Which WRs will break out in 2010? (1 Viewer)

[EBF]

I was messing around on the site Bleacher Report last night. I ended up vomiting out an article on this topic. I thought I would post an abridged version here to generate some discussion:

Last year saw several low-profile wide receivers like Miles Austin, Sidney Rice, Steve Smith (NYG), and Mike Sims-Walker emerge from relative obscurity to become reliable every week starters for fantasy teams. Which current low-profile wide receivers might follow their lead and become impact players in the 2010 NFL season?

In order to answer that question, I think it's important to analyze why the aforementioned players were successful. Looking at that group, I think we can identify a few key factors that contributed to their emergence.

Miles Austin - A talented player with a strong combination of size and speed, Austin was held back by a lack of opportunity until the release of Terrell Owens vacated a starting position opposite Roy Williams. Austin won the job and never looked back.

Sidney Rice - The former second round pick out of South Carolina flashed a lot of ability in his rookie season. Many people expected a breakout in 2008, but minor injuries and poor quarterback play held Rice back. Once the team added Brett Favre into the mix, Rice exploded.

Steve Smith - The release of Plaxico Burress and the decline of Amani Toomer created an opportunity for someone to step up and become the top receiver for the Giants. Smith, a former second round pick out of USC, capitalized with a major breakout season.

Mike Sims-Walker - The former third round pick out of Central Florida generated a lot of buzz early in his NFL career for his impressive play in practice, but injuries and a lack of opportunity held him back until the 2009 season. With Reggie Williams and Matt Jones out of the way, Sims-Walker emerged as the top target on the Jaguars.

Noticing any trends? Three of these four players were high draft picks and all four of them benefitted from a sudden increase in opportunity, whether it was through the departure of a high-profile teammate or the addition of a quality quarterback.

If we want to figure out which wide receivers will break out next season, I think we should focus on former high draft picks and players who will benefit from an improved opportunity. Here's a list of candidates by team:

Bills: James Hardy, Steve Johnson

Dolphins: Davone Bess, Greg Camarillo, Brian Hartline, Patrick Turner

Patriots: Julian Edelman, Brandon Tate

Ravens: Donte Stallworth, Mark Clayton

Bengals: Andre Caldwell, Matt Jones

Browns: Mohamed Massaquoi, Brian Robiskie, Chansi Stuckey

Steelers:

Texans: Jacoby Jones

Colts: Pierre Garcon

Jaguars: Mike Thomas, Jarett Dillard, Nate Hughes

Titans: Kenny Britt

Broncos: Eddie Royal, Kenny McKinley

Chiefs:

Raiders: Darrius Heyward-Bey, Chaz Schilens, Louis Murphy

Chargers: Malcom Floyd, Legedu Naanee, Craig Davis

Cowboys: Kevin Ogletree

Giants: Hakeem Nicks

Eagles: Jeremy Maclin

Redskins: Devin Thomas, Malcolm Kelly

Bears: Devin Aromashodu, Johnny Knox, Devin Hester

Lions:

Packers: James Jones, Jordy Nelson

Vikings:

Falcons: Harry Douglas

Panthers: Dwayne Jarrett

Saints: Robert Meachem, Devery Henderson, Adrian Arrington

Buccaneers: Sammie Stroughter

Cardinals: Steve Breaston, Early Doucet

Rams: Donnie Avery, Laurent Robinson, Brandon Gibson

49ers: Michael Crabtree, Josh Morgan, Jason Hill

Seahawks: Nate Burleson, Deon Butler

If we narrow our search to former high draft picks (top 100) who should have improved opportunities in 2010 (either through a vacated starting job or an improved situation), we get the following list:

Brandon Tate

James Hardy

Andre Caldwell

Matt Jones

Jacoby Jones &

Eddie Royal

Darrius Heyward-Bey

Devin Thomas

Malcolm Kelly

Devin Hester

James Jones*

Jordy Nelson*

Harry Douglas

Dwayne Jarrett

Donnie Avery

Laurent Robinson

Early Doucet

& assuming Kevin Walter is not re-signed.

* assuming Donald Driver does not return in 2010.

This is a pretty good initial list. I'm not counting Britt/Maclin/Nicks/Crabtree because they were essentially starters last season and their high profile will make them difficult to acquire at a reasonable price. I also think there are some names that should be added by virtue of their situation and/or displayed potential even if they don't fit all of the criteria.

Julian Edelman

Pierre Garcon

Mike Thomas

Jarett Dillard

Louis Murphy

Chaz Schilens

Devin Aromashodu

Johnny Knox

Combining the two lists gives us:

Brandon Tate

James Hardy

Andre Caldwell

Matt Jones

Jacoby Jones &

Eddie Royal

Darrius Heyward-Bey

Devin Thomas

Malcolm Kelly

Devin Hester

James Jones*

Jordy Nelson*

Harry Douglas

Dwayne Jarrett

Donnie Avery

Laurent Robinson

Early Doucet

Julian Edelman

Matt Jones

Pierre Garcon

Mike Thomas

Jarett Dillard

Louis Murphy

Chaz Schilens

Devin Aromashodu

Johnny Knox

There's a good chance that a few of these guys will make some waves next season. The hard part is figuring out who. My guess is that at least one Bears WR will break 1000 yards. Aromashodu seems like the trendy pick, but he has been a journeyman up to this point in his career. I think Malcolm Kelly, Brandon Tate, Early Doucet, Pierre Garcon, Donnie Avery, Jordy Nelson, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Eddie Royal, and Jacoby Jones all have either the raw talent and/or situational improvement to emerge. I would look to take some cheap gambles on those guys with late draft picks.

 

[RockHard]

IMO Devin Thomas is the next WR to develop into a consistent contributor, last season I wrote the following about Thomas:

I am enamored with Thomas for several reasons;1. He has been an all star caliber player at the high school, junior college, and college level.2. He has elite measurables along with college production3. His sophmore season at MSU he only had 6 catches before exploding for 79 catches and 1260 yards his junior season. Which is extremely telling for a conservative run first coach like Dantonio.4. Washington's WCO is ideally suited for a player of Thomas's skill set, a big physical reciever with good run after the catch ability. I own Thomas in all of my dynasty leagues, and I would advise you to do the same.

My opinion of him hasnt change since writing that, in fact I am more convinced about Thomas after his 7 catch 100 yard 2 TD performance against the Saints. Furthermore Thomas converted a crucial 3rd down against in a win against Denver with an athletic run after the catch where he made a number of defenders miss.

 

[TS Garp]

I also think that a key component for the players you cited was being in a strong offense with a good running game, and, most importantly, a good QB with an arm (people have differing opinions on Garrard, but that could be part of the reason that Sims-Walker didn't break out the extent of the others on your list). Because of this, I downgrade the players on the Raiders and Rams, for example. And I upgrade players on the Patriots, Bears (I know, I know, but he does have an arm), Packers, etc.

Ignoring the more obvious ones (Crabtree, Garcon, Nicks, Macline), the guys I'll be targeting at this point:

Edelman

Jacoby Jones

Kelly

Knox

Jordy Nelson

I know Doucet is a trendy pick, but I'm not 100% sold on Leinart, I think they'll run the ball a lot more, and I just don't know that there will be enough to go around for him to truly break out. Good value pick, though.

 

[loose circuits]

no love for Lance Long (KCC) or Mike Wallace (Pitt). Would think both deserve to be mentioned

 

[EBF]

IMO Devin Thomas is the next WR to develop into a consistent contributor, last season I wrote the following about Thomas:

I am enamored with Thomas for several reasons;1. He has been an all star caliber player at the high school, junior college, and college level.

2. He has elite measurables along with college production

3. His sophmore season at MSU he only had 6 catches before exploding for 79 catches and 1260 yards his junior season.

Which is extremely telling for a conservative run first coach like Dantonio.

4. Washington's WCO is ideally suited for a player of Thomas's skill set, a big physical reciever with good run after the catch

ability.

I own Thomas in all of my dynasty leagues, and I would advise you to do the same.

My opinion of him hasnt change since writing that, in fact I am more convinced about Thomas after his 7 catch 100 yard 2 TD performance against the Saints. Furthermore Thomas converted a crucial 3rd down against in a win against Denver with an athletic run after the catch where he made a number of defenders miss.

I was one of the guys who fell for the Devin Thomas act when he was a draft prospect, but I'm more leery of him now. He's not a natural receiver and he doesn't play up to his measured speed and strength. I went back and recently watched the highlights from the Saints game. He didn't really stand out to me.

I'm favoring Malcolm Kelly in that situation despite the fact that Thomas leapfrogged him on the depth chart last season. Kelly isn't very fast or explosive, but he's bigger and stronger than Thomas and he has much better hands. I also like the early tea leaves about his expected role next season.

Shanahan allegedly assured Kelly that "we're going to find ways to get you the ball." "That was something I haven't even heard before in my two years here," Kelly said. "And it was coming from a guy who I know has went out and won championships. That's one thing that he knows how to do - he finds ways to get his playmakers the ball." Kelly had an 84-yard catch in the Skins' 2009 finale, but has otherwise shown no signs of being a

If you look at what Shanahan did in Denver with Marshall/Royal, I think we could see something similar with Kelly/Moss. Of course, that's assuming that Shanahan likes Kelly more than Thomas (not to mention the suspect health of Kelly's knees). I think it's conceivable that Thomas could end up being the guy to own. I just have more confidence in Kelly. I'm not overly concerned by his lack of production to date because last year was essentially his rookie season (he was hampered by injuries throughout 2008).

 

[EBF]

no love for Lance Long (KCC) or Mike Wallace (Pitt). Would think both deserve to be mentioned

I've heard that the Chiefs want to re-sign Chambers and I don't see Long leapfrogging him or Bowe. Mike Wallace had a nice rookie year, but his role won't expand unless Hines Ward suddenly declines. Ward and Holmes are firmly entrenched as the starters on that team. Wallace will have a tough time exceeding his rookie production barring an injury to one of those two.

 

[Garts]

Michael Crabtree

Robert Meacham

 

[Black]

How about K Ogletree (DAL) and De. Williams (BAL)?

 

[Stinkin Ref]

if we look at what you mentioned early in the post about becoming reliable every week starters.....I would lean towrads these guys...

Garcon

Aromashodu

mostly because I think Garcon is already there....I think he will be entrenched as the #2 in Indy oppposite Wayne, and to me the #2 in Indy is almost always a fantasy starter every week.....Gonzalez coming back seems to be going really slow, and Collie is a great 3rd option, but Garcon seems to have the size, etc to be a great #2....

I picked up Aromashodu last year at the end of the season and started him the last few weeks (17 included in one league) and he produced.....he also seems to have that combination of size and speed and Cutler loves him and made some very positive comments about him at the end of the year.....I think he has that potential to be big time, and I think the situation is good with Cutler, and they will throw quite a bit.....something about Aromashodu reminds me of a guy like Jermichael Finley.....you just know it when you see it, when you watch them play, that they sometimes look like a men among boys....almost a VJ or T. Owens look about them.....could be way off base, but that's what I see.....I would not be surprised if Aromashodu ends up being the #1 in Chicago....

eta: I also will be watching Naanee in SD....think he has similiar skill set.....

 

[SSOG]

I also think that a key component for the players you cited was being in a strong offense with a good running game, and, most importantly, a good QB with an arm (people have differing opinions on Garrard, but that could be part of the reason that Sims-Walker didn't break out the extent of the others on your list). Because of this, I downgrade the players on the Raiders and Rams, for example. And I upgrade players on the Patriots, Bears (I know, I know, but he does have an arm), Packers, etc.Ignoring the more obvious ones (Crabtree, Garcon, Nicks, Macline), the guys I'll be targeting at this point:EdelmanJacoby JonesKellyKnoxJordy NelsonI know Doucet is a trendy pick, but I'm not 100% sold on Leinart, I think they'll run the ball a lot more, and I just don't know that there will be enough to go around for him to truly break out. Good value pick, though.

Why Nelson but not James Jones?

no love for Lance Long (KCC) or Mike Wallace (Pitt). Would think both deserve to be mentioned

Lance Long, maybe, but a key point that EBF was making is that the breakout was preceded by an increase in opportunity, and Wallace's odds of getting an increased opportunity next season are slim-to-none. As long as Ward and Holmes are round, Wallace is a #3 at best (#4 at worst, because Heath Miller is still the go-to guy in the red zone).

 

[EBF]

How about K Ogletree (DAL)

It's possible, but somewhat unlikely, at least in the short term. He's not going to pass Miles Austin. Jason Witten will continue to vulture a ton of targets. Roy Williams is a mediocre player, but he has more experience and a huge contract. I'll be a little bit surprised if they bench him next season.

De. Williams (BAL)?

I think his moment came and went. I'm not sure he'll even make the roster next season. The Stallworth signing is an indictment of Williams and I fully expect the Ravens to look hard at Demaryius Thomas and Arrelious Benn with their first round pick.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

How about K Ogletree (DAL)

It's possible, but somewhat unlikely, at least in the short term. He's not going to pass Miles Austin. Jason Witten will continue to vulture a ton of targets. Roy Williams is a mediocre player, but he has more experience and a huge contract. I'll be a little bit surprised if they bench him next season.

De. Williams (BAL)?

I think his moment came and went. I'm not sure he'll even make the roster next season. The Stallworth signing is an indictment of Williams and I fully expect the Ravens to look hard at Demaryius Thomas and Arrelious Benn with their first round pick.

EBF...what are your thoughts on Marshall going to the Ravens....I know that has been a thought for sometime and I agree with your assessment here on Williams....

 

[EBF]

Why Nelson but not James Jones?

This is sort of like the Thomas/Kelly situation where beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Both Jones and Nelson have shown flashes, but neither has stepped up and definitely proven that Driver is expendable. I'm starting to think that Nelson might be the better bet as Green Bay's long term #2 WR. He's not as physical or quick as Jones after the catch, but he has better downfield speed and more reliable hands. He's actually a very good fit for a WR2 job. He lacks the special qualities to ever become a #1 target, but his solid overall game should allow him to thrive with Jennings and Finley attracting most of the defensive attention. I could see him putting up Kevin Walter numbers in the near future. 60-65 catches for 800-1000 yards with a relatively low ceiling. That would make him a nice depth guy in bigger leagues.

 

[RockHard]

I was one of the guys who fell for the Devin Thomas act when he was a draft prospect, but I'm more leery of him now. He's not a natural receiver and he doesn't play up to his measured speed and strength. I went back and recently watched the highlights from the Saints game. He didn't really stand out to me.

I'm favoring Malcolm Kelly in that situation despite the fact that Thomas leapfrogged him on the depth chart last season. Kelly isn't very fast or explosive, but he's bigger and stronger than Thomas and he has much better hands. I also like the early tea leaves about his expected role next season.

Shanahan allegedly assured Kelly that "we're going to find ways to get you the ball." "That was something I haven't even heard before in my two years here," Kelly said. "And it was coming from a guy who I know has went out and won championships. That's one thing that he knows how to do - he finds ways to get his playmakers the ball." Kelly had an 84-yard catch in the Skins' 2009 finale, but has otherwise shown no signs of being a playmaker

If you look at what Shanahan did in Denver with Marshall/Royal, I think we could see something similar with Kelly/Moss. Of course, that's assuming that Shanahan likes Kelly more than Thomas (not to mention the suspect health of Kelly's knees). I think it's conceivable that Thomas could end up being the guy to own. I just have more confidence in Kelly. I'm not overly concerned by his lack of production to date because last year was essentially his rookie season (he was hampered by injuries throughout 2008).

I big supporter of Thomas like myself would agree that he needed some polish coming into the league having only started one season at Michigan State. The lack of explosiveness/strength that you mentioned may be due to Thomas thinking instead of naturally reacting on the field. I really dont see Kelly as a threat to steal playing time from Thomas, furthermore Thomas's size and run after the catch ability are better suited for Shanahan's WCO than Kelly's skill set. Please watch the following clip and tell me that Thomas isnt Brandon Marshall-esque.

 

[loose circuits]

no love for Lance Long (KCC) or Mike Wallace (Pitt). Would think both deserve to be mentioned

I've heard that the Chiefs want to re-sign Chambers and I don't see Long leapfrogging him or Bowe. Mike Wallace had a nice rookie year, but his role won't expand unless Hines Ward suddenly declines. Ward and Holmes are firmly entrenched as the starters on that team. Wallace will have a tough time exceeding his rookie production barring an injury to one of those two.

I'd love to see Long in the slot with a Welker type gig. I think he has similar styles as Welker. Not quite as shifty, but as better hops. Hines isn't getting any younger and Wallace was as good as anyone when consider production per target. Granted his catch ratio may have been worse than Meachem/Nicks, his 20 ypc make up for it. When you consider that Wallace was such a good deep threat, defenses have to account for him. If I'm Bruce Arians, I'm not overlooking his impact on the offense. I'm drawing up some more plays to use my big play guy. Production of all 3 WR's can only help open up the field for a young RB trying to prove himself. In addition, another year of seasoning/timing under his belt should equal a better rate of return on those 70+ targets.If your going to mention guys like Mckinley, Ogletree, and Stuckey, then Long and Wallace deserve to be in the neighborhood. That is all I'm saying.Mario Urrutia from the Bucs is another guy that could have potential. I think he has legitimate WR1 potential, but needs to find some direction. That's the easiest thing to figure out IMO. Mature and get smarter, quit doing dumb things. Hard for some people, but with that much money on the line you would think he'd be motivated.

 

[finito]

Great thread.

I would put Louis Murphy on the list over DHB. Murphy showed skills last year, he could end up being pretty good.

Also echo the Jacoby Jones, Devin Thomas sentiments.

And, if Laurent Robinson is healthy, I really like him. He looked excellent early in the year before getting hurt.

 

[EBF]

How about K Ogletree (DAL)

It's possible, but somewhat unlikely, at least in the short term. He's not going to pass Miles Austin. Jason Witten will continue to vulture a ton of targets. Roy Williams is a mediocre player, but he has more experience and a huge contract. I'll be a little bit surprised if they bench him next season.

De. Williams (BAL)?

I think his moment came and went. I'm not sure he'll even make the roster next season. The Stallworth signing is an indictment of Williams and I fully expect the Ravens to look hard at Demaryius Thomas and Arrelious Benn with their first round pick.

EBF...what are your thoughts on Marshall going to the Ravens....I know that has been a thought for sometime and I agree with your assessment here on Williams....

It would be a great move for both parties. Marshall is a premiere talent in the prime of his career. He would give the Ravens the physical, big-bodied #1 receiver they've allegedly sought for years. If they can't work something out for a veteran, I think there's a very high chance that they'll pick Demaryius Thomas if he falls to the 25 spot. He's criminally underrated in most mock drafts and I think his actual NFL stock is probably a lot higher than people realize. Cincinnati at #21 and Baltimore at #25 are realistic landing spots. Some might call it a reach, but it would be a great pick.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I think Meachem could have been included in the top list this past year. Notice him vs. Colston from week6 - week16. Almost identical FFL production.

 

[loose circuits]

And, if Laurent Robinson is healthy, I really like him. He looked excellent early in the year before getting hurt.

Brandon Gibson is a roadblock for Robinson IMO. The Eagles loved Gibson, but didn't have room for him on the roster. They carried 7 WR's before they traded him away. Not to mention QB play. Who will it be? Either way, I'm gonna be paying close attention to the Gibson v Robinson training camp battle.

 

[TS Garp]

I also think that a key component for the players you cited was being in a strong offense with a good running game, and, most importantly, a good QB with an arm (people have differing opinions on Garrard, but that could be part of the reason that Sims-Walker didn't break out the extent of the others on your list). Because of this, I downgrade the players on the Raiders and Rams, for example. And I upgrade players on the Patriots, Bears (I know, I know, but he does have an arm), Packers, etc.Ignoring the more obvious ones (Crabtree, Garcon, Nicks, Macline), the guys I'll be targeting at this point:EdelmanJacoby JonesKellyKnoxJordy NelsonI know Doucet is a trendy pick, but I'm not 100% sold on Leinart, I think they'll run the ball a lot more, and I just don't know that there will be enough to go around for him to truly break out. Good value pick, though.

Why Nelson but not James Jones?

Jones has a shot, too (assuming Driver is gone), but I just like Nelson's game more and think he has the better chance to break out. Personal preference, I guess.

 

[EBF]

no love for Lance Long (KCC) or Mike Wallace (Pitt). Would think both deserve to be mentioned

I've heard that the Chiefs want to re-sign Chambers and I don't see Long leapfrogging him or Bowe. Mike Wallace had a nice rookie year, but his role won't expand unless Hines Ward suddenly declines. Ward and Holmes are firmly entrenched as the starters on that team. Wallace will have a tough time exceeding his rookie production barring an injury to one of those two.

I'd love to see Long in the slot with a Welker type gig. I think he has similar styles as Welker. Not quite as shifty, but as better hops. Hines isn't getting any younger and Wallace was as good as anyone when consider production per target. Granted his catch ratio may have been worse than Meachem/Nicks, his 20 ypc make up for it. When you consider that Wallace was such a good deep threat, defenses have to account for him. If I'm Bruce Arians, I'm not overlooking his impact on the offense. I'm drawing up some more plays to use my big play guy. Production of all 3 WR's can only help open up the field for a young RB trying to prove himself. In addition, another year of seasoning/timing under his belt should equal a better rate of return on those 70+ targets.If your going to mention guys like Mckinley, Ogletree, and Stuckey, then Long and Wallace deserve to be in the neighborhood. That is all I'm saying.Mario Urrutia from the Bucs is another guy that could have potential. I think he has legitimate WR1 potential, but needs to find some direction. That's the easiest thing to figure out IMO. Mature and get smarter, quit doing dumb things. Hard for some people, but with that much money on the line you would think he'd be motivated.

Wallace is what he is. He averaged 20 yards per catch and had 750+ receiving yards. I don't see his numbers increasing until he becomes a starter. His opportunity will not expand considerably next season. The other guys you mentioned (McKinley, Ogletree, Stuckey) all play on teams where a starting job could realistically become available next season. They might not be as talented as Wallace, but they don't have two Pro Bowl caliber WRs on the depth chart ahead of them (assuming Roy's job is vulnerable).

 

[EBF]

I think Meachem could have been included in the top list this past year. Notice him vs. Colston from week6 - week16. Almost identical FFL production.

He's a candidate.On the flipside, he was Mr. Invisible in the playoffs, Colston is still better than him, and the Saints will probably continue to spread the ball around, decreasing the value of their individual players.

 

[EBF]

Great thread. I would put Louis Murphy on the list over DHB. Murphy showed skills last year, he could end up being pretty good.Also echo the Jacoby Jones, Devin Thomas sentiments. And, if Laurent Robinson is healthy, I really like him. He looked excellent early in the year before getting hurt.

Murphy made some plays. He was certainly more game-ready than DHB last season, but I think DHB is the superior athlete despite his wretched rookie season. I could see him taking the Meachem career trajectory. Even though he was a huge reach as WR1 in last year's draft, he's not without talent.

 

[TS Garp]

And, if Laurent Robinson is healthy, I really like him. He looked excellent early in the year before getting hurt.

Brandon Gibson is a roadblock for Robinson IMO. The Eagles loved Gibson, but didn't have room for him on the roster. They carried 7 WR's before they traded him away. Not to mention QB play. Who will it be? Either way, I'm gonna be paying close attention to the Gibson v Robinson training camp battle.

I think Robinson is definitely the superior talent, but I don't see any WR on that team truly breaking out if their QB is Michael Vick or Josh Johnson. Look at the WR production in Cleveland, Oakland, Buffalo, and Tampa Bay last year. In most cases, you really need at least a serviceable QB with a good arm for a WR to really break out.

 

[MBilli]

I like the Brandon Tate pick, the Patriots by spent a relatively high pick on him (injuries and all). I am having a tough time seeing where his opportunity will come from in 2010 with Moss and Welker/Edelman. I think his value will only come through once Moss moves on.

I'm not sure where to put my money on Thomas vs. Kelly in Washington. One of the two will shine for the next few years. Kelly's knees scare me so I guess I am leaning towards Thomas.

The Green Bay situation intrigues me. It looks to me like Jones and Nelson will be 2a and 2b for the forseeable future and neither will carry much value until the other is either injured or leaves.

 

[EBF]

I was one of the guys who fell for the Devin Thomas act when he was a draft prospect, but I'm more leery of him now. He's not a natural receiver and he doesn't play up to his measured speed and strength. I went back and recently watched the highlights from the Saints game. He didn't really stand out to me.

I'm favoring Malcolm Kelly in that situation despite the fact that Thomas leapfrogged him on the depth chart last season. Kelly isn't very fast or explosive, but he's bigger and stronger than Thomas and he has much better hands. I also like the early tea leaves about his expected role next season.

Shanahan allegedly assured Kelly that "we're going to find ways to get you the ball." "That was something I haven't even heard before in my two years here," Kelly said. "And it was coming from a guy who I know has went out and won championships. That's one thing that he knows how to do - he finds ways to get his playmakers the ball." Kelly had an 84-yard catch in the Skins' 2009 finale, but has otherwise shown no signs of being a playmaker

If you look at what Shanahan did in Denver with Marshall/Royal, I think we could see something similar with Kelly/Moss. Of course, that's assuming that Shanahan likes Kelly more than Thomas (not to mention the suspect health of Kelly's knees). I think it's conceivable that Thomas could end up being the guy to own. I just have more confidence in Kelly. I'm not overly concerned by his lack of production to date because last year was essentially his rookie season (he was hampered by injuries throughout 2008).

I big supporter of Thomas like myself would agree that he needed some polish coming into the league having only started one season at Michigan State. The lack of explosiveness/strength that you mentioned may be due to Thomas thinking instead of naturally reacting on the field. I really dont see Kelly as a threat to steal playing time from Thomas, furthermore Thomas's size and run after the catch ability are better suited for Shanahan's WCO than Kelly's skill set. Please watch the following clip and tell me that Thomas isnt Brandon Marshall-esque.

It was a nice run after the catch. That doesn't make him Brandon Marshall.Marshall is a huge target who catches everything thrown his way. Throw it up and he'll catch it. Thomas doesn't have that quality to his game, but Kelly does.

Neither one of these guys is as good as Marshall. Kelly doesn't have Marshall's quickness or speed. Thomas doesn't have Marshall's hands or size. Which of the two will be starting opposite Moss? I think it will be a close battle, but I'm placing my bets on Kelly. Shanahan has shown a preference for tall WRs who can win jump balls (Marshall, Walker, Marcus Nash). Kelly would give him the big possession target he covets whereas Thomas would give him a slightly bigger, more inconsistent version of Santana Moss. I think Kelly brings more value to the lineup and I expect him to be the more prominent factor.

 

[smackdaddies]

Percy Harvin. Great Rookie Season. If his BF comes back, it's are 10td Sophomore season

 

[Fullback Fro]

Percy Harvin. Great Rookie Season. If his BF comes back, it's are 10td Sophomore season

what?

 

[Black]

eta: I also will be watching Naanee in SD....think he has similiar skill set.....

Naanee is interesting, esp with impending suspension for VJax, and I *think* both VJax and Floyd could still end up somewhere else, even if tendered?

 

[Stinkin Ref]

just want to add that I also like Wallace in Pitt....I think Ben likes him too and is gaining more confidence in him.....Ben is not scred to look for Wallace when he needs a big play....I think he will start demanding more playing time/looks with his ability to make plays....even with Ward and Holmes in town....

 

[loose circuits]

no love for Lance Long (KCC) or Mike Wallace (Pitt). Would think both deserve to be mentioned

I've heard that the Chiefs want to re-sign Chambers and I don't see Long leapfrogging him or Bowe. Mike Wallace had a nice rookie year, but his role won't expand unless Hines Ward suddenly declines. Ward and Holmes are firmly entrenched as the starters on that team. Wallace will have a tough time exceeding his rookie production barring an injury to one of those two.

I'd love to see Long in the slot with a Welker type gig. I think he has similar styles as Welker. Not quite as shifty, but as better hops. Hines isn't getting any younger and Wallace was as good as anyone when consider production per target. Granted his catch ratio may have been worse than Meachem/Nicks, his 20 ypc make up for it. When you consider that Wallace was such a good deep threat, defenses have to account for him. If I'm Bruce Arians, I'm not overlooking his impact on the offense. I'm drawing up some more plays to use my big play guy. Production of all 3 WR's can only help open up the field for a young RB trying to prove himself. In addition, another year of seasoning/timing under his belt should equal a better rate of return on those 70+ targets.If your going to mention guys like Mckinley, Ogletree, and Stuckey, then Long and Wallace deserve to be in the neighborhood. That is all I'm saying.Mario Urrutia from the Bucs is another guy that could have potential. I think he has legitimate WR1 potential, but needs to find some direction. That's the easiest thing to figure out IMO. Mature and get smarter, quit doing dumb things. Hard for some people, but with that much money on the line you would think he'd be motivated.

Wallace is what he is. He averaged 20 yards per catch and had 750+ receiving yards. I don't see his numbers increasing until he becomes a starter. His opportunity will not expand considerably next season. The other guys you mentioned (McKinley, Ogletree, Stuckey) all play on teams where a starting job could realistically become available next season. They might not be as talented as Wallace, but they don't have two Pro Bowl caliber WRs on the depth chart ahead of them (assuming Roy's job is vulnerable).

Hines Ward is what 34 or 35? Before this season, people question his durability as he missed 7 games in the previous 3 years. The wheels usually fall off pretty fast once you get to that point.McKinley is behind Royal, Marshall, and Mcdainel's boy Gaffney while coming off a serious knee injury. I am rootiing for him just don't see his odds of breaking out better than Wallace's. In fact, I don't have them anywhere close to the same ballpark. Ogletree is behind 1 guy getting paid and another that looks to be the franchise darling. Stuckey can compete with Robiskie, but the QB play there is gonna hold any WR's back especially the WR2. Will also have to compete with Evan Moore (who flashed serious potential) for targets. All these guys have holes, or they wouldn't be candidates for breakout- they would have already done it.

 

[TS Garp]

eta: I also will be watching Naanee in SD....think he has similiar skill set.....

Naanee is interesting, esp with impending suspension for VJax, and I *think* both VJax and Floyd could still end up somewhere else, even if tendered?

They'll both be back. I was less impressed with Naanee this season. He's a good x factor but isn't a particularly good route runner and has very little upside, imo.

 

[Malabar]

WRs that may breakout > 1000 yd season, if everything aligns (QB etc etc)

Laurent Robinson - #1 receiver, WC offense

Pierre Garcon - good enough offense to support 2 1k yard WRs

700+ yds

one of Johnny Knox or Hester

Brandon Tate - if he's healthy, could be on track for a year 3 breakout.

one of Jordy/James Jones - Finley lining up as WR hurts their chances though.

Jacoby Jones - if he's WR2 opposite Andre.

 

[SSOG]

I like the Brandon Tate pick, the Patriots by spent a relatively high pick on him (injuries and all). I am having a tough time seeing where his opportunity will come from in 2010 with Moss and Welker/Edelman. I think his value will only come through once Moss moves on.I'm not sure where to put my money on Thomas vs. Kelly in Washington. One of the two will shine for the next few years. Kelly's knees scare me so I guess I am leaning towards Thomas.The Green Bay situation intrigues me. It looks to me like Jones and Nelson will be 2a and 2b for the forseeable future and neither will carry much value until the other is either injured or leaves.

I like Tate a lot, too. In addition to the fact that he was a legit prospect in college before his injury and the fact that the Pats spent a premium pick on him despite the injury, there's also the fact that the Pats didn't put him on IR early in the season. I suppose it partly speaks to the erosion of the talent level on the Pats (once upon a time, half of their draft picks wouldn't even make the team and they'd be putting people on IR for maladies that were far less serious), but it also means that the Pats were convinced he could have provided value to them LAST YEAR. The fact that he injured his knee again and eventually landed on IR, anyway, are both negatives... but I wasn't particularly impressed with Edelman. With Welker/Moss both facing some uncertainty over the next few years, I think Tate is a guy who could surprise a lot of people.

 

[Da Guru]

Hopefully Calvin Johnson.

 

[crazy8]

Plaxico Burress he's the only one right now behind bars who has a chance to break out !

 

[Blackjacks]

Louis Murphy, Brian Hartline and Devin Thomas and my 3 to watchout for

 

[jdswan922]

What about Earl Bennett? He seems to meet all of your qualifications. 2008 pick #70 (round 3, pick 7), so he is a former high pick. I imagine you consider the situation in Chicago improved because you include the other 3 WR on the team. He is not dissimilar to Steve Smith in many respects.

 

[TS Garp]

What about Earl Bennett? He seems to meet all of your qualifications. 2008 pick #70 (round 3, pick 7), so he is a former high pick. I imagine you consider the situation in Chicago improved because you include the other 3 WR on the team. He is not dissimilar to Steve Smith in many respects.

One of the Bears' WR's is likely to break out, it's just a question of which one. Or perhaps 3 of them all increase in value but none of them becomes a true WR1. But there's definitely opportunity there.

 

[EBF]

What about Earl Bennett? He seems to meet all of your qualifications. 2008 pick #70 (round 3, pick 7), so he is a former high pick. I imagine you consider the situation in Chicago improved because you include the other 3 WR on the team. He is not dissimilar to Steve Smith in many respects.

I forgot about him. I feel like he had his chance this past season and didn't capitalize (I also sort of feel that way about Hester). Maybe that's a premature conclusion. Knox and Aromashodu seem like the trendy options at the moment though.

 

[identikit]

just want to add that I also like Wallace in Pitt....I think Ben likes him too and is gaining more confidence in him.....Ben is not scred to look for Wallace when he needs a big play....I think he will start demanding more playing time/looks with his ability to make plays....even with Ward and Holmes in town....

I think Wallace improves upon his rookie season.He's not just a deep threat/one-trick pony as some people believe.

 

[DesmondBishop]

What about Austin Collie, he did pretty well for a rookie, it looks like Garcon will be the #2 but Manning always spreads the ball around.

 

[Couch Potato]

I like Massaquoi if somehow the Browns end up with a starting QB not named Anderson or Quinn. He had a couple games where he showed nice promise in his rookie year, and he was Matt Stafford's college WR prior to that.

 

[noneother]

Mike Thomas jax.

 

[ClownDogs]

What about Earl Bennett? He seems to meet all of your qualifications. 2008 pick #70 (round 3, pick 7), so he is a former high pick. I imagine you consider the situation in Chicago improved because you include the other 3 WR on the team. He is not dissimilar to Steve Smith in many respects.

I forgot about him. I feel like he had his chance this past season and didn't capitalize (I also sort of feel that way about Hester). Maybe that's a premature conclusion. Knox and Aromashodu seem like the trendy options at the moment though.

I semi agree with this, but they had him learning all WR positions, and as a first or 2nd year guy, that is a tough thing to do. I still think personally that Aromashodu is the guy to have in Chi, but no real or concrete evidence to support it.(just like that Wayne said he is a stud in waiting)Can't really argue if someone were to say Know or Bennett either, all had their moment with cutler, just Aromashodu was the end of the season and we remember that the most.

 

[GreatLakesMike]

I like Massaquoi if somehow the Browns end up with a starting QB not named Anderson or Quinn. He had a couple games where he showed nice promise in his rookie year, and he was Matt Stafford's college WR prior to that.

He also looked like Braylon Edwards at times. Stone hands.

 

[Couch Potato]

I like Massaquoi if somehow the Browns end up with a starting QB not named Anderson or Quinn. He had a couple games where he showed nice promise in his rookie year, and he was Matt Stafford's college WR prior to that.

He also looked like Braylon Edwards at times. Stone hands.

Stone hands overstates it I think. Guys with stone hands aren't usually 2nd round picks or put up some of the numbers he's already put up. He doesn't have great hands that's true, but Terrell Owens has never been known for having great hands either. The thing is, if a guy is a playmaker who can come up with big plays, teams will make a point of trying to get him the ball. I think Massaquoi MAY end up being that kind of guy. He had weeks of 8-148, 5-83, 5-115-1, and 3-61-1 as a rookie on a team with a couple of seriously below average QBs. I think MM shows a lot of promise.

 

[Birdie048]

Interesting topic. It's almost like "Who is your Sleeper WR in 2010?"

My list of WR who could break out.... hitting the 1000 yard receiving mark as the criteria ...maybe for the 1st time:

K Britt Tenn

J Maclin Phil

M Massaquoi Clev

M Floyd SD

M Thomas Jax

M Kelly Wash

J Morgan SF

Britt is a real talent. He will emerge as Tenn WR1.

Maclin showed some of his potential in 2009. He will continue to rise and DeSean Jax will make his life easier.

Massaquoi has to improve a few issues with his game & get a QB, but he as the opportunity

Mike Thomas should win the slot role in Jax

Josh Morgan will benefit from Crabtree across and emerge as a good target.

 

[Willie Mays Hayes]

Devin Thomas

James Jones

Donnie Avery

Mike Thomas

Pierre Garcon (added)

I think these 5 guys above represent some pretty appealing targets to go out and grab in the offseason. Garcon is probably already too expensive based on his year but maybe the others can still be had on the cheap.

 

[az_prof]

I know I am the "minority report" when it comes to Bear's WRs, but I just don't see how people can so easily discount Earl Bennett. You mention that being a high draft pick in his second or third year who gets an opportunity is a common factor for break out WRs. Well....

Of the Bear's WRs Bennett is a 3rd round pick; Knox a 5th; and Aromashodu, 7th.

Age? Bennett is the youngest actually, at 22; Knox is 23; Aromashdu is 25.

Bennett performed better according to several matrixes I have posted in other threads here (Catch %; YPC; YAC).

About all he didn't do as well was get in the EZ, but EBF, you yourself have pointed out that TDs for WRs is one of the most variable of statistics.

Put me down as thinking that any of those guys is a good breakout candidate, especially with Martz as the new OC. Which one? I wouldn't bank all my money any one but I WOULD go after the one who is least expensive and easiest to get because he will be the best gamble.