Which current backup RBs will be starters in the future? (1 Viewer)

[EBF]

Anyone who plays in deep leagues that require multiple starting RBs knows how difficult it can be to acquire a starter. If you want an established player, you usually have to pay a steep price. Sometimes the best alternative is to find a cheaper option before his value explodes.

With that in mind, who do you think are some of the current backup RBs who have the talent to start down the line?

I came up with the following list as a starting point. I included a few guys who could possibly be called starters already and excluded a few of the pricey possible starters/RBBC guys like David Wilson, Rashard Mendenhall, and Ryan Williams.

LeGarrette Blount, TB

Brandon Bolden, NE

Bryce Brown, PHI

Toby Gerhart, MIN

Mike Goodson, NYJ

Roy Helu, WAS

Ronnie Hillman, DEN

Kendall Hunter, SF

Mark Ingram, NO

Chris Ivory, NO

LaMichael James, SF

Joe McKnight, NYJ

Isaiah Pead, STL

Bernard Pierce, BAL

Bilal Powell, NYJ

Daryl Richardson, STL

Jacquizz Rodgers, ATL

Ben Tate, HOU

Robert Turbin, SEA

Shane Vereen, NE

My short list would probably be:

Brandon Bolden, NE - A half step slow, but otherwise seems to have everything needed to be a starting power back. I like him more than Vereen.

Bryce Brown, PHI - Seems to have a lot of natural talent. Showed flashes of brilliance last year. Enough to pump up his price tag a lot.

Toby Gerhart, MIN - Has a good pedigree, a decent NFL track record, and is available for cheap. Free agent after this season.

Kendall Hunter, SF - A bit small, but heavy for his height. Was consistently effective before his injury. Not sure he's a featured back though.

Mark Ingram, NO - Looks like a pedestrian talent relative to the other players in the league. I still might take a chance on him if his value drops low enough.

Bernard Pierce, BAL - Fairly high pick and showed a lot of talent as a rookie, eating into Rice's workload. Some durability red flags.

Ben Tate, HOU - When he's been healthy, he has shown a lot of potential. Unfortunately he hasn't been healthy very often.

Robert Turbin, SEA - Shouldn't cost a fortune and seems like a guy who would have a chance to excel if given an opportunity for PT.

Thoughts?

Who are the best players on this list?

Who offers the most value per cost?

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Pierce/Tate/Turbin/Vereen/Gerhart are probably the most talented and able to put up at least RB2 numbers. But people aren't blind with these guys, so it might not be cost-effective to acquire them. Gerhart would be the exception except that he's most likely owned by the AP owner already.

 

[EBF]

Pierce/Tate/Turbin/Vereen/Gerhart are probably the most talented and able to put up at least RB2 numbers. But people aren't blind with these guys, so it might not be cost-effective to acquire them. Gerhart would be the exception except that he's most likely owned by the AP owner already.

Mostly agree, except I'd add Bryce Brown to that list and take out Vereen. Vereen has been pretty quiet after two years in the league. It seems like nobody was high on him until he had that one great playoff game. I don't think one good game on a national stage makes up for two years of anonymity. He has 77 carries on his career and not a single run of 20+ yards. He has some value as a pass catcher, but I think he's the third best rusher on his own team.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Pierce/Tate/Turbin/Vereen/Gerhart are probably the most talented and able to put up at least RB2 numbers. But people aren't blind with these guys, so it might not be cost-effective to acquire them. Gerhart would be the exception except that he's most likely owned by the AP owner already.

Mostly agree, except I'd add Bryce Brown to that list and take out Vereen. Vereen has been pretty quiet after two years in the league. It seems like nobody was high on him until he had that one great playoff game. I don't think one good game on a national stage makes up for two years of anonymity. He has 77 carries on his career and not a single run of 20+ yards. He has some value as a pass catcher, but I think he's the third best rusher on his own team.

I agree about Vereen's pure rushing ability in comparison to Bolden and Ridley, I just think that in PPR leagues his role as the passing down back, and one who can be flexed out, could be very, very valuable.I somehow forgot about Brown on my list, but he's not going to be cost-effective to acquire either most likely.

 

[EBF]

I somehow forgot about Brown on my list, but he's not going to be cost-effective to acquire either most likely.

That's the trick with all unknown quantities. It applies to higher profile options like Justin Blackmon, Michael Floyd, David Wilson, and Josh Gordon. These players have the upside to become worth more than what they are now, but the downside to punish you if you pay a big price to get them and they don't pan out. You'll have to pay a decent price to land someone like Pierce, Brown, Tate, or Turbin. Maybe 2-3 years from now they'll be worth exponentially more than the current cost though. The challenge is determining which of these are Jamaal Charles/Michael Turner/Darren Sproles and which are Pierre Thomas/Ladell Betts/Felix Jones.

 

[Andrew74]

I targeted Brown in WW last year and Pierce in a trade this offseason. I also have Vereen (drafted) and D Richardson (FA) on roster. I'd say I'm looking for Pierce and Brown as most likely future starters.

 

[voiceofunreason]

I'm curious what you think of Ivory. I've always liked the guys talent but he never stays healthy long enough to win the job. Any chance Ingram finally loses the job to him?

 

[petenice15]

I'm curious what you think of Ivory. I've always liked the guys talent but he never stays healthy long enough to win the job. Any chance Ingram finally loses the job to him?

Ivory can't stay healthy as a 4th string RB. Ingram started showing some potential last year. I think this is the year it all clicks for him.

 

[jmo87usc]

Anyone who plays in deep leagues that require multiple starting RBs knows how difficult it can be to acquire a starter. If you want an established player, you usually have to pay a steep price. Sometimes the best alternative is to find a cheaper option before his value explodes. With that in mind, who do you think are some of the current backup RBs who have the talent to start down the line? I came up with the following list as a starting point. I included a few guys who could possibly be called starters already and excluded a few of the pricey possible starters/RBBC guys like David Wilson, Rashard Mendenhall, and Ryan Williams. LeGarrette Blount, TBBrandon Bolden, NEBryce Brown, PHI Toby Gerhart, MIN Mike Goodson, NYJ Roy Helu, WASRonnie Hillman, DEN Kendall Hunter, SFMark Ingram, NOChris Ivory, NOLaMichael James, SF Joe McKnight, NYJ Isaiah Pead, STLBernard Pierce, BALBilal Powell, NYJ Daryl Richardson, STL Jacquizz Rodgers, ATL Ben Tate, HOURobert Turbin, SEA Shane Vereen, NE My short list would probably be:Brandon Bolden, NE - A half step slow, but otherwise seems to have everything needed to be a starting power back. I like him more than Vereen. Bryce Brown, PHI - Seems to have a lot of natural talent. Showed flashes of brilliance last year. Enough to pump up his price tag a lot.Toby Gerhart, MIN - Has a good pedigree, a decent NFL track record, and is available for cheap. Free agent after this season. Kendall Hunter, SF - A bit small, but heavy for his height. Was consistently effective before his injury. Not sure he's a featured back though. Mark Ingram, NO - Looks like a pedestrian talent relative to the other players in the league. I still might take a chance on him if his value drops low enough. Bernard Pierce, BAL - Fairly high pick and showed a lot of talent as a rookie, eating into Rice's workload. Some durability red flags.Ben Tate, HOU - When he's been healthy, he has shown a lot of potential. Unfortunately he hasn't been healthy very often.Robert Turbin, SEA - Shouldn't cost a fortune and seems like a guy who would have a chance to excel if given an opportunity for PT. Thoughts? Who are the best players on this list?Who offers the most value per cost?

Good topic and good list here. I ended up with a bunch of these guys on my team last year for this very reason. They were cheap and I figured I would just see which ones stick.I would add Dwyer, Dujuan Harris and Rashad Jennings to the list. I know harris is available in my league's upcoming rookie draft. Not sure about the majority of other leagues. I think Dwyer has a shot at the starting role in Pitt and can be had pretty cheap. Jennings flopped last year when he had the starting job, but I think that had to do with injury somewhat so I'm willing to give him a shot and see if he lands on a team. May not happen til mid season so you'll need patience with him.As far as best value on the list for the price, I would say guys like Mcknight, Bolden, and Dwyer are the only ones that can be had really cheap. All the other guys are getting enough hype right now that their owners want projected market value. I'm not willing to pay that on a hunch.

 

[SieteCinco]

In a rough draft order, I'd go with:

-Bryce Brown

-Kendall Hunter

-Shane Vereen

-Ben Tate

-Mark Ingram

-Robert Turbin

-Felix Jones

-Cedric Peerman

-Bernard Pierce

-LeGarrette Blount

-Montario Hardesty

-Brown, Hunter, Tate, Turbin, and pierce are all in the same category for me, but I'd have them ranked in this order after factoring in my opinion on their talent levels and the amount of time before they will have a chance to start. I can see some people preferring Bernard Pierce to Robert Turbin, but Rice has been one of the most durable running backs in recent years, and doesn't come with the off field concerns of a player like Marshawn Lynch.

-Felix Jones is still young, and its possible a lot of his troubles were due to him never playing at 100%. Maybe a change in scenery/staying healthy helps.

-Blount/Hardesty could benefit from a trade or moving on to a new team in free agency. Both have shown flashes of talent (Blount more so than Hardesty) but they're currently stuck behind the two youngest "elite" backs. TB is reportedly shopping Blount, and Hardesty will hit the free agency market next offseason.

 

[menobrown]

The following backs are all backs I view as somewhat talented and posses a 3 down back skill set. One thing I look at is trying my best to estimate how long before they might get a chance to be featured or at least usable from a fantasy perspective. Career ending injuries to guys over them on their depth charts are not something I account for as I just can't predict that.

Turbin- With Lynch's back and Seattle's penchant for blowing teams out at home could offer spot start appeal. Have seem him compared to a faster Marion Barber and sort of agree with that. Would love him in a feature role but contractually he and Lynch are bound for multiple years and Lynch figures to still have a few good years in him so the wait could be long. I analyze contracts to see when a team might part with a guy and Lynch's contract is $7mill next season, drops to $5mill in 2014 and takes a slight increase in 2015 to $5.5 million with per game incentives that could add $2million more. In conclusion if he's current play keeps up he'll never be a salary cap casualty or asked to take a pay cut. I could see it coming up in 2015 if his play slips or Turbin improves but that's still a ways off.

Brown- Showed almost every positive skill set I would like to see in a feature back but also a few negative one's as well. Very interesting to see if this season he gets the type of usage that makes him someone you can plug in your lineup as a flex/RB3 type, assuming Shady is healthy. Key is probably if he can catch a few passes a game, at least in PPR leagues as that will offset a lack of carries. If he's simply more of a COP/handcuff to Shady he's in one of the worst contractual situations in the league in that he'll be stuck on a multi-year contract behind a young, fairly non-injury prone RB on a multi-year contract. If this ends up being the case he's got youth on his side but the wait could be long. Shady's contract does jump up to close to $10 million base in 2015 and in general the last few years of his deal he's paid a lot more than guys holding some of these other back back, like Lynch and Rice on the end of their deals but some of that has to do with Shady being young and the thought he'll still be productive and worth that price tag those years.

Ben Tate- Yes he's been injured more than you'd like to see but other than that he's shown great 3 down skill set. He's in on a great contractual situation as he stands a good chance of being a FA next year which is something that bumps his value up tremendously to me. Yes I understand this is what people thought with the Carolina duo but not every team in the NFL is dumb enough to pay two RB's top dollar. In him I see a guy who can go back to being a flex RB this year and of course a lot more if Arian Foster's workload finally catches up with him. The real payoff is sitting on him in hopes he hit UFA next year.

Bernard Pearce-looks like a complete back. I'm big on fresh legs making a difference so I feel that had a lot to do with it but I felt he was on par or more effective than Ray Rice at the end of the year. The issue here is Ray Rice is still the feature back, still good, and has a contract 2014-2016 won't pay him more than $3million a year meaning he's signed very long term and without fear of a high salary cap number. Personally, and I know stats don't support this, but he's had a huge workload both in college and the NFL and I think he's starting to wear down. This is a situation where I think Pearce makes it more of a true RBBC and possibly eventually overtakes Rice as the lead RB before Rice's contract is up with the Ravens but again the wait could be years and until that time he's no more than a flex type behind a durable RB.

Mark Ingram- He's not a gamebreaker but he's a good patient runner who can catch and run block and might be one of those backs who is a lot better with more of a workload. I don't see a lot of change next year with his usage unless they want to save about $2 million and cut PT, which I don't think happens. I view 2014 as his breakout year as PT's contract expires. Ingram himself is a GA in 2015 if he can never get out this 3 headed RBBC. Keep in mind he's still young and with fresh legs so for someone like me who think he won't break out until 2014 at best I still value him as he'll be 24 years old and with good health have a lot of years left.

These next two backs I'm not sure have the size or makeup to be 3 down backs but I'm fond of their future:

Ronnie Hillman- so he did not play a lot last year, so what. John Fox has always played vet RB's and in general vet's over rookies. The offense in Denver has a chance to be special and he might excel in the wide open attack. Again I'm not sure he's a 3 down back but he's the kind of talent in this offense that could be a fantasy RB1 or strong RB2 even if he's not. The advantage he has over the backs listed above is he's in a better position to be a fantasy contributor right now mainly due to weak competition as currently stands.

Isiah Pead- RB position is not usually difficult to learn but there are some who do struggle early trying to adapt to the game and I think Pead was one of those. I still prefer him over Richardson and would put him on this list due to competition for carries and upside.

There are a few other RB's on this list I could see panning out and I'd like to roster a lot of them but the guys I mentioned are the one's I'd probably be looking most to acquire.

 

[cstu]

I think Dwyer has a shot at the starting role in Pitt and can be had pretty cheap.

Dwyer is a true wild card, the only thing stopping him from being a starting RB is himself. He's now a family man and that can change a person's perspective. If you're a gambler he's worth a late pick (I gave the 3.10). Worst case is you dump him if the Steelers draft a RB early.

 

[EBF]

The following backs are all backs I view as somewhat talented and posses a 3 down back skill set. One thing I look at is trying my best to estimate how long before they might get a chance to be featured or at least usable from a fantasy perspective. Career ending injuries to guys over them on their depth charts are not something I account for as I just can't predict that.

Turbin- With Lynch's back and Seattle's penchant for blowing teams out at home could offer spot start appeal. Have seem him compared to a faster Marion Barber and sort of agree with that. Would love him in a feature role but contractually he and Lynch are bound for multiple years and Lynch figures to still have a few good years in him so the wait could be long. I analyze contracts to see when a team might part with a guy and Lynch's contract is $7mill next season, drops to $5mill in 2014 and takes a slight increase in 2015 to $5.5 million with per game incentives that could add $2million more. In conclusion if he's current play keeps up he'll never be a salary cap casualty or asked to take a pay cut. I could see it coming up in 2015 if his play slips or Turbin improves but that's still a ways off.

Brown- Showed almost every positive skill set I would like to see in a feature back but also a few negative one's as well. Very interesting to see if this season he gets the type of usage that makes him someone you can plug in your lineup as a flex/RB3 type, assuming Shady is healthy. Key is probably if he can catch a few passes a game, at least in PPR leagues as that will offset a lack of carries. If he's simply more of a COP/handcuff to Shady he's in one of the worst contractual situations in the league in that he'll be stuck on a multi-year contract behind a young, fairly non-injury prone RB on a multi-year contract. If this ends up being the case he's got youth on his side but the wait could be long. Shady's contract does jump up to close to $10 million base in 2015 and in general the last few years of his deal he's paid a lot more than guys holding some of these other back back, like Lynch and Rice on the end of their deals but some of that has to do with Shady being young and the thought he'll still be productive and worth that price tag those years.

Ben Tate- Yes he's been injured more than you'd like to see but other than that he's shown great 3 down skill set. He's in on a great contractual situation as he stands a good chance of being a FA next year which is something that bumps his value up tremendously to me. Yes I understand this is what people thought with the Carolina duo but not every team in the NFL is dumb enough to pay two RB's top dollar. In him I see a guy who can go back to being a flex RB this year and of course a lot more if Arian Foster's workload finally catches up with him. The real payoff is sitting on him in hopes he hit UFA next year.

Bernard Pearce-looks like a complete back. I'm big on fresh legs making a difference so I feel that had a lot to do with it but I felt he was on par or more effective than Ray Rice at the end of the year. The issue here is Ray Rice is still the feature back, still good, and has a contract 2014-2016 won't pay him more than $3million a year meaning he's signed very long term and without fear of a high salary cap number. Personally, and I know stats don't support this, but he's had a huge workload both in college and the NFL and I think he's starting to wear down. This is a situation where I think Pearce makes it more of a true RBBC and possibly eventually overtakes Rice as the lead RB before Rice's contract is up with the Ravens but again the wait could be years and until that time he's no more than a flex type behind a durable RB.

Mark Ingram- He's not a gamebreaker but he's a good patient runner who can catch and run block and might be one of those backs who is a lot better with more of a workload. I don't see a lot of change next year with his usage unless they want to save about $2 million and cut PT, which I don't think happens. I view 2014 as his breakout year as PT's contract expires. Ingram himself is a GA in 2015 if he can never get out this 3 headed RBBC. Keep in mind he's still young and with fresh legs so for someone like me who think he won't break out until 2014 at best I still value him as he'll be 24 years old and with good health have a lot of years left.

I tend to agree that these guys have the most potential. I'd also throw Gerhart in there simply because you can probably get him cheap from any non-ADP owner and he would be capable of RB2 numbers if he happens to get signed by a team with RB need next year. Pierce and Brown demand patience, but the flipside is that they're both young. 3-4 years from now they'll still be in their athletic prime. If you're a believer and you have the space to wait, the payoff down the road could be pretty good.

On the other hand, assuming that you got either of those guys before his rookie year, you could flip him for a profit right now and call it a day.

 

[SSOG]

Anyone who plays in deep leagues that require multiple starting RBs knows how difficult it can be to acquire a starter. If you want an established player, you usually have to pay a steep price. Sometimes the best alternative is to find a cheaper option before his value explodes. With that in mind, who do you think are some of the current backup RBs who have the talent to start down the line? I came up with the following list as a starting point. I included a few guys who could possibly be called starters already and excluded a few of the pricey possible starters/RBBC guys like David Wilson, Rashard Mendenhall, and Ryan Williams. LeGarrette Blount, TBBrandon Bolden, NEBryce Brown, PHI Toby Gerhart, MIN Mike Goodson, NYJ Roy Helu, WASRonnie Hillman, DEN Kendall Hunter, SFMark Ingram, NOChris Ivory, NOLaMichael James, SF Joe McKnight, NYJ Isaiah Pead, STLBernard Pierce, BALBilal Powell, NYJ Daryl Richardson, STL Jacquizz Rodgers, ATL Ben Tate, HOURobert Turbin, SEA Shane Vereen, NE My short list would probably be:Brandon Bolden, NE - A half step slow, but otherwise seems to have everything needed to be a starting power back. I like him more than Vereen. Bryce Brown, PHI - Seems to have a lot of natural talent. Showed flashes of brilliance last year. Enough to pump up his price tag a lot.Toby Gerhart, MIN - Has a good pedigree, a decent NFL track record, and is available for cheap. Free agent after this season. Kendall Hunter, SF - A bit small, but heavy for his height. Was consistently effective before his injury. Not sure he's a featured back though. Mark Ingram, NO - Looks like a pedestrian talent relative to the other players in the league. I still might take a chance on him if his value drops low enough. Bernard Pierce, BAL - Fairly high pick and showed a lot of talent as a rookie, eating into Rice's workload. Some durability red flags.Ben Tate, HOU - When he's been healthy, he has shown a lot of potential. Unfortunately he hasn't been healthy very often.Robert Turbin, SEA - Shouldn't cost a fortune and seems like a guy who would have a chance to excel if given an opportunity for PT. Thoughts? Who are the best players on this list?Who offers the most value per cost?

Good topic and good list here. I ended up with a bunch of these guys on my team last year for this very reason. They were cheap and I figured I would just see which ones stick.I would add Dwyer, Dujuan Harris and Rashad Jennings to the list. I know harris is available in my league's upcoming rookie draft. Not sure about the majority of other leagues. I think Dwyer has a shot at the starting role in Pitt and can be had pretty cheap. Jennings flopped last year when he had the starting job, but I think that had to do with injury somewhat so I'm willing to give him a shot and see if he lands on a team. May not happen til mid season so you'll need patience with him.As far as best value on the list for the price, I would say guys like Mcknight, Bolden, and Dwyer are the only ones that can be had really cheap. All the other guys are getting enough hype right now that their owners want projected market value. I'm not willing to pay that on a hunch.

It's hard to be patient with Jennings. He's only three days younger than MJD. I'd much rather save the roster space for someone under 28.

 

[jmo87usc]

Anyone who plays in deep leagues that require multiple starting RBs knows how difficult it can be to acquire a starter. If you want an established player, you usually have to pay a steep price. Sometimes the best alternative is to find a cheaper option before his value explodes. With that in mind, who do you think are some of the current backup RBs who have the talent to start down the line? I came up with the following list as a starting point. I included a few guys who could possibly be called starters already and excluded a few of the pricey possible starters/RBBC guys like David Wilson, Rashard Mendenhall, and Ryan Williams. LeGarrette Blount, TBBrandon Bolden, NEBryce Brown, PHI Toby Gerhart, MIN Mike Goodson, NYJ Roy Helu, WASRonnie Hillman, DEN Kendall Hunter, SFMark Ingram, NOChris Ivory, NOLaMichael James, SF Joe McKnight, NYJ Isaiah Pead, STLBernard Pierce, BALBilal Powell, NYJ Daryl Richardson, STL Jacquizz Rodgers, ATL Ben Tate, HOURobert Turbin, SEA Shane Vereen, NE My short list would probably be:Brandon Bolden, NE - A half step slow, but otherwise seems to have everything needed to be a starting power back. I like him more than Vereen. Bryce Brown, PHI - Seems to have a lot of natural talent. Showed flashes of brilliance last year. Enough to pump up his price tag a lot.Toby Gerhart, MIN - Has a good pedigree, a decent NFL track record, and is available for cheap. Free agent after this season. Kendall Hunter, SF - A bit small, but heavy for his height. Was consistently effective before his injury. Not sure he's a featured back though. Mark Ingram, NO - Looks like a pedestrian talent relative to the other players in the league. I still might take a chance on him if his value drops low enough. Bernard Pierce, BAL - Fairly high pick and showed a lot of talent as a rookie, eating into Rice's workload. Some durability red flags.Ben Tate, HOU - When he's been healthy, he has shown a lot of potential. Unfortunately he hasn't been healthy very often.Robert Turbin, SEA - Shouldn't cost a fortune and seems like a guy who would have a chance to excel if given an opportunity for PT. Thoughts? Who are the best players on this list?Who offers the most value per cost?

Good topic and good list here. I ended up with a bunch of these guys on my team last year for this very reason. They were cheap and I figured I would just see which ones stick.I would add Dwyer, Dujuan Harris and Rashad Jennings to the list. I know harris is available in my league's upcoming rookie draft. Not sure about the majority of other leagues. I think Dwyer has a shot at the starting role in Pitt and can be had pretty cheap. Jennings flopped last year when he had the starting job, but I think that had to do with injury somewhat so I'm willing to give him a shot and see if he lands on a team. May not happen til mid season so you'll need patience with him.As far as best value on the list for the price, I would say guys like Mcknight, Bolden, and Dwyer are the only ones that can be had really cheap. All the other guys are getting enough hype right now that their owners want projected market value. I'm not willing to pay that on a hunch.

It's hard to be patient with Jennings. He's only three days younger than MJD. I'd much rather save the roster space for someone under 28.

I agree with you to an extent. 28 doesn't bother me especially with low milage. He showed such potential in previous years and in 2012 preseason. Probably doesn't belong on the list since he has little chance of becoming a starter anywhere. He's more of a very cheap pick up that could put up solid numbers as a change of pace back. More of a desperation move if you have no other options

 

[Hook Em']

Mike Goodson?

 

[coolnerd]

When i hear starter, i am thinking of a multiple year guy as clearly "the guy" for a team. All of these guys could finish out a year as the "the starter" or be the lead in a frustrting committee. I think stats will hold this although i am not looking them up, but for the most part if a RB is not the "man" by the start of year three, the chance are low that they ever will.

Best chance based on what i have seen as a pro in terms of "talent"

B. Brown

B. Pierce

R. turbin

Will get a chance based on curretnt situation

Hillman

Pead/richardson

powell

Will probably continue tease at the thought, but could put egg on my face.

K. Hunter

M. Ingram

B. tate

Vereen

probably will never really get the chance barring injury/coaching philosophy change.

Bolden

Helu

Gerhart

Ivory

J. Rodgers

Would just simply surprise the bleep out of me

Blount

James

Goddson/McKnight

 

[Shutout]

Ben Tate tops my list based on all factors considered because we know if anything happens to Foster in the present, you have a starting RB and we know his contract ends this season and with the way the Texans are doing business, he's going to leave. We also know that we have just enough history out there right now to show that people knwo that WITHOUT an injury to Foster, Tate's value is almost nill so there are people out there that have been holding him a few years and are probably open to talking trade, especially if they are in a "win now" mode. Looking at some teams that have good but older backs right now, it is VERY easy to imagin a guy like Tate going to the Niners or Falcons or Colts, etc next year and I think at age 25 he will be much like Turner was: very low miles with very big game hitting the market at a time when there are a number of good teams needing to start thinking about RBs.

Pead is probably one with as good a chance as any at a job very soon so you prbably want to give him consideration.

Turbin might be one fo the cheapest if you have an appetite for gambling. With no appearance of Lynch going anywhere at all BUT given his back issues and his running style, things could probably change quicker there than in most places.

I don't like Pierce or Jennings as much because I'm not a fan of the backs that grow old together. People make a good case for both of these guys in comparison to MJD and Rice but they are in the same age windows as the clear cut starters and it seems a lot of times that teams don't replace the 30 year old with the 27 year old, they just sweep the new broom completely.

Helu might be the biggest bargain of them all but also the biggest likelihood to be nothing. He could re-emerge and pay off in spades just as easily as he could fade to obscurity.

 

[offdee]

^^ Bernard Pierce is 22 yrs old.

 

[FF Ninja]

The following backs ...

I don't say this often, but good posting.The only thing I disagree with is the fresh legs part (seems like an old wives tale for fantasy owners, using the simplest explanation to make sense of something they didn't expect) but that's really minor.Overall, solid analysis into each situation and I agree with the general sentiment in each one, especially the idea that Ray Rice is due for some disappointment. He has had a heavy workload and he never looks very explosive. He typically ranks very low in the elusive ratings, so I suspect he makes his yards off of just being a smart player. He's never struck me as a very fast guy. It is quite possible that Pierce does outplay him in some aspects this year. I'll actually be pretty shocked if Pierce doesn't have better yards per touch than Rice. That's not to say there will be a changing of the guard this year, though.You mention Hillman which to me brings Moreno into the conversation. I expect Denver to seek RB help, but if it's not in the cards this year then I think Moreno could be a serviceable RB for 2013. I wouldn't expect more than 4.0 ypc out of him, but he has all the making of an Addia-type player. The similarities are eerie. Ingram I like as a value play this year (although I thought the same thing last year). He saw a bump in workload which also followed with a bump in production. His 8 game split is striking. 54 carries at 3.3 ypc vs. 102 carries at 4.2 ypc. If I'm being manipulative, I could do a 7/9 split where his ypc split would be 2.85 vs. 4.29. Either way, things were looking up for him as he finished the season. His lack of involvement in the passing game is going to hold him back, though. But I really expect him to see over 200 carries next year, barring injury of course.Someone else mentioned Dwyer - I think he's in a similar situation to Moreno. Pit is obviously at least interested in addressing his position if they were kicking the tires on Beanie Wells, but sometimes positions of interest just don't get addressed for one reason or another. With a little luck and some apparent new found motivation, Dwyer could be a surprise stud next year. He had back-to-back 100 yard games (17/122 and 17/102) when he got forced into starter duty. I've read that he's married and has a kid or something so he's more dedicated than before. And his immediate signing of his tender was meant as a sign of his dedication to his team and his desire to be the best RB he can be for them. I guess we'll see.

 

[KellysHeroes]

Gerhart will be 28 yrs old when hes a FA, move along

 

[cstu]

Gerhart will be 28 yrs old when hes a FA, move along

27 next year as a UFA.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Another vote for Pierce and Turbin here.

I also really like Bolden. If he ever gets a starting gig I think he'd be $$. But there could be stuff we don't know about that led him to being an UDFA, he's already been busted for PEDs once, and he's third or fourth in line for touches currently. So obviously he's more of a longshot. But I do think that guy can flat play.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Toby Gerhart, MIN - Has a good pedigree, a decent NFL track record, and is available for cheap. Free agent after this season.

I've seen you say this many times but I just don't buy it. I'm not disagreeing that he'd be a good guy to target (in a vacuum), but he's owned by the Peterson owner in all 5 of my dynasty leagues and my guess is that isn't all that uncommon (especially after what was expected to happen at the begining of last season). The Peterson owner isn't going to give him up cheaply.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I think Dwyer has a shot at the starting role in Pitt and can be had pretty cheap.

Dwyer is a true wild card, the only thing stopping him from being a starting RB is himself. He's now a family man and that can change a person's perspective. If you're a gambler he's worth a late pick (I gave the 3.10). Worst case is you dump him if the Steelers draft a RB early.

I was very impressed with Dwyer last season, but it seems the Steelers just don't believe in him for some reason. Even if they don't add a back in FA or the draft (and they likely will) it seems they'd prefer to go with Redman.As to the topic, my favorite backup is Turbin. His situation seems bleake right now, but he looks like a feature back in waiting to me. It may be a Michael Turner situation where we have to wait for his rookie contract to play out, but I think we'll see similar results to Turner when it finally does.

 

[TheFanatic]

Shhhhhhh LaMichael James Shhhhhhh

 

[Shutout]

^^ Bernard Pierce is 22 yrs old.

Yes, but the point is he will be 23 in May and rice is 26. The ages are too close considering that Rice is pretty much a consensus elite talent. By the time Rice starts wearing down, at 30-31 or whatever it may be, a 27-28 year old Pierce won't be the next coming; he will be the bridge player for the 21-22 year old rookie the team drafts. The other option is Pierce leaves when his contract finishes, which puts him at 25 going on 26 that May which is right in that fringe area. It just has the looks of one of those scenarios where the bad combo of age/opportunity kinda washes out what could have been. Very JSTEW-like.

 

[FF Ninja]

I think Dwyer has a shot at the starting role in Pitt and can be had pretty cheap.

Dwyer is a true wild card, the only thing stopping him from being a starting RB is himself. He's now a family man and that can change a person's perspective. If you're a gambler he's worth a late pick (I gave the 3.10). Worst case is you dump him if the Steelers draft a RB early.

I was very impressed with Dwyer last season, but it seems the Steelers just don't believe in him for some reason. Even if they don't add a back in FA or the draft (and they likely will) it seems they'd prefer to go with Redman.As to the topic, my favorite backup is Turbin. His situation seems bleake right now, but he looks like a feature back in waiting to me. It may be a Michael Turner situation where we have to wait for his rookie contract to play out, but I think we'll see similar results to Turner when it finally does.

I don't think Redman is a slouch, so I couldn't argue with them if that statement was true, but I don't think it is. After an impressive 26/147 week 9 performance against the Giants, he got only 34 carries over the next 8 games while Dwyer got 98.

 

[Shutout]

The following backs ...

I don't say this often, but good posting.The only thing I disagree with is the fresh legs part (seems like an old wives tale for fantasy owners, using the simplest explanation to make sense of something they didn't expect) but that's really minor.

Overall, solid analysis into each situation and I agree with the general sentiment in each one, especially the idea that Ray Rice is due for some disappointment. He has had a heavy workload and he never looks very explosive. He typically ranks very low in the elusive ratings, so I suspect he makes his yards off of just being a smart player. He's never struck me as a very fast guy. It is quite possible that Pierce does outplay him in some aspects this year. I'll actually be pretty shocked if Pierce doesn't have better yards per touch than Rice. That's not to say there will be a changing of the guard this year, though.

You mention Hillman which to me brings Moreno into the conversation. I expect Denver to seek RB help, but if it's not in the cards this year then I think Moreno could be a serviceable RB for 2013. I wouldn't expect more than 4.0 ypc out of him, but he has all the making of an Addia-type player. The similarities are eerie.

Ingram I like as a value play this year (although I thought the same thing last year). He saw a bump in workload which also followed with a bump in production. His 8 game split is striking. 54 carries at 3.3 ypc vs. 102 carries at 4.2 ypc. If I'm being manipulative, I could do a 7/9 split where his ypc split would be 2.85 vs. 4.29. Either way, things were looking up for him as he finished the season. His lack of involvement in the passing game is going to hold him back, though. But I really expect him to see over 200 carries next year, barring injury of course.

Someone else mentioned Dwyer - I think he's in a similar situation to Moreno. Pit is obviously at least interested in addressing his position if they were kicking the tires on Beanie Wells, but sometimes positions of interest just don't get addressed for one reason or another. With a little luck and some apparent new found motivation, Dwyer could be a surprise stud next year. He had back-to-back 100 yard games (17/122 and 17/102) when he got forced into starter duty. I've read that he's married and has a kid or something so he's more dedicated than before. And his immediate signing of his tender was meant as a sign of his dedication to his team and his desire to be the best RB he can be for them. I guess we'll see.

There have been a number of us who have mentioned this similarity for a while but I think it is worth underscoring because this seems to be a HUGELY overlooked opportunity in fantasy right now. I don't know if people are thinking Hillman or Denver will draft a stud or DWIL will end up there (and all those things could happen), but Moreno is being overlooked way too much IMO considering what he did down the stretch and considering the Broncos didn't decide to go to Hillman when they could have easily. Moreno is SO SO perfect for working with Manning, pass protecting, catching the screens, being that ADDAI-like guy. I just think there is a lot of potential FF value there to be had.

 

[FF Ninja]

There have been a number of us who have mentioned this similarity for a while but I think it is worth underscoring because this seems to be a HUGELY overlooked opportunity in fantasy right now. I don't know if people are thinking Hillman or Denver will draft a stud or DWIL will end up there (and all those things could happen), but Moreno is being overlooked way too much IMO considering what he did down the stretch and considering the Broncos didn't decide to go to Hillman when they could have easily. Moreno is SO SO perfect for working with Manning, pass protecting, catching the screens, being that ADDAI-like guy. I just think there is a lot of potential FF value there to be had.

Yeah, I know I've mentioned it in other threads, too, but I can totally see why people are down on him even if I'm not. I just ran a quick data dominator for the last 6 weeks of the season and while Knowshon was the #6 scoring RB, he did that on a heavy workload and with only 3.9 ypc. An interesting note is that during that same span, fan favorite Doug Martin was the #7 RB with even worse stats. Here's the breakdown:

Player car yds ypc TD tgt rec yds ypr TDMoreno 131 513 3.9  3  25  20 155 7.8  0Martin 122 454 3.7  4  29  22 153 7.0  0

 

[Dr. Octopus]

The following backs ...

I don't say this often, but good posting.The only thing I disagree with is the fresh legs part (seems like an old wives tale for fantasy owners, using the simplest explanation to make sense of something they didn't expect) but that's really minor.

Overall, solid analysis into each situation and I agree with the general sentiment in each one, especially the idea that Ray Rice is due for some disappointment. He has had a heavy workload and he never looks very explosive. He typically ranks very low in the elusive ratings, so I suspect he makes his yards off of just being a smart player. He's never struck me as a very fast guy. It is quite possible that Pierce does outplay him in some aspects this year. I'll actually be pretty shocked if Pierce doesn't have better yards per touch than Rice. That's not to say there will be a changing of the guard this year, though.

You mention Hillman which to me brings Moreno into the conversation. I expect Denver to seek RB help, but if it's not in the cards this year then I think Moreno could be a serviceable RB for 2013. I wouldn't expect more than 4.0 ypc out of him, but he has all the making of an Addia-type player. The similarities are eerie.

Ingram I like as a value play this year (although I thought the same thing last year). He saw a bump in workload which also followed with a bump in production. His 8 game split is striking. 54 carries at 3.3 ypc vs. 102 carries at 4.2 ypc. If I'm being manipulative, I could do a 7/9 split where his ypc split would be 2.85 vs. 4.29. Either way, things were looking up for him as he finished the season. His lack of involvement in the passing game is going to hold him back, though. But I really expect him to see over 200 carries next year, barring injury of course.

Someone else mentioned Dwyer - I think he's in a similar situation to Moreno. Pit is obviously at least interested in addressing his position if they were kicking the tires on Beanie Wells, but sometimes positions of interest just don't get addressed for one reason or another. With a little luck and some apparent new found motivation, Dwyer could be a surprise stud next year. He had back-to-back 100 yard games (17/122 and 17/102) when he got forced into starter duty. I've read that he's married and has a kid or something so he's more dedicated than before. And his immediate signing of his tender was meant as a sign of his dedication to his team and his desire to be the best RB he can be for them. I guess we'll see.

There have been a number of us who have mentioned this similarity for a while but I think it is worth underscoring because this seems to be a HUGELY overlooked opportunity in fantasy right now. I don't know if people are thinking Hillman or Denver will draft a stud or DWIL will end up there (and all those things could happen), but Moreno is being overlooked way too much IMO considering what he did down the stretch and considering the Broncos didn't decide to go to Hillman when they could have easily. Moreno is SO SO perfect for working with Manning, pass protecting, catching the screens, being that ADDAI-like guy. I just think there is a lot of potential FF value there to be had.

There's just too many different directions (other than Moreno) that Denver can go in at this point that it's tough to get a read right now:1. McGahee is still on the roster. He's 32 but still looked very effective the last two seasons.

2. Hillman started getting some run late in the year - looked decent in the playoffs.

3. The interest in Mendenhall (if it really existed) could mean other veterans will be looked at - if D. Williams gets released by Carolina, Fox could show interest.

4. The NFL draft could further complicate things.

 

[Warpig]

Shhhhhhh LaMichael James Shhhhhhh

 

[squistion]

Toby Gerhart, MIN - Has a good pedigree, a decent NFL track record, and is available for cheap. Free agent after this season.

I've seen you say this many times but I just don't buy it. I'm not disagreeing that he'd be a good guy to target (in a vacuum), but he's owned by the Peterson owner in all 5 of my dynasty leagues and my guess is that isn't all that uncommon (especially after what was expected to happen at the begining of last season). The Peterson owner isn't going to give him up cheaply.

Yes, in an existing league, if the Peterson owner also has Gerhart, you would have to pay a premium to acquire him.However I think EBF may be referring more to new leagues. I participated in two recent startups and got him at 15.10 and 17.01 (and probably could have waited a few more rounds in each) so in that situation he is relatively cheap.

 

[TheFanatic]

There's just too many different directions (other than Moreno) that Denver can go in at this point that it's tough to get a read right now:

1. McGahee is still on the roster. He's 32 but still looked very effective the last two seasons.

2. Hillman started getting some run late in the year - looked decent in the playoffs.

3. The interest in Mendenhall (if it really existed) could mean other veterans will be looked at - if D. Williams gets released by Carolina, Fox could show interest.

4. The NFL draft could further complicate things.

I saw a RB with little power. I wouldn't describe it as decent but that's just me...

 

[moderated]

There's just too many different directions (other than Moreno) that Denver can go in at this point that it's tough to get a read right now:

1. McGahee is still on the roster. He's 32 but still looked very effective the last two seasons.

2. Hillman started getting some run late in the year - looked decent in the playoffs.

3. The interest in Mendenhall (if it really existed) could mean other veterans will be looked at - if D. Williams gets released by Carolina, Fox could show interest.

4. The NFL draft could further complicate things.

I saw a RB with little power. I wouldn't describe it as decent but that's just me...

Hillman is a COP back, no clue why people keep thinking he's going to all of a sudden become a feature RB. When he was drafted Elway stated he sees him as a Darren Sproles type guy. That doesn't mean he can't have some decent seasons, but Sproles is his upside.

 

[TheFanatic]

There's just too many different directions (other than Moreno) that Denver can go in at this point that it's tough to get a read right now:

1. McGahee is still on the roster. He's 32 but still looked very effective the last two seasons.

2. Hillman started getting some run late in the year - looked decent in the playoffs.

3. The interest in Mendenhall (if it really existed) could mean other veterans will be looked at - if D. Williams gets released by Carolina, Fox could show interest.

4. The NFL draft could further complicate things.

I saw a RB with little power. I wouldn't describe it as decent but that's just me...

Hillman is a COP back, no clue why people keep thinking he's going to all of a sudden become a feature RB. When he was drafted Elway stated he sees him as a Darren Sproles type guy. That doesn't mean he can't have some decent seasons, but Sproles is his upside.

I agree.

 

[FF Ninja]

There's just too many different directions (other than Moreno) that Denver can go in at this point that it's tough to get a read right now:1. McGahee is still on the roster. He's 32 but still looked very effective the last two seasons.2. Hillman started getting some run late in the year - looked decent in the playoffs.3. The interest in Mendenhall (if it really existed) could mean other veterans will be looked at - if D. Williams gets released by Carolina, Fox could show interest.4. The NFL draft could further complicate things.

I agree with your first line, as I stated that I expect them to seek additional help at the RB position, but I don't think McGahee is a threat. He did rejuvenate his career in Denver but ended the season injured and is due $2.5 million next year - not a whole lot for a starter, but it does seem like a lot for a 32 year old RB. I never saw him as a natural fit in this offense anyway.I really think they do see Hillman as a complementary back, not a lead back.Free agents most certainly WILL be looked at. But they just lost Dumvervil and signed Welker and an offensive lineman, so their focus is probably more on defense than offense.The Broncos have 1 pick in each round except for 6th, but keep in mind that Fox tends to favor vets over rookies, so unless they spend an early pick (and even then we can reference DeShaun Foster/DWill and Dwill/Stewart), I don't feel concerned about this aspect.

 

[FunkyPlutos]

Gerhart will be 28 yrs old when hes a FA, move along

27 next year as a UFA.

With very low mileage...

 

[TheFanatic]

Gerhart will be 28 yrs old when hes a FA, move along

27 next year as a UFA.

With very low mileage...

This needs to stop... guys heal slower when they get older, mileage or no. And it was shown the higher mileage backs tend to last longer as they know how to deal with hits game in and game out, year in and year out. The mileage thing is a myth...

 

[FF Ninja]

Gerhart will be 28 yrs old when hes a FA, move along

27 next year as a UFA.

With very low mileage...

Could be like Turner. 4 years of low mileage, 4 years of quality production, and 1 year of... whatever last year was. 3.6 ypc but finished RB18 I think Turner was about 26 when he got his contract, so if Gerhart somehow got a starting gig at 27 there would be hope. Although, I'd be kind of surprised if Gerhart got that kind of a shot in FA. In spot duty Turner put up 5.2 ypc, 5.9, 6.3, 4.5 while Gerhart has produced 4.0, 4.9, 3.4 to date. I think teams were a little more excited about Turner.

 

[jonboltz]

I'd like Gerhart quite a bit if someone signs him to be a lead back or a large part of committee. I just don't get the sense that he is going to be thought of that highly by other GMs, barring an injury to ADP that allows him to showcase himself more frequently.

 

[EBF]

I'd like Gerhart quite a bit if someone signs him to be a lead back or a large part of committee. I just don't get the sense that he is going to be thought of that highly by other GMs, barring an injury to ADP that allows him to showcase himself more frequently.

Agree, but is there a worse FF situation for a power back than being stuck behind Peterson?I don't think anyone is going to throw starter money at Gerhart, but I do think he's good enough to get a second contract somewhere.

 

[jonboltz]

I'd like Gerhart quite a bit if someone signs him to be a lead back or a large part of committee. I just don't get the sense that he is going to be thought of that highly by other GMs, barring an injury to ADP that allows him to showcase himself more frequently.

Agree, but is there a worse FF situation for a power back than being stuck behind Peterson?I don't think anyone is going to throw starter money at Gerhart, but I do think he's good enough to get a second contract somewhere.

Oh, I certainly think he will be playing somewhere next year. I wouldn't be surprised if he's back in Minnesota.If I had to pick one of the guys that is more likely to get the best shot elsewhere out of that list (ie, not the young guys under contract for several years), it would easily be Blount in my mind.

 

[Andrew74]

^^ Bernard Pierce is 22 yrs old.

Yes, but the point is he will be 23 in May and rice is 26. The ages are too close considering that Rice is pretty much a consensus elite talent. By the time Rice starts wearing down, at 30-31 or whatever it may be, a 27-28 year old Pierce won't be the next coming; he will be the bridge player for the 21-22 year old rookie the team drafts. The other option is Pierce leaves when his contract finishes, which puts him at 25 going on 26 that May which is right in that fringe area. It just has the looks of one of those scenarios where the bad combo of age/opportunity kinda washes out what could have been. Very JSTEW-like.

Unless MFL is wrong, Pierce will turn 22 in May, but the point is taken.

 

[cstu]

^^ Bernard Pierce is 22 yrs old.

Yes, but the point is he will be 23 in May and rice is 26. The ages are too close considering that Rice is pretty much a consensus elite talent. By the time Rice starts wearing down, at 30-31 or whatever it may be, a 27-28 year old Pierce won't be the next coming; he will be the bridge player for the 21-22 year old rookie the team drafts. The other option is Pierce leaves when his contract finishes, which puts him at 25 going on 26 that May which is right in that fringe area. It just has the looks of one of those scenarios where the bad combo of age/opportunity kinda washes out what could have been. Very JSTEW-like.

Unless MFL is wrong, Pierce will turn 22 in May, but the point is taken.

I think it's wrong, Google shows May, 1990.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

There's just too many different directions (other than Moreno) that Denver can go in at this point that it's tough to get a read right now:

1. McGahee is still on the roster. He's 32 but still looked very effective the last two seasons.

2. Hillman started getting some run late in the year - looked decent in the playoffs.

3. The interest in Mendenhall (if it really existed) could mean other veterans will be looked at - if D. Williams gets released by Carolina, Fox could show interest.

4. The NFL draft could further complicate things.

I saw a RB with little power. I wouldn't describe it as decent but that's just me...

He gained chunks of yardage running up the middle late in the game. I'm only saying he looked decent, not elite. I'm also not trying to imply that he'll be the bellcow back, just that his CoP role may increase thus taking away some of Moreno's potential production, since most of it was a result of volume.I'm not down on Moreno, I'm just not partiularly high on him either. I get the feeling he's really not a big part of the Broncos plans based on some things I've read - but honestly I really have no idea what's going to happen there, which was the general point of that post.

 

[matttyl]

Might not be the type of RB you're thinking about in the OP, but how about DeAngelo Williams? Saw a news post yesterday that he's "on the trade block" - which to me means that Carolina doesn't want him, but does want to get something back for him and not just outright cut him. He could end up in Denver, Pittsburgh, or Green Bay as the starter THIS YEAR.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Might not be the type of RB you're thinking about in the OP, but how about DeAngelo Williams? Saw a news post yesterday that he's "on the trade block" - which to me means that Carolina doesn't want him, but does want to get something back for him and not just outright cut him. He could end up in Denver, Pittsburgh, or Green Bay as the starter THIS YEAR.

teams dont trade for players they know are about to be cut. Plus his contract is too high.Carolina will kep DeAngelo this year, again.

 

[matttyl]

Might not be the type of RB you're thinking about in the OP, but how about DeAngelo Williams? Saw a news post yesterday that he's "on the trade block" - which to me means that Carolina doesn't want him, but does want to get something back for him and not just outright cut him. He could end up in Denver, Pittsburgh, or Green Bay as the starter THIS YEAR.

teams dont trade for players they know are about to be cut. Plus his contract is too high.Carolina will kep DeAngelo this year, again.

Bit of a contradiction, don't you think? I didn't say he would be traded, but I don't think he'll be in Carolina. He'll be cut (though that doesn't mean he won't resign back with Carolina).

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Might not be the type of RB you're thinking about in the OP, but how about DeAngelo Williams? Saw a news post yesterday that he's "on the trade block" - which to me means that Carolina doesn't want him, but does want to get something back for him and not just outright cut him. He could end up in Denver, Pittsburgh, or Green Bay as the starter THIS YEAR.

teams dont trade for players they know are about to be cut. Plus his contract is too high.Carolina will kep DeAngelo this year, again.

Bit of a contradiction, don't you think? I didn't say he would be traded, but I don't think he'll be in Carolina. He'll be cut (though that doesn't mean he won't resign back with Carolina).

I personally dont think he will be cut. I think he stays in carolina, other teams wont help Carolina's cap situation.

Your situation is a possiblity too, I guess.