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Where is Manning being drafted in 6 pt per td leagues? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter JAMMIN
- Start date
The Jerk
Footballguy
I'd be very tempted at pick 5. Beyond consistentcy and upside is the track record of starting all 16 games. Any QB can be injured on any play, but he's more likely to stay healthy than any RB, and especially more so than to me than Gore, Parker, Westbrook, and Alexander -- to name a few RBs likely to be in mid-first round consideration.
I've had great success in years past in waiting on QBs and getting set at nearly every other position, then drafting two QBs quickly around the 6th-8th rounds. However, it doesn't always work out. I thought I was set with Hasselbeck and Culpepper last year. Yikes! I ended up picking up Matt Leinart and Alex Smith to cover the stretch run last year. It didn't matter that I had hit on Willie Parker and had three top 12 WRs. My QB situation cost me the season.
As always, you have to go into a draft prepared to take advantage of every opportunity that presents itself as the draft develops. I certainly would not rule out Manning anywhere after pick 3 in a 6 pt TD league. But any true FBG knows there is a price to be paid for drafting a QB early. So if you want to do it, you need to figure out how to make up for a weaker RB and/or WR corps. Who do you see as a RB you might be able to select in the third or fourth rounds that could turn out to be a solid RB2? Same for WR in rounds 6-7. If you have a list of four guys or so who you think can be had at that point in the draft and you like what you see, then you can truly take Manning in full confidence. If you have no idea who might be available later at RB or WR, you can still do it, buy you're flying by the seat of your pants, which usually doesn't end well.
I've had great success in years past in waiting on QBs and getting set at nearly every other position, then drafting two QBs quickly around the 6th-8th rounds. However, it doesn't always work out. I thought I was set with Hasselbeck and Culpepper last year. Yikes! I ended up picking up Matt Leinart and Alex Smith to cover the stretch run last year. It didn't matter that I had hit on Willie Parker and had three top 12 WRs. My QB situation cost me the season.
As always, you have to go into a draft prepared to take advantage of every opportunity that presents itself as the draft develops. I certainly would not rule out Manning anywhere after pick 3 in a 6 pt TD league. But any true FBG knows there is a price to be paid for drafting a QB early. So if you want to do it, you need to figure out how to make up for a weaker RB and/or WR corps. Who do you see as a RB you might be able to select in the third or fourth rounds that could turn out to be a solid RB2? Same for WR in rounds 6-7. If you have a list of four guys or so who you think can be had at that point in the draft and you like what you see, then you can truly take Manning in full confidence. If you have no idea who might be available later at RB or WR, you can still do it, buy you're flying by the seat of your pants, which usually doesn't end well.
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tombonneau
Footballguy
Dunno, that seems too early to me. If you want a stud QB, IMO if you are picking 5 you can get your RB in 1.5 and then pick up Palmer or Brady with your second round pick.I'd rather have Addai-Palmer than Manning-MJD.
hotdogcollars
Footballguy
always goes late 1st Rd in my big $$ league. note that its a PPC so that does bump up the value of some RBs ahead of him. FWIW, the guy who has taken Manning has either won the points race, or been in the title game in 6 of the past 10 seasons. So, drafting Manning in my league means a better than coin flip chance of winning $$$.
The Jerk
Footballguy
I'm not completely sold either. I just said I'd be tempted. One of the other variables to explore is knowing the league. If JAMMIN knows the tendencies of his fellow owners, he can estimate when guys like Palmer, Brady and Brees will be drafted. It could be that they'll all be available -- or all be gone -- when it comes time for his second rounder. Also, will many teams draft a 3rd RB before the end of round 5. If they don't, then JAMMIN can still get solid RB depth if not any superstars.I wouldn't do it without considering league variables and having a very solid plan on how to get RBs and WRs later than I typically like, but I would definitely do the research rather than just do it on a whim. The biggest concern is the opportunity cost of drafting Manning. What do you miss out on later in the draft by taking a QB at that point? If it's too big a cost, then you simply pass.
The Jerk
Footballguy
Remember, correlation does not imply causality. The owners had to do some other things right and it also may depend heavily on when Manning was drafted. Did they get him late first or early second or was it pick 1.02?
tombonneau
Footballguy
You hit the crux of it with the opportunity cost of Manning. That really is the heart of the matter. If you know you are in a league where a decent RB can be had in the 3rd, he's a safer pick than in a silly RB heavy league.On the flip side, the benefit of taking Manning is that you don't need to draft a backup until the later rounds of the draft, meaning you have a bit more flexibility in the 5-8 rounds to find RBs/WRs because you won't be looking to take any QBs.
Neil Beaufort Zod
Footballguy
I think six out of 10 "successful" years with Manning in a league of (I'm assuming) 10 or 12 implies a degree of causality. I have a hard time believing more than half the Manning owners "overcame" taking him with awesome drafts afterward-- even if it was the same owner who's "really good" at fantasy football. Manning has to be a part of that winning equation imo.
The Man with the Plan
Footballguy
Peyton Manning has upside? He had 35 touchdowns last season. Unless you think he's gonna play at his 2004 level when he threw 49 touchdowns he's much more likely to play worse than better this season. Don't forget Tarik Glenn his best offensive lineman and left tackle is gone. I'm supposed to think that he's gonna have one of his best seasons with no left tackle? Come on that's ridiculous. Personally I wouldn't touch him in the first round. Or the second round for that matter. If he's available in the 3rd round (which he won't be but if he was) maybe I'd take a look.
harrycarey
Footballguy
They also added another WR in the 1st to work from the slot like Stokley did in that 2004 season..... with Rhodes gone you figure they might run less and throw more as the backups haven't really shown much.
LayinTheSmackDown
Footballguy
Completely agree. In my draft last weekend Peyton went 1.4 and in the 2nd round he ended up with Benson as his RB1. Not terrible by any stretch of the means but like you said, I also would have rather had a choice of LJ, Gore, Addai, Parker / Palmer,Brady combo than Manning and Benson. I picked at 1.9 and after 3 rounds ended up with Parker,Henry, and Brady.
The Man with the Plan
Footballguy
It's unrealistic to expect a rookie third wide receiver to have a major impact on the Colts offense (especially to the tune of 1000 yards and 10TDS like 2004 Stokley. If left tackle becomes a major problem for the Colts even with more dropbacks Manning won't be as effective because he'll be sacked and pressured a lot more. I don't think more attempts will make him better either. If they can't run the ball effectively they'll be unbalanced on offense and that's never a good thing. That leads to a poorer offense and more turnovers.
Quality of pass attempts is more important than quantity. In Peyton Manning's record breaking season he threw less than 500 times. More (when it comes to pass attempts) isn't always better and more likely it's worse.
PrinceofDarkness
Footballguy
Manning definitely has value in the late first round, but I defy you to run a mock where you pick him in the first round and are happy with your team. Sure, you are happy to have the best QB, but it seems like you are behind the curve at every other position.
jamil
Footballguy
i took manning at 10 a couple days ago and i'm not too upset with my team.
PrinceofDarkness
Footballguy
Out of curiousity, what is your team?I felt like I ended up with a RB2 and RB3 as my starters and a WR2 and WR3 as my starters there.jamil said:
jamil
Footballguy
just copied and pasted this from a different topic a few pages back...12 team IDP .5 PPR, .5 per completion and 6 for all TD's. been out of this league for awhile and i never played w/ completions before so with the 10th pick i ended up with1. P. Manning2. Ocho Cinco3. Javon Walker (really high on him this year)9. DJ Hackett14. Troy Williamson17. Reggie Williams4. Thomas Jones5. Adrian Peterson (min)6. Deuce8. Deangelo Williams12. Julius Jones11. Jason Witten7. Demeco10. Jason Taylor13. Kerry Rhodes16. Ray Lew18. Paul Pos15. Jason Hanson (!I@^%(!* autopick )besides a kicker in the 15th while i could've had some other picks i'm pretty happy about this team.
PrinceofDarkness
Footballguy
So the sacrifice you made was to the RB position. Of course, the .5 PPC (as 6 pts for all TDs) makes Manning a lot more valuable.Your team looks pretty good, but I personally wouldn't be comfortable with T. Jones as my #1 back.
Colin Dowling
Footballguy
I'm a little confused as to how 6 pt. per TD changes his relative value compared to the other QBs. Aren't they all getting 6 pts. per TD as well?
Giant Wooden Badger
the Beav
It doesn't change his value relative to other QBs. It changes QBs relative value to other positions.
PrinceofDarkness
Footballguy
Correct me if I'm wrong, but the principle of VBD is to compare relative values of all players, not just players in the same position. So it's easy to figure out how much more valuable Manning is to say Tom Brady as they are both scored the same way. The trick is how does Manning's value compared to a RB if all TDs are worth 6 points?
jamil
Footballguy
in regards to a 4pt per passing TD is what i'm guessing he meant.
jamil
Footballguy
yea i'm not either... but drafting from the 10th and with these rules and .5 PPR i wanted to try something different.
Polish Hammer
made of glass
My league is a 14 team league, 6 pt per passing TD, 1 pt per 25 passing yards. You can start a second QB as a flex. These things combine to drive up the value of QBs. I expect Manning to go no later than 6th this year. I'm in the 4 spot and if I don't trade down I'm taking him there.
Captain Hook
Footballguy
For the OP, I will try and add a little perspective from the Big money contests.
WCOFF = 4 pts for passing TDs
NFFC = 6 pts for passing TDs
The change may give QBs more total points, but doesn't change their relative ranking (except for V. Young in WCOFF).
Manning is normally drafted somewhere from the middle to end of the second round.
Every year there is some newbie who thinks they had a brainstorm and drafts him in the middle of the first round, and their team is dead money drafting.
WCOFF = 4 pts for passing TDs
NFFC = 6 pts for passing TDs
The change may give QBs more total points, but doesn't change their relative ranking (except for V. Young in WCOFF).
Manning is normally drafted somewhere from the middle to end of the second round.
Every year there is some newbie who thinks they had a brainstorm and drafts him in the middle of the first round, and their team is dead money drafting.
John Mamula
Moderator
it is no surprise that in the real big money leagues QBs are drafted later than your typical local or "shark" draft.
mosesberg
Footballguy
I was just looking at this in a money league Im drafting for Saturday.
I was thinking he should be the #1 pick with the point settings we got.
Passing Yards (10 yards per point)
Passing Touchdowns (6)
Interceptions (-2)
And looking at the stats last year Manning had 627pts. (next QB 58pts less)
and Tomlinson had 415pts. (next RB 100pts less)
I was thinking he should be the #1 pick with the point settings we got.
Passing Yards (10 yards per point)
Passing Touchdowns (6)
Interceptions (-2)
And looking at the stats last year Manning had 627pts. (next QB 58pts less)
and Tomlinson had 415pts. (next RB 100pts less)
John Mamula
Moderator
so why should he be #1?I was just looking at this in a money league Im drafting for Saturday.I was thinking he should be the #1 pick with the point settings we got.Passing Yards (10 yards per point)
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
I was just looking at this in a money league Im drafting for Saturday.
I was thinking he should be the #1 pick with the point settings we got.
Passing Yards (10 yards per point)
Passing Touchdowns (6)
Interceptions (-2)
And looking at the stats last year Manning had 627pts. (next QB 58pts less)
and Tomlinson had 415pts. (next RB 100pts less)
mosesberg
Footballguy
Sorry forgot to mention that after top 4 or 5 QBs the drop off in points is severe with the point per 10yards.I agree that Tomlinson would still be #1 even in this format but I think a case could be made for Manning any pick after.so why should he be #1?I was just looking at this in a money league Im drafting for Saturday.I was thinking he should be the #1 pick with the point settings we got.Passing Yards (10 yards per point)Passing Touchdowns (6)Interceptions (-2)And looking at the stats last year Manning had 627pts. (next QB 58pts less)and Tomlinson had 415pts. (next RB 100pts less)
The Reytheist
Footballguy
LT is projected by Dodds to get 338 points or so in standard scoring. SJax is 277.
Caddy (#20...worst starter method assuming start 2) is projected at 182.
LT's value is 156 and SJax's is 95.
Manning is projected at 608 points using the rules you posted. (Don't forget those INTs)
Jay Cutler (projected 12th) comes in at 461 points.
Peyton's value is 147.
PM comes in with a lower value than LT purely based on numbers and a worst starter baseline, but not by very much. I don't know that I advocated drafting PM as number 2 without knowing the drafting tendencies of the rest of the league and the rest of the scoring and roster requirements. Things like Flex positions would have an impact.
Caddy (#20...worst starter method assuming start 2) is projected at 182.
LT's value is 156 and SJax's is 95.
Manning is projected at 608 points using the rules you posted. (Don't forget those INTs)
Jay Cutler (projected 12th) comes in at 461 points.
Peyton's value is 147.
PM comes in with a lower value than LT purely based on numbers and a worst starter baseline, but not by very much. I don't know that I advocated drafting PM as number 2 without knowing the drafting tendencies of the rest of the league and the rest of the scoring and roster requirements. Things like Flex positions would have an impact.
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maddawg2020
Footballguy
i'm in a 10-team league. we use a standard FBG scoring system except we have 6 pts for TD passes. using the FBG projections he's ranked 3rd overall. in 10-team leagues he's being drafted from 1.5-1.9. I would say that anywhere from 1.7-1.10 would be a good value in 10-team leagues that give 6 pts for TD's
in 12-team league with 6 pts for TD passes then I would say he's still being drafted 1.5-1.9 but I'd wait until 1.12 or 2.01 until I drafted him.
in 12-team league with 6 pts for TD passes then I would say he's still being drafted 1.5-1.9 but I'd wait until 1.12 or 2.01 until I drafted him.
A little talk on here about it not being a "shark" move to take a guy like Manning early, that he "may" be worth it in the 3rd, that sort of thing. Usually, the thinking is that a top 12 QB can be had later on.
Top 12 could mean the lowest in a league, IF you guess right with your "sleeper." Manning is basically an automatic advantage every week. If you are picking in the middle to late first, you're looking at having the same team as everyone else after a few rounds (RB-RB-WR-BPA).
I have done pretty well this way, but there ARE other ways to build a solid team. Last year, I went WR-WR and made the playoffs. This year, I may not take an RB until round 4 or 5. I'm kind of looking forward to building a team a little differently.
BTW, I am presently looking at trading up to 6 (from 8) to be sure of getting Manning. 40 TDs sounds pretty good and is not totally out there.
Top 12 could mean the lowest in a league, IF you guess right with your "sleeper." Manning is basically an automatic advantage every week. If you are picking in the middle to late first, you're looking at having the same team as everyone else after a few rounds (RB-RB-WR-BPA).
I have done pretty well this way, but there ARE other ways to build a solid team. Last year, I went WR-WR and made the playoffs. This year, I may not take an RB until round 4 or 5. I'm kind of looking forward to building a team a little differently.
BTW, I am presently looking at trading up to 6 (from 8) to be sure of getting Manning. 40 TDs sounds pretty good and is not totally out there.
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