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When do we go in and wipe out ISIS? (1 Viewer)

The Future Champs said:
Seriously?   Where is the meaningful criticism coming from?   
There is no real criticism from mass media.  The whole point of it is to normalize and sanitize the behavior of the government.  They'll talk about war in terms of 'casualties' and use very clean jargon when it's the US causing death/destruction and maybe show a picture of a map, but roll the red carpet out for any type of violence against the West.  That's why there's a huge sympathy campaign when something happens in Paris but nothing for brown people being annihilated by US airstrikes before Trump eats his breakfast.  It is such a frequent and regular occurrence it hardly even gets reported anymore.  No images of mothers in mourning or fathers holding their dead son in their arms.  No facebook picture flags for them.  The moral of the story is their lives do not matter.  

The stuff about news from social media is a total strawmeme.  You might as well say 'news from the internet'.  As far as 'sewing discord' none of it would work if there weren't huge divisions in society already.  It's not like the anger over police disproportionately murdering nonviolent black people is a Russian psyop.  The notion that any of this is somehow a Russian scheme is honestly pretty insulting.  

 
There is no real criticism from mass media.  The whole point of it is to normalize and sanitize the behavior of the government.  They'll talk about war in terms of 'casualties' and use very clean jargon when it's the US causing death/destruction and maybe show a picture of a map, but roll the red carpet out for any type of violence against the West.  That's why there's a huge sympathy campaign when something happens in Paris but nothing for brown people being annihilated by US airstrikes before Trump eats his breakfast.  It is such a frequent and regular occurrence it hardly even gets reported anymore.  No images of mothers in mourning or fathers holding their dead son in their arms.  No facebook picture flags for them.  The moral of the story is their lives do not matter.  

The stuff about news from social media is a total strawmeme.  You might as well say 'news from the internet'.  As far as 'sewing discord' none of it would work if there weren't huge divisions in society already.  It's not like the anger over police disproportionately murdering nonviolent black people is a Russian psyop.  The notion that any of this is somehow a Russian scheme is honestly pretty insulting.  
You find it insulting, b/c it destroys your cherished notion that social media is superior to the traditional news media.   You are the target for the bots and the fake news.  

 
'We will get him': the long hunt for Isis leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi

Day and night for the past three years, an unprecedented number of the world’s spies have zeroed in on a patch of Iraq and Syria to hunt for one man. Their target, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of the Islamic State terrorist group, has eluded them all. But only just.

The most wanted man on the planet has been traced to a specific place at least three times in the past 18 months alone. And despite the protection of a devoted network, there have been other sightings of the reclusive leader, reported by Isis members shortly afterwards and confirmed later by intelligence officers. Being a fugitive in the digital age, or in a losing cause, clearly has its shortfalls.

One 45-second mistake on 3 November 2016 almost cost Baghdadi his “caliphate” before its collapse last year. As Iraqi and Kurdish forces advanced on Mosul, Baghdadi took up a handheld radio in a village between the west of the city and the town of Tal Afar. Spies based in a listening post further north were stunned as his distinctive voice exhorted followers to stand their ground.

“He spoke for 45 seconds and then his guards took the radio from him,” said a senior member of the Kurdistan Region Security Council who monitored the call. “They realised what he’d done.”

That rare moment of ill discipline allowed the network of spies chasing Baghdadi to trace him in real time. But then, as on at least two other occasions, there was no time to act. Baghdadi’s entourage knew his cover had probably been blown and whisked him away.

Late last year, he was also traced to a village south of Baaj, again through the brief and careless use of a communications device. The connection was picked up by a signals intelligence network that has penetrated web and phone use in Isis areas. However, it was too fleeting to deploy fighter jets circling above on permanent hunt for targets, and there was no confirmation of exactly where he was hiding.

The morsels of chatter have helped fill in a picture of Baghdadi’s movements – and temperament; the cast-iron discipline of his immediate circle has weak spots after all. His senior leaders, however, have had far more trouble with communications discipline, and slip-ups have often led to their demise.

According to Hisham al-Hashimi, an Iraqi expert and writer on Isis, Baghdadi is literally the last man standing among the group’s founding members. 

“Out of 43 main leaders, Baghdadi is the only one left,” he said. “Out of 79 senior leaders there are only 10 left. The mid-level commanders (124) constantly change positions and posts due to deaths of other members. Every six months their roles change, they either get killed or replaced.”

‘Everything changed when he arrived’

Before being killed, some Isis leaders spoke on intercepted phones about having been in meetings with Baghdadi, or having known his movements. Their mistakes offered glimpses of his capacity and methods as leader. However, more has been gleaned about the terrorist tsar’s habits and leadership by people who have seen him regularly in parts of north-western Iraq and north-eastern Syria, and reported the encounters afterwards to regional and western spies.

From late 2014 until her capture in May the following year, Nisreen Assad Ibrahim Bahar had served tea to Baghdadi in the town of Omar in north-eastern Syria, whenever he came to visit her husband, the Isis oil “minister” Abu Sayyaf.

“All I did is put the tea behind the door,” she told the Guardian. “But I knew he was there. He used to come often.” Bahar, otherwise known as Umm Sayyaf, said she was not allowed to see Baghdadi but was in no doubt when he was around. 

“He used to visit my husband and talk business. Everything changed when he arrived.” 

Abu Sayyaf was killed in a raid by US commandos, who took Bahar to Erbil, where she has been held ever since. She denies being a senior member of Isis, but her contact with the group’s leader has helped paint a picture of him.

A more comprehensive psychological profile of Baghdadi and his movement patterns had been drafted by US and British spies by mid-2015. Two years later, his area of travel had shrunk, as had the Isis “caliphate”. 

Intelligence agencies in Iraq and Europe believe that for most of the past 18 months, Baghdadi has been based in a village south of Baaj, and has travelled in a small range between Abu Kamal, on the Iraq-Syria border, and Shirkat, south of Mosul.

Three intelligence agencies have confirmed that Baghdadi was seriously wounded in an airstrike near Shirkat in early 2015. Separate sources have confirmed to the Guardian that he spent several months recovering in Baaj. Even now, his movements remain limited by his injuries. 

According to witnesses who saw him in Abu Kamal after the end of the Muslim festival of Ramadan, he was looking tired and drawn, a shadow of the confident, black-robed figure who ascended a pulpit in Mosul’s Great Mosque of al-Nuri in mid-2014 to proclaim the “caliphate’s establishment”.

Hashimi said: “Isis has resorted to being a shadow government. They still control small parts of Anbar and Euphrates river but they are sleeper cells. There is no leadership structure, it has dissolved. They do not hold meetings any more – and if they do it is never in the same place twice. They don’t even pass oral messages to each other any more. They use Signal and Telegram [encrypted apps] to communicate. 

“They’ve cut back the men by 50%. The main budget cannot be touched any more. Leadership no longer matters.

“I’ve met with [foreign fighter] Abu Hamza al-Belgiki, who feels betrayed, as do all of them. They had been instructed to fight for Mosul till their deaths. When the battles intensified in the city the senior leaders and those close to Baghdadi all fled, leaving these fighters behind. They feel fooled. They have been fooled.”

Threat remains

Throughout the rise and fall of Isis, a debate has continued in intelligence circles about whether Baghdadi being dead or alive would make a difference to the group, and if the organisation still poses a threat to regional order and global security. A senior regional intelligence figure and a counterpart in Europe both say the threat level from the organisation has barely changed, and that Baghdadi’s survival could be used by his followers as a rallying call.

Officials say the branch responsible for planning attacks abroad has been left relatively unscathed by the losses of fighters and land.

“They are a complex administration filled with ex-intelligence officials,” Hashimi said. “They deal with recruiting, arming and transporting fighters and collect the financial contributions and alms. Out of 35 branches, 33 are run by two Iraqi men: Abdullah Youssef al-Khatouri, nicknamed Abu Bakr, and Abu Tiba Ghanem al-Jboori. We believe one is in Turkey and the other is in Scandinavia.”

Shiraz Maher, the deputy director of the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation and Political Violence, at King’s College London, said Isis was trying to convince its followers that military defeat had changed little, particularly in its capacity for planning attacks abroad.

“In the next 24 months there will be concerted attempts to attack the west,” Maher said. “The narrative of vengeance is important.

“What we are seeing in the support community is a fatalistic resignation about what has happened. “In their narrative, they say the US could only defeat the “caliphate” by attacking it from the air but didn’t have the guts to fight on the ground. Had that been the case, they say, they would have won.

“Isis says it will return, and in the meantime it’s asking people to carry out attacks in its name. They’re also repositioning themselves politically, for example, with Trump’s declaration on Jerusalem, claiming to be the rightful guardians of that cause. This is the mutation of an idea, not the end of it.”

And as Isis regroups, so does Baghdadi. A US military assessment is that he is probably hiding in the Euphrates river valley, along the border with Syria. However, regional officials say he has returned to a tract of land between the Tharthar basin and the desert, nearer to where it all began for the now diminished leader and his downsized terror group.

“He’s on his last legs,” a regional official said. “We will get him this year. Finally.”
Good read on Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi

 
ISIS still has up to 10,000 loyalists in Syria and Iraq, warn experts

The Iraqi government has declared victory over ISIS, and President Donald Trump has taken credit for the Islamic caliphate's collapse.

"ISIS is now giving up, they are giving up, there are raising their hands, they are walking off. Nobody has ever seen that before," said the president during an October interview on WMAL's "The Chris Plante Show."

But experts both in and outside the U.S. government warn that ISIS remains a lethal force, as shown by a double suicide bombing in Baghdad Monday that killed 100. As the caliphate has collapsed the number of active fighters in Syria and Iraq may have dropped below 3,000, there are many more ISIS loyalists still on the scene.

Hassan Hassan, coauthor of the book "ISIS: Inside the Army of Terror," estimates that some 7,000 ISIS-loyalists remain.

"They operate as a terrorist and insurgent organization almost purely now, versus as a conventional fighting unit," said Hassan, a senior fellow at the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy. "There are still so many in Syria, in the Abu Kamal and Deir al-Zour areas. A lot of them are Iraqis who fled across the border."

Hisham al-Hashimi, an adviser to the Iraqi government in its battle against ISIS, told NBC News that while the number of active fighters on the battlefield is probably in the range of 1,000 to 1,500, the actual number of ISIS-loyalists in Iraq and Syria is closer to 10,000.

At its peak, according to U.S. officials, ISIS had 45,000 fighters active in the area where the U.S. led coalition is operating.

Since airstrikes in Iraq and Syria began in 2014 under the Obama administration, a territory that was once the size of Ohio has been almost entirely recaptured by coalition-backed forces.

The terror group's two biggest strongholds, Mosul in Iraq and its de facto capital of Raqqa in Syria fell in July and October respectively to coalition-backed forces.

Trump has given significant leeway to the Department of Defense to carry out its mission and help local ground forces liberate the remaining territory.

Trump pointed to his leadership as one of the key factors driving ISIS fighters off the battlefield.

"I totally changed rules of engagement. I totally changed our military, I totally changed the attitudes of the military and they have done a fantastic job," Trump said in his interview with Chris Plante.

ISIS has not only lost territory, but it is being denied access to revenue sources such as oil and gas and cash reserves that once amounted to more than $1 billion in 2014. ISIS had also generated some $30 million per month in Iraq from taxation and extortion in 2015, according to Iraqi and U.S. government estimates.

Trump has vowed to end the "current [U.S.] strategy of nation-building and regime change" because he says it doesn't work. In outlining the pillars of his Afghanistan strategy last summer, Trump said the U.S. is not about nation building, but rather, "killing terrorists."

But recent history has taught the U.S. some harsh lessons about withdrawing from conflicts too soon. Former President George W. Bush struck an agreement with the Iraqi government that called for a withdrawal of U.S. troops by December 2011.

Obama stuck to that schedule, believing that the Iraqis needed to stand on their own while the U.S. turned its attention to the domestic economy and other pressing needs at home and abroad — what he called "nation-building at home." But the rise of the Islamic State group, an offshoot of the dormant al-Qaeda in Iraq, forced American forces back to Iraq and Syria, first in the form of airstrikes and later, an advise and assist mission and the use of special forces.

"There is a big difference between defeating them militarily on the battlefield and eliminating ISIS as a terrorist organization," said Daniel Glasser, the Treasury Department's assistant secretary for terrorist financing under former President Barack Obama.

Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said in December that U.S.-backed forces were in the process of "crushing the life" out of ISIS.

"We told you that the [ISIS] caliphate was going to go down," Mattis added, and "as we sit here today at the end of 2017, the caliphate is on the run, we're breaking them."

But he also said the "war is not over." Mattis emphasized that much work remained to prevent the emergence of what the retired four-star general called "ISIS 2.0," noting that the group may attempt to return to its modest, low-budget terror roots in an effort to once again exploit sectarian rifts in Iraq and Syria.

On Friday, the Pentagon released a National Defense Strategy that said terrorism remained "a persistent condition ... despite the defeat of ISIS's physical caliphate."

A day earlier, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, laying out the Trump administration's broad strategy for Syria, said a quick withdrawal from Syria would give the jihadist group an opportunity to make a comeback.

"The United States will maintain a military presence in Syria focused on ensuring Isil cannot re-emerge," he said, using an alternate acronym for the group. "We cannot make the same mistakes that were made in 2011 when a premature departure from Iraq allowed al-Qaeda in Iraq to survive and eventually morph into Isil."

This week's suicide bombing in one of Baghdad's busiest public squares rattled the city's growing sense of security. And while ISIS is no longer earning millions from oil and extortion, it has reverted to raising funds from charities and wealthy donors.

U.S. estimates of the terror group's remaining strength, meanwhile, are similar to those offered by outside experts. Like Hassan and al-Hashimi's figures, recent U.S. public estimates of active ISIS fighters have ranged from 3,000 to 1,000, with the number falling rapidly.

On background, U.S. officials say they estimate ISIS non-battlefield strength in Iraq and Syria at 6,000 to 8,000, in line with Hassan's figure but lower than al-Hashimi's of 10,000, which includes potential lone-wolf attackers.

ISIS is "transforming into a new threat," said Glasser, who is now a principal at the Financial Integrity Network. "They don't have this safe haven and it makes it harder for them to plan catastrophic attacks on us, but at the same time the threat is very much still there, and more diffuse and a little bit less predictable." 

 
And so, our allies the Turks are attacking our allies the Kurds in Northern Syria. 

Who could have seen that coming...

 
https://www.axios.com/isis-leader-al-baghdadi-alive-but-wounded-1518452587-909a1258-9f6b-4d79-b66b-62b49633dcc6.html

ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is wounded and being treated at a medical facility in northeastern Syria, a senior Iraqi intelligence official told government-run newspaper al-Sabah on Monday. Al-Baghdadi was injured in an airstrike last May and forced to give up control of the terror group for up to five months while he recovered, according to CNN.

The backdrop: Al-Baghdadi is the elected "caliph" of the Islamic State and one of the most wanted men in the world. Rumors of his death or incapacitation have circulated at least a dozen times since 2015, but Iraq's Ministry of Interior is confirming the latest reports with a high degree of confidence.

"We have irrefutable information and documents from sources within the terrorist organisation that al-Baghdadi is still alive and hiding with the help of his collaborators."

— Abu Ali al-Basri, Iraq's intelligence and counterterrorism department chief

Al-Baghdadi is reportedly being treated for "injuries, diabetes and fractures to the body and legs that prevent him from walking without assistance," as well as a "deteriorating psychological state," al-Basri said.

The U.S. Department of Defense stated that they have seen the reports, but have nothing to confirm at this time.
Link to CNN story: https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/12/middleeast/isis-leader-abu-bakr-al-baghdadi-wounded-intl/index.html

 
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and being treated at a medical facility in northeastern Syria, a senior Iraqi intelligence official told government-run newspaper al-Sabah on Monday.
This #### drives me crazy. He's in NE Syria which should be Kurd / SDF territory, and in a hospital, and Iraq intelligence totally knows about it, but he's not captured. Ok, thanks.

 
SaintsInDome2006 said:
This #### drives me crazy. He's in NE Syria which should be Kurd / SDF territory, and in a hospital, and Iraq intelligence totally knows about it, but he's not captured. Ok, thanks.
Could be Latakia? Pretty much Assad/Putin City

ETA: But that would be a bit of a plot twist.

 
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https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/09/world/middleeast/iraq-isis-islamic-state-arrest.html?smid=tw-nytimesworld&smtyp=cur

Five senior Islamic State officials have been captured, including a top aide to the group’s leader, in a complex cross-border sting carried out by Iraqi and American intelligence, two Iraqi officials said Wednesday.

The three-month operation, which tracked a group of senior Islamic State leaders who had been hiding in Syria and Turkey, represents a significant intelligence victory for the American-led coalition fighting the extremist group and underscores the strengthening relationship between Washington and Baghdad.

Two Iraqi intelligence officials said those captured included four Iraqis and one Syrian whose responsibilities included governing the Islamic State’s territory around Deir al-Zour, Syria, directing internal security and running the administrative body that oversees religious rulings.

Iraq’s external intelligence agency published a statement confirming the arrests, but did not mention any details of the role played by the Americans or the Turks. The two Iraqi intelligence officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss details that had not been made public.

Turkey did not immediately comment on the operation. The White House and the C.I.A. declined to comment.

The developments quickly took over many Iraqi news broadcasts on Wednesday night, with news anchors praising Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi for what the intelligence service called a “major victory.” The news came at an opportune time for Mr. Abadi, who faces a tight parliamentary race on Saturday.

The two Iraqi officials said that they had been tracking several of their targets for months, but the breakthrough came at the start of the year.

An Iraqi intelligence unit responsible for undercover missions had tracked an Iraqi man, Ismail Alwaan al-Ithawi, known by the nom de guerre Abu Zeid al-Iraqi, from Syria to the Turkish city of Sakarya, about 100 miles east of Istanbul, these officials said.

Mr. Ithawi, described by the Iraqis as a top aide to the Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al- Baghdadi, had been in charge of fatwas, or religious rulings, in the Islamic State’s so-called caliphate. He was also in charge of the education curriculum, and was a member of the body that appointed security and administrative leaders for the Islamic State’s territory, which had included large parts of Iraq and Syria.

He had been living in Turkey with his Syrian wife under his brother’s identity, one of these officials said.

The Iraqis sent the Turks an intelligence file they had amassed on Mr. Ithawi, and the Turkish security forces arrested him on Feb. 15, and extradited him to Iraq, this official said.

Iraqi and American intelligence officials then spent weeks interrogating him, learning the details and whereabouts of other ISIS leaders in hiding, the officials said.

The American-led coalition used this information to launch an airstrike in mid-April that killed 39 suspected Islamic State members near Hajin, in the Deir al-Zour district of Syria, the second official said.

The joint Iraqi-American intelligence team then set a trap, according to these officials. They persuaded Mr. Ithawi to contact several of his Islamic State colleagues who had been hiding in Syria and lure them across the border, the officials said.

The Iraqi authorities were waiting, and arrested the group soon after they crossed the frontier, the officials said.

Those arrested included Saddam al-Jammel, a Syrian who had been the head of the Islamic State territory around Deir al-Zour, and Abu Abdel al-Haq, an Iraqi who had been the head of internal security for the group. Two other Iraqis were also arrested, the officials said.

Iraq’s state television broadcast images of four of the detainees. Wearing yellow prisoner jumpsuits, the men, some with long beards and some clean-shaven, explained in short statements their responsibilities in the Islamic State. Each appeared to be in good health.

It was unclear where they were being held or whether they had been given access to a lawyer.

Turkey made no public comment on the arrests, but frequently announces arrests of Islamic State suspects in Turkish cities. Last week, Turkish news media reported the capture of three people in Sakarya who were accused of being members of the Islamic State. The reports said one of the three was the group’s leader in Deir al-Zour.

It is not known if those arrests were related to the arrest of Mr. Ithawi.

Relations have been strained between Turkey and the United States recently, in particular over American support for the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces.

But counterterrorism cooperation between the two countries remains close. Turkey, which was criticized for allowing jihadists from all over the world open access to Syria in the early years of the Syrian war, has closed its border and rounded up hundreds of suspected Islamic State members in Turkey over the past two years.

 
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"Number of women and children who joined Isis 'significantly underestimated'"

Experts have warned of the growing threat of women and minors linked to Islamic State, suggesting that the number returning to Britain from Syria and Iraq has been significantly underestimated.

According to a new report from King’s College London, a combination of an absence of government data and a changing view within Isis of when women should take up arms means that the danger they pose is likely to be much greater than official figures suggest.

The report, from the university’s International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation, found that women had recently been actively involved in plots across the world. It said that 4,761 (13%) of 41,490 foreign citizens who became affiliated with Isis in Iraq and Syria between April 2013 and June 2018 were women. A further 4,640 (12%) were minors.

The ICSR researchers Joana Cook and Gina Vale said 850 British citizens became affiliated with Isis in Iraq and Syria, including 145 women and 50 minors. Of the 425 who returned to the UK, only two women and four minors were confirmed. The figures are believed to be vast underestimates due to an absence of official government data, they added.

“The British citizens that have now been confirmed as returning to the UK have not been differentiated by gender, or age delineation, though women and minors accounted for 23% of British IS [Isis] affiliates in Syria and Iraq,” said Cook.

“We believe some women may now pose a particular security threat based on several factors. These include the physical security roles and related training that some women have undertaken in IS-held territory, and the potential to transfer or apply these skills in other locations, or to their children.

“The narratives within IS itself related to women’s roles in combat have also evolved, broadening the circumstances under which women may be asked to take up arms. We have also seen women active in IS-linked plots (directed or inspired by the group) in countries such as France, Morocco, Kenya, Indonesia and the US, suggesting that women are indeed important to consider as potential threats.”

The report, From Daesh to Diaspora: tracing the women and minors of Islamic State, said the threat posed by women’s “evolving and seemingly increasing roles as perpetrators of terrorist attacks” has appeared to take three general forms: women-only cells, family cells, or individual women perpetrating attacks.

In October 2016 in Morocco, 10 women were arrested for plotting a suicide attack during parliamentary elections, four of which had seemingly married Isis members in Iraq and Syria over the internet.

Last year, British security services foiled a terror attack on the British Museum in London, and the country’s first all-female terror cell linked to Isis was arrested and convicted this year. Safaa Boular, a British teenager who went on to marry an Isis fighter online, was part-radicalised by a female Australian national in Syria.

Researchers said while Isis frequently brought to mind “images of masked men waving the black flag of IS, fighting on the battlefield, or in more brutal scenes carrying out theatrically staged executions”, it was the assistance of those with specialised skills including judges, doctors and engineers, and the presence and support of women and minors, that helped legitimise its vision.

Women played a variety of roles that went beyond those of “jihadi brides”. They were active in recruiting other women, disseminating propaganda and fundraising for the caliphate. In Canada, a female recruiter based in Edmonton who offered an online Qur’an course reportedly radicalised at least one young woman, and facilitated travel for her to Syria. In Ceuta, Spain, two friends led a ring that recruited other women for Isis in Iraq and Syria before travelling themselves.

The report cited push-and-pull factors for women who travel to Isis, including feelings of discrimination, persecution or those of not belonging to their society, as well as ideological motivations and efforts by Isis to portray women’s empowerment. This narrative has played itself out in many countries around the world, including the UK, where in 2015 four schoolgirls from Bethnal Green travelled to Syria to marry Isis fighters. The loss of the Bethnal Green girls was a severe blow to the Muslim community in east London and a powerful indication of how strong the lure of Isis could be.

After the fall of the caliphate in 2017, the status of many women remains unknown. While Isis originally restricted roles for women in combat operations, since 2015 there have been increasing indications that their position is changing.

In February this year, for example, Isis produced and released a video of a woman appearing in combat on the battlefield for the first time alongside male soldiers – reflecting a trend largely unique to the terrorist group.

Europol has noted that 96 women were arrested for terrorism-related charges in 2014, 171 in 2015 and 180 in 2016 (though this fell to 123 in 2017).

The report also found that at least 730 infants have been born inside the Isis caliphate to international parents. It drew on figures reported between April 2013 and June 2018 in line with the formal announcement of Isis by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, official government sources and figures, and academic or institutional publications and media reports deemed credible.

The researchers have encouraged governments to work with local regional authorities to identify the location and status of their citizens and ensure they are dealt with in accordance with international law.

They said minors in particular required nuanced consideration, including clear rehabilitative, rather than punitive, policies for those returning.

“Although the number of attacks independently perpetrated by inspired minors remains low, foreign minors possess the ideological commitment and practical skills to pose a potential threat upon return to their home countries,” said Vale.

“Robust and tailored efforts are needed to effectively disengage, de-radicalise and rehabilitate minors who have been born and/or raised in IS. Without such holistic responses, the stigma of the ‘IS-affiliate’ label may become a source of future isolation, disenfranchisement, and possibly radicalisation of the next generation/incarnation of IS.”

Shiraz Maher, the director of the ICSR, added: “These findings are significant as considerations of foreign IS-affiliates in Syria and Iraq have largely focused on the status and activities of its male members.

“Women and minors are poised to play a significant role in carrying on the ideology and organisation of IS now that the caliphate has fallen, so it is essential that governments recognise these affiliates as two distinct groups who need their own unique responses.”
"The Current State of ISIS"

https://www.defense.gov/News/Article/Article/1581212/coalition-strikes-continue-against-isis-targets-in-syria-iraq/

^DoD reports "24 strikes, consisting of 40 engagements in Iraq and Syria" between July 16-22.

 
Who's the expert?  Is there an exact quote to reference? 
You can start at this year's SOTU and move forward with literally dozens of youtube videos if you choose.

I happen to agree with you that it will never be "defeated".  This has been a failed assumption by all the administrations of my life time

 
Could be Latakia? Pretty much Assad/Putin City

ETA: But that would be a bit of a plot twist.
It's funny, you were not too, too far off the mark here. Supposedly from what I've read Baghdadi was on his way to Turkey with his kids, and it sounds like he had been in that area for some time. Not as long as 18 months ago, but maybe 5 months or so or less.

 
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Henry Ford said:
al-Muhajir is way more important than #2. He’s the guy who would have announced who #1 would be and everyone would believe him. 
 

Potential for devolvement into infighting over a successor now, which is tremendous work. 
Wait.  You mean that by killing the leader of a terrorist group the rest of them didn't just decide quit?

 
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2019/11/04/commentary/world-commentary/killing-al-baghdadi-illegal-disgusting-degenerate/

The killing of al-Baghdadi: Illegal, disgusting and degenerate

As a society degenerates, life cheapens. The rhetoric that follows death coarsens. Respect paid to fallen rivals is replaced by triumphalism.

Historians observed this trend in ancient Rome. As republic turned to empire and domain expanded and so also arrogance and hubris, vanquished chieftains who previously might have been allowed to keep their thrones as the head of a vassal state were gruesomely executed at public triumphs. Early Christians got tossed to the lions. Gladiatorial combat became all the rage.

The assassination of Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi by U.S. special forces operating under orders from President Donald Trump reminds us that ours is a nation in moral decline — bloodthirsty and crass, functioning more like a vengeful crime family sending a message to its rivals than a nation of laws, a hell pit so devoid of basic ethics that it doesn’t even occur to its ruling party’s adversaries to raise the question of legality.

Nor does it cross the minds of journalists to mention the United States’ responsibility for the rise of IS. Rather than defend the secular socialist government of Syrian President Bashar Assad or staying out of it, the Obama administration armed and funded the Free Syria Army, parts of which allied with IS. This began the civil war. By most accounts al-Baghdadi was radicalized by his time in a hellish prison in U.S.-occupied Iraq — that’s on President George W. Bush.

Inserting the caveat that IS committed many terrible crimes under al-Baghdadi ought not to be necessary here. Alas, such is the depth of our depravity that to omit such a mention is to risk being accused of approving of IS, its religious extremism, its kidnapping, enslavement, torturing and beheading because one suggests, as I do here, that a culture that had not lost its moral moorings would not tolerate what Trump did, what the media fails to question and what even those on what passes for the “left” not only tolerate but cheer.

So here: IS sucks. Moving on:

“Thank you and congratulations to our special operations forces and others involved in tracking and getting rid of ISIS/Daesh leader Baghdadi,” tweeted Tulsi Gabbard.

Getting rid of.

Gabbard is, by far, the least militaristic candidate for president.

“In tone and substance,” Vox noted, “the announcements of the deaths of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and Osama bin Laden couldn’t have been more different.” In 2011, President Barack Obama used “nearly clinical tones” in his taped statement; Trump made fun of the dead jihadi, dubiously claiming that he left this world “whimpering and crying and screaming all the way” before detonating a suicide vest. He “died like a dog, died like a coward,” Trump told a news conference. Perhaps Caesar had something similarly classy to say about Vercingetorix.

If IS had been defeated as the president previously stated, the death of al-Baghdadi wasn’t a military victory. Worse than the BS was the undiluted repulsiveness of the president’s statement. Trump’s degeneracy did not spring out of thin air; rather, it was the culmination of his predecessors’ increasingly shameless contempt for the human lives we have given them the power to snuff out, and their discovery that holding up a severed head as a trophy can get you votes.

Obama played it cool. He put his surrogates in charge of his death-gloating. “If you are looking for a bumper sticker to sum up how President Obama has handled what we inherited, it’s pretty simple: Osama bin Laden is dead and General Motors is alive,” Vice President Joe Biden bragged as he stumped for Obama in 2012. No one in the media questioned the White House about the lack of legal justification for the operation.

“We came, we saw, he died,” Secretary of State Hillary Clinton cackled in 2011 after she watched on TV as a U.S. drone missile hit Moammar Ghadhafi’s car, driving him into the hands of American-armed radical Islamists who sodomized the Libyan leader with a bayonet. Running for president in 2016, she reminded audiences that she’d been in the Situation Room watching bin Laden being whacked.

“Good riddance,” Bush said after Iraqi President Saddam Hussein was hung and decapitated. Bush invaded Iraq on the pretext that Saddam had weapons of mass destruction. In fact, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell admitted to associates that the evidence he presented in a ballyhooed speech to the United Nations was “bull——.” Saddam never threatened the U.S. Impeaching Bush for conning America into war, Rep. Nancy Pelosi said in 2006, was “off the table.”

We have come a long way since 1981, when President Ronald Reagan, a conservative Republican, signed Executive Order 12333, which states: “No person employed by or acting on behalf of the United States Government shall engage in, or conspire to engage in, assassination.”

E.O. 12333 — which remains in force — was part of the aftermath of the Church Committee hearings of the 1970s, which exposed assassinations and other illegal acts committed by the CIA in Latin America and elsewhere at the height of the Cold War. American spooks conspired to murder political adversaries and heads of state, mainly on the left, all over the world. Back then, the political class had the grace to pretend to be ashamed.

When asked whether they had ordered extrajudicial assassinations, presidents of that era issued what came to be known as the Glomar response: they refused to confirm or deny. They would never have admitted, much less boasted about, murdering people. The media would never have looked the other way. If they had, the American people would not have tolerated either the politicians or the journalists.

 
FBI finds link between Pensacola gunman and Al Qaeda, official says

The FBI has found a link between the gunman in a deadly attack at a military base last December and an Al Qaeda operative, a U.S. official said Monday.

FBI Director Chris Wray and Atty. Gen. William Barr were set to hold a news conference to announce developments in the shooting late last year at the Pensacola Naval Air Station, in which a Saudi Air Force officer killed three U.S. sailors and injured eight other people.

The FBI declined to comment ahead of the news conference.

The contacts between the shooter, Mohammed Alshamrani, and the Al Qaeda operative were discovered on the shooter’s phone, according to the official, who was not authorized to discuss the case by name and spoke on the condition of anonymity.

Alshamrani, who was killed by a sheriff’s deputy during the rampage at a classroom building, was undergoing flight training at Pensacola, where members of foreign militaries routinely receive instruction.

The Justice Department had previously asked Apple to help extract data from two iPhones that belonged to the gunman, including one that authorities say Alshamrani damaged with a bullet after being confronted by law enforcement. It was not immediately clear how the FBI and Justice Department were able to ultimately access the phone.

Law enforcement officials left no doubt that Alshamrani was motivated by jihadist ideology, saying he visited a New York City memorial to the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend and posted anti-American and anti-Israeli messages on social media just two hours before the shooting.

Separately, Al Qaeda’s branch in Yemen, released a video claiming the attack. The branch, Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, or AQAP, has long been considered the global network’s most dangerous branch and has attempted to carry out attacks on the U.S. mainland.

In January, U.S. officials announced that they were sending home 21 Saudi military students after an investigation revealed that they had had jihadist or anti-American sentiments on social media pages or had “contact with child pornography.”

Barr said at the time that Saudi Arabia had agreed to review the conduct of all 21 to see if they should face military discipline and to send back anyone the U.S. later determines should face charges.

 
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