Which Players get too much love on this board? (1 Viewer)

[BigJim®]

I disagree on the MBIII and Sidney Rice nominations here.

MBIII has [in retrospect] been worthy of being drafted where he's going this year each of the past 2 seasons... lower half of the 1st round. Now that he's getting an opportunity to increase his carries, he's overrated? Not following that logic at all. Don't pretend Barber hasn't already lived up to his current ADP. If anything, this guy has proven to be vastly underrated 2 years running and is now being being ranked more appropriately based on actual performance; moreso than a lot of the unproven flavor of the month RB's pimped on this site anyway. Specifically on EBF's comment about MBIII not being an "elite RB"... this opinion is clearly not based on production, so I'm curious as to the basis for such a slight. Suggesting that the Cowboys would pay him $19 mil in guarantees with the intention to give a material amount of carries to [what appears to be] a 3rd down profile rookie seems like there is an entirely different player being overrated here. It was very telling that the Cowboys passed on Mendenhall to take Jones, IMHO. I see little likelihood MBIII fails to live up to his top 10 RB billing in this Dallas offense, even in the event he maintains a 210 carry workload, which is his absolute floor. To me he seems like one of the safer fringe top-tier RBs.

On Sidney Rice, what is this guy's ADP? Are people suggesting this guy is being considered a top 20 redraft player? Top 35? If so, what's the basis for that... antsports? I'd be curious to have this discussion after seeing the 10 WRs sandwiched around Rice's ADP in a redraft. If people are suggesting he is overrated in a dynasty format, again I'd like to know what ADP we're talking about and which WRs are being taken in that vicinity. If the analysis is Sidney Rice vs. the like of Bobby Engram or Darrell Jackson, to me that discussion is a non-starter in dynasty formats.

ETA: My own overrated [redraft] list is:

* M.Turner [new team, new role]

* A.Johnson [has never lived up to current ADP]

* C.Johnson [an outstanding WR1, three times a season]

* D.Garrard [the stats will never live up to the billing he gets here]

* W.McGahee [after Fargas and W.Parker, arguably next RB with decent risk of rookie impact]

* J.Lewis [personal opinion that we saw a dead cat bounce in 2007]

* B.Jacobs [injury risk is beyond debate. If being 265 pounds was the secret to taking an NFL pounding, he'd be a god. He's proven otherwise, he's just a bigger target to hit and is unreliable as a RB2].

 

[maxwelledison]

Jonathan Stewart

Andre Johnson

Michael Turner

 

[Andy Herron]

Vince Young.

 

[newteech]

As a listener of The Audible, let me submit:

Lorenzo Booker. Marshawn Lynch

fixed.Lotta love for a guy who had a whopping three games last year with over 100 yards rushing.

 

[EBF]

I disagree on the MBIII and Sidney Rice nominations here. MBIII has [in retrospect] been worthy of being drafted where he's going this year each of the past 2 seasons... lower half of the 1st round. Now that he's getting an opportunity to increase his carries, he's overrated? Not following that logic at all. Don't pretend Barber hasn't already lived up to his current ADP. If anything, this guy has proven to be vastly underrated 2 years running and is now being being ranked more appropriately based on actual performance; moreso than a lot of the unproven flavor of the month RB's pimped on this site anyway. Specifically on EBF's comment about MBIII not being an "elite RB"... this opinion is clearly not based on production, so I'm curious as to the basis for such a slight. Suggesting that the Cowboys would pay him $19 mil in guarantees with the intention to give a material amount of carries to [what appears to be] a 3rd down profile rookie seems like there is an entirely different player being overrated here. It was very telling that the Cowboys passed on Mendenhall to take Jones, IMHO. I see little likelihood MBIII fails to live up to his top 10 RB billing in this Dallas offense, even in the event he maintains a 210 carry workload, which is his absolute floor. To me he seems like one of the safer fringe top-tier RBs.

He's currently ranked at RB5 in the staff dynasty list. That's awfully high for a RBBC guy who has never had more than 204 carries in a season. He's a good player, but I don't see him consistently living up top 5-6 billing on 220-250 carries per season.

 

[gianmarco]

As a listener of The Audible, let me submit:

Lorenzo Booker. Marshawn Lynch

fixed.Lotta love for a guy who had a whopping three games last year with over 100 yards rushing.

COMPLETELY forgot about him. He's my #1 selection for this thread. Almost universal love for him at FBG with very lofty expectations.

 

[BigJim®]

Well, I have a long-established opinion on Barber so please take these retorts as counter opinions and not disrespect to your own, which you are entitled to.

He's currently ranked at RB5 in the staff dynasty list. That's awfully high for a RBBC guy who has never had more than 204 carries in a season.

He has nearly lived up to that ADP for 2 consecutive years. There is every expectation he will again this season barring something unforeseen when his competition is 2 unseasoned rookie RBs. The highest rated of those rookies has high carries of 133 and 154 in college, has not proven he can block in the NFL as needed to be a legit 3rd down threat, much less spending more downs on the field, and has not proven he can handle even the college level workload, yet. I'd be more worried about Barber if he was competing with a vet like J.Jones this year.

He's a good player, but I don't see him consistently living up top 5-6 billing on 220-250 carries per season.

I'll respectfully degree categorizing Barber as a "good" player. Seems like a lingering stigmatism to me that he should have bucked by now. I'm not sure the basis of your skepticism he'll "consistently" live up to that billing for dynasty considerations. If that is ability based, I think his performace speaks otherwise [4.8 YPC 2 consecutive season]. If it is mentality based, I couldn't disagree more. Having seen this guy exceed expectations from his first game in college, IMHO he has the mental makeup to work harder to prove himself vs. sitting on a fat new contract. In light of the $19 million guarantees he's been given over the next 3 years, at least the team that writes out his paychecks thinks he'll live up to that expense.

 

[CentralPA]

As a listener of The Audible, let me submit:Lorenzo Booker.

Will be a back i'm aiming for in the mid rounds, \if he lasts that long. Not sure where he'll be targeted at, will have to check my handy dany FootballGuys mag. With Westbrook almost a lock to miss at least sometime (he always does, no matter what) he'll be a great pick up for RB depth.

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

The competition just thinned a little for Mike Walker. Now he just has to beat Northcutt, Williamson and Brousard to be the #3 WR for a run-first and run-second offense.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

some guy named Mike Walker in Jacksonville

The competition just thinned a little for Mike Walker. Now he just has to beat Northcutt, Williamson and Brousard to be the #3 WR for a run-first and run-second offense.

LOL

 

[Liquid Tension]

Lets see,It's either MJD or J. Norwood,or maybe MJD or J. Norwood,or lets try, MJD or J. Norwood.I never saw anything like it in my life... Career backups get more love on this board than half of the starting RB's in the NFL

I wouldn't call MJD a career backup. You'd have to add the king of the career backups and that's Michael Turner, although since he's finally getting his chance I don't see all the Burner Turner advocates as much. I'm going to have to dig up some of these old threads where everyone was claiming Turner is almost as good as Lt2.

I think the main reason is that Turner went to Atlanta and they are at least a full year away from being mediocre. If Turner were in Houston I think the hype would be bigger. Turner is at least as good as Graham or Grant who were productive.

 

[spec1alk]

 

[travdogg]

Larry "freaking" Johnson

Not sure if common comments like "He sucks" "He blows" "He is over-rated" "He's a bum" qualify as being over-rated, he seems to be one of the most dissed players in recent memory.

This is kind of a joke from another thread. Sorry for not mentioning that. I don't like him but I wouldn't say he is pimped the much on this board.I love S-Jax and I think he will have a good year but for people putting him about #3 or #4 when he has had one injury free season out of three being the starterand one top ten finish as well out of three years being the starter...well I think it might be alittle high..

So basically another way to say this is that when he's been healthy, he's never finished outside of the top 10 right? It cuts both ways, and he is a beast. When I project, I do it for a 16 game season. I then go back through and try to do a few adjustments based on my perceived risk of injury for a player. But there is no question that Jackson deserves to be near the top somewhere.

By that logic Donovan McNabb and Todd Heap should each be one of the top-3 players taken at their position.

 

[joffer]

Andre Johnson being touted top 5. Best finish ever 18th. Ya, ya, ya, well if Kijana Carter didn't have injuries he'd have been great too.

That's who I came here to post. I love his talent, but I don't think he's ever lived up to his ADP.

I kinda think Adrian Peterson is over valued. When has he finished a whole football season even in college? Injuries are tough to predict, except maybe Adrian Peterson? I guess thats a bit over the top, but still i think it should temper some of the expectations everyone has for him...He is a talent thats for sure.

He's a PPG machine, so he's worth the risk that he gets hurt.

you may want to check out AJ's ppg from last year.

 

[FUBAR]

I haven't forgotten Glenn, but is he healthy enough to make a difference this year? BTW, if you want a guy whose been overrated, there's your guy (although he isn't right now, because nobody thinks he's worth squat today). 12 year career, 3 of those he actually played 16 games, 4 of which he went over 1,000 yards.

Glenn was never thought highly of, though. I would argue that he's been underrated for a long time. Outside of a blip in Green Bay, when Glenn's been healthy, he's been awesome. He's produced like an elite WR (not necessarily fantasy, but reality) and is rarely viewed as one.

I guess it depends on your circle, but in mine he's touted as equal to Galloway. I just don't think he's that good. Deep threat that can't stay healthy and I won't count on him for 2008.

 

[JamesTheScot]

MBIII has [in retrospect] been worthy of being drafted where he's going this year each of the past 2 seasons... lower half of the 1st round. Now that he's getting an opportunity to increase his carries, he's overrated? Not following that logic at all. Don't pretend Barber hasn't already lived up to his current ADP. If anything, this guy has proven to be vastly underrated 2 years running and is now being being ranked more appropriately based on actual performance; moreso than a lot of the unproven flavor of the month RB's pimped on this site anyway. Specifically on EBF's comment about MBIII not being an "elite RB"... this opinion is clearly not based on production, so I'm curious as to the basis for such a slight. Suggesting that the Cowboys would pay him $19 mil in guarantees with the intention to give a material amount of carries to [what appears to be] a 3rd down profile rookie seems like there is an entirely different player being overrated here. It was very telling that the Cowboys passed on Mendenhall to take Jones, IMHO. I see little likelihood MBIII fails to live up to his top 10 RB billing in this Dallas offense, even in the event he maintains a 210 carry workload, which is his absolute floor. To me he seems like one of the safer fringe top-tier RBs.

I am not a MBIII lover by any means. But this is my take as well...especially as regards the impact of Felix Jones. I'm definately buying MBIII stock this season if I can get it for an appropriate price.So for that matter, I'll throw out Felix Jones on the list of over-rated players.

 

[switz]

MB3 He's a good player, but he's not an elite dynasty back. He'll lose touches to Felix and he could be in for a dropoff if Owens breaks down and the Dallas offense hits the wall. I don't think he's a guy you can build an FF team around.

Immediately who I thought of when I saw the subject line.

 

[cstu]

Andre Johnson being touted top 5. Best finish ever 18th. Ya, ya, ya, well if Kijana Carter didn't have injuries he'd have been great too.

That's who I came here to post. I love his talent, but I don't think he's ever lived up to his ADP.

I kinda think Adrian Peterson is over valued. When has he finished a whole football season even in college? Injuries are tough to predict, except maybe Adrian Peterson? I guess thats a bit over the top, but still i think it should temper some of the expectations everyone has for him...He is a talent thats for sure.

He's a PPG machine, so he's worth the risk that he gets hurt.

you may want to check out AJ's ppg from last year.

I think you mixed up AJ and AP.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Lets see,It's either MJD or J. Norwood,or maybe MJD or J. Norwood,or lets try, MJD or J. Norwood.I never saw anything like it in my life... Career backups get more love on this board than half of the starting RB's in the NFL

I wouldn't call MJD a career backup. You'd have to add the king of the career backups and that's Michael Turner, although since he's finally getting his chance I don't see all the Burner Turner advocates as much. I'm going to have to dig up some of these old threads where everyone was claiming Turner is almost as good as Lt2.

I think the main reason is that Turner went to Atlanta and they are at least a full year away from being mediocre. If Turner were in Houston I think the hype would be bigger. Turner is at least as good as Graham or Grant who were productive.

People were claiming Turner was a heck of a lot better than Graham or Grant whom most people didn't even know who they were before last year. I'm talking about Turner being as good or just a hair less than LT who is the best running back on the planet.I understand your point but if he did blow up this year, those same people would be all over Turner again and the supposed being in Atlanta problem would be out the window.If you look at Norwood's average last year in Atlanta as a running back, that'll give you an idea of what they may be able to rush for down there.

 

[cstu]

As a listener of The Audible, let me submit:

Lorenzo Booker. Marshawn Lynch

fixed.Lotta love for a guy who had a whopping three games last year with over 100 yards rushing.

COMPLETELY forgot about him. He's my #1 selection for this thread. Almost universal love for him at FBG with very lofty expectations.

What's not to like about a 22 year old RB who rushed for 1100 yards his rookie season and has no competition for carries?

 

[switz]

Lets see,It's either MJD or J. Norwood,or maybe MJD or J. Norwood,or lets try, MJD or J. Norwood.I never saw anything like it in my life... Career backups get more love on this board than half of the starting RB's in the NFL

I wouldn't call MJD a career backup. You'd have to add the king of the career backups and that's Michael Turner, although since he's finally getting his chance I don't see all the Burner Turner advocates as much. I'm going to have to dig up some of these old threads where everyone was claiming Turner is almost as good as Lt2.

I think the main reason is that Turner went to Atlanta and they are at least a full year away from being mediocre. If Turner were in Houston I think the hype would be bigger. Turner is at least as good as Graham or Grant who were productive.

People were claiming Turner was a heck of a lot better than Graham or Grant whom most people didn't even know who they were before last year. I'm talking about Turner being as good or just a hair less than LT who is the best running back on the planet.I understand your point but if he did blow up this year, those same people would be all over Turner again and the supposed being in Atlanta problem would be out the window.If you look at Norwood's average last year in Atlanta as a running back, that'll give you an idea of what they may be able to rush for down there.

M'eh... I still expect Turner to be explosive in ATL. I also expect Norwood to get a lot of work. Both have the talent, and while I don't think the situation is the best, talent is still going to be evident.As for anyone thinking Turner was as good as LT? No one really thinks that. I'm sure whoever said it was just trying to knock down LT to pry him away form someone on the cheap.

 

[cstu]

Lets see,It's either MJD or J. Norwood,or maybe MJD or J. Norwood,or lets try, MJD or J. Norwood.I never saw anything like it in my life... Career backups get more love on this board than half of the starting RB's in the NFL

I wouldn't call MJD a career backup. You'd have to add the king of the career backups and that's Michael Turner, although since he's finally getting his chance I don't see all the Burner Turner advocates as much. I'm going to have to dig up some of these old threads where everyone was claiming Turner is almost as good as Lt2.

I think the main reason is that Turner went to Atlanta and they are at least a full year away from being mediocre. If Turner were in Houston I think the hype would be bigger. Turner is at least as good as Graham or Grant who were productive.

People were claiming Turner was a heck of a lot better than Graham or Grant whom most people didn't even know who they were before last year. I'm talking about Turner being as good or just a hair less than LT who is the best running back on the planet.I understand your point but if he did blow up this year, those same people would be all over Turner again and the supposed being in Atlanta problem would be out the window.If you look at Norwood's average last year in Atlanta as a running back, that'll give you an idea of what they may be able to rush for down there.

I like Turner quite a bit, but I think he's going to lose touches to Norwood because the defense is so bad and they will be in a lot of passing situations.

 

[SSOG]

That just couldn't be any more wrong (at least in my personal experience). I've been trying to peddle TO in two different dynasties for a buffalo nickle all offseason. Even the worst owners in my league aren't willing to pay what Owens would be worth to me; even if he just has ONE MORE 8+ TD season in him. ***Which I'll freely admit he might NOT have left in him.

I've had several owners contact me saying they were looking to acquire a top-12 dynasty WR. In all cases, the owner said they valued Owens as such. I wound up dealing him for Gates straight up. There are definitely a lot of owners out there who really do value him that highly.

For Gates STRAIGHT UP!?!? Wow. That just floors me. The best I've been able to do is a high 3rd round rookie pick. SSOG - you mentioned earlier, T.O could put up career best numbers the next 5 years for a WR his age and he still wouldn't be worth his current value. Do you happen to have those numbers handy? (Even just the career best #'s for a 34 and 35 yo WR would be good) I'm in the middle of writing an article right now and touching on the pitfalls of T.O. with a high 2nd round pick and I have a feeling they'd help back me up.

The historical data dominator is a fantastic tool for this. Set the parameters to "WRs only", "35 to 46", Statistic #1 to "Fantasy Points", Sort By to "Statistic #1, Descending", and display "receiving stats". Voila, every season by any WR Owens' age or older, with the best at the top.

Lets see,

It's either MJD or J. Norwood,

or maybe MJD or J. Norwood,

or lets try, MJD or J. Norwood.

I never saw anything like it in my life... Career backups get more love on this board than half of the starting RB's in the NFL

In MJD's case, if he gets more love than half of the starting RBs in the NFL, it's because he outproduces two thirds of the starting RBs in the NFL.

two thirds huh? wow

Yup. He's finished his two seasons right around fantasy RB10 both times, which means he outperformed 22 other starting RBs. As a backup, he's outperforming 2/3rds of the NFL starters (including the starter on his own team).

I haven't forgotten Glenn, but is he healthy enough to make a difference this year? BTW, if you want a guy whose been overrated, there's your guy (although he isn't right now, because nobody thinks he's worth squat today). 12 year career, 3 of those he actually played 16 games, 4 of which he went over 1,000 yards.

Glenn was never thought highly of, though. I would argue that he's been underrated for a long time. Outside of a blip in Green Bay, when Glenn's been healthy, he's been awesome. He's produced like an elite WR (not necessarily fantasy, but reality) and is rarely viewed as one.

I guess it depends on your circle, but in mine he's touted as equal to Galloway. I just don't think he's that good. Deep threat that can't stay healthy and I won't count on him for 2008.

If healthy, I think Glenn is as good of a receiver as Galloway for NFL purposes.

 

[trader jake]

The players that get too much love on this board?

Rookies.

 

[FUBAR]

That just couldn't be any more wrong (at least in my personal experience). I've been trying to peddle TO in two different dynasties for a buffalo nickle all offseason. Even the worst owners in my league aren't willing to pay what Owens would be worth to me; even if he just has ONE MORE 8+ TD season in him. ***Which I'll freely admit he might NOT have left in him.

I've had several owners contact me saying they were looking to acquire a top-12 dynasty WR. In all cases, the owner said they valued Owens as such. I wound up dealing him for Gates straight up. There are definitely a lot of owners out there who really do value him that highly.

For Gates STRAIGHT UP!?!? Wow. That just floors me. The best I've been able to do is a high 3rd round rookie pick. SSOG - you mentioned earlier, T.O could put up career best numbers the next 5 years for a WR his age and he still wouldn't be worth his current value. Do you happen to have those numbers handy? (Even just the career best #'s for a 34 and 35 yo WR would be good) I'm in the middle of writing an article right now and touching on the pitfalls of T.O. with a high 2nd round pick and I have a feeling they'd help back me up.

The historical data dominator is a fantastic tool for this. Set the parameters to "WRs only", "35 to 46", Statistic #1 to "Fantasy Points", Sort By to "Statistic #1, Descending", and display "receiving stats". Voila, every season by any WR Owens' age or older, with the best at the top.

Lets see,

It's either MJD or J. Norwood,

or maybe MJD or J. Norwood,

or lets try, MJD or J. Norwood.

I never saw anything like it in my life... Career backups get more love on this board than half of the starting RB's in the NFL

In MJD's case, if he gets more love than half of the starting RBs in the NFL, it's because he outproduces two thirds of the starting RBs in the NFL.

two thirds huh? wow

Yup. He's finished his two seasons right around fantasy RB10 both times, which means he outperformed 22 other starting RBs. As a backup, he's outperforming 2/3rds of the NFL starters (including the starter on his own team).

I haven't forgotten Glenn, but is he healthy enough to make a difference this year? BTW, if you want a guy whose been overrated, there's your guy (although he isn't right now, because nobody thinks he's worth squat today). 12 year career, 3 of those he actually played 16 games, 4 of which he went over 1,000 yards.

Glenn was never thought highly of, though. I would argue that he's been underrated for a long time. Outside of a blip in Green Bay, when Glenn's been healthy, he's been awesome. He's produced like an elite WR (not necessarily fantasy, but reality) and is rarely viewed as one.

I guess it depends on your circle, but in mine he's touted as equal to Galloway. I just don't think he's that good. Deep threat that can't stay healthy and I won't count on him for 2008.

If healthy, I think Glenn is as good of a receiver as Galloway for NFL purposes.

I disagree, but you said the key anyway.Galloway has 8 seasons over 900 yards, Glenn has 5.

Galloway averages an extra yard per reception, with careers of 12 and 13 years, that's significant.

Plus, I suppose it's arguable, but I'd say Glenn has had better QBs for his career.

In all, the spread may not be HUGE, but Galloway is a better deep threat.

 

[simmonjm]

MB3

He's a good player, but he's not an elite dynasty back. He'll lose touches to Felix and he could be in for a dropoff if Owens breaks down and the Dallas offense hits the wall. I don't think he's a guy you can build an FF team around.

This is a common misconception. Last year the Dallas did in fact struggle when Owens went down but everyone forgets that Romo was dealing with a thumb injury that affected his throwing velocity and accuracy. Even without Owens I think this Dallas is top 5 in the NFC.

Whoa...so who is going to catch 15 plus TD's? Owens is an elite big time player and if he is not in the mix Dallas as an offense will have the vertical game disappear as well as any hope of a super bowl berth. Are you serious?

Between Crayton and Witten they accounted for over 15 tds. As mentioned earlier in this thread Terry Glenn is still around, and Dallas has two guys who can stretch the field in Miles Austin and Isaah Stanback granted they are not proven but to say that any hopes of a superbowl berth would disappear without TO is not sensible especially considering how weak the NFC conference as a whole is.

 

[SSOG]

As a listener of The Audible, let me submit:

Lorenzo Booker. Marshawn Lynch

fixed.Lotta love for a guy who had a whopping three games last year with over 100 yards rushing.

COMPLETELY forgot about him. He's my #1 selection for this thread. Almost universal love for him at FBG with very lofty expectations.

What's not to like about a 22 year old RB who rushed for 1100 yards his rookie season and has no competition for carries?

The 4.0 yards per carry, for starters. I'm an owner, so I want to drink the kool aid, but I haven't seen enough talent from him yet to make me think he'll be anything other than another solid starter-caliber RB, nothing special. Not that those guys don't have value, but right now, he's looking to me like the second coming of Willis McGahee.

 

[David Yudkin]

That just couldn't be any more wrong (at least in my personal experience). I've been trying to peddle TO in two different dynasties for a buffalo nickle all offseason. Even the worst owners in my league aren't willing to pay what Owens would be worth to me; even if he just has ONE MORE 8+ TD season in him. ***Which I'll freely admit he might NOT have left in him.

I've had several owners contact me saying they were looking to acquire a top-12 dynasty WR. In all cases, the owner said they valued Owens as such. I wound up dealing him for Gates straight up. There are definitely a lot of owners out there who really do value him that highly.

For Gates STRAIGHT UP!?!? Wow. That just floors me. The best I've been able to do is a high 3rd round rookie pick. SSOG - you mentioned earlier, T.O could put up career best numbers the next 5 years for a WR his age and he still wouldn't be worth his current value. Do you happen to have those numbers handy? (Even just the career best #'s for a 34 and 35 yo WR would be good) I'm in the middle of writing an article right now and touching on the pitfalls of T.O. with a high 2nd round pick and I have a feeling they'd help back me up.

35 Cris Carter 96-1274-9 181.40 36 Jerry Rice 82-1157-9 169.70

37 Charlie Joiner 61-793-6 115.30

38 Charlie Joiner 59-932-7 135.20

39 Jerry Rice 83-1139-9 167.90

40 Jerry Rice 92-1211-7 165.10

41 Jerry Rice 63-869-2 98.90

42 Jerry Rice 30-429-3 60.90

IMO, Galloway has a decent chance to set a new mark for 37 year olds. I suppose if Marvin Harrison were to get healthy and motivated, he'd have a shot at the 36 year old mark as well.

If Owens were to remain the red zone threat he's been, I could see him setting new marks for the next 4 seaosns. Since leaving SF, Owens has scored 48 TD in 51 games played. That's beyond insane. 30 TD in 31 games in Dallas.

He may be overvalued in dynasty leagues, but he certainly hasn't shown a drop off in his production yet. His age, nagging injuries, and mental state may not help him down the road, but if he stays in shape and keeps his head on straight he should be able to at least set new marks through age 38 year if he plays that long.

 

[fantasyplayer]

The players that get too much love on this board?Rookies.

 

[Liquid Tension]

Lets see,It's either MJD or J. Norwood,or maybe MJD or J. Norwood,or lets try, MJD or J. Norwood.I never saw anything like it in my life... Career backups get more love on this board than half of the starting RB's in the NFL

I wouldn't call MJD a career backup. You'd have to add the king of the career backups and that's Michael Turner, although since he's finally getting his chance I don't see all the Burner Turner advocates as much. I'm going to have to dig up some of these old threads where everyone was claiming Turner is almost as good as Lt2.

I think the main reason is that Turner went to Atlanta and they are at least a full year away from being mediocre. If Turner were in Houston I think the hype would be bigger. Turner is at least as good as Graham or Grant who were productive.

People were claiming Turner was a heck of a lot better than Graham or Grant whom most people didn't even know who they were before last year. I'm talking about Turner being as good or just a hair less than LT who is the best running back on the planet.I understand your point but if he did blow up this year, those same people would be all over Turner again and the supposed being in Atlanta problem would be out the window.If you look at Norwood's average last year in Atlanta as a running back, that'll give you an idea of what they may be able to rush for down there.

Norwood did run well for YPC but that was only on 100 carries and I believe was a little more due to teams not allowing the big pass play when he ripped off some long ones. Not trying to take anything away fro Norwood, but if he were the main guy on running plays his average would take a serious hit. I hope you are right as I have Turner in my Dynasty league as my 3rd back.

 

[Liquid Tension]

That just couldn't be any more wrong (at least in my personal experience). I've been trying to peddle TO in two different dynasties for a buffalo nickle all offseason. Even the worst owners in my league aren't willing to pay what Owens would be worth to me; even if he just has ONE MORE 8+ TD season in him. ***Which I'll freely admit he might NOT have left in him.

I've had several owners contact me saying they were looking to acquire a top-12 dynasty WR. In all cases, the owner said they valued Owens as such. I wound up dealing him for Gates straight up. There are definitely a lot of owners out there who really do value him that highly.

For Gates STRAIGHT UP!?!? Wow. That just floors me. The best I've been able to do is a high 3rd round rookie pick. SSOG - you mentioned earlier, T.O could put up career best numbers the next 5 years for a WR his age and he still wouldn't be worth his current value. Do you happen to have those numbers handy? (Even just the career best #'s for a 34 and 35 yo WR would be good) I'm in the middle of writing an article right now and touching on the pitfalls of T.O. with a high 2nd round pick and I have a feeling they'd help back me up.

35 Cris Carter 96-1274-9 181.40 36 Jerry Rice 82-1157-9 169.70

37 Charlie Joiner 61-793-6 115.30

38 Charlie Joiner 59-932-7 135.20

39 Jerry Rice 83-1139-9 167.90

40 Jerry Rice 92-1211-7 165.10

41 Jerry Rice 63-869-2 98.90

42 Jerry Rice 30-429-3 60.90

IMO, Galloway has a decent chance to set a new mark for 37 year olds. I suppose if Marvin Harrison were to get healthy and motivated, he'd have a shot at the 36 year old mark as well.

If Owens were to remain the red zone threat he's been, I could see him setting new marks for the next 4 seaosns. Since leaving SF, Owens has scored 48 TD in 51 games played. That's beyond insane. 30 TD in 31 games in Dallas.

He may be overvalued in dynasty leagues, but he certainly hasn't shown a drop off in his production yet. His age, nagging injuries, and mental state may not help him down the road, but if he stays in shape and keeps his head on straight he should be able to at least set new marks through age 38 year if he plays that long.

You see, this is why using historical data can be limiting by people who are not WATCHING the games. There needs to be a balance. Doesn't everyone think that with a better knowledge of workouts and nutrition that 35 year olds today are in much better shape than in past history? I hope the answer is yes and if so then you need to look at each situation individually and make your estimation on how much validity you put into historical data.TO is in TREMENDOUS shape and I do not see him being limited physically (he should perform well), but when you add in past injuries and the personality, i would tread lightly on putting a lot of stock into him. I would trade him if I could get value.

 

[Tanner9919]

one year wonders like:

Derrick Anderson, David Garrard, Wes Welker, Javon Walker, Mark Clayton..

veterans like:

Brian Westbrook , Steve Smith (Car - aside from one 103 catch season, the guy is nothing but a boring 84/1050/7), Andre Johnson, McNabb, MJD ( relative to his ADP) , Reggie Bush, Brandon Jacobs

 

[Zoomanji]

MB3 He's a good player, but he's not an elite dynasty back. He'll lose touches to Felix and he could be in for a dropoff if Owens breaks down and the Dallas offense hits the wall. I don't think he's a guy you can build an FF team around.

Immediately who I thought of when I saw the subject line.

Me too and his defenders in this thread prove it.

 

[bcr8f]

one year wonders likeerrick Anderson, David Garrard, Wes Welker, Javon Walker, Mark Clayton..veterans like:Brian Westbrook , Steve Smith (Car - aside from one 103 catch season, the guy is nothing but a boring 84/1050/7), Andre Johnson, McNabb, MJD ( relative to his ADP) , Reggie Bush, Brandon Jacobs

Javon was more than a one year wonder. As for Anderson, Welker and Garrard I think they'll repeat. One year wonder really applies if they fail the following year and we don't know if they will yet. I don't think they will. I'm not a fan of MJD or MBll. I don't think either is elite, but that's just my opinion. I wouldn't pick either in the first round.

 

[David Yudkin]

one year wonders likeerrick Anderson, David Garrard, Wes Welker, Javon Walker, Mark Clayton..veterans like:Brian Westbrook , Steve Smith (Car - aside from one 103 catch season, the guy is nothing but a boring 84/1050/7), Andre Johnson, McNabb, MJD ( relative to his ADP) , Reggie Bush, Brandon Jacobs

Javon was more than a one year wonder. As for Anderson, Welker and Garrard I think they'll repeat. One year wonder really applies if they fail the following year and we don't know if they will yet. I don't think they will. I'm not a fan of MJD or MBll. I don't think either is elite, but that's just my opinion. I wouldn't pick either in the first round.

I doubt I would take MJD in the first either, but he's ranked 8th and 13th in his only seasons so far. That almost aligns with MBIII, who's ranked 14th and 7th the past two seasons. Even splitting time, that's still very good production.My concern over these two is their crazy scoring ratios. Barber has scored 28 TD on 406 touches over the past two years. That's a crazy ratio. MJD is not far behind, with 24 TD on 419 touches.I am of the opinion that TDs are one of the hardest things to predict and rely upon when the workload is not consistent. Maybe either or noth of these guys will get a full time workload this year, and I'd have no problem taking them in the first round. But until I feel that they will get the rock a lot more, I'm a bit leary. I realize that may mean I won't own either of them this year, but I feel more confident in taking someone that will see the ball 300-350 times (even if it may mean he scores fewer points).I might be more apt to take MJD, as he's going as the #19 player overall compared to MBIII at #8. Portis is at #9, and I personally would never take Barber over Portis unless Clinton were maimed by a mountain lion (and maybe not even then).

 

[spec1alk]

35 Cris Carter 96-1274-9 181.40 36 Jerry Rice 82-1157-9 169.70 37 Charlie Joiner 61-793-6 115.30 38 Charlie Joiner 59-932-7 135.20 39 Jerry Rice 83-1139-9 167.90 40 Jerry Rice 92-1211-7 165.10 41 Jerry Rice 63-869-2 98.90 42 Jerry Rice 30-429-3 60.90 IMO, Galloway has a decent chance to set a new mark for 37 year olds. I suppose if Marvin Harrison were to get healthy and motivated, he'd have a shot at the 36 year old mark as well.If Owens were to remain the red zone threat he's been, I could see him setting new marks for the next 4 seaosns. Since leaving SF, Owens has scored 48 TD in 51 games played. That's beyond insane. 30 TD in 31 games in Dallas. He may be overvalued in dynasty leagues, but he certainly hasn't shown a drop off in his production yet. His age, nagging injuries, and mental state may not help him down the road, but if he stays in shape and keeps his head on straight he should be able to at least set new marks through age 38 year if he plays that long.

Harrison had a fantastic year before this last one. The droppoff for a WR can come suddenly and is very, very steep.

 

[joffer]

Andre Johnson being touted top 5. Best finish ever 18th. Ya, ya, ya, well if Kijana Carter didn't have injuries he'd have been great too.

That's who I came here to post. I love his talent, but I don't think he's ever lived up to his ADP.

I kinda think Adrian Peterson is over valued. When has he finished a whole football season even in college? Injuries are tough to predict, except maybe Adrian Peterson? I guess thats a bit over the top, but still i think it should temper some of the expectations everyone has for him...He is a talent thats for sure.

He's a PPG machine, so he's worth the risk that he gets hurt.

you may want to check out AJ's ppg from last year.

I think you mixed up AJ and AP.

nope. if one PPG machine is worth risk, why not another?

 

[H.K.]

B.Jacobs [injury risk is beyond debate. If being 265 pounds was the secret to taking an NFL pounding, he'd be a god. He's proven otherwise, he's just a bigger target to hit and is unreliable as a RB2].

Tanner9919 Today, 10:46 AM Post #82 Brandon Jacobs

Jacobs &Jennings/thread

 

[The Jacket]

By that logic Donovan McNabb and Todd Heap should each be one of the top-3 players taken at their position.

Unlike McNabb and Heap, LJ has only been injured (to the point where he's missing games) once in his entire career.

 

[spec1alk]

By that logic Donovan McNabb and Todd Heap should each be one of the top-3 players taken at their position.

Unlike McNabb and Heap, LJ has only been injured (to the point where he's missing games) once in his entire career.

Unlike McNabb and Heap, LJ has only been the starter for 2 seasons.

 

[switz]

I might be more apt to take MJD, as he's going as the #19 player overall compared to MBIII at #8. Portis is at #9, and I personally would never take Barber over Portis unless Clinton were maimed by a mountain lion (and maybe not even then).

That is hilarious... unless he were maimed by a mountain lion, and maybe not even then

 

[billymays]

matt schaub

guy hasnt done squat

 

[spy231]

In light of the $19 million guarantees he's been given over the next 3 years, at least the team that writes out his paychecks thinks he'll live up to that expense.

I am a big MB3 fan. I live in Dallas and love his running style. He is fun to watch and cheer for. I have him as my 2nd or 3rd RB in my dynasty, but dont use pay as an argument. There have been quite a few players that have not lived up to that new contract. Since I am a big fan I hope he does, but I dont think that you can use that point in an argument. I am just giving you a hard time though. I agree with the things that you were saying!keep it up guys! These are great.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

MB3 He's a good player, but he's not an elite dynasty back. He'll lose touches to Felix and he could be in for a dropoff if Owens breaks down and the Dallas offense hits the wall. I don't think he's a guy you can build an FF team around.

Immediately who I thought of when I saw the subject line.

Do we really want to go there again?MB3 is a RB1 and will be for several more years. Debate all you like, but he's a Top 10 / Round 1 pick.

 

[FUBAR]

MB3

He's a good player, but he's not an elite dynasty back. He'll lose touches to Felix and he could be in for a dropoff if Owens breaks down and the Dallas offense hits the wall. I don't think he's a guy you can build an FF team around.

Immediately who I thought of when I saw the subject line.

Do we really want to go there again?MB3 is a RB1 and will be for several more years. Debate all you like, but he's a Top 10 / Round 1 pick.

That's pretty much the point, he shouldn't be. Plus, it seems many here (could just be perception) like to rate him just below AD/LT/SJax. IMO, he's a couple tiers below.

In 3 years, he hasn't even exceeded 1,000 yards rushing.

The team just drafted another RB to use in RBBC.

Do you expect Barber to do a lot better than he did with JJones?

He's a TD machine, but do you want to rely on TDs, without yardage, as part of a RBBC, as your RB1? Even if he ends up top 10 over the season, when you're relying on TDs as much as he is, it just doesn't seem the smart play.

 

[switz]

MB3

He's a good player, but he's not an elite dynasty back. He'll lose touches to Felix and he could be in for a dropoff if Owens breaks down and the Dallas offense hits the wall. I don't think he's a guy you can build an FF team around.

Immediately who I thought of when I saw the subject line.

Do we really want to go there again?MB3 is a RB1 and will be for several more years. Debate all you like, but he's a Top 10 / Round 1 pick.

JP - you are one of the reasons that MB3 is overhyped. "We" don't need to go there... I wasn't the first, not even the second, to throw MB3's name in the ring. MB3 is a top-10 RB, maybe. But he's not a top 5-7 RB, and that's where quite a few people are ranking him.

 

[The Jacket]

By that logic Donovan McNabb and Todd Heap should each be one of the top-3 players taken at their position.

Unlike McNabb and Heap, LJ has only been injured (to the point where he's missing games) once in his entire career.

Unlike McNabb and Heap, LJ has only been the starter for 2 seasons.

Unlike McNabb and Heap, and to the point you made, LJ isn't a consistent injury concern. You'll have a point if LJ misses another chunk of time this season -- even if it's another fluke. If not, it just furthers the point that last year's one-off was the typical fluke injury that hits most players at some point in their career.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

MB3

He's a good player, but he's not an elite dynasty back. He'll lose touches to Felix and he could be in for a dropoff if Owens breaks down and the Dallas offense hits the wall. I don't think he's a guy you can build an FF team around.

Immediately who I thought of when I saw the subject line.

Do we really want to go there again?MB3 is a RB1 and will be for several more years. Debate all you like, but he's a Top 10 / Round 1 pick.

That's pretty much the point, he shouldn't be. Plus, it seems many here (could just be perception) like to rate him just below AD/LT/SJax. IMO, he's a couple tiers below.

In 3 years, he hasn't even exceeded 1,000 yards rushing.

The team just drafted another RB to use in RBBC.

Do you expect Barber to do a lot better than he did with JJones?

He's a TD machine, but do you want to rely on TDs, without yardage, as part of a RBBC, as your RB1? Even if he ends up top 10 over the season, when you're relying on TDs as much as he is, it just doesn't seem the smart play.

I really don't get the hating on Barber - how far down the list would you put him? RB12? RB15?The debate on him is way too much - he's not a Top 3 RB, fine. He's not below Top 15 either. So he is 4-14, depending on your personal opinion.

Some of your replies about "relying on TDs" and "never had 1,000 yards" are confusing at best - in a standard scoring league or FBG scoring, he's a Top 10 guy, period.

As per my personal opinion, well - he was a HUGE value before he broke out last year. He could be drafted in Rounds 4-5 last year and was by myself and others in many leagues, who were rewarded.

Now he's a Round 1 guy in redraft - Round 2 if you're very lucky - with more downside than upside which I agree with - but it's hardly overhype. He has performed in a RBBC before and will again, plus he was a Pro Bowler without even starting.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

MB3

He's a good player, but he's not an elite dynasty back. He'll lose touches to Felix and he could be in for a dropoff if Owens breaks down and the Dallas offense hits the wall. I don't think he's a guy you can build an FF team around.

Immediately who I thought of when I saw the subject line.

Do we really want to go there again?MB3 is a RB1 and will be for several more years. Debate all you like, but he's a Top 10 / Round 1 pick.

JP - you are one of the reasons that MB3 is overhyped. "We" don't need to go there... I wasn't the first, not even the second, to throw MB3's name in the ring. MB3 is a top-10 RB, maybe. But he's not a top 5-7 RB, and that's where quite a few people are ranking him.

I'd need to see your Top 10 RBs then.Hard to argue that someone that's a consensus first round pick and has an ADP in the Top 10 doesn't deserve it or is overhyped.

 

[switz]

MB3 is a top-10 RB, maybe. But he's not a top 5-7 RB, and that's where quite a few people are ranking him.

I'd need to see your Top 10 RBs then.Hard to argue that someone that's a consensus first round pick and has an ADP in the Top 10 doesn't deserve it or is overhyped.

I disagree wholeheartedly with that. Every year 50% of the top-10 ranked RBs don't finish in the top-10, so it's very arguable about almost ANY of them that they are overrated.I agree MB3 is probably top-10, but I don't see him as 4-6 which is where I am seeing him ranked repeatedly.

I've seen him ranked before Addai, Westbrook, Gore, all of whom I would guarantee finish with more points than he does.

I don't discount the TDs, I figure he'll finish with 13-15 TDs. I just don't see his touches increasing as some of the people ranking him higher must think. Truth is, he's in an RBBC, they drafted a guy in the first round to play a role in the RBBC, there's just no way he gets enough opportunity to be anything more than a borderline top-10 RB, barring another season where most of the elite RBs suffer extended injuries.

Honestly, when I see Barber, he reminds me a ton of Barlow... with one exception, he works very hard. Barlow didn't want to work at all. But neither were elite talents, and had inflated numbers based on the situations they ran in... I don't think Barber will put up numbers as a starter the way people think.