Who are you down on compared to the FF community? (1 Viewer)

[Run It Up]

If you watched Lewis last year, it wasn't just where he compared to other backs in the same time frame it was how he looked doing it.

I'm not expecting him to be a top 5 back, he isn't being drafted as such - but I would not be surprised at all to see him finish top 5.

The comparisons to Sanders are accurate.

 

[MattFancy]

For me, it's Dez Bryant. He just doesn't get the targets that the other Elite WRs get. Plus, Dallas has said they plan on running a bit more to keep Romo healthy, so that lowers Dez's targets even more. And do we really trust that Romo can stay healthy this season?

 

[FF Ninja]

ESPN splits don't use terms like "trailing big." They show splits for leading by 9-16 points, leading by 1-8 points, tied, trailing by 1-8 points, and trailing by 9-16 points. You can do the math to determine the numbers for leading or trailing by 17+ points or by 9+ points. I used 9+ points because it is two scores. I don't know what the FBG definition is, so not sure if it is apples to apples, but the numbers were obviously very close.

True garbage time would actually require more effort, since being down by 9+ points in the first quarter doesn't equate to garbage time.

I agree. I just like using the readily available FBG stats. Given that I don't know all the details, I didn't mean to make a huge deal about garbage time, but felt it was a point worth making since roughly twice the % of points came from "trailing big" vs. two of his peers.

 

[Anarchy99]

If you watched Lewis last year, it wasn't just where he compared to other backs in the same time frame it was how he looked doing it.

I'm not expecting him to be a top 5 back, he isn't being drafted as such - but I would not be surprised at all to see him finish top 5.

The comparisons to Sanders are accurate.

I would be pretty surprised if Lewis ranked in the Top 5 for a full season. He's a 10-15 touches per game back that will rarely get 10 carries. Not sure any back is going to be a Top 5 back with 6-8 carries and 5-6 receptions a game unless he breaks some long plays or gets in the end zone quite a bit. He's probably looking at 100-120 carries and 60-80 receptions if he stays healthy. Call it 500 rushing yards and 600 receiving yards. Maybe 7 TD. In 0 ppr leagues, that would be 152 fantasy points, which last year would have ranked 16th (but with one more TD would have ranked 12th). In PPR leagues, last year that same extra TD could have impacted whether he ranked 8th or 15th (as there were many backs packed together).

I really don't see Lewis being used a lot more running the football, so he will have to do a lot of damage as a receiver Like always, Lewis will be a match up nightmare some weeks and he might of 8 receptions, while other weeks the Pats may go in a different direction based on the opponent. Just like with Vereen, having a ton of receptions in half of a season doesn't always turn out to play out at the same rate over a full season. A lot will depend on who stays healthy on the offense.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I would be pretty surprised if Lewis ranked in the Top 5 for a full season. He's a 10-15 touches per game back that will rarely get 10 carries. Not sure any back is going to be a Top 5 back with 6-8 carries and 5-6 receptions a game unless he breaks some long plays or gets in the end zone quite a bit. He's probably looking at 100-120 carries and 60-80 receptions if he stays healthy. Call it 500 rushing yards and 600 receiving yards. Maybe 7 TD. In 0 ppr leagues, that would be 152 fantasy points, which last year would have ranked 16th (but with one more TD would have ranked 12th). In PPR leagues, last year that same extra TD could have impacted whether he ranked 8th or 15th (as there were many backs packed together).

I really don't see Lewis being used a lot more running the football, so he will have to do a lot of damage as a receiver Like always, Lewis will be a match up nightmare some weeks and he might of 8 receptions, while other weeks the Pats may go in a different direction based on the opponent. Just like with Vereen, having a ton of receptions in half of a season doesn't always turn out to play out at the same rate over a full season. A lot will depend on who stays healthy on the offense.

I think most that are high on Lewis are playing PPR leagues.  1100/7 is not great until you put it alongside 75 receptions (lower than his pace last year), then it is pretty darn good.

Discounting the game where he left early last year, Lewis' pace was 1517 yards and 11 TDs on 85 receptions.  I don't think many are expecting that but even a decent dropoff from it would put him in solid RB1 status if he stays healthy and Belichick shenanigans aren't too crazy.  Big "ifs", sure, but that's why he's not being drafted in the first round.

 

[Run It Up]

Pats didn't bring in a RB outside of udfa DJ Foster who is very much a third down back. The already overstated Belichickian approach to RBs is even more so in this case, the long and short of it is he is their best back by a lot.

 

[Anarchy99]

Pats didn't bring in a RB outside of udfa DJ Foster who is very much a third down back. The already overstated Belichickian approach to RBs is even more so in this case, the long and short of it is he is their best back by a lot.

He may be there best back by a lot, but that doesn't mean that he will get the ball 20-25 times a game. Like most years, we will have to wait and see how the new batch of skill players fits and how the distribution will shake out. I suspect Bennett will be used a lot more than his ADP and current rankings indicate. Also unknown is how much a role Hogan will carve out (and Washington if he sticks around). I have been advocating having Brady do less (not more) and improving the ground attack (but that doesn't seem like that will happen). It still looks like a team that will use the pass to set up the run and not the other way around.

 

[Pwingles]

I love Dion's talent and have since Pitt. I thought he was the second coming of Marshall Faulk. The sad fact is he just can't stay healthy. I don't expect an ACL surgery to change things. He is still only 25, but damn is he snakebitten. 

why is this rumor still a thing?

Hes had a broken leg and an ACL tear, not what i would call injury prone (they were also like 4 years apart)

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Pats didn't bring in a RB outside of udfa DJ Foster who is very much a third down back. The already overstated Belichickian approach to RBs is even more so in this case, the long and short of it is he is their best back by a lot.

Donald Brown.

 

[Shutout]

He may be there best back by a lot, but that doesn't mean that he will get the ball 20-25 times a game. Like most years, we will have to wait and see how the new batch of skill players fits and how the distribution will shake out. I suspect Bennett will be used a lot more than his ADP and current rankings indicate. Also unknown is how much a role Hogan will carve out (and Washington if he sticks around). I have been advocating having Brady do less (not more) and improving the ground attack (but that doesn't seem like that will happen). It still looks like a team that will use the pass to set up the run and not the other way around.

I agree with RUn it up.  When you say "get the ball 20-25 times a game, do you mean rushing because, if so, I'd caution you not to think it of it that way.  He can get the ball 6-7 times a day (which I think was actually what happened last year). The value with Lewis is not in rushing, it's in that he can do either, meaning he's ALWAYS a threat. Aside from Brady who touches the ball every play, he has a higher chance to be involved in a play than anyone and that's good for ff business (assuming a ppr league here). No, he'll never be Shady McCoy and rush for 18 and catch 5 more (consistently), but he's an absolute threat for 18-28 each weeks and that's good stuff.

I don't think Bennett will be used as much as the first glance might suggest. this is a difficult offense to get in groove with and their 1st year TEs haven't really done it recently. I'll buy a case about Hogan but, honestly, he will just absorb what Amendola and Eddelman leave when they are injured (and they WILL be at some point). 

Not to be snarky but advocating for Brady to do less is about the least likely thing the Patriots would want to do or be smart to do. He is in a groove right now that suits the team's strengths AND weaknesses in the way they are playing the short/quick/timing passing game and, call it a hunch, but I think if he sits 4 games, he is going to come out like a man with his hair on fire when he gets back and the Patriots, IF THEY ARE ABLE, are going to flat out embarrass teams when they can because the league has slapped that "evil empire" moniker on them and I think they are at the point where they will best respond by embracing it and just rolling teams when they can't. Everyone wants to beat this deflate gate thing and taint the Patriots at every turn. they might deserve it. I don't know. But you can  tell how they paly and the attitude they carry that they don't mind sticking it to teams.

 

[Shutout]

Donald Brown.

Like the man said, they didn't bring in anyone...LOL

 

[Run It Up]

Donald Brown.

You're right :[

Forgot about him, pretty confident he takes James Whites roster slot and is a nonfactor unless Lewis goes down.

 

[Shutout]

why is this rumor still a thing?

Hes had a broken leg and an ACL tear, not what i would call injury prone (they were also like 4 years apart)

Good point.  People often fail to remember it all.  He's not Fred Taylor or some guy with a boo boo of the week. What DID happen, granted, is he's had two very SIGNIFICANT and long term leg injuries. Killers to a rb.  But then again, every meaningful RB I can think of has had pretty big injuries over the past 4 years. None have been perfectly healthy. 

Has Lewis been any more injured than L. Bell?  TO me that is an interesting comparison in the regard that Bell is talked about as a potential #1 overall draft ranking "if he hadn't been hurt like he has" but Lewis is somehow a "major risk and concern".  But when you put their points up in average games (PPR), they aren't that far apart on the spectrum.

 

[Shutout]

You're right :[

Forgot about him, pretty confident he takes James Whites roster slot and is a nonfactor unless Lewis goes down. hell freezes over. 

Fixed.

 

[Ilov80s]

why is this rumor still a thing?

Hes had a broken leg and an ACL tear, not what i would call injury prone (they were also like 4 years apart)

Good catch. For some reason I thought he had other health injuries which caused him to fail with some of the other teams he was on.

 

[Ilov80s]

Good point.  People often fail to remember it all.  He's not Fred Taylor or some guy with a boo boo of the week. What DID happen, granted, is he's had two very SIGNIFICANT and long term leg injuries. Killers to a rb.  But then again, every meaningful RB I can think of has had pretty big injuries over the past 4 years. None have been perfectly healthy. 

Has Lewis been any more injured than L. Bell?  TO me that is an interesting comparison in the regard that Bell is talked about as a potential #1 overall draft ranking "if he hadn't been hurt like he has" but Lewis is somehow a "major risk and concern".  But when you put their points up in average games (PPR), they aren't that far apart on the spectrum.

I don't want anything to do with Bell. This last injury isn't just a run of the mill ACL either. 

 

[Warrior]

Jeff T has AJ Green ranked BELOW Karlos Williams. Safe to say he's "down on" Green...though no explanation is given.

Also safe to say that Jeff T's opinion deserves a "lol"

 

[mcd]

Jeff T has AJ Green ranked BELOW Karlos Williams. Safe to say he's "down on" Green...though no explanation is given.

Also safe to say that Jeff T's opinion deserves a "lol"

That's got to be a mistake in the redraft rankings. He has AJ Green in his top 10 in the Dynasty rankings.

 

[Biabreakable]

Lewis was selected with the 149th pick in the fifth round of the 2011 NFL Draft by the Philadelphia Eagles. He was signed to a four-year contract worth $2.2 million on July 27, 2011.

Dion Lewis was active for 15 games with the Eagles as a rookie. McCoy had 270 some carries and they also had Ronnie Brown, so Lewis was not used much.

In 2012 he was listed as questionable for a hamstring injury week one. He was only active for 9 games. So presumably a healthy scratch in five of them. They did use Lewis a bit when McCoy missed some games in the middle of the season. The Eagles used Bryce Brown who was very effective in two games, then not so good in others.

Enter Chip Kelly

On April 11, 2013, Lewis was traded to the Cleveland Browns for linebacker Emmanuel Acho.[25] He missed the entire season due to a fractured fibula. He was cut by the Cleveland Browns on August 30, 2014.

The Browns traded Trent Richardson to the Colts. Based on preseaon use it looked like Norv Turner intended to use Dion Lewis as their main RB. He fractured his fibula.

Lewis signed with the Indianapolis Colts on September 9, 2014.[26] He was released on September 16.

I know the Vikings had Lewis in for a visit after Adrian Peterson was suspended. They did not end up picking him up and instead picked up some scrub TE. 

I speculate that Norv Turner wanted to add Dion Lewis to the roster, but the medical staff had reason to say no.

Dion Lewis is not picked up for the rest of 2014 season, I am sure other teams looked at him too. I think there was a medical reason. A fractured fibula should not take over a year to recover from.

On December 31, 2014, the New England Patriots signed Lewis to a future/reserve contract.[27] Lewis made the team's 53-man roster and saw his first game action on September 10, 2015, in the Patriots' 28–21 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers, after two years of not playing. Starting for the first time in his career in place of a suspended LeGarrette Blount, Lewis recorded 120 yards from scrimmage.[28] Despite facing competition from Blount, Lewis continued a successful start to the season with 138 and 67 total yards respectively in weeks one and two. Week two also saw Lewis score his first touchdown as a Patriot and record six receptions.[29]

On October 8, 2015, after just three games, Lewis signed a two-year contract extension with the Patriots, running through the 2017 season.[30] The contract includes a $600,000 signing bonus and $1.8 million in incentives in 2016 and 2017. In his first game after signing the contract, a 30-6 win over the Dallas Cowboys, Lewis rushed 6 times for 34 yards and caught 8 passes for 59 yards and a touchdown.[31] On October 29, in a 36-7 win over the Miami Dolphins, Lewis rushed five times for 19 yards and caught six passes for 93 yards and a touchdown.[32] On November 8 Lewis suffered a torn ACL against the Washington Redskins, causing him to miss the remainder of the 2015 season. He was placed on injured reserve November 9

Sources

Wiki

KFFL

I don't know what injuries he had in college. It looks like he only missed one game.

I don't know why a fractured fibula kept him from playing for two seasons.

The fall was not without hope for Lewis, who runs with mesmerizing agility and possesses deceptive strength between the tackles. A midseason free agent for the first time in his life, the 5-foot-7, 195-pound tailback had tryouts with the Vikings in September, the Giants in October and the Patriots on November 12. The Giants kept him overnight at the tryout, usually an indication of serious interest. Later, they ended up signing Chris Ogbonnaya, a more versatile special teams player. LINK

Lewis is focused on readying himself for organized team activities in the spring. He’s out of a protective boot, doing upper-body conditioning and rehabbing a lower leg, which contains a plate and screws implanted during his Aug. 19 surgery. Because the break was low in his leg it also affected his ankle.LINK

 

[Ilov80s]

Now that I have looked closer, here are my thoughts for standard leagues where I find a players ADP much too high. 

Big Ben: I am not sure there is a more overrated and over drafted player in fantasy this year.He is being taken around pick 59 which is before Decker, Jordan Matthews, John Brown, Geo Bernard, etc. He is even being taken before Brady and Brees. Why someone would take Ben before Brees just does not compute with me. In a 6 pt per passing TD league, Ben's best ppg average for a season was 22.8. Brees' worst was 23.1. In a 4 pt per TD league, Ben's career best 18.8 ppg average is better than only 1 of Drew's last 8 seasons. Ben has topped 30 TDs twice is his career. Brees has done it 8 straight years. Ben has missed 20 games in his career. Brees has missed 3 games during that time span. Drew is old and I could see if people thought he was trending down, but he isn't. Over his 10 years in New Orleans, 2015 was the 4th highest ppg Brees has ever posted.Plus there is the obvious reason that it is crazy to take a QB early. Kirk Cousins, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tyrod Taylor, Carson Palmer, Andy Dalton, Blake Bortles, Matt Stafford. Those are all QBs that scored more (in a 6 pt per passing TD) ppg than Ben did in 2015.

Hopkins: I love the player and think he is going to have a very good year so this might be nitpicking. I just don't think he warrants being a top 8 pick. I think he should be going in the same area as Dez, AJ, Jordy. AR15. Hopkins had what was most likely his career year in 2015 and so much of it was based on what I think is unrepeatable volume. No WR took more snaps last year than Hopkins. Only 7 offensive players in the NFL took more snaps than Hopkins last year (6 OL and Rivers).  He had 85 more snaps than the second highest WR Brandon Marshall. The data I am looking at only goes back 3 years, but no WR was even close to seeing the number of snaps Hopkins did last year.  The first 8 games Nuk had 112 targets 66 receptions,  870 yards and 6 TDs. The last 8 games he had 80 targets, 45 receptions, 651 yards and 5 TDs. During that first 8 game stretch Houston was 3-5 giving up 27 points a game and the final 8 games they went 6-2 giving up 14 points a game. I think the Texans are closer to the second half in terms of defense and style of play so I feel a lot more comfortable projecting Hopkins to 160 targets, 90 receptions, 1300 yards and 10 TDs. That is still a great year but more of a WR10-12 than the WR 6 he was last year. 

Amari Cooper: He is a talented player so I understand why people are excited, but I see Cooper going late 2nd/early 3rd before McCoy, Cooks, DT, TY, Keenan when I really think he should be back near the Maclin, Decker, Landry range in 4th-5th. Cooper just hasn't done anything special enough in the league to draft over players with the more proven track records.His price tag is the best case scenario for a guy that was WR23 in total points and WR31 in ppg last year. He wasn't even the best fantasy WR on his team. He had 0 targets inside the 10 so I wonder what his TD potential is. For Cooper to live up to his WR11 pricetag, you are going to need to a 33% improvement in fantasy production.The good news it that there is a lot he can improve on to get better numbers. He had more drops than Mike Evans in 2015. A lot of the advanced stats I have seen weren't too kind to Cooper (Catch rate &, DVOA, DYAR). Now the play of the QB certainly could have been a cause for some of those poor numbers, but that same QB will be throwing him the ball in 2015. I just don't see the argument for Cooper going so high other than he's really talented and he is sure to improve. As we know from years of fantasy, talented players don't always make for fantasy stars and players don't always improve. 

Kelvin Benjamin:  He had a nice rookie season statistically. So did Michael Clayton (80 1193 and 7) and Mike Williams (65 954 and 11). Having a good rookie year for fantasy does not make you a good player in the long run. It doesn't make you bad either. There were some major concerns with KB. He led the NFL in drops and was 3rd in drop percentage. He had one of the worst catch rates in the NFL. He averaged 2.4 yards after the catch which was about worst in the NFL. His efficiency in the RZ was also  poor. His best efficiency comps that year were Vincent Jackson and Andre Johnson. I don't think many would argue that the 2014 version of those players was exciting. Benjamin is currently going roughly between pick 25 and 34. That means his draft peers are McCoy, Forte, Ingram, Marshall, Cooks, DT, TY, and Cam. I am going to ignore the fact he is coming off an ACL as I don't think that injury as early as it happened is very meaningful these days. Instead, we have a player that in 1 season was a mid to low end WR2 in terms of ppg production. In 2014 he was WR19 in ppg at 9.6. If you think of the WR19-24 as being that back half WR2 category, then he was there with Torrey Smith, Roddy White, Julian Edelman, Mike Wallace and Brandon LaFell. The difference between KB (WR19) and WR24 Lafell was less than the difference from KB to WR16.  He was a very clear second class WR2. That is a strong rookie year. A better rookie year than Amari Cooper (who is even more over drafted), but the only thing really great about it was the draft capital it took to get KB. Somehow, after tearing his ACL, he has jumped from finishing as WR19 to an ADP of WR14. People assume since Cam doubled his TDs from 2014 to 2015 that it means KB is going to score an insane amount of TDs. Maybe, but we have never seen it happen and we need to figure in normal regression for Cam. 

Demarco Murray: He ran for 3.6 ypc last year. That is 1.4 less than Mathews.The Titans running backs averaged 3.5 ypc last year. The Titans RBs had 7 rushing TDs last year. The Titans drafted a RB in the 2nd round. This RB is an athletic freak with insane college production and should cut into the limited TD potential of the Titans backfield. It is a young QB with likely the 2nd worst collection of pass catchers in the NFL. The defense isn't likely to be good. I don't know of anyone that has much faith in the coaching staff. I can't really come up with what the positive points on Murray are other than he was great when he played in Dallas and got the ball 28 times a game. 4th round picks are too valuable for me to spend on a player with so many negatives. I know at that point we are starting to get to the area where we are just drafting RBs with opportunity, but based on the last few years in Tennessee, I really question if being the starting RB there is actually an opportunity at all yet alone an opportunity worth betting on in the 4th. 

 

[abbottjamesr]

Now that I have looked closer, here are my thoughts for standard leagues where I find a players ADP much too high. 

Big Ben: I am not sure there is a more overrated and over drafted player in fantasy this year.He is being taken around pick 59 which is before Decker, Jordan Matthews, John Brown, Geo Bernard, etc. He is even being taken before Brady and Brees. Why someone would take Ben before Brees just does not compute with me. In a 6 pt per passing TD league, Ben's best ppg average for a season was 22.8. Brees' worst was 23.1 In a 4 pt per TD league, Ben's career best 18.8 ppg average is better than only 1 of Drew's last 8 seasons. Ben has topped 30 TDs twice is his career. Brees has done it 8 straight years. Ben has missed 20 games in his career. Brees has missed 3 games during that time span. Drew is old and I could see if people thought he was trending down, but he isn't. Over his 10 years in New Orleans, 2015 was the 7th highest ppg Brees has ever posted.Plus there is the obvious reason that it is crazy to take a QB early. Kirk Cousins, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tyrod Taylor, Carson Palmer, Andy Dalton, Blake Bortles, Matt Stafford. Those are all QBs that scored more (in a 6 pt per passing TD) ppg than Ben did in 2015.

Hopkins: I love the player and think he is going to have a very good year so this might be nitpicking. I just don't think he warrants being a top 8 pick. I think he should be going in the same area as Dez, AJ, Jordy. AR15. Hopkins had what was most likely his career year in 2015 and so much of it was based on what I think is unrepeatable volume. No WR took more snaps last year than Hopkins. Only 7 offensive players in the NFL took more snaps than Hopkins last year (6 OL and Rivers).  He had 85 more snaps than the second highest WR Brandon Marshall. The data I am looking at only goes back 3 years, but no WR was even close to seeing the number of snaps Hopkins did last year.  The first 8 games Nuk had 112 targets 66 receptions,  870 yards and 6 TDs. The last 8 games he had 80 targets, 45 receptions, 651 yards and 5 TDs. During that first 8 game stretch Houston was 3-5 giving up 27 points a game and the final 8 games they went 6-2 giving up 14 points a game. I think the Texans are closer to the second half in terms of defense and style of play so I feel a lot more comfortable projecting Hopkins to 160 targets, 90 receptions, 1300 yards and 10 TDs. That is still a great year but more of a WR10-12 than the WR 6 he was last year. 

Amari Cooper: He is a talented player so I understand why people are excited, but I see Cooper going late 2nd/early 3rd before McCoy, Cooks, DT, TY, Keenan when I really think he should be back near the Maclin, Decker, Landry range in 4th-5th. Cooper just hasn't done anything special enough in the league to draft over players with the more proven track records.His price tag is the best case scenario for a guy that was WR23 in total points and WR31 in ppg last year. He wasn't even the best fantasy WR on his team. He had 0 targets inside the 10 so I wonder what his TD potential is. For Cooper to live up to his WR11 pricetag, you are going to need to a 33% improvement in fantasy production.The good news it that there is a lot he can improve on to get better numbers. He had more drops than Mike Evans in 2015. A lot of the advanced stats I have seen weren't too kind to Cooper (Catch rate &, DVOA, DYAR). Now the play of the QB certainly could have been a cause for some of those poor numbers, but that same QB will be throwing him the ball in 2015. I just don't see the argument for Cooper going so high other than he's really talented and he is sure to improve. As we know from years of fantasy, talented players don't always make for fantasy stars and players don't always improve. 

Kelvin Benjamin:  He had a nice rookie season statistically. So did Michael Clayton (80 1193 and 7) and Mike Williams (65 954 and 11). Having a good rookie year for fantasy does not make you a good player in the long run. It doesn't make you bad either. There were some major concerns with KB. He led the NFL in drops and was 3rd in drop percentage. He had one of the worst catch rates in the NFL. He averaged 2.4 yards after the catch which was about worst in the NFL. His efficiency in the RZ was also  poor. His best efficiency comps that year were Vincent Jackson and Andre Johnson. I don't think many would argue that the 2014 version of those players was exciting. Benjamin is currently going roughly between pick 25 and 34. That means his draft peers are McCoy, Forte, Ingram, Marshall, Cooks, DT, TY, and Cam. I am going to ignore the fact he is coming off an ACL as I don't think that injury as early as it happened is very meaningful these days. Instead, we have a player that in 1 season was a mid to low end WR2 in terms of ppg production. In 2014 he was WR19 in ppg at 9.6. If you think of the WR19-24 as being that back half WR2 category, then he was there with Torrey Smith, Roddy White, Julian Edelman, Mike Wallace and Brandon LaFell. The difference between KB (WR19) and WR24 Lafell was less than the difference from KB to WR16.  He was a very clear second class WR2. That is a strong rookie year. A better rookie year than Amari Cooper (who is even more over drafted), but the only thing really great about it was the draft capital it took to get KB. Somehow, after tearing his ACL, he has jumped from finishing as WR19 to an ADP of WR14. People assume since Cam doubled his TDs from 2014 to 2015 that it means KB is going to score an insane amount of TDs. Maybe, but we have never seen it happen and we need to figure in normal regression for Cam. 

Demarco Murray: He ran for 3.6 ypc last year. That is 1.4 less than Mathews.The Titans running backs averaged 3.5 ypc last year. The Titans had 7 rushing TDs last year. The Titans drafted a RB in the 2nd round. This RB is an athletic freak with insane college production and should cut into the limited TD potential of the Titans backfield. It is a young QB with likely the 2nd worst collection of pass catchers in the NFL. The defense isn't likely to be good. I don't know of anyone that has much faith in the coaching staff. I can't really come up with what the positive points on Murray are other than he was great when he played in Dallas and got the ball 28 times a game. 4th round picks are too valuable for me to spend on a player with so many negatives. I know at that point we are starting to get to the area where we are just drafting RBs with opportunity, but based on the last few years in Tennessee, I really question if being the starting RB there is actually an opportunity at all yet alone in the 4th. 

I agree with every word of this except the Cooper section. 

In the last 5 years 7 Rookie WRs have had 950 yards or more in their first season, including Cooper.  Of those 5 played the next season (Benjamin was out) all but K. Allen posted improved yards the next year.  This list is Jones, Green, OBJ, Evans.  

In the last 5 years 13 Rookie WR's had 800 yards or more in their first season, including cooper.  Of those 11 played the next season (Jones, Green, T. Smith, TY Hilton, J. Gordon, Allen, Hopkins, OBJ, Evans, J. Matthews, Watkins).  Of those 11, 9 posted at least 973 yards the next season, (allen 783, Smith 855).  

I agree that Cooper probably wont be the next AJ, Julio, or OBJ, but there is a lot of history to suggest an improvement is likely.  I have him ranked in the WR13 range but I think he has some pretty high upside to go with a good solid floor.  I think he ADP is about right currently.  I can't take him above  K. Allen or McCoy though I like him more than Cooks, Hilton, DT.

 

[fightingillini]

I am down on Dez Bryant and his WR6 price tag.  He can't stay healthy, Romo can't stay healthy, DAL is going to run the ball an insane amount with Elliott, Morris and McFadden, and his value is too much tied to TD production.  I will pass.

I am also down on Golden Tate and his WR23 price tag.  I truly feel Tate benefitted from Calvin Johnson's presence.  Now he's going to be drawing defenses #1 corner, so I think his upside is pretty limited.    I would much rather take a WR with more updside like Doug Baldwin or Jeremy Maclin or Michael Floyd at that price point, or wait a few rounds and take Marvin Jones.

 

[Ilov80s]

I agree with every word of this except the Cooper section. 

In the last 5 years 7 Rookie WRs have had 950 yards or more in their first season, including Cooper.  Of those 5 played the next season (Benjamin was out) all but K. Allen posted improved yards the next year.  This list is Jones, Green, OBJ, Evans.  

In the last 5 years 13 Rookie WR's had 800 yards or more in their first season, including cooper.  Of those 11 played the next season (Jones, Green, T. Smith, TY Hilton, J. Gordon, Allen, Hopkins, OBJ, Evans, J. Matthews, Watkins).  Of those 11, 9 posted at least 973 yards the next season, (allen 783, Smith 855).  

I agree that Cooper probably wont be the next AJ, Julio, or OBJ, but there is a lot of history to suggest an improvement is likely.  I have him ranked in the WR13 range but I think he has some pretty high upside to go with a good solid floor.  I think he ADP is about right currently.  I can't take him above  K. Allen or McCoy though I like him more than Cooks, Hilton, DT.

Improved their yardage by how much? 973 seems like a weird threshold. If Cooper has 973 yards next year he will either have been injured or been a massive bust. Why take him over Cooks with the hope that he ends up improving and turning into the player Cooks already was last year?

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Compared to the rest of the FF community I am not as high on LeVeon Bell as most rankings have him.  

I have him in the top-10 but not in the top-5 so I'm not 'down' on him, just not as high on him as most rankings.

Recent reports have stated there could be a split in carries with DeAngelo Williams and that makes sense considering how well Williams performed last year behind that line and the injuries and off-field issues that have impacted LeVeon the past year.  

I think we will see 'some' correction with rankings leading up to the season and that LeVeon will drop slightly from his current top-5 status.

 

[FF Ninja]

I am down on Dez Bryant and his WR6 price tag.  He can't stay healthy, Romo can't stay healthy, DAL is going to run the ball an insane amount with Elliott, Morris and McFadden, and his value is too much tied to TD production.  I will pass.

I am also down on Golden Tate and his WR23 price tag.  I truly feel Tate benefitted from Calvin Johnson's presence.  Now he's going to be drawing defenses #1 corner, so I think his upside is pretty limited.    I would much rather take a WR with more updside like Doug Baldwin or Jeremy Maclin or Michael Floyd at that price point, or wait a few rounds and take Marvin Jones.

FWIW, Tate actually flourished in the games without Calvin in 2014 (and the games in which Calvin was playing injured). I like a lot of guys in his ADP range and Marvin Jones is a lot cheaper, so I may not land Tate in any leagues, but I think he's got a real chance to outpeform his ADP.

 

[abbottjamesr]

Improved their yardage by how much? 973 seems like a weird threshold. If Cooper has 973 yards next year he will either have been injured or been a massive bust. Why take him over Cooks with the hope that he ends up improving and turning into the player Cooks already was last year?

I wanted to say that all 800 yards guys improved to 1000 yards or better but Mathews was a few yards shy so I lowered it to 973 to include him.

2011->2012
Jones 54/959/8 -> 79/1198/10
Green 65/1057/7 -> 97/1350/11
T. Smith 50/841/7  -> 49/855/8

2012->2013
Hilton  50/861/7  -> 82/1083/5
Gordon  50/805/5  -> 87/1646/9

2013->2014
Allen  71/1046/8  -> 77/873/4
Hopkins  85/802  -> 76/1210/6

2014->2015
OBJ  91/1305/12  -> 96/1450/13
Evans  68/1051/12  -> 74/1206/3
Benjamin  73/1008/9  -> Injured
Matthews  67/872/8  -> 85/997/8
Watkins   65/982/6  -> 60/1047/9

Average Improvement 204 yards year over year.

Honorable mentions on WR Rookie to 2nd year improvement
A. Robinson 48/548/2 -> 80/1400/14
Landry  84/758/5  -> 111/1159/4
Hurns   51/677/6  -> 64/1031/10
J. Brown  48/696/5  -> 65/1003/7
A. Jeffery  24/367/3  -> 89/1421/7
K. Wright  64/626/4  -> 94/1079/2
M. Floyd  45/562/2  -> 65/1041/5
R. Cobb  25/375/1  -> 80/954/8

 

[Ilov80s]

I wanted to say that all 800 yards guys improved to 1000 yards or better but Mathews was a few yards shy so I lowered it to 973 to include him.

2011->2012
Jones 54/959/8 -> 79/1198/10
Green 65/1057/7 -> 97/1350/11
T. Smith 50/841/7  -> 49/855/8

2012->2013
Hilton  50/861/7  -> 82/1083/5
Gordon  50/805/5  -> 87/1646/9

2013->2014
Allen  71/1046/8  -> 77/873/4
Hopkins  85/802  -> 76/1210/6

2014->2015
OBJ  91/1305/12  -> 96/1450/13
Evans  68/1051/12  -> 74/1206/3
Benjamin  73/1008/9  -> Injured
Matthews  67/872/8  -> 85/997/8
Watkins   65/982/6  -> 60/1047/9

Average Improvement 204 yards year over year.

Honorable mentions on WR Rookie to 2nd year improvement
A. Robinson 48/548/2 -> 80/1400/14
Landry  84/758/5  -> 111/1159/4
Hurns   51/677/6  -> 64/1031/10
J. Brown  48/696/5  -> 65/1003/7
A. Jeffery  24/367/3  -> 89/1421/7
K. Wright  64/626/4  -> 94/1079/2
M. Floyd  45/562/2  -> 65/1041/5
R. Cobb  25/375/1  -> 80/954/8

Very good  post. I expanded the search to 900 yards and the last 10 years. The guys that following their rookie year up with future years of fantasy success: Beckham,  Evans, Julio, AJ, Keenan, Colston, Bowe, Sammy, Desean, Jordan Matthews, TY, Torrey Smith, Santonio, Hopkins and Gordon. The bombs were Mike Williams, Justin Blackmon, and Eddie Royal. Kelvin and Cooper are TBD. So based on this small sample size, we can expect that Cooper likely has some very good years of fantasy ahead of him. So maybe we can expect 1300 and 8 which really would make sense for his current ADP.  I still think I would rather bet on the guys that have been there before going with Cooper based off of a small sample size of trends. It does make me question if he belongs on my list. Do you feel the same about Kelvin?

 

[abbottjamesr]

Very good  post. I expanded the search to 900 yards and the last 10 years. The guys that following their rookie year up with future years of fantasy success: Beckham,  Evans, Julio, AJ, Keenan, Colston, Bowe, Sammy, Desean, Jordan Matthews, TY, Torrey Smith, Santonio, Hopkins and Gordon. The bombs were Mike Williams, Justin Blackmon, and Eddie Royal. Kelvin and Cooper are TBD. So based on this small sample size, we can expect that Cooper likely has some very good years of fantasy ahead of him. So maybe we can expect 1300 and 8 which really would make sense for his current ADP.  I still think I would rather bet on the guys that have been there before going with Cooper based off of a small sample size of trends. It does make me question if he belongs on my list. Do you feel the same about Kelvin?

You hit my projection for Cooper almost exactly (86/1279/8).  I think his adp is about right, but like you probably wont pick him there unless he falls a bit or the guys I like more are gone.  

I'm not real high on Benjamin this year.  I think the Carolina offense as a whole regresses a bit and the year off may have stunted some of the growth he should have as a second year player.  He is my WR24 with 75/1015/8.  And to be honest I feel like there are 5 guys with lower ADP that will give me similar production.  I guess he is some one I am down on this year seeing his adp is WR18.  I would rather wait for J. Brown, Hurns, Matthews, Jones, or Decker and take a solid RB2 in the late third like Forte, Anderson or Hyde.

 

[thriftyrocker]

I agree with every word of this except the Cooper section. 

In the last 5 years 7 Rookie WRs have had 950 yards or more in their first season, including Cooper.  Of those 5 played the next season (Benjamin was out) all but K. Allen posted improved yards the next year.  This list is Jones, Green, OBJ, Evans. 

In the last 5 years 13 Rookie WR's had 800 yards or more in their first season, including cooper.  Of those 11 played the next season (Jones, Green, T. Smith, TY Hilton, J. Gordon, Allen, Hopkins, OBJ, Evans, J. Matthews, Watkins).  Of those 11, 9 posted at least 973 yards the next season, (allen 783, Smith 855).  

I agree that Cooper probably wont be the next AJ, Julio, or OBJ, but there is a lot of history to suggest an improvement is likely.  I have him ranked in the WR13 range but I think he has some pretty high upside to go with a good solid floor.  I think he ADP is about right currently.  I can't take him above  K. Allen or McCoy though I like him more than Cooks, Hilton, DT.

That's a great argument that he won't regress this year, but he finished last year as WR28 in PPG and is being drafted as WR12 or 13. He has to score about 4 ppg more to reach low WR1. 4 ppg isn't small, it's a 30% increase. It can definitely happen and at times last year it looked like he was going to break out. But there's some negatives too like his DVOA.  It can be sketchy to bet on a breakout when established WR1s are right there to take over him. In redraft you can get very similar breakout candidate WR 4 rounds later (Matthews, Moncrief, Parker). 

 

[abbottjamesr]

That's a great argument that he won't regress this year, but he finished last year as WR28 in PPG and is being drafted as WR12 or 13. He has to score about 4 ppg more to reach low WR1. 4 ppg isn't small, it's a 30% increase. It can definitely happen and at times last year it looked like he was going to break out. But there's some negatives too like his DVOA.  It can be sketchy to bet on a breakout when established WR1s are right there to take over him. In redraft you can get very similar breakout candidate WR 4 rounds later (Matthews, Moncrief, Parker). 

In non ppr he had 8.9 PPG last season.  Over the last three years the average WR13 was 11.3 PPG.   My projection this year is basically 1 more reception per game for 86/1279/8 or 11.0 PPG.  To me he priced almost exactly right at ADP WR13. 

That said, I will probably not own him this year as I agree that there are guys much later who can do similar production.  I also think the RB's going around the same time offer better return.  It is exciting to think about a 4th overall draft pick WR going in to his second season after a pretty successful rookie year though.  Dreams of Gordon, Julio, and Green dance in my head and might make me do rash things during auctions.

 

[Ilov80s]

That's a great argument that he won't regress this year, but he finished last year as WR28 in PPG and is being drafted as WR12 or 13. He has to score about 4 ppg more to reach low WR1. 4 ppg isn't small, it's a 30% increase. It can definitely happen and at times last year it looked like he was going to break out. But there's some negatives too like his DVOA.  It can be sketchy to bet on a breakout when established WR1s are right there to take over him. In redraft you can get very similar breakout candidate WR 4 rounds later (Matthews, Moncrief, Parker). 

Good point about cost vs production last year. Moncrief averaged 9.3 in the 7 games Luck played. Parker averaged 8.4 ppg in the 8 games he played. I know it's not really a great way to do things, but just for fun, let's see what those guys projected to over a full season. Moncrief (with Luck):  802 yards and 11 TDs  Parker: 988 and 6. These guys seem like similarly young talents in position to perform on par with Cooper but available significantly later. 

 

[fightingillini]

FWIW, Tate actually flourished in the games without Calvin in 2014 (and the games in which Calvin was playing injured). I like a lot of guys in his ADP range and Marvin Jones is a lot cheaper, so I may not land Tate in any leagues, but I think he's got a real chance to outpeform his ADP.

I don't think Tate will necessarily be big bust at WR23 (he will catch enough passes), just like others better at that price point.  Baldwin, Maclin, Floyd (and Jones at a cheaper ADP) all have a chance to be top 15 guys.  I can't see Tate being a top 15 guy since they way the new regime used him.....it's more shorter passing (averaged less than 10 YPC, even though he averaged about 14 YPC in 2013 and 2014) .  I am not willing to spend a 3rd or 4th round pick on a guy that averages less than 10 YPC.  And he's not a big TD guy....only averages 5 in an offense than throws the ball a lot.

If he would be used more down the field like in 2013-2014, than I would like him a lot more at his price point.

 

[Pigskin Fanatic]

3. Allen Robinson - I was quite high on him last year, but he's swung too far. If Hurns is going to regress, so will Robinson. But people seem to think they play on different teams as his ADP hasn't taken a hit at all. He's being drafted at his ceiling.

Like your list and agree that Robinson has swung way high in just one year with a rookie QB to boot. However, any implied regression at the team level doesn't mean both receivers have to go down. Jimmy Smith and K.McCardell as a comparison, Smith eventually pulled away from KM. Most good offenses will keep one talented receiver fed imo and i'll be betting on Robinson to match or top last year production.

 

[zamboni]

I don't think Tate will necessarily be big bust at WR23 (he will catch enough passes), just like others better at that price point.  Baldwin, Maclin, Floyd (and Jones at a cheaper ADP) all have a chance to be top 15 guys.  I can't see Tate being a top 15 guy since they way the new regime used him.....it's more shorter passing (averaged less than 10 YPC, even though he averaged about 14 YPC in 2013 and 2014) .  I am not willing to spend a 3rd or 4th round pick on a guy that averages less than 10 YPC.  And he's not a big TD guy....only averages 5 in an offense than throws the ball a lot.

If he would be used more down the field like in 2013-2014, than I would like him a lot more at his price point.

IMOt Tate will indeed be used a lot more down the field this year. With Calvin doing his damage down the field, Tate's routes were mainly underneath. As he showed in 2014, Tate is actually quite good after the catch - he was just asked to provide more of a Edelman/Welker type of role last year.

If Ebron can continue to show improvement, that might open things up more for on deeper routes.

 

[kface]

This may sound weird but i am down on 70% of the draft really.  I think this year, more than most years, there are the tier 1 players and everyone else.  

I play in a 10 team modified dynasty league.  What we do is that when we draft a player in say round 12, we can then choose to keep him in round 10 the next year (2 rounds higher than previously drafted).  The next year round 8 and so on.  We set this up so people can't corner stars for their entire careers.  So by round 5ish we already have guys like jonathan steweart, dion lewis and danny woodhead being drafted.  I'm just a big believer that there will be so many people on the waiver wire that will give you similar or better stats then these guys for spurts during the year.  You can't win anymore with your 2 studs from the first 2 rounds and then a bunch of guys that will give you 60yds and maybe a td.  You need to hit the waiver wire and get it right.  Those are the guys that win.  

The winner last year pick up barnidge, deangelo williams and Travis Benjamin off the wire last year.  It was the only reason he finished first.  

 

[FF Ninja]

I don't think Tate will necessarily be big bust at WR23 (he will catch enough passes), just like others better at that price point.  Baldwin, Maclin, Floyd (and Jones at a cheaper ADP) all have a chance to be top 15 guys.  I can't see Tate being a top 15 guy since they way the new regime used him.....it's more shorter passing (averaged less than 10 YPC, even though he averaged about 14 YPC in 2013 and 2014) .  I am not willing to spend a 3rd or 4th round pick on a guy that averages less than 10 YPC.  And he's not a big TD guy....only averages 5 in an offense than throws the ball a lot.

If he would be used more down the field like in 2013-2014, than I would like him a lot more at his price point.

I get your concern. Like I said, I'm not sure I'll end up with Tate in any leagues, but I do feel that last year's 10 ypc was a bit of an aberration. As zamboni said, he's good after the catch. I recall seeing something on PFF about him having the highest elusive rating of all WRs back a few years ago. He's elusive and he's got speed, so he could really break one at any time. If he gets enough volume, he could put up surprising TD numbers to go with robust reception and yardage numbers.

Like your list and agree that Robinson has swung way high in just one year with a rookie QB to boot. However, any implied regression at the team level doesn't mean both receivers have to go down. Jimmy Smith and K.McCardell as a comparison, Smith eventually pulled away from KM. Most good offenses will keep one talented receiver fed imo and i'll be betting on Robinson to match or top last year production.

The concept of offenses keeping one WR fed seems pretty unscientific to me. I don't think there's any benefit to such an offensive philosophy, so if they've got two good WRs I expect they'll continue to spread the ball between them. Add to this the fact that they just paid Hurns damn good money and I really doubt they let him slip into WR oblivion. In the games they played together, Robinson got 9 targets per game and Hurns got 7 per game. I expect a similar ratio this year, but not sure how many targets they'll be splitting. Keep in mind Hurns was playing injured last year, so he's actually more likely to bridge the gap than concede more targets.

Also, I think 2015 was Bortles 2nd year.

 

[Dan Hindery]

I get your concern. Like I said, I'm not sure I'll end up with Tate in any leagues, but I do feel that last year's 10 ypc was a bit of an aberration. As zamboni said, he's good after the catch. I recall seeing something on PFF about him having the highest elusive rating of all WRs back a few years ago. He's elusive and he's got speed, so he could really break one at any time. If he gets enough volume, he could put up surprising TD numbers to go with robust reception and yardage numbers.




2

I think much of the disagreement on Tate is whether you think that YPC was an aberration or not. Because it's pretty clear that he's going to catch at least 90 passes and 100 isn't a stretch at all.

Personally, I am a bit down on Tate compared to the consensus because I don't think the YPC was a flue. His adot (average depth of target) was 5.8 last season. That was 4th lowest amongst all receivers. So even if he does do well after the catch, he is still getting the ball really short.

It's also worth noting that in the second half of the season after Cooter took over, Tate's YPC was actually below 9.0. A lot of dink and dunk to him. 

That's why I think a projection of 95-950-7 or so that seems about right. Very solid and he has a really nice floor in PPR, but there are guys with much higher upside being drafted in the same range IMO.

 

[zamboni]

I think much of the disagreement on Tate is whether you think that YPC was an aberration or not. Because it's pretty clear that he's going to catch at least 90 passes and 100 isn't a stretch at all.

Personally, I am a bit down on Tate compared to the consensus because I don't think the YPC was a flue. His adot (average depth of target) was 5.8 last season. That was 4th lowest amongst all receivers. So even if he does do well after the catch, he is still getting the ball really short.

It's also worth noting that in the second half of the season after Cooter took over, Tate's YPC was actually below 9.0. A lot of dink and dunk to him. 

That's why I think a projection of 95-950-7 or so that seems about right. Very solid and he has a really nice floor in PPR, but there are guys with much higher upside being drafted in the same range IMO.

As noted above, the target range was largely a factor of Calvin being the guy down the field. Unless Marvin Jones is going to assume that role, then perhaps Tate will still be the guy who roams underneath. But I think we can all agree that Calvin was unique game changer.

 

[Dan Hindery]

As noted above, the target range was largely a factor of Calvin being the guy down the field. Unless Marvin Jones is going to assume that role, then perhaps Tate will still be the guy who roams underneath. But I think we can all agree that Calvin was unique game changer.




 

It's pretty well established that Jones is stepping into Calvin's old position at X receiver. From the Detroit papers just yesterday (where they ranked Marvin Jones as the 5th best player on the team, ahead of Golden Tate):

http://www.freep.com/story/sports/nfl/lions/2016/07/20/marvin-jones-detroit-lions/87360554/

 Jones and Golden Tate will share the billing as the Lions’ No. 1 receiver this year, though neither is a No. 1 in the true sense of the word. Jones ranks a tick higher on this list because he’ll play mostly out of the X position, like Calvin Johnson did. He’s not Johnson, of course, and that shouldn’t be confused. But he’s got enough speed to be a viable deep threat and he did catch 10 touchdown passes in 2013. Based on opportunity alone, Jones should set career-highs for catches and yards this fall as the Lions divvy up the production in their offense. He won’t command regular double-teams or outjump three defenders for balls, but he’s a steady player who will be a big part of the offense.

2016 projection: The Lions spread the ball around so much that Jones might not put up huge numbers, but it’s fair to expect him to top 80 catches and 1,000 yards for the first time in his career.

(I'm just finishing up an in-depth Marvin Jones spotlight article and I'm in agreement with the Detroit Free Press, this is a co-#1 situation but Jones is going to make more big plays downfield and score more touchdowns.)

 

[zamboni]

It's pretty well established that Jones is stepping into Calvin's old position at X receiver. From the Detroit papers just yesterday (where they ranked Marvin Jones as the 5th best player on the team, ahead of Golden Tate):

http://www.freep.com/story/sports/nfl/lions/2016/07/20/marvin-jones-detroit-lions/87360554/

 Jones and Golden Tate will share the billing as the Lions’ No. 1 receiver this year, though neither is a No. 1 in the true sense of the word. Jones ranks a tick higher on this list because he’ll play mostly out of the X position, like Calvin Johnson did. He’s not Johnson, of course, and that shouldn’t be confused. But he’s got enough speed to be a viable deep threat and he did catch 10 touchdown passes in 2013. Based on opportunity alone, Jones should set career-highs for catches and yards this fall as the Lions divvy up the production in their offense. He won’t command regular double-teams or outjump three defenders for balls, but he’s a steady player who will be a big part of the offense.

2016 projection: The Lions spread the ball around so much that Jones might not put up huge numbers, but it’s fair to expect him to top 80 catches and 1,000 yards for the first time in his career.

(I'm just finishing up an in-depth Marvin Jones spotlight article and I'm in agreement with the Detroit Free Press, this is a co-#1 situation but Jones is going to make more big plays downfield and score more touchdowns.)

Certainly possible, but hard to know until they put on the pads and it's just one man's opinion in the article. Tate was pretty dynamic a few years ago in the handful of games when Calvin was hurt - I wouldn't be surprised to see him moved around the field quite a bit. Time will tell, obviously.

 

[FF Ninja]

I think much of the disagreement on Tate is whether you think that YPC was an aberration or not. Because it's pretty clear that he's going to catch at least 90 passes and 100 isn't a stretch at all.

Personally, I am a bit down on Tate compared to the consensus because I don't think the YPC was a flue. His adot (average depth of target) was 5.8 last season. That was 4th lowest amongst all receivers. So even if he does do well after the catch, he is still getting the ball really short.

It's also worth noting that in the second half of the season after Cooter took over, Tate's YPC was actually below 9.0. A lot of dink and dunk to him. 

That's why I think a projection of 95-950-7 or so that seems about right. Very solid and he has a really nice floor in PPR, but there are guys with much higher upside being drafted in the same range IMO.

Where did you get the adot stat? That's pretty handy. And yeah, I did notice about his ypc after Cooter took over. I just don't know if that's how Cooter will call plays after he has an entire offseason to put together his plans and no longer has Calvin in the mix. As I mentioned, Tate has plenty of speed and catches just about everything thrown his way so he could be a valuable deep threat if they choose to use him that way. If his ADP reflected a <10 ypr discount, I'd be all over him, but I'd rather get a slice of the Detroit passing offense with a much later/cheaper pick of Marvin Jones. If I was a betting man, I'd bet on Tate to have the better overall stats in all formats, but not as significant as their gap in ADP (WR23 vs. WR38... I recently saw Tate go for $24 while I landed Jones for $9).

 

[TripItUp]

No question that Tate's ADOT increases with Megatron gone.

Quit looking at last year's numbers.

 

[Biabreakable]

Dion Lewis was active for 15 games with the Eagles as a rookie. McCoy had 270 some carries and they also had Ronnie Brown, so Lewis was not used much.

In 2012 he was listed as questionable for a hamstring injury week one. He was only active for 9 games. So presumably a healthy scratch in five of them. They did use Lewis a bit when McCoy missed some games in the middle of the season. The Eagles used Bryce Brown who was very effective in two games, then not so good in others.

Enter Chip Kelly

The Browns traded Trent Richardson to the Colts. Based on preseaon use it looked like Norv Turner intended to use Dion Lewis as their main RB. He fractured his fibula.

I know the Vikings had Lewis in for a visit after Adrian Peterson was suspended. They did not end up picking him up and instead picked up some scrub TE. 

I speculate that Norv Turner wanted to add Dion Lewis to the roster, but the medical staff had reason to say no.

Dion Lewis is not picked up for the rest of 2014 season, I am sure other teams looked at him too. I think there was a medical reason. A fractured fibula should not take over a year to recover from.

Sources

Wiki

KFFL

I don't know what injuries he had in college. It looks like he only missed one game.

I don't know why a fractured fibula kept him from playing for two seasons.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

David Johnson/Ezekiel Elliott

It's the nature of the position now to look at the level of opportunity as much if not more so than the player himself.

For me, the concern on both is that neither has endured the grind of a 16 game NFL season as 'the guy'.  Yet both are going in the top-mis area of Round 1.  Meanwhile, guys like Devonta Freeman and Doug Martin slide to the mid-back of Round 2.

Not saying these guys will bust...but I think the value is out of whack.

 

[cheese]

I know he's been mentioned but Landry is my vote. Product of volume and game scripts now has a new coach, new system, new everything. He's just a guy to me and there is no reason to think they'll use him similarly this year.  

 

[TartanLion]

Couple of things to recent comments...

Heard on an Audible podcast recently that apparently Cooper really struggled with a foot injury second half of last season. Worth noting as it coincided with a slide in PPG

Tate has been completely fine in the past without Johnson in the team and actually saw an uptick in points, as he got used more on some deep stuff. Still, I likely wont be drafting and prefer Jones in the 8th/9th. Him, Stafford and Ebron are the ones I like at their ADP on Lions this year. As with last year I will completely avoid their backfield at current ADP's as its a mess of a RBBC.

 

[packer_junkie]

is ebron gonna be healthy?

 

[Ilov80s]

is ebron gonna be healthy?

They are saying he will be ready for week 1. It was really overblown, it's an ankle sprain and not anything with the achilles. I don't know if he will be ready for week 1, but he isn't likely to miss much if any time. 

 

[steelers1080]

is ebron gonna be healthy?

The Lions beat reporter predicts he'll be on the field week 1. Not sure what he's basing that on.

Based on ESPN's ADP I'm lower on these players:

• Gronkowski - I would take him at the start of the third, not end of the 1st.
  
• Cam Newton - going 14th overall. I'd take him after 30th, earliest.
  
• Alshon - This is probably just due to what happened last season, but I wouldn't take him until 6th round.
  
• Gostkowski - Currently going in the 9th round.  What?!?!
  

 

[Ilov80s]

The Lions beat reporter predicts he'll be on the field week 1. Not sure what he's basing that on.

If you are ok with rostering 2 TEs, then Ebron might be a great value. He is likely to really fall and be off people's boards after the injury 

Based on ESPN's ADP I'm lower on these players:

• Gronkowski - I would take him at the start of the third, not end of the 1st. Why? Do you take varying lineup requirements into this? 
  
• Cam Newton - going 14th overall. I'd take him after 30th, earliest. Agree, just can't take a QB early. 
  
• Alshon - This is probably just due to what happened last season, but I wouldn't take him until 6th round. What?!?!?!  Over last 41 games he has averaged 82 yards and 0.5 TDs per game. He hurt his hamstring last year, but when he did play, he was very good and a target monster. 
  
• Gostkowski - Currently going in the 9th round.  What?!?! Agree, but there is always that one guy who thinks getting #1 kicker means something