...Holocomb... = not so good.
While I like Evans upside, you have him a tier too high.
The two times I've seen Holcomb called on to be THE quarterback for his team, he looked pretty good...Last year, he had a 67.4% completion percentage for Buffalo, which is outstanding. I admit, his yards per attempt were a bit low at 6.6 (I'd like to see 7+) and his TD:INT ratio of 5:4 was a concern (I much prefer 5:3). The major concern, though, is that Holcomb cannot complete a season. That said, if Holcomb gets enough attempts, his high percentage of completion should get the ball into Evans' hands enough for him to be successful.
The mark I have for Evans isn't dependant on Holcomb playing all 16 games. All Evans needs is for Holcomb and Lossman to combine for about 3200 yards and 19 touchdowns. With that pool of fantasy points, he should be able to gather enough of them to be in the third tier. Do you see any threats on the Bills to Evans' percentage of targets?