EBF
Footballguy
NOTES:
- I didn't scout the QBs at all, so what you see here for them is just based on draft position and reputation.
- These rankings assume a generic PPR format where RB/WR are the key positions. In formats that emphasize QB and/or TE, those players might jump up a tier or two.
- Looking ahead, I think I'd like to spend more time trying to parse that big round 2-3 TE cluster. Right now I have a lot of them lumped together.
- On that note, I would say TE is the only position group this year from QB/RB/WR/TE that yielded an above average crop of players. It's the strongest position and if you are in TE-premium formats then I'd strongly consider bucking the ADP trend to consider some of those round 2-3 TEs over the round 2-3 WRs.
- One of the keys to this draft might be solving the round 2-3 WR rankings. There are a lot of them and I have to believe some of those guys will pan out, but as you'll see here I'm relatively down on most of that group at the moment.
- I think this draft is pretty weak at the top and I would equate the 1.02 this year with the 1.05 or 1.06 in a typical year in terms of value.
FIRST TIER
1. RB Josh Jacobs, Raiders - The clear #1 for me. He didn't break a lot of long runs in college and hasn't shown that he can handle a full workload, but he fits the mold of what works in the NFL. A complete three down back with quickness, power, speed, and versatility. Zeke-lite.
2. RB Miles Sanders, Eagles - Not quite a can't-miss guy and if I needed WR help then I would consider bumping him down to the bottom of this tier, as I don't necessarily think he's a better prospect than these WRs. A bit of a power/speed tweener, he's not elite in either category, but has above average straight-line burst and enough size. What sets him apart is his loose hips and quick feet, showing ability in space that evokes past Eagles greats like McCoy and Westbrook.
3. WR AJ Brown, Titans - A big target with nice vertical speed and enough mobility. His play style is in line with other big catch-and-run threats. Not quite as loose as his best comps like Demaryius, Crabtree, and JuJu, but cut from a similar cloth and should present enough positives to win in the NFL and be a steady threat.
4. WR Deebo Samuel, 49ers - Somewhere between Anquan Boldin on the high end and Quincy Enunwa on the low end. A stocky, physical possession WR who will be a nightmare working the middle of the field and making plays after the catch. He's almost TOO bulky, with a BMI that's flirting with TE/RB territory, but it doesn't seem to impact his mobility. He clocked 4.49 at the combine and is a loose open field runner. Lacks great height, catch radius, and downfield game, but is a moving chess piece that could catch 80-90 passes per season.
5. WR N'Keal Harry, Patriots - A throwback big-body possession WR whose impact may parallel someone like Keyshawn Johnson. Not the most dynamic guy despite the occasional highlight reel run after the catch, but moves relatively well for his size and has just enough mobility to create space. Good possession and jump ball potential. He's unlikely to become a superstar, but he can be a consistent chain mover and a multi-year 1000 yard guy.
SECOND TIER
6. WR Marquise Brown, Ravens - His game is all about vertical explosiveness, reminiscent of TY Hilton and DeSean Jackson. He eats people alive running downfield and will be an explosive threat even against the superior defenders in the NFL. At just 5'9" 166 pounds, there are significant concerns about whether or not he will be able to stay healthy in the NFL. He will be one of the smallest players in the league. Jackson and Hilton have managed to stay relatively healthy, but other speedy toothpick WRs like Paul Richardson and Will Fuller have struggled. I like Brown's talent and if I knew he could survive the rigors of the league then I'd have him in the tier above, but durability issues bump him down slightly.
7. QB Kyler Murray, Cardinals - As I mentioned, I didn't spend time scouting these QBs. The #1 pick in the draft with a big reputation. Given that I don't love the other options here, I'll take a chance on the BPA and hope that I'm getting something in the neighborhood of Russell Wilson-Drew Brees as a best case scenario.
8. RB Darrell Henderson, Rams - A difficult prospect to evaluate because his statistics are great and he has some exciting qualities, but his film somehow fails to fully convince me. Henderson is a speed back who uses his impressive acceleration to gash teams up the middle. Though a compact back on paper, his play style is less similar to height/weight peers like Ray Rice and Devonta Freeman, and more comparable to the sprinter types like Darren McFadden, Jamaal Charles, and Chris Johnson. He is more of a north-south slasher who wins with instant speed than an east-west juker who wins with cuts and power. While he is built stronger than Charles/CJ2K/DMC, he lacks the same elite stopwatch speed. I think there's some risk that he's just a spot duty/committee guy, but the ceiling is exciting and that's why I'd roll the dice here.
9. RB David Montgomery, Bears - While I don't hate his game, he goes so high in my drafts that this essentially equates to a "do not draft" rating, since he'll never fall this far in your league. I like his frame and his elite balance. He is a springy back with good feet and hips. He goes to a team where he could start from day one, and is probably one of the frontrunners for FF ROY. However, his game lacks any semblance of vertical speed or explosiveness, reflected in his slow 40 time, low college YPC, and low rate of breaking long runs at the NCAA level. He projects as a grinder who will be reliant on volume to score FF points because he doesn't figure to generate a lot of explosive plays. I think he is slightly overrated and more of a JAG risk than his high rookie ADP would indicate, though if you're looking for instant production then he might be your man for a year or two. I call him Slow Mixon because his elite balance and cutting skills remind me of the Bengals RB, but unlike Mixon he possesses no long speed or explosion. That can be the difference between an elite pro and an average NFL player.
10. RB Damien Harris, Patriots - This feels too high for a player who appears to have a modest ceiling, but I don't love this draft class and I can't help but like what he presents. He has a pro ready frame and a versatile skill set that could translate to a three down role in the future. He is compact and stocky with a little more long speed than given credit for, and just enough cutting ability to make it work. He's not an elite talent and doesn't have the bouncy agility to string together a sequence of moves, but he has juuuust enough agility to slip tackles in the second level and this ability elevates him above your typical replacement level day three grinder. The situation is murky in New England and it's easy to envision Harris being a guy who tops out as a useless 700-800 rushing yards per season type of commodity, but I do think his game is somewhat underrated and there's a chance of him being a Mark Ingram at the pro level. Ultimately, he's a high floor-low ceiling player who offers intriguing value in mandatory 2RB formats, but lukewarm upside for flexy 1RB leagues.
11. WR DK Metcalf, Seahawks - A looks-like-Tarzan-plays-like-Jane type whose explosive SPARQ attributes only roughly translate to the football field. He is genuinely fast on downfield routes, but is a mediocre mover on short-intermediate stuff, playing tight and failing to generate good separation. There's an interesting ceiling if he keeps developing, as the sheer size/speed combo is reminiscent of standouts like Josh Gordon and Julio Jones, but he's nowhere near the fluidity of Julio and right now he looks like an overrated player coasting on reputation and workout numbers.
12. TE TJ Hockenson, Lions - It's rare for a TE to get picked in the top ten and if you're just looking for a safe selection or the best player available then he trumps people like Harris and Metcalf and should be selected ahead of them. However, TE is a devalued position in most formats, meaning he'll have to become a Pro Bowler to be worth a first round rookie pick. I don't like him as much as I liked past first round TE prospects like Winslow, Eifert, and Ebron, but the track record of first round TEs is strong and at worst he looks like he'll be a mid level NFL starter.
13. TE Noah Fant, Broncos - A tall, straight-line strider type who wins with vertical ability. Though he doesn't move as well as people like Hurst and Eifert in his routes and breaks, his straight-line explosiveness for the position is very rare and would seemingly give him a high ceiling. The Broncos did well with Julius Thomas for many years and Fant is potentially a better version of the same type of player. For BPA purposes, you can probably take either Iowa TE as high as #8-9 overall if you don't like the RB/WR options in this tier.
14. WR Andy Isabella, Cardinals - Isabella presents an unusual package of skills and is a difficult projection to the NFL because he has some obvious elite traits and some obvious glaring weaknesses. His speed is as good as anyone in this class. He destroys cushion instantly and covers the first 10-15 yards at lighting speed. While short, he has a compact and sturdy looking frame that should hold up well to the rigors of the job. He was immensely productive in college and managed to get drafted in the 2nd round despite coming from a small program. On the other hand, he is a stubby little guy with short arms and no real catch radius. He will body catch too much and doesn't project as a consistent winner in contested situations. While straight-line fast, his phone booth quickness is just okay and he has a little bit of tightness in his movement. Though he has the speed to play outside, he physically resembles other slot WRs like Cole Beasley and Wes Welker. Those guys found success in the NFL and if Isabella can nail down a job as Murray's safety valve then there's a sneaky ceiling here. In PPR leagues, there's an outside chance that he'll become one of the best players from this draft. However, his atypical game and obvious flaws mark him as a boom-or-bust prospect. I wouldn't want to spend a first round rookie pick on him, but there's a range rin the 12-16 area where the risk/reward equation makes sense.
THIRD TIER
15. WR Mecole Hardman, Chiefs - He'll provide a downfield threat and if it really clicks then you might have Mahomes's version of TY Hilton, but his game film and production don't stack up to that standard, so I skew towards skepticism. The Chiefs tried to fill a need and there's a chance they got it right, but I think he's being overdrafted based on situation and what Mahomes/Hill achieved together. He doesn't appear to be the same caliber of athlete as his predecessor.
16. WR Parris Campbell, Colts - Another guy who doesn't really play up to his combine metrics. He's straight-line fast, but that seems to be about the extent of his elite traits. Average route ability and despite reasonable height/weight, isn't a physical presence on the field. I want to like him because he goes to a team with a great QB in the prime of his career. There's a scenario where he becomes a reliable target for Luck and the Indianapolis version of Emmanuel Sanders, but his film didn't wow me, so I'm passing at his lofty ADP.
17. RB Devin Singletary, Bills - Like Frank Gore, a soft body who didn't shine in combine testing. What he lacks in quantifiable explosiveness he helps make up for with good footwork and cuts. He has good agility and at times will remind you of LeSean McCoy with his sticky plant-and-drive elusiveness. You can see why the Bills selected him as a potential successor to McCoy, as there are some stylistic similarities. While not a huge back, his weight is fine for his height. I liked his tape overall and think he has a chance to succeed, but he's a bad tester who lacks McCoy's outright footspeed (~4.50 vs. 4.65). Will be caught from behind consistently, won't threaten anyone with speed in the NFL, and will have to work tirelessly for every yard. A lot of tread off the tires already. Worth a shot at his modest ADP and is a good candidate for the underrated tag, but not an elite prospect.
18. WR Diontae Johnson, Steelers - These thin, speedy WRs were all the rage in the draft this year, but I'm lukewarm on most of them. Johnson plays much faster than his 4.5 speed and is comparable in some ways to John Brown or Titus Young before he went nuts. All are thin, explosive players who win with burst and speed. I don't see an Antonio Brown ceiling here. He looks like a role player, but his relatively low ADP compared with Campbell/Hardman presents decent value since he's a similar style of player drafted in the same general vicinity, but typically falls a round lower in the rookie draft.
19. WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Eagles - I feel like I'm taking crazy pills with JJAW because I don't see how he's going to win in the NFL, but people seem to like him and he went high in the draft to a team with a good young QB. He has some of the worst movement skills of any WR taken in the top 100 this year. Everything is contested because he can't really run clean routes or separate. On the other hand, he's a great red zone threat and a consistent winner in jump ball situations. Ultimately, I think he's a day three talent with a modest ceiling, but...they took him in the 2nd, so they must see something they like here. I can't ignore the draft slot, but I'm passing at his ADP.
20. RB Alexander Mattison, Vikings - I think he's somewhere in the ballpark of Joique Bell or LeGarrette Blount in terms of his style and talent level. His run skills are solid, but unspectacular. He has a better north-south burst than his 40 time and college production would indicate, but he's not an overly dynamic or creative back. He's a grinder who will complement the smaller, but more dynamic Dalvin Cook. His ability to play all three downs and catch the ball out of the backfield at 220+ pounds is likely what pushed him up into day two of the draft. In the long run he's probably just a backup in the league, but Cook isn't necessarily a durable back and Mattison has nice fill-in potential since he can be a 20+ touch per game player in spurts. Do not take him over these TEs in TE-premium formats, but in RB-heavy leagues consider him as useful depth who will be a sporadic spot starter.
21. TE Irv Smith, Vikings - I like almost all of the TEs in this range and it's hard for me to narrow it down, so I'm just going with the guy who was picked highest. Smith appears to be a good, but not elite athlete with a ceiling as a mid-low level TE1 in FF.
22. TE Jace Sternberger, Packers - A bit like former Cowboys bust Gavin Escobar in terms of being a player who plays more athletic than he tests. His play style is reminiscent of Tyler Eifert, but without the 1st round athleticism. Sternberger's combine metrics don't stack up with the other TEs in this tier, but on the field he is a smooth operator with good route running and receiving skills. Ideally he'd have a bit more SPARQ-iness to his profile, but the landing spot is nice and if it clicks you've got Rodgers's safety valve and a mid-level TE1.
23. TE Kahale Warring, Texans - A work-in-progress who doesn't quite look like a star, but does everything well. Not an elite athlete, but a good one with some burst and a big frame. The upside is there to be a productive starter for the Texans.
24. TE Dawson Knox, Bills - An interesting guy because he's obviously a very good athlete, but they used him sparingly as a receiver. I actually took a look at him last year for a dev draft and liked what I saw, but the problem then was largely the same as it is now: He was used so sparingly as a receiver that there's very little film on him. What I know for sure is that he has plus athleticism for a TE, with a sturdy frame and fluid movement skills. He may be the best pure athlete of the TEs in this tier and there's a nice ceiling to be something like a Chris Cooley type if you can be patient.
25. QB Dwayne Haskins, Redskins - I didn't evaluate him, but on paper his college stats look a lot better than what Jones did. At this stage of the draft I'm happy to take a first round QB.
26. QB Daniel Jones, Giants - This pick by NYG was widely ridiculed and on paper Jones was nothing special at Duke, but I'll assume they have some clue what they're doing and that he could become a Flacco type of QB eventually. He's obviously not exciting anyone, as I actually got him with the 4.10 pick in one league, but at some point you just have to roll the dice on the draft profile.
27. WR Miles Boykin, Ravens - A 4.4 guy who plays like a 4.65 guy, Boykin is a fluid athlete for his size, but doesn't play with the physical dominance that his workout profile suggests. Lacks suddenness and seems like he is thinking too much while playing. A one gear player at the moment. Baltimore has a checkered history of drafting WRs and while they obviously covet big bodies, they'll have to be patient with Boykin because he is not ready to do anything right now. I lean towards him being a nobody on Sundays, but there's some long-term project upside.
28. WR Jalen Hurd, 49ers - They took him high and I like some of what he does. He's a competitive player and a natural football player. I've said that he's a poor man's Keenan Allen and there's a similarity in terms of being taller, leaner WRs who want to win with quickness, range, and RAC skills. However, Hurd isn't as fluid as Allen on the football field and, despite his past as a RB, is surprisingly thin and weak through the lower body. He doesn't appear to have the speed or downfield game to be a great outside WR and his mobility for the slot is just average, so I'm not sure there's an obvious path to FF relevance.
29. WR Terry McLaurin, Redskins - Does he deserve to be this far below Hardman/Campbell/Johnson? Maybe not. He has a similar strengths/weaknesses profile, being a speedster who is average or worse at every other facet of the position. He was a fairly high pick and he goes to a team without a lot of great WR options, so I think he's draftable at his ADP, but his film didn't inspire any real excitement or confidence here.
- I didn't scout the QBs at all, so what you see here for them is just based on draft position and reputation.
- These rankings assume a generic PPR format where RB/WR are the key positions. In formats that emphasize QB and/or TE, those players might jump up a tier or two.
- Looking ahead, I think I'd like to spend more time trying to parse that big round 2-3 TE cluster. Right now I have a lot of them lumped together.
- On that note, I would say TE is the only position group this year from QB/RB/WR/TE that yielded an above average crop of players. It's the strongest position and if you are in TE-premium formats then I'd strongly consider bucking the ADP trend to consider some of those round 2-3 TEs over the round 2-3 WRs.
- One of the keys to this draft might be solving the round 2-3 WR rankings. There are a lot of them and I have to believe some of those guys will pan out, but as you'll see here I'm relatively down on most of that group at the moment.
- I think this draft is pretty weak at the top and I would equate the 1.02 this year with the 1.05 or 1.06 in a typical year in terms of value.
FIRST TIER
1. RB Josh Jacobs, Raiders - The clear #1 for me. He didn't break a lot of long runs in college and hasn't shown that he can handle a full workload, but he fits the mold of what works in the NFL. A complete three down back with quickness, power, speed, and versatility. Zeke-lite.
2. RB Miles Sanders, Eagles - Not quite a can't-miss guy and if I needed WR help then I would consider bumping him down to the bottom of this tier, as I don't necessarily think he's a better prospect than these WRs. A bit of a power/speed tweener, he's not elite in either category, but has above average straight-line burst and enough size. What sets him apart is his loose hips and quick feet, showing ability in space that evokes past Eagles greats like McCoy and Westbrook.
3. WR AJ Brown, Titans - A big target with nice vertical speed and enough mobility. His play style is in line with other big catch-and-run threats. Not quite as loose as his best comps like Demaryius, Crabtree, and JuJu, but cut from a similar cloth and should present enough positives to win in the NFL and be a steady threat.
4. WR Deebo Samuel, 49ers - Somewhere between Anquan Boldin on the high end and Quincy Enunwa on the low end. A stocky, physical possession WR who will be a nightmare working the middle of the field and making plays after the catch. He's almost TOO bulky, with a BMI that's flirting with TE/RB territory, but it doesn't seem to impact his mobility. He clocked 4.49 at the combine and is a loose open field runner. Lacks great height, catch radius, and downfield game, but is a moving chess piece that could catch 80-90 passes per season.
5. WR N'Keal Harry, Patriots - A throwback big-body possession WR whose impact may parallel someone like Keyshawn Johnson. Not the most dynamic guy despite the occasional highlight reel run after the catch, but moves relatively well for his size and has just enough mobility to create space. Good possession and jump ball potential. He's unlikely to become a superstar, but he can be a consistent chain mover and a multi-year 1000 yard guy.
SECOND TIER
6. WR Marquise Brown, Ravens - His game is all about vertical explosiveness, reminiscent of TY Hilton and DeSean Jackson. He eats people alive running downfield and will be an explosive threat even against the superior defenders in the NFL. At just 5'9" 166 pounds, there are significant concerns about whether or not he will be able to stay healthy in the NFL. He will be one of the smallest players in the league. Jackson and Hilton have managed to stay relatively healthy, but other speedy toothpick WRs like Paul Richardson and Will Fuller have struggled. I like Brown's talent and if I knew he could survive the rigors of the league then I'd have him in the tier above, but durability issues bump him down slightly.
7. QB Kyler Murray, Cardinals - As I mentioned, I didn't spend time scouting these QBs. The #1 pick in the draft with a big reputation. Given that I don't love the other options here, I'll take a chance on the BPA and hope that I'm getting something in the neighborhood of Russell Wilson-Drew Brees as a best case scenario.
8. RB Darrell Henderson, Rams - A difficult prospect to evaluate because his statistics are great and he has some exciting qualities, but his film somehow fails to fully convince me. Henderson is a speed back who uses his impressive acceleration to gash teams up the middle. Though a compact back on paper, his play style is less similar to height/weight peers like Ray Rice and Devonta Freeman, and more comparable to the sprinter types like Darren McFadden, Jamaal Charles, and Chris Johnson. He is more of a north-south slasher who wins with instant speed than an east-west juker who wins with cuts and power. While he is built stronger than Charles/CJ2K/DMC, he lacks the same elite stopwatch speed. I think there's some risk that he's just a spot duty/committee guy, but the ceiling is exciting and that's why I'd roll the dice here.
9. RB David Montgomery, Bears - While I don't hate his game, he goes so high in my drafts that this essentially equates to a "do not draft" rating, since he'll never fall this far in your league. I like his frame and his elite balance. He is a springy back with good feet and hips. He goes to a team where he could start from day one, and is probably one of the frontrunners for FF ROY. However, his game lacks any semblance of vertical speed or explosiveness, reflected in his slow 40 time, low college YPC, and low rate of breaking long runs at the NCAA level. He projects as a grinder who will be reliant on volume to score FF points because he doesn't figure to generate a lot of explosive plays. I think he is slightly overrated and more of a JAG risk than his high rookie ADP would indicate, though if you're looking for instant production then he might be your man for a year or two. I call him Slow Mixon because his elite balance and cutting skills remind me of the Bengals RB, but unlike Mixon he possesses no long speed or explosion. That can be the difference between an elite pro and an average NFL player.
10. RB Damien Harris, Patriots - This feels too high for a player who appears to have a modest ceiling, but I don't love this draft class and I can't help but like what he presents. He has a pro ready frame and a versatile skill set that could translate to a three down role in the future. He is compact and stocky with a little more long speed than given credit for, and just enough cutting ability to make it work. He's not an elite talent and doesn't have the bouncy agility to string together a sequence of moves, but he has juuuust enough agility to slip tackles in the second level and this ability elevates him above your typical replacement level day three grinder. The situation is murky in New England and it's easy to envision Harris being a guy who tops out as a useless 700-800 rushing yards per season type of commodity, but I do think his game is somewhat underrated and there's a chance of him being a Mark Ingram at the pro level. Ultimately, he's a high floor-low ceiling player who offers intriguing value in mandatory 2RB formats, but lukewarm upside for flexy 1RB leagues.
11. WR DK Metcalf, Seahawks - A looks-like-Tarzan-plays-like-Jane type whose explosive SPARQ attributes only roughly translate to the football field. He is genuinely fast on downfield routes, but is a mediocre mover on short-intermediate stuff, playing tight and failing to generate good separation. There's an interesting ceiling if he keeps developing, as the sheer size/speed combo is reminiscent of standouts like Josh Gordon and Julio Jones, but he's nowhere near the fluidity of Julio and right now he looks like an overrated player coasting on reputation and workout numbers.
12. TE TJ Hockenson, Lions - It's rare for a TE to get picked in the top ten and if you're just looking for a safe selection or the best player available then he trumps people like Harris and Metcalf and should be selected ahead of them. However, TE is a devalued position in most formats, meaning he'll have to become a Pro Bowler to be worth a first round rookie pick. I don't like him as much as I liked past first round TE prospects like Winslow, Eifert, and Ebron, but the track record of first round TEs is strong and at worst he looks like he'll be a mid level NFL starter.
13. TE Noah Fant, Broncos - A tall, straight-line strider type who wins with vertical ability. Though he doesn't move as well as people like Hurst and Eifert in his routes and breaks, his straight-line explosiveness for the position is very rare and would seemingly give him a high ceiling. The Broncos did well with Julius Thomas for many years and Fant is potentially a better version of the same type of player. For BPA purposes, you can probably take either Iowa TE as high as #8-9 overall if you don't like the RB/WR options in this tier.
14. WR Andy Isabella, Cardinals - Isabella presents an unusual package of skills and is a difficult projection to the NFL because he has some obvious elite traits and some obvious glaring weaknesses. His speed is as good as anyone in this class. He destroys cushion instantly and covers the first 10-15 yards at lighting speed. While short, he has a compact and sturdy looking frame that should hold up well to the rigors of the job. He was immensely productive in college and managed to get drafted in the 2nd round despite coming from a small program. On the other hand, he is a stubby little guy with short arms and no real catch radius. He will body catch too much and doesn't project as a consistent winner in contested situations. While straight-line fast, his phone booth quickness is just okay and he has a little bit of tightness in his movement. Though he has the speed to play outside, he physically resembles other slot WRs like Cole Beasley and Wes Welker. Those guys found success in the NFL and if Isabella can nail down a job as Murray's safety valve then there's a sneaky ceiling here. In PPR leagues, there's an outside chance that he'll become one of the best players from this draft. However, his atypical game and obvious flaws mark him as a boom-or-bust prospect. I wouldn't want to spend a first round rookie pick on him, but there's a range rin the 12-16 area where the risk/reward equation makes sense.
THIRD TIER
15. WR Mecole Hardman, Chiefs - He'll provide a downfield threat and if it really clicks then you might have Mahomes's version of TY Hilton, but his game film and production don't stack up to that standard, so I skew towards skepticism. The Chiefs tried to fill a need and there's a chance they got it right, but I think he's being overdrafted based on situation and what Mahomes/Hill achieved together. He doesn't appear to be the same caliber of athlete as his predecessor.
16. WR Parris Campbell, Colts - Another guy who doesn't really play up to his combine metrics. He's straight-line fast, but that seems to be about the extent of his elite traits. Average route ability and despite reasonable height/weight, isn't a physical presence on the field. I want to like him because he goes to a team with a great QB in the prime of his career. There's a scenario where he becomes a reliable target for Luck and the Indianapolis version of Emmanuel Sanders, but his film didn't wow me, so I'm passing at his lofty ADP.
17. RB Devin Singletary, Bills - Like Frank Gore, a soft body who didn't shine in combine testing. What he lacks in quantifiable explosiveness he helps make up for with good footwork and cuts. He has good agility and at times will remind you of LeSean McCoy with his sticky plant-and-drive elusiveness. You can see why the Bills selected him as a potential successor to McCoy, as there are some stylistic similarities. While not a huge back, his weight is fine for his height. I liked his tape overall and think he has a chance to succeed, but he's a bad tester who lacks McCoy's outright footspeed (~4.50 vs. 4.65). Will be caught from behind consistently, won't threaten anyone with speed in the NFL, and will have to work tirelessly for every yard. A lot of tread off the tires already. Worth a shot at his modest ADP and is a good candidate for the underrated tag, but not an elite prospect.
18. WR Diontae Johnson, Steelers - These thin, speedy WRs were all the rage in the draft this year, but I'm lukewarm on most of them. Johnson plays much faster than his 4.5 speed and is comparable in some ways to John Brown or Titus Young before he went nuts. All are thin, explosive players who win with burst and speed. I don't see an Antonio Brown ceiling here. He looks like a role player, but his relatively low ADP compared with Campbell/Hardman presents decent value since he's a similar style of player drafted in the same general vicinity, but typically falls a round lower in the rookie draft.
19. WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Eagles - I feel like I'm taking crazy pills with JJAW because I don't see how he's going to win in the NFL, but people seem to like him and he went high in the draft to a team with a good young QB. He has some of the worst movement skills of any WR taken in the top 100 this year. Everything is contested because he can't really run clean routes or separate. On the other hand, he's a great red zone threat and a consistent winner in jump ball situations. Ultimately, I think he's a day three talent with a modest ceiling, but...they took him in the 2nd, so they must see something they like here. I can't ignore the draft slot, but I'm passing at his ADP.
20. RB Alexander Mattison, Vikings - I think he's somewhere in the ballpark of Joique Bell or LeGarrette Blount in terms of his style and talent level. His run skills are solid, but unspectacular. He has a better north-south burst than his 40 time and college production would indicate, but he's not an overly dynamic or creative back. He's a grinder who will complement the smaller, but more dynamic Dalvin Cook. His ability to play all three downs and catch the ball out of the backfield at 220+ pounds is likely what pushed him up into day two of the draft. In the long run he's probably just a backup in the league, but Cook isn't necessarily a durable back and Mattison has nice fill-in potential since he can be a 20+ touch per game player in spurts. Do not take him over these TEs in TE-premium formats, but in RB-heavy leagues consider him as useful depth who will be a sporadic spot starter.
21. TE Irv Smith, Vikings - I like almost all of the TEs in this range and it's hard for me to narrow it down, so I'm just going with the guy who was picked highest. Smith appears to be a good, but not elite athlete with a ceiling as a mid-low level TE1 in FF.
22. TE Jace Sternberger, Packers - A bit like former Cowboys bust Gavin Escobar in terms of being a player who plays more athletic than he tests. His play style is reminiscent of Tyler Eifert, but without the 1st round athleticism. Sternberger's combine metrics don't stack up with the other TEs in this tier, but on the field he is a smooth operator with good route running and receiving skills. Ideally he'd have a bit more SPARQ-iness to his profile, but the landing spot is nice and if it clicks you've got Rodgers's safety valve and a mid-level TE1.
23. TE Kahale Warring, Texans - A work-in-progress who doesn't quite look like a star, but does everything well. Not an elite athlete, but a good one with some burst and a big frame. The upside is there to be a productive starter for the Texans.
24. TE Dawson Knox, Bills - An interesting guy because he's obviously a very good athlete, but they used him sparingly as a receiver. I actually took a look at him last year for a dev draft and liked what I saw, but the problem then was largely the same as it is now: He was used so sparingly as a receiver that there's very little film on him. What I know for sure is that he has plus athleticism for a TE, with a sturdy frame and fluid movement skills. He may be the best pure athlete of the TEs in this tier and there's a nice ceiling to be something like a Chris Cooley type if you can be patient.
25. QB Dwayne Haskins, Redskins - I didn't evaluate him, but on paper his college stats look a lot better than what Jones did. At this stage of the draft I'm happy to take a first round QB.
26. QB Daniel Jones, Giants - This pick by NYG was widely ridiculed and on paper Jones was nothing special at Duke, but I'll assume they have some clue what they're doing and that he could become a Flacco type of QB eventually. He's obviously not exciting anyone, as I actually got him with the 4.10 pick in one league, but at some point you just have to roll the dice on the draft profile.
27. WR Miles Boykin, Ravens - A 4.4 guy who plays like a 4.65 guy, Boykin is a fluid athlete for his size, but doesn't play with the physical dominance that his workout profile suggests. Lacks suddenness and seems like he is thinking too much while playing. A one gear player at the moment. Baltimore has a checkered history of drafting WRs and while they obviously covet big bodies, they'll have to be patient with Boykin because he is not ready to do anything right now. I lean towards him being a nobody on Sundays, but there's some long-term project upside.
28. WR Jalen Hurd, 49ers - They took him high and I like some of what he does. He's a competitive player and a natural football player. I've said that he's a poor man's Keenan Allen and there's a similarity in terms of being taller, leaner WRs who want to win with quickness, range, and RAC skills. However, Hurd isn't as fluid as Allen on the football field and, despite his past as a RB, is surprisingly thin and weak through the lower body. He doesn't appear to have the speed or downfield game to be a great outside WR and his mobility for the slot is just average, so I'm not sure there's an obvious path to FF relevance.
29. WR Terry McLaurin, Redskins - Does he deserve to be this far below Hardman/Campbell/Johnson? Maybe not. He has a similar strengths/weaknesses profile, being a speedster who is average or worse at every other facet of the position. He was a fairly high pick and he goes to a team without a lot of great WR options, so I think he's draftable at his ADP, but his film didn't inspire any real excitement or confidence here.
