Which current backup RBs will be starters in the future? (2 Viewers)

[EBF]

Don't want to drag this discussion too far off topic, but did want to offer one last little nugget about Mendenhall. Here is a list of all active NFL RBs who have at least three seasons of 200+ carries:

Steven Jackson

Willis McGahee

Frank Gore

Adrian Peterson

Michael Turner

Cedric Benson

Maurice Jones-Drew

Chris Johnson

Marshawn Lynch

Matt Forte

Ray Rice

Ronnie Brown

Brandon Jacobs

Arian Foster

Rashard Mendenhall

LeSean McCoy

Pretty exclusive company. There are 1-2 names on this list that don't do much for me, but by and large it reads like a "who's who" of elite RBs from the past decade. It shows the kind of talent you need if you're going to last as a long term starter in the NFL. Competition for places is extreme. You'll see some guys win starting jobs by default if they were high draft picks and/or if they happened to be in the right place at the right time, but if you are a weak link then you will be found out sooner rather than later, and will generally be replaced within 1-2 years.

The fact that Mendenhall was able to last 3 years as a starter on a playoff team and only lost his job after a serious knee injury pokes some holes in the idea that he's just this mediocre, backup caliber talent. To look at his success as a product of opportunity is to miss a big part of the equation, which is that (in the long run) talent is the reason why players receive opportunities. If he wasn't very good, he would've been replaced long before now. Pittsburgh didn't draft a back in the top 5 rounds at any point during his tenure. They didn't sign any real free agent competition. All of those things indicate a team that felt fine about its RB situation.

Blount's career trajectory more closesly resembles someone like Slaton or Hillis. One good year out nowhere. Reduced effectiveness and workload the following year. Replaced soon thereafter. Irrelevant from that point forward.

 

[werdnoynek]

Don't want to drag this discussion too far off topic, but did want to offer one last little nugget about Mendenhall. Here is a list of all active NFL RBs who have at least three seasons of 200+ carries:Steven JacksonWillis McGaheeFrank GoreAdrian PetersonMichael TurnerCedric BensonMaurice Jones-DrewChris JohnsonMarshawn LynchMatt ForteRay RiceRonnie BrownBrandon JacobsArian FosterRashard MendenhallLeSean McCoyPretty exclusive company. There are 1-2 names on this list that don't do much for me, but by and large it reads like a "who's who" of elite RBs from the past decade. It shows the kind of talent you need if you're going to last as a long term starter in the NFL. Competition for places is extreme. You'll see some guys win starting jobs by default if they were high draft picks and/or if they happened to be in the right place at the right time, but if you are a weak link then you will be found out sooner rather than later, and will generally be replaced within 1-2 years. The fact that Mendenhall was able to last 3 years as a starter on a playoff team and only lost his job after a serious knee injury pokes some holes in the idea that he's just this mediocre, backup caliber talent. Pittsburgh didn't draft a back in the top 5 rounds at any point during his tenure. They didn't sign any real free agent competition. All of those things indicate a team that felt fine about its RB situation. Blount's career trajectory more closesly resembles someone like Slaton or Hillis. One good year out nowhere. Reduced effectiveness and workload the following year. Replaced soon thereafter. Irrelevant from that point forward.

thank you for the clarity!! great post.

 

[Shanahanigans]

Blount's career trajectory more closesly resembles someone like Slaton or Hillis. One good year out nowhere. Reduced effectiveness and workload the following year. Replaced soon thereafter. Irrelevant from that point forward.

I agree with this. Especially in PPR leagues, Blount is going to be irrelevant going into the future. I also agree that if there is a TB RB to target, it is Michael Smith. You can't teach speed, and they weren't the only team that was high on him. Most likely he's on your waiver wire, so if you have deep rosters or no depth, he is certainly a backup to think about adding.

 

[Shanahanigans]

As a Denver homer, one thing I can comment on is that there is little support of faith in Ronnie Hillman, at least from the people I listen to and talk to. Lots of fans are pushing for Eddie Lacy in the first round. Not that this is of particular note, but it does give you an idea of how things are being perceived here in Denver.

 

[Shutout]

Don't want to drag this discussion too far off topic, but did want to offer one last little nugget about Mendenhall. Here is a list of all active NFL RBs who have at least three seasons of 200+ carries:

Steven Jackson

Willis McGahee

Frank Gore

Adrian Peterson

Michael Turner

Cedric Benson

Maurice Jones-Drew

Chris Johnson

Marshawn Lynch

Matt Forte

Ray Rice

Ronnie Brown

Brandon Jacobs

Arian Foster

Rashard Mendenhall

LeSean McCoy

Pretty exclusive company. There are 1-2 names on this list that don't do much for me, but by and large it reads like a "who's who" of elite RBs from the past decade. It shows the kind of talent you need if you're going to last as a long term starter in the NFL. Competition for places is extreme. You'll see some guys win starting jobs by default if they were high draft picks and/or if they happened to be in the right place at the right time, but if you are a weak link then you will be found out sooner rather than later, and will generally be replaced within 1-2 years.

The fact that Mendenhall was able to last 3 years as a starter on a playoff team and only lost his job after a serious knee injury pokes some holes in the idea that he's just this mediocre, backup caliber talent. To look at his success as a product of opportunity is to miss a big part of the equation, which is that (in the long run) talent is the reason why players receive opportunities. If he wasn't very good, he would've been replaced long before now. Pittsburgh didn't draft a back in the top 5 rounds at any point during his tenure. They didn't sign any real free agent competition. All of those things indicate a team that felt fine about its RB situation.

Blount's career trajectory more closesly resembles someone like Slaton or Hillis. One good year out nowhere. Reduced effectiveness and workload the following year. Replaced soon thereafter. Irrelevant from that point forward.

Lots of good info here but I'm gonna play devil's advocate here for a sec: since the steelers did seem to have so much faith in him and the did pass on drafting any significant RBs and since they don't have a clear top RB on their team right now, what does that TRULY say about them letting him go? Does it perhaps say that they know he isn't what he once was when they showed so much confidence in him?

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

what does that TRULY say about them letting him go?

I think it says Mike Tomlin thinks Mendenhall is a giant pain in the ###, and someone he doesn't want to work with.Thought Bruce Arians's comments yesterday about Mendenhall being a bit of a different cat and having to handle him differently were interesting.

 

[EBF]

Don't want to drag this discussion too far off topic, but did want to offer one last little nugget about Mendenhall. Here is a list of all active NFL RBs who have at least three seasons of 200+ carries:

Steven Jackson

Willis McGahee

Frank Gore

Adrian Peterson

Michael Turner

Cedric Benson

Maurice Jones-Drew

Chris Johnson

Marshawn Lynch

Matt Forte

Ray Rice

Ronnie Brown

Brandon Jacobs

Arian Foster

Rashard Mendenhall

LeSean McCoy

Pretty exclusive company. There are 1-2 names on this list that don't do much for me, but by and large it reads like a "who's who" of elite RBs from the past decade. It shows the kind of talent you need if you're going to last as a long term starter in the NFL. Competition for places is extreme. You'll see some guys win starting jobs by default if they were high draft picks and/or if they happened to be in the right place at the right time, but if you are a weak link then you will be found out sooner rather than later, and will generally be replaced within 1-2 years.

The fact that Mendenhall was able to last 3 years as a starter on a playoff team and only lost his job after a serious knee injury pokes some holes in the idea that he's just this mediocre, backup caliber talent. To look at his success as a product of opportunity is to miss a big part of the equation, which is that (in the long run) talent is the reason why players receive opportunities. If he wasn't very good, he would've been replaced long before now. Pittsburgh didn't draft a back in the top 5 rounds at any point during his tenure. They didn't sign any real free agent competition. All of those things indicate a team that felt fine about its RB situation.

Blount's career trajectory more closesly resembles someone like Slaton or Hillis. One good year out nowhere. Reduced effectiveness and workload the following year. Replaced soon thereafter. Irrelevant from that point forward.

Lots of good info here but I'm gonna play devil's advocate here for a sec: since the steelers did seem to have so much faith in him and the did pass on drafting any significant RBs and since they don't have a clear top RB on their team right now, what does that TRULY say about them letting him go? Does it perhaps say that they know he isn't what he once was when they showed so much confidence in him?

Could be any number of things. One possibility is that they think he's done. Another is that last year's fiasco caused a permanent schism with management. You can understand the frustration on both ends. Mendenhall was in a contract year and was probably pissed that he didn't get a real chance to repair his stock. He might even see it as Pittsburgh trying to keep his value down intentionally. From Pitt's standpoint, can you bring a guy back on a new deal after he's been insubordinate? Mendenhall did not handle his benching very gracefully. Oh, and then there's the injury. Do you pay a guy the year after a knee injury when he hasn't proven that he's back yet? Is he worth the money? Even if you like him and want him back, economics might dictate that you let him walk. Dwyer's 2013 salary will be less than even the modest amount that Mendenhall will be paid by Arizona. Bear in mind that this is the same franchise that let Santonio Holmes, Mike Wallace, and Plaxico Burress walk long before those guys were finished. Pitt gives Ben a big salary and a long leash, but in general they seem reluctant to splash the cash on all but the most essential veterans and are pretty swift to cut ties with players who don't walk the line. RB is not an essential position in the NFL. Add attitude and durability issues into the equation, and you can start to see why they'd let him go without too much fuss. It was time to move on.

Regardless of what happens in the future, the idea that he only held the starting role for 3 years because Pitt had no other options doesn't jive with the realities of the NFL. It's a very competitive league. If you're bad at your job, you will not last. Every draft class brings a slew of potential new challengers. Every free agency period brings the chance to reinforce. If your team is desperate enough, they can even make a trade to replace you. What does all of this mean? If you're a middling player, you'll almost certainly be replaced within two years. If you manage to keep a job for longer than that, you're probably pretty good.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

Rashad Jennings says he's joining the Raiders. If there is ever a backup situation to keep tabs on it's in Oakland behind McFadden.

ETA: Now confirmed by the Raiders.