When do the good WR's break out? (1 Viewer)

[TheWinz]

I enjoyed researching the stats for TE's, and decided to do a "when do the good WR's break out thread. My criteria will be similar to TE's, but the PPR PPG will go up. Breakout thresholds will be:
Rookie - 15.0 PPG
2nd year - 15.5 PPG
3rd/4th year - 15.75 PPG
5th year+ - 16.0 PPG
Once again, 10 games will be the minimum to count as a season. I will be going back only to year 2002, because that's how far FBG's data goes. If you were a rookie before 2002 with at least 10 games played, sorry. And yes, if you are already retired/inactive, you only made the list with at least 3 breakout seasons under your belt.

WR's who broke out in their rookie season
Odell Beckham Jr - 24.8 PPG in 2014 - drafted 1.12 - 4 qualifying seasons
Anquan Boldin - 18.0 PPG in 2003 - drafted 2.54 - 4 qualifying seasons
Ja'Marr Chase - 18.0 PPG in 2023 - drafted 1.5 - 3 qualifying seasons
Puka Nacua - 17.6 PPG in 2023 - drafted 5.177 - 1 qualifying season
Michael Thomas - 17.3 PPG in 2016 - drafted 2.47 - 4 qualifying seasons
Marques Colston - 17.1 PPG in 2006 - drafted 7.252 - 4 qualifying seasons
Julio Jones - 17.0 PPG in 2011 - drafted 1.6 - 7 qualifying seasons
Justin Jefferson - 16.9 PPG in 2020 - drafted 1.22 - 4 qualifying seasons
Mike Evans - 16.3 PPG in 2014 - drafted 1.7 - 6 qualifying seasons
Jaylen Waddle - 15.5 PPG in 2021 - drafted 1.6 - 1 qualifying season
Brandon Aiyuk - 15.4 PPG in 2020 - drafted 1.25 - 1 qualifying season
Tank Dell - 15.0 PPG in 2023 - drafted 3.69 - 1 qualifying season

WR's who broke out in their 2nd season
Deebo Samuel - 21.4 PPG in 2021 - drafted 2.36 - 2 qualifying seasons
Larry Fitzgerald - 19.2 PPG in 2005 - drafted 1.3 - 7 qualifying seasons
Allen Robinson - 19.0 PPG in 2015 - drafted 2.61 - 2 qualifying seasons
AJ Green - 18.9 PPG in 2012 - drafted 1.4 - 5 qualifying seasons
Juju Smith-Schuster - 18.6 PPG in 2018 - drafted 2.62 - 1 qualifying season
Calvin Johnson - 17.7 PPG in 2008 - drafted 1.2 - 7 qualifying seasons
Brandon Marshall - 17.6 PPG in 2007 - drafted 4.119 - 6 qualifying seasons
AJ Brown - 17.4 PPG in 2020 - drafted 2.51 - 3 qualifying seasons
DK Metcalf - 17.1 PPG in 2020 - drafted 2.64 - 1 qualifying season
Cooper Kupp - 16.9 PPG in 2019 - drafted 3.69 - 2 qualifying seasons (played only 8 games in 2018)
Greg Jennings - 16.7 PPG in 2007 - drafted 2.52 - 4 qualifying seasons
Amon-Ra St. Brown - 16.7 PPG in 2022 - drafted 4.112 - 2 qualifying seasons
Tyreek Hill - 15.9 PPG in 2017 - drafted 5.165 - 6 qualifying seasons
Brandin Cooks - 15.8 in 2015 - drafted 1.20 - 1 qualifying season
Tee Higgins - 15.6 PPG in 2021 - drafted 2.33 - 1 qualifying season
DJ Moore - 15.5 PPG in 2019 - drafted 1.24 - 2 qualifying seasons

WR's who broke out in their 3rd season
DeAndre Hopkins - 20.6 PPG in 2015 - drafted 1.27 - 5 qualifying seasons
Chris Godwin - 19.6 PPG in 2019 - drafted 3.84 - 3 qualifying seasons
Antonio Brown - 19.3 PPG in 2013 - drafted 6.195 - 6 qualifying seasons (played only 9 games in 2010)
Calvin Ridley - 18.8 PPG in 2020 - drafted 1.26 - 1 qualifying season
Demaryius Thomas - 18.6 PPG in 2012 - drafted 1.22 - 4 qualifying seasons
Keenan Allen - 17.8 PPG in 2017 - drafted 3.76 - 7 qualifying seasons (missed too many games in 2015 & 2106)
CeeDee Lamb - 17.7 PPG in 2022 - drafted 1.17 - 2 qualifying seasons
TY Hilton - 17.4 PPG in 2014 - drafted 3.92 - 3 qualifying seasons
Diontae Johnson - 17.3 PPG in 2021 - drafted 3.66 - 1 qualifying season
Nico Collins - 17.2 PPG in 2023 - drafted 3.89 - 1 qualifying season
Eric Decker - 16.8 PPG in 2012 - drafted 3.87 - 3 qualifying seasons
Tyler Boyd - 15.8 PPG in 2018 - drafted 2.55 - 1 qualifying season

WR's who broke out in their 4th season
Jordy Nelson - 17.8 PPG in 2011 - drafted 2.36 - 4 qualifying seasons
Stefon Diggs - 17.6 PPG in 2018 - drafted 5.146 - 5 qualifying seasons
Wes Welker - 17.6 PPG in 2007 - UDFA - 5 qualifying seasons
Roddy White - 16.8 PPG in 2008 - drafted 1.27 - 5 qualifying seasons
Davante Adams - 15.9 PPG in 2017 - drafted 2.53 - 6 qualifying seasons

WR's who broke out in their 5th season
Andre Johnson - 20.0 PPG in 2008 - drafted 1.3 - 5 qualifying seasons (played only 9 games in 2007)
Adam Thielen - 19.2 PPG in 2018 - UDFA - 2 qualifying seasons (did not play in 2013)

WR's who broke out in their 6th season
Tyler Lockett - 16.6 PPG in 2020 - drafted 3.69 - 1 qualifying season

Thoughts
- More breakouts occurred in season 2 vs 3. Perhaps the 3rd year breakout for WR's is a myth?
- 7 of the 12 rookie breakouts were 1st round draft picks
- 7 of the 16 2nd year breakouts were 2nd round draft picks
- 6 of the 12 3rd year breakouts were 3rd round draft picks
- If you're thinking, boy, that's alot of names. It's kind of watered down, huh? Well, last year Davante Adams finished WR11 with 98/1098/7 and it didn't meet the threshold. The year before, Jaylen Waddle finished WR8 with 75/1356/8 and didn't make it.

Your thoughts?

 

[BobbyLayne]

I understand why your screening criteria didn’t credit ARSB with a rookie breakout season, but man what a 6 game stretch to end the year! Lot of Championship teams had him as their WR3/Flex.

• 67 targets (double digits every wk)
• 51 catches (low was 8)
• 621 YFS
• 6 TDs
• 24.85 ppg / WR3 overall

 

[Gally]

If you are trying to identify when someone "breaks out" it seems they should then continue that level of play to really be a breakout. Then the qualifying seasons are just backing up that it was truly a breakout season. So for a guy like Calvin Ridley that only has one qualifying season did he really "break out"? I would say no. But then that begs the question, how many follow on seasons are needed to say a guy broke out? Three? Four? For me, I would say it should be three more seasons. That gives four seasons of consistent top notch production to say that it was a breakout for that player.

Also, what is the purpose of changing the breakout threshold by having it go up as years go on? That seems to me like moving the goal posts a bit.

 

[eighsse2]

Great stuff. Could be very valuable information. One that stands out to me is Andre Johnson. I was pretty new to fantasy football in his heyday, so I didn't realize the significance of a WR having his four best seasons at 31, 27, 28, and 32 years old. Makes me more hesitant to start devaluing a dynasty WR around 27 years old. Though obviously it's a rare few who are elite in their 30s.

 

[menobrown]

Great stuff. Could be very valuable information. One that stands out to me is Andre Johnson. I was pretty new to fantasy football in his heyday, so I didn't realize the significance of a WR having his four best seasons at 31, 27, 28, and 32 years old. Makes me more hesitant to start devaluing a dynasty WR around 27 years old. Though obviously it's a rare few who are elite in their 30s.

This is a year old, saw a new one floating on twitter/X recently but can't recall where I saw it but probably minimal change in data and this seems pretty pertinent to both the topic of the thread and what you are saying here, this is for all fantasy positions so just scroll down to the WR section. For your purposes the article is less about age and more years of service but you get the idea: https://twitter.com/RyanJ_Heath/status/1695827025297088686

ETA-I put the wrong link earlier: https://www.fantasypoints.com/nfl/articles/2023/age-curves-when-nfl-players-break-out-and-fall-off#/

 

[travdogg]

Some of these guys have correlations that I think have 0 to do with the players themselves and more to do with massive changes (especially at QB) around them, for example:

2012 Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas broke out less due to them suddenly being better, and more Denver going from Tim Tebow to Peyton Manning.
2007 Wes Welker went from Cleo Lemon (remember him?) to Tom Brady.

I think we can throw those guys off the list. Their breakout years are irrelevant.

Great stuff. Could be very valuable information. One that stands out to me is Andre Johnson. I was pretty new to fantasy football in his heyday, so I didn't realize the significance of a WR having his four best seasons at 31, 27, 28, and 32 years old. Makes me more hesitant to start devaluing a dynasty WR around 27 years old. Though obviously it's a rare few who are elite in their 30s.

I've found that 27 is much more likely to be a career season than when the wheels start falling off for top WRs. Guys who are WR1s year in and year out, tend to usually make it to their early 30s before a decline begins, and buying those guys at 28-30 has been a very viable dynasty strategy for me, as they come extremely cheap.

I got Mike Evans for a 2nd round rookie pick (Isaiah Spiller of all people) in 2022 because the person who had him was desperate to get out while he still had value. Same thing happened in mid-2014 getting Larry Fitzgerald for a pick that turned into Dorial Green-Beckham.

I think that's true at all positions (maybe less QB as age doesn't make for motivated sellers as much there, though Brady/Brees were both grossly undervalued the last few years of their careers) that if a guy is truly elite, he tends to be a value as he ages, unless he suffers a major injury.

 

[eighsse2]

Some of these guys have correlations that I think have 0 to do with the players themselves and more to do with massive changes (especially at QB) around them, for example:

2012 Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas broke out less due to them suddenly being better, and more Denver going from Tim Tebow to Peyton Manning.
2007 Wes Welker went from Cleo Lemon (remember him?) to Tom Brady.

I think we can throw those guys off the list. Their breakout years are irrelevant.

Great stuff. Could be very valuable information. One that stands out to me is Andre Johnson. I was pretty new to fantasy football in his heyday, so I didn't realize the significance of a WR having his four best seasons at 31, 27, 28, and 32 years old. Makes me more hesitant to start devaluing a dynasty WR around 27 years old. Though obviously it's a rare few who are elite in their 30s.

I've found that 27 is much more likely to be a career season than when the wheels start falling off for top WRs. Guys who are WR1s year in and year out, tend to usually make it to their early 30s before a decline begins, and buying those guys at 28-30 has been a very viable dynasty strategy for me, as they come extremely cheap.

I got Mike Evans for a 2nd round rookie pick (Isaiah Spiller of all people) in 2022 because the person who had him was desperate to get out while he still had value. Same thing happened in mid-2014 getting Larry Fitzgerald for a pick that turned into Dorial Green-Beckham.

I think that's true at all positions (maybe less QB as age doesn't make for motivated sellers as much there, though Brady/Brees were both grossly undervalued the last few years of their careers) that if a guy is truly elite, he tends to be a value as he ages, unless he suffers a major injury.

And just to be clear, when I said "devaluing a dynasty WR around 27", it's not that I expect the age-27 season to be a dip. Quite the opposite. Only that he has fewer years left in his expected career, versus, say, a 20-year-old Malik Nabers. Just as an example, if I were to somehow know today that Nabers and AJ Brown would both ultimately have very similar career production, I'd rather have Nabers right now. (But the certainty factor for Brown tips the scales his way in reality.) It's in that sense that I begin devaluing a WR around 27.

 

[TheWinz]

If you are trying to identify when someone "breaks out" it seems they should then continue that level of play to really be a breakout. Then the qualifying seasons are just backing up that it was truly a breakout season. So for a guy like Calvin Ridley that only has one qualifying season did he really "break out"? I would say no. But then that begs the question, how many follow on seasons are needed to say a guy broke out? Three? Four? For me, I would say it should be three more seasons. That gives four seasons of consistent top notch production to say that it was a breakout for that player.

Also, what is the purpose of changing the breakout threshold by having it go up as years go on? That seems to me like moving the goal posts a bit.

I agree players need to continue to be studly for it to matter, so I chose a total of 3 seasons. If you notice, the only players with less than 3 seasons are still active, so they have a chance to add to their totals. I expect guys like Tyler Lockett, Allen Robinson, and Juju Smith-Schuster to fall off the list when they retire. But if I set the limit at 3, current studs like CeeDee Lamb and Amon-Ra St. Brown wouldn't be on the list.

As for increasing the threshold as years go on, I did it in the TE thread, so I just did it here. I guess the list would just be longer if I kept 15 PPG for all seasons.

 

[Gally]

As for increasing the threshold as years go on, I did it in the TE thread, so I just did it here. I guess the list would just be longer if I kept 15 PPG for all seasons.

But is that a bad thing? I would think the point is to identify players that meet a threshold you deem as worthy to be considered a "breakout". Moving that seems like it would skew the data a bit but maybe I don't understand what you are really doing with it.

 

[eighsse2]

As for increasing the threshold as years go on, I did it in the TE thread, so I just did it here. I guess the list would just be longer if I kept 15 PPG for all seasons.

But is that a bad thing? I would think the point is to identify players that meet a threshold you deem as worthy to be considered a "breakout". Moving that seems like it would skew the data a bit but maybe I don't understand what you are really doing with it.

I agree it seems arbitrary. But I also think it seems somewhat intuitive, though I don't know exactly why I feel that way. I guess a possible reason is that a rookie having a very solid season is less expected and therefore (intuitively, though I don't know about statistically) indicative of a higher career ceiling. If a guy scores 8.3, 9.3, 15.6 ppg in his first three seasons, and another guy scores 15.6 ppg in his rookie season, and that's all the data I have, I'm more impressed by the rookie and expect a better future out of him.

 

[TheWinz]

As for increasing the threshold as years go on, I did it in the TE thread, so I just did it here. I guess the list would just be longer if I kept 15 PPG for all seasons.

But is that a bad thing? I would think the point is to identify players that meet a threshold you deem as worthy to be considered a "breakout". Moving that seems like it would skew the data a bit but maybe I don't understand what you are really doing with it.

I agree it seems arbitrary. But I also think it seems somewhat intuitive, though I don't know exactly why I feel that way. I guess a possible reason is that a rookie having a very solid season is less expected and therefore (intuitively, though I don't know about statistically) indicative of a higher career ceiling. If a guy scores 8.3, 9.3, 15.6 ppg in his first three seasons, and another guy scores 15.6 ppg in his rookie season, and that's all the data I have, I'm more impressed by the rookie and expect a better future out of him.

Yeah. I really don't know why I chose to increase up to year 5. It just seemed like a good idea. In the end, I am just a stat nerd and wanted to research something. By the way, I am open to digging through any other kind of stats. Got any ideas? Perhaps something like are left-footed kickers more accurate?

 

[eighsse2]

As for increasing the threshold as years go on, I did it in the TE thread, so I just did it here. I guess the list would just be longer if I kept 15 PPG for all seasons.

But is that a bad thing? I would think the point is to identify players that meet a threshold you deem as worthy to be considered a "breakout". Moving that seems like it would skew the data a bit but maybe I don't understand what you are really doing with it.

I agree it seems arbitrary. But I also think it seems somewhat intuitive, though I don't know exactly why I feel that way. I guess a possible reason is that a rookie having a very solid season is less expected and therefore (intuitively, though I don't know about statistically) indicative of a higher career ceiling. If a guy scores 8.3, 9.3, 15.6 ppg in his first three seasons, and another guy scores 15.6 ppg in his rookie season, and that's all the data I have, I'm more impressed by the rookie and expect a better future out of him.

Yeah. I really don't know why I chose to increase up to year 5. It just seemed like a good idea. In the end, I am just a stat nerd and wanted to research something. By the way, I am open to digging through any other kind of stats. Got any ideas? Perhaps something like are left-footed kickers more accurate?

What about simply the best fantasy seasons over the past so many years, for a certain position, and what age the player was for those seasons. Do the best WR seasons happen around 26? 28? Best RB seasons at 23? 26? Regardless of what the player did for other seasons. Probably been done before I guess.

 

[menobrown]

As for increasing the threshold as years go on, I did it in the TE thread, so I just did it here. I guess the list would just be longer if I kept 15 PPG for all seasons.

But is that a bad thing? I would think the point is to identify players that meet a threshold you deem as worthy to be considered a "breakout". Moving that seems like it would skew the data a bit but maybe I don't understand what you are really doing with it.

I agree it seems arbitrary. But I also think it seems somewhat intuitive, though I don't know exactly why I feel that way. I guess a possible reason is that a rookie having a very solid season is less expected and therefore (intuitively, though I don't know about statistically) indicative of a higher career ceiling. If a guy scores 8.3, 9.3, 15.6 ppg in his first three seasons, and another guy scores 15.6 ppg in his rookie season, and that's all the data I have, I'm more impressed by the rookie and expect a better future out of him.

Yeah. I really don't know why I chose to increase up to year 5. It just seemed like a good idea. In the end, I am just a stat nerd and wanted to research something. By the way, I am open to digging through any other kind of stats. Got any ideas? Perhaps something like are left-footed kickers more accurate?

What about simply the best fantasy seasons over the past so many years, for a certain position, and what age the player was for those seasons. Do the best WR seasons happen around 26? 28? Best RB seasons at 23? 26? Regardless of what the player did for other seasons. Probably been done before I guess.

That link I had posted in an earlier response did exactly this but by years of service instead of age.

It was close, growth was not always linear, but that article showed RB's had most fantasy points in year two, both WR's and TE's in year 5. (*that work was done last year, so not sure how much might have changed, probably not a lot)

 

[eighsse2]

As for increasing the threshold as years go on, I did it in the TE thread, so I just did it here. I guess the list would just be longer if I kept 15 PPG for all seasons.

But is that a bad thing? I would think the point is to identify players that meet a threshold you deem as worthy to be considered a "breakout". Moving that seems like it would skew the data a bit but maybe I don't understand what you are really doing with it.

I agree it seems arbitrary. But I also think it seems somewhat intuitive, though I don't know exactly why I feel that way. I guess a possible reason is that a rookie having a very solid season is less expected and therefore (intuitively, though I don't know about statistically) indicative of a higher career ceiling. If a guy scores 8.3, 9.3, 15.6 ppg in his first three seasons, and another guy scores 15.6 ppg in his rookie season, and that's all the data I have, I'm more impressed by the rookie and expect a better future out of him.

Yeah. I really don't know why I chose to increase up to year 5. It just seemed like a good idea. In the end, I am just a stat nerd and wanted to research something. By the way, I am open to digging through any other kind of stats. Got any ideas? Perhaps something like are left-footed kickers more accurate?

What about simply the best fantasy seasons over the past so many years, for a certain position, and what age the player was for those seasons. Do the best WR seasons happen around 26? 28? Best RB seasons at 23? 26? Regardless of what the player did for other seasons. Probably been done before I guess.

That link I had posted in an earlier response did exactly this but by years of service instead of age.

It was close, growth was not always linear, but that article showed RB's had most fantasy points in year two, both WR's and TE's in year 5. (*that work was done last year, so not sure how much might have changed, probably not a lot)

Not exactly. Not that I liked that data any less than what I'm specifying, what you linked may be way more useful, I don't know. I'm saying, just list the top, say, 50 WR seasons from the past 20 years. Then look at what age (or which year of career) those seasons occured.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Break out? Hopefully they don't go to jail in the first place.

 

[TheWinz]

What about simply the best fantasy seasons over the past so many years, for a certain position, and what age the player was for those seasons. Do the best WR seasons happen around 26? 28? Best RB seasons at 23? 26? Regardless of what the player did for other seasons. Probably been done before I guess.

After scrolling around a bit, I think I want to revisit and dig deeper into the correlation between catch percentage and yards per reception. I did this in small quantities in the past, but I think there is something to be had here. For example, I've always thought Tyler Lockett was underrated. His lifetime catch % is 70.8 and his Y/R is 13.1 = 83.9. To compare, here are the lifetime numbers for last year's top 20 WR's:
WR3 - Amon-Ra St. Brown - 73.4/11.4 = 84.8
This is where Lockett fits
WR1 - CeeDee Lamb - 69.5/13.0 = 82.5
WR2 - Tyreek Hill - 68.4/14.1 = 82.5
WR13 - Brandon Aiyuk - 67.4/14.6 = 82.0
WR18 - Adam Thielen - 69.8/12.1 = 81.9
WR16 - Devonta Smith - 68.2/13.2 = 81.4
WR9 - Stefon Diggs - 68.8/12.3 = 81.1
WR8 - Keenan Allen - 69.1/11.6 = 80.7
WR15 - Deebo Samuel - 66.0/14.6 = 80.6
WR14 - Michael Pittman - 69.0/10.9 = 79.9
WR4 - Puka Nacua - 65.6/14.2 = 79.8
WR11 - Ja'Marr Chase - 65.8/13.9 = 79.7
WR5 - AJ Brown - 63.4/15.7 = 79.1
WR12 - Nico Collins - 63.8/14.8 = 78.6
WR19 - Calvin Ridley - 62.8/13.5 = 76.3
WR10 - Davante Adams - 63.8/12.4 = 76.2
WR20 - Amari Cooper - 61.9/14.2 = 76.1
WR6 - DJ Moore - 61.2/14.3 = 75.5
WR17 - Chris Olave - 61.9/13.6 = 75.5
WR7 - Mike Evans - 57.7/15.3 = 73.0

Maybe there is no rhyme or reason to this overall number, but I think there is. I just don't know what it is, or how much weight to give to catch percentage vs yards per catch vs QB completion percentage vs any other criteria. For example, Lamb and Hill are both at 82.5, but I think yards per reception has to play a bigger role than catch percentage, right? And if you say yes, at what percentage is yards per reception more important? Why is Mike Evans so far down the list , but QB's still throw to him? Obviously it's yards per reception. I guess, in the end, I am hunting for a formula. I am willing to do the work, but I need help.

 

[Ray_T]

I enjoyed researching the stats for TE's, and decided to do a "when do the good WR's break out thread. My criteria will be similar to TE's, but the PPR PPG will go up. Breakout thresholds will be:
Rookie - 15.0 PPG
2nd year - 15.5 PPG
3rd/4th year - 15.75 PPG
5th year+ - 16.0 PPG
Once again, 10 games will be the minimum to count as a season. I will be going back only to year 2002, because that's how far FBG's data goes. If you were a rookie before 2002 with at least 10 games played, sorry. And yes, if you are already retired/inactive, you only made the list with at least 3 breakout seasons under your belt.

WR's who broke out in their rookie season
Odell Beckham Jr - 24.8 PPG in 2014 - drafted 1.12 - 4 qualifying seasons
Anquan Boldin - 18.0 PPG in 2003 - drafted 2.54 - 4 qualifying seasons
Ja'Marr Chase - 18.0 PPG in 2023 - drafted 1.5 - 3 qualifying seasons
Puka Nacua - 17.6 PPG in 2023 - drafted 5.177 - 1 qualifying season
Michael Thomas - 17.3 PPG in 2016 - drafted 2.47 - 4 qualifying seasons
Marques Colston - 17.1 PPG in 2006 - drafted 7.252 - 4 qualifying seasons
Julio Jones - 17.0 PPG in 2011 - drafted 1.6 - 7 qualifying seasons
Justin Jefferson - 16.9 PPG in 2020 - drafted 1.22 - 4 qualifying seasons
Mike Evans - 16.3 PPG in 2014 - drafted 1.7 - 6 qualifying seasons
Jaylen Waddle - 15.5 PPG in 2021 - drafted 1.6 - 1 qualifying season
Brandon Aiyuk - 15.4 PPG in 2020 - drafted 1.25 - 1 qualifying season
Tank Dell - 15.0 PPG in 2023 - drafted 3.69 - 1 qualifying season

WR's who broke out in their 2nd season
Deebo Samuel - 21.4 PPG in 2021 - drafted 2.36 - 2 qualifying seasons
Larry Fitzgerald - 19.2 PPG in 2005 - drafted 1.3 - 7 qualifying seasons
Allen Robinson - 19.0 PPG in 2015 - drafted 2.61 - 2 qualifying seasons
AJ Green - 18.9 PPG in 2012 - drafted 1.4 - 5 qualifying seasons
Juju Smith-Schuster - 18.6 PPG in 2018 - drafted 2.62 - 1 qualifying season
Calvin Johnson - 17.7 PPG in 2008 - drafted 1.2 - 7 qualifying seasons
Brandon Marshall - 17.6 PPG in 2007 - drafted 4.119 - 6 qualifying seasons
AJ Brown - 17.4 PPG in 2020 - drafted 2.51 - 3 qualifying seasons
DK Metcalf - 17.1 PPG in 2020 - drafted 2.64 - 1 qualifying season
Cooper Kupp - 16.9 PPG in 2019 - drafted 3.69 - 2 qualifying seasons (played only 8 games in 2018)
Greg Jennings - 16.7 PPG in 2007 - drafted 2.52 - 4 qualifying seasons
Amon-Ra St. Brown - 16.7 PPG in 2022 - drafted 4.112 - 2 qualifying seasons
Tyreek Hill - 15.9 PPG in 2017 - drafted 5.165 - 6 qualifying seasons
Brandin Cooks - 15.8 in 2015 - drafted 1.20 - 1 qualifying season
Tee Higgins - 15.6 PPG in 2021 - drafted 2.33 - 1 qualifying season
DJ Moore - 15.5 PPG in 2019 - drafted 1.24 - 2 qualifying seasons

WR's who broke out in their 3rd season
DeAndre Hopkins - 20.6 PPG in 2015 - drafted 1.27 - 5 qualifying seasons
Chris Godwin - 19.6 PPG in 2019 - drafted 3.84 - 3 qualifying seasons
Antonio Brown - 19.3 PPG in 2013 - drafted 6.195 - 6 qualifying seasons (played only 9 games in 2010)
Calvin Ridley - 18.8 PPG in 2020 - drafted 1.26 - 1 qualifying season
Demaryius Thomas - 18.6 PPG in 2012 - drafted 1.22 - 4 qualifying seasons
Keenan Allen - 17.8 PPG in 2017 - drafted 3.76 - 7 qualifying seasons (missed too many games in 2015 & 2106)
CeeDee Lamb - 17.7 PPG in 2022 - drafted 1.17 - 2 qualifying seasons
TY Hilton - 17.4 PPG in 2014 - drafted 3.92 - 3 qualifying seasons
Diontae Johnson - 17.3 PPG in 2021 - drafted 3.66 - 1 qualifying season
Nico Collins - 17.2 PPG in 2023 - drafted 3.89 - 1 qualifying season
Eric Decker - 16.8 PPG in 2012 - drafted 3.87 - 3 qualifying seasons
Tyler Boyd - 15.8 PPG in 2018 - drafted 2.55 - 1 qualifying season

WR's who broke out in their 4th season
Jordy Nelson - 17.8 PPG in 2011 - drafted 2.36 - 4 qualifying seasons
Stefon Diggs - 17.6 PPG in 2018 - drafted 5.146 - 5 qualifying seasons
Wes Welker - 17.6 PPG in 2007 - UDFA - 5 qualifying seasons
Roddy White - 16.8 PPG in 2008 - drafted 1.27 - 5 qualifying seasons
Davante Adams - 15.9 PPG in 2017 - drafted 2.53 - 6 qualifying seasons

WR's who broke out in their 5th season
Andre Johnson - 20.0 PPG in 2008 - drafted 1.3 - 5 qualifying seasons (played only 9 games in 2007)
Adam Thielen - 19.2 PPG in 2018 - UDFA - 2 qualifying seasons (did not play in 2013)

WR's who broke out in their 6th season
Tyler Lockett - 16.6 PPG in 2020 - drafted 3.69 - 1 qualifying season

Thoughts
- More breakouts occurred in season 2 vs 3. Perhaps the 3rd year breakout for WR's is a myth?
- 7 of the 12 rookie breakouts were 1st round draft picks
- 7 of the 16 2nd year breakouts were 2nd round draft picks
- 6 of the 12 3rd year breakouts were 3rd round draft picks
- If you're thinking, boy, that's alot of names. It's kind of watered down, huh? Well, last year Davante Adams finished WR11 with 98/1098/7 and it didn't meet the threshold. The year before, Jaylen Waddle finished WR8 with 75/1356/8 and didn't make it.

Your thoughts?

nice research and writeup.
I think when you look at a rookie WR you have to assume they could breakout anytime in their first 3 seasons. sometimes they break out early because of good coaching or good surrounding cast. sometimes they breakout despite the coaching and surrounding cast. but in general, the WR drafted in the first 2-3 rounds switches from prospect to suspect after year 3 unless there is a reason. (ie injury)

but it also depends on when the player was drafted. if drafted late(after the first 2 rounds), I expect it will take longer for that player to break out. Thing is there seems to be an exception to every generalization I see out there. for me, there is no substitute for actually seeing someone play. When I watch someone I get a better feel for the way they play the game and to some degree the way they see the game. sometimes you see a guy play and you just know hes with the wrong QB too as it is clear the QB reads things different than the WR. tough break when that happens.

 

[eighsse2]

What about simply the best fantasy seasons over the past so many years, for a certain position, and what age the player was for those seasons. Do the best WR seasons happen around 26? 28? Best RB seasons at 23? 26? Regardless of what the player did for other seasons. Probably been done before I guess.

After scrolling around a bit, I think I want to revisit and dig deeper into the correlation between catch percentage and yards per reception. I did this in small quantities in the past, but I think there is something to be had here. For example, I've always thought Tyler Lockett was underrated. His lifetime catch % is 70.8 and his Y/R is 13.1 = 83.9. To compare, here are the lifetime numbers for last year's top 20 WR's:
WR3 - Amon-Ra St. Brown - 73.4/11.4 = 84.8
This is where Lockett fits
WR1 - CeeDee Lamb - 69.5/13.0 = 82.5
WR2 - Tyreek Hill - 68.4/14.1 = 82.5
WR13 - Brandon Aiyuk - 67.4/14.6 = 82.0
WR18 - Adam Thielen - 69.8/12.1 = 81.9
WR16 - Devonta Smith - 68.2/13.2 = 81.4
WR9 - Stefon Diggs - 68.8/12.3 = 81.1
WR8 - Keenan Allen - 69.1/11.6 = 80.7
WR15 - Deebo Samuel - 66.0/14.6 = 80.6
WR14 - Michael Pittman - 69.0/10.9 = 79.9
WR4 - Puka Nacua - 65.6/14.2 = 79.8
WR11 - Ja'Marr Chase - 65.8/13.9 = 79.7
WR5 - AJ Brown - 63.4/15.7 = 79.1
WR12 - Nico Collins - 63.8/14.8 = 78.6
WR19 - Calvin Ridley - 62.8/13.5 = 76.3
WR10 - Davante Adams - 63.8/12.4 = 76.2
WR20 - Amari Cooper - 61.9/14.2 = 76.1
WR6 - DJ Moore - 61.2/14.3 = 75.5
WR17 - Chris Olave - 61.9/13.6 = 75.5
WR7 - Mike Evans - 57.7/15.3 = 73.0

Maybe there is no rhyme or reason to this overall number, but I think there is. I just don't know what it is, or how much weight to give to catch percentage vs yards per catch vs QB completion percentage vs any other criteria. For example, Lamb and Hill are both at 82.5, but I think yards per reception has to play a bigger role than catch percentage, right? And if you say yes, at what percentage is yards per reception more important? Why is Mike Evans so far down the list , but QB's still throw to him? Obviously it's yards per reception. I guess, in the end, I am hunting for a formula. I am willing to do the work, but I need help.

I think I remember discussing this one before. Seems arbitrary to just add them together. Multiplying them together gives yards/target which seems (to me) the best way to combine those stats.

 

[TheWinz]

I think I remember discussing this one before. Seems arbitrary to just add them together. Multiplying them together gives yards/target which seems (to me) the best way to combine those stats.

Alright, now we're talking. I never thought of multiplying them. Also, I think it's important to factor in QB's completion percentage. For example, it's much more impressive for a WR to be at 70% when the QB is at 55% vs 75%. The only problem I see in that is taking the time to figure out which QB threw the passes to a WR (13 different players have thrown passes while Evans has been in Tampa Bay). For now, let's see how the list above changes when I multiply vs add.

WR5 - AJ Brown - 63.4/15.7 = 995.4
WR13 - Brandon Aiyuk - 67.4/14.6 = 984.0
WR2 - Tyreek Hill - 68.4/14.1 = 964.4
WR15 - Deebo Samuel - 66.0/14.6 = 963.6
WR12 - Nico Collins - 63.8/14.8 = 944.2
WR4 - Puka Nacua - 65.6/14.2 = 931.5
This is where Lockett fits (927.5)
WR11 - Ja'Marr Chase - 65.8/13.9 = 914.6
WR1 - CeeDee Lamb - 69.5/13.0 = 903.5
WR16 - Devonta Smith - 68.2/13.2 = 900.2
WR7 - Mike Evans - 57.7/15.3 = 882.8
WR20 - Amari Cooper - 61.9/14.2 = 879.0
WR6 - DJ Moore - 61.2/14.3 = 875.2
WR19 - Calvin Ridley - 62.8/13.5 = 847.8
WR9 - Stefon Diggs - 68.8/12.3 = 846.2
WR18 - Adam Thielen - 69.8/12.1 = 844.6
WR17 - Chris Olave - 61.9/13.6 = 841.8
WR3 - Amon-Ra St. Brown - 73.4/11.4 = 836.8
WR8 - Keenan Allen - 69.1/11.6 = 801.6
WR10 - Davante Adams - 63.8/12.4 = 791.1
WR14 - Michael Pittman - 69.0/10.9 = 752.1

I quickly noticed Tyreek and Aiyuk stayed at the top, while guys with lower Y/R dropped.

 

[Ilov80s]

Yeah, it just kind of depends how much you want to rate reliability vs big play making. A lot of that is the offensive scheme and role they play. Like Amon Ra might only be at 11 yards a catch but that is generally a first down which is very significant.

 

[Gally]

I think I remember discussing this one before. Seems arbitrary to just add them together. Multiplying them together gives yards/target which seems (to me) the best way to combine those stats.

Alright, now we're talking. I never thought of multiplying them. Also, I think it's important to factor in QB's completion percentage. For example, it's much more impressive for a WR to be at 70% when the QB is at 55% vs 75%. The only problem I see in that is taking the time to figure out which QB threw the passes to a WR (13 different players have thrown passes while Evans has been in Tampa Bay). For now, let's see how the list above changes when I multiply vs add.

WR5 - AJ Brown - 63.4/15.7 = 995.4
WR13 - Brandon Aiyuk - 67.4/14.6 = 984.0
WR2 - Tyreek Hill - 68.4/14.1 = 964.4
WR15 - Deebo Samuel - 66.0/14.6 = 963.6
WR12 - Nico Collins - 63.8/14.8 = 944.2
WR4 - Puka Nacua - 65.6/14.2 = 931.5
This is where Lockett fits (927.5)
WR11 - Ja'Marr Chase - 65.8/13.9 = 914.6
WR1 - CeeDee Lamb - 69.5/13.0 = 903.5
WR16 - Devonta Smith - 68.2/13.2 = 900.2
WR7 - Mike Evans - 57.7/15.3 = 882.8
WR20 - Amari Cooper - 61.9/14.2 = 879.0
WR6 - DJ Moore - 61.2/14.3 = 875.2
WR19 - Calvin Ridley - 62.8/13.5 = 847.8
WR9 - Stefon Diggs - 68.8/12.3 = 846.2
WR18 - Adam Thielen - 69.8/12.1 = 844.6
WR17 - Chris Olave - 61.9/13.6 = 841.8
WR3 - Amon-Ra St. Brown - 73.4/11.4 = 836.8
WR8 - Keenan Allen - 69.1/11.6 = 801.6
WR10 - Davante Adams - 63.8/12.4 = 791.1
WR14 - Michael Pittman - 69.0/10.9 = 752.1

I quickly noticed Tyreek and Aiyuk stayed at the top, while guys with lower Y/R dropped.

Seems like this approach gives the big play, efficient guys a much bigger bump. Looking at the top 5 or so guys they are all big play, efficient WR's while looking at the bottom 5 gives you the target hog, possession WR type guys.

Not sure if that necessarily hold water for trying to figure out the meaning of the stat but it was something that jumped out to me.

 

[menobrown]

Good article on fantasy performance due to age and this tracks what I've noticed and have mentioned a few times about risk of WR's hitting 30. https://www.fantasylife.com/articles/redraft/how-does-age-impact-wr-performance-in-fantasy-football

 

[Biabreakable]

Nice article Meno. Thanks for posting.

This lines up with everything we have known for a long time as far as peak years to age 27 but then a plateau from age 28-32 for the really good ones which is less sure for the WR 2 types.

 

[@GregoryLKellogg]

I enjoyed researching the stats for TE's, and decided to do a "when do the good WR's break out thread. My criteria will be similar to TE's, but the PPR PPG will go up. Breakout thresholds will be:
Rookie - 15.0 PPG
2nd year - 15.5 PPG
3rd/4th year - 15.75 PPG
5th year+ - 16.0 PPG
Once again, 10 games will be the minimum to count as a season. I will be going back only to year 2002, because that's how far FBG's data goes. If you were a rookie before 2002 with at least 10 games played, sorry. And yes, if you are already retired/inactive, you only made the list with at least 3 breakout seasons under your belt.

WR's who broke out in their rookie season
Odell Beckham Jr - 24.8 PPG in 2014 - drafted 1.12 - 4 qualifying seasons
Anquan Boldin - 18.0 PPG in 2003 - drafted 2.54 - 4 qualifying seasons
Ja'Marr Chase - 18.0 PPG in 2023 - drafted 1.5 - 3 qualifying seasons
Puka Nacua - 17.6 PPG in 2023 - drafted 5.177 - 1 qualifying season
Michael Thomas - 17.3 PPG in 2016 - drafted 2.47 - 4 qualifying seasons
Marques Colston - 17.1 PPG in 2006 - drafted 7.252 - 4 qualifying seasons
Julio Jones - 17.0 PPG in 2011 - drafted 1.6 - 7 qualifying seasons
Justin Jefferson - 16.9 PPG in 2020 - drafted 1.22 - 4 qualifying seasons
Mike Evans - 16.3 PPG in 2014 - drafted 1.7 - 6 qualifying seasons
Jaylen Waddle - 15.5 PPG in 2021 - drafted 1.6 - 1 qualifying season
Brandon Aiyuk - 15.4 PPG in 2020 - drafted 1.25 - 1 qualifying season
Tank Dell - 15.0 PPG in 2023 - drafted 3.69 - 1 qualifying season

WR's who broke out in their 2nd season
Deebo Samuel - 21.4 PPG in 2021 - drafted 2.36 - 2 qualifying seasons
Larry Fitzgerald - 19.2 PPG in 2005 - drafted 1.3 - 7 qualifying seasons
Allen Robinson - 19.0 PPG in 2015 - drafted 2.61 - 2 qualifying seasons
AJ Green - 18.9 PPG in 2012 - drafted 1.4 - 5 qualifying seasons
Juju Smith-Schuster - 18.6 PPG in 2018 - drafted 2.62 - 1 qualifying season
Calvin Johnson - 17.7 PPG in 2008 - drafted 1.2 - 7 qualifying seasons
Brandon Marshall - 17.6 PPG in 2007 - drafted 4.119 - 6 qualifying seasons
AJ Brown - 17.4 PPG in 2020 - drafted 2.51 - 3 qualifying seasons
DK Metcalf - 17.1 PPG in 2020 - drafted 2.64 - 1 qualifying season
Cooper Kupp - 16.9 PPG in 2019 - drafted 3.69 - 2 qualifying seasons (played only 8 games in 2018)
Greg Jennings - 16.7 PPG in 2007 - drafted 2.52 - 4 qualifying seasons
Amon-Ra St. Brown - 16.7 PPG in 2022 - drafted 4.112 - 2 qualifying seasons
Tyreek Hill - 15.9 PPG in 2017 - drafted 5.165 - 6 qualifying seasons
Brandin Cooks - 15.8 in 2015 - drafted 1.20 - 1 qualifying season
Tee Higgins - 15.6 PPG in 2021 - drafted 2.33 - 1 qualifying season
DJ Moore - 15.5 PPG in 2019 - drafted 1.24 - 2 qualifying seasons

WR's who broke out in their 3rd season
DeAndre Hopkins - 20.6 PPG in 2015 - drafted 1.27 - 5 qualifying seasons
Chris Godwin - 19.6 PPG in 2019 - drafted 3.84 - 3 qualifying seasons
Antonio Brown - 19.3 PPG in 2013 - drafted 6.195 - 6 qualifying seasons (played only 9 games in 2010)
Calvin Ridley - 18.8 PPG in 2020 - drafted 1.26 - 1 qualifying season
Demaryius Thomas - 18.6 PPG in 2012 - drafted 1.22 - 4 qualifying seasons
Keenan Allen - 17.8 PPG in 2017 - drafted 3.76 - 7 qualifying seasons (missed too many games in 2015 & 2106)
CeeDee Lamb - 17.7 PPG in 2022 - drafted 1.17 - 2 qualifying seasons
TY Hilton - 17.4 PPG in 2014 - drafted 3.92 - 3 qualifying seasons
Diontae Johnson - 17.3 PPG in 2021 - drafted 3.66 - 1 qualifying season
Nico Collins - 17.2 PPG in 2023 - drafted 3.89 - 1 qualifying season
Eric Decker - 16.8 PPG in 2012 - drafted 3.87 - 3 qualifying seasons
Tyler Boyd - 15.8 PPG in 2018 - drafted 2.55 - 1 qualifying season

WR's who broke out in their 4th season
Jordy Nelson - 17.8 PPG in 2011 - drafted 2.36 - 4 qualifying seasons
Stefon Diggs - 17.6 PPG in 2018 - drafted 5.146 - 5 qualifying seasons
Wes Welker - 17.6 PPG in 2007 - UDFA - 5 qualifying seasons
Roddy White - 16.8 PPG in 2008 - drafted 1.27 - 5 qualifying seasons
Davante Adams - 15.9 PPG in 2017 - drafted 2.53 - 6 qualifying seasons

WR's who broke out in their 5th season
Andre Johnson - 20.0 PPG in 2008 - drafted 1.3 - 5 qualifying seasons (played only 9 games in 2007)
Adam Thielen - 19.2 PPG in 2018 - UDFA - 2 qualifying seasons (did not play in 2013)

WR's who broke out in their 6th season
Tyler Lockett - 16.6 PPG in 2020 - drafted 3.69 - 1 qualifying season

Thoughts
- More breakouts occurred in season 2 vs 3. Perhaps the 3rd year breakout for WR's is a myth?
- 7 of the 12 rookie breakouts were 1st round draft picks
- 7 of the 16 2nd year breakouts were 2nd round draft picks
- 6 of the 12 3rd year breakouts were 3rd round draft picks
- If you're thinking, boy, that's alot of names. It's kind of watered down, huh? Well, last year Davante Adams finished WR11 with 98/1098/7 and it didn't meet the threshold. The year before, Jaylen Waddle finished WR8 with 75/1356/8 and didn't make it.

Your thoughts?

Very nice work. But what about guys like Amon ra St. Brown? I had always thought that most WRs break out in year two or three. Your study seems to show 1 and two. Would be interestting to know how many 1st round WRs break out in each year vs. 2nd rounders and so on.

 

[TheWinz]

Very nice work. But what about guys like Amon ra St. Brown? I had always thought that most WRs break out in year two or three. Your study seems to show 1 and two. Would be interestting to know how many 1st round WRs break out in each year vs. 2nd rounders and so on.

Great question. Before I start crunching numbers, lemme ask - what stat thresholds do you want me use? Same as in the OP?

Rookie - 15.0 PPG
2nd year - 15.5 PPG
3rd/4th year - 15.75 PPG
5th year+ - 16.0 PPG
10 games will be the minimum to count as a season

Or do you wanna change any of the parameters?

 

[@GregoryLKellogg]

Very nice work. But what about guys like Amon ra St. Brown? I had always thought that most WRs break out in year two or three. Your study seems to show 1 and two. Would be interestting to know how many 1st round WRs break out in each year vs. 2nd rounders and so on.

Great question. Before I start crunching numbers, lemme ask - what stat thresholds do you want me use? Same as in the OP?

Rookie - 15.0 PPG
2nd year - 15.5 PPG
3rd/4th year - 15.75 PPG
5th year+ - 16.0 PPG
10 games will be the minimum to count as a season

Or do you wanna change any of the parameters?

The only thing I would change would be to use the WR12 average as the baseline for a breakout season. And if you are looking over multiple years, maybe average the WR12 numbers to get a fixed point to compare.

 

[Biabreakable]

As for increasing the threshold as years go on, I did it in the TE thread, so I just did it here. I guess the list would just be longer if I kept 15 PPG for all seasons.

But is that a bad thing? I would think the point is to identify players that meet a threshold you deem as worthy to be considered a "breakout". Moving that seems like it would skew the data a bit but maybe I don't understand what you are really doing with it.

I agree it seems arbitrary. But I also think it seems somewhat intuitive, though I don't know exactly why I feel that way. I guess a possible reason is that a rookie having a very solid season is less expected and therefore (intuitively, though I don't know about statistically) indicative of a higher career ceiling. If a guy scores 8.3, 9.3, 15.6 ppg in his first three seasons, and another guy scores 15.6 ppg in his rookie season, and that's all the data I have, I'm more impressed by the rookie and expect a better future out of him.

Yeah. I really don't know why I chose to increase up to year 5. It just seemed like a good idea. In the end, I am just a stat nerd and wanted to research something. By the way, I am open to digging through any other kind of stats. Got any ideas? Perhaps something like are left-footed kickers more accurate?

What about simply the best fantasy seasons over the past so many years, for a certain position, and what age the player was for those seasons. Do the best WR seasons happen around 26? 28? Best RB seasons at 23? 26? Regardless of what the player did for other seasons. Probably been done before I guess.

That link I had posted in an earlier response did exactly this but by years of service instead of age.

It was close, growth was not always linear, but that article showed RB's had most fantasy points in year two, both WR's and TE's in year 5. (*that work was done last year, so not sure how much might have changed, probably not a lot)

As far as RB go yes year 2 was the best season, the rookie season the worst and after the 6th season the ones who were still getting positive VBD were few and far between.

My sample was 30 seasons iirc

 

[TheWinz]

Very nice work. But what about guys like Amon ra St. Brown? I had always thought that most WRs break out in year two or three. Your study seems to show 1 and two. Would be interestting to know how many 1st round WRs break out in each year vs. 2nd rounders and so on.

Great question. Before I start crunching numbers, lemme ask - what stat thresholds do you want me use? Same as in the OP?

Rookie - 15.0 PPG
2nd year - 15.5 PPG
3rd/4th year - 15.75 PPG
5th year+ - 16.0 PPG
10 games will be the minimum to count as a season

Or do you wanna change any of the parameters?

The only thing I would change would be to use the WR12 average as the baseline for a breakout season. And if you are looking over multiple years, maybe average the WR12 numbers to get a fixed point to compare.

WR12 points per game or WR12 overall? Also, PPR or no PPR?

 

[LawFitz]

Odell Beckham Jr - 24.8 PPG in 2014 - drafted 1.12

I forgot what a monster he was back half of that first season.

 

[Biabreakable]

I think Diggs broke out in training camp.

He just had curmudgeon coaches, didn't play until his 5th game. Did great for 4 weeks in a row but got injured.

It was very much a running team then also. That's why Diggs wanted to be traded.

 

[Ray Barboni]

From my experience, the good WR’s breakout on other people’s teams - which makes me very sad.

JSN is my only hope. I will fully admit, I’ve always drafted RB’s that hit, but have a bad track record at getting that stud WR (during rookie drafts of course) that truly breaks out.

Maybe it’s Donte Thornton for me this year?

Now, a significant part of me “missing” on WR’s is that I’ve never really had a high rookie pick.

But still, I’ve managed to hit on plenty of later round RB’s … never been lucky/smart enough to hit on a late WR breakout.

 

[Ilov80s]

I think looking at players who took a 2,3,4 years and seeing if there is a connection as to why they took so long could be helpful. Also looking the difference between players who breakout and repeat it vs the the players who break out once and never do it again. Are there commonalities like injury, attached to bad offenses, outlier TD season, etc

 

[Ilov80s]

Some of these guys have correlations that I think have 0 to do with the players themselves and more to do with massive changes (especially at QB) around them, for example:

2012 Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas broke out less due to them suddenly being better, and more Denver going from Tim Tebow to Peyton Manning.
2007 Wes Welker went from Cleo Lemon (remember him?) to Tom Brady.

I think we can throw those guys off the list. Their breakout years are irrelevant.

It is relevant in the sense that WRs are still finding themselves in new QB situations and we need to be reminded of how big an impact a great QB can have on receivers- even veteran receivers who hadn't made big fantasy impacts yet. Pickens to Dallas being a good example. Not that Dak is Manning but he's also 1 season removed from 4500 and 36. It's easy too see how Pickens could see a big 4th year jump in his numbers. Jakobi Myers is another guy who's been really consistent in his career with some awful QB play. Geno being above average and Myers could have a career year.

 

[@GregoryLKellogg]

Very nice work. But what about guys like Amon ra St. Brown? I had always thought that most WRs break out in year two or three. Your study seems to show 1 and two. Would be interestting to know how many 1st round WRs break out in each year vs. 2nd rounders and so on.

Great question. Before I start crunching numbers, lemme ask - what stat thresholds do you want me use? Same as in the OP?

Rookie - 15.0 PPG
2nd year - 15.5 PPG
3rd/4th year - 15.75 PPG
5th year+ - 16.0 PPG
10 games will be the minimum to count as a season

Or do you wanna change any of the parameters?

The only thing I would change would be to use the WR12 average as the baseline for a breakout season. And if you are looking over multiple years, maybe average the WR12 numbers to get a fixed point to compare.

WR12 points per game or WR12 overall? Also, PPR or no PPR?

You can do either PPR or standard. My guess is that they will somewhat mirror each other. Personally I prefer PPR because I think it is the more prevalent format. Total Points is more meaningful than PPR because it eliminates injury considerations.

 

[TheWinz]

Very nice work. But what about guys like Amon ra St. Brown? I had always thought that most WRs break out in year two or three. Your study seems to show 1 and two. Would be interestting to know how many 1st round WRs break out in each year vs. 2nd rounders and so on.

Great question. Before I start crunching numbers, lemme ask - what stat thresholds do you want me use? Same as in the OP?

Rookie - 15.0 PPG
2nd year - 15.5 PPG
3rd/4th year - 15.75 PPG
5th year+ - 16.0 PPG
10 games will be the minimum to count as a season

Or do you wanna change any of the parameters?

The only thing I would change would be to use the WR12 average as the baseline for a breakout season. And if you are looking over multiple years, maybe average the WR12 numbers to get a fixed point to compare.

WR12 points per game or WR12 overall? Also, PPR or no PPR?

You can do either PPR or standard. My guess is that they will somewhat mirror each other. Personally I prefer PPR because I think it is the more prevalent format. Total Points is more meaningful than PPR because it eliminates injury considerations.

OK, I will do full PPR and total points vs points per game, and only count players who finish as WR12 or better overall finish. This is gonna take a while, mostly because I do it by hand, and will go back to 2005. That way I will have 20 seasons worth of data, and that's a very good sample size. But, there will be no asterisks, meaning if some WR finishes WR13 by a single yard, he doesn't exist.

 

[TheWinz]

1st round WR's to finish WR12 or better in rookie season
2014 - 1.12 - WR7 - Odell Beckham Jr
2020 - 1.22 - WR7 - Justin Jefferson
2021 - 1.5 - WR5 - Ja'Marr Chase
2021 - 1.6 - WR12 - Jaylen Waddle
2024 - 1.6 - WR6 - Malik Nabers
2024 - 1.23 - WR5 - Brian Thomas Jr

2nd round WR's to finish WR12 or better in rookie season
2016 - 2.47 - WR7 - Michael Thomas

5th round WR's to finish WR12 or better in rookie season
2023 - 5.177 - WR4 - Puka Nacua

Let's chop this up to make it easier to digest. Above are the only rookies to finish as a WR1 over the last 20 years. Small list, and pretty evident that being a 1st round pick is very important. Obviously a very large factor is the amount of playing time a first rounder gets versus a later draft choice. I expect the year 2 list to be quite a bit longer, but we will see...

 

[TheWinz]

1st round WR's to finish WR12 or better in second season
2005 - 1.3 - WR2 - Larry Fitzgerald
2008 - 1.2 - WR3 - Calvin Johnson
2010 - 1.29 - WR8 - Hakeem Nicks
2012 - 1.4 - WR3 - AJ Green
2012 - 1.6 - WR11 - Julio Jones
2015 - 1.12 - WR5 - Odell Beckham Jr - 2nd time on the list
2021 - 1.22 - WR4 - Justin Jefferson - 2nd time on the list
2022 - 1.6 - WR8 - Jaylen Waddle - 2nd time on the list
2022 - 1.10 - WR9 - DeVonta Smith
2022 - 1.5 - WR10 - Ja'Marr Chase - 2nd time on the list
2024 - 1.20 - WR10 - Jaxon Smith-Njigba

2nd round WR's to finish WR12 or better in second season
2009 - 2.49 - WR11 - DeSean Jackson
2013 - 2.45 - WR8 - Alshon Jeffery
2015 - 2.61 - WR6 - Allen Robinson
2015 - 2.63 - WR11 - Jarvis Landry
2017 - 2.47 - WR6 - Michael Thomas - 2nd time on the list
2018 - 2.62 - WR8 - Juju Smith-Schuster
2020 - 2.64 - WR6 - DK Metcalf

3rd round WR's to finish WR12 or better in second season
2010 - 3.84 - WR9 - Mike Wallace

4th round WR's to finish WR12 or better in second season
2007 - 4.119 - WR9 - Brandon Marshall
2022 - 4.112 - WR7 - Amon-Ra St. Brown

5th round WR's to finish WR12 or better in second season
2017 - 5.165 - WR9 - Tyreek Hill

7th round WR's to finish WR12 or better in second season
2007 - 7.252 - WR8 - Marques Colston

Supplemental draft WR's to finish WR12 or better in second season
2013 - WR2 - Josh Gordon

Undrafted WR's to finish WR12 or better in second season
2011 - WR3 - Victor Cruz

Above are the only 2nd year WR's to finish as a WR1 over the last 20 years. As expected the list grew quite a bit, especially for those 2nd rounders. Still, few and far between for the folks in rounds 3 and later. Now you can see why guys like Amon and Tyreek play with a chip on their shoulder. Also, I will be bolding the folks with multiple WR1 finishes as the lists continue.

 

[TheWinz]

1st round WR's to finish WR12 or better in third season
2006 - 1.13 - WR8 - Lee Evans
2006 - 1.7 - WR9 - Roy Williams
2007 - 1.3 - WR4 - Braylon Edwards
2011 - 1.22 - WR8 - Percy Harvin
2011 - 1.29 - WR12 - Hakeem Nicks - 2nd time on the list
2012 - 1.24 - WR4 - Dez Bryant
2012 - 1.22 - WR5 - Demaryius Thomas
2013 - 1.4 - WR4 - AJ Green - 2nd time on the list
2015 - 1.27 - WR4 - DeAndre Hopkins
2016 - 1.7 - WR3 - Mike Evans
2015 - 1.12 - WR4 - Odell Beckham Jr - 3rd time on the list
2016 - 1.20 - WR10 - Brandin Cooks
2020 - 1.26 - WR5 - Calvin Ridley
2022 - 1.22 - WR1 - Justin Jefferson - 3rd time on the list
2022 - 1.17 - WR6 - CeeDee Lamb
2023 - 1.5 - WR11 - Ja'Marr Chase - 3rd time on the list
2024 - 1.8 - WR4 - Drake London
2024 - 1.10 - WR9 - Garrett Wilson

2nd round WR's to finish WR12 or better in third season
2005 - 2.54 - WR5 - Anquan Boldin
2008 - 2.52 - WR7 - Greg Jennings
2009 - 2.51 - WR8 - Steve Smith - not the great one, the one with 1 fantasy relevant season
2009 - 2.44 - WR10 - Sidney Rice
2014 - 2.45 - WR10 - Alshon Jeffery - 2nd time on the list
2016 - 2.53 - WR9 - Davante Adams
2018 - 2.47 - WR6 - Michael Thomas - 3rd time on the list
2021 - 2.36 - WR3 - Deebo Samuel

3rd round WR's to finish WR12 or better in third season
2011 - 3.84 - WR9 - Mike Wallace - 2nd time on the list
2012 - 3.87 - WR9 - Eric Decker
2014 - 3.92 - WR11 - T.Y. Hilton
2019 - 3.84 - WR2 - Chris Godwin
2019 - 3.69 - WR4 - Cooper Kupp
2019 - 3.96 - WR9 - Kenny Golladay
2021 - 3.66 - WR8 - Diontae Johnson
2023 - 3.89 - WR12 - Nico Collins

4th round WR's to finish WR12 or better in third season
2008 - 4.119 - WR5 - Brandon Marshall - 2nd time on the list
2023 - 4.112 - WR3 - Amon-Ra St. Brown - 2nd time on the list

5th round WR's to finish WR12 or better in third season
2018 - 5.165 - WR3 - Tyreek Hill - 2nd time on the list
2021 - 5.149 - WR10 - Hunter Renfrow

7th round WR's to finish WR12 or better in third season
2010 - 7.224 - WR10 - Stevie Johnson

Above are the only 3rd year WR's to finish as a WR1 over the last 20 years. This time we see a big jump in the amount of 3rd rounders, but those in rounds 4 and beyond are still minimal. Again, I will be bolding the folks with multiple WR1 finishes as the lists continue.

 

[TheWinz]

Just a fun fact - of all the WR's over the last 20 years to finish as THE WR1, 17 of them have been in their 4th thru 7th seasons. The only 3 outside these years were Justin Jefferson (3rd season), Randy Moss (10th season), and Marvin Harrison (11th season).

 

[LawFitz]

Interesting data, but what conclusions can we draw?

 

[TheWinz]

Interesting data, but what conclusions can we draw?

I'm just running the numbers because someone asked

Anyway, after the first 3 years of data, my main thoughts are that 2nd rounders don't break out until year 2, and 3rd rounders don't break out until year 3. There are always outliers, but it seems the majority fall into these groups. I am taking a break and will do year 4 later.

 

[TheWinz]

1st round WR's to finish WR12 or better in fourth season
2006 - 1.3 - WR11 - Andre Johnson
2007 - 1.3 - WR5 - Larry Fitzgerald - 2nd time on the list
2008 - 1.27 - WR4 - Roddy White
2010 - 1.23 - WR4 - Dwayne Bowe
2010 - 1.2 - WR6 - Calvin Johnson - 2nd time on the list
2013 - 1.22 - WR1 - Demaryius Thomas - 2nd time on the list
2013 - 1.24 - WR7 - Dez Bryant - 2nd time on the list
2014 - 1.6 - WR6 - Julio Jones - 2nd time on the list
2023 - 1.17 - WR1 - CeeDee Lamb - 2nd time on the list
2024 - 1.5 - WR1 - Ja'Marr Chase - 4th time on the list

2nd round WR's to finish WR12 or better in fourth season
2011 - 2.36 - WR4 - Jordy Nelson
2014 - 2.64 - WR8 - Randall Cobb
2017 - 2.63 - WR4 - Jarvis Landry - 2nd time on the list
2019 - 2.47 - WR1 - Michael Thomas - 4th time on the list
2022 - 2.51 - WR5 - AJ Brown

3rd round WR's to finish WR12 or better in fourth season
2013 - 3.87 - WR9 - Eric Decker - 2nd time on the list

4th round WR's to finish WR12 or better in fourth season
2009 - 4.119 - WR7 - Brandon Marshall - 3rd time on the list
2024 - 4.112 - WR2 - Amon-Ra St. Brown - 3rd time on the list

5th round WR's to finish WR12 or better in fourth season
2018 - 5.146 - WR11 - Stefon Diggs

6th round WR's to finish WR12 or better in fourth season
2013 - 6.195 - WR3 - Antonio Brown

Undrafted WR's to finish WR12 or better in fourth season
2007 - WR10 - Wes Welker
2009 - WR6 - Miles Austin

Above are the only 4th year WR's to finish as a WR1 over the last 20 years. The list dropped from 39 down to 22 going from year 3 to year 4. Kind of shocking actually. Also, you do notice the bolded players become more plentiful, as they should.

 

[taylormeetstheismann]

@TheWinz Outstanding data!

 

[taylormeetstheismann]

FWIW… I’d probably re-define breakout as a Top 25 or Top 30 performance as Top 12 seems limiting. I’d be thrilled to have a rookie or second year WR end up ranked #18 as they are going to be starter worthy. Even ranked #27 they are starter worthy even if I’d prefer to have stronger options at WR3.

 

[Instinctive]

This would seem to bode fairly well for Xavier Worthy, Keon Coleman, and Ricky Pearsall

Quite a few round 2 and round 1 second year breakouts. A few third years too but it seems like recently they've trended to second year.

 

[renesauz]

As for increasing the threshold as years go on, I did it in the TE thread, so I just did it here. I guess the list would just be longer if I kept 15 PPG for all seasons.

But is that a bad thing? I would think the point is to identify players that meet a threshold you deem as worthy to be considered a "breakout". Moving that seems like it would skew the data a bit but maybe I don't understand what you are really doing with it.

I agree it seems arbitrary. But I also think it seems somewhat intuitive, though I don't know exactly why I feel that way. I guess a possible reason is that a rookie having a very solid season is less expected and therefore (intuitively, though I don't know about statistically) indicative of a higher career ceiling. If a guy scores 8.3, 9.3, 15.6 ppg in his first three seasons, and another guy scores 15.6 ppg in his rookie season, and that's all the data I have, I'm more impressed by the rookie and expect a better future out of him.

agreed. A rookie scoring 14 ppg is far more impressive then as 4th year player scoring 14 ppg...and every one of us would also bet the rookie with be scoring MORE then that 14 ppg in his 4th year

 

[TheWinz]

FWIW… I’d probably re-define breakout as a Top 25 or Top 30 performance as Top 12 seems limiting. I’d be thrilled to have a rookie or second year WR end up ranked #18 as they are going to be starter worthy. Even ranked #27 they are starter worthy even if I’d prefer to have stronger options at WR3.

Agreed. I think it should get tougher for the first few seasons. As you said, if a rookie finishes as a fantasy relevant asset, they are likely on their way to greatness, or at least goodness. Ladd McConkey finished with 82/1149/7, but he didn't make the list because he didn't finish 2 spots higher? That was 100% a breakout year! Most leagues can start at least 3 WR's, so perhaps something like:
Rookie - top 36
2nd year - top 24
3rd year and beyond - top 12

 

[taylormeetstheismann]

FWIW… I’d probably re-define breakout as a Top 25 or Top 30 performance as Top 12 seems limiting. I’d be thrilled to have a rookie or second year WR end up ranked #18 as they are going to be starter worthy. Even ranked #27 they are starter worthy even if I’d prefer to have stronger options at WR3.

Agreed. I think it should get tougher for the first few seasons. As you said, if a rookie finishes as a fantasy relevant asset, they are likely on their way to greatness, or at least goodness. Ladd McConkey finished with 82/1149/7, but he didn't make the list because he didn't finish 2 spots higher? That was 100% a breakout year! Most leagues can start at least 3 WR's, so perhaps something like:
Rookie - top 36
2nd year - top 24
3rd year and beyond - top 12

I love running the numbers for insights and you’ve done well here. I typically will run numbers in a lot of different directions to calibrate insights.

What did you use as source data? FBG end of season rankings on the player profiles?

 

[TheWinz]

FWIW… I’d probably re-define breakout as a Top 25 or Top 30 performance as Top 12 seems limiting. I’d be thrilled to have a rookie or second year WR end up ranked #18 as they are going to be starter worthy. Even ranked #27 they are starter worthy even if I’d prefer to have stronger options at WR3.

Agreed. I think it should get tougher for the first few seasons. As you said, if a rookie finishes as a fantasy relevant asset, they are likely on their way to greatness, or at least goodness. Ladd McConkey finished with 82/1149/7, but he didn't make the list because he didn't finish 2 spots higher? That was 100% a breakout year! Most leagues can start at least 3 WR's, so perhaps something like:
Rookie - top 36
2nd year - top 24
3rd year and beyond - top 12

I love running the numbers for insights and you’ve done well here. I typically will run numbers in a lot of different directions to calibrate insights.

What did you use as source data? FBG end of season rankings on the player profiles?

Yes, FBG stats are easy to view and accurate. But I don't view them on the player profiles. I use the player stats under the tools dropdown menu. They only go back about 20 years, but that's certainly all the sample size needed. I always use full PPR scoring as well, as that's what all my leagues are. And I prefer to use end of season rankings, because it's just too hard doing points per game. If you try that, you end up setting your own cutoffs, like saying QB Joe Milton was QB6 last year, because he actually was if you use points per game. Here's a quick link...

https://www.footballguys.com/playerhistoricalstats?pos=wr&yr=2024&startwk=1&stopwk=18&profile=p

 

[Insein]

FWIW… I’d probably re-define breakout as a Top 25 or Top 30 performance as Top 12 seems limiting. I’d be thrilled to have a rookie or second year WR end up ranked #18 as they are going to be starter worthy. Even ranked #27 they are starter worthy even if I’d prefer to have stronger options at WR3.

Agreed. I think it should get tougher for the first few seasons. As you said, if a rookie finishes as a fantasy relevant asset, they are likely on their way to greatness, or at least goodness. Ladd McConkey finished with 82/1149/7, but he didn't make the list because he didn't finish 2 spots higher? That was 100% a breakout year! Most leagues can start at least 3 WR's, so perhaps something like:
Rookie - top 36
2nd year - top 24
3rd year and beyond - top 12

I figured guys like Ladd, BTJ and Nabers didn't make the list because they're not in their 4th year yet.