Who are you down on compared to the FF community? (1 Viewer)

[Shutout]

I'll give my list in a second, but I'd like to throw this out there about Hurns... First off, I agree there will be fewer targets to go around and I expect Bortles to regress in TDs (last year they had 35 passing TDs and only 3 RB rushing TDs). However, keep in mind that Hurns was injured last year and played through a sports hernia. He also missed a full game. Also of note, a regression is already being taken into account with his ADP. He finished WR14 and is being drafted as WR30. I think a healthy Hurns, even with a decline in targets, will still easily outperform his ADP.

Ten players I'm down on:

1. Hopkins - totally agree with your pick here. I've never been a huge fan. He runs great routes and has great hands, but he needs a huge target volume against prevent defenses to be a FF WR1. If the Texans games are closer, he's not going to come anywhere near his ADP.

2. Rawls - he's coming off the board way too high (RB12) for a guy who only played meaningful snaps in 6 extremely favorable games. As an added bonus, he's got an ambiguous injury that might keep him out of training camp and preseason while potentially more talented RBs will be getting snaps with the first team.

3. Allen Robinson - I was quite high on him last year, but he's swung too far. If Hurns is going to regress, so will Robinson. But people seem to think they play on different teams as his ADP hasn't taken a hit at all. He's being drafted at his ceiling.

4. David Johnson - there are indications he'll still be splitting time with Chris Johnson and he's not exactly proven over a long duration. Too much risk for RB3 overall for me.

5. Demaryius Thomas - can't believe he's got an ADP of WR13. He played like crap last year and has a very questionable QB situation coming up.

6. Reed - injuries and competition for targets. I wouldn't touch him near his ADP (TE2).

7. Matt Jones - does not look like a good player. RB21 is too much for a guy coming off 3.4 ypc. Will gamble on Marshall at the end of a lot of drafts.

8. Langford - Very similar to Matt Jones but with more competition. Does not belong at RB22. I'll be watching Howard closely, but Fox probably won't let him play much.

9. Ajayi - excellent situation, but injury/durability questions and the fact that he's totally unproven are enough to scare me away from him at RB23. Would rather have a proven talent like Ryan Mathews for the same or cheaper price.

10. Brandin Cooks - he's just not that versatile and will lose targets to Fleener and Mike Thomas. Too pricey at WR14.

I like the list for the same reasons with the exception of Ajayi.  I don't think injury and durability issues come into play at all when we are talking about this year as the thread alludes.  As far as I know he had no injury history in college and the RB position is one where any play is an injury risk for a RB. I don't see him as any more likely to be healthy or hurt than Leveon Bell, Ryan Matthews, Devante Freeman or any other RB really. I couldn't possibly buy a guy like Lamar Miller and disregard injury and then apply it to Ajayi. 

He is unproven in regards to the NFL but no more (less so actually) than Zeke Elliott or Todd Gurley or David Johnson last year. It has to start somewhere and that somewhere is usually looking at how they performed in college, which Ajayi was extremely productive. I think he had over 1800 yards one year, finished 2nd in the nation in TDs. Had something like 50 in his career.  Coming out last year he was one of only 2 RBs that forced 60 or more missed tackles in his last college year.  Several NFL coaches, including Jon Gruden who had first hand knowledge compared him extremely favorable to a guy like Ricky Watters. 

I guess I'm just saying that is a lot of real information (compared to the same type we have on every other rookie who hasn't proven themselves yet) to indicate a likelihood of success so I can't justify a statement that says I would be "scared" to take him at RB23. I mean, I'd have a hard time showing extreme confidence in 10 RBs, let a lone 23 I'd be feeling so much easier about.  He's a RB. He has a "reported concern" of a medical condition (but then again, Drew Bress had a concern reported too and that never came to be) so it's worth a thought but at the end of the day it feels more like picking nits or putting more effort into building a case against than just letting be. It's a lot of effort to outline for a RB23 (meaning if we are talking about a RB23, I personally am not going to get too far down into the minutia agonizing over it...at that point I'm just going on upside and what is known).  At this point, what is known for me is great college production, looked good in limited action last year, has a starting job. That's 70% of the deal in the NFL.  Best ability being availability and all.

 

[FF Ninja]

That is a good point about Hurns ADP. I only do auctions and was basing it off what he was going in dynasty auctions and trades. Obviously dynastys are a little different, but he has been valued well more than wr 30. If that is where he is going then he is a good pick. 

I'm jealous. I'd love to transition all my leagues to auction. I checked the 12-team MFL AAV and Hurns is at $12 which puts him tied with a few guys for WR32-36. Didn't check dynasty AAV, but it would make sense for him to get a bump there due to age (and the big contract can't hurt).

I don't know, I mean he was WR14 in total points and WR18 in average PPG in 2014 on just 127 targets and that was as a second year player and I'm assuming he's become a better player.

Also a lot of people like to knock him for his concussion history and he's not even missed a game.

As a Texans fan this is the first I've heard of a concussion "history" for him. I certainly wasn't trying to knock him for it.

Playing 16 games always helps elevate year end rankings. I'd contend that 2014 was favorable for him in that he still got a lot of targets (for comparison sake, the 12th most targets for a WR was Dez with 136) while Andre was getting double teamed, which I think helped him to nearly 16 ypr. I was never that excited about Hopkins when we drafted him. I thought he was a great WR2, but didn't like the idea of him as our eventual WR1. He was a little shorter than Andre, a LOT slower, and didn't look nearly as powerful. So maybe my "first impression" bias is affecting my opinion on him. Obviously elite metrics aren't necessary (Antonio Brown) but they sure do help.

According to FBG split, he put up 65-37-539-3 last year while "trailing big". I'm thinking/hoping they aren't trailing big very much next year. They also are due to get the TE position involved at some point and would love to utilize an improved running game to decrease the 617 pass attempts they had last year. I just don't see any way Hopkins justifies his ADP this year.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

5. Demaryius Thomas - can't believe he's got an ADP of WR13. He played like crap last year and has a very questionable QB situation coming up.

He certainly played poorly during the playoffs (which is all people seem to remember), but he put up a 105-1,304-6 stat-line during the regular season playing with one of the worst QBs in the league.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Edelman for me. I don't think people quite understand how much of a role Martellus Bennett is going to play. Edelman will still have value but I think his floor plummets this year.  

The Patriots offense is one of the most complex offenses in the league and there have been very few, if any, first year players (rookies or FA acquisitions) that have come in and have earned big roles - and Bennett doesn't come across as a great intellect or hard worker.

 

[FF Ninja]

I like the list for the same reasons with the exception of Ajayi.  I don't think injury and durability issues come into play at all when we are talking about this year as the thread alludes.  As far as I know he had no injury history in college and the RB position is one where any play is an injury risk for a RB. I don't see him as any more likely to be healthy or hurt than Leveon Bell, Ryan Matthews, Devante Freeman or any other RB really. I couldn't possibly buy a guy like Lamar Miller and disregard injury and then apply it to Ajayi. 

He is unproven in regards to the NFL but no more (less so actually) than Zeke Elliott or Todd Gurley or David Johnson last year. It has to start somewhere and that somewhere is usually looking at how they performed in college, which Ajayi was extremely productive. I think he had over 1800 yards one year, finished 2nd in the nation in TDs. Had something like 50 in his career.  Coming out last year he was one of only 2 RBs that forced 60 or more missed tackles in his last college year.  Several NFL coaches, including Jon Gruden who had first hand knowledge compared him extremely favorable to a guy like Ricky Watters. 

I guess I'm just saying that is a lot of real information (compared to the same type we have on every other rookie who hasn't proven themselves yet) to indicate a likelihood of success so I can't justify a statement that says I would be "scared" to take him at RB23. I mean, I'd have a hard time showing extreme confidence in 10 RBs, let a lone 23 I'd be feeling so much easier about.  He's a RB. He has a "reported concern" of a medical condition (but then again, Drew Bress had a concern reported too and that never came to be) so it's worth a thought but at the end of the day it feels more like picking nits or putting more effort into building a case against than just letting be. It's a lot of effort to outline for a RB23 (meaning if we are talking about a RB23, I personally am not going to get too far down into the minutia agonizing over it...at that point I'm just going on upside and what is known).  At this point, what is known for me is great college production, looked good in limited action last year, has a starting job. That's 70% of the deal in the NFL.  Best ability being availability and all.

Eh, it might be the fact that the fan bois in his thread are just so ridiculous that it put me off on the player. They think he's pretty much a given to pan out due to a youtube clip and a fluff piece centered around a one-line coachspeak quote taken from like voluntary workouts without pads. Basically a thread full of desperate dynasty owners looking for confirmation bias or they'll tag team any nay-sayer and cry until you agree with them.

Anyway, you can't compare him to Zeke or Gurley due to draft position. It's just pointless. David Johnson is a slightly more apt comparison, but it's not like he's a given to pan out this year. Small sample size on him, too. But where was he being drafted last year? Much later than RB23. Granted Ajayi has a clearer path to the starting job, but it's not like DJ was buried behind AP.

As for durability, a bum knee was widely reported as the reason he slipped in the draft. Knees are important for RBs. If it was just going to shorten his career, I doubt it would've had that drastic of an impact. Most teams don't want to sign a huge 2nd contract for a RB anyway, so you'd think teams would be content to draft a guy and use him for 4 years on that rookie contract. It doesn't help his case that he missed half his rookie season with an injury. I think it was a rib injury which could happen to anyone, but still not a good start. When he finally did play, he didn't really impress in his small sample size.

All this sounds really negative, but I really won't be surprised if he pans out this year. He's in an excellent position to succeed even if he's a JAG (I'm a big believer in Gase and I'm higher on Tannehill than most). I just don't like his ADP. The FF community always values the unknown over the unsexy veteran. Ajayi is going ahead of Ryan Mathews and Jonathan Stewart. Both guys with career averages of 4.5 ypc, very little competition, and quality offenses.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

 A guy like Manning last year may not have been able to make this throw or that one but he could still intellectually pick you apart. 

Actually he was a lot better at throwing picks than picking apart opposing defenses. He was horrific last season, and defenses did not fear him at all.

 

[Biabreakable]

I really don't know what Shane Vereen has to do with this. THat's like saying since one Green Bay Wr (or 3) had great success then Devante Adams will too.  It's different players on different teams.  Vereen is not Lewis. 

This is New England, perhaps that bears some similarity. I remember people thinking Vereen was going to catch 100 receptions in this offense and based on where he is being drafted it looks like expectations are similarly as high for Lewis. No they are not the same players but the team and situation are the same. 

 

[fightingillini]

I think people who just look at the stats are who are propping up his ADP. If he plays like he did last year and doesn't get a crazy amount of targets (177 last year) then he's not going to justify his ADP. I mean, he finished WR13 last year (0ppr) and is being drafted WR13 this year (0ppr).

And you are right, Peyton wasn't very good last year, but as a team, the Denver QB ranked 22nd in fantasy points. You think they'll be better than that this year? I know it isn't a really high bar, but I expect them to be in the bottom 3rd of the league this year. So you gotta expect the QB to be better than that and/or for Thomas to rank 4th in targets again for him to justify his ADP. Personally, I don't feel confident in either so Thomas is an easy pass for me.

DT won't get nearly the amount of targets because I think DEN is going to run the ball an insane amount.

Agree, WR13 is too high.  DT will be a decent/low WR2.  WR20 is more like it. 

 

[FF Ninja]

He certainly played poorly during the playoffs (which is all people seem to remember), but he put up a 105-1,304-6 stat-line during the regular season playing with one of the worst QBs in the league.

As I mentioned on page 1, as a team QB, Denver ranked 22nd in passing fantasy points so for fantasy purposes he wasn't actually playing with the worst QB in the league. He was probably playing with a better fantasy QB than he'll be playing with this year.

He also ranked 4th in targets and finished WR13 (0ppr). His 0ppr ADP is currently WR13. So unless you think the Denver QB will be better than 22nd AND Thomas will get a ton of target OR he finds a way to boost that YPR or catch rate then I don't recommend him this year at or near his ADP.

This huge target volume topic reminded me of another player that I want no part of:

Jarvis Landry - I have no idea how I forgot him earlier. He's a small, slow slot guy that requires a ton of targets. He finished WR17 last year (despite being 6th in targets) and has an ADP of WR20 this year. His stats were a product of 167 targets and 17 rushes for 111-1. With Parker and Carroo in the mix (in addition to the underutilized Stills) I don't see how he could repeat that target volume. We also don't know if Gase will employ him as a runner again this year (only two WR rushes in CHI last year, 10 total in two seasons at DEN). If his targets slip to a more reasonable 110-120 in the new offense, he'll struggle to put up WR3 numbers. Also of note, they are paying Jordan Cameron a lot of money for a guy who only got 70 targets in 16 games last year. Gase has used his TEs well in Denver and Chicago.

 

[fightingillini]

Regarding D. Thomas - I agree his situation is iffy at QB, but I also agree that it can't be worse than last year. And, he is one of three WR's in the history of the NFL to record at least 90 receptions and 1300 yards in four consecutive seasons - Rice and Harrison being the other two. So he is pretty darn consistent and stays healthy (hasn't missed a game in four years). If he doesn't drop all those passes last year, he would have finished top 10 easily. 

So I'm cautiously optimistic that he continues to put up good numbers, though I completely understand there are risks too.

But I want to be compensated for that risk.  As Ninja pointed out, he is going to need to have a similar year to 2015 to justify the ADP.  IMO, DT is more likely to go down than to return to elite status.  It's too bad, becuase I love DT's talent.

 

[Hartliner]

The Patriots offense is one of the most complex offenses in the league and there have been very few, if any, first year players (rookies or FA acquisitions) that have come in and have earned big roles - and Bennett doesn't come across as a great intellect or hard worker.

FWIW- Bennet, I know to be an intellect, one of his passions is 3D animation. Not kidding, dude is smart, although I guess you can argue that the intellect to understand animation principles doesn't lend to understanding patriots playbook. But I think it does. 

 

[Dr. Octopus]

As I mentioned on page 1, as a team QB, Denver ranked 22nd in passing fantasy points so for fantasy purposes he wasn't actually playing with the worst QB in the league. He was probably playing with a better fantasy QB than he'll be playing with this year.

Maybe, just maybe he had something to do with helping the QB's fantasy stats? I remember him baling out Manning big time in the Kansas City game at least. I don't watch every Denver game, but even when Manning was still viable, DT turned short passes in the flat into big gains.

I doubt Sanchez is any worse than Manning was last year. His biggest downfall is being mistake prone - he was always able to move the offense even with far inferior weapons to what the Broncos have in place.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

FWIW- Bennet, I know to be an intellect, one of his passions is 3D animation. Not kidding, dude is smart, although I guess you can argue that the intellect to understand animation principles doesn't lend to understanding patriots playbook. But I think it does. 

He's known to have a poor work ethic so I'm not sure his hobbies will translate well. Though I do apologize for questioning his intelligence. He doesn't present well, but that doesn't always tell the full story.

 

[FF Ninja]

Maybe, just maybe he had something to do with helping the QB's fantasy stats? I remember him baling out Manning big time in the Kansas City game at least. I don't watch every Denver game, but even when Manning was still viable, DT turned short passes in the flat into big gains.

I doubt Sanchez is any worse than Manning was last year. His biggest downfall is being mistake prone - he was always able to move the offense even with far inferior weapons to what the Broncos have in place.

Maybe. But his catch rate was not exactly high, his YPR was pretty low, and his TD/rec ratio was very low. I don't really see anything in those stats to justify the stance that he helped the QB's fantasy stats, but like you, I don't watch every Denver game so I can't speak definitively.

Do we know that Sanchez will start all 16 games? If they start off poorly they could turn to the rookie which could be really ugly for the WRs. I honestly don't know how to project the Denver QB. I agree Sanchez isn't terrible, but is he better than 21 other QBs? Or even if the answer is yes, will Kubiak allow him the freedom to put up meaningful FF stats? Kubes is a pretty conservative coach. Give him a running game and a defense and he's not going to open it up a lot. However, give him a porous defense and a big deficit and he can squeeze some good production out of an average QB with a weak arm and good short to mid range accuracy (Schaub). I just think the 2016 Broncos fit the former to a T.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Maybe. But his catch rate was not exactly high, his YPR was pretty low, and his TD/rec ratio was very low. I don't really see anything in those stats to justify the stance that he helped the QB's fantasy stats, but like you, I don't watch every Denver game so I can't speak definitively.

I was actually coming back to edit my response to eliminate some of the snark, but his low rate stats likely had plenty to do with the ducks Manning was throwing last season. From the games I did watch - outside of the playoff games Sanders and Thomas did everything they could possibly do but Manning was very very bad. The offense actually picked up quite a bit when Osweiler first took over - but he then had his issue throwing deep as well, albeit for far different reasons than Manning. 

 

[FF Ninja]

I was actually coming back to edit my response to eliminate some of the snark, but his low rate stats likely had plenty to do with the ducks Manning was throwing last season. From the games I did watch - outside of the playoff games Sanders and Thomas did everything they could possibly do but Manning was very very bad. The offense actually picked up quite a bit when Osweiler first took over - but he then had his issue throwing deep as well, albeit for far different reasons than Manning. 

Pssh. I don't mind it. I'm sure you've weathered some incidental snark from me at some point. I don't mean anything by it so I'm not looking to get offended by anyone else's.

Don't get me wrong, I agree Manning was throwing ducks, but his 6.8 YPA still exceeds Sanchez's career 6.68 YPA mark. On the whole, DENQB threw 606 passes for 4216 and 19 TD. I don't expect next year's stats to eclipse those numbers. I really won't be shocked if Denver is closer to 500 attempts than 600.

Some of my concern comes from my belief in Matt Harmon's reception perception. It's been a while so I can't remember the details, but IIRC the gist of his study on DT was that he just isn't a complete receiver. Combine that with him looking bad in the games I watched and a shaky QB situation, I just can't buy into him at his current redraft price tag.

 

[massraider]

I traded DT last year at the trade deadline.

I worry about his situation, and also, when we are talking about his QB this year:  he might start the season with Sanchez, but it's anyone's guess eho his QB will be in the fantasy playoffs.  I know every draft guy said that Lynch needs a year on the bench, and the Broncos might prefer that, but it rarely tends to happen in the NFL.  

 

[Pastor]

I'm jealous. I'd love to transition all my leagues to auction. I checked the 12-team MFL AAV and Hurns is at $12 which puts him tied with a few guys for WR32-36. Didn't check dynasty AAV, but it would make sense for him to get a bump there due to age (and the big contract can't hurt).

.

Then one of my auctions greatly raised that avg. He went for 49 in a $400 auction. His trade value also seemed high to me. Thanks for looking up those stats. 

 

[menobrown]

As a Texans fan this is the first I've heard of a concussion "history" for him. I certainly wasn't trying to knock him for it.

Playing 16 games always helps elevate year end rankings. I'd contend that 2014 was favorable for him in that he still got a lot of targets (for comparison sake, the 12th most targets for a WR was Dez with 136) while Andre was getting double teamed, which I think helped him to nearly 16 ypr. I was never that excited about Hopkins when we drafted him. I thought he was a great WR2, but didn't like the idea of him as our eventual WR1. He was a little shorter than Andre, a LOT slower, and didn't look nearly as powerful. So maybe my "first impression" bias is affecting my opinion on him. Obviously elite metrics aren't necessary (Antonio Brown) but they sure do help.

According to FBG split, he put up 65-37-539-3 last year while "trailing big". I'm thinking/hoping they aren't trailing big very much next year. They also are due to get the TE position involved at some point and would love to utilize an improved running game to decrease the 617 pass attempts they had last year. I just don't see any way Hopkins justifies his ADP this year.

Never said you knocked him for concussion history but it's come up for me when people send me trade offers for him but a little surprised you've never heard about it.

And I still  disagree he needs high volume to be a #1 WR, I mean no more than any other #1WR needs some kind of volume. Proof was in the pudding in his 2014 season, and again he's a better player now.

It's not really about 16 games elevating. He got the 22nd most targets in 2014 and finished as WR14. Only one of the 13 WR's ahead of him got less targets, Mike Evans. Again point is he does not need a monster volume to be a #1 fantasy WR, he just a decent target load like every other WR.

Same thing last year, he got a ton of targets but finished as WR#3 and the only two WR's who finished ahead of him got more targets.

When Dez is putting up 15-16 TD's in the 130 target range his fantasy points to target ratio is pretty much trumping every other WR and if you compared his production on targets it's going to make almost every other WR pale in comparison.

I don't really buy into the notion the Texans are planning on passing a lot less either. They just spent the majority of their cap money on receiving help and a QB and the two RB's they got via FA and the draft are both excellent in the passing game. All of this should work to reduce Hopkins target load but also to make him more efficient.

Point of this thread was people you are lower on than most, in the sense of him living up to his ADP I don't disagree with that, I just disagree he has need for higher volume to be a #1 WR more than any WR needs it. I think if he gets 150 targets he'll be a top 8 WR, I also think he gets more targets than that.

 

[menobrown]

Regarding DT. The way he ended the year in the playoffs was concerning. I think he other issues going on and he's to young for me to believe he's slipping but it was concerning to see but I don't worry about QB with him.

DT to me, more than any WR in the NFL, proved he could be QB proof and I don't say that because of the bad QB play from last season. I say it because of Tebow. The year Tebow started DT was coming off his injury, did not debut until week 7 and started slowly. Then he went on a 7 game stretch, including playoffs, with Tebow as his QB and posted 19 fantasy points a game and did it fairly consistently with only one bad game among the 7. We are talking Tim Tebow.

 

[FF Ninja]

Never said you knocked him for concussion history but it's come up for me when people send me trade offers for him but a little surprised you've never heard about it.

And I still  disagree he needs high volume to be a #1 WR, I mean no more than any other #1WR needs some kind of volume. Proof was in the pudding in his 2014 season, and again he's a better player now.

It's not really about 16 games elevating. He got the 22nd most targets in 2014 and finished as WR14. Only one of the 13 WR's ahead of him got less targets, Mike Evans. Again point is he does not need a monster volume to be a #1 fantasy WR, he just a decent target load like every other WR.

Same thing last year, he got a ton of targets but finished as WR#3 and the only two WR's who finished ahead of him got more targets.

When Dez is putting up 15-16 TD's in the 130 target range his fantasy points to target ratio is pretty much trumping every other WR and if you compared his production on targets it's going to make almost every other WR pale in comparison.

I don't really buy into the notion the Texans are planning on passing a lot less either. They just spent the majority of their cap money on receiving help and a QB and the two RB's they got via FA and the draft are both excellent in the passing game. All of this should work to reduce Hopkins target load but also to make him more efficient.

Point of this thread was people you are lower on than most, in the sense of him living up to his ADP I don't disagree with that, I just disagree he has need for higher volume to be a #1 WR more than any WR needs it. I think if he gets 150 targets he'll be a top 8 WR, I also think he gets more targets than that.

Well, like you said, he's never missed a game so as a Texans fan I had no reason to worry about a concussion history. I also have never had him on a FF team, nor tried to trade for him, so these discussions just haven't come up for me.

How can you say 2014 is proof he doesn't need a lot of targets? As I already pointed out, he had the benefit of AJ drawing double teams (including the other team's CB1), when he put up WR14 numbers on 127 targets. As the WR1, I still contend that he needs a lot of targets. I don't think he'll be approaching 15.9 YPR ever again. FWIW, in 2014, he was tied for 20th in targets but 13th-22nd were separated by only a few targets. Just 4 more targets would've tied him for 13th. The additional 4 targets probably would've bumped him up at least 3 points to WR13, but almost definitely wouldn't have made the jump to WR12 (would've needed 20 non-PPR points and he averaged 1.24 points per target). So even as the WR2 for his team, he wasn't exactly punching above his weight class (target volume). As a WR1, he averaged 1.14 points per target.

And just to correct/add to those rankings, he actually only finished WR6 last year in 0PPR despite being #3 in targets*. And 32% of his FF points came while "trailing big". For comparison sake, Brown was at 13% and Julio was at 17%. So I stand by my assessment that his FF output was largely a product of volume and circumstance.

I could be wrong, but I believe the Texans ran the most plays in the NFL last year. They also threw the ball 617 times. All signs point to a regression on both stats. And as you said, they brought in some more targets for Osweiller. As Hopkins is the undisputed WR1, I don't think these rookies are really going to draw significant coverage from him. Definitely not in the way AJ did back in 2014. But they could steal targets.

Last year 150 targets would've put Hopkins at 9th. I'd be shocked if he was able to finish WR8 on the 9th most targets. Maybe if those targets were coming from Rodgers, but I don't think he's the kind of WR who can make it happen on targets from avg to below avg QBs (unless he's playing against a prevent defense). He has good hands and runs good routes, but he's not a speedster nor does he strike me as particularly good after the catch.

*One of my problems with PPR is that end of year rankings far too often mirror target stats. Actual production gets washed out in favor of volume.

 

[menobrown]

How can you say 2014 is proof he doesn't need a lot of targets? As I already pointed out, he had the benefit of AJ drawing double teams (including the other team's CB1), when he put up WR14 numbers on 127 targets. As the WR1, I still contend that he needs a lot of targets. I don't think he'll be approaching 15.9 YPR ever again. FWIW, in 2014, he

Because he showed he's better versus other WR's on  per target basis. WR22 in targets, WR14 in production. And I disagree that AJ was drawing double teams that year, NFL teams saw what Texans coaching staff saw when they kicked him to the curb, a declining player.

And just to correct/add to those rankings, he actually only finished WR6 last year in 0PPR despite being #3 in targets*.

No, that's a not a correction, that's a different scoring system. I don't play zero PPR, you do. I'm giving PPR stats, you are not. Neither of us are wrong.

Last year 150 targets would've put Hopkins at 9th. I'd be shocked if he was able to finish WR8 on the 9th most targets. Maybe if those targets were coming from Rodgers, but I don't think he's the kind of WR who can make it happen on targets from avg to below avg QBs (unless he's playing against a prevent defense). He has good hands and runs good routes, but he's not a speedster nor does he strike me as particularly good after the catch.

Hopkins was less efficient on a per target basis last year than previous season. Which is major reason the Texans went out of their way to add to the pass catchers to help free him up.  Stands to reason he'll be more efficient with less coverage rolled his way. I think it's low balling actually but if he got 150 targets and had exact same efficiency as when he was a second year player(again he's better now so I think I'm lowballing him) he would have scored as WR8 last year.

As for his QB he's shown to be QB proof and he might have the best one yet he's played with.

I'll let you have the last word, beat this argument to death, but I think I've done everything I can to show Hopkins does not need a monster target load to be a WR1, he just needs normal WR1 type of usage.

 

[steelers1080]

• Devonta Freeman - Small and had a poor 2nd half, think Coleman could be a factor
  
• Stefon Diggs - 2 new WRs to take targets
  
• Cam Newton - Just keep seeing him as #1 QB and I don't think he's top 5 this year, possibly due to injury.
  
• Jordan Reed - I think he has a great year! Until he gets hurt.  So, not the #1 TE which some people are saying.
  
• Todd Gurley - People are saying top 3 RB and I'm worried if they actually throw this year.
  
• Lamar Miller - What if there's a good reason he's never been a workhorse back?
  
• Keenan Allen - I just don't like him.  Reason?  None.
  
• CJ Anderson - Some people think that he'll be the starter all year, I think he'll be bumped by week 8.
  

 

[gabes1919]

Just going down the ADP, these guys stand out to me.

Cooks - I've never been convinced of his talent. Last was a hot finish but I think it has more to do with the emergence of players around him. He may be a great 1B or 2 guy but I don't see him as performing well as the 1 he's being represented as. Add in a better pass catcher in Fleener and Thomas replacing Colston, I'm not excited for his cost. Low WR2 at best for me.

Miller - New system, new QB, being drafted ahead of guys who have made the big impact before. I think the learning curve on that offense will affect everyone, Hopkins included. I think Hopkins will still be a WR1 but his catch total may go down while his YAC rises. Miller I think will take until mid-season to get rolling and then could be a hot item. I will be trading for him after a weak start to the season.

Peterson - This year might be the year the wheels fall off. He had some serious dud games last year and that worries me. Somebody is going to be right eventually at predicting his downfall.

Parker - Still has to prove it and is being taken a little to high for my blood. I think we have one more year of Landry being the guy to own there. Parker will have some boom games but I don't know if you can predict them or depend on him.

Rawls - I agree with a lot of others. Great talent when healthy but his health is in serious doubt and it's not really built in to his ADP at this time.

L. Murray - I don't know why people seem to think he has a stranglehold on that backfield. He's not that good, he was only solid in about half of his games last year. He may lose the job but will definitely lose touches to Washington.

I very much disagree with the Sanders talk around here. The guy gets open and makes plays. He runs the shorter routes and those are the ones that a bad or inexperienced QB will go to as a safety blanket. There is no TE there at the moment so I would be moving Sanders and CJA up and DT down. Also don't get the hate on Hilton. The guy was a 1k receiver 3 years straight and even with Hasselbeck last year. He's a little boom/bust but he is easily a WR2 with good WR1 potential.

 

[FF Ninja]

Because he showed he's better versus other WR's on  per target basis. WR22 in targets, WR14 in production. And I disagree that AJ was drawing double teams that year, NFL teams saw what Texans coaching staff saw when they kicked him to the curb, a declining player.

No, that's a not a correction, that's a different scoring system. I don't play zero PPR, you do. I'm giving PPR stats, you are not. Neither of us are wrong.

Hopkins was less efficient on a per target basis last year than previous season. Which is major reason the Texans went out of their way to add to the pass catchers to help free him up.  Stands to reason he'll be more efficient with less coverage rolled his way. I think it's low balling actually but if he got 150 targets and had exact same efficiency as when he was a second year player(again he's better now so I think I'm lowballing him) he would have scored as WR8 last year.

As for his QB he's shown to be QB proof and he might have the best one yet he's played with.

I'll let you have the last word, beat this argument to death, but I think I've done everything I can to show Hopkins does not need a monster target load to be a WR1, he just needs normal WR1 type of usage.

I feel like I just thoroughly addressed this in the last post, but you are repeating yourself like I didn't. He was tied for WR20 in targets and only 4 targets away from being WR13 in targets, so finishing WR14 isn't exactly lighting the world on fire. And I totally understand if this doesn't mean anything to you, but I did watch all 16 games that year and AJ was absolutely drawing the other team's CB1 and periodically double teamed. And he actually had a good year in 2014. Not only did other teams know he was going to get the most targets but he was beating man coverage, so he was the focus of the defense. From the linked article: "He beat man coverage at a 69.9 percent success rate last season, and did battle with number-one corners throughout the year despite DeAndre Hopkins’ stellar performance on the other side." So get amped about Hopkins' 2014 season if you want to, but he was clearly playing against weaker talent than he was in 2015 as the WR1, so don't use that season to say he doesn't need volume to produce as a WR1. For that very reason, this statement of yours is invalid: "if he got 150 targets and had exact same efficiency as when he was a second year player..." He's probably never going to have that efficiency again unless he goes to a team where he's the WR2.

I get that you think he's improved, but I don't think it is very significant. I recall one of the big items in the "pro" column for Hopkins when he was coming out of college was the notion that he was the most NFL ready WR in his class. It's not like he was some raw project, so I don't think his improvement from year 2 to year 4 is going to be statistically significant.

As for the "correction" that's exactly why I said "just to correct/add to those rankings". You didn't state scoring system so I thought it was worth adding that he only reached WR3 status in a system built to reward volume, so it shouldn't be surprising that the guy with the third most targets and the third most receptions finished 3rd in a scoring system that gives you a full point per reception.

You are again repeating yourself rather than making a counterpoint with your statement about the extra WRs. As I've already pointed out, Hopkins needs to be facing the #2 CB to improve his points per target numbers. These new guys aren't going to do that. The Fuller draft pick was pretty much universally panned and Miller is a project who likely won't have a big role his rookie year. There's a solid chance the new guys won't be as good as the player (Nate Washington) that has departed the team. So I'll be shocked if there's a significant change in coverage.

And aside from repeating yourself, you are totally ignoring the garbage time statistics I provided. Does it not concern you that 32% of his stats last year came from that when his peers were drastically lower in that regard? If he has fewer targets and less garbage time, he's going to really struggle to justify his ADP.

I'm not really interested in having the last word, but I feel obligated to reply when you blatantly ignore important points and simply re-state already disproven narratives. If that is "doing everything you can to show Hopkins doesn't need monster targets to be a WR1" then all the more reason others should be concerned.

 

[Boston]

Edelman for me. I don't think people quite understand how much of a role Martellus Bennett is going to play. Edelman will still have value but I think his floor plummets this year.  

I could not disagree with this more...Edelman's (and Gronk's) value will remain the same regardless of who he plays with...Welker was the same way...the thing about BB is he will run it up as much as possible...he usually does not take the foot off the pedal and with the Deflategate stuff I see it even more if they can do it...if Bennett lights it up it just means the offense is that much better (and it could take away from someone like an Amendola but it will have no effect on Edelman)...if anything it makes him more dangerous because it's another weapon for defenses to worry about...now if you worry about Edelman getting hurt because of his reckless style of play that is a legit concern but if he is healthy he will put up big numbers...

 

[barackdhouse]

As I said originally, I expect Edelman's floor to drop but that he will still have value. Bennett is far greater than Hernandez, IMO, and will carve a large role. NE has wanted the dominant 2 TE offense for awhile now. I am quite sure Edelman will get his, but I'm betting he has some really bad weeks as well. And that is not factoring potential injuries or age. I don't put too much stock in those issues anyway, but true to the point of the post I will be avoiding Edelman at his price.

 

[Tau837]

Ezekiel Elliot... To be clear, I'm not saying he is going to be bad. I can see 200 carries at 5 ypc and 6 TDs rushing. Plus, 25 catches at 10 ypc and a TD. 1250/7 combined is a nice stat line for a rookie... I just don't think the Cowboys need to give Zeke a high volume workload. 

Without getting into the rest of your take, projecting 200 carries seems pretty low unless you expect him to miss multiple games.

• McFadden had 239 last season, despite starting only 10 of the 16 games he played.
  
• Murray had 392 in 2014.
  
• Murray had 217 in 14 games in 2013.
  
• Murray had 161 in 10 games in 2012.
  
• As a rookie in 2011, Murray had just 25 carries in the first 5 games, then had 139 in the other 8 games he played.
  

That is the full list of the primary RBs each season under Garrett, with Romo at QB, Dez as the lead WR, and Witten at TE. Even throwing out 2014, IMO it appears that 240 carries should be a floor for Elliot unless you are projecting missed games. Of course, he might not average 5 ypc, which might wash out the extra carries. I'm just saying that 200 looks pretty light.

Dion Lewis.

Good post. To summarize, it seems you are saying you think he will be productive when on the field, but you are down on him because you expect him to miss games (and it seems you probably expect more than just a missed game or two) and thus you feel his ADP is too high. All of that seems reasonable.

What I disagree with is that you seem to suggest Lewis is not much better than White or Vereen. I disagree strongly with that. I sampled one of my non-PPR leagues from last year (but with 0.5 points for rushing/receiving first downs) -- Lewis averaged 14.2 ppg, even including the game he was hurt; in the games after Lewis was hurt, White averaged 10.6 ppg. I sampled one of my PPR leagues from last year -- Lewis averaged 17.5 ppg, including the game he was hurt; in the games after Lewis was hurt, White averaged 13.6 ppg. That is a pretty big difference in both cases. I didn't go to the trouble of looking up Vereen's numbers, but I seriously doubt he ever performed at the level Lewis did last season.

I think this is one where you just have to use the eye ball test and watch a lot of the Patriots games to understand. This team was on an entirely different level with Lewis and he brings something to them they can't match.

I am not down on Elliot either but I just am not expecting the same kind of production as most others seem to. Based on the offers I have seen in the thread talking about trading for the #1 spot in rookie drafts and what people have/are turning down- he basically needs to have a 2K yard season with 15 TD's to justify some of this.

Rookie drafts imply dynasty. He doesn't have to run for 2K yards this season (or any season) to justify his high dynasty value.

 

[Tau837]

According to FBG split, he put up 65-37-539-3 last year while "trailing big". I'm thinking/hoping they aren't trailing big very much next year. They also are due to get the TE position involved at some point and would love to utilize an improved running game to decrease the 617 pass attempts they had last year. I just don't see any way Hopkins justifies his ADP this year.

ESPN splits show that Hopkins had 36/504/2 when Houston trailed by 9+ points. So apparently there is a 35 yard TD being counted by FBG that was when Houston was down by 8 or fewer points.

Anyway, using the ESPN splits, that means he had 75/1017/9 in situations when they were not trailing by multiple scores.

It looks like the Texans ran approximately 26% of their plays while trailing by 9+ points. Let's say the Texans cut that in half this season. Just applying the splits above results in the following:

• 75/1017/9 for 87% of the plays rather than 74% = roughly 88/1196/11 when not trailing by 9+ points
  
• 36/504/2 for 13% of the plays rather than 26% = 18/257/1 when trailing by 9+ points
  
• That totals to 106/1453/12... the TDs are perhaps suspect and likely the most volatile, so maybe those end up overestimated by this method. So let's drop it by 2 TDs to 106/1453/10.
  

Sure, that is a bit less than 111/1521/11, but it is a top 5 WR performance.

It is legit to wonder if his targets will be reduced, though those arguments could be potentially countered by arguing the quality of his targets could be better with better skill around him on offense, including (theoretically) at QB. Consider that Hopkins is known as a great route runner with good hands, but he only caught 58% of his targets last season; improved QB play and fewer double teams could easily mean a reduction in his targets is offset by improved production per target.

It is also a legit question to wonder if the Texans can truly cut the percentage of plays they run while trailing by 9+ points in half.

Regardless, I think the effect of garbage time on Hopkins' 2015 performance is likely being overestimated by some.

 

[Biabreakable]

Good post. To summarize, it seems you are saying you think he will be productive when on the field, but you are down on him because you expect him to miss games (and it seems you probably expect more than just a missed game or two) and thus you feel his ADP is too high. All of that seems reasonable.

What I disagree with is that you seem to suggest Lewis is not much better than White or Vereen. I disagree strongly with that. I sampled one of my non-PPR leagues from last year (but with 0.5 points for rushing/receiving first downs) -- Lewis averaged 14.2 ppg, even including the game he was hurt; in the games after Lewis was hurt, White averaged 10.6 ppg. I sampled one of my PPR leagues from last year -- Lewis averaged 17.5 ppg, including the game he was hurt; in the games after Lewis was hurt, White averaged 13.6 ppg. That is a pretty big difference in both cases. I didn't go to the trouble of looking up Vereen's numbers, but I seriously doubt he ever performed at the level Lewis did last season.

2015 Dion Lewis 7 games 99 opportunities (14.1/gm) 49 rushing attempts 234 rush yards 4.8ypc 2TD 50 targets (7.1/gm) 36 receptions (5.1/gm) 388 yards 10.8ypc 2TD 622 combined yards 89 combined yards/game .57 TD/game 6.3 yards/opportunity

2013 Shane Vereen 8 games 113 opportunities (14.1/gm) 44 rushing attempts 208 rushing yards 4.7ypc 1TD 69 targets (8.6/gm) 47 receptions (5.9/gm) 427 yards 9.1ypc 3TD 635 combined yards 79 combined yards/game .5TD/game 5.6 yards/opportunity.

Remarkably similar performance, Vereen had one more game, Lewis had 10 more combined yards/game.

Shane Vereen going into 2014 being drafted similarly high but perhaps not quite as high as Lewis is right now. He played in all 16 games in 2014. His rushing attempts did double but he only had 77 targets and 52 receptions despite twice as many games.

This is an example of why 7 or 8 games is not a large enough sample size to project 50% of the total

New England will change their offense from game to game depending on the defense and there will be games that they just don't throw to the RB as much because of other favorable match ups, then there will be games where the RB gets used more for the same reason.

Lewis was remarkably consistent in his 7 games as far as targets and receptions. 

2015 NE RB had 141 targets split between 4 players (Lewis, White, Bolden, Blount) Edelman only played in 9 games but he averaged 9.7 targets/game when he played, which is similar to his targets/game from the previous two seasons.

2014 Ne RB had 97 targets split between 5 players (Vereen, Bolden, White, Ridley, Blount) 

2013 NE RB had 115 targets split between 4 players (Vereen, Bolden, Ridley, Blount)

Before that NE had Danny Woodhead whos highest targets was 55 in 2012 when he played in 16 games.

I think some of the RB targets from last season will shift back to Edelman and Bennett will likely get more targets than Chandler had last season. Who replaces Lafell and how often they are used is another factor to consider as far as how targets will be split up. It looks like Brady will miss 4 games which likely means less effective passing while he is out.

I do like Lewis, I see good qualities in him and good reason to keep feeding him targets. 

I dont like his ADP.

I don't like his ADP because of the risk of injury, which seems a lot higher with him than other guys, and also the risk that the target volume may not be there, or be there as consistently as it was during those 7 games. While James White was not that effective as a runner, he was pretty good as a receiver and I could see targets being split between the two when both are healthy. Not sure if Bolden is still in the mix but he had 30 targets last season even with Lewis/White having 104 combined. He had 29 targets in 2013. Not sure why he wasn't used as much in 2014. In any case more than one RB will get targets.

Edelman being out 7 games (along with Lewis's 9) is likely what led to more targets for all the RB. So maybe it is Lewis/White splitting most of the targets with not much to Bolden, with fewer overall targets to RB players. Similar to what they have done in previous seasons with other very gifted receiving RB available. Both Woodhead and Vereen have been targeted more after they left NE.

 

[ZWK]

In PPR leagues, last year Dion Lewis ranked 5th among RBs in points per game with 17.5 ppg over his 7 games (and 3 of the guys who finished ahead of him actually played fewer games than he did - Bell, Charles, and Foster). And Edelman & Gronk were on the field for all 7 of those games, so Lewis wasn't just eating up targets when they had no one else to throw to.

Vereen's 2013 was somewhat similar in terms of production (16.8 ppg for 8 games), although if you include the playoffs Vereen only had 15.4 ppg over 10 games. Plus, Gronk was out for 6 of those 10 games.

Lewis definitely has extra injury risk, but other than that I like his prospects this season.

 

[Biabreakable]

The question is if that PPG is sustainable?

Lets assume that Lewis does stay healthy all season. How many targets and receptions does that mean?

Over the course of the season I would expect the PPG to go down and Lewis end of season numbers may look similar to Theo Riddick from last season and he finished as RB 18 last year in PPR. That is with 80 receptions, which based on NE history seems optimistic.

Theo Riddick is going at pick 91 overall. Dion Lewis has now moved up to 38 and climbing.

 

[Boston]

The question is if that PPG is sustainable?

Lets assume that Lewis does stay healthy all season. How many targets and receptions does that mean?

Over the course of the season I would expect the PPG to go down and Lewis end of season numbers may look similar to Theo Riddick from last season and he finished as RB 18 last year in PPR. That is with 80 receptions, which based on NE history seems optimistic.

Theo Riddick is going at pick 91 overall. Dion Lewis has now moved up to 38 and climbing.

I don't see Riddick as a good comparison...he is pretty one-dimensional...I think Lewis will carry the ball more than Riddick does and he is far more explosive than Riddick is so he has more potential for TDs...the injury risk with Lewis is huge but another x-factor is the Foster kid from Arizona State...total wildcard (he might not even make the team) but he did catch the ball well in college and is someone the media has been hyping...that being said I think he is more of a threat to take White's role which is basically the backup to Lewis...

 

[Biabreakable]

Yeah I have heard the rumors about Arian Foster and NE possibly being in the future.

I think Foster is pretty much done and if he does play he may not be healthy long. But who knows. Of all the teams in the NFL that I can see making it work, the Pats are that team. Free agents have had a lot of success going there. Not all of them, but several have. So the possibility does make a bit of sense. Seems like Foster;s best choice to try to get a ring if he cares about that. 

Bill has brought guys off the street and played them before. Just never know what the mad scientist might do next.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

Well, like you said, he's never missed a game so as a Texans fan I had no reason to worry about a concussion history. I also have never had him on a FF team, nor tried to trade for him, so these discussions just haven't come up for me.

How can you say 2014 is proof he doesn't need a lot of targets? As I already pointed out, he had the benefit of AJ drawing double teams (including the other team's CB1), when he put up WR14 numbers on 127 targets. As the WR1, I still contend that he needs a lot of targets. I don't think he'll be approaching 15.9 YPR ever again. FWIW, in 2014, he was tied for 20th in targets but 13th-22nd were separated by only a few targets. Just 4 more targets would've tied him for 13th. The additional 4 targets probably would've bumped him up at least 3 points to WR13, but almost definitely wouldn't have made the jump to WR12 (would've needed 20 non-PPR points and he averaged 1.24 points per target). So even as the WR2 for his team, he wasn't exactly punching above his weight class (target volume). As a WR1, he averaged 1.14 points per target.

And just to correct/add to those rankings, he actually only finished WR6 last year in 0PPR despite being #3 in targets*. And 32% of his FF points came while "trailing big". For comparison sake, Brown was at 13% and Julio was at 17%. So I stand by my assessment that his FF output was largely a product of volume and circumstance.

I could be wrong, but I believe the Texans ran the most plays in the NFL last year. They also threw the ball 617 times. All signs point to a regression on both stats. And as you said, they brought in some more targets for Osweiller. As Hopkins is the undisputed WR1, I don't think these rookies are really going to draw significant coverage from him. Definitely not in the way AJ did back in 2014. But they could steal targets.

Last year 150 targets would've put Hopkins at 9th. I'd be shocked if he was able to finish WR8 on the 9th most targets. Maybe if those targets were coming from Rodgers, but I don't think he's the kind of WR who can make it happen on targets from avg to below avg QBs (unless he's playing against a prevent defense). He has good hands and runs good routes, but he's not a speedster nor does he strike me as particularly good after the catch.

*One of my problems with PPR is that end of year rankings far too often mirror target stats. Actual production gets washed out in favor of volume.

I am curious, where are you projecting DHop to finish? Outside the top 12? Outside the top 24? 

I have started seeing this notion that DHop's target rate isn't sustainable and it reminded of what folks on this board used to say about Roddy White's game. Year after year Roddy would finish in the top 12 and the next off season we would see similar posts about his target rate being unsustainable. Yet White sustained those target rates, even with Julio's presence, until age caught up with him. 

 

[32 Counter Pass]

In PPR leagues, last year Dion Lewis ranked 5th among RBs in points per game with 17.5 ppg over his 7 games (and 3 of the guys who finished ahead of him actually played fewer games than he did - Bell, Charles, and Foster). And Edelman & Gronk were on the field for all 7 of those games, so Lewis wasn't just eating up targets when they had no one else to throw to.

Vereen's 2013 was somewhat similar in terms of production (16.8 ppg for 8 games), although if you include the playoffs Vereen only had 15.4 ppg over 10 games. Plus, Gronk was out for 6 of those 10 games.

Lewis definitely has extra injury risk, but other than that I like his prospects this season.

How does the looming 4 game suspension of Brady play into his prospects? Do you think that issue is already built into his ADP? 

 

[bostonfred]

I started this post to say Lewis was unsustainably awesome last year.   That touchdown against Dallas was a great play but you can't expect those every game. He was routinely breaking big plays.  It seemed unrealistically good.

But I just looked and in 7 games he had 49 rushes - just 7 per game - and 36 receptions,  which is a reasonably sustainable 5 per game or 82 reception pace.  He had 4.8 yards per carry, and 4 tds in 7 games, which pro rates to 9 on the year,  which seems pretty reasonable in that offense.  

The potentially unsustainable part was his 10.7 yards per catch, which is more than Edelman has had some years.  That will likely regress,  but how much?  He could lose 3 yards a catch and "only" drop 2 ppg  - which would keep him among the top backs in points per game.  

There are real concerns with the injury, the Brady suspension,  and the injury history.  Those are priced in considering his ppg last year and his current adp.  There's also a risk because his upside seems capped.  How much higher can he move up the list?  Are we paying for the possibility that he repeats,  or for upside? 

But now I'm second guessing myself again.  We're only a couple years away from sproles being a rb1 in a similar role and a value pick in the 2nd/3rd.  Maybe Lewis is a value pick in the 4th/5th.  

 

[32 Counter Pass]

4/5 feels a little pricey for a RB I see filling KFaulk's role.

 

[Tool]

As I said originally, I expect Edelman's floor to drop but that he will still have value. Bennett is far greater than Hernandez, IMO, and will carve a large role. NE has wanted the dominant 2 TE offense for awhile now. I am quite sure Edelman will get his, but I'm betting he has some really bad weeks as well. And that is not factoring potential injuries or age. I don't put too much stock in those issues anyway, but true to the point of the post I will be avoiding Edelman at his price.

Not sure i can agree with anything in this post. 

 

[Biabreakable]

4/5 feels a little pricey for a RB I see filling KFaulk's role.

At pick 38 he is pushing for round 3 already. Dion Lewis has gone up 2 spots over the past couple days when I first started looking at this.

 

[Boston]

4/5 feels a little pricey for a RB I see filling KFaulk's role.

If that was his role I would agree with that...I absolutely loved Faulk but Lewis is a different type of player...he is not a third down back...Lewis is far more explosive than either Vereen or Faulk...neither of those guys were much of a threat to make a "take it to the house" play...that was an area where Vereen really disappointed fantasy-wise (and where I miscalculated his value)...that being said I don't blame anyone for being skeptical of Lewis due to injury concerns and I do think you have to be nervous about any Patriot RB with their recent history...you'd be foolish not to...that being said if Lewis is the same player he was last year I expect him to pick-up where he left off and get around 12-15 touches a game...looking at the Pats backfield he is their #1 RB...what that means game-to-game can change but IMO if he is healthy he will be producing...he is a legit talent who brings a dynamic the Pats have never had in the BB/Brady era...

 

[Ilov80s]

I love Dion's talent and have since Pitt. I thought he was the second coming of Marshall Faulk. The sad fact is he just can't stay healthy. I don't expect an ACL surgery to change things. He is still only 25, but damn is he snakebitten. 

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

tom rawls

elliot

 

[Deamon]

im confused, why two threads

 

[Arodin]

im confused, why two threads

Close reading of the titles, with a good fluency in colloquialism, reveals that they have diametrically opposite intents.

(Not that that makes it possible, with the title truncated in a browser tab, to tell which one you are reading at any given time...)

 

[Deamon]

Close reading of the titles, with a good fluency in colloquialism, reveals that they have diametrically opposite intents.

(Not that that makes it possible, with the title truncated in a browser tab, to tell which one you are reading at any given time...)

oh haha I see it now. 

 

[Evil G]

Down ON:

Dion Lewis...I have never seen so much being made of a guy with so little track record.  Combine this with the Patriots' and Belichick's record with RBs and I just cannot see what all the fuss is about.  

Carlos Hyde:...I actually acquired this guy in a Dynasty league, because the price was right, and I don't have a clue why the Dynasty ranks have him so high.  The Niners, while apt to run and dump a lot of quick passes, will probably finish 4-12 or worse.  They'll be throwing.  (I am down WITH Torrey Smith, hence)

Brady and Edelman:  the fade has to begin sometime, doesn't it?  I hope to live long enough to see Brady retire and I'm 45.  I know I'll never outlive that cheating *******...but if I somehow do, that will be my own Superbowl victory.  I'm down on him in, like, life. 

any Eagle: what a mess

Alshon and White:  these guys are gonna be good I admit...but I can't make heads nor tails of how they impact each other's value for 2016, or dynasty play

 

[FF Ninja]

ESPN splits show that Hopkins had 36/504/2 when Houston trailed by 9+ points. So apparently there is a 35 yard TD being counted by FBG that was when Houston was down by 8 or fewer points.

Anyway, using the ESPN splits, that means he had 75/1017/9 in situations when they were not trailing by multiple scores.

It looks like the Texans ran approximately 26% of their plays while trailing by 9+ points. Let's say the Texans cut that in half this season. Just applying the splits above results in the following:

• 75/1017/9 for 87% of the plays rather than 74% = roughly 88/1196/11 when not trailing by 9+ points
  
• 36/504/2 for 13% of the plays rather than 26% = 18/257/1 when trailing by 9+ points
  
• That totals to 106/1453/12... the TDs are perhaps suspect and likely the most volatile, so maybe those end up overestimated by this method. So let's drop it by 2 TDs to 106/1453/10.
  

Sure, that is a bit less than 111/1521/11, but it is a top 5 WR performance.

It is legit to wonder if his targets will be reduced, though those arguments could be potentially countered by arguing the quality of his targets could be better with better skill around him on offense, including (theoretically) at QB. Consider that Hopkins is known as a great route runner with good hands, but he only caught 58% of his targets last season; improved QB play and fewer double teams could easily mean a reduction in his targets is offset by improved production per target.

It is also a legit question to wonder if the Texans can truly cut the percentage of plays they run while trailing by 9+ points in half.

Regardless, I think the effect of garbage time on Hopkins' 2015 performance is likely being overestimated by some.

Is 9+ points what FBG uses for "trailing big"? I've been curious but never curious enough to do the digging to figure it out.

Either way, good post.

Keep in mind garbage time was just one aspect of my concern over Hopkins, so I don't think I was overestimating the impact - just noting that it is one of several things which could be different this year. With an improved running game (outside of Foster's 4 games, Houston had the worst RB corps in the league) I do expect Houston will be able to reduce their overall number of plays and their % of passing plays.

I think too much is being made of the supposed better skill players on offense. I'm not too optimistic about Fuller or Miller. And I know we all like to rag on Houston QBs, but keep in mind that Fitzpatrick (2014) and Hoyer (2015) both had QBR above 90. I don't expect Osweiller to top that, so I think the less coverage/better targets is being overblown. If Hopkins couldn't draw coverage from AJ in 2014, what are the chances Fuller is going to draw coverage from Hopkins in 2016? As I mentioned before, I seriously question if Fuller + Miller as rookies will even be as good as Nate Washington was last year. (FWIW, I really like Miller as a project - I just don't expect much from his rookie year).

I am curious, where are you projecting DHop to finish? Outside the top 12? Outside the top 24? 

I have started seeing this notion that DHop's target rate isn't sustainable and it reminded of what folks on this board used to say about Roddy White's game. Year after year Roddy would finish in the top 12 and the next off season we would see similar posts about his target rate being unsustainable. Yet White sustained those target rates, even with Julio's presence, until age caught up with him. 

Ha, no, not outside the top 24. But to be honest, I haven't ranked him. I don't do rankings. There are too many factors (floor, ceiling, injury risk, risk of QB busting, etc.) to fit players into one list. I've pretty much just got Hopkins off my radar because I know he'll be gone top 6-7 WR and I wouldn't touch him there. Also, I prefer auction over snake and I know I won't get anywhere near his bid price. So no need to spend a lot of time thinking about him - he's being drafted at (or above) his ceiling. He had 192 targets last year and finished WR6. His ADP is WR4.

If I had to guess right now, I'd probably put him somewhere in the WR12-13 range. I think 150 targets is a reasonable guess for 2016. That would've put him at WR8 last year, but assuming everyone is healthy for 16 games (Dez, Keenan) then 150 would likely be closer to WR10 which I think would yield a WR12-13 finish for Hopkins. If there are enough injuries to the top WRs then he could creep up the end-of-year rankings.

Roddy White is a good comp. In 2011 he led WRs in targets and finished WR8 in points. So I guess it all depends on if you can project Houston targets. With a new QB, upgraded RB, and two new offensive linemen, I just don't feel comfortable betting a first round pick (or 20%+ of my auction budget) on such an unstable situation. If the defense was bad then maybe, but the defense should actually be improved this year.

 

[Tau837]

Is 9+ points what FBG uses for "trailing big"?

ESPN splits don't use terms like "trailing big." They show splits for leading by 9-16 points, leading by 1-8 points, tied, trailing by 1-8 points, and trailing by 9-16 points. You can do the math to determine the numbers for leading or trailing by 17+ points or by 9+ points. I used 9+ points because it is two scores. I don't know what the FBG definition is, so not sure if it is apples to apples, but the numbers were obviously very close.

True garbage time would actually require more effort, since being down by 9+ points in the first quarter doesn't equate to garbage time.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Down ON:

Dion Lewis...I have never seen so much being made of a guy with so little track record.  Combine this with the Patriots' and Belichick's record with RBs and I just cannot see what all the fuss is about.  

Carlos Hyde:...I actually acquired this guy in a Dynasty league, because the price was right, and I don't have a clue why the Dynasty ranks have him so high.  The Niners, while apt to run and dump a lot of quick passes, will probably finish 4-12 or worse.  They'll be throwing.  (I am down WITH Torrey Smith, hence)

Regarding Lewis, "I just cannot see what all the fuss is about" seems like a stretch.  He was a top 5 RB last year before he got hurt.  Seems pretty easy to see what the fuss is about, even if you're worried about his or the Pats' track record.  What people are hoping he'll be is pretty easy to see.  The same thing he was last year.

Regarding Torrey Smith, the Niners were 5-11 last year.  The status quo for them was already trailing and throwing last year and he had a whopping 33 catches.  Trailing and throwing this year is not some new variable.  It's just maintaining the status quo that made him a useless WR last year and it's going to take much more than that to make him useful.