Who do you trust in defenses? (1 Viewer)

[e_room_matt]

I'm in a league that values defenses heavily (points, yards, sacks, TO's, etc.). A good day for a DST often makes them your highest scoring player.

There are always plenty of good defense available late in drafts, but I really can't afford to be wrong.

I don't have much confidence in any of the defenses except the Jets but don't won't pay the price to draft a defense that early.

Who do you trust and why?

 

[Donsmith753]

49ers. Did well last year and they now will face Bradford, Hasselback/Whitehurst and Leinart/Anderson.

That'll do for me. They're fairly cheap compared to Jets/Ravens etc.

 

[cr8f]

Packers - 2nd year under Capers should be better especially if Morgan Burnett is the starter. Raji will be starting as well.

Just looked and they are going 3rd.

I like the Niners and Chargers better considering their ADP. Chargers play Denver, KC and Oakland twice.

ADP

1. Jets, New York NYJ Def 105.52 23 229 131

2. Vikings, Minnesota MIN Def 138.86 53 248 125

3. Packers, Green Bay GBP Def 141.63 59 262 126

4. Eagles, Philadelphia PHI Def 146.47 58 267 123

5. Ravens, Baltimore BAL Def 153.08 68 331 123

6. Steelers, Pittsburgh PIT Def 153.41 65 336 121

7. 49ers, San Francisco SFO Def 158.95 39 244 123

8. Cowboys, Dallas DAL Def 176.00 91 317 121

9. Saints, New Orleans NOS Def 178.93 74 392 121

10. Chargers, San Diego SDC Def 190.89 95 365 117

11. Bears, Chicago CHI Def 193.65 96 393 119

12. Giants, New York NYG Def 199.32 92 435 114

13. Bengals, Cincinnati CIN Def 206.04 129 405 109

14. Patriots, New England NEP Def 214.83 133 395 94

15. Dolphins, Miami MIA Def 221.44 123 456 87

 

[KCC]

49ers. Did well last year and they now will face Bradford, Hasselback/Whitehurst and Leinart/Anderson.That'll do for me. They're fairly cheap compared to Jets/Ravens etc.

 

[e_room_matt]

I've had my eye on the Cowboys. They ranked #2 in points surrendered last year and #7 in sacks. Their turnovers and DTD's were crap, but those things are always unpredictable. If they keep the pressure up, those numbers should improve. Plus if their offense continues to increase in potentcy they'll be positioned for garbage time picks and sacks like the saints and colts.

The usual suspects of Steelers, Ravens, and Bears look to be around towards the later part of drafts. Any of them make your guys nervous?

 

[cobalt_27]

I've had my eye on the Cowboys. They ranked #2 in points surrendered last year and #7 in sacks. Their turnovers and DTD's were crap, but those things are always unpredictable. If they keep the pressure up, those numbers should improve. Plus if their offense continues to increase in potentcy they'll be positioned for garbage time picks and sacks like the saints and colts.The usual suspects of Steelers, Ravens, and Bears look to be around towards the later part of drafts. Any of them make your guys nervous?

As a Cowboys fan, I wouldn't be too bullish on them this year. The secondary, particularly at the safety position, is really sort of a mess. We're going to score a lot of points, but also give up a fair share, as well. Might turn into reasonable sack and INT numbers, but if your league deducts points from YA and PA, they could be a frustrating team to own on the defensive side of the equation.They won't be bad. I just wouldn't put them way high on the list.

 

[SSOG]

I'm a big fan of the "shotgun" approach. Ignore defenses entirely. Sometimes I won't even draft one, I'll use the spots on preseason gambles and then cut the failed gambles as the season approaches to add a defense off the street. No other position has greater variance from season to season. Just look at last year. In my scoring system, the Packers finished 1st, the 49ers were 3rd, the Saints were 6th, the Bengals/Cards/Bills/Broncos finished 10th/11th/12th/13th. These were all dumpster-dive defenses before the season started. In my dynasty league, there were 5 defenses on the street after preseason ended... and 3 of them were the Broncos, Bengals, and Saints (the other two were the Chiefs and the Rams). I think you're better off if you just don't commit any major resources to defenses, but grab a lot of high-upside units right before the season starts and be very flexible in the early weeks if a "bad" defense is playing hot.

 

[Timmay]

I like the Bengals defense this year. They have everyone coming back from a stellar year last year. They have an abundant amount of pass rushers with Odom coming back, Geathers, The freak of an athlete Michael Johnson, Carlos Dunlap, and Fanane. Zimmer likes to blitz, and you have one of the/ if not the best CB tandems in the league.

 

[e_room_matt]

I agree that defense is nearly as big of a crap shoot as kickers and I definately plan to be a free agent raider as soon as the regular season results present themselves. But defense is too important in this league to not give it an educated guess.

Vs their ADP, I appear to be lower on the Vikings and Eagles.

Anybody want to defend those two? Minn and Philly have pretty rough schedules.

 

[cr8f]

Jason Wood went here in a recent draft.

13.09San Francisco 49ers

SF

20.04San Diego Chargers

SD

 

[SSOG]

I guess it depends on the league. I don't want to dog your league but for Cincy to be available and Detroit be taken, something had to be wrong. And why were 27 defensive teams rostered in a 10 team league (assuming your dynasty league is the same one as in your sig)?? I also disagree that Cincy was a dumpster dive team before the season. They finished 12th in yards per game with an offense that couldn't stay on the field in 2008 and went draft heavy on D. They had all the signs of a breakout defensive year. But that's probably over analyzing your example a bit. For the most part, you are right. It is best to hold off until later, but I don't expect to find quality teams as free agents. It can happen but to plan on it is foolish. My keeper league has 21 roster spots. If a defense is decent then it likely won't hit the wire. If you play in a league with a short bench then by all means, play the matchup week to week. There should be 32-(number of teams) defenses available every week.

All it takes is for one person to believe in a defense for them to get picked up. I agree that I personally would have grabbed Cincy before Detroit. 8 of my other leaguemates likely would have felt exactly the same. The 9th was a huge fan of Jim Schwartz and was convinced that he was going to turn that unit around sooner rather than later. I would say he was dramatically overrating the impact a coach could have when he didn't have the talent in place but... well, look what Mike Nolan did in Denver last year. The reason 27 defenses are rostered in a 10-team league is because the benches are very deep (30 roster spots + IR, and we don't use kickers, which means we have roughly as many players rostered as a 12 team league with 27-man rosters + kicker requirements). Also, part of it is a reactionary thing. Most people were content to carry 2 defenses... until one guy got stuck with 2 terrible defenses and, in order to improve his odds of finding one that worked, he rostered 3 more. A couple of other guys added another defense when they saw the pool shrinking because they didn't want to be forced to pick up St. Louis if things went bad for them. That resulted in a mini-run on FA defenses until every single defense that people thought had a prayer of becoming good was rostered... and even that run on defenses left 3 defenses that wound up becoming good on the street. I wound up grabbing Arizona off the street later in the season, too. Which really just shows how BAD people are at predicting defensive performances.Even if defense is a very big part of your scoring system, the fact remains that people are terrible at predicting them, so some very good defenses will be available for you off the street. Guaranteed.

 

[JDub15]

You've got like the Bangles at their ADP as other posters have mentioned:

- Rey Maualuga is healthy, plus he's sober and in the best shape of his life. His DUI arrest has caused him to take football more seriously.

- They absolutely loaded up in the draft:

- DE Carols Dunlap - arguably the best all around DE fell because of character concerns

- DT Geno Atkins - pass rushing specialist - was dominate when he was on the field for Georgia - make Mike Iupati look like a fool during the senior bowl

- CB Brandon Ghee - nice talent bolsters their already impressive CB unit

Might be a candidate for DBC as their schedule seems to vacillate between though and easy offenses but notably they have the Browns twice, the Bucs, the Bills, the Dolphins, and the Jets.

I'd also consider the Cardinals which may sound crazy but:

- NFC West - Niners twice, Rams twice, Seahawks twice.

- AFC West - Oakland, Denver, KC

- Added a legit NT in Dan Williams and a legit edge rusher in Joey Porter, two things the defense never had

- D-line looks nasty, Dockett, Campbell, and now Williams.