dickey moe
Fingerpicker
Go.
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Who among these "sure things" is most likely to disappoint (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter dickey moe
- Start date
Quint
Footballguy
CentralPA
Footballguy
I'm sure the Texans coaching staff will find more than enough plays involving the best player on their team. I'd be more worried about durability with Foster than decrease in touches.
chickensoup
Footballguy
Depends on What you consider disappointing. Taking injuries out of the equation it has to be either Gronk or graham. They are going way higher than TE traditionally go only because they put up WR 1numbers. They can be TE1 and 2 this year but be more towards 1100 yards 10 TD 80 catches and not be worth their draft position. even if say, Megatron is the 5th best receiver he is still arguably worth his draft slot because he will be consistently good for you at a position that requires 2 sometimes 3 players
wiscstlatlmia
Footballguy
Honestly, none if they stay healthy.
Shutout
Footballguy
Shaub healthy HELPS Foster. Tate isn't a lurking vulture. Foster gets the lionshare, regardless. He is much more dynamic and the texans want FOSTER in the passing game. The presumption of a threat of Tate to Foster is vastly overrated. Tate's value is directly tied to a Foster injury and little else.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
arent Brady and Brees sure things?
Shutout
Footballguy
Calvin will be the most "disappointing". In order to "disappoint", then people have to generally NOT expect the outcome. A lot of people "expect (or can see reasons for) Gronk to regress some. But, for some reason, everyone thinks Calvin is just going to keep on keeepin' on, while ignoring that he has had his own ebbs and flows in the past, that the Lions almost MUST run more, should be slightly improved defensively, etc.
Not saying Calvin sucks this year. He will probably still be a top 5-9WR. But he is so universally and blindly expected to be WR1 by a mile that even if he finishes WR4, there's gonna be people whining about how they took him so high and "he wasn't any better than Fitz and I coulda had him in the 2nd", etc.
Its kinda semantics because they are all great players and all will play great, barring injury, but from perception/expectation to reality, Calvin has the farthest to "fall".
Not saying Calvin sucks this year. He will probably still be a top 5-9WR. But he is so universally and blindly expected to be WR1 by a mile that even if he finishes WR4, there's gonna be people whining about how they took him so high and "he wasn't any better than Fitz and I coulda had him in the 2nd", etc.
Its kinda semantics because they are all great players and all will play great, barring injury, but from perception/expectation to reality, Calvin has the farthest to "fall".
EA Sports answered this for you already....
EBF
Footballguy
Foster is more dynamic, but he had a lower YPC?Foster is a better receiver than Tate. Beyond that, it's not certain that he's the better RB. I feel like McCoy and Rice (and others) have a much lower risk of losing significant carries to a teammate.
Area51Inhabitant
Footballguy
I'm thinking that Hernandez will outscore Gronk in 2012. I'm not sure that makes Gronk a disappointment but those that draft him in round 1 will likely be chafed about it.
MAC_32
Footballguy
This is why I don't put much thought and effort into the first couple of rounds. Leagues are won later in the draft and on waivers.
Shutout
Footballguy
All I can reply is to say I've watched all the games for the last 5 years and since Foster ahs been there, its obvious to me how much the Texans think of Foster. I don't know your definition of "significant" carries. If you mean pure volume, then I can agree because the Texans will run A LOT at times. If you mean by percentage, then no. Foster gets 75%+ of the carries. We can discuss YPC and situaitons and all that other stuff until the cows come home. The proof is in the production and Rice/McCoy/Foster are all lumped interchangeably across 99% of the consensus boards for a reason...because they are relatively similar. But when the Texans play, its obvious its the foster show and nothing more. Like I said, people hype tate based on injury. And he's good enough to IF Foster is out, then he could produce well (but not like Foster). But, sans injury, Tate is really no more valuable to a fantasy teams than any random RB on the Redskins on any given week, DWIL on the Panthers, or Gerhart on the Vikes. All can potentially get you 4 points or 17, depending on how the game unfolds, but none are must haves. JMO.
wiscstlatlmia
Footballguy
Bingo, grab handcuffs for RBs and be at the will of fantasy gods at the rest of the positions..
Dought Man
Footballguy
How many games has he missed in his career? I'll hang up and listen..
V1LL
Footballguy
Being a WR drafted by Matt Millen is a much worse curse than the Madden cover....he's beaten that..no worries
Roy Williams didn't live up to the hype but I wouldn't call him a major bust in the way of Mike Williams, Charles Rogers, Troy Williamson, Ted Ginn, and others. By the way the answer is Calvin has missed 4 games, I am pretty sure he has been taken out of a few games early too.
Dragon1952
Footballguy
Gronk....just way too much competition for targets in that offense compared to the others in the poll, and way more 'room' for regression IMO.
dickey moe
Fingerpicker
I thought Gronk would probably get the most votes but didn't think it would be this high. Now I wish I would've omitted him from the poll.
JamesTheScot
Footballguy
I voted Gronk. But my second choice was McCoy.
I like McCoy, but I think he can't keep producing if the o-line keeps being that bad. At some point the 8 yards and 9 cuts he has to run to get a 3 yard gain is going to wear him down.
I like McCoy, but I think he can't keep producing if the o-line keeps being that bad. At some point the 8 yards and 9 cuts he has to run to get a 3 yard gain is going to wear him down.
This was my vote as well. I'm an Eagles fan and I watched most of their games last year. McCoy must lead the league in rushes less than -2 yards. There were so many plays where it's either a well read by the defense or a poorly designed draw and McCoy lost a few yards. When this type of play succeeds, McCoy usually gets a large gain, but when it doesn't it looks bad and it leaves him open for a big hit. I couldn't find stats for most negative rushes in 2012. If anyone has these numbers and can share, I would be very appreciative.
dehaven123
Footballguy
im inclined to agree.none stood out.id say gronk if i had to pick one, due to the ankle thing and lloyd.
packseasontix
Footballguy
I would say Gronk even if he is healthy I don't see him putting up those numbers again or even come close if Brady is on his game and spreading the ball.
dickey moe
Fingerpicker
So is there consensus that Graham's situation this year and in the near future is superior to Gronk's? Curious that not many seem to be forecasting the kind of drop-off for Graham that they are for Gronkowski. Does it come down to competition for targets and his injury, and is that basically it?
fightingillini
Footballguy
In Moss' defense, Brady did tear his ACL in game one in 2008. Moss did quite well given a green Matt Cassel was his QB. Not a fair assessment.
fightingillini
Footballguy
This depends on what your definition of "disappoint" means.
Is Gronkowski going to match last year's numbers? Of course not. But even with Lloyd in the mix, Gronkowski is still going to get 75 rec for over 1000 yards and 12 or so TDs. That may not be 1st round material, but it's far cry from "disappointing".
I have heard that Lloyd will take away from Gronkowski the most, and from seeing what people are projecting for Welker. Not sure why. Lloyd is going to take most from Welker, and some from Herandez and Gronkowski. Also, Brady has a great shot at 5000 yards again and at least 35 TD passes. You tell me how Brady goes for say 5000/38 and Gronkowski NOT get a year like 80/1150/13? If that's disappointing....oh well.
The correct answer IMO is none of them are likely to disappoint. All should have huge seasons and be top 15 selections in terms of value. In terms of likeliness to disappoint, I would probably rank them
Most likely - McCoy followed by Calvin, Gronkowski, Graham, Foster, Rice, and Rodgers. One will certainly disappoint....good luck predicting which one it is.
Is Gronkowski going to match last year's numbers? Of course not. But even with Lloyd in the mix, Gronkowski is still going to get 75 rec for over 1000 yards and 12 or so TDs. That may not be 1st round material, but it's far cry from "disappointing".
I have heard that Lloyd will take away from Gronkowski the most, and from seeing what people are projecting for Welker. Not sure why. Lloyd is going to take most from Welker, and some from Herandez and Gronkowski. Also, Brady has a great shot at 5000 yards again and at least 35 TD passes. You tell me how Brady goes for say 5000/38 and Gronkowski NOT get a year like 80/1150/13? If that's disappointing....oh well.
The correct answer IMO is none of them are likely to disappoint. All should have huge seasons and be top 15 selections in terms of value. In terms of likeliness to disappoint, I would probably rank them
Most likely - McCoy followed by Calvin, Gronkowski, Graham, Foster, Rice, and Rodgers. One will certainly disappoint....good luck predicting which one it is.
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
Voted Calvin for pretty much all the above.Im shocked Gronk is "losing" this in a landslide. Yes, he will lose some targets, but I dont get the point some people tried to make about coaches/defense having a year to prepare for him. If the dude is freaking unguardable, which Im inclined to say he is, he will continue to post monster numbers.Mr.Underhill
Footballguy
Yes.But for me, there's also a little bit of the knuckle-head factor in play. I sometimes get the feeling that he's buying into his own hype and may be starting to slip into being the character rather than the person. It's just a gut feeling. When we see him file a change of name petition and have his jersey read "The Gronk", we'll know.
So that's my contribution: a little bit of baseless and unqualified armchair psychology.
cheese
Footballguy
Great point. It's a hard thing to quantify, but the person does matter when we're discussing the odds of something unforseen happening. All of these guys should be locks for football reasons. If one of them was going to screw it up for himself, my money would be on Gronk.Yes.But for me, there's also a little bit of the knuckle-head factor in play. I sometimes get the feeling that he's buying into his own hype and may be starting to slip into being the character rather than the person. It's just a gut feeling. When we see him file a change of name petition and have his jersey read "The Gronk", we'll know.
So that's my contribution: a little bit of baseless and unqualified armchair psychology.
LoL u have no worries my friend
bigmiiiiike
Footballguy
I agree with this. Gronk and Graham may not produce the gaudy stats from last year, but if I had to bet, they would be the MOST likely to finish the season in the top 3 at their position. Rodgers too. QB and TE have the lowest turnover in the top 5 and 10, and RBs have the most turnover. FBG ran a series of articles on turnover at all of the positions, and RBs by far were the least likely to repeat, so just by the numbers, I'd say the answer has to be one of the RBs. I'll vote for Foster if I have to pick one.
Grateful Parrot
Footballguy
Link please?
He put up 1000+ with 11 TDs, with MATT CASSELL at QB, because the "only think [sic] ever consistant [sic]" Brady was out for the year. The next year (with Brady back), he was the #2 WR.That being said, I agree that Gronk is the most likely to "disappoint," especially if a repeat (or close to it) of last year is expected.
I see where you are coming from, and I agree that with a young guy who has demonstated some questionable decisions (the porn star pic, and dancing after the SB on a bad ankle), it is a "slight" concern. I would be SHOCKED however, if he tries to change his name to "The Gronk;" BB might strangle him with his hoodie.Yes.But for me, there's also a little bit of the knuckle-head factor in play. I sometimes get the feeling that he's buying into his own hype and may be starting to slip into being the character rather than the person. It's just a gut feeling. When we see him file a change of name petition and have his jersey read "The Gronk", we'll know.
So that's my contribution: a little bit of baseless and unqualified armchair psychology.
CentralPA
Footballguy
He also won't have Jason Peters anchoring the left for him this year. I think Reid also wants to limit his carries. I could see Shady being a Top 10 but maybe not a top 5 back (except for maybe PPR).
BlueDredSo
Footballguy
What the hell were the other owners doing while you were snatching these guys up?Similar threads
