Which of these guys will be a top 10 RB in 2006? (1 Viewer)

[eoMMan]

If more than one, please specify.

Scoring System:

Performance - Version 2

All TDs are worth 6 pts

Passing yards are 1 pt for 20 yd (rush/rec are 1 pt for 10 yd)

Turnovers are (-1)

FGs are worth 3 pts (PATs are 1)

Def scores pts for TD, sack, TO, safety, & shut out

Start 1QB / 2RB / 2WR / 1TE / 1Flex / 1PK / 1DT

 

[H.K.]

Knowing the scoring system may help out some...

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

White, Maroney and possibly Rhodes.

 

[Sigfawn]

White, Maroney and possibly Rhodes.

Caddy/Benson/Brown all failed to make the top 10, and all were very high 1st round picks.But a late 1st and mid 2nd round RB, who won't be starting, will be top 10 RBs?

When's the last time two rookie RBs finished in the top 10?

Rhodes has an outside shot, no one else has a chance.

The last rookie RB to be in the top 10 was Portis in 2002. So 0 in the last 3 years, and we'll have two bust out this year? Unlikely.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

When's the last time two rookie RBs finished in the top 10?

1996 off the top of my head.

Rhodes has an outside shot, no one else has a chance.

No one has a chance?

 

[Duckboy]

IMO, the Indy RB has an outside shot at top 10; I'm just not convinced it will be the same guy all year.

PPR, might be tempted to say Bush. Otherwise, no go.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

For a rookie to make Top 10, they have to be the starter from the onset and get the bulk of the work.

Therefore, Addai and Bush are out.

Addai forces Rhodes out.

LenDale White and DeAngelo Williams have a chance to start by Week 1. Even if they do, I see vets taking carries from them (no rookie here should have 20+ carries a game).

Both rookies have an outside chance, but I doubt it.

 

[Big Score]

For a rookie to make Top 10, they have to be the starter from the onset and get the bulk of the work.

I don't think Clinton Portis agrees with you Jeff.

 

[hitmenssharpshooters]

the only one who has a shot is Reggie Bush that is why I picked him but I doubt anyone will.

 

[gman8343]

If Addai beats out Rhodes and garners the majority of carries I could easily see him putting up top 10 numbers. A lot has to go right for this to happen, though.

Don't see any of the other guys doing it barring injury to another RB ala Thomas Jones/Deuce/Chris Brown etc.

 

[BoltzNBrew]

I wonder why Dodds' projections have Addai higher that Rhodes.....

 

[mustacheman]

For a rookie to make Top 10, they have to be the starter from the onset and get the bulk of the work.

Do you have any evidence to back this assertion up?

 

[MLBrandow]

Benson has the best chance, followed distantly by White and then Williams in another gap. While I believe White will, I don't believe Williams will for at least a few games, possibly a month.

None of the others on that list have an even remote chance.

Addai won't be starting until late in the season, if at all.

Bush won't be starting at all, and should flirt with around 1000 total yards and maybe double digit TDs.

Maroney will be holding Dillon's jock strap all year, so I don't see how he has even a remote chance. I could see him cracking 3-500 yards as a ceiling unless Dillon is in a horrific car accident in the preseason or something.

While Rhodes will be starting, he'll gradually lose carries throughout the year. While I don't expect it to be much more than 5-7 in the first few games, I expect that if IND is locked into a playoff position, he'll be on the bench for most or all of the last one or two games.

For a rookie to make Top 10, they have to be the starter from the onset and get the bulk of the work.

Do you have any evidence to back this assertion up?

That some kind of joke? Does he need to prove to you that you should take an RB in the first round, too?

 

[renesauz]

Benson is being paid as a starter, and will be given every chance to take the starting role. He's the only one I see with a strong chance barring injuries elsewhere (EG: Bush may have a strong chance should McCallister get hurt again early season).

Barring injuries elsewhere, Rhodes is the only other one I see with a chance.

 

[Birdie048]

Voted NONE.... simply due to the situation each RB is in does not guarantee them to be RB#1 opening day.

Odds of any of them getting 1000 yards in a RBBC environment would lead to a very unusual situation.... 50-1 odds against it, IMO.

 

[Big Score]

For a rookie to make Top 10, they have to be the starter from the onset and get the bulk of the work.

Do you have any evidence to back this assertion up?

That some kind of joke? Does he need to prove to you that you should take an RB in the first round, too?

Why would it be a joke? The guy is asking if Pasquino can back up what he's saying.Anyway, as pointed out a few posts before with the Clinton Portis , Pasquino is not 100% correct in what he said.

No biggie though

 

[mustacheman]

For a rookie to make Top 10, they have to be the starter from the onset and get the bulk of the work.

Do you have any evidence to back this assertion up?

That some kind of joke? Does he need to prove to you that you should take an RB in the first round, too?

Why would it be a joke? The guy is asking if Pasquino can back up what he's saying.Anyway, as pointed out a few posts before with the Clinton Portis , Pasquino is not 100% correct in what he said.

No biggie though

Since 1990, 4 rookies have made the top-10 (using standard FBG scoring) without being the starter at the beginning of the season, nor playing a full 16 game schedule:Clinton Portis, #4, 2002

Mike Anderson, #4, 2000

Fred Taylor, #4, 1998

Ricky Watters, #8, 1992

Additionally, another 5 RBs finished in the 11-14 range while meeting the same criteria:

Domanick Davis, #14, 2003

Domanic Rhodes, #11, 2001

Anthony Thomas, #13, 2001

Olandis Gary, #14, 1999

Terrell Davis, #12, 1995

I'd guess that a lot of these guys won league championships for their owners without being anointed the "starter from the onset while getting the bulk of the work."

 

[fatness]

Barring injury to their competition on their respective rosters, none of them will make the top 10.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

For a rookie to make Top 10, they have to be the starter from the onset and get the bulk of the work.

Do you have any evidence to back this assertion up?

That some kind of joke? Does he need to prove to you that you should take an RB in the first round, too?

Why would it be a joke? The guy is asking if Pasquino can back up what he's saying.Anyway, as pointed out a few posts before with the Clinton Portis , Pasquino is not 100% correct in what he said.

No biggie though

Since 1990, 4 rookies have made the top-10 (using standard FBG scoring) without being the starter at the beginning of the season, nor playing a full 16 game schedule:Clinton Portis, #4, 2002

Mike Anderson, #4, 2000

Fred Taylor, #4, 1998

Ricky Watters, #8, 1992

Additionally, another 5 RBs finished in the 11-14 range while meeting the same criteria:

Domanick Davis, #14, 2003

Domanic Rhodes, #11, 2001

Anthony Thomas, #13, 2001

Olandis Gary, #14, 1999

Terrell Davis, #12, 1995

I'd guess that a lot of these guys won league championships for their owners without being anointed the "starter from the onset while getting the bulk of the work."

This is correct. I wasn't speaking from any data backup - just off the cuff.My point was too brief - I should have said something more along the lines of "it would significantly help if they were anointed the starter Week 1". My statement about getting the "bulk of the work" still stands - again, haven't done the data mining - but in the cases listed above, the rookie RB likely led the team in touches, and most likely by a significant margin.

I do not believe that any of the RB rookie class in 2006 will lead their team in touches by a significant margin.

Now that I've put that out there, let's see what the data says.

 

[Chris Smith]

I don't think any of them have an excellent shot at being top ten this year. However the players on the cusp of it appear to be

Addai

Benson

and

Bush...

Addai is obviously in a great position to shine but James struggled with a low YPC last season on the Colts and Addai is far from a sure thing...

Benson will have a great shot at top ten if Thomas Jones is traded but that doesn't appear likely so he will have to share touches.

Reggie Bush has an outside shot due to his ability to take the ball to the house from anywhere on the field. He may do more with 200 carries and 60 receptions than other running backs do with 350 touches.

 

[gman8343]

Addai is obviously in a great position to shine but James struggled with a low YPC last season on the Colts and Addai is far from a sure thing...

Is 4.2 considered low? I would have thought that was relatively decent, though I guess Edge is used to a higher ypc.

 

[The Redbeard]

Since 1990, 4 rookies have made the top-10 (using standard FBG scoring) without being the starter at the beginning of the season, nor playing a full 16 game schedule:

Clinton Portis, #4, 2002

Mike Anderson, #4, 2000

Fred Taylor, #4, 1998

Ricky Watters, #8, 1992

Additionally, another 5 RBs finished in the 11-14 range while meeting the same criteria:

Domanick Davis, #14, 2003

Domanic Rhodes, #11, 2001

Anthony Thomas, #13, 2001

Olandis Gary, #14, 1999

Terrell Davis, #12, 1995

I'd guess that a lot of these guys won league championships for their owners without being anointed the "starter from the onset while getting the bulk of the work."



Tough to speak to any of this until camp/preseason is in full swing. I know that for me - I saw Portis run against the 49ers in the final preseason game of his rookie year and proceeded to draft him in the 4th round. Not trying to pat myself on the back - but just pointing out that in the case of Addai and Benson, they are in offenses where even only starting from week 4 on (a la Portis) could give them an opportunity to be in the top 10 similar to Portis circa '02. Maroney and Williams probably need injury help, but I'm not willing to completely dismiss the possibility that one of these young runners could be very special. It does happen and I will be more likely to take a flier on one of the youngsters and their upside over Ahman and his quad or CMart and his white beard.