I just did it here. I guess the list would just be longer if I kept 15 PPG for all seasons.

But is that a bad thing? I would think the point is to identify players that meet a threshold you deem as worthy to be considered a "breakout". Moving that seems like it would skew the data a bit but maybe I don't understand what you are really doing with it.

I agree it seems arbitrary. But I also think it seems somewhat intuitive, though I don't know exactly why I feel that way. I guess a possible reason is that a rookie having a very solid season is less expected and therefore (intuitively, though I don't know about statistically) indicative of a higher career ceiling. If a guy scores 8.3, 9.3, 15.6 ppg in his first three seasons, and another guy scores 15.6 ppg in his rookie season, and that's all the data I have, I'm more impressed by the rookie and expect a better future out of him.

Yeah. I really don't know why I chose to increase up to year 5. It just seemed like a good idea. In the end, I am just a stat nerd and wanted to research something. By the way, I am open to digging through any other kind of stats. Got any ideas? Perhaps something like are left-footed kickers more accurate?

What about simply the best fantasy seasons over the past so many years, for a certain position, and what age the player was for those seasons. Do the best WR seasons happen around 26? 28? Best RB seasons at 23? 26? Regardless of what the player did for other seasons. Probably been done before I guess.

 

[menobrown]

As for increasing the threshold as years go on, I did it in the TE thread, so I just did it here. I guess the list would just be longer if I kept 15 PPG for all seasons.

But is that a bad thing? I would think the point is to identify players that meet a threshold you deem as worthy to be considered a "breakout". Moving that seems like it would skew the data a bit but maybe I don't understand what you are really doing with it.

I agree it seems arbitrary. But I also think it seems somewhat intuitive, though I don't know exactly why I feel that way. I guess a possible reason is that a rookie having a very solid season is less expected and therefore (intuitively, though I don't know about statistically) indicative of a higher career ceiling. If a guy scores 8.3, 9.3, 15.6 ppg in his first three seasons, and another guy scores 15.6 ppg in his rookie season, and that's all the data I have, I'm more impressed by the rookie and expect a better future out of him.

Yeah. I really don't know why I chose to increase up to year 5. It just seemed like a good idea. In the end, I am just a stat nerd and wanted to research something. By the way, I am open to digging through any other kind of stats. Got any ideas? Perhaps something like are left-footed kickers more accurate?

What about simply the best fantasy seasons over the past so many years, for a certain position, and what age the player was for those seasons. Do the best WR seasons happen around 26? 28? Best RB seasons at 23? 26? Regardless of what the player did for other seasons. Probably been done before I guess.

That link I had posted in an earlier response did exactly this but by years of service instead of age.

It was close, growth was not always linear, but that article showed RB's had most fantasy points in year two, both WR's and TE's in year 5. (*that work was done last year, so not sure how much might have changed, probably not a lot)

 

[eighsse2]

As for increasing the threshold as years go on, I did it in the TE thread, so I just did it here. I guess the list would just be longer if I kept 15 PPG for all seasons.

But is that a bad thing? I would think the point is to identify players that meet a threshold you deem as worthy to be considered a "breakout". Moving that seems like it would skew the data a bit but maybe I don't understand what you are really doing with it.

I agree it seems arbitrary. But I also think it seems somewhat intuitive, though I don't know exactly why I feel that way. I guess a possible reason is that a rookie having a very solid season is less expected and therefore (intuitively, though I don't know about statistically) indicative of a higher career ceiling. If a guy scores 8.3, 9.3, 15.6 ppg in his first three seasons, and another guy scores 15.6 ppg in his rookie season, and that's all the data I have, I'm more impressed by the rookie and expect a better future out of him.

Yeah. I really don't know why I chose to increase up to year 5. It just seemed like a good idea. In the end, I am just a stat nerd and wanted to research something. By the way, I am open to digging through any other kind of stats. Got any ideas? Perhaps something like are left-footed kickers more accurate?

What about simply the best fantasy seasons over the past so many years, for a certain position, and what age the player was for those seasons. Do the best WR seasons happen around 26? 28? Best RB seasons at 23? 26? Regardless of what the player did for other seasons. Probably been done before I guess.

That link I had posted in an earlier response did exactly this but by years of service instead of age.

It was close, growth was not always linear, but that article showed RB's had most fantasy points in year two, both WR's and TE's in year 5. (*that work was done last year, so not sure how much might have changed, probably not a lot)

Not exactly. Not that I liked that data any less than what I'm specifying, what you linked may be way more useful, I don't know. I'm saying, just list the top, say, 50 WR seasons from the past 20 years. Then look at what age (or which year of career) those seasons occured.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Break out? Hopefully they don't go to jail in the first place.

 

[TheWinz]

What about simply the best fantasy seasons over the past so many years, for a certain position, and what age the player was for those seasons. Do the best WR seasons happen around 26? 28? Best RB seasons at 23? 26? Regardless of what the player did for other seasons. Probably been done before I guess.

After scrolling around a bit, I think I want to revisit and dig deeper into the correlation between catch percentage and yards per reception. I did this in small quantities in the past, but I think there is something to be had here. For example, I've always thought Tyler Lockett was underrated. His lifetime catch % is 70.8 and his Y/R is 13.1 = 83.9. To compare, here are the lifetime numbers for last year's top 20 WR's:
WR3 - Amon-Ra St. Brown - 73.4/11.4 = 84.8
This is where Lockett fits
WR1 - CeeDee Lamb - 69.5/13.0 = 82.5
WR2 - Tyreek Hill - 68.4/14.1 = 82.5
WR13 - Brandon Aiyuk - 67.4/14.6 = 82.0
WR18 - Adam Thielen - 69.8/12.1 = 81.9
WR16 - Devonta Smith - 68.2/13.2 = 81.4
WR9 - Stefon Diggs - 68.8/12.3 = 81.1
WR8 - Keenan Allen - 69.1/11.6 = 80.7
WR15 - Deebo Samuel - 66.0/14.6 = 80.6
WR14 - Michael Pittman - 69.0/10.9 = 79.9
WR4 - Puka Nacua - 65.6/14.2 = 79.8
WR11 - Ja'Marr Chase - 65.8/13.9 = 79.7
WR5 - AJ Brown - 63.4/15.7 = 79.1
WR12 - Nico Collins - 63.8/14.8 = 78.6
WR19 - Calvin Ridley - 62.8/13.5 = 76.3
WR10 - Davante Adams - 63.8/12.4 = 76.2
WR20 - Amari Cooper - 61.9/14.2 = 76.1
WR6 - DJ Moore - 61.2/14.3 = 75.5
WR17 - Chris Olave - 61.9/13.6 = 75.5
WR7 - Mike Evans - 57.7/15.3 = 73.0

Maybe there is no rhyme or reason to this overall number, but I think there is. I just don't know what it is, or how much weight to give to catch percentage vs yards per catch vs QB completion percentage vs any other criteria. For example, Lamb and Hill are both at 82.5, but I think yards per reception has to play a bigger role than catch percentage, right? And if you say yes, at what percentage is yards per reception more important? Why is Mike Evans so far down the list , but QB's still throw to him? Obviously it's yards per reception. I guess, in the end, I am hunting for a formula. I am willing to do the work, but I need help.

 

[Ray_T]

I enjoyed researching the stats for TE's, and decided to do a "when do the good WR's break out thread. My criteria will be similar to TE's, but the PPR PPG will go up. Breakout thresholds will be:
Rookie - 15.0 PPG
2nd year - 15.5 PPG
3rd/4th year - 15.75 PPG
5th year+ - 16.0 PPG
Once again, 10 games will be the minimum to count as a season. I will be going back only to year 2002, because that's how far FBG's data goes. If you were a rookie before 2002 with at least 10 games played, sorry. And yes, if you are already retired/inactive, you only made the list with at least 3 breakout seasons under your belt.

WR's who broke out in their rookie season
Odell Beckham Jr - 24.8 PPG in 2014 - drafted 1.12 - 4 qualifying seasons
Anquan Boldin - 18.0 PPG in 2003 - drafted 2.54 - 4 qualifying seasons
Ja'Marr Chase - 18.0 PPG in 2023 - drafted 1.5 - 3 qualifying seasons
Puka Nacua - 17.6 PPG in 2023 - drafted 5.177 - 1 qualifying season
Michael Thomas - 17.3 PPG in 2016 - drafted 2.47 - 4 qualifying seasons
Marques Colston - 17.1 PPG in 2006 - drafted 7.252 - 4 qualifying seasons
Julio Jones - 17.0 PPG in 2011 - drafted 1.6 - 7 qualifying seasons
Justin Jefferson - 16.9 PPG in 2020 - drafted 1.22 - 4 qualifying seasons
Mike Evans - 16.3 PPG in 2014 - drafted 1.7 - 6 qualifying seasons
Jaylen Waddle - 15.5 PPG in 2021 - drafted 1.6 - 1 qualifying season
Brandon Aiyuk - 15.4 PPG in 2020 - drafted 1.25 - 1 qualifying season
Tank Dell - 15.0 PPG in 2023 - drafted 3.69 - 1 qualifying season

WR's who broke out in their 2nd season
Deebo Samuel - 21.4 PPG in 2021 - drafted 2.36 - 2 qualifying seasons
Larry Fitzgerald - 19.2 PPG in 2005 - drafted 1.3 - 7 qualifying seasons
Allen Robinson - 19.0 PPG in 2015 - drafted 2.61 - 2 qualifying seasons
AJ Green - 18.9 PPG in 2012 - drafted 1.4 - 5 qualifying seasons
Juju Smith-Schuster - 18.6 PPG in 2018 - drafted 2.62 - 1 qualifying season
Calvin Johnson - 17.7 PPG in 2008 - drafted 1.2 - 7 qualifying seasons
Brandon Marshall - 17.6 PPG in 2007 - drafted 4.119 - 6 qualifying seasons
AJ Brown - 17.4 PPG in 2020 - drafted 2.51 - 3 qualifying seasons
DK Metcalf - 17.1 PPG in 2020 - drafted 2.64 - 1 qualifying season
Cooper Kupp - 16.9 PPG in 2019 - drafted 3.69 - 2 qualifying seasons (played only 8 games in 2018)
Greg Jennings - 16.7 PPG in 2007 - drafted 2.52 - 4 qualifying seasons
Amon-Ra St. Brown - 16.7 PPG in 2022 - drafted 4.112 - 2 qualifying seasons
Tyreek Hill - 15.9 PPG in 2017 - drafted 5.165 - 6 qualifying seasons
Brandin Cooks - 15.8 in 2015 - drafted 1.20 - 1 qualifying season
Tee Higgins - 15.6 PPG in 2021 - drafted 2.33 - 1 qualifying season
DJ Moore - 15.5 PPG in 2019 - drafted 1.24 - 2 qualifying seasons

WR's who broke out in their 3rd season
DeAndre Hopkins - 20.6 PPG in 2015 - drafted 1.27 - 5 qualifying seasons
Chris Godwin - 19.6 PPG in 2019 - drafted 3.84 - 3 qualifying seasons
Antonio Brown - 19.3 PPG in 2013 - drafted 6.195 - 6 qualifying seasons (played only 9 games in 2010)
Calvin Ridley - 18.8 PPG in 2020 - drafted 1.26 - 1 qualifying season
Demaryius Thomas - 18.6 PPG in 2012 - drafted 1.22 - 4 qualifying seasons
Keenan Allen - 17.8 PPG in 2017 - drafted 3.76 - 7 qualifying seasons (missed too many games in 2015 & 2106)
CeeDee Lamb - 17.7 PPG in 2022 - drafted 1.17 - 2 qualifying seasons
TY Hilton - 17.4 PPG in 2014 - drafted 3.92 - 3 qualifying seasons
Diontae Johnson - 17.3 PPG in 2021 - drafted 3.66 - 1 qualifying season
Nico Collins - 17.2 PPG in 2023 - drafted 3.89 - 1 qualifying season
Eric Decker - 16.8 PPG in 2012 - drafted 3.87 - 3 qualifying seasons
Tyler Boyd - 15.8 PPG in 2018 - drafted 2.55 - 1 qualifying season

WR's who broke out in their 4th season
Jordy Nelson - 17.8 PPG in 2011 - drafted 2.36 - 4 qualifying seasons
Stefon Diggs - 17.6 PPG in 2018 - drafted 5.146 - 5 qualifying seasons
Wes Welker - 17.6 PPG in 2007 - UDFA - 5 qualifying seasons
Roddy White - 16.8 PPG in 2008 - drafted 1.27 - 5 qualifying seasons
Davante Adams - 15.9 PPG in 2017 - drafted 2.53 - 6 qualifying seasons

WR's who broke out in their 5th season
Andre Johnson - 20.0 PPG in 2008 - drafted 1.3 - 5 qualifying seasons (played only 9 games in 2007)
Adam Thielen - 19.2 PPG in 2018 - UDFA - 2 qualifying seasons (did not play in 2013)

WR's who broke out in their 6th season
Tyler Lockett - 16.6 PPG in 2020 - drafted 3.69 - 1 qualifying season

Thoughts
- More breakouts occurred in season 2 vs 3. Perhaps the 3rd year breakout for WR's is a myth?
- 7 of the 12 rookie breakouts were 1st round draft picks
- 7 of the 16 2nd year breakouts were 2nd round draft picks
- 6 of the 12 3rd year breakouts were 3rd round draft picks
- If you're thinking, boy, that's alot of names. It's kind of watered down, huh? Well, last year Davante Adams finished WR11 with 98/1098/7 and it didn't meet the threshold. The year before, Jaylen Waddle finished WR8 with 75/1356/8 and didn't make it.

Your thoughts?

nice research and writeup.
I think when you look at a rookie WR you have to assume they could breakout anytime in their first 3 seasons. sometimes they break out early because of good coaching or good surrounding cast. sometimes they breakout despite the coaching and surrounding cast. but in general, the WR drafted in the first 2-3 rounds switches from prospect to suspect after year 3 unless there is a reason. (ie injury)

but it also depends on when the player was drafted. if drafted late(after the first 2 rounds), I expect it will take longer for that player to break out. Thing is there seems to be an exception to every generalization I see out there. for me, there is no substitute for actually seeing someone play. When I watch someone I get a better feel for the way they play the game and to some degree the way they see the game. sometimes you see a guy play and you just know hes with the wrong QB too as it is clear the QB reads things different than the WR. tough break when that happens.

 

[eighsse2]

What about simply the best fantasy seasons over the past so many years, for a certain position, and what age the player was for those seasons. Do the best WR seasons happen around 26? 28? Best RB seasons at 23? 26? Regardless of what the player did for other seasons. Probably been done before I guess.

After scrolling around a bit, I think I want to revisit and dig deeper into the correlation between catch percentage and yards per reception. I did this in small quantities in the past, but I think there is something to be had here. For example, I've always thought Tyler Lockett was underrated. His lifetime catch % is 70.8 and his Y/R is 13.1 = 83.9. To compare, here are the lifetime numbers for last year's top 20 WR's:
WR3 - Amon-Ra St. Brown - 73.4/11.4 = 84.8
This is where Lockett fits
WR1 - CeeDee Lamb - 69.5/13.0 = 82.5
WR2 - Tyreek Hill - 68.4/14.1 = 82.5
WR13 - Brandon Aiyuk - 67.4/14.6 = 82.0
WR18 - Adam Thielen - 69.8/12.1 = 81.9
WR16 - Devonta Smith - 68.2/13.2 = 81.4
WR9 - Stefon Diggs - 68.8/12.3 = 81.1
WR8 - Keenan Allen - 69.1/11.6 = 80.7
WR15 - Deebo Samuel - 66.0/14.6 = 80.6
WR14 - Michael Pittman - 69.0/10.9 = 79.9
WR4 - Puka Nacua - 65.6/14.2 = 79.8
WR11 - Ja'Marr Chase - 65.8/13.9 = 79.7
WR5 - AJ Brown - 63.4/15.7 = 79.1
WR12 - Nico Collins - 63.8/14.8 = 78.6
WR19 - Calvin Ridley - 62.8/13.5 = 76.3
WR10 - Davante Adams - 63.8/12.4 = 76.2
WR20 - Amari Cooper - 61.9/14.2 = 76.1
WR6 - DJ Moore - 61.2/14.3 = 75.5
WR17 - Chris Olave - 61.9/13.6 = 75.5
WR7 - Mike Evans - 57.7/15.3 = 73.0

Maybe there is no rhyme or reason to this overall number, but I think there is. I just don't know what it is, or how much weight to give to catch percentage vs yards per catch vs QB completion percentage vs any other criteria. For example, Lamb and Hill are both at 82.5, but I think yards per reception has to play a bigger role than catch percentage, right? And if you say yes, at what percentage is yards per reception more important? Why is Mike Evans so far down the list , but QB's still throw to him? Obviously it's yards per reception. I guess, in the end, I am hunting for a formula. I am willing to do the work, but I need help.

I think I remember discussing this one before. Seems arbitrary to just add them together. Multiplying them together gives yards/target which seems (to me) the best way to combine those stats.

 

[TheWinz]

I think I remember discussing this one before. Seems arbitrary to just add them together. Multiplying them together gives yards/target which seems (to me) the best way to combine those stats.

Alright, now we're talking. I never thought of multiplying them. Also, I think it's important to factor in QB's completion percentage. For example, it's much more impressive for a WR to be at 70% when the QB is at 55% vs 75%. The only problem I see in that is taking the time to figure out which QB threw the passes to a WR (13 different players have thrown passes while Evans has been in Tampa Bay). For now, let's see how the list above changes when I multiply vs add.

WR5 - AJ Brown - 63.4/15.7 = 995.4
WR13 - Brandon Aiyuk - 67.4/14.6 = 984.0
WR2 - Tyreek Hill - 68.4/14.1 = 964.4
WR15 - Deebo Samuel - 66.0/14.6 = 963.6
WR12 - Nico Collins - 63.8/14.8 = 944.2
WR4 - Puka Nacua - 65.6/14.2 = 931.5
This is where Lockett fits (927.5)
WR11 - Ja'Marr Chase - 65.8/13.9 = 914.6
WR1 - CeeDee Lamb - 69.5/13.0 = 903.5
WR16 - Devonta Smith - 68.2/13.2 = 900.2
WR7 - Mike Evans - 57.7/15.3 = 882.8
WR20 - Amari Cooper - 61.9/14.2 = 879.0
WR6 - DJ Moore - 61.2/14.3 = 875.2
WR19 - Calvin Ridley - 62.8/13.5 = 847.8
WR9 - Stefon Diggs - 68.8/12.3 = 846.2
WR18 - Adam Thielen - 69.8/12.1 = 844.6
WR17 - Chris Olave - 61.9/13.6 = 841.8
WR3 - Amon-Ra St. Brown - 73.4/11.4 = 836.8
WR8 - Keenan Allen - 69.1/11.6 = 801.6
WR10 - Davante Adams - 63.8/12.4 = 791.1
WR14 - Michael Pittman - 69.0/10.9 = 752.1

I quickly noticed Tyreek and Aiyuk stayed at the top, while guys with lower Y/R dropped.

 

[Ilov80s]

Yeah, it just kind of depends how much you want to rate reliability vs big play making. A lot of that is the offensive scheme and role they play. Like Amon Ra might only be at 11 yards a catch but that is generally a first down which is very significant.

 

[Gally]

I think I remember discussing this one before. Seems arbitrary to just add them together. Multiplying them together gives yards/target which seems (to me) the best way to combine those stats.

Alright, now we're talking. I never thought of multiplying them. Also, I think it's important to factor in QB's completion percentage. For example, it's much more impressive for a WR to be at 70% when the QB is at 55% vs 75%. The only problem I see in that is taking the time to figure out which QB threw the passes to a WR (13 different players have thrown passes while Evans has been in Tampa Bay). For now, let's see how the list above changes when I multiply vs add.

WR5 - AJ Brown - 63.4/15.7 = 995.4
WR13 - Brandon Aiyuk - 67.4/14.6 = 984.0
WR2 - Tyreek Hill - 68.4/14.1 = 964.4
WR15 - Deebo Samuel - 66.0/14.6 = 963.6
WR12 - Nico Collins - 63.8/14.8 = 944.2
WR4 - Puka Nacua - 65.6/14.2 = 931.5
This is where Lockett fits (927.5)
WR11 - Ja'Marr Chase - 65.8/13.9 = 914.6
WR1 - CeeDee Lamb - 69.5/13.0 = 903.5
WR16 - Devonta Smith - 68.2/13.2 = 900.2
WR7 - Mike Evans - 57.7/15.3 = 882.8
WR20 - Amari Cooper - 61.9/14.2 = 879.0
WR6 - DJ Moore - 61.2/14.3 = 875.2
WR19 - Calvin Ridley - 62.8/13.5 = 847.8
WR9 - Stefon Diggs - 68.8/12.3 = 846.2
WR18 - Adam Thielen - 69.8/12.1 = 844.6
WR17 - Chris Olave - 61.9/13.6 = 841.8
WR3 - Amon-Ra St. Brown - 73.4/11.4 = 836.8
WR8 - Keenan Allen - 69.1/11.6 = 801.6
WR10 - Davante Adams - 63.8/12.4 = 791.1
WR14 - Michael Pittman - 69.0/10.9 = 752.1

I quickly noticed Tyreek and Aiyuk stayed at the top, while guys with lower Y/R dropped.

Seems like this approach gives the big play, efficient guys a much bigger bump. Looking at the top 5 or so guys they are all big play, efficient WR's while looking at the bottom 5 gives you the target hog, possession WR type guys.

Not sure if that necessarily hold water for trying to figure out the meaning of the stat but it was something that jumped out to me.

 

[menobrown]

Good article on fantasy performance due to age and this tracks what I've noticed and have mentioned a few times about risk of WR's hitting 30. https://www.fantasylife.com/articles/redraft/how-does-age-impact-wr-performance-in-fantasy-football

 

[Biabreakable]

Nice article Meno. Thanks for posting.

This lines up with everything we have known for a long time as far as peak years to age 27 but then a plateau from age 28-32 for the really good ones which is less sure for the WR 2 types.