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When is it time to bail... (1 Viewer)

He'll turn 29 at the start of the season. That's just 1 year away from the big THREE-OH!

Is this the year he gets REALLY hurt? Most backs who have played a long time get that BIG injury. Haw BW had that yet?

Is it time to trade him or ride him for another year?

ETA: This is a dynasty question.

 
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Brian Westbrook is studly. Maybe i'm bias because im an Eagles fan, but i intend to ride it out with Westbrook, however long it will be.

 
He'll turn 29 at the start of the season. That's just 1 year away from the big THREE-OH!Is this the year he gets REALLY hurt? Most backs who have played a long time get that BIG injury. Haw BW had that yet?Is it time to trade him or ride him for another year?ETA: This is a dynasty question.
Tomlinson's already 29...better cut bait on him too. :thumbdown: Westy already had a Lisfranc injury, and Lord knows he's perpetually Questionable, but if you can live with that Q next to his name there's been ZERO indication to this point that he's on (or even near) the downslope. He's a stud, and in PPR he's an uber-stud.
 
I'm probably in the minority, but I think now is the time to trade while his value is sky-high, especially in PPR. While he may repeat last year, I think his value drops dramatically next year when he turns 30. He's worth a lot to someone really wants to win now since he's probably the #2 RB in PPR leagues right now.

 
He'll turn 29 at the start of the season. That's just 1 year away from the big THREE-OH!Is this the year he gets REALLY hurt? Most backs who have played a long time get that BIG injury. Haw BW had that yet?Is it time to trade him or ride him for another year?ETA: This is a dynasty question.
Tomlinson's already 29...better cut bait on him too. :thumbdown: Westy already had a Lisfranc injury, and Lord knows he's perpetually Questionable, but if you can live with that Q next to his name there's been ZERO indication to this point that he's on (or even near) the downslope. He's a stud, and in PPR he's an uber-stud.
The difference is LT is a stud year in and year out. Westbrook is a yardage machine and his receptions went up last year, but he's never had more than 12 total TD's.
 
He'll turn 29 at the start of the season. That's just 1 year away from the big THREE-OH!Is this the year he gets REALLY hurt? Most backs who have played a long time get that BIG injury. Haw BW had that yet?Is it time to trade him or ride him for another year?ETA: This is a dynasty question.
Tomlinson's already 29...better cut bait on him too. :rolleyes: Westy already had a Lisfranc injury, and Lord knows he's perpetually Questionable, but if you can live with that Q next to his name there's been ZERO indication to this point that he's on (or even near) the downslope. He's a stud, and in PPR he's an uber-stud.
The difference is LT is a stud year in and year out. Westbrook is a yardage machine and his receptions went up last year, but he's never had more than 12 total TD's.
You mean the "Year-In Year-Out" Stud who's pulled up lame the last three years? Tomlinson's making a habit of not being there when fantasy teams most need him (the playoffs). Not knocking the guy mind you (what does he care) but it's worth mentioning.
 
I am also in the camp of trade him now. His value is not going to get any higher. I also think the Eagles pare his touches this year.

 
I would trade him in a dynasty league if I didn't think I could contend this year. For example, one of my dynasty teams is more or less in rebuilding mode, so I sent Westy, Buckhalter & Alex Smith for Jonathon Stewart, DWill, David Garrard & Santonio Holmes. I'm a Stewart fan and needed WR & QB help badly.

Interestingly, I kept Lorenzo Booker, who in ppr leagues I think has a decent shot at being a solid fantasy producer. I like what the kid did last year at the end of the season in Miami (averaged over 5 catches a game in those he played) and he's in an offensive system that fits his style very well...

 
i also am one of the one's staying away from him. i think he is do to have a bad year and may lose some carries finally to some of backs on the team. i guess i would rather take my chances with a up and coming guy like barber i just hope barber gets more touches than he did last year, but he has been getting more each year. i could see westbrook getting something like 1300-1500 yards but maybe 6- 9 tds and i think there are better options out there.

 
I think Westbrook could be another Tiki Barber, we may not have seen his best year yet and he may play at a high level for another 3 years.

ETA: Then again if the Eagles dump McNabb all bets are off.

 
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I am also in the camp of trade him now. His value is not going to get any higher. I also think the Eagles pare his touches this year.
Same here. In a non-ppr dynasty league, here is what I got for him:Colston, Marques NOS WR

Year 2008 Round 1 Draft Pick (1.09)

Year 2008 Round 3 Draft Pick (3.09)

Year 2009 Round 1 Draft Pick

for

Westbrook, Brian PHI RB

Year 2008 Round 3 Draft Pick (3.01)

Year 2008 Round 4 Draft Pick (4.01)

I had top-level depth at RB and the 1.01 and 1.08 picks so I felt I was able to do this.

 
I think it depends on your team and the value you can get for him. As someone has already said, he is worth more to a team trying to win now. As a current Westy owner with a legit shot in 2008, I will likely keep him. That's not to say I wouldn't take a slight downgrade this year if I could get a younger stud, but I refuse to trade him for the likes of Darren McFadden. I did try to trade him already for Steven Jackson, and I offered a bump in this year's draft (we keep 8 players, and I offered a swap of my 1st rounder for his 2nd rounder to even up the deal). The SJax owner turned me down. I play PPR, so I foresee Westy on my squad until the wheels fall off, however long that will be. FWIW, here are the other RB's and how I see it:

Guys you'd have to take a HUGE bump down for:

Adrian Peterson - Peterson would be the backbone of the other team. The value of Peterson is sky high in dynasty, so I can't see an owner getting rid of him.

SJax - The 4-yr age difference coupled with a close ADP would make this a hard deal too. I don't see an owner of SJax budging on this one.

Joseph Addai - Again, a 4-yr age difference. Indy hasn't overused Addai to this point. He may be a top RB for many years, but will Indy ever let him become a 350+ touch guy? It's pretty strange, especially when you consider their success with Edge for 7 seasons, and he averaged 26.5 touches per game during his time there (that's an overall avg of 424 touches per year). FWIW, no FBG expert has Addai projected for more than 340 total touches.

Guys you'd have to take a MEDIUM bump down for:

LaDainian Tomlinson - Same age as Westy, and with more than twice the career touches (2823 to 1361). LT's conditioning makes me think he will continue to be a top RB for at least 2 more years. The LT owner certainly wouldn't want to get younger by only 2 months, so I doubt the LT owner would bite.

Guys you'd have to take a LOW bump down for:

Marion Barber - I want to see him perform at the top level when given a full load before I buy into him. If he does perform, next year is too late to unload Westy. A catch-22 right there, but not one I want any part of.

Reggie Bush - As a pass-catcher, yes, he can compete with Westbrook. But Reggie's 3.7 yards per carry average shows he is not in the same class as a RB. How can Reggie's YPC be so low on such a potent offense when defenses have to gameplan for so much more? Ironic that Reggie has the same 3.7YPC average as his college teammate, LenDale White. I just don't see Reggie as a top RB in the future, unless you play in a league that awards 2pts per catch.

Guys you'd get a LOW bump up for:

Frank Gore - Here's another 4-yr age difference. For all of his perceived injury-proneness, Gore hasn't missed much time in the NFL. I think the 49ers are on the rise, and Martz will find ways to keep Gore involved. I think he is the most likely candidate for a trade, and the one I'd set my sights on. Only 1 of the 5 FBG experts have Gore rated higher in dynasty (kinda shocking to me).

Maurice Jones-Drew - MJD had 212 touches in 2006, then 207 touches in 2007. Fred Taylor had 254 touches in 2006, then 232 touches in 2007. MJD finished 10 spots higher in FF in 2006, and then 5 spots higher in 2007. MJD has proven to be a great FF RB even in a RBBC. To me, it doesn't matter if Fred Taylor can have one more decent season, because MJD will get his stats. But at 32 years old, the odds of Fred having another injury-free season are pretty low.

Marshawn Lynch - Lynch is a workhorse and should be for many years, albeit on a mediocre (at best) offense. If you target him, do it now, before his legal issues pan out. Small risk there, but his value will only go up from here on out IMO. At this point he falls into my "LOW bump up" category, but he will increase to "straight up trade" if he doesn't get suspended.

Clinton Portis - I wouldn't part with Westy for a RB only 2 years younger, and with nearly 2 seasons of work more than him (CP has 1915 touches; BW has 1361). At this rate, their prospective wheels should fall off around the same time. I will take the guy with better projected stats for 2008, and to me, that's Westy.

Larry Johnson - Same age as Westy, and roughly the same wear, although LJ's wear was basically packed into 2 seasons (last half of 2005 thru first half of 2007). Westy is the bigger injury risk IMO, but LJ's baggage is pretty heavy too. Again, I'll go with projected stats for 2008 and stick with BW.

Willis McGahee - 2 years younger, but within 100 touches of Westy for his career. I see him as a medium injury risk, but I just don't see him with very much more long-term value than BW.

Guys you'd get a MEDIUM bump up for:

Ronnie Brown - Nope, not buying. Too many IF's with Brown and the rest of the Dolphins offense.

Ryan Grant - Last year's Rocky Balboa. I'd consider him if he were a few years younger, but I will shy away from a 25-yr old with half a season under his belt. Maybe he blossoms late, ala Tiki Barber, but I just can't bring myself to taking that chance.

Darren McFadden/Jonathan Stewart/Rashard Mendenhall - If God himself were a rookie, I still wouldn't trade Westy for him.

 
I am also in the camp of trade him now. His value is not going to get any higher. I also think the Eagles pare his touches this year.
Same here. In a non-ppr dynasty league, here is what I got for him:Colston, Marques NOS WR

Year 2008 Round 1 Draft Pick (1.09)

Year 2008 Round 3 Draft Pick (3.09)

Year 2009 Round 1 Draft Pick

for

Westbrook, Brian PHI RB

Year 2008 Round 3 Draft Pick (3.01)

Year 2008 Round 4 Draft Pick (4.01)

I had top-level depth at RB and the 1.01 and 1.08 picks so I felt I was able to do this.
Wow, that looks like a great deal for you, especially since you say you've already got the RB depth. :popcorn:
 
He'll turn 29 at the start of the season. That's just 1 year away from the big THREE-OH!

Is this the year he gets REALLY hurt? Most backs who have played a long time get that BIG injury. Haw BW had that yet?

Is it time to trade him or ride him for another year?

ETA: This is a dynasty question.
Tomlinson's already 29...better cut bait on him too. :popcorn: Westy already had a Lisfranc injury, and Lord knows he's perpetually Questionable, but if you can live with that Q next to his name there's been ZERO indication to this point that he's on (or even near) the downslope. He's a stud, and in PPR he's an uber-stud.
The difference is LT is a stud year in and year out. Westbrook is a yardage machine and his receptions went up last year, but he's never had more than 12 total TD's.
You mean the "Year-In Year-Out" Stud who's pulled up lame the last three years? Tomlinson's making a habit of not being there when fantasy teams most need him (the playoffs). Not knocking the guy mind you (what does he care) but it's worth mentioning.
Is this the same Tomlinson that "Year-In Year-Out" has helped team upon team GET to the playoffs and many onto the Championship game?
 
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He'll turn 29 at the start of the season. That's just 1 year away from the big THREE-OH!

Is this the year he gets REALLY hurt? Most backs who have played a long time get that BIG injury. Haw BW had that yet?

Is it time to trade him or ride him for another year?

ETA: This is a dynasty question.
Tomlinson's already 29...better cut bait on him too. :rolleyes: Westy already had a Lisfranc injury, and Lord knows he's perpetually Questionable, but if you can live with that Q next to his name there's been ZERO indication to this point that he's on (or even near) the downslope. He's a stud, and in PPR he's an uber-stud.
The difference is LT is a stud year in and year out. Westbrook is a yardage machine and his receptions went up last year, but he's never had more than 12 total TD's.
You mean the "Year-In Year-Out" Stud who's pulled up lame the last three years? Tomlinson's making a habit of not being there when fantasy teams most need him (the playoffs). Not knocking the guy mind you (what does he care) but it's worth mentioning.
Most career fantasy points in weeks 14--17 (among players debuting in 95 or later)
 
He'll turn 29 at the start of the season. That's just 1 year away from the big THREE-OH!Is this the year he gets REALLY hurt? Most backs who have played a long time get that BIG injury. Haw BW had that yet?Is it time to trade him or ride him for another year?ETA: This is a dynasty question.
Tomlinson's already 29...better cut bait on him too. :rolleyes: Westy already had a Lisfranc injury, and Lord knows he's perpetually Questionable, but if you can live with that Q next to his name there's been ZERO indication to this point that he's on (or even near) the downslope. He's a stud, and in PPR he's an uber-stud.
The difference is LT is a stud year in and year out. Westbrook is a yardage machine and his receptions went up last year, but he's never had more than 12 total TD's.
You mean the "Year-In Year-Out" Stud who's pulled up lame the last three years? Tomlinson's making a habit of not being there when fantasy teams most need him (the playoffs).
Yeah, he KILLED me during my playoffs last season.Week 14: 173 total yards, 2 TDsWeek 15: 123 total yards, 2 TDsWeek 16: 114 total yards, 1 TDWhat a bum.
 
He'll turn 29 at the start of the season. That's just 1 year away from the big THREE-OH!

Is this the year he gets REALLY hurt? Most backs who have played a long time get that BIG injury. Haw BW had that yet?

Is it time to trade him or ride him for another year?

ETA: This is a dynasty question.
Tomlinson's already 29...better cut bait on him too. :rolleyes: Westy already had a Lisfranc injury, and Lord knows he's perpetually Questionable, but if you can live with that Q next to his name there's been ZERO indication to this point that he's on (or even near) the downslope. He's a stud, and in PPR he's an uber-stud.
The difference is LT is a stud year in and year out. Westbrook is a yardage machine and his receptions went up last year, but he's never had more than 12 total TD's.
You mean the "Year-In Year-Out" Stud who's pulled up lame the last three years? Tomlinson's making a habit of not being there when fantasy teams most need him (the playoffs). Not knocking the guy mind you (what does he care) but it's worth mentioning.
Most career fantasy points in weeks 14--17 (among players debuting in 95 or later)
Interesting :goodposting:
 
Isn't the goal of FF to get the best players each year and field the best team?

I've never really understood why you would get rid of a Top 5 player in any category unless you felt you could get better value for him.

This isn't Shaun Alexander here.

I'd rather run a guy into the ground and get every productive ounce out of him rather than giving up too early and selling him short.

If you can get a comparable talent that could last longer, I would do it (in general) - but if you think that you'll get that - what makes you think that a potential trade partner won't have the same misgivings about taking that player from you?

Run a RB that can be a Top 10 RB for 1-3 years into the ground and find younger talent to develop over that timeline.

 
He'll turn 29 at the start of the season. That's just 1 year away from the big THREE-OH!

Is this the year he gets REALLY hurt? Most backs who have played a long time get that BIG injury. Haw BW had that yet?

Is it time to trade him or ride him for another year?

ETA: This is a dynasty question.
Tomlinson's already 29...better cut bait on him too. :shrug: Westy already had a Lisfranc injury, and Lord knows he's perpetually Questionable, but if you can live with that Q next to his name there's been ZERO indication to this point that he's on (or even near) the downslope. He's a stud, and in PPR he's an uber-stud.
The difference is LT is a stud year in and year out. Westbrook is a yardage machine and his receptions went up last year, but he's never had more than 12 total TD's.
You mean the "Year-In Year-Out" Stud who's pulled up lame the last three years? Tomlinson's making a habit of not being there when fantasy teams most need him (the playoffs). Not knocking the guy mind you (what does he care) but it's worth mentioning.
Most career fantasy points in weeks 14--17 (among players debuting in 95 or later)
Yes, very nice. The top 5 on the list in terms of PPG are:LJ - 23.3

Portis - 22.5

Domanick Davis - 19.7

LT - 19.0

SJax - 18.9

A few common denominators with all of these guys:

- They are/were all workhorses who tended to amass over near 400 touches per season, when healthy.

- Only Portis is/was under 220 pounds, but his running style is like a big back.

- They are all good pass-catching RB's (Portis/LJ don't get the love, but they are).

And look who is chomping at their heels at #6... none other than MJD at 18.1. Yeah, I know he isn't 220 pounds, but if he were, he'd be completely round.

 
The things I would want to consider would be-

1. Yes, Westbrook has been sturdy and capable of playing through dings and injuries thus far, but nearing "30" it may begin to take it's toll any year now.

2. With the Kolb era just around the corner, projections and totals may not come as easy.

3. I think you may also have to ask yourself, "How much longer will Andy Reid be around?" and how it effects the future of the Eagles.

In relation to RB mileage, I found an interesting article from Bill Bender of Sporting News this week that I found interesting:

http://fantasysource.sportingnews.com/nfl/...r/20080625.html

 
Isn't the goal of FF to get the best players each year and field the best team?

I've never really understood why you would get rid of a Top 5 player in any category unless you felt you could get better value for him.

This isn't Shaun Alexander here.

I'd rather run a guy into the ground and get every productive ounce out of him rather than giving up too early and selling him short.

If you can get a comparable talent that could last longer, I would do it (in general) - but if you think that you'll get that - what makes you think that a potential trade partner won't have the same misgivings about taking that player from you?

Run a RB that can be a Top 10 RB for 1-3 years into the ground and find younger talent to develop over that timeline.
:lmao: Only a team well out of contention should even consider trading him. But those thinking about it still need to beware, and not sel him short. The thumbrule of the 30 y.o. RB is just that, a thumbrule....that's becoming less true every year.Personally, I'm going to hold until there are signs of him slipping. (Unless I get that can't resist offer! :excited: )

 
The things I would want to consider would be-

1. Yes, Westbrook has been sturdy and capable of playing through dings and injuries thus far, but nearing "30" it may begin to take it's toll any year now.

2. With the Kolb era just around the corner, projections and totals may not come as easy.

3. I think you may also have to ask yourself, "How much longer will Andy Reid be around?" and how it effects the future of the Eagles.

In relation to RB mileage, I found an interesting article from Bill Bender of Sporting News this week that I found interesting:

http://fantasysource.sportingnews.com/nfl/...r/20080625.html
Your link only took me to a page where I had to register.
 
The things I would want to consider would be-

1. Yes, Westbrook has been sturdy and capable of playing through dings and injuries thus far, but nearing "30" it may begin to take it's toll any year now.

2. With the Kolb era just around the corner, projections and totals may not come as easy.

3. I think you may also have to ask yourself, "How much longer will Andy Reid be around?" and how it effects the future of the Eagles.

In relation to RB mileage, I found an interesting article from Bill Bender of Sporting News this week that I found interesting:

http://fantasysource.sportingnews.com/nfl/...r/20080625.html
Your link only took me to a page where I had to register.
Sorry-I was afraid of that.

I posted it at "Assessing Mileage On Running Backs" here:

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=404296

 
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He'll turn 29 at the start of the season. That's just 1 year away from the big THREE-OH!Is this the year he gets REALLY hurt? Most backs who have played a long time get that BIG injury. Haw BW had that yet?Is it time to trade him or ride him for another year?ETA: This is a dynasty question.
Tomlinson's already 29...better cut bait on him too. :lmao: Westy already had a Lisfranc injury, and Lord knows he's perpetually Questionable, but if you can live with that Q next to his name there's been ZERO indication to this point that he's on (or even near) the downslope. He's a stud, and in PPR he's an uber-stud.
The difference is LT is a stud year in and year out. Westbrook is a yardage machine and his receptions went up last year, but he's never had more than 12 total TD's.
You mean the "Year-In Year-Out" Stud who's pulled up lame the last three years? Tomlinson's making a habit of not being there when fantasy teams most need him (the playoffs). Not knocking the guy mind you (what does he care) but it's worth mentioning.
:rolleyes: Last year Tomlinson had a very solid playoffs scoring 71 points in the 3 playoff games in non ppr, the year before 75 points. in 2005 he didn't play too well, but have some perspective
 
I'm in the ride him into the ground camp.

The end might be as soon as the next few years, but he is the type of back to help deliver a trophy during that time.

 
Isn't the goal of FF to get the best players each year and field the best team?I've never really understood why you would get rid of a Top 5 player in any category unless you felt you could get better value for him. This isn't Shaun Alexander here.I'd rather run a guy into the ground and get every productive ounce out of him rather than giving up too early and selling him short.If you can get a comparable talent that could last longer, I would do it (in general) - but if you think that you'll get that - what makes you think that a potential trade partner won't have the same misgivings about taking that player from you? Run a RB that can be a Top 10 RB for 1-3 years into the ground and find younger talent to develop over that timeline.
No, it's not Alexander or even close to it. There's no reason to think he won't be a top 5 player for the next 3 years so I don't disagree with the idea to running him into the ground to win titles the next few years. What I do see is a top player whose value is as high as it will ever get after last year's fantastic season and who could net you a younger top 10 RB and a lot more if you find the right buyer. In PPR he's tough to trade since he's a guy like LT who can carry you to a title, but he does have some injury risk and you may pay for trying to ride him out.
 
In a non-ppr league I'm finding it hard to sell so I'm going to hold on with the core I have around him.. LT, Maroney, Fitz, Edwards, Colston, Marshall, Cutler. I'll probably just run LT and Westy until they don't run no more and pick up younger backs along the way.

 
I can't imagine he'll do any better than he did last season...I'd trade him on that notion alone..

I think he misses a couple of games this season, due to injury..the guy has never proven to be extremely durable

 

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