Which rookie RB do you reach for? (1 Viewer)

[bjlmonster]

Which of these guys would you move up to get or take earlier than you probably should to get them in your dynasty rookie draft? Assuming you own the current starter.

Rookie - Current Starter

Shonn Greene - Thomas Jones

Bernard Scott - Cedric Benson

Andre Brown - Brandon Jacobs

James Davis - Jamal Lewis

Gartrelle Johnson - LT

It seems this rookie class of RB is not high on exceptional talent, but a group of guys that could be extremely valuable to those who own the current starter. SO, do you pass on Maclin to take Shonn Greene if you own Jones? Do you take Bernard Scott mid to late 2nd if you own Benson, etc. Or do you take the best player available?

It is intriguing to possibly "lock up" the starter at RB for that team for current and near future.

 

[Pickle Rody]

Shonn Greene

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Is Greene sliding much further than 5 in any draft?

 

[FUBAR]

Is Greene sliding much further than 5 in any draft?

I'm not sure how anyone can "reach" for him when he's at worst the #6 pick in most leagues IMO, regardless of who owns TJones. I've reached for Gartrell, I'm less than confident about LT this year.

 

[HellToupee]

I own LT and passed on Gartell. LT has 1 or 2 good years left & I don't think his replacement is on the roster

 

[Tanner9919]

Which of these guys would you move up to get or take earlier than you probably should to get them in your dynasty rookie draft? Assuming you own the current starter. Rookie - Current StarterShonn Greene - Thomas JonesBernard Scott - Cedric BensonAndre Brown - Brandon JacobsJames Davis - Jamal LewisGartrelle Johnson - LTIt seems this rookie class of RB is not high on exceptional talent, but a group of guys that could be extremely valuable to those who own the current starter. SO, do you pass on Maclin to take Shonn Greene if you own Jones? Do you take Bernard Scott mid to late 2nd if you own Benson, etc. Or do you take the best player available?It is intriguing to possibly "lock up" the starter at RB for that team for current and near future.

Donald Brown - Joe Addai

 

[Tigerbot Hesh]

I own LT and passed on Gartell. LT has 1 or 2 good years left & I don't think his replacement is on the roster

If you could roster only Gartrelle or Darren Sproles, which one would you go with? I'd think Sproles would get just as many chances as Gartrelle would if something happened to LT (again).

 

[Crippler]

I own LT and passed on Gartell. LT has 1 or 2 good years left & I don't think his replacement is on the roster

If you could roster only Gartrelle or Darren Sproles, which one would you go with? I'd think Sproles would get just as many chances as Gartrelle would if something happened to LT (again).

I dont think you can count out Jacob Hester out of this yet either. I thought he played well near end of the year and is a cross between Sproles and Johnson. Good hands , size and athletism and has one year in the system. I think if LT went down it would truly be RBBC with each probably be 40-40-20 with Johnson seeing the least amount of touches

 

[Ketamine Dreams]

I own LT and passed on Gartell. LT has 1 or 2 good years left & I don't think his replacement is on the roster

If you could roster only Gartrelle or Darren Sproles, which one would you go with? I'd think Sproles would get just as many chances as Gartrelle would if something happened to LT (again).

I dont think you can count out Jacob Hester out of this yet either. I thought he played well near end of the year and is a cross between Sproles and Johnson. Good hands , size and athletism and has one year in the system. I think if LT went down it would truly be RBBC with each probably be 40-40-20 with Johnson seeing the least amount of touches

I would count out Hester. He's not the answer. Agree it would probably be RBBC if/when LT goes down. I don't know if LT has 2 years left in him. He looked pretty washed up at times last year, and yes I know he was injured. I think he falls apart pretty soon and his dynasty owners watch that value disappear. He's had his time, but I just don't see him lasting much longer. I drafted Johnson in one dynasty league. I think he has a good a shot as anyone in that backfield. Sproles is exciting, but I think a full-time role for a whole season would be too much on him.

 

[Biabreakable]

1st of all I don't advocate reaching for any player. Especialy in rookie drafts. Most rookies wont help you at all. Of the ones that do most wont help you right away. Of the ones who could help you right away many of them wont be as useful later on.

This rookie crop is interesting because a majority of opinion thinks this draft class was a weak one. Yet there are many players who are in very good opportunity situations for FF.

I believe in drafting BPA. But I think the handcuffing strategy in dynasty has more value than in redraft format. Being able to tie up a good group of RB on a run heavy team like the Giants or Jaguars or talented lines and teams like the Chargers gives you something to work with.

I consider the Bengals and Browns to be worse teams in a lot of ways than the other options and I don't like the players as well although I guess Scott could really suprise.

 

[Spark026]

Not sure why you included Greene and not the other mid-round talents McCoy and Brown in your list. In PPR leagues these guys are all taken in the 2nd half of the first round usually.

I think McCoy is who I'd be willing to reach on in PPR leagues, as high as 1.4 if I owned Westbrook.

Brown is usually taken earlier, but he recently fell to 1.8 in one of my drafts. He's probably worth the 1.4 wether you have Addai or not, so its not really a reach i guess.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

You left off the two easiest calls:

Javon Ringer - LenDale White

Cedric Peerman - Willis McGahee

I doubt either "starter" is with their respective team next year, and both of these rookies are lunchpail guys who should endear themselves to the coaches pretty quickly.

of the choices you gave, I would say Johnson - LT

I expect that Sproles is going elsewhere next year to get his one big contract of his career. LT was in a game of contract chicken with AJ Smith this Spring and he took a pay cut in 2010/2011 stay with the team. He has a roster bonus in early 2010 that could mean curtains if he doesn't finish the season healthy for the third straight season. Johnson is a terrific grinder - kind of like a more powerful Travis Henry. AJ has been great at evaluating tailbacks, he took a good look at Brown, Wells, and Moreno this year, and in the end decided to take Johnson, a RB that a lot of people didn't even have as draftable a few months ago.

I already advocate reaching for Scott compared to my fellow rookie rankers, and I would advocate it regardless of where he landed, he's the kind of boom/bust rookie that is a good one to take because you either have something a lot better than the draft slot you took him at, or you see quickly to cut him because he's in trouble or the doghouse.

 

[bjlmonster]

Is Greene sliding much further than 5 in any draft?

I'm not sure how anyone can "reach" for him when he's at worst the #6 pick in most leagues IMO, regardless of who owns TJones. I've reached for Gartrell, I'm less than confident about LT this year.

Not necessarily reach for Greene, but would you trade up and give up 2nd round picks or picks next year to move up and take him, because you have TJ on the roster?

 

[bjlmonster]

You left off the two easiest calls:Javon Ringer - LenDale WhiteCedric Peerman - Willis McGaheeI doubt either "starter" is with their respective team next year, and both of these rookies are lunchpail guys who should endear themselves to the coaches pretty quickly.

I agree with those two, especially Ringer. I did leave him off, but would he be the kind of guy you really go after if you own CJ. Would you really go after Peerman if you were a Ray Rice owner?

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

You left off the two easiest calls:Javon Ringer - LenDale WhiteCedric Peerman - Willis McGaheeI doubt either "starter" is with their respective team next year, and both of these rookies are lunchpail guys who should endear themselves to the coaches pretty quickly.

I agree with those two, especially Ringer. I did leave him off, but would he be the kind of guy you really go after if you own CJ. Would you really go after Peerman if you were a Ray Rice owner?

Well I would go after Peerman and Ringer regardless of my holdings in the TEN and BAL backfields, because they are quality prospects on teams that run the ball very well. I expect Peerman to become a semi-handcuff to Rice next year (McClain still looms, current move to FB notwithstanding), and maybe even this year if McGahee continues to be McGahee, with the frequent injuries and not getting with the program in Baltimore.

 

[5Rings]

Biggest value in dynasty drafts this year is Glen Coffee.

Getting him in the 3rd round is robbery.

 

[FUBAR]

Is Greene sliding much further than 5 in any draft?

I'm not sure how anyone can "reach" for him when he's at worst the #6 pick in most leagues IMO, regardless of who owns TJones. I've reached for Gartrell, I'm less than confident about LT this year.

Not necessarily reach for Greene, but would you trade up and give up 2nd round picks or picks next year to move up and take him, because you have TJ on the roster?

having TJ wouldn't be a factor for me. If I need a RB and the price is decent, I may take Greene, but I prefer Wells, Moreno, McCoy, and Brown.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

Is Greene sliding much further than 5 in any draft?

I'm not sure how anyone can "reach" for him when he's at worst the #6 pick in most leagues IMO, regardless of who owns TJones. I've reached for Gartrell, I'm less than confident about LT this year.

In PRES II I took Greene at 1.09. It's a PPR league.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

I reached for Jared Cook in PRES II - 2.01 and HyperActive I - 2.01, and HyperActive III - 2.03. I got him later in the 2nd round in a few more leagues, so I don't consider that a reach, but early in the 2nd I do. I see Gates potential with Cook.

 

[Cripster]

Biggest value in dynasty drafts this year is Glen Coffee. Getting him in the 3rd round is robbery.

I got him with a 4.3 in a twelve team league.

 

[5Rings]

Biggest value in dynasty drafts this year is Glen Coffee. Getting him in the 3rd round is robbery.

I got him with a 4.3 in a twelve team league.

Dude is gonna get close to 100 carries this year, imo, and far outperform guys taken earlier.I don't get it. Guy is Rb2 brought in to help carry the load for a team who is reverting back to the 06 Norv offense....and you are gonna take Bal RB4 or TEN RB3 a round before him?

 

[Novice2]

Jennings & Coffe

 

[towney]

Am I missing something on Greene? Where does Leon Washington fit if Jones goes down? Isn't he ahead of Greene?

 

[Captain_Apocalypse]

what about Rashad Jennings? is MJD sharing with him or is there another back there that is in line to split? Surely MJD won't be the only guy? I found this on jaguars.com talking about players who flashed during OTAs:

Seventh-round running back Rashad Jennings was that player on offense. Jennings flashed speed, quickness and pass-catching ability you usually don’t see in a player his size. He also displayed an element of poise and comfort you don’t often see in a player from a lower-division school in his rookie mini-camp. Jennings was sensational. He especially caught everyone’s attention on Sunday morning with a darting run up the middle that froze defenders.

 

[todisco1]

Biggest value in dynasty drafts this year is Glen Coffee. Getting him in the 3rd round is robbery.

I got him with a 4.3 in a twelve team league.

Dude is gonna get close to 100 carries this year, imo, and far outperform guys taken earlier.I don't get it. Guy is Rb2 brought in to help carry the load for a team who is reverting back to the 06 Norv offense....and you are gonna take Bal RB4 or TEN RB3 a round before him?

maybe... though I wouldn't be surprised if Kory Sheets beat Coffee out.

 

[Mooks77]

Am I missing something on Greene? Where does Leon Washington fit if Jones goes down? Isn't he ahead of Greene?

In my opinion, if Jones goes down Greene would step into his spot and Washington would stay in the 3rd down change-of-pace role; especially if the Jets have the lead.Now, if they're down by a few points and start going pass happy, then Washington would see a lot more playing time since he is a much better receiver and is better in pass protection.Greene will be a very good NFL RB, but he can't catch the ball and needs to work on pass protection. Him and Washington compliment each other very well.

 

[Faust]

what about Rashad Jennings? is MJD sharing with him or is there another back there that is in line to split? Surely MJD won't be the only guy? I found this on jaguars.com talking about players who flashed during OTAs:

Seventh-round running back Rashad Jennings was that player on offense. Jennings flashed speed, quickness and pass-catching ability you usually don’t see in a player his size. He also displayed an element of poise and comfort you don’t often see in a player from a lower-division school in his rookie mini-camp. Jennings was sensational. He especially caught everyone’s attention on Sunday morning with a darting run up the middle that froze defenders.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/1251717

Copyright NFLDraftScout.com, distributed by The Sports Xchange

04/28/2009 - A closer look at the Jaguars' picks: 7/250, Rashad Jennings, RB, 6-1, 231, Liberty...This could be a pleasant find for the Jaguars, taking a player of Jennings' quality this late in the draft. One draft analysis had Jennings as high as a third-round pick. Jennings has good size (6-1, 231) and speed. He was Big South Conference offensive player of the year for the past two seasons. He played eight games as a freshman at Pittsburgh before transferring to Liberty his final three seasons. While he's a stretch to make the roster as a running back, he could be a top special teams player.

04/25/2009 - When Rashad Jennings worked out at Perfect Competition in Fort Lauderdale, Fla., this spring, he got an introduction to life at an NFL training camp. Jennings was at the training facility with a number of big-name NFL players, including Maurice Jones-Drew, Thomas Jones, Fred Taylor, Frank Gore and Chad Johnson. He would run simple errands for the players, making sure they had water after workouts and helping to carry equipment from the fields. That's no different than being a rookie at an NFL camp, where even the first-round picks spend time toting the veterans' helmets and shoulder pads from the practice field to the locker room. In return, Jennings asked for one thing ??? advice. "I wanted to learn how to handle on-the-field and off-the-field problems," Jennings said. "Wanted to know how they took care of their bodies. They've been teaching me a lot. "They all accepted me as a little rookie, befriended me. I was trying to get their respect." Jennings earned it, both from the NFL players at Perfect Competition and the scouts Jennings performed in front of at the NFL combine. He's as highly touted as any prospect to come out of Liberty since Eric Green nearly 20 years ago. Some NFL Draft projections have Jennings going as high as the second round, some as low as the fifth. All agree, though, that Jennings figures to the first Flame chosen since the Steelers drafted Green in the first round. "I'm excited, nervous, all that stuff," Jennings said. "I'm more excited than anything, though. It's coming to an end, which means it's coming to a beginning at the same time." Jennings' prodigious numbers at Liberty (a Big South record 3,633 yards and 42 touchdowns) put him on the radar of NFL scouts. An impressive performance at February's combine added to Jennings' allure. - Chris Lang, Lynchburg News and Advance

 

[houndirish]

Of the scenario you described the guy I'd trade up for just to get the handoff is L. McCoy. I think Westbrook has already peaked and McCoy could be the featured guy there as soon as 2010. I think Shonn Greene will definitely be the feature guy in NY and probably earlier than McCoy is in Philly but I thin McCoy is the more explosive player.

 

[identikit]

I reached for Jared Cook in PRES II - 2.01 and HyperActive I - 2.01, and HyperActive III - 2.03. I got him later in the 2nd round in a few more leagues, so I don't consider that a reach, but early in the 2nd I do. I see Gates potential with Cook.

This is an RB topic, no?

 

[JPeso]

Is Greene sliding much further than 5 in any draft?

I'm not sure how anyone can "reach" for him when he's at worst the #6 pick in most leagues IMO, regardless of who owns TJones. I've reached for Gartrell, I'm less than confident about LT this year.

In PRES II I took Greene at 1.09. It's a PPR league.

Greene also went 1.9 in HA1.

 

[bjlmonster]

I reached for Jared Cook in PRES II - 2.01 and HyperActive I - 2.01, and HyperActive III - 2.03. I got him later in the 2nd round in a few more leagues, so I don't consider that a reach, but early in the 2nd I do. I see Gates potential with Cook.

This is an RB topic, no?

Yes, but same type of scenario I am looking at. Basically, which guys are going at a later value than what they should be able to produce. I know it is all a crap shoot, but as Jacobs owner, I was really set on trading up with my 2.07 and 2.08 picks to mid 2nd round or using my 2.01 pick to grab Andre Brown. He hasn't been talked about much here, so I think maybe I should grab Stafford, Sanchez, Robieskie type at 2.01 and use 2.07&8 to grab Peerman, Ringer, or Coffee type of guy or use one of those picks on a guy like Cook ( I need a TE also!).It is great to hear this type of discussion on these kids that could be steals late in the draft and which of them people think we should actually go out and target ahead of where they are currently going in most drafts. For example a few years back, I traded 2.08 and 3.03 to move up to 2.06 to grab Brandon Marshall, who had been going late 2nd round. He wast the type of guy I felt was good enough to warrent moving up and/or reaching for early.

 

[Pickle Rody]

Is Greene sliding much further than 5 in any draft?

Got him at 1.09 in my rookie dynasty draft. Everyone else mentioned (RB wise) went ahead of him. I have T. Jones.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

I reached for Jared Cook in PRES II - 2.01 and HyperActive I - 2.01, and HyperActive III - 2.03. I got him later in the 2nd round in a few more leagues, so I don't consider that a reach, but early in the 2nd I do. I see Gates potential with Cook.

This is an RB topic, no?

I had already made a post about a RB, so I was bored.

 

[cdwood]

I'm a T.Jones owner and had the 1.07 pick, so I was expecting Crabtree and 5 RB's to be gone by the time I drafted, I expected to get Maclin. But the guy drafting just ahead of me picked Maclin so Shonn Greene fell to me at 1.07 and I selected him.

Christopher

 

[barker132000]

Biggest value in dynasty drafts this year is Glen Coffee. Getting him in the 3rd round is robbery.

I got him with a 4.3 in a twelve team league.

Dude is gonna get close to 100 carries this year, imo, and far outperform guys taken earlier.I don't get it. Guy is Rb2 brought in to help carry the load for a team who is reverting back to the 06 Norv offense....and you are gonna take Bal RB4 or TEN RB3 a round before him?

maybe... though I wouldn't be surprised if Kory Sheets beat Coffee out.

Theres my thoughts exactly............I think it was ridiculous that Kory Sheets went undrafted.I have reached for Gartrell Johnson in almost every league...........3 out of 4 so far, and I plan on taking him at 2.17 in a draft im in now, im up in 5 picks.Just think Gartrell Johnson has a great situation and he has an NFL power back skill set. He had a bad 40 time, but he is quick, and his first 10 to 20 yards is PLENTY fast, and he makes great cuts. I won't be a bit shocked if he is not LT's replacement......in fact I am counting on it.

 

[Pooh Tong and Nemo]

Biggest value in dynasty drafts this year is Glen Coffee. Getting him in the 3rd round is robbery.

100% correct

 

[Biabreakable]

FWIW running backs taken in the 3rd round have a 33% chance of becoming successful. There were only 2 taken in the 3rd round. Coffee and Green.

4th round is something like 22% success rate but I would have to go over it again. IIRC that is pretty close.

5th round is really low like 16% IIRC and the 6th-7th round picks have slightly better success rate as the 5th. Mostly due to more RB being taken in those rounds than the 5th over the past 20 or so years.

So if you believe Greene will work out that stacks the odds against Coffee.

 

[FUBAR]

I reached for Jared Cook in PRES II - 2.01 and HyperActive I - 2.01, and HyperActive III - 2.03. I got him later in the 2nd round in a few more leagues, so I don't consider that a reach, but early in the 2nd I do. I see Gates potential with Cook.

This is an RB topic, no?

Yes, but same type of scenario I am looking at. Basically, which guys are going at a later value than what they should be able to produce. I know it is all a crap shoot, but as Jacobs owner, I was really set on trading up with my 2.07 and 2.08 picks to mid 2nd round or using my 2.01 pick to grab Andre Brown. He hasn't been talked about much here, so I think maybe I should grab Stafford, Sanchez, Robieskie type at 2.01 and use 2.07&8 to grab Peerman, Ringer, or Coffee type of guy or use one of those picks on a guy like Cook ( I need a TE also!).It is great to hear this type of discussion on these kids that could be steals late in the draft and which of them people think we should actually go out and target ahead of where they are currently going in most drafts. For example a few years back, I traded 2.08 and 3.03 to move up to 2.06 to grab Brandon Marshall, who had been going late 2nd round. He wast the type of guy I felt was good enough to warrent moving up and/or reaching for early.

in my leagues, Cook hasn't gone before the 3rd round. I've taken him when I can, moved up as needed. Dude's gonna be a stud.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

FWIW running backs taken in the 3rd round have a 33% chance of becoming successful. There were only 2 taken in the 3rd round. Coffee and Green.4th round is something like 22% success rate but I would have to go over it again. IIRC that is pretty close.5th round is really low like 16% IIRC and the 6th-7th round picks have slightly better success rate as the 5th. Mostly due to more RB being taken in those rounds than the 5th over the past 20 or so years.So if you believe Greene will work out that stacks the odds against Coffee.

I disagree with this reasoning. What Greene does has nothing to do with what Coffee does. It isn't like there's only a certain amount of success to go around in the third round, and if one player seizes it, then there's nothing left for the other player. It's like a coinflip, every single one is 50/50. If I flip 10 heads in a row, that does not change the odds of a tails on the 11th flip.

 

[Buddy Ball 2K3]

I would go for none of the above and take McCoy. Westbrook is one of those backs that you just know is going to miss some games every year. He also is close to being 30 and the down side of his career. I think McCoy pass of huge in a dynasty league in a couple of years.

 

[Matt Waldman]

The thing about rookie drafts is you can discount a rookie class as lacking talent and really whiff on adding anything for a season, which many cases can set you back. There are enough talented runners every year that could be productive in the NFL that it is worthwhile reaching for a one or two each season because of what they can do with the opportunity. These are runners you could have gotten in rounds 3-8 in most rookie drafts since 1996:

Brian Westbrook - He was in a class that I remember was not rated very highly beyond William Green and Portis

Mike Anderson

Derrick Ward - '04 class...

Earnest Graham

Brandon Jacobs

Michael Turner - The "big" picks in this '04 class were Steven Jackson, Chris Perry, and Julius Jones

Curtis Martin

Steve Slaton

Marion Barber III

Tim Hightower

Ryan Grant

Willie Parker - '04 class. Hmm...seems like the three late round guys are collectively way better than the top three...

Domanick Williams

Rudi Johnson - yep he wasn't a big-time pick in '02; those were Deshaun Foster, Green, and Portis

Marcel Shipp

Rueben Droughns

Ahman Green

Fred Lane

That's more than a handful and worth taking a shot even if you get no more than a great season or two good seasons.