I have 2 drafts next weekend and I'm trying to figure out where the holdout and injured players got drafted this weekend. I know I can go look at ADP's but a lot of things have changed for some of these players so the ADP's aren't completely accurate. Any extra details on your league rules is appreciated.
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Where did the holdouts/injured players get drafted this past weekend (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter beast8812
- Start date
solorca
Footballguy
12 team league. We have two keepers each, so I don't know if this helps too much, but...
KEPT PLAYERS - Rice, Foster, McCoy, Murray, Lynch, Fred Jackson
Drafted -
1. Chris Johnson
2. Darren Mcfadden
3. Adrian Peterson (first surprise)
4. Matt Forte
5. MJD
6. Trent Richardson
7. Charles
8. Jackson
9. Turner
10. Mathews
Wallace went off the board really early, as the 5th WR off the board (with 6 kept)
KEPT PLAYERS - Rice, Foster, McCoy, Murray, Lynch, Fred Jackson
Drafted -
1. Chris Johnson
2. Darren Mcfadden
3. Adrian Peterson (first surprise)
4. Matt Forte
5. MJD
6. Trent Richardson
7. Charles
8. Jackson
9. Turner
10. Mathews
Wallace went off the board really early, as the 5th WR off the board (with 6 kept)
Rick James
Footballguy
All over the place...
AP - 2.1
MJD - 2.10
TRich - 3rd round
Mike Wallace - 4th round
I had a chance to take MJD at 2.6, but passed. Just have a bad feeling about him. Holding out + no practice + running back = injury, imo.
AP - 2.1
MJD - 2.10
TRich - 3rd round
Mike Wallace - 4th round
I had a chance to take MJD at 2.6, but passed. Just have a bad feeling about him. Holding out + no practice + running back = injury, imo.
Shutout
Footballguy
Really? He was drafted that high?
bagger
Footballguy
1 point ppr league, 6 points for all tds so qbs get drafted earlier, but shouldnt skew the adp too much. drafted last night. 12 team league. 18 rounds.MJD: 2.03Peterson: 2.05Matthews: 8.08Charles: 3.01Richardson: 2.10 (this was me and with sproles gone took a flyer since i got rice at 1.03). the owner on the turn at 2.12 is a browns fan so i knew he was not coming back to me at 3.03Wallace: 5.06Britt: 7.10Best: 17.01 (i took smith at 8.10, leshoure went at 15.11)'beast8812 said:
matttyl
Footballguy
Drafted in a 10 teamer PPR yesterday afternoon -
MJD went 7th overall (same team got T Rich at 327)
Peterson went 16th overall
Ryan Mathews went 19th overall
T Rich went 27th overall (same team got MJD at 7)
Wallace with 43rd overall
Britt went 95th overall (I got him)
LeShoure went 186th overall (I got him)
Mendy went 190th overall
Best went 195th overall (I got him)
Kevin Smith went 110 overall - I like getting LeShoure and Best much later, and this was a 29 round draft with IDP.
MJD went 7th overall (same team got T Rich at 327)
Peterson went 16th overall
Ryan Mathews went 19th overall
T Rich went 27th overall (same team got MJD at 7)
Wallace with 43rd overall
Britt went 95th overall (I got him)
LeShoure went 186th overall (I got him)
Mendy went 190th overall
Best went 195th overall (I got him)
Kevin Smith went 110 overall - I like getting LeShoure and Best much later, and this was a 29 round draft with IDP.
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I took MJD yesterday with the 2.08 pick in a 12 team 0.5ppr league...players still on the board were sjax, sproles, peterson, richardson...ended up getting sjax with the 3.05 pick...
I was able to get Hillis and Kevin Smith, so if MJD is not going to contribute the first few weeks, then at least I'll have a guy who is going to get the bulk of his teams carries for the first 2 games (smith) and another capable RB (hillis)...
here's where i may have screwed up: round 9 comes around and I still needed a TE, but in the back of my mind I'm thinking that I need grab Rashad Jennings in case this MJD thing gets outta control...Pettigrew was still there so I took him with the belief that Jennings will come back around to me at 10.08. Well, I was wrong as he was snagged up at the 10.05 spot. Not a killer but I sure would have liked to have him....
here's what i can see happening with MJD...he reports in the next 7-10 days in good shape- but probably not great football shape. Jax says "well we have Jennings, so you guys are going to split carries, in fact Jennings might get the majority until you're back in football shape"....MJD takes a couple weeks to get back to his old self, which is fine since Smith has potential to give RB1 production in weeks 1 and 2 if all goes well for him...
anyway, its a gamble, but i think MJD is a good second round pick if you can withstand the possibility of having to bench him the first two games
I was able to get Hillis and Kevin Smith, so if MJD is not going to contribute the first few weeks, then at least I'll have a guy who is going to get the bulk of his teams carries for the first 2 games (smith) and another capable RB (hillis)...
here's where i may have screwed up: round 9 comes around and I still needed a TE, but in the back of my mind I'm thinking that I need grab Rashad Jennings in case this MJD thing gets outta control...Pettigrew was still there so I took him with the belief that Jennings will come back around to me at 10.08. Well, I was wrong as he was snagged up at the 10.05 spot. Not a killer but I sure would have liked to have him....
here's what i can see happening with MJD...he reports in the next 7-10 days in good shape- but probably not great football shape. Jax says "well we have Jennings, so you guys are going to split carries, in fact Jennings might get the majority until you're back in football shape"....MJD takes a couple weeks to get back to his old self, which is fine since Smith has potential to give RB1 production in weeks 1 and 2 if all goes well for him...
anyway, its a gamble, but i think MJD is a good second round pick if you can withstand the possibility of having to bench him the first two games
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Deamon
Footballguy
Let's hope this is a keeper/dynasty league or else maybe you shouldn't be calling people noobs
bagger
Footballguy
how bad you think the knee will be?
Deamon
Footballguy
Not sure, but he's slipping into mid 3rd adp
urbanhack
Fight The Power!
grabbed him at 4.8 today (12 team | redraft)
rizzler
Footballguy
That is criminal.
bagger
Footballguy
bagger
Footballguy
my view is more on a ppg basis.if trich is slow the first month, thats ok. i have ray rice and will likely start k smith against the rams week 1 anyway.if t rich performs as a top 10 back on a ppg basis the 2nd half of the year he will be well worth the price of 2.10 imo.
rizzler
Footballguy
by averaging 3.9ypc over 2 games?
LittlePhatty
Footballguy
I took Wallace at 41 yesterday, but it was in a Keep 3 league so that number is skewed a little bit.
And, this makes him a noob how?
Clifford
Footballguy
yes. IOW we have a passable back that can handle the duties so we don't have to rush T-Rich to 20 cpg right away and risk reinjury.I do not think Hardesty is comparable to TR in any way.
urbanhack
Fight The Power!
baby spider?
jurb26
Footballguy
Yeah, so if you are picking 9th you have to take him at 2.04 or you won't get him. I wanted him and there was 0 chance he'd fall to 3.09. Understanding ADPs can help you draft.
bagger
Footballguy
yes to both to the best of my knowledge.
jurb26
Footballguy
It's 3.03 right now.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
According to MFL for drafts conducted 8/15 or later in PPR leagues (like 400 drafts), here are where these guys are going on average . . .
MJD 15
ADP 22
Charles 25
Richardson 27
Mathews 37
Wallace 42
Britt 84
Best 114
Mendenhall 130
MJD 15
ADP 22
Charles 25
Richardson 27
Mathews 37
Wallace 42
Britt 84
Best 114
Mendenhall 130
Deamon
Footballguy
If you are picking 4th and really want Newton but know there's 0 chance he's there at 2.09, doesn't mean he's a good pick at 4th overall.
That means nothing without the league size, and I'm guessing you are referring to ADP?
Deamon
Footballguy
Not saying he's a noob, but calling another owners picks dumb because they pick a guy a full round before their ADP and then doing the same themselves just seems a little ironic.
Lord Fantasy
Footballguy
Love Charles at that number. He looked like his old self against St. Louis. Wonder if the 3rd preseason game will make his stock rise.
jurb26
Footballguy
Cam has an ADP of 2.07 so there is a good chance he makes it back. He went 3.03 in this draft. Bad example.
Deamon
Footballguy
It was just an example. It's the same with any player a full round before his ADP. Ok, Forte at 1.02 then. Not making it back.
Hipple Long Ware & Peete
Footballguy
Mathews went 8-8???
bagger
Footballguy
yeah, thats pretty crazy, but i think a lot of us in this draft did not want to touch him at all.like i said i got k smith at 8.10 and would have drafted smith over matthews there.i think matthews can miss a month easy and he is so injury prone even before this i thout he was over rated.
If you want a player over all other players and know he will not be there the next round, then I don't have a problem with it. If you think Forte is the #2 player and you know he's not going to be there at 2.11, then yes, you should draft Forte at 1.02.
Chicago Hooligan
Footballguy
Keep in mind that FBG grossly overrates rookie RBs every year.
Deamon
Footballguy
well maybe that guy thought wallace wouldn't be there at 5.10 and really liked him. Or maybe he really liked mathews at 1.11 and didn't think he could get him at the end of the 3rd round. Nothing wrong with that according to that logic.
jurb26
Footballguy
Mathews adp is 2.10, Wallace 5.10. These are again, bad examples.
According to that "logic?" You mean the logic of knowing ADP and knowing that if a player is projected to be drafted before your next pick and you want him above all others, you need to draft him with that pick or you won't get him? That logic? Right.Do you think there's something wrong with that or should everyone just blindly follow someone else's rankings/projections even if they really want a certain player or have him ranked higher than others? I'm not advocating taking someone 3 rounds early, mind you. But there's nothing wrong with someone following their gut and taking him a round earlier than the ADP suggests.
jurb26
Footballguy
I'm pretty sure he doesn't understand adp based on his posts thus far. Not that it matters much.I'm with you, I draft guys based off of my own projected rankings using a value based ranking chart I creat myself in excel and input my own rankings which I complete for every team. I use that and the most recent adp chart and draft based on my value chart, cross referencing with the adp to be sure I get as much value as possible. Sometimes that requires me to "reach" as the guy who is highest is not a traditional pick. I could care less. I spend a lot of time on my projections and rankings and I trust myself more than anyone else. I also know I wasn't getting Richardson a round later.If there is one thing I've learned in fantasy. It's that there's nothing worse than watching a guy you projected to be great but didn't get because you let "conventional wisdom" persuad you. I made this mistake the year P. Holmes broke out and will never do it again. I'll win or loose using my own ideas and convictions.
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Tremendous Upside
Footballguy
12 team league, .5 PPR
I took MJD at 3.04...thought that was a good risk/reward spot
He wouldn't have made it to 4.09
I took MJD at 3.04...thought that was a good risk/reward spot
He wouldn't have made it to 4.09
Deamon
Footballguy
That's fine... but maybe you shouldn't put another owner down for doing the same thing as you then. That was my point.
Deamon
Footballguy
well maybe that guy thought wallace wouldn't be there at 5.10 and really liked him. Or maybe he really liked mathews at 1.11 and didn't think he could get him at the end of the 3rd round. Nothing wrong with that according to that logic.
According to that "logic?" You mean the logic of knowing ADP and knowing that if a player is projected to be drafted before your next pick and you want him above all others, you need to draft him with that pick or you won't get him? That logic? Right.
Do you think there's something wrong with that or should everyone just blindly follow someone else's rankings/projections even if they really want a certain player or have him ranked higher than others? I'm not advocating taking someone 3 rounds early, mind you. But there's nothing wrong with someone following their gut and taking him a round earlier than the ADP suggests.
Agreed... but he is putting down another owner for taking mathews at 1.11 when he wouldn't be there at 3.11, and taking wallace when he wouldn't be there at his next pick again.
According to that "logic?" You mean the logic of knowing ADP and knowing that if a player is projected to be drafted before your next pick and you want him above all others, you need to draft him with that pick or you won't get him? That logic? Right.
Do you think there's something wrong with that or should everyone just blindly follow someone else's rankings/projections even if they really want a certain player or have him ranked higher than others? I'm not advocating taking someone 3 rounds early, mind you. But there's nothing wrong with someone following their gut and taking him a round earlier than the ADP suggests.
Agreed... but he is putting down another owner for taking mathews at 1.11 when he wouldn't be there at 3.11, and taking wallace when he wouldn't be there at his next pick again.
Deamon
Footballguy
Not bad example at all. Mathews at 2.10, so he wouldn't have been there at 3.11 when he drafted next, so why is that a bad pick if he takes mathews at 1.11? It's one rull round before his ADP... which is exactly what you did with richardson... one full round before his adp yet you are defending your move and putting down his mathews pick.
jurb26
Footballguy
Because if you are doing what I was explaining then you take Mathews at 2.02, not 1.11.....
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Deamon
Footballguy
Meh, 2.02 and 1.11 there's only one guy you have to worry about and 2 picks in between. Saying a guy reached for a guy at 1.11 but was justified at 2.02 is dumb. He reached no more for either of those guys then you did for Trich (who is now at 3.08 ADP ppr fbg rankings or 3.04 ADP non ppr), so all I'm saying is he doesn't deserve criticism if your philosophy is that reaching a full round early is ok if you won't get him later. Anyways we've talked this into the ground.
death of the cool
Footballguy
I completely agree with this...I have players color coded on my cheat sheet that shows what round they are projected to go in. If you are targeting a specific player, sometimes you will have to take a player a full round ahead of the players adp to get that player.
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