When Sharks Swim with Guppies (1 Viewer)

[Third]

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2006/0...e_mcindoe01.php

Very good read for those that share league waters with a few guppies. My first year of subscribing to FBG I found myself in this exact mess. I strutted around after drafting 3 top 20 RBs in the first 3 rounds, only to find the QB and WR cupboard bare.

Guppies seem to latch on to one basic fantasy truth that we sometimes don't take so serious - "the best starting lineup wins!"

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

I agree - this is a good article.

 

[Fishnic]

my league resembles this article perfectly. I draft @11 this year and will go into the draft with no strategy whatsoever. Every year we get at least 2-3 suprise pickes in the first round.

 

[amnesiac]

my league resembles this article perfectly. I draft @11 this year and will go into the draft with no strategy whatsoever. Every year we get at least 2-3 suprise pickes in the first round.

i know it sounds stupid, but when drafting with people who are unpredictable, you really have to let the draft come to you.

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

This is a pretty good snapshot of my work league as well.

I load up on RBs and then sit there and cry at the RBs who are still left in rounds 5-9, yet I can't touch them because I've already got 4

 

[Reaper]

Good Article.... I've been in that spot, sitting on a ton of Great RB's....

A good way to attack this is to Know that as a shark, Your advantage is finding Value Later, and that goes for all positions.. So, Instead of going Stud RB, you can go Stud - Stud - Which means, grab your Antonio Gates and your Randy Moss (top WR) early, heck, maybe even a QB early when you always wait for QB's till the end.. Get your Superstars early and don't worry about losing out at a position like RB, Cuz you know later on You'll be grabbing RB value that the guppies aren't onto. Maybe grab 1 stud RB early then wait on your RB depth - You'll find it.

 

[BigTex]

 

[Acrobat7]

Get your Superstars early and don't worry about losing out at a position like RB, Cuz you know later on You'll be grabbing RB value that the guppies aren't onto. Maybe grab 1 stud RB early then wait on your RB depth - You'll find it.

i kinda draftd like this in a 10-team league. had the #6 pick and went SJax/Manning/Gates in the first 3 rounds.i really like my team, but IMO this strategy works best in small (<12) leagues.

 

[jdoggydogg]

I enjoyed this article. Guppies can be dangerous the same way that rookie poker players can be dangerous.

My one disagreement is the contention that guppies know just as much about football as sharks do. I'd never contend that guppies are dumb. Far from it. But there are a couple of guppies in my league that don't know much about football. They know the star players and they draft accordingly.

 

[Defending Champs]

We do an auction draft that is a mix of both type owners.

Several read this site thoroughly and others bring in their trusty magazine published sometime before summer rolls around.

Eventhough it is an auction style draft, these tendancies hold true. I read the article thinking, that's what happened to me and I could see some of the owners thought processes as I was reading.

Good read and thanks.

 

[CrossEyed]

Good Article.... I've been in that spot, sitting on a ton of Great RB's....A good way to attack this is to Know that as a shark, Your advantage is finding Value Later, and that goes for all positions.. So, Instead of going Stud RB, you can go Stud - Stud - Which means, grab your Antonio Gates and your Randy Moss (top WR) early, heck, maybe even a QB early when you always wait for QB's till the end.. Get your Superstars early and don't worry about losing out at a position like RB, Cuz you know later on You'll be grabbing RB value that the guppies aren't onto. Maybe grab 1 stud RB early then wait on your RB depth - You'll find it.

Agreed. The other thing that typically happens is that players from your local team will often be drafted way too early. Last year in our league Ben Roethlisberger went in round 1.

 

[sholditch]

Haven't read the article but I get the gist. Happened to me last year too, even though I drafted Cpep at the 12. I got amazing depth at RB but it turned out to be squat and I missed the playoffs for the first time in a long time. Course, my depth at RB included Deuce, JJ, Lamont, SDavis, and Mike Anderson.

 

[barndog]

A typical example of what can happen is last year when ESPN started free leagues, their player rankings were straight 2004 points-based, so lots of QBs in the top 20. If a few of your mates didn't show up or did autopick, QBs started flying off the boards like you've never seen before. If you didn't want D Carr or A Smith, you almost *had* to take one at least by the 3rd rd. They changed the rankings later in the draft season and largely fixed that, but boy was it an eye-opener.

 

[Dreamer]

Good article.

 

[redman]

I enjoyed this article. Guppies can be dangerous the same way that rookie poker players can be dangerous. My one disagreement is the contention that guppies know just as much about football as sharks do. I'd never contend that guppies are dumb. Far from it. But there are a couple of guppies in my league that don't know much about football. They know the star players and they draft accordingly.

I would call this "magazine smart", and my redraft league is like that. There are a few guys who really study up, but at least half are guys who are casual about it, drunk on draft day, and crossing off names on page 67 of the magazine they picked up on the way out of the 7-11 when they bought their beer.

 

[gadkins]

Happend to me last year.

Drafted Priest,,Barber,,Westbrook,,Larry Johnson,,,Thomas Jones,,Willie Parker. My best receiver was Drew Bennent. I was putting trade offers out every week. Finally traded Barber for Holt and Thomas Jones for Harrison. Won the league. !!!

 

[5-ish Finkle]

This is pretty much what happens with 3 guys yearly in my 12 team re-draft. They almost certainly are drafting directly from a magazine that was printed in June, coupled with the homerism those types usually fall prey to, and in doing so you'll see some very early anamolies(McNabb being taken very early in 3, for instance, as the 2nd QB off the board.). What that winds up causing is the other couple guys who buy into the "the best starting lineup wins" mentality jump on the same train. McNabb went too early, but he made someone else go Culpepper waaay to early, which then pulled Brady and Palmer off the board shortly thereafter.

Same thing happened with TEs. Gates went about where he should of, then someone jumped a bit early on the 2nd guy about a half round later and you wind up getting someone grasping for Crumpler at the end of round 5....even though he's "hurt" at present. Silliness.

It does pose a different set of problems than being in a league full of guys who understand, and apply, VBD. You really do have to just let the draft come to you when things start going that way. Typically, any strategy or draft models you had go straight to hell. But, you can get fantastic value and depth at the "off positions" without totally sacrificing the others, if you keep your eye on it. If your league goes on a crazy WR run, and the value is continually RB when it gets to you, don't be shy about joining in on the WR run for a round if a guy you really feel good about is still there and not someone you've got rated at the bottom of a tier. Chances are, if you're taking a top- or mid-tier(whichever tier it is) guy off your projections, the position run has a pretty decent chance to continue.(Since in this scenario you have leaguemates who are prone to drafting for need/have following the herd mentality) The RB value could come right back to you anyway.

 

[The Jerk]

Good Article.... I've been in that spot, sitting on a ton of Great RB's....A good way to attack this is to Know that as a shark, Your advantage is finding Value Later, and that goes for all positions.. So, Instead of going Stud RB, you can go Stud - Stud - Which means, grab your Antonio Gates and your Randy Moss (top WR) early, heck, maybe even a QB early when you always wait for QB's till the end.. Get your Superstars early and don't worry about losing out at a position like RB, Cuz you know later on You'll be grabbing RB value that the guppies aren't onto. Maybe grab 1 stud RB early then wait on your RB depth - You'll find it.

Excellent points. Guppies tend to underrate depth at all positions, so they are less likely to handcuff top RBs. However, sharks can use this to their advantage with late picks, and sharks also can do well with waiver wire pickups, especially if the shark can get ahead of the curve and pick up players before their emergence is obvious.Few leagues are easy to win consistently even if you are a shark. Sharks may be more likely to finish in the top 3 or 4 most years, but consistently winning any league is an accomplishment.

 

[The Royal Jack]

Good Article.... I've been in that spot, sitting on a ton of Great RB's....A good way to attack this is to Know that as a shark, Your advantage is finding Value Later, and that goes for all positions.. So, Instead of going Stud RB, you can go Stud - Stud - Which means, grab your Antonio Gates and your Randy Moss (top WR) early, heck, maybe even a QB early when you always wait for QB's till the end.. Get your Superstars early and don't worry about losing out at a position like RB, Cuz you know later on You'll be grabbing RB value that the guppies aren't onto. Maybe grab 1 stud RB early then wait on your RB depth - You'll find it.

Yep - great point. Draft one stub RB and grab the TO's and Chad Johnsons of the world while you can - lest you'll be stuck with Laverneus Coles as your #1.If you are doing any Yahoo leagues for entertainment value the strategy in the article applies 99% of the time.

 

[The Jerk]

It does pose a different set of problems than being in a league full of guys who understand, and apply, VBD. You really do have to just let the draft come to you when things start going that way. Typically, any strategy or draft models you had go straight to hell. But, you can get fantastic value and depth at the "off positions" without totally sacrificing the others, if you keep your eye on it. If your league goes on a crazy WR run, and the value is continually RB when it gets to you, don't be shy about joining in on the WR run for a round if a guy you really feel good about is still there and not someone you've got rated at the bottom of a tier. Chances are, if you're taking a top- or mid-tier(whichever tier it is) guy off your projections, the position run has a pretty decent chance to continue.(Since in this scenario you have leaguemates who are prone to drafting for need/have following the herd mentality) The RB value could come right back to you anyway.

My longest-running league is split between half sharks and half guppies. This makes it even more interesting, as there seem to be "drafts within the draft" due to the differences in philosophy. One of the ways to get an advantage in leagues that feature many or mostly guppies is to know the drafting tendencies of owners, both individually and collectively.I look at drafts from the past year or two to identify which owners are likely to follow "shark" tendencies vs. those who are more mavericks (or guppies, if you prefer), especially in the early rounds. This is a tremendous help to me because I know who is likely to go earlier than expected at certain positions. In addition, knowing the collective league tendency allows me to project roughly how many QBs, RBs, WRs, etc. will be drafted by the time I pick in each of my rounds. I can now understand the type of player who I can pick from in each of those slots.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

To make a poker analogy - the most dangerous players are sometimes ones that don't play "by the book".

They can make stupid plays that would cost them against experts and over time, but in an arena where they can get away with it (i.e. multiple guppies), they'll do fine.

It will drive you nuts, for sure.

I agree that you have to "roll with it" early and get value later.

 

[David Yudkin]

I actually fare better in shark leagues than cross pollinated (some sharks and guppies) leagues. Part of that is that in leagues where everyone knows their stuff it's easier to tell what players will go where and Rudi Johnson is not going to fall into the 4th round. I've had times where studs fell by leaps and bounds and the other sharks had a field day picking up guys that should never have fallen that far (and they had two picks before I had another pick so they would get two gift picks).

The other thing I found in guppies-playing-with-sharks leagues is that some of the trades that were made were just plain wrong. I remember a guppy trading Priest Holmes in his prime for a QB2, a WR3, and a bottom tier TE1. So basically this year's equivalent of Larry Johnson for Steve McNair, Joe Jurevicius, and Ben Troupe. Basically, a shark owner raped and defiled 2-3 of the guppies and ended up with a team of uber stud Pro Bowlers.

I personally would never even OFFER someone that trade as it is majorly insulting, but I guess that's what it takes to win some of those leagues.

 

[Joseph]

A couple years ago I was in this position. By the end of the draft I had 8 RB's who had a starting NFL position (Kevan Barlow with my last pick). I figured at some point the guy who was counting on a couple of scrub RB's would gladly trade me a stud WR for one of my many RB's.

Turns out guppys will gladly pick up mike alstott off the waiver wire and start him for 10 straight weeks.

My main realization there is that I can get away going RB, WR, WR, QB and still end the draft being confident in my backfield and have more depth than I'm likely to need in a draft.

 

[The Jerk]

It's important to stay the course when you're in a mostly guppy league. Depth and waiver wire management tend to be weaknesses of most guppies, so even if your draft was frustrating due to these "unorthodox" techniques, you might yet catch up and pass these teams over a full season of attrition.

 

[redman]

The bottom line is that you don't win your league in the first couple of rounds in drafts like this; you win in the middle rounds when you're getting guys who have obvious flaws but not-so-obvious upsides that your less-prepared leaguemates may not know much about.

 

[B. Nugget]

"Picture this: you're drafting fourth in a ten-team league. You happily snap up Clinton Portis with your first round pick. After a quick QB run, you're overjoyed to see Rudi Johnson still somehow on the board at 2.07 and grab him too. At 3.04, you can't believe your luck when Brian Westbrook is there for the taking. You're living the fantasy shark's dream."

Wow, this sounds just like me last year, Duece, Portis, Rudi and Dillon in the first 4 rounds, but I was lucky enough to draft Steve Smith in round 5 and Driver in round 6 after the T.O.s and Randy Mosses were gone and the other guys were looking for RBs.

The key is hitting on those other guys, and it is often easier said than done.

B. Nugget

 

[Deuce'sWild]

I play in one league with mostly sharks, and another with mostly guppies. I get made fun of for making projections. It's the shark league that I tend to do best in, as I can predict who will be available when better, so I know when to wait and when to pull the trigger on a guy I want. In a guppie league, if you're waiting on Drew Bledsoe until the 7th or 8th rd, someone might take him in the 3rd rd. All strategies as far as who to pick when go out the door.

That being said, I think it's the guppie league where you can wait for RB talent. Seems like QBs, WRs, and TEs all go earlier than they should. And low and behold Chester Taylor or Kevin Jones is still on the board in the 5th rd.

Guppies tend to fill in their lineup. So, you can almost count on RBs 18-24 being there in the 4-6 rds.

 

[The Jerk]

I think it's the guppie league where you can wait for RB talent.

Might be the single-best piece of advice wrt Gup leagues.

 

[jdoggydogg]

I play in one league with mostly sharks, and another with mostly guppies. I get made fun of for making projections. It's the shark league that I tend to do best in, as I can predict who will be available when better, so I know when to wait and when to pull the trigger on a guy I want. In a guppie league, if you're waiting on Drew Bledsoe until the 7th or 8th rd, someone might take him in the 3rd rd. All strategies as far as who to pick when go out the door.That being said, I think it's the guppie league where you can wait for RB talent. Seems like QBs, WRs, and TEs all go earlier than they should. And low and behold Chester Taylor or Kevin Jones is still on the board in the 5th rd.Guppies tend to fill in their lineup. So, you can almost count on RBs 18-24 being there in the 4-6 rds.

This has probably been mentioned before, but it finally just now occurred to me: I need to bring my FBG magazine to the draft for the sole purpose of reminding myself how some of these players will be overrated by magazine addicts.

 

[coolnerd]

Good Article.... I've been in that spot, sitting on a ton of Great RB's....

A good way to attack this is to Know that as a shark, Your advantage is finding Value Later, and that goes for all positions.. So, Instead of going Stud RB, you can go Stud - Stud - Which means, grab your Antonio Gates and your Randy Moss (top WR) early, heck, maybe even a QB early when you always wait for QB's till the end.. Get your Superstars early and don't worry about losing out at a position like RB, Cuz you know later on You'll be grabbing RB value that the guppies aren't onto. Maybe grab 1 stud RB early then wait on your RB depth - You'll find it.

Excellent points. Guppies tend to underrate depth at all positions, so they are less likely to handcuff top RBs. However, sharks can use this to their advantage with late picks, and sharks also can do well with waiver wire pickups, especially if the shark can get ahead of the curve and pick up players before their emergence is obvious.Few leagues are easy to win consistently even if you are a shark. Sharks may be more likely to finish in the top 3 or 4 most years, but consistently winning any league is an accomplishment.

I have done an informal look at this through talking with some guys who play blindly in a public leagues and this what I have found. Pretty easy to get into the playoffs, but because you are dealing with 1 game situation where anything could happen, the percentage of league titles is not much better, but the playoff appearance are much higher.

 

[The Jerk]

Good Article.... I've been in that spot, sitting on a ton of Great RB's....

A good way to attack this is to Know that as a shark, Your advantage is finding Value Later, and that goes for all positions.. So, Instead of going Stud RB, you can go Stud - Stud - Which means, grab your Antonio Gates and your Randy Moss (top WR) early, heck, maybe even a QB early when you always wait for QB's till the end.. Get your Superstars early and don't worry about losing out at a position like RB, Cuz you know later on You'll be grabbing RB value that the guppies aren't onto. Maybe grab 1 stud RB early then wait on your RB depth - You'll find it.

Excellent points. Guppies tend to underrate depth at all positions, so they are less likely to handcuff top RBs. However, sharks can use this to their advantage with late picks, and sharks also can do well with waiver wire pickups, especially if the shark can get ahead of the curve and pick up players before their emergence is obvious.Few leagues are easy to win consistently even if you are a shark. Sharks may be more likely to finish in the top 3 or 4 most years, but consistently winning any league is an accomplishment.

I have done an informal look at this through talking with some guys who play blindly in a public leagues and this what I have found. Pretty easy to get into the playoffs, but because you are dealing with 1 game situation where anything could happen, the percentage of league titles is not much better, but the playoff appearance are much higher.

Thanks coolnerd! You triggered another point. If making the playoffs is more likely but winning the championship is harder, it may pay to look harder at the Week 14-16 matchups in a guppy league than a shark league. Nothing crazy, as you still need to make the playoffs. However, some draft day decisions that are close should perhaps favor the expected easier FF playoff schedule, and waiver wire moves and trades should focus on playoff time even more so in guppy leagues than in shark leagues.

 

[BusMan]

Excellent article and really solid follow-up discussion, Poolers. This article revealed a serious lack of thinking on my part when I annually prepare for my local keep-four league. I assume things are going to happen in the draft because I assume everyone knows or thinks the same way I do. Obviously, getting inside other owner's minds is a critical part of draft prep.

I've recently had to change my pre-draft tendencies and try to send out more e-mails to league mates, always couching FF business in the guise of small talk. I don't always get the information I need out of folks, but it gives me a better overall picture of the draft-day situation I'm heading into. My local is drafting in two Saturdays (8/19), and I haven't yet nailed down a firm strategy. I know to expect certain early picks based on attractive rookies (as an example, the entire league already knows Bush is going at 01.01) and the keepers currently on other owner's teams (I fully expect the Dillon owner to grab Maroney in Round 1 if hes still available; same for the Chris Brown owner and LenDale White).

Sorry to get bogged down in the intricacies of my local league, but I think the overall reminder I get from this article is two-fold:

1. Attempt to determine a baseline knowledge-set of your league mates by labeling them uber-shark, shark, average, guppie, uber-guppie, etc. Then run mocks with DD attempting to model that behavior. Its certain to shed new rays of light on the opportunites that may arise come draft day.

2. Don't just fill up on information from FBG (as excellent as a tool it is), but actively politic for "inside" league information. ADP is a relatively worthless draft day guide if you're the only owner following it. Knowing what the other owners tendancies and likes/dislikes (like keeping a file on their favorite NFL teams, players they've frequently rostered, etc.) are can really go a long way when preparing for the draft.

Honestly, this is the most important piece of FF strategy I've read in a few years. I feel as though its reshaped my focus, and I only read it 20 minutes ago.

Apologies for the length and the rambling; lets keep this discussion going.

 

[BusMan]

Good Article.... I've been in that spot, sitting on a ton of Great RB's....

A good way to attack this is to Know that as a shark, Your advantage is finding Value Later, and that goes for all positions.. So, Instead of going Stud RB, you can go Stud - Stud - Which means, grab your Antonio Gates and your Randy Moss (top WR) early, heck, maybe even a QB early when you always wait for QB's till the end.. Get your Superstars early and don't worry about losing out at a position like RB, Cuz you know later on You'll be grabbing RB value that the guppies aren't onto. Maybe grab 1 stud RB early then wait on your RB depth - You'll find it.

Excellent points. Guppies tend to underrate depth at all positions, so they are less likely to handcuff top RBs. However, sharks can use this to their advantage with late picks, and sharks also can do well with waiver wire pickups, especially if the shark can get ahead of the curve and pick up players before their emergence is obvious.Few leagues are easy to win consistently even if you are a shark. Sharks may be more likely to finish in the top 3 or 4 most years, but consistently winning any league is an accomplishment.

I have done an informal look at this through talking with some guys who play blindly in a public leagues and this what I have found. Pretty easy to get into the playoffs, but because you are dealing with 1 game situation where anything could happen, the percentage of league titles is not much better, but the playoff appearance are much higher.

Thanks coolnerd! You triggered another point. If making the playoffs is more likely but winning the championship is harder, it may pay to look harder at the Week 14-16 matchups in a guppy league than a shark league. Nothing crazy, as you still need to make the playoffs. However, some draft day decisions that are close should perhaps favor the expected easier FF playoff schedule, and waiver wire moves and trades should focus on playoff time even more so in guppy leagues than in shark leagues.

Exactly. So running a few mocks in DD with highly weighted end-of-season weeks should reap good dividends.

 

[Warpig]

My one disagreement is the contention that guppies know just as much about football as sharks do. I'd never contend that guppies are dumb. Far from it. But there are a couple of guppies in my league that don't know much about football. They know the star players and they draft accordingly.

Sounds like my 9 year old.

On the other end of the spectrum, my wife is a physical therapist and one of her patients is a 10 year old.

She said whenever he comes in for therapy he's constantly talking about football. Apparently he plays fantasy football and my wife said he was rattling off all these different stats for various players, could name all the teams in every division...INCLUDING COLLEGE! Knew all the team rivalries. She said that she mentioned to him that I played FF and he then was asking her if I needed any help drafting my team!



When I was 10 years old I was too busy collecting football cards and comics and rolling around in the mud.

 

[RC94]

Great article. I haven't played in a guppie league in a long time, but I have been helping a friend prepare for his 2 local/bar-type leagues and this definitely gives me some insight in how to adjust the strategy accordingly.

 

[coolnerd]

Good Article.... I've been in that spot, sitting on a ton of Great RB's....

A good way to attack this is to Know that as a shark, Your advantage is finding Value Later, and that goes for all positions.. So, Instead of going Stud RB, you can go Stud - Stud - Which means, grab your Antonio Gates and your Randy Moss (top WR) early, heck, maybe even a QB early when you always wait for QB's till the end.. Get your Superstars early and don't worry about losing out at a position like RB, Cuz you know later on You'll be grabbing RB value that the guppies aren't onto. Maybe grab 1 stud RB early then wait on your RB depth - You'll find it.

Excellent points. Guppies tend to underrate depth at all positions, so they are less likely to handcuff top RBs. However, sharks can use this to their advantage with late picks, and sharks also can do well with waiver wire pickups, especially if the shark can get ahead of the curve and pick up players before their emergence is obvious.Few leagues are easy to win consistently even if you are a shark. Sharks may be more likely to finish in the top 3 or 4 most years, but consistently winning any league is an accomplishment.

I have done an informal look at this through talking with some guys who play blindly in a public leagues and this what I have found. Pretty easy to get into the playoffs, but because you are dealing with 1 game situation where anything could happen, the percentage of league titles is not much better, but the playoff appearance are much higher.

Thanks coolnerd! You triggered another point. If making the playoffs is more likely but winning the championship is harder, it may pay to look harder at the Week 14-16 matchups in a guppy league than a shark league. Nothing crazy, as you still need to make the playoffs. However, some draft day decisions that are close should perhaps favor the expected easier FF playoff schedule, and waiver wire moves and trades should focus on playoff time even more so in guppy leagues than in shark leagues.

those "results" are pretty informal. I have been tempted in the past to have to organize this more to do an article. Get a good number of "sharks" to play dog free leagues seriously and report the results and if there is anything to learn or help out in more serious leagues. Probably would be an overload for me this year, but maybe in the future.

 

[Mario Kart]

This is the one HUGE problem with Stud RB theory. It doesnt work plain and simple. Projecting Stud RB's is a crap shoot anyway and people drafting 3 RB's in the first three rounds are simply "hedging their bets" when those same points could be made up with other positions.

There should also be no terms such as "shark" and/or "guppie" used when talking about fantasy football. They are all one in the same and the money put down on a league does not dictate the level of knowledge either in this medium. Any "expert" article using these terms means very little in the grand scheme of things.

Stud RB theory is only appliable when the starting requirements are flawed. See sig for a true way of playing this game.

 

[The Jerk]

Good Article.... I've been in that spot, sitting on a ton of Great RB's....

A good way to attack this is to Know that as a shark, Your advantage is finding Value Later, and that goes for all positions.. So, Instead of going Stud RB, you can go Stud - Stud - Which means, grab your Antonio Gates and your Randy Moss (top WR) early, heck, maybe even a QB early when you always wait for QB's till the end.. Get your Superstars early and don't worry about losing out at a position like RB, Cuz you know later on You'll be grabbing RB value that the guppies aren't onto. Maybe grab 1 stud RB early then wait on your RB depth - You'll find it.

Excellent points. Guppies tend to underrate depth at all positions, so they are less likely to handcuff top RBs. However, sharks can use this to their advantage with late picks, and sharks also can do well with waiver wire pickups, especially if the shark can get ahead of the curve and pick up players before their emergence is obvious.Few leagues are easy to win consistently even if you are a shark. Sharks may be more likely to finish in the top 3 or 4 most years, but consistently winning any league is an accomplishment.

I have done an informal look at this through talking with some guys who play blindly in a public leagues and this what I have found. Pretty easy to get into the playoffs, but because you are dealing with 1 game situation where anything could happen, the percentage of league titles is not much better, but the playoff appearance are much higher.

Thanks coolnerd! You triggered another point. If making the playoffs is more likely but winning the championship is harder, it may pay to look harder at the Week 14-16 matchups in a guppy league than a shark league. Nothing crazy, as you still need to make the playoffs. However, some draft day decisions that are close should perhaps favor the expected easier FF playoff schedule, and waiver wire moves and trades should focus on playoff time even more so in guppy leagues than in shark leagues.

those "results" are pretty informal. I have been tempted in the past to have to organize this more to do an article. Get a good number of "sharks" to play dog free leagues seriously and report the results and if there is anything to learn or help out in more serious leagues. Probably would be an overload for me this year, but maybe in the future.

Thanks for clarifying. Even if it's not ironclad, it's a reasonable assumption. More importantly, if I'm in a league with only a few sharks, I wouldn't consider it a good season just to make the playoffs. In other words, regardless of what the data shows, my mindset in a guppy league is to win it.Of course, a lot depends on how many teams make the playoffs. You need to focus more on making the playoffs if its 4 out of 12 teams instead of, say, 6 out of 10.

 

[Deuce'sWild]

I've found that doing mocks of my league, Chambers and Harrison are there at 3.03.

Should I take Chambers, since Harrison will likely be sitting during the playoffs...following this line of thinking we've discussed about the playoffs???

 

[The Jerk]

I've found that doing mocks of my league, Chambers and Harrison are there at 3.03.Should I take Chambers, since Harrison will likely be sitting during the playoffs...following this line of thinking we've discussed about the playoffs???

I would select Harrison as I don't think Chambers measures up to Marvin's consistently high level of production. If you project Harrison to decline or Chambers to maintain his torrid pace at the end of 2005, then definitely go with Chambers.I'm pretty sure Indy doesn't rest players as early this year. First off, I don't see them repeating their 13-0 start. Even if they do, I'm pretty sure they will play their starters through Week 16 so that they don't get as rusty as they did last year and find themselves down 18 points nearly three quarters into their playoff game.

 

[coolnerd]

Good Article.... I've been in that spot, sitting on a ton of Great RB's....

A good way to attack this is to Know that as a shark, Your advantage is finding Value Later, and that goes for all positions.. So, Instead of going Stud RB, you can go Stud - Stud - Which means, grab your Antonio Gates and your Randy Moss (top WR) early, heck, maybe even a QB early when you always wait for QB's till the end.. Get your Superstars early and don't worry about losing out at a position like RB, Cuz you know later on You'll be grabbing RB value that the guppies aren't onto. Maybe grab 1 stud RB early then wait on your RB depth - You'll find it.

Excellent points. Guppies tend to underrate depth at all positions, so they are less likely to handcuff top RBs. However, sharks can use this to their advantage with late picks, and sharks also can do well with waiver wire pickups, especially if the shark can get ahead of the curve and pick up players before their emergence is obvious.Few leagues are easy to win consistently even if you are a shark. Sharks may be more likely to finish in the top 3 or 4 most years, but consistently winning any league is an accomplishment.

I have done an informal look at this through talking with some guys who play blindly in a public leagues and this what I have found. Pretty easy to get into the playoffs, but because you are dealing with 1 game situation where anything could happen, the percentage of league titles is not much better, but the playoff appearance are much higher.

Thanks coolnerd! You triggered another point. If making the playoffs is more likely but winning the championship is harder, it may pay to look harder at the Week 14-16 matchups in a guppy league than a shark league. Nothing crazy, as you still need to make the playoffs. However, some draft day decisions that are close should perhaps favor the expected easier FF playoff schedule, and waiver wire moves and trades should focus on playoff time even more so in guppy leagues than in shark leagues.

those "results" are pretty informal. I have been tempted in the past to have to organize this more to do an article. Get a good number of "sharks" to play dog free leagues seriously and report the results and if there is anything to learn or help out in more serious leagues. Probably would be an overload for me this year, but maybe in the future.

Thanks for clarifying. Even if it's not ironclad, it's a reasonable assumption. More importantly, if I'm in a league with only a few sharks, I wouldn't consider it a good season just to make the playoffs. In other words, regardless of what the data shows, my mindset in a guppy league is to win it.Of course, a lot depends on how many teams make the playoffs. You need to focus more on making the playoffs if its 4 out of 12 teams instead of, say, 6 out of 10.

Of course, i assume that everyone is trying to win every league that they play. If I ever were to do this, one of my fears would be the sharks losing interest and skewing the results negatively. Then again, finding enough sharks to make it worthwhile might be an issue as many have outgrown the espn, aol, etc. free league many moons ago.

 

[The Jerk]

Good Article.... I've been in that spot, sitting on a ton of Great RB's....

A good way to attack this is to Know that as a shark, Your advantage is finding Value Later, and that goes for all positions.. So, Instead of going Stud RB, you can go Stud - Stud - Which means, grab your Antonio Gates and your Randy Moss (top WR) early, heck, maybe even a QB early when you always wait for QB's till the end.. Get your Superstars early and don't worry about losing out at a position like RB, Cuz you know later on You'll be grabbing RB value that the guppies aren't onto. Maybe grab 1 stud RB early then wait on your RB depth - You'll find it.

Excellent points. Guppies tend to underrate depth at all positions, so they are less likely to handcuff top RBs. However, sharks can use this to their advantage with late picks, and sharks also can do well with waiver wire pickups, especially if the shark can get ahead of the curve and pick up players before their emergence is obvious.Few leagues are easy to win consistently even if you are a shark. Sharks may be more likely to finish in the top 3 or 4 most years, but consistently winning any league is an accomplishment.

I have done an informal look at this through talking with some guys who play blindly in a public leagues and this what I have found. Pretty easy to get into the playoffs, but because you are dealing with 1 game situation where anything could happen, the percentage of league titles is not much better, but the playoff appearance are much higher.

Thanks coolnerd! You triggered another point. If making the playoffs is more likely but winning the championship is harder, it may pay to look harder at the Week 14-16 matchups in a guppy league than a shark league. Nothing crazy, as you still need to make the playoffs. However, some draft day decisions that are close should perhaps favor the expected easier FF playoff schedule, and waiver wire moves and trades should focus on playoff time even more so in guppy leagues than in shark leagues.

those "results" are pretty informal. I have been tempted in the past to have to organize this more to do an article. Get a good number of "sharks" to play dog free leagues seriously and report the results and if there is anything to learn or help out in more serious leagues. Probably would be an overload for me this year, but maybe in the future.

Thanks for clarifying. Even if it's not ironclad, it's a reasonable assumption. More importantly, if I'm in a league with only a few sharks, I wouldn't consider it a good season just to make the playoffs. In other words, regardless of what the data shows, my mindset in a guppy league is to win it.Of course, a lot depends on how many teams make the playoffs. You need to focus more on making the playoffs if its 4 out of 12 teams instead of, say, 6 out of 10.

Of course, i assume that everyone is trying to win every league that they play. If I ever were to do this, one of my fears would be the sharks losing interest and skewing the results negatively. Then again, finding enough sharks to make it worthwhile might be an issue as many have outgrown the espn, aol, etc. free league many moons ago.

I'm not sure if I made my point well enough. In order to win, you need to make the playoffs. If you draft to peak Weeks 14-16, you may cost yourself a game (maybe two) during the regular season. That can be the difference in making vs. missing the playoffs. I tend to not worry about making the playoffs, so I'm willing to gamble that I'm good enough to make the playoffs even while focusing on Weeks 14-16.Either way you are playing to win. After all, you can't win if you don't make the playoffs. The conservative approach is to do everything you can just to make the playoffs. The aggressive/riskier approach is to expect to make the playoffs and forge a team that will be at its best in Weeks 14-16. Hope that's more clear.

 

[coolnerd]

Gotcha.

 

[Third]

Fascinating.

This article spurred me to go back and look at draft tendencies of my fellow owners from last year's draft. I found some GREAT information that I kinda overlooked before. EVERY TEAM except me drafted a QB in rounds 1-5 last year (10-team). Three teams drafted 2 QBs in the first 7 rounds. Also, only 2 WRs were taken in the first 3 rounds (and this is a PPR league).

Needless to say, this is probably the most valuable information I can have in trying to formulate some type of draft strategy. Only thing that complicates matters is that we are in our first year of keep 3 (keeping players drafted in 2005). Should help me in knowing who to protect and who to expect to be available when I pick.

 

[Andrew74]

A typical example of what can happen is last year when ESPN started free leagues, their player rankings were straight 2004 points-based, so lots of QBs in the top 20. If a few of your mates didn't show up or did autopick, QBs started flying off the boards like you've never seen before. If you didn't want D Carr or A Smith, you almost *had* to take one at least by the 3rd rd. They changed the rankings later in the draft season and largely fixed that, but boy was it an eye-opener.

A guy in one of my leagues was late to the draft and didn't change his autodraft order so his first 3 picks were QBs. Guy did okay for the year with some trades. But it did screw up one's strategy for picking a QB.

 

[Draftnik]

Nice article and I largely agree with it and a lot of points in the follow up discussion here. One thing I am interested to know is whether the author's points are the result of any analysis of actual draft data (and knowing the individual participants of drafts so as to differentiate Sharks from Guppies) or if the piece is largely anecdotal and opinion-based.

Anyone know for sure?

 

[Raider Nation]

This was my favorite line in the piece:

Sharks assume they'll dominate the guppies, with their VBD and ADP and giant shark brains.

I played in a league with 11 guppies. Did it as a favor to a buddy. It's just not fun. It really isn't. One guy drafted Fred Lane -- a month after he died. The draft creeps along because an owner takes five minutes trying to decide between a backup QB who will never see the field and ANOTHER backup QB who will never see the field. I counted at least 15 instances when a guppy owner selected a player who had been drafted approximately ten rounds earlier. I counted at least 20 instances when a guppy owner asked out loud "So WHO is the kicker for ________?" "So WHO is the backup QB for ________?" Then they borrow each other's magazines, to ascertain exactly which three-month-old rag contained the latest information. Yes, I won the league.

No, I couldn't have been less excited about it.

 

[The Jerk]

This was my favorite line in the piece:

Sharks assume they'll dominate the guppies, with their VBD and ADP and giant shark brains.

I played in a league with 11 guppies. Did it as a favor to a buddy. It's just not fun. It really isn't. One guy drafted Fred Lane -- a month after he died. The draft creeps along because an owner takes five minutes trying to decide between a backup QB who will never see the field and ANOTHER backup QB who will never see the field. I counted at least 15 instances when a guppy owner selected a player who had been drafted approximately ten rounds earlier. I counted at least 20 instances when a guppy owner asked out loud "So WHO is the kicker for ________?" "So WHO is the backup QB for ________?" Then they borrow each other's magazines, to ascertain exactly which three-month-old rag contained the latest information. Yes, I won the league.

No, I couldn't have been less excited about it.

That sounds more like a :11: league than a guppy league. I'm surprised the owners actually made it to the draft in that league.The article does a good job of describing guppy owners as being smart, just not thinking conventionally (at least how the Shark Pool defines it) wrt FF.

 

[jdoggydogg]

This was my favorite line in the piece:

Sharks assume they'll dominate the guppies, with their VBD and ADP and giant shark brains.

I played in a league with 11 guppies. Did it as a favor to a buddy. It's just not fun. It really isn't. One guy drafted Fred Lane -- a month after he died. The draft creeps along because an owner takes five minutes trying to decide between a backup QB who will never see the field and ANOTHER backup QB who will never see the field. I counted at least 15 instances when a guppy owner selected a player who had been drafted approximately ten rounds earlier. I counted at least 20 instances when a guppy owner asked out loud "So WHO is the kicker for ________?" "So WHO is the backup QB for ________?" Then they borrow each other's magazines, to ascertain exactly which three-month-old rag contained the latest information. Yes, I won the league.

No, I couldn't have been less excited about it.

I am in a league that has both sharks and guppies. One Raider fan drafted Sebastian Janikowski in the third round. We were laughing so hard, the walls almost fell down.

 

[Raider Nation]

This was my favorite line in the piece:

Sharks assume they'll dominate the guppies, with their VBD and ADP and giant shark brains.

I played in a league with 11 guppies. Did it as a favor to a buddy. It's just not fun. It really isn't. One guy drafted Fred Lane -- a month after he died. The draft creeps along because an owner takes five minutes trying to decide between a backup QB who will never see the field and ANOTHER backup QB who will never see the field. I counted at least 15 instances when a guppy owner selected a player who had been drafted approximately ten rounds earlier. I counted at least 20 instances when a guppy owner asked out loud "So WHO is the kicker for ________?" "So WHO is the backup QB for ________?" Then they borrow each other's magazines, to ascertain exactly which three-month-old rag contained the latest information. Yes, I won the league.

No, I couldn't have been less excited about it.

I am in a league that has both sharks and guppies. One Raider fan drafted Sebastian Janikowski in the third round. We were laughing so hard, the walls almost fell down.

Most Raider fans aren't too bright.