Which Top 10 RB from 2006 does not make the Top 10 in 2007? (1 Viewer)

[Rounders]

History has shown us that typically there is about 50% turnover each year in the Top 10 RBs. I thought that it would be beneficial to look at the 2006 Top 10 and start identifying the fallouts.

Here's the 2006 Top 10 (FBG scoring)

1 RB Tomlinson,Ladainian - 427.4

2 RB Johnson,Larry - 333.9

3 RB Jackson,Steven - 329.4

4 RB Gore,Frank - 272.0

5 RB Parker,Willie - 267.6

6 RB Westbrook,Brian - 257.6

7 RB Barber,Tiki - 242.7

8 RB Jones-Drew,Maurice - 227.7

9 RB Johnson,Rudi - 215.2

10 RB McAllister,Deuce - 191.9

My list to not make the top 10 in 2007

Barber - Retired

Jones-Drew - I feel like his TDs will go down.

McAllister - Bush will take more carries away as he continues to get better.

Gore - Not sure if his bod can take the pounding, 2 knee and 2 shoulder surgeries scare me.

Other thoughts?

 

[FFLHummers]

History has shown us that typically there is about 50% turnover each year in the Top 10 RBs. I thought that it would be beneficial to look at the 2006 Top 10 and start identifying the fallouts.Barber - RetiredJones-Drew - I feel like his TDs will go down. McAllister - Bush will take more carries away as he continues to get better.Gore - Not sure if his bod can take the pounding, 2 knee and 2 shoulder surgeries scare me.Other thoughts?

Westbrook scares me - he scared me this year, but somehow he made it through the year missing only 1.5 games due to injury. He's not getting any younger, but on the other hand Buckhalter isn't scaring me and Moats is on his way out.Also, remove any RB (if it is a RB) that is on the cover of Madden.

 

[jurb26]

Tough call but I would say:

Barber, obvious reason.

LJ, 420 carries this year and history does not look good in years prior to that workload.

Parker, hard for me to see 16 TDs for him again even though I hope so as a Steeler fan.

McAllister, bairly there this year. Next year Bush will see more touches IMO.

 

[eoMMan]

I think there will be a couple new guys on that list. There won't be a big reason why some of those current top 10 guys will drop off the list other than an up and coming back will outproduce them.

Possibilities:

Reggie Bush

DeAngelo Williams

Laurence Maroney

Ronnie Brown

Cadillac Williams

Cedric Benson

Chester Taylor

Lamont Jordan

Kenny Irons

 

[Banger]

Tiki, Rudi (due to one dimensional nature/possible o-line issues), Deuce and whichever guys get hurt.

 

[baronson]

History has shown us that typically there is about 50% turnover each year in the Top 10 RBs. I thought that it would be beneficial to look at the 2006 Top 10 and start identifying the fallouts.

Barber - Retired

Jones-Drew - I feel like his TDs will go down.

McAllister - Bush will take more carries away as he continues to get better.

Gore - Not sure if his bod can take the pounding, 2 knee and 2 shoulder surgeries scare me.

Other thoughts?

Westbrook scares me - he scared me this year, but somehow he made it through the year missing only 1.5 games due to injury. He's not getting any younger, but on the other hand Buckhalter isn't scaring me and Moats is on his way out.Also, remove any RB (if it is a RB) that is on the cover of Madden.

?????? he just turned 27 to start the season. and he's never carried the ball more than 177 times in a season before this year. age is not a problem for him. he'll be at or near the top again next year for sure. plus, donovan seems to use him more than garcia does.i can't see LJ being healthy the whole year next year. i'd be pretty surprised if KC didn't get another decent back (draft or sign) to offset some of his workload.

gore's a beast.

i don't see ronnie brown sneaking into the top 10 if RWilliams comes back and contributes.

i can't seen MJD scoring as much next year, since greg jones has always been the short-yardage guy before this year.

guys who can "get in there" to the top 10 i think are:

maroney - all he needs is opportunity

CTaylor - if Minn can get their passing game straight, he'll have more opps at the GL and more room to run

SA - if he stays healthy, he'll certainly score plenty

Jacobs - giants may pick up another back, but if Eli can stop being a terrible QB, jacobs will get plenty of scoring chances.

 

[Mr. Peterson]

History has shown us that typically there is about 50% turnover each year in the Top 10 RBs. I thought that it would be beneficial to look at the 2006 Top 10 and start identifying the fallouts.

Here's the 2006 Top 10 (FBG scoring)

1 RB Tomlinson,Ladainian - 427.4

2 RB Johnson,Larry - 333.9

3 RB Jackson,Steven - 329.4

4 RB Gore,Frank - 272.0

5 RB Parker,Willie - 267.6

6 RB Westbrook,Brian - 257.6

7 RB Barber,Tiki - 242.7

8 RB Jones-Drew,Maurice - 227.7

9 RB Johnson,Rudi - 215.2

10 RB McAllister,Deuce - 191.9

My list to not make the top 10 in 2007

Barber - Retired

Jones-Drew - I feel like his TDs will go down.

McAllister - Bush will take more carries away as he continues to get better.

Gore - Not sure if his bod can take the pounding, 2 knee and 2 shoulder surgeries scare me.

Other thoughts?

My exact thoughts.

 

[David Yudkin]

After studying this in a fair amount of detail, there is a very simple reason why players are or are not Top 10 RB. Health and workload. Guys that did not rank in the Top 10 in one year that are primary RB typically get hurt and fall out the next year. And guys that were not Top 10 one year stay healthy the next and then climb into the Top 10.

IMO, the key barometer is workload, and players that get 300+ touches are good bets to be in the Top 10 (or at worse Top 15). If you can identify players that will get the workload and stay healthy, those will be the most likely guys to consider for the Top 10.

This year, Jones Drew was the exception to the 300 touch rule (and Betts missed by two touches).

 

[Rounders]

History has shown us that typically there is about 50% turnover each year in the Top 10 RBs. I thought that it would be beneficial to look at the 2006 Top 10 and start identifying the fallouts.

Barber - Retired

Jones-Drew - I feel like his TDs will go down.

McAllister - Bush will take more carries away as he continues to get better.

Gore - Not sure if his bod can take the pounding, 2 knee and 2 shoulder surgeries scare me.

Other thoughts?

Westbrook scares me - he scared me this year, but somehow he made it through the year missing only 1.5 games due to injury. He's not getting any younger, but on the other hand Buckhalter isn't scaring me and Moats is on his way out.Also, remove any RB (if it is a RB) that is on the cover of Madden.

?????? he just turned 27 to start the season. and he's never carried the ball more than 177 times in a season before this year. age is not a problem for him. he'll be at or near the top again next year for sure. plus, donovan seems to use him more than garcia does.i can't see LJ being healthy the whole year next year. i'd be pretty surprised if KC didn't get another decent back (draft or sign) to offset some of his workload.

gore's a beast.

i don't see ronnie brown sneaking into the top 10 if RWilliams comes back and contributes.

i can't seen MJD scoring as much next year, since greg jones has always been the short-yardage guy before this year.

guys who can "get in there" to the top 10 i think are:

maroney - all he needs is opportunity

CTaylor - if Minn can get their passing game straight, he'll have more opps at the GL and more room to run

SA - if he stays healthy, he'll certainly score plenty

Jacobs - giants may pick up another back, but if Eli can stop being a terrible QB, jacobs will get plenty of scoring chances.

Don't forget about Portis, talent is there and he could easily have a 1500-15 season.

 

[Warpig]

I see KC starting about a two year slide after this year. Shields will retire and Waters can't stop a D-line on his own. They'll probably be stupid enough to bring back Bledsoe, errrr I mean Statue of Liberty, err I mean Trent Green at the spritely young age of 37! TG may leave via free agency (if he's smart he would).

The Chiefs have so many holes it's mind boggling.

They need a #1 WR, Serious O-line help, QB help, D-line help and LB help! Those are too many needs to address in one year.

With that said, I see LJ taking a rather significant dive next year. If they try to pound him into the ground again I also see an injury in his future.

 

[reg]

1 RB Tomlinson,Ladainian - 427.4

2 RB Johnson,Larry - 333.9

3 RB Jackson,Steven - 329.4

4 RB Gore,Frank - 272.0

5 RB Parker,Willie - 267.6

6 RB Westbrook,Brian - 257.6

7 RB Barber,Tiki - 242.7

8 RB Jones-Drew,Maurice - 227.7

9 RB Johnson,Rudi - 215.2

10 RB McAllister,Deuce - 191.9

Those would be my 50% cuts.

 

[NOONAN]

"i can't seen MJD scoring as much next year, since greg jones has always been the short-yardage guy before this year."

Greg Jones WAS the short yardage guy for 30 games for F Taylor and scored 7 rushing TD's on 213 attempts. This year, MJD scored 13 rushing TD's on 166 touches and scored a rushing TD in a rookie record 8 straight games. He is WAY more explosive in the open field and more reliable in short yardage. Why would JAX go back to G Jones after yet another surgery when MJD has proven to be much more effective in the same role? Also, if Freddy T leaves due to contract issues, MJD is the feature back and would get to the 300 touch plateau.

He is, IMHO, on of the locks to remain a top 10 next year.

 

[Blackjacks]

1 RB Tomlinson,Ladainian - 427.4

2 RB Johnson,Larry - 333.9

3 RB Jackson,Steven - 329.4

8 RB Jones-Drew,Maurice - 227.7

9 RB Johnson,Rudi - 215.2

I think these 5 have the best chance to stay and add in

Portis

R. Brown

C. Taylor

Alexander

D-Will

 

[Warpig]

i can't seen MJD scoring as much next year, since greg jones has always been the short-yardage guy before this year.

Greg Jones WAS the short yardage guy for 30 games for F Taylor and scored 7 rushing TD's on 213 attempts. This year, MJD scored 13 rushing TD's on 166 touches and scored a rushing TD in a rookie record 8 straight games. He is WAY more explosive in the open field and more reliable in short yardage. Why would JAX go back to G Jones after yet another surgery when MJD has proven to be much more effective in the same role? Also, if Freddy T leaves due to contract issues, MJD is the feature back and would get to the 300 touch plateau.

He is, IMHO, on of the locks to remain a top 10 next year.

Freddy T is wanting 5 million next year...twice as much as he made this year. I'm a jags fan and I'd be willing to let him walk instead of paying him that kinda money.It could be a ploy by he and his agent to force them to release him or trade him since he doesn't want to share carries anymore or be second pony.

Not to mention he's gonna be 30 or 31. :X

 

[Weapon of Mass Instruction]

I think Travis Henry, SAlex, Maroney, and Ronnie Brown can get in the top 10. Not sure who you cut except Tiki. Maybe MJD and Deuce.

 

[nightshift]

That's IF Tiki retires. I think he does, but you never know. Giants make a good run at the playoffs, maybe lose in the conference game, and Tiki might have a change of heart. Bettis sure did. That ring is very tempting.

Duece falls to top 20.

Rudi falls to top 15.

SURPRISING PREDICTION: The wear & tear catches up with LT2 in 2007 - injured for the season.

NOT SO SURPRISING PREDICTION: With the great season and LT2 injury, #1 2007 RB is:

FWP.

 

[x260bm]

"i can't seen MJD scoring as much next year, since greg jones has always been the short-yardage guy before this year."

Greg Jones WAS the short yardage guy for 30 games for F Taylor and scored 7 rushing TD's on 213 attempts. This year, MJD scored 13 rushing TD's on 166 touches and scored a rushing TD in a rookie record 8 straight games. He is WAY more explosive in the open field and more reliable in short yardage. Why would JAX go back to G Jones after yet another surgery when MJD has proven to be much more effective in the same role? Also, if Freddy T leaves due to contract issues, MJD is the feature back and would get to the 300 touch plateau.

He is, IMHO, on of the locks to remain a top 10 next year.

Greg Jones is not getting the goal line carries next year.

 

[Mr. Brownstone]

"i can't seen MJD scoring as much next year, since greg jones has always been the short-yardage guy before this year."

Greg Jones WAS the short yardage guy for 30 games for F Taylor and scored 7 rushing TD's on 213 attempts. This year, MJD scored 13 rushing TD's on 166 touches and scored a rushing TD in a rookie record 8 straight games. He is WAY more explosive in the open field and more reliable in short yardage. Why would JAX go back to G Jones after yet another surgery when MJD has proven to be much more effective in the same role? Also, if Freddy T leaves due to contract issues, MJD is the feature back and would get to the 300 touch plateau.

He is, IMHO, on of the locks to remain a top 10 next year.

Greg Jones is not getting the goal line carries next year.

He'll get his fair share. He is Jack Del Rio's absolute favorite player.

 

[jetpack]

I pick Willie Parker.

1. Steelers running game was more effective week to week in 2005 when FWP had 260 touches, splitting with Bettis, than it was with him getting 360 alone in 06 and getting shut down every other week.

2. New Steelers RB coach and OC for the Steelers next year regardless if Cowher stays.

3. Davenport is a FA, Hayes was injured all year, and Staley was cut. The Steelers WILL be drafting (or FA) for depth and 3rd-down back. Maybe for a goal-line back as well given that Parker has fumbled twice getting into the EZ this year. Not insignificant.

I wouldn't drop Parker far, maybe 8-12 instead of 3-6 this year, but he'll drop.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

That's IF Tiki retires. I think he does, but you never know. Giants make a good run at the playoffs, maybe lose in the conference game, and Tiki might have a change of heart. Bettis sure did. That ring is very tempting.

Duece falls to top 20.

Rudi falls to top 15.

SURPRISING PREDICTION: The wear & tear catches up with LT2 in 2007 - injured for the season.

NOT SO SURPRISING PREDICTION: With the great season and LT2 injury, #1 2007 RB is:

FWP.

Pretty good prediction for a Steeler fan.

 

[gman8343]

1 RB Tomlinson,Ladainian - 427.42 RB Johnson,Larry - 333.93 RB Jackson,Steven - 329.4 8 RB Jones-Drew,Maurice - 227.79 RB Johnson,Rudi - 215.2 I think these 5 have the best chance to stay and add inPortisR. BrownC. TaylorAlexanderD-Will

I'd toss Addai onto the list of guys who have a good chance at top 10. If he gets the full load he'll be very, very good IMO.

 

[Marc Levin]

1 RB Tomlinson,Ladainian - 427.42 RB Johnson,Larry - 333.93 RB Jackson,Steven - 329.44 RB Gore,Frank - 272.05 RB Parker,Willie - 267.66 RB Westbrook,Brian - 257.67 RB Barber,Tiki - 242.78 RB Jones-Drew,Maurice - 227.79 RB Johnson,Rudi - 215.210 RB McAllister,Deuce - 191.9

LT will not finish #1 two years in a row - he'll drop to his historical numbers. Third.LJ and SJax are guaranteed a ton of touches if they are not injured, I think they will be back in the top-5.I worry about Gore's health, but, without predicting injury, I think he is back in the top-10 at least.So, that leaves Parker,Westbrook, Barber, MJ-D, Rudi, and Deuce.I am removing Barber, Westbrook, and Deuce. Rudi = a rock - he'll finish #8/9/10 again. MJ-D won't have to split time with Taylor next year - I think Taylor's past offseason contract demands will force the Jags to move him - splitting time with Jones means even more touches for MJ-D.Parker, unless he is injured, is in the perfect situation to repeat into the top-10. Similar to Rudi, actually. He's highly likely to get a ton of touches (368 this year, behind an OL that helped him generate 4.4 per carry) and he is too explosive not to get big chunks of yardage. Of course, a coaching change and the annual departure of the Steelers FAs put Parker on my bubble.Bush will become more prominent and will do so earlier to remove Deuce from the top-10: Over the last 10 weeks in my non-PPR FBG scoring league, Deuce was the #16 back and Bush the #12. That's how I think they will play out in 2007, too.I just have a gut feeling about Westbrook - kid can't stay healthy and he generates a TON of his fantasy numbers through the air. Since I like MJ-D, it's Westie who is out of the top-10

 

[nightshift]

That's IF Tiki retires. I think he does, but you never know. Giants make a good run at the playoffs, maybe lose in the conference game, and Tiki might have a change of heart. Bettis sure did. That ring is very tempting.

Duece falls to top 20.

Rudi falls to top 15.

SURPRISING PREDICTION: The wear & tear catches up with LT2 in 2007 - injured for the season.

NOT SO SURPRISING PREDICTION: With the great season and LT2 injury, #1 2007 RB is:

FWP.

Pretty good prediction for a Steeler fan.

No lie. Especially when I predicted he would be top 10 this year.

 

[doughboydeluxe]

That's IF Tiki retires. I think he does, but you never know. Giants make a good run at the playoffs, maybe lose in the conference game, and Tiki might have a change of heart. Bettis sure did. That ring is very tempting.

Duece falls to top 20.

Rudi falls to top 15.

SURPRISING PREDICTION: The wear & tear catches up with LT2 in 2007 - injured for the season.

NOT SO SURPRISING PREDICTION: With the great season and LT2 injury, #1 2007 RB is:

FWP.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

1. Tomlinson: I can't bet against him. San Diego has a great young QB/TE, and developing WR, plus an OL that only added an all pro LT, McNeil, thru the draft ths year. They have a great defense with few holes...I would keep adding more OL to open holes and run over the people in front of them. LT has the best vision of any RB I have ever seen...EVER! EVER! EVER! Still you have to assume he comes off the numbers a little bit. Maybe they really try and work Turner into the offense a little more...Thurman Thomas/Kenneth Davis type combo. The WR will get better and any kind of downfield passing only makes stopping LT harder.

2. Larry Johnson: Edwards burned out Curtis Martin, look for him to make a short career out of LJ. We were doom and gloom on him this year...you can see the beginning of the end for him and another year like this one and he is going to be 26/27 going on 37 quickly.

3. Steven Jackson: That carpet he runs on plus his size which means he likes to dish out the punishment..I think he could be due for an injury but that's pure speculation. I like him a lot so it's nothing personal.

4. Brian Westbrook: Could easily fall out of the top10.

5. Frank Gore: Mediocre to bad defense, improving passing game, decent OL...unless he gets injured he should make a return to the top10. I don't really want to take him at #4 or 5 in the draft...but he isn't going to slide out of the 1st round either so you are chasing this year's stats sort of speak. There is room for him to do even more. If I were the SF front office I would go out and get the best OL FA I could find and plan on running him a lot...get a decent back to spell him, that RB might already be on the team.

6. Willie Parker: New coach, maybe new philosophy...could easily slide out of the top10 but he looked really good in many of the games this season. You don't run for 200+ yards in a game by accident.

7. Tiki: Retired

8. MJD: TD will take a hit and I think if he is the main back he might not be as effective as he was this season. If someone burns a 1st round pick on him, might not be too smart to do.

9. Rudi Johnson: As long as Palmer, CJ. TJ are working the passing game you can expect top10 numbers from Rudi...will never be elite but good for 100 yds a week.

10. Deuce McAllister: Definitely a long shot to make it top10 with Bush getting more and more touches.

Shaun Alexander, Clinton Portis, Ronnie Brown, Joesph Addai, Marion Barber(If he got 20 touches a game), Reggie Bush, there are lots of RB if they could take over and get the majority of the carries that could be a top10 RB.

 

[The Jacket]

The Chiefs have so many holes it's mind boggling.

And yet they're in the playoffs.I look forward to 2007 when some of those holes will have been filled. With a solid offseason they should be in the Super Bowl given how they can make postseason play with so many holes.

With that said, I see LJ taking a rather significant dive next year. If they try to pound him into the ground again I also see an injury in his future.

Then why didn't it happen this season? He carried the ball a ton at the end of 2005 and all throughout 2006.Not once has it looked like he's even remotely slowing down -- not even after illegally getting his HEAD RIPPED OFF. You guys are funny. LJ will be in the top-10 again next year. I'd bet a good amount of money he'll be in the top-5 again.

 

[The Jacket]

i can't see LJ being healthy the whole year next year. i'd be pretty surprised if KC didn't get another decent back (draft or sign) to offset some of his workload.

Not even close to a threat to LJ's production.They already HAVE a pretty decent backup in Michael Bennett... they just don't give him carries.And, what with all the many holes they have and everything, they won't be able to afford to spend any high picks or free agent dollars on ANOTHER running back.

 

[FFLHummers]

Westbrook scares me - he scared me this year, but somehow he made it through the year missing only 1.5 games due to injury. He's not getting any younger, but on the other hand Buckhalter isn't scaring me and Moats is on his way out.

Also, remove any RB (if it is a RB) that is on the cover of Madden.

?????? he just turned 27 to start the season. and he's never carried the ball more than 177 times in a season before this year. age is not a problem for him. he'll be at or near the top again next year for sure. plus, donovan seems to use him more than garcia does.

I wasn't implying that he is nearing the wrong side of 30, but he had been plagued by injuries prior to this year. I think he was questionable most of the year. He proved he can play with nagging issues. If he stays healthy again, I agree he may return as a top 10. But I think the question was who could fall out of the top 10, and I think he could on injury risk alone.

 

[Banger]

The Chiefs have so many holes it's mind boggling.

And yet they're in the playoffs.I look forward to 2007 when some of those holes will have been filled. With a solid offseason they should be in the Super Bowl given how they can make postseason play with so many holes.

With that said, I see LJ taking a rather significant dive next year. If they try to pound him into the ground again I also see an injury in his future.

Then why didn't it happen this season? He carried the ball a ton at the end of 2005 and all throughout 2006.Not once has it looked like he's even remotely slowing down -- not even after illegally getting his HEAD RIPPED OFF. You guys are funny. LJ will be in the top-10 again next year. I'd bet a good amount of money he'll be in the top-5 again.

Agreed. Given his workload (and I don't anticipate it to change much) I don't see how he's not around the top 5. Injury is the main risk he has but that's no different than any other RB, it's part of the game. People can throw around all the stats they want but I don't believe that there is some magic workload # that equals injuries. Some guys get banged up on an average # of carries (foster/Bell/etc.) and others are "lucky", have the skill whatever you want to call it that enables them to handle the workload (i.e. LT, Emmitt, etc.). I wouldn't want miss out on those players just because they get a heavy workload. As an FF owner I want that, I want my guy to get the ball all the time. If he gets injured, he gets injured, it's part of the game and that's where handcuffs/solid bench come into play but when they are playing there's a good chance that they will be at or near the top of their positional rankings.I have a hard evaluating touch's vs. injuries. Personally, I think playing on a turf field is much more of an injury factor than a player getting 40 more touch's (3/game) over the course of a season. I'd rather take the risk on a guy that I know will get a ton of carries.

 

[H.K.]

I wasn't implying that he is nearing the wrong side of 30, but he had been plagued by injuries prior to this year. I think he was questionable most of the year. He proved he can play with nagging issues. If he stays healthy again, I agree he may return as a top 10. But I think the question was who could fall out of the top 10, and I think he could on injury risk alone.

Westbrook is a logical choice to miss games and fall out of the top 10.

 

[Liquid Tension]

History has shown us that typically there is about 50% turnover each year in the Top 10 RBs. I thought that it would be beneficial to look at the 2006 Top 10 and start identifying the fallouts.Here's the 2006 Top 10 (FBG scoring)1 RB Tomlinson,Ladainian - 427.42 RB Johnson,Larry - 333.93 RB Jackson,Steven - 329.44 RB Gore,Frank - 272.05 RB Parker,Willie - 267.66 RB Westbrook,Brian - 257.67 RB Barber,Tiki - 242.78 RB Jones-Drew,Maurice - 227.79 RB Johnson,Rudi - 215.210 RB McAllister,Deuce - 191.9My list to not make the top 10 in 2007Barber - RetiredJones-Drew - I feel like his TDs will go down. McAllister - Bush will take more carries away as he continues to get better.Gore - Not sure if his bod can take the pounding, 2 knee and 2 shoulder surgeries scare me.Other thoughts?

I think you have it pretty accurate. I would expect, S. Alexander, Ronnie Brown, Willis Mcgahee and Reggie Bush to replace your 4.

 

[corpcow]

Tough call but I would say:Barber, obvious reason.LJ, 420 carries this year and history does not look good in years prior to that workload.Parker, hard for me to see 16 TDs for him again even though I hope so as a Steeler fan.McAllister, bairly there this year. Next year Bush will see more touches IMO.

The first 3 are definitely on my list to bump down. LT is actually elusive and doesn't take many shots. Not so for LJ. He takes a POUNDING each week (well, he gives it too but...) and I have a feeling that's going to start taking its toll. For whatever reason he reminds me a lot of Jamal Lewis in that regard Parker is another one I'm a HUGE fan of (my fiance is from Da Burgh, and I'm a fan by proxy ). He doesn't get enough credit for his inside ability - many of his big runs started inside. I think he learned the ever-important patience from the Bus. I've always been amused when people say guys aren't "big enough" to be goal line backs. In fact, that can be an advantage, as we saw this year with both Parker and MJD. It's easier to hide. (Travis Henry was always my classic example before this year - not a big guy and they always talked about replacing him at the goal line, but the fact is he ran low to the ground and got a lot of TDs).

 

[lord_helmet]

The Chiefs have so many holes it's mind boggling.

And yet they're in the playoffs.I look forward to 2007 when some of those holes will have been filled. With a solid offseason they should be in the Super Bowl given how they can make postseason play with so many holes.

With that said, I see LJ taking a rather significant dive next year. If they try to pound him into the ground again I also see an injury in his future.

Then why didn't it happen this season? He carried the ball a ton at the end of 2005 and all throughout 2006.Not once has it looked like he's even remotely slowing down -- not even after illegally getting his HEAD RIPPED OFF. You guys are funny. LJ will be in the top-10 again next year. I'd bet a good amount of money he'll be in the top-5 again.

All these LJ haters must be seriously , if not hopefully they will come back after next season to post a bunch of these

 

[Banger]

I see LJ being downgraded due to his heavy workload but haven't seen a mention of SJax and his workload. He also gets pounded like LJ and he had 436 touches compared to LJ's 451 a whopping difference of 15 (less than 1 touch/game). He had 3% fewer touch's which to me is pretty statistically insignificant and runs on turf for 8+ games.

Why the inconsistency then and downgrade LJ for his touch's but SJax is immune from the conversation? Is a rushing touch a greater injury risk than a receiving touch?

 

[lord_helmet]

Why is season rushes the only interesting stat ? Nobody cares about career rushes ?

LJ has less than half the carries than LT, yet nobody talks about him slowing down, maybe I'm missing something but I don't get it.

 

[Banger]

Why is season rushes the only interesting stat ? Nobody cares about career rushes ?LJ has less than half the carries than LT, yet nobody talks about him slowing down, maybe I'm missing something but I don't get it.

I've heard the LT breaking down theory since his 100 catch season. Not working out to well so far. Ya, at some point the breakdown theory/injury may come true but in the meantime you've missed how many seasons of the top/near top RB in FF. I'd rather take the sure production than look like a genius for a lucky injury prediction.

 

[corpcow]

All these LJ haters must be seriously , if not hopefully they will come back after next season to post a bunch of these

He will probably be top 10, probably top 5. People who pick him top 1-2 again will probably be disappointed.The difference between him and LT, as I said above, is not just the NUMBER of carries, but the net result of those carries. LJ has taken - and given - a LOT of contact in those carries.

 

[corpcow]

I see LJ being downgraded due to his heavy workload but haven't seen a mention of SJax and his workload. He also gets pounded like LJ and he had 436 touches compared to LJ's 451 a whopping difference of 15 (less than 1 touch/game). He had 3% fewer touch's which to me is pretty statistically insignificant and runs on turf for 8+ games. Why the inconsistency then and downgrade LJ for his touch's but SJax is immune from the conversation? Is a rushing touch a greater injury risk than a receiving touch?

Simple.... SJax is a man, and LJ wears diapers.

 

[David Yudkin]

All these LJ haters must be seriously , if not hopefully they will come back after next season to post a bunch of these

He will probably be top 10, probably top 5. People who pick him top 1-2 again will probably be disappointed.The difference between him and LT, as I said above, is not just the NUMBER of carries, but the net result of those carries. LJ has taken - and given - a LOT of contact in those carries.

People that get Top 5 production out of a Top 2 pick have NO RIGHT to be disappointed. If you look at the number of Top 1-2 picks over the years that got hurt (Edge, Faulk, Holmes, Alexander, Davis, etc.). getting Top 5 production is still a great outcome.

 

[corpcow]

Agreed. Given his workload (and I don't anticipate it to change much) I don't see how he's not around the top 5. Injury is the main risk he has but that's no different than any other RB, it's part of the game. People can throw around all the stats they want but I don't believe that there is some magic workload # that equals injuries. Some guys get banged up on an average # of carries (foster/Bell/etc.) and others are "lucky", have the skill whatever you want to call it that enables them to handle the workload (i.e. LT, Emmitt, etc.). I wouldn't want miss out on those players just because they get a heavy workload. As an FF owner I want that, I want my guy to get the ball all the time. If he gets injured, he gets injured, it's part of the game and that's where handcuffs/solid bench come into play but when they are playing there's a good chance that they will be at or near the top of their positional rankings.I have a hard evaluating touch's vs. injuries. Personally, I think playing on a turf field is much more of an injury factor than a player getting 40 more touch's (3/game) over the course of a season. I'd rather take the risk on a guy that I know will get a ton of carries.

I said it twice already in this thread alone, but I'm going to say it again. You're right - it's not a magic number of carries, because carries mean different things to different people. Look at the contact that LJ, or Jamal Lewis, or Brandon Jacobs takes on a given carry, and compare that to the contact that LT or Barry or even Westbrook takes.

 

[lord_helmet]

All these LJ haters must be seriously , if not hopefully they will come back after next season to post a bunch of these

He will probably be top 10, probably top 5. People who pick him top 1-2 again will probably be disappointed.The difference between him and LT, as I said above, is not just the NUMBER of carries, but the net result of those carries. LJ has taken - and given - a LOT of contact in those carries.

So I take it you have seen every single KC and SD game for a long time ?

 

[Banger]

All these LJ haters must be seriously , if not hopefully they will come back after next season to post a bunch of these

He will probably be top 10, probably top 5. People who pick him top 1-2 again will probably be disappointed.The difference between him and LT, as I said above, is not just the NUMBER of carries, but the net result of those carries. LJ has taken - and given - a LOT of contact in those carries.

If not him in the 2 spot, then who?I don't disagree on the fact that he gets/receives a lot of contact but if contact = reduced effectiveness I would expect him slow down as the year went on which did not happen. Over time the cumulative contact may/will take it's toll but who says that it will be year 3 and not year 4, 5, 6,.... Also, if he does start to become less effective do people expect him to drop off a cliff? I'd expect the ypc to decrease over time, the injuries mount, etc. I have not seen that yet.

 

[corpcow]

All these LJ haters must be seriously , if not hopefully they will come back after next season to post a bunch of these

He will probably be top 10, probably top 5. People who pick him top 1-2 again will probably be disappointed.The difference between him and LT, as I said above, is not just the NUMBER of carries, but the net result of those carries. LJ has taken - and given - a LOT of contact in those carries.

People that get Top 5 production out of a Top 2 pick have NO RIGHT to be disappointed. If you look at the number of Top 1-2 picks over the years that got hurt (Edge, Faulk, Holmes, Alexander, Davis, etc.). getting Top 5 production is still a great outcome.

Fair enough. As you can probably tell from my wording, I meant probably top 10, maybe top 5 (not probably both - otherwise there's no point to separating the two!). My point was that I thinik he'll underperform his draft position next year - and thus isn't good value, even though he may end the year in the top 10.

 

[Banger]

Agreed. Given his workload (and I don't anticipate it to change much) I don't see how he's not around the top 5. Injury is the main risk he has but that's no different than any other RB, it's part of the game. People can throw around all the stats they want but I don't believe that there is some magic workload # that equals injuries. Some guys get banged up on an average # of carries (foster/Bell/etc.) and others are "lucky", have the skill whatever you want to call it that enables them to handle the workload (i.e. LT, Emmitt, etc.). I wouldn't want miss out on those players just because they get a heavy workload. As an FF owner I want that, I want my guy to get the ball all the time. If he gets injured, he gets injured, it's part of the game and that's where handcuffs/solid bench come into play but when they are playing there's a good chance that they will be at or near the top of their positional rankings.I have a hard evaluating touch's vs. injuries. Personally, I think playing on a turf field is much more of an injury factor than a player getting 40 more touch's (3/game) over the course of a season. I'd rather take the risk on a guy that I know will get a ton of carries.

I said it twice already in this thread alone, but I'm going to say it again. You're right - it's not a magic number of carries, because carries mean different things to different people. Look at the contact that LJ, or Jamal Lewis, or Brandon Jacobs takes on a given carry, and compare that to the contact that LT or Barry or even Westbrook takes.

how about SJax? His running style is similar to LJ IMO but I don't see people predicting his demise and he had nearly the same amount of touches. ETA...didn't see your earlier post...

 

[The Jacket]

He will probably be top 10, probably top 5. People who pick him top 1-2 again will probably be disappointed.

I'd rather take Johnson top 3, have a hell of a shot at a top-10 finish and a very good shot at a top-5 finish than gamble on someone like a, Portis or Gore who are much more likely to bomb completely.

 

[lord_helmet]

Oh yeah and the elusive Westbrook is a picture of health right ? Fair enough LJ can't be compared to LT but he can't be compared to Jamal Lewis either then.

He is built like a truck and is showing no signs of slowing down, and excuse me but I thought the purpose of this thread was identifying who would drop out of the top 10

 

[zamboni]

Why is season rushes the only interesting stat ? Nobody cares about career rushes ?LJ has less than half the carries than LT, yet nobody talks about him slowing down, maybe I'm missing something but I don't get it.

I've heard the LT breaking down theory since his 100 catch season. Not working out to well so far. Ya, at some point the breakdown theory/injury may come true but in the meantime you've missed how many seasons of the top/near top RB in FF. I'd rather take the sure production than look like a genius for a lucky injury prediction.

LT seems committed to breaking Emmitt's rushing record, a record that Emmitt himself said may very well be broken by LT. It may be tough for LT to maintain the kind of production necessary into his 30s that Emmitt did, but it won't be due to lack of conditioning.

 

[Marc Levin]

Why is season rushes the only interesting stat ? Nobody cares about career rushes ?LJ has less than half the carries than LT, yet nobody talks about him slowing down, maybe I'm missing something but I don't get it.

lord_helmet, do you think that folks are not as convinced that LJ is as "established" as a guy like LT? Therefore, maybe they are willing to attribute a fall off due to his high carry load?LT has shown he can take the workload he had this past year without any drop in productivity. In fact, LT's touches are remarkably consistent year to year and he was more productive this year than in any previous year.LJ has just had an incredible 24 game workload. But, he is young enough and has not had enough early career carries that this should not be tremendous factor in your 2007 rankings. A concern? Maybe. A reason to think LJ will fall off? Probably not. There are ample examples of high carry backs who are successful in year N+1.On another note, do you all believe that LT's past year is a "career peak?" If so, how far would his drop be in 2007?

 

[Marc Levin]

how about SJax? His running style is similar to LJ IMO but I don't see people predicting his demise and he had nearly the same amount of touches. ETA...didn't see your earlier post...

Touches do not = carries.There is a study somewhere in the FBG free stuff or in an old thread about backs with 450 touches. The ones that got there primarily due to catches and hovered around the 370 carry mark had much more longevity than the ones who got there primarily by carrying the ball near 400 times.

 

[David Yudkin]

On another note, do you all believe that LT's past year is a "career peak?" If so, how far would his drop be in 2007?

I can't answer for someone else, but IMO looking at LT's career there is one year that doesn't fit with the others. If I had to pick over or under in 2007 vs his 2006 numbers, I clearly would pick UNDER.For those wondering why no one brought up LT's workload vs LJ's workload, I did earlier in this thread. IMO, neither back is more or less likely to get hurt from overuse. HOWEVER, there still is a chance that either or both will. Should one of them get banged up, detractors will certain point to the workload as the causation when they may or may not be a true effect.As I outlined earlier, it is very rare that a RB will get 400 carries on a season, so there is a very high likelihood that Johnson will get fewer carries. But to suggest that he will get hurt BECAUSE of the workload is a step that I am unwilling to take. There have been RBs that have had many years with a lot of carries and were still productive AND had lengthy careers (Emmitt, Martin, etc.). One would think that they will have shorter careers because of it, but it's not like there are 1,000 similar RBs to compare at this point. There's too small a sample size.If you ignored the number of carries that any of these players had and looked solely as how they ranked the following year, historically the balance of power will show that there is a much greater chance that they will do worse in year X + 1. Call it regression to the mean or whatever else the latest catch phrase is.