Where to draft Portis with the Duckett news? (1 Viewer)

[pizzatyme]

I drafted this past week and got Portis at 1.07 and was happy. Now, I'm not so sure.

Over the past 2 weeks we've gone from possibly considering him in a tier of 4 to a solid #4 to now maybe out of the first round?

Talk about risk/reward here.

I still look at his potential over 14 super games. I'm comfy factoring out the 1st 2 weeks for injury.

How are you approaching Portis this weekend if the news doesn't change substantially?

 

[gbill2004]

FBG now has Portis at the #28 RB.

 

[LHUCKS]

I have him ranked as the #13 RB.

I think you'll see him getting drafted all over the place given how vague the specifics on this injury are.

If you put a gun to my head I'd say his early ADP in expert drafts will be early second round...something like #16 overall.

 

[my man otis]

i'd love to say that i would't touch him at all but that wouldn't be great.

i'm thinking 3rd before i touch him. let someone else deal.

edit, though I do expect him to be drafted about where lhucks got him going, maybe a bit after depending on how big everyone's WR1 tier ends up.

 

[LHUCKS]

FBG now has Portis at the #28 RB.

that will be lower than most publicaions/websites

 

[abhall]

No way is he a 1st rounder anymore. TJ is such a great goalline back there's no way Saunders won't use him in those situations. I wouldn't draft him in the first 2 rounds. I say he's a 3rd rounder. I have him at #14 now, but I need to think about it some more.

 

[pizzatyme]

FBG now has Portis at the #28 RB.

I think that is too high of a devaluation. I wonder what makes them put him there. They must be considering him out for more than a couple of weeks.I'm not a big numbers cruncher, so, I'll leave that to others.I could see him going @ #16. I would love to get him as a RB2(considering that I've drank the kool-aid on him having a monster year).I guess I'd be happy with him, even if for only 14 games. I can't see Duckett vultering many more TD than Betts would have.Am I flawed in my thinking? I get by with my backup RBs for 2-3 weeks(assuming that is the total impact of his injury) and then I reap the rewards of his end of year performance.

 

[The_U]

FBG now has Portis at the #28 RB.

Ha! Ludicrous.

 

[packersfan]

I have him ranked as the the #13 RB. I think you'll see him getting drafted all over the place given how vague the specifics on this injury are. If you put a gun to my head I'd say his early ADP in expert drafts will be early second round...something like #16 overall.

This is pretty much where I have him now as well. I have him 12th among RBs and 15th overall. I agree his ADP will be everywhere going forward. The slightest good news will elevate him a bit; anything negative will cause him to drop. Probably the only thing that can be safely said is that he'll fall out of the first round in the vast majority of drafts (or should) between now and the start of the season.

 

[The_U]

I think it should be noted that David and Joe have Portis at #28, and while they are indeed the FBG, the site as a whole has simply bumped CP down to #10.

 

[Odogs]

In my slow draft that started today, I passed on him at 2.7 for McGahee. I couldn't do it and that was before I knew they got Duckett. The person at 2.8 hasn't made his pick yet so we'll have to wait and see how far he falls.

 

[The_U]

I think it should be noted that David and Joe have Portis at #28, and while they are indeed the FBG, the site as a whole has simply bumped CP down to #10.

David (or Joe)...any input on this drastic slide? Unless Gibbs has given you inside info, this is insane. Crazier than the Bush #10 ranking (since adjusted).

 

[hawaiiankrush]

I think this moves signals a real concern on the part of the Redskins because I believe that Betts could take care of the goal line rushes. So in my opinion, they are concerned about whether Portis can produce between the 20s because of his injury. Coaches and players always talk up how great they are rehabbing...yada, yada, yada. We see this all the time.

 

[rascal]

actually I think they have him ranked 23 in their projections (not ranking)...either way that is too low. I agree with Lhucks and that 13-15 is probably accurate.

 

[Keys Myaths]

mmmmm buy low.

 

[Gold Plated Nails]

Portis got drafted 9th tonight in my large money league, news of the trade was just breaking.

 

[The Jerk]

From another thread. I was surprised at the numbers when I did the research.

Given the acquisition of Duckett, I think Portis is now entering a potential Barber-like situation. Except that he's not nearly the threat receiving out of the backfield. However, 9 of Portis' 16 rushing TDs over the past two seasons have come from 4 yards or more. He also had 2 receiving TDs and 2 passing TDs in that span. So that's 13 TD's (2 of which are passes) of 4+ yards for Portis in 2004-05 to Tiki's 15 TD's of 4+ yards during the same seasons.

If you take away the 4 short TDs Portis scored last year, he still ends up top 10 at RB. Of course, can he be expected to match 2005 when he starts 2006 hobbling?

I see him somewhere between RB 8-15. I'll go with #12 if you want an exact number.

 

[KarmaPolice]

WTF is wrong with you people? This is Portis we are talking about. Because Duckett is in town he went from the #4-#5 Rb to a 3rd/4th rounder? I'll take what you guys are smokin'.

 

[pizzatyme]

WTF is wrong with you people? This is Portis we are talking about. Because Duckett is in town he went from the #4-#5 Rb to a 3rd/4th rounder? I'll take what you guys are smokin'.

My thoughts exactly. I just don't see how he can drop that far that fast. And if it because of an injury concern, then I would think he would be MUCH lower than a 2nd rounder.If we think he plays the equivalent of 14 games or so, then doesn't he still qualify to be considered as a RB2 at worst?Play your RB3 for 2 games or until Portis is ready to hopefully come back at full strength, and then you have yourself a top 4-6 RBs numbers for a 2nd round draft pick.

 

[Odogs]

WTF is wrong with you people? This is Portis we are talking about. Because Duckett is in town he went from the #4-#5 Rb to a 3rd/4th rounder? I'll take what you guys are smokin'.

The fact that they go out and get a RB after Portis gets hurt doesn't bother you at all?

 

[The Jerk]

WTF is wrong with you people? This is Portis we are talking about. Because Duckett is in town he went from the #4-#5 Rb to a 3rd/4th rounder? I'll take what you guys are smokin'.

Yes, it's Portis we're talking about. It's also a RB who is looking at getting very little if any goal line work and seeing his receptions and overall playing time reduced from their level the past two seasons (in which he only finished 10th and 6th as it is).I'm not for RB 28, but I can see RB 14 as legitimate GIVEN WHAT WE KNOW RIGHT NOW. If you're banking on this all blowing over come October, you could be right. Others are not likely wanting to spend their #1 pick on a situation with this much uncertainty.

 

[Da Guru]

Do you have a ten foot pole??

 

[Nigel Tufnel]

This ####### sucks.

 

[Nigel Tufnel]

This ####### sucks.

 

[The Jerk]

WTF is wrong with you people? This is Portis we are talking about. Because Duckett is in town he went from the #4-#5 Rb to a 3rd/4th rounder? I'll take what you guys are smokin'.

My thoughts exactly. I just don't see how he can drop that far that fast. And if it because of an injury concern, then I would think he would be MUCH lower than a 2nd rounder.If we think he plays the equivalent of 14 games or so, then doesn't he still qualify to be considered as a RB2 at worst?Play your RB3 for 2 games or until Portis is ready to hopefully come back at full strength, and then you have yourself a top 4-6 RBs numbers for a 2nd round draft pick.

All true -- really, I mean it.However, it's also true that he could be fighting this injury all season long, in which case you get a rehash of Kevin Jones from 2005 for your 2006 2nd round pick. The uncertainty matters to most people.

 

[KarmaPolice]

WTF is wrong with you people? This is Portis we are talking about. Because Duckett is in town he went from the #4-#5 Rb to a 3rd/4th rounder? I'll take what you guys are smokin'.

The fact that they go out and get a RB after Portis gets hurt doesn't bother you at all?

MAYBE if it wasn't Duckett.

 

[pizzatyme]

WTF is wrong with you people? This is Portis we are talking about. Because Duckett is in town he went from the #4-#5 Rb to a 3rd/4th rounder? I'll take what you guys are smokin'.

My thoughts exactly. I just don't see how he can drop that far that fast. And if it because of an injury concern, then I would think he would be MUCH lower than a 2nd rounder.If we think he plays the equivalent of 14 games or so, then doesn't he still qualify to be considered as a RB2 at worst?Play your RB3 for 2 games or until Portis is ready to hopefully come back at full strength, and then you have yourself a top 4-6 RBs numbers for a 2nd round draft pick.

All true -- really, I mean it.However, it's also true that he could be fighting this injury all season long, in which case you get a rehash of Kevin Jones from 2005 for your 2006 2nd round pick. The uncertainty matters to most people.

Then I guess my thoughts there are that if the uncertainty is killing you, nab him in the second and handcuff his likely replacement in the 5th or 6th or possible later. The big question is who is his likely replacement? I'd have to say Duckett, unless they shut Portis down without playing a down. I seem to remember a similar situation last season regarding Priest/LJ. The big question was about "wasting" a 5th to get LJ as the handcuff to Priest. If you can lock up the Skins rushing attach with a second and a 5th, I'm good with that.I can't get away from thinking of getting Portis with his upside in the second round!Good discussion BTW.

 

[packersfan]

I'm a huge Portis fan but it's impossible in my opinion to view this trade in any positive light for him. Even if it's more of a reflection on Betts than Portis (which I certainly consider possible since I don't think Betts is a special RB by any means) the Redskins are still bringing in a top-flight goal-line RB and that will impact Portis' production. I can't see ranking Portis any higher than 12th or so right now and quite frankly he's only that high on my rankings because I view this year as being extremely weak at the RB position. If there was better depth I'd be lowering him even further but right now I still view him as a solid, though risky, RB2 option.

 

[NorvilleBarnes]

Essentially, this takes Portis off the draft board for me. It doesn't matter if I have him at 28 or 14. In a large league someone will have him rated much higher (or willing to take more risk) than me.

 

[The Jerk]

WTF is wrong with you people? This is Portis we are talking about. Because Duckett is in town he went from the #4-#5 Rb to a 3rd/4th rounder? I'll take what you guys are smokin'.

My thoughts exactly. I just don't see how he can drop that far that fast. And if it because of an injury concern, then I would think he would be MUCH lower than a 2nd rounder.If we think he plays the equivalent of 14 games or so, then doesn't he still qualify to be considered as a RB2 at worst?Play your RB3 for 2 games or until Portis is ready to hopefully come back at full strength, and then you have yourself a top 4-6 RBs numbers for a 2nd round draft pick.

All true -- really, I mean it.However, it's also true that he could be fighting this injury all season long, in which case you get a rehash of Kevin Jones from 2005 for your 2006 2nd round pick. The uncertainty matters to most people.

Then I guess my thoughts there are that if the uncertainty is killing you, nab him in the second and handcuff his likely replacement in the 5th or 6th or possible later. The big question is who is his likely replacement? I'd have to say Duckett, unless they shut Portis down without playing a down. I seem to remember a similar situation last season regarding Priest/LJ. The big question was about "wasting" a 5th to get LJ as the handcuff to Priest. If you can lock up the Skins rushing attach with a second and a 5th, I'm good with that.I can't get away from thinking of getting Portis with his upside in the second round!Good discussion BTW.

Agreed. Good discussion.I don't see the KC '05/Wash '06 situation to be as similar as you think, but I see your point. If you read my earlier post, then you know I see more potential parallels to the NYG than KC. Portis is your Barber and either Betts or now Duckett (or both) can be Brandon Jacobs.In addition, Priest was coming off an injury from the previous season but was fully healthy (not equivalent to Portis' shoulder injury happening in August) and KC was not bringing in RBs in late August.Finally, don't forget that there was no apparent relationship between the injury that ended Holmes' 2005 season and his "pre-existing conditions" -- it was somewhat of a fluke. It very easily could have not happened, or happened in Week 14. In either case, we're thinking of this situation very differently if Holmes avoids that hit.

 

[Odogs]

WTF is wrong with you people? This is Portis we are talking about. Because Duckett is in town he went from the #4-#5 Rb to a 3rd/4th rounder? I'll take what you guys are smokin'.

The fact that they go out and get a RB after Portis gets hurt doesn't bother you at all?

MAYBE if it wasn't Duckett.

I think it should concern you more than you think, because without even starting very many games he averages about eight TD's a year. So, even if Portis plays, it looks like their plan will be to limit his short yardage and goal line carries and give them to Duckett.

 

[Da Guru]

Draft Portis where you would have drafted Warrick Dunn last year. Plain and simple.

 

[laxiepoo]

Essentially, this takes Portis off the draft board for me. It doesn't matter if I have him at 28 or 14. In a large league someone will have him rated much higher (or willing to take more risk) than me.

I really see Portis' injury as a nagging, full-season of question marks injury. One of those Day-to-Day on the injury reports every week. Let some other owner deal with that mess.

Bringing Duckett in either replaces Portis or Betts for at least part of the season, and just increases the depth of the WAS running game no matter who the RB1 is.

I'm staying completely clear of Portis in all drafts this year.

 

[radballs]

Draft Portis where you would have drafted Warrick Dunn last year. Plain and simple.

Why, Dunn was healthy last year?

 

[ATC1]

I'm a huge Portis fan but it's impossible in my opinion to view this trade in any positive light for him. Even if it's more of a reflection on Betts than Portis (which I certainly consider possible since I don't think Betts is a special RB by any means) the Redskins are still bringing in a top-flight goal-line RB and that will impact Portis' production. I can't see ranking Portis any higher than 12th or so right now and quite frankly he's only that high on my rankings because I view this year as being extremely weak at the RB position. If there was better depth I'd be lowering him even further but right now I still view him as a solid, though risky, RB2 option.

A positive spin would be as a security measure. Duckett is a very productive back for a cheap price. Washington is pleagued in the back feild with injuries. The team lost Carter for the year (tore up his knee), L. Betts had hamstring issues (maybe he is not doing to well in rehab), Portis has the shoulder problem. Portis will take it slow coming back and will work his way back to more and more carries. I would love to get him in the 2nd round for value. Experience with sublux shoulders is rehab takes a few weeks and the player is back to practice. Portis' surgeon said the MRI looked good, and there was no damage to the surrounding tissue. He said there is nothing to suggest that he can not be ready for week 1. Portis has full range of motion in his shoulder which is a great sign. Remember C. Benson had the same exact injury done to him a week before Portis, and no one is saying he won't be ready to start. (Injurywise at least).

 

[NoFBinLA]

while I definitely drop him down 2-3 pegs (at least) I won't kill him yet for the following reasons:

1) Let's see more on his rehab

2) lets see what Duckett does in the next game

3) I'm overly cautious and don't tend to go off right after thes things

4) I'm not drafting right now and have the luxury of waiting and seeing....

If I was drafting right now.... depends on who was going where, but Duckett does concern me....

On the other hand, love jerious Norwood late in a draft..... (esp. Dynasty)

Be interestd to hear what happens with everyone drafting this weekend.....

 

[JAM]

Joe Gibbs is a RB addict, he simply can not get enough of them. He always has been, always will be.

Duckett is reinsurance for the primary insurance (Betts), for this year and next. Ladell could get injured 2006, and may be gone as a FA in 2007.

Portis is still the main man, that has not changed, the only thing that has changed the past 6 months is the injury. Betts or whomever has always been a threat to vulture TDs. The only issue for me is how much time, if any, will Portis miss. I'm Still taking Clinton top 10, probably 6-7, certainly ahead of Lamont Jordan et al,... and planning accordingly.

 

[Noahs Troopers]

MCGAHEE >>>>>>>>>> PORTIS

Have a nice day.

 

[Da Guru]

Joe Gibbs is a RB addict, he simply can not get enough of them. He always has been, always will be.Duckett is reinsurance for the primary insurance (Betts), for this year and next. Ladell could get injured 2006, and may be gone as a FA in 2007.Portis is still the main man, that has not changed, the only thing that has changed the past 6 months is the injury. Betts or whomever has always been a threat to vulture TDs. The only issue for me is how much time, if any, will Portis miss. I'm Still taking Clinton top 10, probably 6-7, certainly ahead of Lamont Jordan et al,... and planning accordingly.

With all due respect, the only way Clint sees the endzone this year is if he scores from 20 yards out. Top 10..no way!

 

[todd2006]

Were people scared of Tony Richardson when Priest Holmes was running the ball for KC?

Buy low... Be happy you get Portis. I don't think anyone is even close with their guesses for his production this season. He'll be huge.

 

[Noahs Troopers]

Were people scared of Tony Richardson when Priest Holmes was running the ball for KC?Buy low... Be happy you get Portis. I don't think anyone is even close with their guesses for his production this season. He'll be huge.

Answer honestly, are you either of the following?1. Portis owner2. Redskins fanYou're one of these two, fess up to which.

 

[joffer]

With all due respect, the only way Clint sees the endzone this year is if he scores from 20 yards out.

 

[thecardiackid]

I'm a huge Portis fan but it's impossible in my opinion to view this trade in any positive light for him. Even if it's more of a reflection on Betts than Portis (which I certainly consider possible since I don't think Betts is a special RB by any means) the Redskins are still bringing in a top-flight goal-line RB and that will impact Portis' production. I can't see ranking Portis any higher than 12th or so right now and quite frankly he's only that high on my rankings because I view this year as being extremely weak at the RB position. If there was better depth I'd be lowering him even further but right now I still view him as a solid, though risky, RB2 option.

A positive spin would be as a security measure. Duckett is a very productive back for a cheap price. Washington is pleagued in the back feild with injuries. The team lost Carter for the year (tore up his knee), L. Betts had hamstring issues (maybe he is not doing to well in rehab), Portis has the shoulder problem. Portis will take it slow coming back and will work his way back to more and more carries. I would love to get him in the 2nd round for value. Experience with sublux shoulders is rehab takes a few weeks and the player is back to practice. Portis' surgeon said the MRI looked good, and there was no damage to the surrounding tissue. He said there is nothing to suggest that he can not be ready for week 1. Portis has full range of motion in his shoulder which is a great sign. Remember C. Benson had the same exact injury done to him a week before Portis, and no one is saying he won't be ready to start. (Injurywise at least).

Maybe I'm just another optimistic CP owner (last weekend's drafts), but I'll have a glass of that koolaid. While I agree TJ *or Betts as planned* will vulture some GL work, I think the skins are hedging their bets right now, and dishing out the draft pick(s) for some security. NO SURGURY from the "expert" and he's already running w/ the sling off now. w/ a couple weeks before the season to get right. My main concern is rushing him back and having more problems w/ the shoulder sooner than later. I'd rather him sit a game or two, then back to biz as usual

Yea, I might have been a little overly optimistic w/ the 8th slot reach in round 1, but aside from another goal line threat (remember Betts was already slated for some duty to keep CP "fresher") I'm not really sweating this as much as some of the "sky is falling" guys here tonight. SJax has heel tendonitis, and no one is worried there.

Maybe not exactly what I was hoping for w/ my 1st rounder (in the pre-season), but this still needs to play itself out, and I'm not reaching for the bottle yet. My *issue* is that while I missed out on Betts (7th before I was going to take in in the 8th), I did get Duckett in the 10th of a 14 teamer. Obviously hoping for a bye week filler and vulture score(s) in the ATL. Now I'm stuck w/ vulturing my own RB - and no flex option to hedge the bet.

I guess I'm better positioned IF CP gets shelved for a long stretch (assuming re-injury and TJ takes over the main role now), but this could very well be pointless if Portis gets healthy, plays 14 or so games and sees 20ish touches a game - even if he gets a few TDs vultured.

Drafting now, I'd agree he drops due to the increased risk, but not to R3/4. No way he makes it out of the 2nd - even w/ these new developments.

Here's to the "shoulder expert" and his prognosis...

 

[pizzatyme]

Joe Gibbs is a RB addict, he simply can not get enough of them. He always has been, always will be.Duckett is reinsurance for the primary insurance (Betts), for this year and next. Ladell could get injured 2006, and may be gone as a FA in 2007.Portis is still the main man, that has not changed, the only thing that has changed the past 6 months is the injury. Betts or whomever has always been a threat to vulture TDs. The only issue for me is how much time, if any, will Portis miss. I'm Still taking Clinton top 10, probably 6-7, certainly ahead of Lamont Jordan et al,... and planning accordingly.

With all due respect, the only way Clint sees the endzone this year is if he scores from 20 yards out. Top 10..no way!

Come on DG, you can't really see it this way, can you? Please explain your rationale.

 

[fornov]

Does either Joe Gibbs or Al Saunders have a history of using a goal line vulture RB? To my knowledge, they do not, but maybe someone else can think of an example.

Acquiring Duckett, vulture that he was in Atl, does not necessarily mean Portis will never see the field when the Redskins get inside the 10.

I agree with knocking Portis down a few pegs, probably landing in the 8-10 range, but not 15, and certainly not 23. Barber, Jackson, Brown, and R Johnson now rank ahead of him IMO, and possibly Williams and McGahee. All others have just as much uncertainty about their own situations.

 

[thecardiackid]

Were people scared of Tony Richardson when Priest Holmes was running the ball for KC?Buy low... Be happy you get Portis. I don't think anyone is even close with their guesses for his production this season. He'll be huge.

Answer honestly, are you either of the following?1. Portis owner2. Redskins fanYou're one of these two, fess up to which.

MCGAHEE >>>>>>>>>> PORTIS Have a nice day.

And you're a Willis or BUF fan? Oh wait, I see the avitar now...

 

[Shiver44]

Portis' value:



I wouldn't touch him.

 

[Noodlefish]

Took him 9th in a money league last night. Seemed fair, given injury risk, etc.

Didn't see the Duckett trade news until this morning. Ne'er mind. It's only money...

 

[Michael Brown]

WTF is wrong with you people? This is Portis we are talking about. Because Duckett is in town he went from the #4-#5 Rb to a 3rd/4th rounder? I'll take what you guys are smokin'.

The fact that they go out and get a RB after Portis gets hurt doesn't bother you at all?

MAYBE if it wasn't Duckett.

The fact that it's Duckett is what scares me the MOST.As if it wasn't worrisome enough that Portis was possibly losing short yardage carries, now they've got a specialist to fill that very role. Before the shoulder injury, I had CP scoring 12 TD on the ground. I knocked it to 9 after he got hurt, and 7 with news of the Duckett trade. My logic is, why would Gibbs risk the health of the franchise back when he's got multiple options elsewhere?

 

[metoo]

There was a guy who posted a few days ago that someone claiming to be Portis was in his league. The guy claiming to be "Portis", also said Portis would not be the goal line back this year.