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When Sharks Swim with Guppies (1 Viewer)

A buddy of mine just got back from his 12-team draft and reviewed his team drafting from the 12 hole. I almost threw up. IIRC . . .

12 Gore

13 Alexander

36 Ocho Cinco

37 T.O.

60 McGahee

61 Evans

84 Palmer

85 Cooley

It got worse as he went along. Basically, he had one or two Top 5 guys at each spot with Top 10 guys backing them up at just about every position. Luckily for him people put up money for this thing and if he doesn't win I will be shocked.

 
:suds: :lmao: I read about half way through the first page before realizing this was a 2006 thread.
The artticle has been updated in the subscriber section for 2007.
It's cool Bristol, I was laughing at myself for not noticing the date.Our league doesn't have any true guppies; but we get the occaisonal Tom Brady 1st rounder....12-team PPRWhat's interesting is most folks don't change up their strategy. There's 2 teams that always draft Manning and Brady/Palmer in R1. Then there's a few that ALWAYS go RB/WR and the rest go RB/RB/WR or RB/RB/RB. Rather predicable compared to your league and the one described in the new article.
 
A buddy of mine just got back from his 12-team draft and reviewed his team drafting from the 12 hole. I almost threw up. IIRC . . .12 Gore13 Alexander36 Ocho Cinco37 T.O.60 McGahee61 Evans84 Palmer85 CooleyIt got worse as he went along. Basically, he had one or two Top 5 guys at each spot with Top 10 guys backing them up at just about every position. Luckily for him people put up money for this thing and if he doesn't win I will be shocked.
See, to me these kind of leagues just aren't that much fun. I mean they are kinda boring. Unless you have a couple of other good owners in the league to compete with.**ETA** I'm in a 12 team free CBS league with 3 other friends. I just traded away Driver for Holt......Someone dropped McNabb to pick up Grossman.......Not that much fun, but at least the competition between us for will be good. Especially when we're trading Driver for Holt and picking up McNabb on the WW.
 
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A buddy of mine just got back from his 12-team draft and reviewed his team drafting from the 12 hole. I almost threw up. IIRC . . .12 Gore13 Alexander36 Ocho Cinco37 T.O.60 McGahee61 Evans84 Palmer85 CooleyIt got worse as he went along. Basically, he had one or two Top 5 guys at each spot with Top 10 guys backing them up at just about every position. Luckily for him people put up money for this thing and if he doesn't win I will be shocked.
See, to me these kind of leagues just aren't that much fun. I mean they are kinda boring. Unless you have a couple of other good owners in the league to compete with.
I hear ya, which is why I can't stand being in them either. However, if people are willing to throw in money and they are easy pickings, it's almost stupid to not join them and get half your winter vacation paid for.
 
A buddy of mine just got back from his 12-team draft and reviewed his team drafting from the 12 hole. I almost threw up. IIRC . . .12 Gore13 Alexander36 Ocho Cinco37 T.O.60 McGahee61 Evans84 Palmer85 CooleyIt got worse as he went along. Basically, he had one or two Top 5 guys at each spot with Top 10 guys backing them up at just about every position. Luckily for him people put up money for this thing and if he doesn't win I will be shocked.
See, to me these kind of leagues just aren't that much fun. I mean they are kinda boring. Unless you have a couple of other good owners in the league to compete with.
I hear ya, which is why I can't stand being in them either. However, if people are willing to throw in money and they are easy pickings, it's almost stupid to not join them and get half your winter vacation paid for.
Agreed on that point.
 
A buddy of mine just got back from his 12-team draft and reviewed his team drafting from the 12 hole. I almost threw up. IIRC . . .12 Gore13 Alexander36 Ocho Cinco37 T.O.60 McGahee61 Evans84 Palmer85 Cooley
That's actually pretty surprising. I could see getting a somewhat under-the-radar guy like Cooley or even Evans well below their ADP. But guys like Johnson and Owens usually go early in guppy drafts, not late. And a stud QB like Palmer will almost never fall past the second round, let alone to the seventh.In the article, I write that "Guppies aren't stupid... The guppy is just as smart as you are. He just doesn't follow the standard fantasy shark gameplan". It sounds like your buddy was drafting with whatever you'd call the level below guppies. Plankton?
 
This article reminded me why some of us snag Portis up in this years draft knowing he will be fine come regular season and why some let him slide and past them up in their drafts.

:goodposting: :ptts:

 
Nice article and I largely agree with it and a lot of points in the follow up discussion here. One thing I am interested to know is whether the author's points are the result of any analysis of actual draft data (and knowing the individual participants of drafts so as to differentiate Sharks from Guppies) or if the piece is largely anecdotal and opinion-based.Anyone know for sure?
It's based on my personal experience in three leagues, including my first (when I was the guppy).I wrote the first version of this article three or four years ago. I found that I kept underperforming in my leagues (based on the amount of preperation I was putting into them) and I decided to try to figure out why. I went back over a few years of draft history which I'd held onto to look for patterns, and I found them. Over the years I've revised the article each season, tweaking it based on observation. For example, four years ago guppies had never heard of RB stud. Now they know it, they just don't take it as far as the sharks want to. That sort of thing.So it's mostly anecdotal and opinion-based as opposed to some sort of in-depth analysis, but it is based on several year's worth of personal draft data.
Great article! Well written and I liked not getting bogged down in stats. It just made sense and really clicked with me.Thanks.
 
smcindoe said:
David Yudkin said:
A buddy of mine just got back from his 12-team draft and reviewed his team drafting from the 12 hole. I almost threw up. IIRC . . .12 Gore13 Alexander36 Ocho Cinco37 T.O.60 McGahee61 Evans84 Palmer85 Cooley
That's actually pretty surprising. I could see getting a somewhat under-the-radar guy like Cooley or even Evans well below their ADP. But guys like Johnson and Owens usually go early in guppy drafts, not late. And a stud QB like Palmer will almost never fall past the second round, let alone to the seventh.In the article, I write that "Guppies aren't stupid... The guppy is just as smart as you are. He just doesn't follow the standard fantasy shark gameplan". It sounds like your buddy was drafting with whatever you'd call the level below guppies. Plankton?
From the way it was described, drafters hoarded players from their favorite teams. Homerism at its finest. So that meant Pats, Jets, Giants, Skins, Broncos, Steelers, Rams, and Eagles went quickly. IIRC, Tom Brady went before Manning did in the first round. Players from teams no one followed fell pretty far because nowhere cared about them in the first place. For some reason, DEF/ST went before some teams took their WRs.My buddy is a Cowboys fan and I believe he took Witten AND JJones with his next set of picks. Given that a couple guys love the G-men and Iggles, they would not be caught dead with a Cowboy on their rosters. This league is a bunch of casual fans not fantasy geeks. Most of them hadn't even thought about football since the SB and basically did very little research.
 
Great article, very much like some drafts I've seen.

On these boards it seems like guppy and shark has morphed into these two definitions:

guppy - doesn't use Stud RB theory

shark - uses Stud RB theory religiously, this drafter relies on a strict draft script because "it works, don't tell me it doesn't"

At the end of the day, the greatest draft strategy is - let the draft come to you

A personal story of mine is from a draft a few weeks ago. In the first round Leinart and Vince Young came off the board. I wound up with T. Henry, Alexander, and R. Johnson the first three rounds (had a W/R flex position). Fourth round, Bulger was still on the board - no brainer. Fifth and Sixth rounds gave me Javon Walker and A. Johnson.

I committed a major "shark" sin, I drafted a QB before a WR. It worked out just fine.

Here's how you draft with "guppies": ditch the scripts

 
I just went through this experience yesterday

I landed up with Reggie Wayne, Lee Evans & Plaxico Burress at 3.08, 4.05 & 5.08 in a PPR, able to start 3 WRs league.

Someone picked Drew Brees at 3.07, leaving Reggie Wayne to me. Also notables were Bears defense at 4.04 and Ravens defense at 5.10

And of course kickers were flying off the board from round 8 onwards. I did not even draft a single kicker, so one guppie asked me:

Guppie: "Are you going to play without a K this year?"

Me: "No"

Guppie: "But you did not draft any?"

Me: "That does not mean I cannot get one by the time week 1 rolls in"

Guppie: "But you will be forced to play with a crappy K then"

Me: "Trust me, I will use the WW every week to change my kicker and at the end of the season, my K position will outscore your 8th round pick (Nate Kaeding)...happens every year"

Guppie: Silence....

 
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This article reminded me why some of us snag Portis up in this years draft knowing he will be fine come regular season and why some let him slide and past them up in their drafts. :goodposting: :fishy:
Thats what I thought, but it has worked the opposite. Portis was drafted 2. 4 and 2.7. When I asked the owners if they were worried about his knee, neither knew he had an injury at all!-
 
I just went through this experience yesterdayI landed up with Reggie Wayne, Lee Evans & Plaxico Burress at 3.08, 4.05 & 5.08 in a PPR, able to start 3 WRs league.Someone picked Drew Brees at 3.07, leaving Reggie Wayne to me. Also notables were Bears defense at 4.04 and Ravens defense at 5.10And of course kickers were flying off the board from round 8 onwards. I did not even draft a single kicker, so one guppie asked me: Guppie: "Are you going to play without a K this year?"Me: "No"Guppie: "But you did not draft any?"Me: "That does not mean I cannot get one by the time week 1 rolls in"Guppie: "But you will be forced to play with a crappy K then"Me: "Trust me, I will use the WW every week to change my kicker and at the end of the season, my K position will outscore your 8th round pick (Nate Kaeding)...happens every year"Guppie: Silence....
Your Guppie now = Baby Shark
 

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