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When is a 6th seed not a 6th seed? (1 Viewer)

Stillers Jr.

Footballguy
Thanks to the hijinx of Tammy Maddox, the Steelers were 11-5 instead of 13-3. They were slotted as the 6th seed in the AFC. At the time I was pissed b/c I wanted to be home for the playoffs, for at east the 1st round.

But then I thought, What has that gotten the Steelers and Cowher in the past? the obvous answer is very little...except for a lot of fuel for the throng of Steeler haters out there...you know who you are.

The Steelers beat the #3 seed...on the road, under a shroud of controversy. Which I think let the Colts go into todays game expecting to win or thinking they would just have to show up and the Steelers would lay down. The unfortunate thing for the Colts is...the Steelers aren't you're typical 6th seed. This is a legit 13-3 team, that BTW was 15-1 last year.

The Steelers beat the #1 seed ON THE ROAD and are heading to Denver. I am sure there is much celebrating b/c a 6th seedis coming to your house for the AFC Championship game...but as I learned, be careful what you wish for Bronco fans. Home field, aint "all that".

I believe this game will be epic. I believe this game will be hard fought on both sides of the ball. More importantly I believe this game will be won by the Pittsburgh Steelers.

 
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diesel7982

Footballguy
The worst thing about it has to be traveling cross country to go play in the Mile High atmosphere after traveling the last 2 weeks.

 

Finatic

Footballguy
Well most Denver fans got what they wanted...A home date with the Steelers for the rights to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.....I have said this many times...I'm still not convinced that's a good thing if I'm a Bronco's fan right now.....Good Luck to both teams and their fans next weekend........

 

Jimmy James

Footballguy
Good luck to the Steelers. They're the team I hope wins the Super Bowl (so much for a certain admin who thinks I am trying to tear them down).I'll say this, though -- travelling to Mile High is like playing your opponents while playing against the setting at the same time. It's the most awesome home field advantage in the game if you ask me, and it is the perfect test for this Steelers team.I don't like the Broncos and would probably vomit if they won a 3rd Super Bowl. Go Steelers.

 

thesurfshop19

Footballguy
Good luck to the Steelers.I don't want to speak for all Broncos fans, but I think home vs. the Steelers is better than road vs. the Colts simply because of the home field advantage. Both teams pose a really tough matchup for Denver, no question, so wanting the home game is no slight to Pittsburgh.Hope it's a great game!

 

Stillers Jr.

Footballguy
I like Bronco fans, I hope for a pleasant week of good football talk.Although I must admit I am still ticked off about the 1997 AFC Championship game....which I was at.

 

Me & My Uncle

Footballguy
travelling to Mile High is like playing your opponents while playing against the setting at the same time. It's the most awesome home field advantage in the game
That's exactly right. Not only do they have the best home field record historically, but there is a clear logic to it. No worse place to play, especially in the playoffs.I just hope Big Ben's arm is OK...not to mention the Bus's mind.

 

gman8343

What would Lemmy do?
Pumped for this game. Don't care who wins as long as it's a great game. Although, Jake Plummer as the Super Bowl MVP makes me giddy inside.

 

SSOG

Moderator
I remember I pulled out that "when was a 6th seed not a 6th seed" arguement two years ago, pointing out that Plummer was 9-3 and his backups were 1-3, so Denver was better than its record. And then Indy came in and disabused me of that notion.I learned since then that you're better off focusing on what your team IS and not what your team ISN'T. Your team IS a sixth seed. It IS playing its third straight road game. It IS playing a team that will have two more days to prepare (they played a day earlier, and don't have to travel), and it IS playing a team that is undefeated at home. But it also IS the same team that has beaten the #4 seed and the #1 seed on the road, and it IS the sort of team that matches up well, and it IS possibly the hottest team in the league right now. And that would be true whether it was a 4 seed or a 6 seed or a 1 seed.I wish your team luck next weekend... but not TOO much luck, because your team IS going to play my team tough, regardless. I said all along that I'd rather be playing New England than Pittsburgh, and I meant it all along.

 

Stillers Jr.

Footballguy
SSOG - I agree this will be a great game...But admit, there is a possibility Jake Plummer Sh*ts the bed and throws 3 picks or something...

 

MustBeNewHere

Footballguy
Now way the Stillers beat the Broncos. I'd be willing to bet both my estates in the Hamptons and all my poker winnings from the past 42 years.

 

Stillers Jr.

Footballguy
Now way the Stillers beat the Broncos. I'd be willing to bet both my estates in the Hamptons and all my poker winnings from the past 42 years.
Seriously, Go away. Please. You are at the point where the sight of your user name disgusts me with your immature posts.

 

SSOG

Moderator
SSOG - I agree this will be a great game...

But admit, there is a possibility Jake Plummer Sh*ts the bed and throws 3 picks or something...
Of course there's a possibility. Carson Palmer, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady... they all have 3+ INT days, too. There's a difference, though, between POSSIBILITY, and PROBABILITY.Plummer has thrown 8 INTs all season now. That's in 482 attempts, good for one every 60.25 passes. Roethlisberger has thrown 10 INTs in 411 attempts, good for one every 41.1 passes.

Meanwhile, on the take, Denver's defense has intercepted 22 passes to Pittsburgh's 17, so it's not exactly like Pittsburgh's defense is more likely to force Plummer into mistakes than Denver's is to force Roethlisberger. Finally, there's the fact that Plummer hasn't thrown a pick against the blitz all season (although he HAS thrown 11 of his 18 TD passes), and Pitt blitzes almost 20 times a game (tops in the league).

Is it possibile that Plummer puts up a 3-INT performance? Absolutely. Is it PROBABLE? Not at all. It's far more probably that Roethlisberger will, actually.

 

Ghost Rider

Footballguy
I don't want to speak for all Broncos fans, but I think home vs. the Steelers is better than road vs. the Colts simply because of the home field advantage. Both teams pose a really tough matchup for Denver, no question, so wanting the home game is no slight to Pittsburgh.
I couldn't have said it better myself.
Facing Jake Plummer makes me GIDDY inside...
That is what Patriots fans said all last week and they saw their team lose to Plummer and the Broncos last night. :)
 

Bloom

Moderator
SSOG - I agree this will be a great game...

But admit, there is a possibility Jake Plummer Sh*ts the bed and throws 3 picks or something...
Of course there's a possibility. Carson Palmer, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady... they all have 3+ INT days, too. There's a difference, though, between POSSIBILITY, and PROBABILITY.Plummer has thrown 8 INTs all season now. That's in 482 attempts, good for one every 60.25 passes. Roethlisberger has thrown 10 INTs in 411 attempts, good for one every 41.1 passes.

Meanwhile, on the take, Denver's defense has intercepted 22 passes to Pittsburgh's 17, so it's not exactly like Pittsburgh's defense is more likely to force Plummer into mistakes than Denver's is to force Roethlisberger. Finally, there's the fact that Plummer hasn't thrown a pick against the blitz all season (although he HAS thrown 11 of his 18 TD passes), and Pitt blitzes almost 20 times a game (tops in the league).

Is it possibile that Plummer puts up a 3-INT performance? Absolutely. Is it PROBABLE? Not at all. It's far more probably that Roethlisberger will, actually.
Ben's TD-INT ratio all time postseason is 8-6. Plummer's is 6-8, and if you toss out garbage time TDs in the INDY loss last year, Plummer has at least as many INTs as TDs in every game of his playoff career. Ben had troubles last year, but he has been the best QB in the playoffs so far this year. Not sure where you are getting this.
 

SSOG

Moderator
Ben's TD-INT ratio all time postseason is 8-6. Plummer's is 6-8, and if you toss out garbage time TDs in the INDY loss last year, Plummer has at least as many INTs as TDs in every game of his playoff career. Ben had troubles last year, but he has been the best QB in the playoffs so far this year. Not sure where you are getting this.
Come on... Ben has faced Cincy and Indy, the two worst playoff defenses in the entire AFC (and possibly the entire NFL). Of COURSE he's looked like the best QB in the playoffs this season.Anyway, Plummer's stats from previous seasons aren't particularly telling. He's been playing from 28 points down for most of his playoff career. If you think that Pitt is going to stake a 28 point lead early, then by all means, predict that Plummer's going to throw a ton of INTs. If not, if you think that the Pitt/Den game will look a lot like the Pitt/NE game- a hard-fought, defensive battle- then I think you have to expect Plummer to play more or less like he played against New England- which was good enough for a Denver victory, when you get down to it.

 

Elway Lives

Footballguy
If there is any QB out there that the "he has X interceptions all time in his playoff career" argument is weak for, it is Jake Plummer 2005. He was Mr. Interception for years, but that guy has not shown up THIS season. And I'd hardly call it luck over a 17 game stretch. Jake has been remarkably (if not uncharacteristically) consistent this year, and regardless of what his playoff history has shown, this is a new year, and there is just as much reason (arguably more so) to believe his current poise will continue through the next two games as there is to believe the old Jake will come back.Here's hoping Jake 2005 holds on for a few more weeks. :banned:

 

diesel7982

Footballguy
SSOG - I agree this will be a great game...

But admit, there is a possibility Jake Plummer Sh*ts the bed and throws 3 picks or something...
Of course there's a possibility. Carson Palmer, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady... they all have 3+ INT days, too. There's a difference, though, between POSSIBILITY, and PROBABILITY.Plummer has thrown 8 INTs all season now. That's in 482 attempts, good for one every 60.25 passes. Roethlisberger has thrown 10 INTs in 411 attempts, good for one every 41.1 passes.

Meanwhile, on the take, Denver's defense has intercepted 22 passes to Pittsburgh's 17, so it's not exactly like Pittsburgh's defense is more likely to force Plummer into mistakes than Denver's is to force Roethlisberger. Finally, there's the fact that Plummer hasn't thrown a pick against the blitz all season (although he HAS thrown 11 of his 18 TD passes), and Pitt blitzes almost 20 times a game (tops in the league).

Is it possibile that Plummer puts up a 3-INT performance? Absolutely. Is it PROBABLE? Not at all. It's far more probably that Roethlisberger will, actually.
Ben's TD-INT ratio all time postseason is 8-6. Plummer's is 6-8, and if you toss out garbage time TDs in the INDY loss last year, Plummer has at least as many INTs as TDs in every game of his playoff career. Ben had troubles last year, but he has been the best QB in the playoffs so far this year. Not sure where you are getting this.
Did you not read his post?What Big Ben did in the playoffs last year has nothing to do with what he'll do this year, same for Plummer.

How each has played this season is far more relevant.

 

Marc Levin

Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
The worst thing about it has to be traveling cross country to go play in the Mile High atmosphere after traveling the last 2 weeks.
:yes: biggest problem for them is the three weeks on the road factor.

2nd biggest problem for both teams is that they are putting top-5 run offenses up against top-5 run defenses. Should be a lot of interesting battles in the trenches.

 

Cookiemonster

Footballguy
I don't want to speak for all Broncos fans, but I think home vs. the Steelers is better than road vs. the Colts simply because of the home field advantage.  Both teams pose a really tough matchup for Denver, no question, so wanting the home game is no slight to Pittsburgh.
I couldn't have said it better myself.
Facing Jake Plummer makes me GIDDY inside...
That is what Patriots fans said all last week and they saw their team lose to Plummer and the Broncos last night. :)
I wouldn't expect the Steelers to grant you... like, 16 special teams turnovers though.
 

SSOG

Moderator
The worst thing about it has to be traveling cross country to go play in the Mile High atmosphere after traveling the last 2 weeks.
:yes: biggest problem for them is the three weeks on the road factor.

2nd biggest problem for both teams is that they are putting top-5 run offenses up against top-5 run defenses. Should be a lot of interesting battles in the trenches.
As a Denver fan, I'm going to come out and say it. Our run defense is tremendously overrated, and is not a top-5 unit. Denver's played with a lead more than any team other than Indy this season, and as a result has faced a ton of pass attempts, and not that many rushing attempts. In fact, Denver has faced THIRTY-NINE fewer rushing attempts than any other team in the NFL. In terms of yards-per-attempt, Denver ranks 16th- right in the middle of the pack, which is about where I feel they belong.That said, for the very same reason, Denver's passing defense is tremendously UNDERrated. It has faced THIRTY-THREE more pass attempts than any other team in the NFL, but allows the third-lowest completion% and has one of the league's lowest yards-per-attempt allowed. I suspect that Pitt will have a lot more success RUNNING the ball than they will PASSING it.

 

SSOG

Moderator
No team that has had to win in week 17 to make the playoffs has ever won the Super Bowl.

</sillystatoftheday>
Ah, but no #6 seed has EVER lost in the conference championship round.</sillymisleadingstatoftheday>

 
The worst thing about it has to be traveling cross country to go play in the Mile High atmosphere after traveling the last 2 weeks.
:yes: biggest problem for them is the three weeks on the road factor.

2nd biggest problem for both teams is that they are putting top-5 run offenses up against top-5 run defenses. Should be a lot of interesting battles in the trenches.
As a Denver fan, I'm going to come out and say it. Our run defense is tremendously overrated, and is not a top-5 unit. Denver's played with a lead more than any team other than Indy this season, and as a result has faced a ton of pass attempts, and not that many rushing attempts. In fact, Denver has faced THIRTY-NINE fewer rushing attempts than any other team in the NFL. In terms of yards-per-attempt, Denver ranks 16th- right in the middle of the pack, which is about where I feel they belong.That said, for the very same reason, Denver's passing defense is tremendously UNDERrated. It has faced THIRTY-THREE more pass attempts than any other team in the NFL, but allows the third-lowest completion% and has one of the league's lowest yards-per-attempt allowed. I suspect that Pitt will have a lot more success RUNNING the ball than they will PASSING it.
I just happened to have all this info readily available in my excel spreadsheet for efficiency ratings.Denver has far and away the biggest disparity in pass attempts defended and rush attempts defended in the regular season to the tune of 269! That's 88 more than the #2 finisher San Diego has with 181.

Broken down into pass defense and rush defense efficiency I have them at #3 and #24 respectively.

Pittsburgh is in a similar boat, being the #6 team in pass v rush attempts disparity. They are rated #8 and #9 respectively in defensive efficiency.

Of course, you have to factor in that a team should be slightly worse against the run with a lead as they are trying to stop the pass more, but Pittsburgh has no problem stopping the run when trying to protect the lead.

It would appear that Pittsburgh can win playing their standard game, but Denver will have a tougher time trying to play their style of offense. Will be interesting to say the least. I will not be at all surprised if Pitt makes the SB.

 
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Stillers Jr.

Footballguy
SSOG - I agree this will be a great game...

But admit, there is a possibility Jake Plummer Sh*ts the bed and throws 3 picks or something...
OK last blast from the past...Sorry Bronco fans, I have been in your position more than I care to count...

 

jurb26

Footballguy
The worst thing about it has to be traveling cross country to go play in the Mile High atmosphere after traveling the last 2 weeks.
:yes: biggest problem for them is the three weeks on the road factor.

2nd biggest problem for both teams is that they are putting top-5 run offenses up against top-5 run defenses. Should be a lot of interesting battles in the trenches.
As a Denver fan, I'm going to come out and say it. Our run defense is tremendously overrated, and is not a top-5 unit. Denver's played with a lead more than any team other than Indy this season, and as a result has faced a ton of pass attempts, and not that many rushing attempts. In fact, Denver has faced THIRTY-NINE fewer rushing attempts than any other team in the NFL. In terms of yards-per-attempt, Denver ranks 16th- right in the middle of the pack, which is about where I feel they belong.That said, for the very same reason, Denver's passing defense is tremendously UNDERrated. It has faced THIRTY-THREE more pass attempts than any other team in the NFL, but allows the third-lowest completion% and has one of the league's lowest yards-per-attempt allowed. I suspect that Pitt will have a lot more success RUNNING the ball than they will PASSING it.
The run D didn't look overrated today, but the pass D sure did. Big Ben is as hot as any QB I've seen right now though, so who knows.
 

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