Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
Which of these pitchers are you buying low? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter shadyridr
- Start date
Limp Ditka
Footballguy
None of them. Think they're all in for down seasons.
If I had to rate them
Ubaldo
Latos
Gallardo
Liriano
Dempster
If I had to rate them
Ubaldo
Latos
Gallardo
Liriano
Dempster
Limp Ditka
Footballguy
I also thought they were all over-valued going into the year, outside of Gallardo, and was able to avoid all of them in my drafts, outside of Gallardo
Really just had a feeling he'd take that next step this year, but it's not happening.
Thought Latos had the Verducci Effect written all over him (Hi dpark, don't care what you think). Especially since he's made the list two years in a row. Plus, he really, really faded down the stretch last year. A player like Bumgarner, who's also on the list, I would have been more inclined to go after since he seem to get stronger as the year / post season wore on.
Dempster can be a solid back of the rotation guy in 12 team leagues, but he has Cub on him
Ubaldo wasn't going to repeat his first half and without that his value is nowhere near where is ADP was. I did keep Ubaldo in one league as a 6th round pick, but there was value there as opposed to the 3/4 rounds he was going in.
Liriano, just one of those guys that I don't think is as good as he really probably is. I've never drafted him and doubt I ever will.
Really just had a feeling he'd take that next step this year, but it's not happening.
Thought Latos had the Verducci Effect written all over him (Hi dpark, don't care what you think). Especially since he's made the list two years in a row. Plus, he really, really faded down the stretch last year. A player like Bumgarner, who's also on the list, I would have been more inclined to go after since he seem to get stronger as the year / post season wore on.
Dempster can be a solid back of the rotation guy in 12 team leagues, but he has Cub on him
Ubaldo wasn't going to repeat his first half and without that his value is nowhere near where is ADP was. I did keep Ubaldo in one league as a 6th round pick, but there was value there as opposed to the 3/4 rounds he was going in.
Liriano, just one of those guys that I don't think is as good as he really probably is. I've never drafted him and doubt I ever will.
Dr. Awesome
Footballguy
Eephus
Footballguy
I'd probably flip flop Latos and Gallardo but they're in a pretty close tier. Both are well under Jimenez. I would steer clear of trading for Liriano and Dempster but if they were on the waiver wire and I had a free spot, I'd take a flyer
Dr. Awesome
Footballguy
Yeah, I'd definitely snag any of them if the cost was free (or virtually free). I just wouldn't go after any of these guys as anything more than a throw in or burning a ww claim.
Smack Tripper
Footballguy
I don't like Latos getting Verducci effected(I don't know if he technically qualifies but he's a young guy who got a lot of work last year). That said, I like his ballpark. Haven't seen him throw.
The only one of these guys I own is Gallardo, and thats in one of my two leagues. Nothing I've seen has me itching him to acquire him in the other. Really looks lifeless, and I don't think there will be an answer but I"m too pig headed to cut him because of percieved value.
Lirano, don't know whats up there, haven't seen him throw, the Twins may have seen the smoke and mirrors finally fizzle this year but never count them out. I don't know if they'll have enough O to really make Lirano juicy even if he does get it going. But something tells me if the Yanks bought low, he might find some adrenline to get going again. Based on raw talent, I have to put him behind Latos as a buy low guy.
Ubaldo would be the obvious choice but that was a big workload last year. Redraft he's 3rd on the list, keeper I might even go with him second.
Dempster is probably an underrated guy but that won't stop me from underrating him. He's never done it for me, last based on raw ability.
I would also add to this list:
-Edwin Jackson
-Cliff Lee(owners might not be thrilled with his line, but who knows what his ceiling is)
-
The only one of these guys I own is Gallardo, and thats in one of my two leagues. Nothing I've seen has me itching him to acquire him in the other. Really looks lifeless, and I don't think there will be an answer but I"m too pig headed to cut him because of percieved value.
Lirano, don't know whats up there, haven't seen him throw, the Twins may have seen the smoke and mirrors finally fizzle this year but never count them out. I don't know if they'll have enough O to really make Lirano juicy even if he does get it going. But something tells me if the Yanks bought low, he might find some adrenline to get going again. Based on raw talent, I have to put him behind Latos as a buy low guy.
Ubaldo would be the obvious choice but that was a big workload last year. Redraft he's 3rd on the list, keeper I might even go with him second.
Dempster is probably an underrated guy but that won't stop me from underrating him. He's never done it for me, last based on raw ability.
I would also add to this list:
-Edwin Jackson
-Cliff Lee(owners might not be thrilled with his line, but who knows what his ceiling is)
-
Northern Voice
Footballguy
Limp Ditka
Footballguy
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
87 mph fastball/81 mph change baffling the Sux tonight? I liked your earlier list, but Ubaldo is well above the others IMO. Latos off to a rough start again tonight, I just traded for him too.Still don't like him
SuperAwesomeDude
Footballguy
id still buy gallardo at .50/1.00
SuperAwesomeDude
Footballguy
just offered the guy torii hunter and j garcia for gallardo. thats 50cents right?
the moops
Footballguy
dparker713
Footballguy
Its not what I think. Its what I can prove, and what you can't.As for the list. Im concerned about Ubaldo's drop in velocity. The first start back from the DL he picked it back to about last year's level, but then it slid again in his next start. Latos is also down about 2 MPH off his 4 seamer from last year and over 1 mph from his 2 seamer - which he's currently throwing significantly less.Liriano, I think has serious problems despite last night's effort. His K and BB rates are both going in the wrong direction and the weird thing is that he seems to have traded his 2 seamer for a 4 seamer. That shold increase strikeouts and velocity, instead both have fallen.Gallardo has been using his slider more, but in general it looks like a sample size issue and also the realization that he's probably never taking that next step. It just doesn't look like he's ever going to get more control.I think Dempster is mainly a sample size issue as well. His HR/flyball rate is ridiculously high and most of his underlying stats are fairly similar to last season, though he has changed his pitch selection some which bears watching.Now, its worth noting that its fairly common for velocities to start the season down. In general, pitchers build up strength over the course of the season, but 2 mph is a big deal so its something to keep an eye on.
Limp Ditka
Footballguy
Here's what I can prove. I know what practices I follow when it comes to drafting arms and a significant workload increase is something that I try to avoid when drafting my teams.
Right now, at least for this season, this is looking like a pretty wise thing to do.
For the sake of argument, let's use this year's Verducci list....
Madison Bumgarner, SF - 4.75 ERA / 1.52 WHIP / K rate stable
Alex Sanabia, Fla. - Strained forearm. Hasn't pitched this year
Matt Latos, SD - 4.55 ERA / 1.30 WHIP / K rate up
David Price, TB - 3.95 ERA / 1.27 WHIP / K rate down more than 1.5 per 9
Brandon Beachy, Atl. - Looks good, improving. But small sample for 2010. 3.47 ERA / 0.99 WHIP / K rate stable
Phil Hughes, NYY - Do I even need to put numbers down here? Plus he's hurt
Gio Gonzalez, Oak. - Looks good, 2.70 ERA / 1.34 WHIP / K rate slightly up
Brett Cecil, Tor. - 6.86 ERA / 1.67 WHIP / K rate up
Dillon Gee, NYM - Only threw 33 MLB innings last year, but his ERA is up / WHIP is stable / K rate up
Travis Wood, Cin - 6.82 ERA / 1.55 WHIP / K rate stable
Ivan Nova, NYY - 5.14 ERA / 1.61 WHIP / K Rate stable
About 1/5 of the way through the season and 8 of 11 pitchers are showing signs of regression or have fallen flat on their face. Only one (Beachy) has improved. Gio looks stable. I don't really know how to classify Gee. I guess you could call him stable.
Do these guys have a chance to improve throughout the year? Of course they do. But if I drafted these guys, I'm saddled with arms that have value that less than what I got them for on draft day.
dparker713
Footballguy
First off, these are all extremely small samples. Second, most of those guys outperformed their peripherals last season.
Third, regression should be the expected outcome. Regression to the mean is the logical explanation for pitchers with career years failing back to Earth. Not some mythical 30 inning increase for pitchers under 25.
Finally, injury rates for starters are ridiculously high. Anywhere from 25-50% depending on age and injury history. 2 out of 11 on the self is entirely inline with expectations.
The Verducci Effect has been studied many times, and each time the studies showed no observed effect. The premise was derived from anecdotal evidence and persists due to selective memory.
SuperAwesomeDude
Footballguy
hes been pretty good his last 2 outings
Limp Ditka
Footballguy
First: To be honest, I don't care about the size of the sample. If I got these guys on draft day, I'm more than likely f'ed today based on their current values / performances. It's really that plain and simple. I avoided each and every one of them and guess what, I'm not f'ed.Second: Most of those peripherals you're saying they outperformed are from small sample sizes if not non-existent samples. I mean are you really telling me that Travis Wood outperformed his peripherals? You can't have it both ways.
Third: Verducci Effect has nothing to do with career years, it has to do with extended workloads. And while some of these guys got the extended workload due to having 'career years', there's nothing out there that says those years can't be repeated. Regression doesn't have to happen, especially at an age that is below the pitcher's prime years. And considering most of these guys have no choice but to have pitched their "career years", since it's the only year they have pitched at the MLB level, I'll just chalk that up as a stupid argument from you that has no validity.
Finally: Yes the injuries are right in line with the norms. It's a damn shame we're talking about both injuries and regression.
I call it Verducci effect because it's convenient term that most are familiar with, but it's something I started looking at a long time ago. It wasn't as age oriented, but as a habit, I've always tried to avoid pitchers with extended workloads or pitchers that pitched late into the post season unless they had a track record that proves they can handle it.
There's more than a few titles out there with my name on it and I know it's because of my practices when it comes to drafting arms. So like I said from the get go. I don't care what you think. I KNOW what works for me.
SuperAwesomeDude
Footballguy
youre logged into the wrong account, fin
Limp Ditka
Footballguy
I blame the drugs.
dparker713
Footballguy
We should just leave it at that.'Limp Ditka said:
SuperAwesomeDude
Footballguy
how long can you keep? at what cost?'BigA said:
BigA
Footballguy
keep as long as you want no cost
SuperAwesomeDude
Footballguy
do it, hes a mauer type catcher talent. another pitcher will come along
Limp Ditka
Footballguy
About 2/3 of the way through the season, there's a whole lot of bad here.Madison Bumgarner, SFG - 3.80 ERA / 1.30 WHIP / K rate up
Alex Sanabia, FLA - Strained Forearm, hasn't pitched this year
Matt Latos, SD - 3.94 ERA / 1.31 WHIP / K Rate down
David Price, TB - 3.77 ERA / 1.11 WHIP / K Rate Stable
Brandon Beachy, ATL - Only started 3 games last year, so hard to compare stats. 3.27 ERA / 1.11 WHIP / K Rate up - Has looked brilliant at times. Oblique injury really has slowed him down.
Phil Hughes, NYY - 6.93 ERA / 1.67 WHIP / K Rate way down
Gio Gonzalez, OAK - 2.84 ERA / 1.32 WHIP / K Rate up over 1K per 9 from last year - Has had a good year. Seems to be falling apart down the stretch though
Brett Cecil, TOR - 4.34 ERA / 1.37 WHIP / K rate up - Numbers are up a bit, but pretty much right on par with last year. Only 10 starts on the year though compared to 28 last year since he spent about 2 months in AAA because he sucked.
Dillon Gee, NYM - only started 5 games last year, so hard to compare stats. 3.69 ERA / 1.20 WHIP / K Rate up
Travis Wood - 5.11 ERA / 1.50 WHIP / K Rate Down Numbers regressed across the board. In AAA
Ivan Nova - 4.01 ERA / 1.44 WHIP / K Rate down - Spent about a month in AAA
2 pitchers hurt
3 spent a significant amount time in AAA this year
9 of 10 pitchers that have pitched this year have an ERA higher than last year
4 of those 10 have a higher WHIP
4 of those 10 have seen their K/9 rate regress.
Dr. Awesome
Footballguy
It's the belief pitchers who make too big a jump in innings pitched from one year to the next are liable to get hurt. At least that's my understanding.
dparker713
Footballguy
Its actually just the belief that pithers under 25 that had a 30+ innings jump will regress. Well, duh. Its totally baseless. Look at that list above, he's somehow claiming that 3 of 11 young pitchers injured is out of proportion with the rest of the league and that 4 out of 10 regressing in rate stats is evidence of some correlation between jumping 30+ innings for pitchers under 25 and regression in performance. Its not. Every rigorous study has failed to find any such correlation. Its just the expected regression for guys that had just had career highs in IP.
Last edited by a moderator:
Dr. Awesome
Footballguy
I also think he's full of it. But a lot of people are believers.
