Sabertooth
Footballguy
In this post I'm going to break down CJ Spiller. Is he this guy? Or is he a borderline bust? I lot of how I break down an NFL player is opportunity based. I'm also a big believer in the rule of thumb
. Right now Fred Jackson is a fantasy stud. He's no doubt a very good player. He's so good in fact, that he's made Buffalo feel comfortable enough to send on former first rounder to Seattle, and another to the bench. A good assumption would be that he will continue to be good.
However, he's 30 folks. He might hit "the wall." He's carried the rock plenty the last two seasons with 459 combined carries.
Another possibility is that his play regresses back to where he's been the past two seasons.
Both of these plausible scenarios open the crack for C.J. Spiller to slip through. For the pennies on the dollar you can buy him for right now, he seems like a guy we might want to target.
Let's look at what he's done in Jackson's shadow this season.
Week 1 vs KC
1st touch - Off tackle run. Kept it inside for a nice little 7 yard gainer.
2nd touch - Designed screen to Spiller. Another nice run in traffic.
3rd touch - Play went right, Spiller took it outside for a non gainer. He probably could have netted a couple yards up inside.
4th touch - middle of second quarter. Spiller sent in to spell Jackson. Draw play out of the shotgun. Nothing there really. Announcers commented that Fitzpatrick told them that Jackson is the best blocker on third downs (mental note).
5th touch - middle of third quarter. Announcer praising Jackson for his falling forward type of style (mental note). Spiller comes in and goes down rather easily for a loss.
6th touch (watch it here)- TOUCHDOWN! with about 12 minutes left. Designed inside, Spiller breaks it out and has too much speed for the defenders to get to him. Dances in untouched on a play that Fred Jackson simply lacks the speed to make.
Week 2 vs Oakland
1st touch - after Jackson softens the Raiders up a bit with some nice runs, Spiller enters the game in shotgun set. Drag route over the middle, Spiller catches and advances it a few steps before Huff tackles him.
2nd touch - Off tackle run to the right. Spiller drags a DB for about three yards on his ankle. 7 yard gain showed some power.
3rd touch - right after turnover from Raiders, Spiller is sent out and rips off a 12 yard gainer. Designed outside run. He accelerates and get 12 yards before the defenders push him out.
4th touch - (Watch it here) - lined up with Jackson in same backfield out of the gun (backers to either side). Play fake to Jackson rushing left, Spiller swings around to the right and looked like he might get to paydirt. But tackled at the 7. You get a sense of his speed here. Note FBG has this classified as a run. It is a swing pass.
5th touch - designed run right. (Watch it here)He just patiently runs this and makes a nice cutback that nets him about 20 more yards because of his speed.
Week 3 vs. New England
1st touch - 8:26 Second Quarter - Screen pass. Nothing doing. Tackled immediately.
2nd touch - 3:32 Second Quarter - Little inside run up the gut on first down. 3 yards
Not used very much at all against the Pats.
Week 4 vs. Cincinatti
Not used at all in the first half. No touches until the final minute of third quarter.
1st touch - 0:48 third quarter - Draw play for three yards. Nothing impressive about it. Took what was there and went down easily.
2nd touch - Little drag route from Spiller who began his pattern lined up split out wide left.
3rd touch - Nice carry up the gut for a 1st down. Weaved through some traffic and got the needed yardage and then some.
4th touch - Kind of weird setup. Fred Jackson blocked but Spiller was lined up very deep and didn't do anything. Strange play.
Week 5 vs. Philadelphia
1st touch - Rush left side down inside the 10 yard line of the Eagles. Play designed to go up the gut, nothing there so Spiller used his speed to get to the edge for a nice 6 yard gain.
2nd touch - WR screen to Spiller that he got a few yards on. Caught the ball in space but didn't show a ton of quickness or elusiveness here. Run of the mill play.
3rd touch - Spiller got the handoff and eluded a defender immediately. He showed good burst to the outside and outran the next two guys. Maybe his best run of the one's I've reviewed. Show vision, elusiveness, and burst. Nice play when nothing was there initially. He didn't finish it though, choosing instead to step out uncontested.
4th touch - Shovel pass that was sniffed out immediately. He didn't do much with the ball and was wrapped up immediately.
Week 6 vs. New York Giants
1st touch - Split wide left. Little corner or drag route. He caught it and didn't do anything after the catch.
2nd touch - Five yard hitch. Tackled immediately after adjusting to the high throw. Not much opportunity to advance the ball.
3rd touch - Deeper crossing route here. Play action to Jackson, and later Fitz hit Spiller deep. His momentum carried him OOB, but he did get his feet down and made the catch with his hands. That's one thing I have noticed, he catches the ball away from his body. Shows some polish as a receiver.
4th touch - Split wide right. Deep comeback route that Spiller caught and then got wrestled OOB right away. Announcer mentions how he's seeing a lot of action at wideout.
5th touch - Split wide left this time. Another short curl route that he caught and gained maybe a yard or two after the catch on.
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One Guy's Opinion after Week 6
Spiller is playing up and down right now. He's got Jackson in front of him and that isn't going to change. But he's explosive and if Jackson's age catches up to him in any way, Spiller is going to get more touches.
Spiller no finds himself in the role of WR-RB. Which I think could have some upside. He's another player like McCluster who has speed and ball skills but isn't necessarily a good running back yet. Spiller doesn't seem to fight for extra yards at all and goes out of bounds a lot. He gets tackled easily too.
This hasn't change - you can get Spiller dirt cheap right now. He just turned 24 years old. His career arc reminds me of Darren McFadden's. If he continues down that path, he could be something special. If he doesn't?
No big deal, he's dirt cheap anyway. He could be a nice bye week guy in PPR. I could see him putting together just as good of receiving stats as any other Bills wideout not name Stevie.

However, he's 30 folks. He might hit "the wall." He's carried the rock plenty the last two seasons with 459 combined carries.
Another possibility is that his play regresses back to where he's been the past two seasons.
Both of these plausible scenarios open the crack for C.J. Spiller to slip through. For the pennies on the dollar you can buy him for right now, he seems like a guy we might want to target.
Let's look at what he's done in Jackson's shadow this season.
Week 1 vs KC
1st touch - Off tackle run. Kept it inside for a nice little 7 yard gainer.
2nd touch - Designed screen to Spiller. Another nice run in traffic.
3rd touch - Play went right, Spiller took it outside for a non gainer. He probably could have netted a couple yards up inside.
4th touch - middle of second quarter. Spiller sent in to spell Jackson. Draw play out of the shotgun. Nothing there really. Announcers commented that Fitzpatrick told them that Jackson is the best blocker on third downs (mental note).
5th touch - middle of third quarter. Announcer praising Jackson for his falling forward type of style (mental note). Spiller comes in and goes down rather easily for a loss.

6th touch (watch it here)- TOUCHDOWN! with about 12 minutes left. Designed inside, Spiller breaks it out and has too much speed for the defenders to get to him. Dances in untouched on a play that Fred Jackson simply lacks the speed to make.
Week 2 vs Oakland
1st touch - after Jackson softens the Raiders up a bit with some nice runs, Spiller enters the game in shotgun set. Drag route over the middle, Spiller catches and advances it a few steps before Huff tackles him.
2nd touch - Off tackle run to the right. Spiller drags a DB for about three yards on his ankle. 7 yard gain showed some power.
3rd touch - right after turnover from Raiders, Spiller is sent out and rips off a 12 yard gainer. Designed outside run. He accelerates and get 12 yards before the defenders push him out.
4th touch - (Watch it here) - lined up with Jackson in same backfield out of the gun (backers to either side). Play fake to Jackson rushing left, Spiller swings around to the right and looked like he might get to paydirt. But tackled at the 7. You get a sense of his speed here. Note FBG has this classified as a run. It is a swing pass.
5th touch - designed run right. (Watch it here)He just patiently runs this and makes a nice cutback that nets him about 20 more yards because of his speed.
Week 3 vs. New England
1st touch - 8:26 Second Quarter - Screen pass. Nothing doing. Tackled immediately.
2nd touch - 3:32 Second Quarter - Little inside run up the gut on first down. 3 yards

Not used very much at all against the Pats.
Week 4 vs. Cincinatti
Not used at all in the first half. No touches until the final minute of third quarter.
1st touch - 0:48 third quarter - Draw play for three yards. Nothing impressive about it. Took what was there and went down easily.
2nd touch - Little drag route from Spiller who began his pattern lined up split out wide left.
3rd touch - Nice carry up the gut for a 1st down. Weaved through some traffic and got the needed yardage and then some.
4th touch - Kind of weird setup. Fred Jackson blocked but Spiller was lined up very deep and didn't do anything. Strange play.
Week 5 vs. Philadelphia
1st touch - Rush left side down inside the 10 yard line of the Eagles. Play designed to go up the gut, nothing there so Spiller used his speed to get to the edge for a nice 6 yard gain.
2nd touch - WR screen to Spiller that he got a few yards on. Caught the ball in space but didn't show a ton of quickness or elusiveness here. Run of the mill play.
3rd touch - Spiller got the handoff and eluded a defender immediately. He showed good burst to the outside and outran the next two guys. Maybe his best run of the one's I've reviewed. Show vision, elusiveness, and burst. Nice play when nothing was there initially. He didn't finish it though, choosing instead to step out uncontested.
4th touch - Shovel pass that was sniffed out immediately. He didn't do much with the ball and was wrapped up immediately.
Week 6 vs. New York Giants
1st touch - Split wide left. Little corner or drag route. He caught it and didn't do anything after the catch.
2nd touch - Five yard hitch. Tackled immediately after adjusting to the high throw. Not much opportunity to advance the ball.
3rd touch - Deeper crossing route here. Play action to Jackson, and later Fitz hit Spiller deep. His momentum carried him OOB, but he did get his feet down and made the catch with his hands. That's one thing I have noticed, he catches the ball away from his body. Shows some polish as a receiver.
4th touch - Split wide right. Deep comeback route that Spiller caught and then got wrestled OOB right away. Announcer mentions how he's seeing a lot of action at wideout.
5th touch - Split wide left this time. Another short curl route that he caught and gained maybe a yard or two after the catch on.
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One Guy's Opinion after Week 6
Spiller is playing up and down right now. He's got Jackson in front of him and that isn't going to change. But he's explosive and if Jackson's age catches up to him in any way, Spiller is going to get more touches.
Spiller no finds himself in the role of WR-RB. Which I think could have some upside. He's another player like McCluster who has speed and ball skills but isn't necessarily a good running back yet. Spiller doesn't seem to fight for extra yards at all and goes out of bounds a lot. He gets tackled easily too.
This hasn't change - you can get Spiller dirt cheap right now. He just turned 24 years old. His career arc reminds me of Darren McFadden's. If he continues down that path, he could be something special. If he doesn't?

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