For the fraud, under normal circumstances, I'd say a tie between WAS and SF, but given SF's division, I just don't see anyone overtaking them to get to the playoffs. Are they as good as their record? No. But are they still better than the detritus that populates the rest of the NFC West? Absolutely. WAS is a good story, but their division is still better than SF. SD might be the candidate that misses the playoffs, though. OAK is showing a lot of improvement and Hue has everyone bought in. I could easily see OAK taking the division with SD narrowly missing a WC spot. SD doesn't have any good wins yet with four wins over some of the worst teams (MIN, KC, MIA, and DEN) while OAK has wins vs. NYJ and HOU.
I don't think any of the teams from the real deal group is going to make the playoffs, though DAL seems to be in the best position given the flawed teams in front of them. Seems like one WC spot in the NFC is already etched for DET or GB, leaving one other to fight over with a pretty wide open field at this point. In the AFC, the second tier of teams is just much better than the NFC (though I think GB and NO for sure are better than anyone in the AFC and DET might be). It's possible someone like the Jets can make a run, but they are too flawed for me to give them much credit. OAK already has a head to head tiebreaker on them, which could be the deciding factor.
For the 0-4 teams, I think Indy wins this weekend vs. Cincy. No way STL comes close to GB and I don't see MIA with Moore as a big test for NYJ. But I agree with someone else. If Indy doesn't do it now, they're staring at 0-9.